The Rapid Response Institute

Tag: RBC

  • Can Machines Think?

    Can Machines Think?

    In 1950, the mathematician Alan Turing put forth this question.  Rather than attempt to answer it using conventional logic, he proposed a new disruptive model–the Imitation Game.

    The Problem

    One can look at Alan Turing (1912-1954) as the “father of theoretical computer science and artificial intelligence.”  His contributions to modern computer science cannot be understated.  He posited whether computers could one day have the cognitive capabilities of humans.  Some argue that day has arrived.  Yet, how do we know?

    The Turing Game

    The Imitation Game is played by three people (humans).

    (A) a Man,

    (B) a Woman, and

    (C) an Interrogator (of either gender)

    • The Interrogator, segregated into a separate room, is to determine which of the two players is the man and which is the woman.
    • The interrogator askes the two players (known only as “X and Y” or “Y and X”) a series of questions, the answers to which are written or passed through an intermediary so as not to expose the player’s gender.
    • The role of Player (B) is to assist (C) determine the gender of (A), while (A) is to deceive (C).

    However,

    • “What will happen when a machine takes the part of A in this game?  Will the interrogator decide wrongly as often when the game is played like this as he does when the game is played between a man and a woman?  These questions replace our original, Can Machines Think?“

    In his paper, Turing goes to elaborate in detail but for our purposes, the bottom line.

    Will the error rate from a human only decision process be the same as when a machine (digital decision maker) become one of the players?

    Early AI and the Turing Test

    In 1955, McCarthy and Shannon, along with Marvin Minsky and Nathaniel Rochester, defined the AI problem as, “that of making a machine behave in ways that would be called intelligent if a human were so behaving.  In 2013, when asked about Turing’s test in a taped interview, Minsky said, ‘The Turing test is a joke, sort of, about saying a machine would be intelligent if it does things that an observer would say must be being done by a human.’”   This materially connects the early definition of the AI problem to Turing’s test.

    Our intent here is not to split academic hairs but to put forth this concept that predates most readers and is typically not a subject of serious discussion.  The point being that the problem was documented 75 years ago or earlier and this pioneering thinking is the basis of our contemporary definition and implementation of Artificial Intelligence.

    Before Turing

    In one sense, we all stand on the shoulders of giants who preceded us.  “When you think about the origins of computer science, the name Ada Lovelace might not come to mind immediately—but it should.  Born in 1815, Ada Lovelace was an English mathematician and writer whose visionary work laid the foundation for modern computing.  Collaborating with Charles Babbage (considered to be the father of computing), the inventor of the Analytical Engine, Lovelace wrote what is widely recognized as the first algorithm designed for a machine.”

    “Ada was the first to explicitly articulate this notion and in this she appears to have seen further than Babbage.  She has been referred to as ‘prophet of the computer age‘.  Certainly, she was the first to express the potential for computers outside mathematics.”  In the computer Familia, we might also want to think of her as the grandmother of computing.

    Other women who played a major role in the evolution of Artificial Intelligence (after Turing) include Navy Rear Admiral Grace Hopper, the inventor of the first compiler for a programming language as well as other innovations.  Many others made significant contributions.  No doubt women will continue to play a vital role with this game changing technology.

    The Solution(s)

    Twelve years have passed since Minsky’s statement that the Turing test is a joke.  Today’s artificial intelligence capability has changed that landscape.

    The argument becomes, not can ‘we’ meet the Turing test, but how far and fast will it be eclipsed.  This suggests exciting times with associated challenges and risks.

    Contemporary Thinking about the Test

    “As AI systems are increasingly deployed in high-stakes scenarios, we may need to move beyond aggregate metrics and static benchmarks of input–output pairs, such as the Beyond the Imitation Game Benchmark (BIG-bench). We should be prepared to evaluate an AI’s cognitive abilities in a way that resembles the realistic settings in which it will be used.  This can be done with modern Turing-Like Tests.”  As shown in the following figure.

    “Looking ahead, Turing-like AI testing that would introduce machine adversaries and statistical protocols to address emerging challenges such as data contamination and poisoning.  These more rigorous evaluation methods will ensure AI systems are tested in ways that reflect real-world complexities, aligning with Turing’s vision of sustainable and ethically guided machine intelligence.”

    Computer Game Bot Turing Test

    “The computer game bot Turing test is a variant of the Turing test, where a human judge viewing and interacting with a virtual world must distinguish between other humans and video game bots, both interacting with the same virtual world. This variant was first proposed in 2008 by Associate Professor Philip Hingston of Edith Cowan University, and implemented through a tournament called the 2K BotPrize.”

    This pundit believes that the Turning test dam has been broken, and greater things lie ahead.

    Today’s Father of AI – Geoffrey Hinton, The Nobel Prize in Physics 2024

    “When we talk about artificial intelligence, we often mean machine learning using artificial neural networks. This technology was originally inspired by the structure of the brain.  In an artificial neural network, the brain’s neurons are represented by nodes that have different values.  In 1983–1985, Geoffrey Hinton used tools from statistical physics to create the Boltzmann machine, which can learn to recognize characteristic elements in a set of data.  The invention became significant, for example, for classifying and creating images.”

    Together with John J. Hopfield, they used physics to find patterns in information.  Dr. Hinton has expressed some concerns regarding his (AI) child as he states in the following interview from October 9, 2023.

    Theoretical Basis of Tests

    In this pundit’s opinion, the Turing test used Game Theory as a fundamental underpinning.  A later theory, Relationships, Behaviors and Conditions enables newer derivatives of the original Turing Test as well as supports different approaches to the problem.  These theories are briefly described.

    Finally, it is not necessary to read this section, as these details are provided for completeness and to support the position taken.  We understand that this level of detail is not for every reader.

    Over the past few years, there has been an impassioned argument regarding ‘The Science.”  We addressed this issue in 2020, and the following paragraph is taken from that Blog, They Blinded Me with Science.

    “According to Scientific American, Scientific claims are falsifiable—that is, they are claims where you could set out what observable outcomes would be impossible if the claim were true—while pseudo-scientific claims fit with any imaginable set of observable outcomes.  What this means is that you could do a test that shows a scientific claim to be false, but no conceivable test could show a pseudo-scientific claim to be false.

    Sciences are testable, pseudo-sciences are not.”

    There is academic peer reviewed agreement that both Game Theory and RBC hypotheses are testable.

    Game Theory

    Concurrent with Turing’s Imitation Game development, game theory was being formalized as an approach towards economic behavior modeling among economic ‘rational’ actors.

    “Game theory emerged as a distinct subdiscipline of applied mathematics, economics, and social science with the publication in 1944 of Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, a work of more than six hundred pages written in Princeton by two Continental European emigrés, John von Neumann, a Hungarian mathematician and physicist who was a pioneer in fields from quantum mechanics to computers, and Oskar Morgenstern, a former director of the Austrian Institute for Economic Research.  They built upon analyses of two-person, zero-sum games published in the 1920s.”  This treatise was developed from the works of other pioneers of the 1920s and 1930s.

    An interesting side note, “The software industry is a little over half a century old (in 2005), but its roots date back to the textile loom programming of the seventeenth century that powered the Charles Babbage Difference Engine. In 1946, ENIAC (Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer), the first large-scale general-purpose electronic computer built at the University of Pennsylvania, ushered in the modern computing era.

    That same year (1946), John von Neumann coauthored a paper, Preliminary Discussion of the Logical Design of an Electronic Computing Instrument.  The von Neumann general purpose architecture defines the process of executing a continuous cycle of extracting an instruction from memory, processing it, and storing the results has been used by programmers ever since.“(1) 

    Perhaps, this is part of the collision of the two major breakthroughs: Game Theory and the modern Computer Architecture.

    In 1996, this author’s doctoral dissertation, Cross Cultural Negotiations between Japanese and American Businessmen: A Systems Analysis, (Exploratory Study) was “An exploratory test of this framework in the context of two-person zero-sum simulated negotiation between Japanese businessmen and American salesmen, both living and working in the United States.  The integration of structural (game theory) and process theories (RBC) into a dynamic systems model seeks to better understand the nature of complex international negotiations.  Advanced statistical techniques, such as structural equation modeling are useful tools providing insight into these negotiation dynamics.”

    This work is the basis for the Cloud based Serious Games used to train Cross Cultural Teams.

    Relationships, Behaviors and Conditions (RBC) Framework

    This model has been part of numerous this pundit’s writings since 1996.  A brief overview from a 2011 article follows.

    “The Relationships, Behaviors, and Conditions (RBC) model was originally developed to address issues around cross cultural (international) negotiation processes.   Relationships are the focal point of this perspective, reflecting commonality of interest, balance of power and trust as well as intensity of expressed conflict.

    Behavior in this model is defined as a broad term including multidimensions – intentional as well as unintentional.  Finally, Conditions are defined as active and including circumstances, capabilities and skills of the parties, culture, and the environment.  Of course, time is a variable in this model as well.

    One key feature of the R B C Framework is its emphasis on interactive relationships while providing an environment for multiple levels of behavioral analysis. This makes it a useful tool to better understand the new regulatory processes currently unfolding.  As we will see later, the number of constituents now engaged belays the use of simplistic linear decision models.”(2)

    Operational Excellence

    The following excerpt from our 2017 Blog, Excellent Behaviors: Assessing Relationships in the Operational Excellence Ecosystem addresses the role of the RBC Framework in organizational excellence.

    “One of the hot business buzzwords of 2017 is “Operational Excellence.” It has been the subject for many pundits, including this one.

    In October and November we published a two-part series, Assuring Operational Excellence from Contractors and Their Subcontractors through BTOES Insights.  Each part included a link to additional information.

    The October edition featured an excerpt of our Implementing a Culture of Safety book. In the November edition we released our new Best Practice solution, Attaining & Sustaining Operational Excellence: A Best Practice Implementation Model. We are proud to make it available herein and in general.

    One of the basic tenets of the RBC Framework is the general construct that Relationships cannot be determined a priori.  The well-used example is a man and a woman sitting on a bench at a bus stop.  Are they married, siblings, coworkers, friends or simply two people waiting to catch the same/different bus?

    Their relationship cannot be known directly. However, their Behaviors will provide insight into how they relate to each other.  Romantic behavior may indicate marriage, dating, an affair etc.  They may still be coworkers but most likely are not strangers.

    The third dimension, Conditions (environment) can be considered the stage upon which behaviors play.  So, what does this have to do with Operational Excellence?

    Another component of our digital environment is Human Systems Integration (HSI). In our forthcoming book, we have defined HSI as, “Human Systems Integration (HSI) considers the following seven domains: Manpower, Personnel, Training, Human Factors Engineering, Personnel Survivability, Habitability, and Environment, Safety and Occupational Health (ESOH).  In simple terms, HSI focuses on human beings and their interaction with hardware, software, and the environment.”

    We have crossed the Turing Rubicon.  How will your organization capitalize on these Opportunities?

    Hardcopy References

    1. Shemwell, Scott M. (2005). Disruptive Technologies—Out of the Box. Essays on Business and Information Technology Alignment Issues of the Early 21st Century. New York: Xlibris. p. 127.

    2. _______ (2011, January). The Blast Heard Around the World. Petroleum Africa Magazine. pp. 32-35.

    Pre order our new book

    Navigating the Data Minefields:

    Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making

    We are living in an era of data and software exponential growth.  A substantive flood hitting us every day.  Geek heaven!  But what if information technology is not your cup of tea and you may even have your kids help with your smart devices?  This may not be a problem at home; however, what if you job depends on Big Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI)?

    Available April 2025

    Ordering Information

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is the coauthor of the 2023 book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be released by CRC Press in April 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross-Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg and his book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • The Transformation of Our Spreadsheet Society

    The Transformation of Our Spreadsheet Society

    “The only rules are the ones dictated by the laws of physics.  Everything else is a recommendation.”  — Walter Isaacson/Elon Musk

    We live in a spreadsheet society.  Columns of Categories of People and Rows of Wants, Needs, and Desires.  This model is too simplistic.  What is needed, and Big Data can provide, is a more sophisticated approach.

    This spreadsheet approach was shown in the recent US elections to be detrimental to the party mainly depending on this view of society.  How many times did we hear pollsters opine that X percent of a certain population was voting for one candidate vs. the other?  The categories of people were divided along traditional lines.  This whole model was shattered on November 2, 2024, and likely some providers of data in this format may no longer be in business for the next cycle.

    However, this belief system is not limited to the political class.  We all can fall into this stereotype.

    For decades we have been taught that data categories can be captured under a Normal Distribution (Bell) Curve of a category and row of interest, i.e., the distribution of the height of a class of male senior high school students or SAT scores.  Another more relevant example, retailers’ pertinacious obsession with the 18–34-year-old group.

    These are fairly simple models, and in this Blogger’s opinion, this representation rarely works anymore, if it ever did.  For example, the resulting retail sector inventory overages as a result of dependencies on this gross data model are not an effective return on shareholder value.  Other recent missteps based on faulty interpretation of the customer/prospect base include the Bud Lite advertising fiasco and the Target marketing failure.

    It is ok to make marketing mistakes, that is going to happen.  The problem with these two (and other) campaigns is the analysis of risk, return, etc. was likely shallow or mathematically primitive.

    There are ways to appeal to new consumers without alienating a large existing base.  It’s all in the big numbers.

    There are several validated models of human behavior and we will discuss two of them herein, Maslow’s Hierarchy and the Relationships, Behaviors, Conditions model.  Some readers may prefer others, and they will most likely work within this construct as well.

    Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs

    This perspective on human needs and subsequent behaviors dates back to the 1940s.  As shown, it consists of five steps from survival to the ultimate Self Actualization.  Note that we adapt this model in two ways.  First, we view this as a growth process as opposed to five discrete steps.  Additionally, the bottom two lower ranges focus mostly on the physical issues we all face.  Fundamental survival and security both physically, mentally, emotionally and spiritually.  Once we have attained, sustained, and believe, we are ready to transition towards an end game, “the realization or fulfillment of one’s talents and potentialities, especially considered as a drive or need present in everyone.”

    Next, we will discuss how we can use this and the RBC solutions to realize specific and measurable value that changes this dynamic.

    The color gradient is meant to reflect that this journey is a process and often each field begins slowly before accelerating into the next range.

    Another perspective of each the Five Platforms consists of a number of smaller steps, which when assessed using Integral Calculus, generates a continuum.

    Relationships, Behaviors, and Conditions (RBC)

    The following is taken from our Cross-Cultural Online Game site:

    The RELATIONSHIPS, BEHAVIORS, and CONDITIONS (RBC) model was originally developed to address issues around cross cultural (international) negotiation processes.   As shown in the figure, Relationships are the focal point of this perspective, reflecting commonality of interest, balance of power and trust as well as intensity of expressed conflict.  Behaviors in this model is defined as a broad term including multi-dimensions and intentional as well as unintentional.  Finally, Conditions are defined as active and including circumstances, capabilities and skills of the parties, culture, and the environment.  Of course, Time is a variable in this model as well.

    Moreover, we have defined Behavioral Economics as “the decision-making model that incorporates societal, cultural, emotions and other human biases into the process as opposed to the classic rational economic actor.

    One key feature of the R B C Framework is its emphasis on interactive relationships while providing an environment for multiple levels of behavioral analysis.   This makes it a useful tool to better understand the new Big Data/AI processes currently unfolding.

    The following graphic is a derivative of our Cross-Cultural Interactions model.  It is a peer reviewed model and is a very good way to calibrate interactions.  Additional information is available on the above link.

    This author has long believed that we do not live in a linear or mathematically deterministic world.  A strong belief in stochastic, matrices drive much of my thinking.  This is reflected in the figure on the left.  The RBC model is the foundation for the five parties and their collective Behaviors.  The resulting Relationships range from one-on-one to small groups or in some cases a wide and varied constituency.

    Note that there is an Ecosystem, (something, such as a network of businesses, considered to resemble an ecological ecosystem especially because of its complex interdependent parts) associated with each entity other that the individuals’ who are the other four.

    This is a wide array of influences on any given individual.  Not easily measured, linearly!

    Scientific Method

    Most readers are familiar with how science has been brought into bolster the position of pundits/advocates of policy, especially related to Covid-19.  The word is tossed around casually, as if most who use it know what they are talking about.  Spoiler Alert–Most Do Not! This includes some with advanced technical or medical bona fides.

    Most think that by using the word ‘science’ this assessment process is out of their wheelhouse.  Previously, we argued that there is a layperson’s approach that works fine for most of our daily needs.  Details can be found on our Blog, They Blinded Me with Science.

    For space reasons, this (guidelines) model will not be repeated here but check it out, it is a short read.

    The late Nobel Laureate, Richard Feynman has a brief and layperson-oriented presentation on the Scientific Method.  He is an excellent teacher, and this clip is informative as well as entertaining.

     “If it disagrees with experiment, its wrong”—Richard Feynman

    Human Input Still Needed

    To be clear, pollsters and marketers will still need to ask questions that will also help structure the model, but the processes posited herein can change the weighting processes driving toward equilibrium and Pareto Optimality (Pareto efficiency implies that resources are allocated in the most economically efficient manner but does not imply equality or fairness) in the final analysis.  In other words, higher quality results.

    These numbers can also be seen as ‘first value’ in a simulation.  Another way to look at this is to the logic the Turing (Bombe) Machine of World War II.  Not setting a number as itself.

    Then AI can take the model to the next level and provide pollsters/marketers with real, modern solutions.  Finally, other uses will most likely be derivatives of this solution.

    The Data Management Problem

    We have identified a general problem as well as three valid and reliable theories.  This is only a nice discussion without relevance with Valid, Reliable, and Timely (VRT) data.  Data Management has been a problem as long as there has been data, stone, paper or electronic.  It has always been an issue.  “Herman Hollerith is given credit for adapting the punch cards used for weaving looms to act as the memory for a mechanical tabulating machine, in 1890.”  Much later (circa 1950s) digital database management schemas emerged.  Today, we are flooded by data of all types including telemetry and deliberately false data/information.

    How can this be effectively managed and how can an executive without a technology background survive much less thrive in such an environment?

    For decades, this author has been involved in almost all computer system development from the yellow punch tape of the 1960s until today.  There have been several constants over that period.

    One of the biggest chronic challenges has been database management; from the acquisition of data through its life cycle until achieve.  An outcome of poor data management has been decisions that have even led to the demise of firms, along with tens of thousands (if not more) of suboptimal decisions at the expense of shareholder value (bottom line/stock price).  What makes the current crop of Big Data/Artificial Intelligence advocates any smarter than those who came before?  Nothing!  Unless some things are changed.

    Our forthcoming book to be published by CRC Press in 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).  The following and other managerial action items are developed in detail.

    • How to determine the quality of the data and its relevance to the decision-making processes.
    • Current Challenges and Trends in Big Data and associated applications.
    • Proposed organization structure such as High Reliability Organization and an understanding of Human Factors to fully realize the full and measurable economic value from these technologies.
    • A full set of Risk Mitigation and a Governance model including Disaster Recovery and Cyber Security.
    • How these technologies are used in Operations, a proposed Management System as well as numerous Case Studies across a number of industries and types of problems.

    The challenge of managing this suite of emerging AI/Big Data is daunting and one that cannot be dodged or delegated.  How organizations respond can be the difference between success or the destruction of shareholder value.

    It’s The Data Stupid

    Our pollsters are collecting and analyzing data that are self-reported.

    • A questionnaire is developed which may or may not reflect bias.
    • These questions are posed to potential respondents (phone and otherwise) who may detect a voice tone, and/or the subject may intentionally lie or mislead.
    • Finally, who answers the phone these days?  This skews the data sample and perhaps badly.

    Data collected in this manner is not subject to rigor and most likely wrong or skewed.  Finally, data collected in this manner is not suitable for the new Big Data Analytic models.

    One Proposed Better Way

    There are probably several much better ways to address political and marketing problems.  While no data source is perfect, we posit the following way to use the US Census data.  We can treat it as a function of columns and rows yet apply sophistical data analysis algorithms.

    Categories

    As mentioned, we tend to clump or stereotype individuals into preconceived ‘buckets.’  Over time, these buckets have taken on an aura of, it’s the only way.  Basically, the construct that ‘we have always done it this way.’
     
    This is no longer a viable business or social model.  Our world is much too dynamic for the older static approach to targeting the likelihood of a specific demographic to perform in a preconceived prescriptive manner.
     
    One place to start looking is at the United States Census data.  This data set consists of 57 profiles, The United States and each State and Territory.  Each Profile is divided into several Sub-Categories, Populations and People, Income and Poverty, Education, Employment, Housing, Health, Business and Economy, Race and Ethnicity, and Nearby States.  Each Sub-Category is further detailed.
     
    We might even call the data in these Categories/Sub-Categories, Conditions from the RBC model.  Each Platform in Maslow’s Hierarchy can be considered a Category with infinite Sub-Categories.  Likewise, Conditions.

    Rows

    We have identified the following three variable model as representative of human Behaviors–Wants, Needs, and Desires.  We have previously reviewed some of this in our Blog, Want – Like – Need  in 2019.  These can also be mapped to Behaviors in both the RBC and Maslow models.
     
    Details and a short list of some variables follow.  These definitions can overlap, and readers will note that there is some duplication across all three classes below.  Researchers use different definitions for each class.  This does not detract from the fundamentals of Rows selected for analysis.  
    The point is to develop a list of behaviors that is indicative of the problem to be solved.

    Wants

    For purposes of this model, we define Want as something that an individual might seek as part of normal life, i.e., and ice cream cone.

    Needs

    Those fundamentals of life, especially as defined in Maslow’s Hierarchy, platforms one and two.

    Desires

    Different from Wants, Desires are perhaps beyond his/her reach.  Coveting a promotion and willing to back stab co-workers to get it rather than compete on merit.

    Sources of Wants, Needs, and Desires

    We have suggested that a starting point for Categories is the very large US Census database.  No such singular source exists for these behaviors and there is an overlap in definitions.  This list gives readers a starting point.  In no particular order, this non-comprehensive includes:

    The list goes on, but readers get the point.  A large row of behaviors will help develop a robust model.

    And The Answer Is

    While we know that the solution to the political pollster and/or marketing manager is not a definitive answer, we can do better than we are.  We know how to management data in this environment and we have models for assessing and making decisions based on results.  As we move from simple, small data set, linear models to robust Big Data Analysis, we need to consider a few additional action items.

    Scientific Method

    Do not forget to use this methodology to define and refine your problem statement.

    Model Limits

    • While we are using a significant number of independent and dependent variables, we are not trying to solve world hunger.  Therefore, we need to put limits on (Bound) the model.  This is an age-old problem we first addressed in 2015, Bounding the Boundless.
    • From a scientific perspective, “Across all science, modelling is our most powerful tool, as models let us focus on the few details that matter most, leaving many others aside.  Models also help reveal the typically far-from-intuitive consequences when multiple causal factors act in combination.”
    • Additionally, “Getting AI/ML/DL systems to work has been one of the biggest leaps in technology in recent years, but understanding how to control and optimize them as they adapt isn’t nearly as far along.  These systems are generally opaque if a problem develops in the field.  There is little or no visibility into how algorithms are utilized, or how weights that determine their behavior will change with a particular use case or interactions with other technology.”
    • Moreover, “the European Union this week (2021) issued guidelines for AI — specifically including ML and automated decision-making systems — limiting the ability of these systems to act autonomously, requiring ‘secure and reliable systems software,’ and requiring mechanisms for ensuring responsibility and accountability for AI systems and their outcomes.”

    Diminishing Returns

    Since we are not boiling the ocean, at some point continuing with the model will result reduced performance.  According to Economists, “The law of diminishing returns says that, if you keep increasing one factor in the production of goods (such as your workforce) while keeping all other factors the same, you’ll reach a point beyond which additional increases will result in a progressive decline in output.  In other words, there’s a point when adding more inputs will begin to hamper the production process.”

    “Data is just a way of codifying information. Any data gathered should be relevant to a problem, otherwise useless data clouds the results of a query.  If there are too many degrees of freedom, you are begging for a spurious correlation.”

    Readers may be familiar with, “The Pareto Principle, also known as the 80-20 rule, is a concept that many have adopted for their life and time management.  It is the idea that 20% of the effort, or input, leads to 80% of the results or output.  The point of this principle is to recognize that most things in life are not distributed evenly.”  This may be a satisfactory approach to this application.
     

    Need for a Data Scientist

    This approach may require the use of a professional data scientist to realize a valid and reliable outcome.  “A data scientist is an analytics professional who is responsible for collecting, analyzing and interpreting data to help drive decision-making in an organization.  The data scientist role combines elements of several traditional and technical jobs, including mathematician, scientist, statistician and computer programmer.  It involves the use of advanced analytics techniques, such as machine learning and predictive modeling, along with the application of scientific principles.  As part of data science initiatives, data scientists often must work with large amounts of data to develop and test hypotheses, make inferences and analyze things such as customer and market trends, financial risks, cybersecurity threats, stock trades, equipment maintenance needs and medical conditions.”

    More

    This is not a definitive list and is provided to give readers an understanding of what it will take to move forward with the Big Data Analysis model.  Appropriate research and problem definition may reveal additional or fewer requirements.

    Demise of Linear

    The Linear broadcast approach to selling or changing minds is not the relevant delivery vehicle for new micro-data analysis.  Directed notifications is better although practice this with care.  This last election cycle, I received a text, words to the effect, “can we count of your vote for X?”  I was very much against X and no reason was offered to help me change my mind.  Get with the program and don’t be so lazy developing your spiel or message.

    Elon Musk’s ‘Algorithm’

    This is an interesting approach to problem solving that can have relevance to the issue discussed herein.  Can we reduce complexity without losing data fidelity, “The accuracy, completeness, consistency, and timeliness of data.  In other words, it’s the degree to which data can be trusted to be accurate and reliable.”

    His Five Step Process:

    1. Question Every Requirement

    2. Delete Any Part or Process You Can

    3. Simplify and Optimize

    4. Accelerate Cycle Time

    5. Automate

    Readers may ask, how does this fit in this discussion?  We bring this to your attention because it may help identify and bound the problem to be solved.

    Also, perhaps of some value is his, “idiot index, which calculated how much more costly a finished product was than the cost of its basic materials.  If a product had a high idiot index, its cost could be reduced significantly by devising more efficient manufacturing techniques.”  A survey, analysis, etc. are all products and may benefit from this index model.

    Final Thoughts

    Most financial professionals will tell you that spreadsheets must foot (the sum of all rows must equal the sum of all columns).  Can societies or multiple societies foot their columns and rows?  Most likely not and if that is the case, data from this model is not valid or reliable.

    Most likely, this type of data will take the form of a Scatter Diagram (without correlation?) with some clumps or areas of intensity of a specific category or group of categories.

    This may not be an approach that many will take; however, it is clear that the original premise of this piece, that we live in a spreadsheet society is no longer appropriate.  “If you always do what you always did, you will always get what you always got.” ― Albert Einstein.  It will be interesting to see how future polling is conducted.

    Non-Linear Speed Ahead

    Sometimes pieces like this summarize a conclusion.  In the high-pressure environment, we are not concluding anything.  We are carving a way forward–A Growth Model of the Data Economy.

    As of this writing the incoming US administration appears to be moving at hyper speed across a broad front.  Moreover, AI in particular exploding.  Those interested in keeping up may want to to Subscribe | Generative’s AI Newsletter (not an endorsement but seems be a good daily source of information).  Mostly, just keeping up will not be enough, if top quartile success is the goal.

    It will be interesting to see the role the family of Artificial Intelligence (AI) software solutions play in this field going forward.

    Micro-targeting is certainly a place for Big Data to shine.  That said the problem to be solved and the confidence in the validity and reliability of the data must ascertained. 

    Society faces some real challenges with how we manage, analyze and decide using data.  This is but one example where old methods no longer produce valid and reliable results.  How will you and your organization go forward?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the recently published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be published by CRC Press in 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

    Copyright © 2024 The Rapid Response Institute LLC.  All rights reserved.

  • What Does ‘Systemic’ Actually Mean?

    What Does ‘Systemic’ Actually Mean?

    The word Systemic is tossed around quite loosely these days.  Especially when discussing social issues and politics.

    But what does it really mean when we say something is systemic by nature?  By one definition it is, “Of or relating to a system or a system and other relating to or affecting the entire body or an entire organism.”  Indeed a broad judgement.

    So when we say an entire nation is a systemically ‘blank blank,’ does that include the prognosticator that is making that statement?  Are those caught in the cross hairs of a so called systemic belief equally feel the same way about all other groups?  Not bloody likely as my Brit buddies say.

    How Do We Define a System?

    One definition of the word includes the world or universe.  Typically, we think of something smaller and ‘bounded.’  What do we mean by bounded?  Readers might be surprised that this term is a mathematical term describing a function, sequence or variation of a function.  In layman’s terms, systems have limits whether the human body, an organization, or society.

    Systems also have ecosystems and are not all organic in and of them selves and they interact with other systems.  For example, a commercial firm has suppliers and customers as well as local governments and even media outlets.

    Therefore, complexity is an inherent components and human constituents to ALL systems.  This stands by reason in our very robust and diverse world today.

    As such human behavior can take many different decision paths regarding any given issue.  We discuss these causal affects in our 2017 piece, Excellent Behaviors: Assessing Relationships in the Operational Excellence Ecosystem.

    It Is Not That Easy

    Defining the systemic nature of any system is very difficult.  NO system can be defined by one word.  Systems are complex sets of moving interdependent parts whose boundary is often ill defined.

    Decision makers must assure they are using valid and reliability data as they define the problem they are trying to solve.  Without such preparation, the answer put forth may be incorrect or meaningless.

    Next time a colleague or pundit is tossing around the word ‘systemic’ as them what they mean and when they say it means ALL, ask them how do they know that?

    In and of itself the term is meaningless.  Without a detailed definition of the system being discussed, good decisions are not possible and most likely will be poorly implemented with predictable results.

    So if you believe a system is a mess, how do you go about fixing?  Methodical or emotional?  One will work better that the other approach.

    What do you mean when you say something is systemic?

    If you need help with your complex system, see below and contact us.

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the just published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • At the Precipice?

    At the Precipice?

    On October 8, 2021, we posted the blog, Welcome to the 70s–Again!  The point that the awful economy of that decade could return.  It seems that one year later, those comments have come true.  Many are now freely comparing out contemporary time to that period before most adults were born.  This Baby Boomer graduated from college in 1970s and ‘enjoyed’ the full economic Stagflation experience and it was not pretty and definitely not fun.

    However, increasing global events, especially from Europe and Asia beg the question, Are we entering the 1930s again?  Seeming sinister forces both internal to the United States and global are conspiring to wreck havoc if we are not careful.  Even the word, World War  III is being ‘loosely’ tossed about by various journalists and pundits.

    On top of all these daily headlines, we are told the planet is in peril.  However, the trillions and trillions of dollars necessary do to seem to be available.  “Damned if I do, damned if I don’t.”

    What to Do?

    Geopolitical Risk is not a new concept.  Organizations have been dealing with it for many millenniums.  As always, the race goes to the best economic players.  Agile, Smart, and Decisive continue to play a big role in the success of organization live and even thrive in hard times.

    R B C

    We have long been advocates of the Relationship(s), Behavior(s), Condition(s) model first put forth to research International Negotiations by Stephen Weiss in 1993.  It is a good construct to assess behavioral changes based on situational (conditions) changes, even transformation.  Which results in changes in relationships including adding new and dropping existing.

    Interested readers can search this website, there are 14 blogs on this subject in our Critical Mass series.

    Pressure Cooker

    No one can predict the future but it is abundantly clear there a  lot of pressures on business and people in general.  This writer is not as sure that new behavioral tools are as necessary as good old fashion Leadership!  For executives, the adage, “Lead, Follow or Get Out of the Way” is applicable today as it ever was. 

    Finally, with so many mounting and rapidly changing Conditions, a constant review and assessment is in order.  For example, in the last period of great inflation, successful companies conducted ongoing review of their pricing and cost structures.

    How are You Leading Your Team/Organization/Family in these Trying Times?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more insight regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our recent blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give us a shout. 

  • What We’ve Got Here is Failure to Communicate!!

    What We’ve Got Here is Failure to Communicate!!

    “The single biggest problem in communication is the illusion that it has taken place.”

    George Bernard Shaw

    The 1967 movie Cool Hand Luke, popularized the term, “What we’ve got here is failure to communicate.”  The American Film Institute lists this statement as number 11 out of the top 100 movie quotes.  The basis of this exchange is the prisoner in a Florida prison camp, refusing a guard’s continual demands.

    Clash of Titans

    In our 1994 presentation, Organizational Conflict and Dispute Resolution we positioned Diversity as a Function of Culture.  Another way to look at this is a function of ‘tension at the margin.’  We defined this term as, “Stress between competing bodies—the engine of power.”  The idiom was derived from the Pressure Differential in powerful weather events such as hurricanes.  The blog went on state, “Humans constantly deal with this phenomenon and sometimes the stress caused by this dichotomy can seem to be overwhelming.  Sometimes, it seems this powerful internal engine races without a governor.”  Sometimes, cultural clashes seem to have these same titanic properties.

    Cultural Governance

    This pundit has a somewhat different opinion on ESG than typically featured in the media.  This framework is only a set of standards that responsible firms have been using for years.  We addressed this issue in June 2005 in the piece, The Corporate Bar is Raised! which is a chapter in our 2011 book, Essays on Business and Information II: Maximizing Organizational Performance.

    The final paragraph in the piece states, “The linkage between robust embracement of strong governance and shareholder rights coupled with transparency and dispatch when things go badly will provide strong positive sustainability.  The corporate bar is raised, but isn’t this where it should have been all along?”  How is this any different than current ESG models?

    Governance sets a framework as well as an ethical methodology for advancing competing positions.  In one sense collaboration is the ultimate goal as the intent of the whole is to maximize success.  Governance models that are not aligned with that goal are sub-optimal.

    R B C

    There is a great deal of discussion about Energy Transformation today.  It is not only a political football but many consulting and technology company are pushing their products and solutions.  No doubt some of dubious value.  All parties have an agenda!

    The word transformation suggests that the current Condition or environment demands changes in Behavior.  The result of these changes drives new Relationships (RBC) among economic actors.

    It is one thing to move from wood and dung as fuel to the coal that powered steamships and now other fossil fuels that power almost everything as well as the feedstocks for almost everything the modern world uses and social transformations.  There are major differences between the two Differential Pressures.

    Energy Transformation is heavily dependent on hard infrastructure.  The ability to economically replace gas stations with plug in sites, the time it takes to ‘refuel’ a mobile machine, and so forth and so one.  This is a decades long process and not something that can be done on a simplistic political timeline.

    Social Transformation is not easy either.  However, the process mostly requires changing collective mindfulness.  This process can unfold rather quickly.

    For example, events of Pearl Harbor, 9/11 as well as the adoption of ‘Smart phones,’ political party positions, weather events, etc. can transform thoughts in weeks, months and even days.  In this sense it is easier to accomplish.

    Fin

    Change happens when all parties feel like there is something in it for them.  Where exogenous or endogenous, new Conditions can drive better Behaviors and thus new Relationships.  However, individuals need to know the value they will derive.  A failure to communicate need not be fait accompli.

    Do You Know if You Are Communicating with Your Friends, Colleagues and Others?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more information regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give us a shout.

  • Sun Sets in the West: Science or Commentary?

    Sun Sets in the West: Science or Commentary?

    One newscaster recently used the metaphor of the sun setting in the west as settled science so contrary views were not newsworthy.  His argument–Fairness is Over Rated!  What?  One wonders whether this is true for those who believe the world is round or for those in the Flat Earth Society?

    Yet most political commentary and views are not so apparent.  Politicians and pundits constantly refer to ‘so-called’ settled science only to have new information surface.  Moreover, we know how to test theories using the Scientific Method.  Sadly, outside of formal academic style research this tool does not appear to be in vogue these days.

    Sun Set

    We learn the truism that the sun rises in the east in the morning and sets in the west (slightly seasonally adjusted).  In fact, this calendar and timing have been known for several millennia.  This process is measurable and repeatable.  This phenomenon is supported by empirical data taken from experimentation and observation.  The data is valid (accurate) and reliable (repeatable).  Therefore, it follows that the knowledge of the sun setting in the west is based on science.

    In My Opinion . . .

    The 24/7 news cycle bombards us all with “Breaking News,” often several days after its occurrence.  In their rush to get the ‘scoop‘ facts are not available at the time, overlooked or deliberately mangled or omitted.  We are told that such and such is settled fact.  And then it isn’t!

    When one puts forth a position that while may be based on the certainty of one’s perspective on a matter, it often does not meet the test of the Scientific Method.  By definition, this type of statement is a viewpoint or a sentiment.  However, it can take on the mantle of science but is really Pseudo-Science as the hypothesis cannot be proved false.

    One’s perspective or cognitive bias on a given subject can lead to the development of an organizational, policy, political or social agenda designed to sway thinking and thus support the development and implementation of initiatives designed to operationalize said ideas.  Proponents often couch their position as “The Science.”

    Contemporary Decisions

    Our world is awash with significant economic and social challenges.  Whether ESG, Covid-19, Climate Change or Inflation everyone has an opinion with data and/or studies to support their positions.

    Consumers/Policy Makers/Decision Makers of these information will have to assess their value.   How valid and reliable are the positions taken and what is the uncertainty and risk associated with their implementation?

    The basis of all decisions include a level of incomplete or incorrect data.  This phenomenon is where the military phase, “No plan survives first contact with the enemy” comes from.

    So, it is with the confrontations of these four global issues.  A robust discussion of the various points-of-view and their basis is necessary.  Why is this not happening?

    When statements that the ‘consensus’ of vast majority of experts/scientists is blah blah blah are made, this should be a major red flag.  The statement that the ‘sun sets in the west’ has a significant body of knowledge behind it.  There is a level of uncertainty with most other prognostications.

    Louis Pasteur is credited with the statement, “Chance favors the prepared mind.”  This is just as true today as when he was developing vaccines for the anthrax and rabies scourges of his day.

    The best decisions are made even when controversial such as with Pasteur’s vaccines.  Eisenhower’s decision about D-day had similar attributes of uncertainty and risk.

    The United States, indeed the world has embarked on a multi-trillion dollar effort to solve the so-called existential threat of global warming.  Politically charged, one wonders if any of the proponents and doomsayers are basing their positions on actual science.

    How DARE THEY push false agendas that cost so much and will destroy economies.  How DARE THEY!!

    Are your organization’s decisions based on science or just someone’s opinion?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more information regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give us a shout.

  • Why Corporate Initiatives Fail

    Why Corporate Initiatives Fail

    According to the Cambridge Dictionary, one definition of initiative is. “A new plan or action to improve something or solve a problem.”  In corporate parlance this often translates into yet another short-term and often politically correct effort to demonstrate forward motion/social citizenship.  Often forgotten faster than the evening news cycle as new searches for performance take their place.

    Organizations of all types, public, private, profit and nonprofit etc. tend to announce new initiatives with great fanfare and pronouncements about ‘transforming our culture.’  So why do they continuously fall short of expectations?

    According to a Forbes Survey released just before the pandemic, “When participants in our survey were asked to create a list of reasons for (change programs) failure, ‘insufficient budget’ was cited by 23% and ‘insufficient time’ by only 17%.  Instead, participants ranked poor communication (62%), insufficient leadership and support (54%), organizational politics (50%), lack of understanding of the purpose of the change (50%), lack of user buy-in (42%) and lack of collaboration (40%) as the most critical issues.”

    In aggregate, the article suggests a total failure rate of70%.  This percentage level was first put forth in the early 1990s and is accepted by many as still correct today.  While empirical evidence is sketchy, none-the-less, the perception of failure remains high.

    This tracks with other project failure statistics this author has seen over the years.  Yet, all of these failure attributes are human and therefore, manageable and correctable.

    Today’s Buzz

    The economy is always front and center.  More so today given Inflation and Supply Chain problems.

    In this blogger’s opinion and in order of priority other key issues include Diversity, Inclusion and Equity (DEI), Climate Change and Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG).  While different organizations may face other challenges, these Four tend to dominate the news.

    Often issues overlap or compound, thus exponentially amplifying the impact on society.  For example, the electric vehicle (EV) is touted as a lynchpin to ‘fixing’ the Climate Change issue.  However, supply chain issues currently limit battery production and one can surmise this is a long-term problem and not simply current shortages or delays.  If this is correct, meeting desired climate metrics is problematic.

    Diversity, Equity and Inclusion

    Perhaps the most emotional of the Big Four, DEI seeks to level the so-called playing field for all regardless of ethnicity, gender or behavioral preferences.  Almost all organizations have a DEI Initiative underway.  Yet, they seem to be stalling much to the frustration of advocates.

    According to one source, “The DEI industry is dominated by what scholars call ‘personnel managers,’ employees in human resources.”  This is also the observation of this pundit as well.

    LinkedIn profiles include, Chief Diversity Officers, any number of DEI consultants and others carrying similar titles as well as commercial organizations offering DEI products and solutions.  Much like the plethora of Safety Culture ‘experts’ and tools that emerged after Deepwater Horizon offshore drilling rig disaster in 2010.

    From a recent Korn Ferry article, “Experts say companies must treat DE&I as they would any other business issue and use data analytics to understand why things aren’t working.”  This author interprets this to mean that DEI must be incorporated into ‘the way we do business‘ or part of the organization’s culture.

    No longer a simple initiative, the next Chief Diversity Officer may be a Caucasian male or even redundant.  Then, DEI will no longer be seen as a separate and different department.

    Energy Transformation

    The president of the United States recently said, ““ it comes to the gas prices, we’re going through an incredible transition that is taking place that, God willing, when it’s over, we’ll be stronger and the world will be stronger and less reliant on fossil fuels when this is over.”  As many countries implement Climate Change policies, this transition is economically rough to say the least.

    And with no guarantees that these efforts will actually reduce the earth’s temperature decades out, is this a Big Bet with major consequences to all of us.  In our last blog, Innovation: The Key to the Global Future we addressed the economics in detail.  Interested readers should refer to that piece.

    An extensive assessment was developed by Bjorn Lomborg in his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.  His credentials include the fact that he believes in global warming and is not a ‘denier’ as the phase goes.

    Caution to the lemmings jumping off the Energy Transition cliff, this is the ultimate initiative as it is political by nature.  Fickle by nature, political winds can change quickly and with that the value proposition.

    To some extent we are seeing this already as governments seek to address spirally energy costs, i.e., Germany restarts coal-fired power plants.  We might see more of this after the US midterm elections in November.

    ESG

    This initiative is treated as if it is new.  Well run companies have always enjoyed higher equity value.

    In 2011, we published our White Paper, Asset/Equipment Integrity Governance: Operations–Enterprise Alignment.  In that paper, we quoted, “During that period (2002), McKinsey & Company in conjunction with the Global Corporate Governance Forum conducted a study and found that over 75% of over 200 fund managers would value a stock at a higher price point if the company could demonstrate it had strong governance in place.  Moreover, the study also revealed that for western markets, firms with strong shareholder rights averaged 12-14% higher stock prices.”

    We previously addressed ESG in detail and how it fits in our Relationships, Behaviors, Conditions (RBC) Framework  (risk mitigation).  The operative word is Relationships.  This will include every stakeholder, so the impact can be substantial.

    For some organizations, ESG is new and the source of value in the annual Letter to Shareholders.  For others, business as usual incorporates those premises.  Begs the question, which organization would you like to invest in?

    Concluding Thoughts

    In this corporate animal’s experience, initiatives are seen as short-term events.  Leadership’s ‘rubber stamp’ does not carry gravitas.  Employees often ‘wait them out’ and go just about their business.  Others create media splash which dies quickly as well.  Only when change is codified in the organization’s culture do new approaches add sustained value.

    Initiatives fail because neither the board room nor the factory floor see them as adding value.  Fads driven by political winds, activists or social desires come and go.

    Strong governance is a proven value add.  A diverse workforce can add value but climate change as currently practiced will most like fail and fail Big and Expensive.  Society has addressed similar economic issues and will again.

    Are Your Organizational Initiatives Sustainable or Simply Fads?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.

    Disclaimer, the author has no personal or business relationship with Bjorn Lomborg or his publications other than reading and commenting on his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give us a shout.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

     

  • Beware The Guns of March?

    Beware The Guns of March?

    Readers know that as of this writing there is geopolitical and military tension in eastern Europe.  Hopefully, the situation will resolve peacefully.

    This piece is not about those politics.  Rather it is about the potential for accidental engagement and how that risk can be mitigated.

    President Kennedy is famously cited for the comment that referred to the origin of the War to End All Wars, “Perhaps the greatest contribution historians have made to humanity, at least as historians sometimes tell it, came during the Cuban Missile Crisis when Barbara Tuchman’s book, The Guns of August, saved the world from nuclear war.  The book is Tuchman’s narrative of the origins of the First World War, an account that, in President John F. Kennedy’s reading, showed how miscalculation and inflexible military planning could force great powers into catastrophic conflicts against their leaders’ wishes.”  We might add, against the wishes of the populations that must endure the unbearable cost of stupid interventions.  As noted by Herbert Hoover.

    “Older men declare war. But it is the youth that must fight and die.”

    While the Cuban Missile Crisis worked out well for both parties, including the world in general, it was not necessarily a given.  Miscalculations such as the US lack of knowledge regarding nuclear weapons onboard Soviet submarines or the ‘launch’ upon the invasion of the island of Cuba order could have been disastrous.

    Misunderstanding during the 1983 military exercise Able Archer is another example of a near nuclear catastrophe.  And then there all the Broken Arrows,  nuclear weapon incidents (that we know of).

    Complex Systems’ Behaviors

    This blog series has commented on complex interconnected systems a number of times.  The  Risk Profile is dramatically increased in such systems.  Geopolitical and military systems must be viewed through this lens as well.  However, we know complex systems can be properly managed and thus reduce the likelihood of major global impact events.

    This process is grounded in High Reliability Management (HRM).  Wikipedia defines, “A high reliability organization (HRO) is an organization that has succeeded in avoiding catastrophes in an environment where normal accidents can be expected due to risk factors and complexity.

    This author believes that geopolitical and military complex systems can benefit from this model.  Given that the cost of these type failures is incalculable they certainty fits HRM profile.

    Folly Revisited

    In the 1930s Brinksmanship did not end well.  Following historical patterns, especially from World War I, Europe plunged into the abyss for the second time in two decades.  Miscalculations on the side of multiple parties in both conflicts let to unthinkable destruction and loss of life.

    Today’s militaries are much more powerful than ever.  Hopefully, from Shakespeare, “Beware the ides of March” does not portend this year.

    Geopolitical miscalculations, brinksmanship and other aggressive negotiations can go badly.  This is especially the case when adversaries are not in direct and frequent communication with all parties.

    Even then cultural differences put discussions at risk.  Temperance, communication and though is what saves the world from the unthinkable.  Hopefully, cooler heads will continue to prevail during the current crisis.

    Cross Cultural Negotiation

    The importance of cross cultural understanding cannot be overstated as geopolitics and businesses deal with complex, multi-faceted issues across many nations, ethnicities and cultures.  Old international negotiation models are no longer relevant.

    Behavioral Economics is foremost today.  All parties dealt with are by definition diverse.  They are composed of different genders, ethnicities and ages etc.  This is a more accurate model that reflects the reality of organizations today.

    Also, keep in mind that no nation is homogeneous.  Each is composed of separate regions, cities, with local backgrounds, cultures and more.  So when one talks about two or more geopolitical entities to be at odds over an issue(s), that model is too simplistic and can lead to greater risks as described earlier.

    These are more contributing factors for misunderstanding and miscalculation.  Most of us never ‘step in the other’s shoes.’  However, we can recognize the differences in perspectives, behavior and cultures.

    Changing the Playing Field

    We have often discussed the Relationships, Behaviors and Conditions (RBC) construct among economic actors.  The model argues that new Conditions or Situations and Behaviors change the Relationship among parties.  This applies at all levels of human interactions from two individuals to many nations.  It is applicable here as knowledge to help diffuse difficult situations.  For an in-depth review of the model, check the linked blog.

    No Guns this Time?

    The cascading events following the assassination of the Austrian, Archduke Franz Ferdinand by a small terrorist group is widely believed to have led to the beginning of World War I.  The sceptic must put forth, “you have got to be kidding me.”  Yet, it did happen.

    Our point here is that it does not take much to launch the horrible.  How many American doughboys died for that nonsense?  It can happen again and most likely will at some point given human nature.

    Business Contingency

    Geopolitical risk has always been one component of an organization’s risk profile.  What will be the impact on your business if the unthinkable happens in Europe again?  Other risk mitigation tools include social media.

    In 2013 we published ” Mitigating Operational Risk Using the Power of Social Media” that identified a methodology to better understand the beliefs and behaviors of local populations.  From the footnoted piece, “Large global enterprises can augment existing security and risk management with the same solutions used by the government entities in the defense sector at commercial price points.  The real question is not why, but why not?”

    Since that time, there have been significant advances in these capabilities.  Other readily available tools can assist as well.  Use inexpensive technology to protect global stakeholder interests.

    How Robust is Your Firm’s Contingency Plans for Geopolitical Uncertainties?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    Footnote

    Kuiper, Marcus A. and Shemwell, Scott M. (2013, February). Mitigating Operational Risk Using the Power of Social Media. Petroleum Africa Magazine. pp. 28-31.

  • THE SCIENCE: The Reason We Need STEM

    THE SCIENCE: The Reason We Need STEM

    Almost every day, we hear that “The Science” says . . .  We are told Covid-19 and Climate Change are based on The Science and as such we must accept that expert analyses as ‘settled.’  Then something changes and once more the science police demand we accept their new interpretation.

    The near-term result: confusion and lack of trust, even acrimony.  The Science, as presented by the media, politicians and others is a static solution.  As we follow The Science, we are told we must adjust but not necessarily why.

    There is no reason to trust to fate or our political betters (call themselves elites).  The Science is not that mysterious.  The term is meant to deride most of us, including degreed scientists like this author.  Might want to ask those pontificating to define the ‘Scientific Method.’

    Set at the beginning of the 20th Century Space Race, the movie, Hidden Figures brought broad attention to the mathematical genius of a group of then unknown women.  They were instrumental helping the fledgling NASA achieve the early goals of manned space flight, including the lunar landings.  They understood The Science better than others.

    On the Shoulders of Giants

    With the social deck stacked against them, these women rose above the norms of the time and accomplished feats unknown and certainly unexpected by contemporaries.  Perhaps more importantly, they demonstrated that math and science is not reserved for elites.  They educated all of us.

    We live in a technological age and told shortly everything will be ‘Smart.’  The workforce will change, and our view of the world will be dramatically different.  Moreover, many of us will no longer be relevant or even employable.  Balderdash!

    Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math (STEM)

    STEM is the anacronym for the set of technical knowledge embodied in these ‘hard’ disciplines.  Collectively, they form the backbone of our 21st Century economy and social advancement.  While liberal arts disciplines are important, STEM knowledge is critical if we are to hold the ‘experts’ accountable.

    Increasingly, ‘soft’ or social skills are also seen as important.  The old concept of the ‘Nerd’ is giving way to the technologist with human empathy.

    The emerging generation(s) will need STEM expertise as well as soft skills.  In some ways this is no different than previous times when the Titans of Industry changed their world.  Building on new technologies, they built business.  A successful business requires a knowledgeable workforce that can monetize technology.

    The titans this time are everyday men and women, even juveniles.  Knowledge of STEM subjects is dictating individual success or failure.  Get on the STEM train.

    Role of R B C

    We have routinely commented on the Relationships, Behaviors, Conditions model first put forth in the 1990s.  From a previous blog, “One of the basic tenets of the RBC Framework is the general construct that Relationships cannot be determined a priori.  The well-used example is a man and a woman sitting on a bench at a bus stop.  Are they married, siblings, coworkers, friends or simply two people waiting to catch the same/different bus?

    Their relationship cannot be known directly.  However, their Behaviors will provide insight into how they relate to each other.  Romantic behavior may indicate marriage, dating, an affair etc. They may still be coworkers but most likely are not strangers.

    The third dimension, Conditions (environment) can be considered the stage upon which behaviors play.”

    One can make the case that STEM is a condition or situation.  In other words, our technology environment.  The behavior of individuals with these skill sets will determine the relationship these individuals have with their peers, customers/business ecosystem and economy/society in general.

    Finally

    We spend a lot of time, quoting “The Science.”  Most vocalizing the term are not scientists or even qualified to understand its basic tenets.  But taken as gospel because of some perceived authority, i.e., politicians, newscasters, celebrities and bureaucrats among others.

    This scientist suggests that STEM is necessary to assure the emerging generations understand “The Science” and how it can actually be used to benefit mankind.  And, oh yea and make a buck!

    Where does STEM fit in Your Organization’s Strategy?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.

  • Are Your DEI Wheels Spinning?

    Are Your DEI Wheels Spinning?

    Originally published as a LinkedIn article on July 6, 2021, this updated version is reprinted here with the permission of the author.  Links to relevant sources are added.

    Lately, many LinkedIn posts bemoan the state of Diversity, Equity, Inclusion (DEI) initiatives. The seeming slow take up of great ideas.

    Some argue that DEI initiatives are no more than window dressing or organizational efforts to stave-off litigation. To others, they have the appearance of one more management initiative that if waited out will simply go away like so many others before.

    Fundamentally, DEI initiatives require change. A change of (B)ehaviors in the face of seemingly new situations or influencing (C)onditions (Circumstances, Capabilities, Cultures, Environments). When these two variables evolve, so do exiting (R)elationships. The RBC model is well established in social science and was first used to model Cross-Cultural (international business) Negotiations.

    It is multi-dimensional including a temporal schema capable of addressing numerous aspects of human behavior. Furthermore, it encompasses cultural as well as other situational aspects such as individual backgrounds.

    We tested this model using Japanese and American executives. This culturally diverse group needed to develop a level of trust if negotiation outcomes were to be successful.

    Likewise, successful DEI initiatives require that culturally diverse groups develop a high level of trust among those working together and/or members of teams.

    “Tell Me and I Forget. Teach Me and I Remember. Involve Me and I Learn”

    Attributed to Benjamin Franklin, this quote tells us all we need to know. The so-called Death by PowerPoint lecture long in vogue are often forgettable. Instruction, along with the homework prerequisite and tests are traditional methods. Finally, engaging individuals, teams, departments and even entire organizations can create long standing sustainable knowledge that is the basis for behavioral transformation.

    Paper based serious games or “games whose purpose is other than entertainment” originated in the late 1960-70s. In a nutshell, this is an interactive training solution. Subsequently, online serious games can incorporate actual scenarios designed to immerse players solving real world challenges.

    Rather than a video game whereby players engage with electronic decision trees, human-to-human serious games train players/teams to deal with diverse yet real colleagues. Collaborative scenarios direct participants to collectively solve problems while learning how their culturally dissimilar counterparts address the same challenge.

    Scenarios can drive engagement by all players including those who may not be typically involved in decision making processes. This is also a safe, no-harm no-foul environment with little to no individual decision-making risk.

    Transformation

    Any successful ‘change’ initiative must answer the What’s in It for Me? question. Humans may resist change if they do not see personal value from such actions. Moreover, while senior executive leadership is required, heavy handed top down My Way or The Highway may result in direct resistance, and/or a more crowed freeway to the exit ramp.

    For example, the current version of the smart phone was first available circa 2007. According to Statista, approximately 1.38 billion smartphones were sold in 2020. Likewise, over 46 percent of the global population own these devices.

    What does this have to do with DEI? In 2006 cellphones were great and becoming ubiquitous. No one knew they needed a smartphone. Our collective Behavioral transformation was caused because the What’s in it for Me question was answered.

    One component of the Conditions criteria, Capability changed as this technology enabled individuals to drive new behaviors based on Apps that emerged. The resulting transformation in our Relationships is well documented, i.e., the use of text as opposed to voice.

    Sustained transformation requires continued energy. The term ‘initiative’ implies a short-term event and one that will pass.

    Trust must be established and maintained. Over time, sustained energy will result in critical mass, or the (statistically significant) number of individuals engaged and trusting each other. This self-sustaining energy is transformation.

    Reframing DEI Initiatives into the RBC Framework can enable dramatic and rapid transformation. Take advantage of these types of cross-cultural models.

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.