“If it disagrees with experiment, its wrong”—Richard Feynman
Full Disclosure: this author holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Physics with a minor in Mathematics. My doctoral dissertation developed a new Game Theory based practical solution.
For those unfamiliar with this discipline, check out the movie Beautiful Mind or the work of John von Neumann who is also the father of the modern computing architecture. Our approach is based on these integrated disciplines.
This follows on the last blog and was inspired by a weekend conversation with my brother who holds a Ph.D. in physics and has invented products making the aviation world much safer.
The incomparable (Nobel Prize in Physics) Richard Feynman knew how to teach physics to laypeople. One of his most notable moments was when he showed the shuttle Challenger committee that freezing o-rings made them more brittle—something most living in the north intuitively know but somehow was lost during cold snaps in Florida (not entirely as some warned of this potential). The other option was “get-there-itis” or the need to fulfill a mission no matter what. Time, money and reputation at risk. For more information, check out the final report on the Challenger.
Instead of taking your time to read this pundit’s opinion, spend 10 minutes to hear what this Nobel Laurate has to say regarding the definition of Science and the Scientific Method. He also argues that with ‘Vague Theory’ you can get multiple results, aka pseudo-science.
I think this model works for Covid-19 as well. After all, addressing this pathogen is largely technology based.
“For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled”
—R. Feynman, Challenger Report
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Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials. They are provided for education and entertainment only.
We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020. Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!
Full Disclosure: this author holds an undergraduate degree in Physics with a minor in Mathematics. My doctoral dissertation developed a new Game Theory based practical solution.For those unfamiliar with this discipline, check out the movie Beautiful Mind or the work of John von Neumann who is also the father of the modern computing architecture. Our approach is based on these integrated disciplines.
Belief in ‘The Science’
The multiple disciplines often called ‘Science’ incorporate a wide set of specialties. At the fundamental level all life depends on science. Gravity, medicine, chemistry, electronics, are all dependent on basic scientific understanding. If it was not so, our iPhones would not work.
The phrase, “Everything that can be invented has been invented” Charles H. Duell Commissioner of US patent office (perhaps jokingly) supposedly said in 1899. Needless to say, ‘The Science’ continues to evolve.
When treated as fait accompli, (Settled Science) pundits pronouncing The Science says “. . .,” do their audience a disservice. Since human first started discovering their world and its place in the universe science has been an ongoing process. Those interested in additional details should check out the Timeline of Scientific Discoveries. A very compelling read.
A final point, science is usually the subject of often great debate—sometimes for decades or more. In this sense, there is no such thing as settled science—there is always something new to discover in any field.
Pseudo-Science
Lies, darn lies and statistics is a phase often heard. Its meaning? The use of numbers can be very persuasive bolstering diametrically opposed positions or academic arguments. This is one way to look at the differences between science and pseudo-science.
According to Scientific American, “Scientific claims are falsifiable—that is, they are claims where you could set out what observable outcomes would be impossible if the claim were true—while pseudo-scientific claims fit with any imaginable set of observable outcomes. What this means is that you could do a test that shows a scientific claim to be false, but no conceivable test could show a pseudo-scientific claim to be false. Sciences are testable, pseudo-sciences are not.”
These two terms are often confused or deliberately conflated in support of positions based on ‘The Science.’ Caveat Usor or ‘let the user (of information) beware’ of the agenda and/or purpose of its purveyor.
Enter Covid
Covid-19 has presented some interesting challenges. From the public discourse, one can assume both science and pseudo-science are at work. A vigorous dialogue is ongoing at all levels of society from the political and medical classes to the so-called man (or woman) on the street.
The public is not used to seeing such open scientific debate by knowledgeable (scientists) parties and it often appears they are in total disagreement about various aspects of the pathogen. In this, they are correct as they are seeing the so-called ‘sausage making’ of this discipline.
Likewise, a wide variety of agendas seem to be driving the use of pseudo-science to support positions and action plans. This seeming chaos, especially in a US presidential election cycle has cast a long shadow of Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt (FUD).
Data integrity, statistical models and medicine have all been called into question this year. Beyond this pandemic, we are all now faced with the politicization of ‘The Science.’
Guidelines in the Era of Hyper-Technology
Approximately twenty years ago, the chemical company Dupont changed its long standing tag line from “Better Living Through Chemistry” to “The Miracles of Science.” This suggests that everyone living today has seen science at the forefront of our existence.
Technology, the delivery mechanism of science to consumers has expanded at an exponential rate and is seeming driving even faster. Therefore, a hypothesis from the Scientific Method is that ‘we consumers are knowledgeable buyers.’
So, why not use the Scientific Method yourself? Here is one approach:
Pose a Testable Question—Ask yourself how can I measure the response?
Conduct Background Research—Google search et al, recognizing the probably of bias on the part of authors
State your Hypothesis—Question with NO pre-conceived outcome (Pseudo-Science)
Design Experiment—How can I test my hypothesis?
Perform your Experiment—Test your idea
Collect Data—Write down anything that you learn
Draw Conclusions—What makes logical sense (Mr. Spoke)?
Publish Findings—Tell your colleagues, write a blog or more
This need not be an arduous task. In fact, much of it you’re doing already when you make a decision to procure technology devices.
Think about what you hear pundits arguing about using this approach. You will likely arrive at your personal conclusion that you are either hearing about science or pseudo-science.
Either answer may be fine, but now you will know more about what you are consuming. This is an important distinction.
How Can You Assure Yourself That You Are Not Blinded by Science?
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We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020. Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!
As September draws to a close the Houston metropolitan area has dodged two hurricane bullets; Laura and Beta. Fingers crossed that this very active season draws to an early and quiet close. The beauty and downside of the 24/7 news and weather reporting is that lay people learn more jargon then we ever new possible. Take for example, the term Pressure Differential.
One broadcaster used this phrase to describe the low at the eye-of-the-storm and circulating higher pressure. In other words, the ‘tension at the margin’ or stress between competing bodies—the engine of power.
Humans constantly deal with this phenomenon and sometimes the stress caused by this dichotomy can seem to be overwhelming. Sometimes, it seems this powerful internal engine races without a governor.
The Power of Change
The pandemic, storm season, economy, job, family and a host of other issues tug at our margins constantly. When writing about stress, Winston Churchill famously stated, “But the element which is constant and common in all of them is Change.”
Mark Twain is credited with, “If you don’t like the weather, wait five minutes (and it will change).” Hurricane pressure differentials subside and the sun shines again. Yet, the hurricane engine does not change of its own accord.
In the case of Beta, dry air at its margin was one element that sapped it of its strength. Storms change as a result of exogenous events. Humans can also incorporate endogenous actions as change agents.
Use Case
Recently, I commented on a LinkedIn post where the author was reminding recruiters that hospitality workers have great and transferable skills. The example I suggested was around events.
The traditional conference event sector has been hit hard by the pandemic with most conferences cancelled. The toll on those employees and supporting contractors must be horrendous.
However, there is a surge in online event like activity. Many of the same activities for in person conferences are the same.
The program must be developed and marketed. Speakers, panelists, participants and others must be recruited. Wouldn’t those sales, planners and others from the traditional sector bring immediate and significant value to the digital venue?
The power of change is within all of us. Govern that engine properly and your pressure differential will nullify.
What’s Your Change Plan for these Transformative Times?
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We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020. Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!
When transforming this website to the Word Press platform, this author accepted the “wisdom” of various online sources and used a so called up and coming new Page Builder. A huge mistake!
After many failures and indeed public page lockups, I changed to a more established solution—the one used for this writing. Over this technological journey, I was told by a number of support individuals to ‘deactivate’ plugins and troubleshoot from there. While this sounds good on paper (or over chat call out), it does now work well when using this technology to run a business.
Software Architecture
According to Wikipedia, “the fundamental structures of a software system and the discipline of creating such structures and systems. Each structure comprises software elements, relations among them, and properties of both elements and relations. The architecture of a software system is a metaphor, analogous to the architecture of a building. It functions as a blueprint for the system and the developing project, laying out the tasks necessary to be executed by the design teams.”
The proliferation of Apps, Plugins and other products are a concern in any Open Source software development process that depends on a global set of independent development firms and individuals.
As far back as the 1980s systems integrators decried the use of third-party memory cards in DEC mini systems. The logic was that these organizations could not assure performance if these products were use. To some extent they were right; however, in many ways it did not matter.
However, when it came to service or warranty, It did matter. If the system crashed because of a third-party product the user was on their own. Loss of revenue and destruction of reputation remained with the customer and not the technology providers. This was also my experience in 2020; some 30+ years later!
These systems are not trivial; they are complex. For example, the following diagram is taken from AWS Best Practices for Word Press. Does your provider manage to this level?
Does It Matter Now?
In an era of turn off your plugins to troubleshoot, I am not sure this doesn’t matter—point made above. How can one run a business or even a personal ‘fun’ site if this error message appears after an upgrade?
One fears that in the Open Source era Generally Accepted Practices for software development are not rigorously followed. Imagine if GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Practices) were not followed? Oh wait, do I hear Enron, MCI et al? We all know how that ended.
So, use a ‘free’ plugin to clean up short code. Hopefully, the tech selected will refresh when the new ultimately happens and incompatibility will not be an issue. If this your strategy—Good luck!
Are You Betting Your Company on this So-Called MVP Model?
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The battle of Leyte Gulf in 1944 with over 200,000 individuals involved is possibly the largest naval battle in history. Hopefully, one of the last ones.
In that battle, the submarine USS Darter initially detected (on radar) the Japanese task force early on October 23. Other US naval vessels spotted that armada shortly thereafter on their radar screens. This advanced knowledge enabled to US Navy to seize the initiative. After the battle, the Japanese never stood up an equivalent naval force again.
Technological advantage can be a game changer. There is evidence of this phenomenon throughout history. In this instance, the result was the elimination of the adversary’s ability to recover and reengage in a meaningful way.
History’s Lessons
Another game changer from that era was the proximity fuse developed by the Applied Physics Laboratory of Johns Hopkins University. This technology enabled anti-aircraft rounds to explode within 75 feet of an attacking enemy aircraft instead of requiring physical contact which had a poor track record. Referred to as, “The real secret weapon of World War II,” it is credited with shorting the war.
Adversity has always led to rapid technological development. There are indications that the Covid-19 pandemic is fueling an explosion of new ideas that directly address the infection as well as drive performance when the threat has passed.
Capturing Value
The conventional approach is to follow the Technology Adoption Life Cycle. But is that still the realistic model today? In our article published in 2004 Calculus of Value Model, we argue that the exact opposite is true.
Advantage can go to those organizations that deploy technology early and codify knowledge obtained as a result. The resulting ‘unfair advantage’ can change an industry.
Previously we have made the case that while the concept of Minimum Viable Product aka MVP; a product that Early Adopters will find satisfactory, “The assessment of such technological solutions needs to be robust and thought through. Not the knee jerk response often seen.” Meaning that certain risks must be factored in the Value Proposition, but these can be manageable.
According to Oracle’s Larry Ellison, “If you do everything that everyone else does in business, you’re going to lose. The only way to really be ahead, is to ‘be different’.” So Be Different—Start Early!
How Can You Make New Technologies Your Organizational Game Changer?
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We are presenting, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020. Check Out this timely event!!
In statistics a Latent Variable can be defined as, ‘a variable inferred from observed or measured data.’ Its analysis is often used psychology, economics, and predictive modeling. This author used Structural Equation Models (SEM) in his 1996 doctoral dissertation, Cross Cultural Negotiations Between Japanese and American Businessmen: A Systems Analysis (Exploratory Study).
From that abstract, “The use of sophisticated statistical techniques such as structural equation modeling and game theory is becoming increasing more important. Traditional techniques are known to be limited, particularly in the context of cross-cultural behavioral studies.”
Survival Bias
A recent LinkedIn post alerted this writer to the inimitable perspective statistician Abraham Wald brought to the assessment of World War II Allied bomber damage upon return from missions. He argued that observed anti-aircraft damage was non-crippling since the aircraft remained airworthy and was able to return.
He surmised that planes that did not come home may have suffered damage to other areas making them unairworthy and hence their data was unobserved. Based on this analysis, the U.S. Navy beefed-up armor in the less or unaffected areas and this was credited with saving lives and aircraft.
This type of analysis came to known as Survival Bias which has its proponents and detractors. On the surface, it seemed intuitively obvious that areas of damage need addressing while not necessarily those statistically showing fewer issues.
It is not our intent herein to assess its merits and applicability. Rather to help readers better understand the very nature of big data and its use, especially in predictive and behavioral models.
Covid-19
Today, policy and other decision makers are tasked with dealing with a deadly global pathogen. Apparently developing quickly and spreading exponentially—a super spreading event. As of this writing has afflicted millions in 188 countries/region in much less than 12 months.
In this pundit’s opinion, much of the concern, confusion and clearly wrong information regarding this disease and mitigation protocols can be traced to data collection and analysis. By now most readers will have some familiarity with the chaos associated with these predictive models.
For example, according to the US National Library of Medicine, National Institute of Health, “A key fact for us all to remember is that, for the majority of countries, we’re not actually counting how many people have the virus—instead were counting the reports of how many people have the virus, and, like all metrics, those numbers vary according to how they’re measured. An increase in the number of tests being carried out will result in an increase in the number of infections detected.”
In addition to the Herculean efforts to tame this tiger from the vast medical, scientific, technology and many other disciplines, Structural Equation Modeling is being used to shed additional light on the latent variables.
Final Thoughts
The 2020 Coronavirus is an early test of Big Data analysis in support of decision makers both for public policy and non-government organizations. While performance so far has been weak, this pundit believes great value can come from this effort.
Data quality must be highly reliable and valid. Moreover, models must assess what is not seen, the latent variables such as found in Survival Bias. These two aspects of strong decision support models are crucial. These are lessons for all of us.
Where Didn’t the Bullets Hit Your Business Model?
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We have all had that, “Where do I start” moment? Confronted with the NEW, sometimes the task seems daunting. In a recent conversation, a colleague and I were discussing an adult training program. The subject centered on how to help students jump start a creative flow.
We humans are fond of using so called cheat sheets. Whether school CliffNotes, Cut and Paste, Go Bys, Best Practices or other tools to wrap our mind around a subject and launch the thought process. In other words, anything to move us away from the cosmic void–so called ‘writer’s block.’
Tidbits that Work for Me
Faced with tyranny often during my formative career years, i.e., a professional services proposal, new spreadsheet, etc. a few tricks were developed.
First—Just start writing. Put your thoughts down as they fly out and don’t worry about the order or even if they are relevant. You can sort these things out later, but a least your paper is no longer blank.
Get Up—Hit a spot where nothing is pouring out of your brain? Put your (electronic) paper down and go exercise or do something totally unrelated. You will be surprised how the creative juices will flow when you return.
Ask a Friend—Remember the old game show where contestants could ‘phone a friend’ when stumped on a question? Brainstorm with friend and colleagues; even those who have no knowledge of the problem your engaged with. Sometimes, they have the best insight—true out of the box.
Do Something Else—If time allows put the project on the shelf and work on something entirely different. You can come back later refreshed.
FYI, the tyranny never goes away. Hundreds of publications and presentations later, it still can persist from time to time. The four tidbits still work for this author.
By one definition, tyranny is “cruel, unreasonable, or arbitrary use of power or control.” There is no reason to let a blank sheet of paper exercise such awful authority. Take back your creativity!
Why Let the Blank Sheet of Paper Ruin Your Day?
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We presented,Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learnedat the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 on April 9, 2020. The summit will be offered again soon. Check it Out!!
It appears that issues associated with the Covid-19 pandemic will remain for some time. Hopefully, the emerging vaccines will be readily available in the coming months. That said, one of the disruptive changes that may codify is Working from Home.
In our March 16, 2020 piece, Home Base During a Crisis: ‘get up, clean up and dress up’ we addressed some of the problems one uncovers when working from home during a crisis. In that piece, we conjectured “Is this a paradigm shift or just a short-term inconvenience? Reality; probably a bit of both.”
The virus and its propagation remain serious. However, from the perspective of a new normal working remotely is becoming an accepted model. Many organizations have announced long-term and even permanent distant working plans.
As we move from a short-term crisis to a ‘way of life,’ we must make changes as well. The need for a daily structured process must become our approach to the job as does the need to find meaningful engagement with others.
As with other change models, new process should not just happen. An attainable action plan must be put in place and followed.
Some Ideas
In no order, these thoughts might be helpful.
When we transitioned from school to our first ‘real’ job, changes in our daily life were perhaps dramatic. It is useful to think of this paradigm shift from that perspective.
One of the challenges faced by retirement is often the sudden stop in activities. Going from Business @ the Speed of Thought to “I wonder what I will do today” has literally killed many retirees at a very young age.
One way to make this a soft landing is a transition process. Many I have known have taken new positions that were not as stressful prior to full retirement. Try this approach when moving to 80+% working from home.
Another example; restaurants opening after Stay at Home orders were lifted started at 25% capacity and then to 50% and so on. This allows staff to adopt policy and guidelines into their formal work process.
Think of this as a ‘Life Stage Transition.’ Marriage, birth of a child, divorce, moving, etc. lead to significant changes in our daily schedule.
An article in Psychology Today recounts “10 Ways to Make it Through Your Life’s Transitions.” This is a good quick perusal and readers will see useful coping mechanisms (especially for those where a transition is unwanted).
Moreover, with school openings uncertain children as well as parents may learn from the points made herein. Working from Home has good stages and not so good junctures. Capitalize on the former.
What is Your Personal Business Model for Working from Home Permanently?
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Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to third-party materials. They are provided for education and entertainment only.
We presented,Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learnedat the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 on April 9, 2020. The summit will be offered again soon. Check it Out!!
App developers have fallen in love with the concept of Minimum Viable Product aka MVP. Wikipedia defines minimum viable product (MVP) as “a version of a product with just enough features to satisfy early customers and provide feedback for future product development.”
This development model might make some sense for consumer software or even some business data analytics but how does it work for mission critical software and those apps that allow remote connectivity to those data resources? MVP is problematic in these cases at best.
Most mission critical software development organizations understand that robust testing is necessary, yet sometimes the specter of the MVP mentality sneaks its camel nose under the tent. Think this does not happen? Think again.
The Boeing 737 Max 8 is one current example of this phenomena. One can argue that the costs to this organization, its customers and the flying public have been astronomical and perhaps not measurable.
Many of us will not be flying any time soon and many months ago this writer has been told by a knowledgeable individual that safe work around for the Max8 software issues have always been readily available—even before the crashes. There is a more onerous issue that affects everyone on the planet is widely accepted by policy makers.
We extend the construct of MVP to Minimum Viable Thought. MVT is defined as, “The version of a decision that the decision makers believe will be accepted by organizational executives and public policy makers.”
As of publication, this statement is posted on The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. “To construct our “Current projection” (the line that shows what we think will most likely happen), we assume that in each location the trend of easing mandates will continue at its current trajectory until the daily death rate reaches a threshold of 8 deaths per million. If the daily death rate in a location exceeds that threshold, we are assuming that mandates will be reintroduced for a six-week period.”
We do not dispute modelers making assumptions. We do that same. However, this caveat. Decisions made based modeling assumptions such as these often lead to cataclysmic results.
The concept of MVP can be a slippery slope. In an era of rapid software/data release, the risk to the public whether in airplanes or a pandemic can be huge.
The assessment of such technological solutions needs to be robust and thought through. Not the knee jerk response often seen.
How do you assure new technology implementation does not material negatively impact on your business?
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Current events may have us all longing for the ‘good ole days.’ Sounds good on paper but not something any of us can realize. Nostalgia aside we all must continue to slog on. It is after all a one-way trip and there is no Delorean to help us.
The Challenge of Change
People change all the time and we have covered this before in this series a number of times. However, some change is not without transformational difficulties. The literature is replete with case studies where organization/industry transformation failed and sometimes spectacularly.
Depending on one’s perspective sometime during February or March of this year, the global population became generally aware of a new and potentially devastating pathogen. Dramatic (even draconian) measures were taken, and we were all convinced of the potential for global devastation. Global Stay-At-Home orders wrecked economies but most of us dutifully obeyed.
As of this writing, in a world of almost 8 billion people, according to a credible source, Johns Hopkins:
Cumulative Cases; Less than 8 million
Deaths; Less than 500k
Recovered; Approximately 3.7 million
Rarely, emphasized math suggests that there are approximately 3.7 million Active cases.
For those of you in the US (~330 million) like I am, the math looks like this:
Cumulative Cases; Just over 2 million
Deaths; Approximately 116k
Recovered; Approximately 560k
Active US cases are approximately 1.4 million.
Credibility Factor
We have been told Covid-19 Armageddon was at hand. Hospitals would be overwhelmed, etc. No Mask and now Mask. Most show few if any symptoms. Now asymptomatic will kill the elderly and so it goes. This list of contradictory positions goes on and change is justified by our “New Knowledge” about the pathogen.
So What?
Now we are told a new wave is coming from Memorial Day celebrations, protests and more from the phasing out of the lockdown. How is the population reacting to these new pronouncements of doom?
By engaging in normal human interactions. Mask free in many cases to the chagrin of the medical experts. One expert suggested that the United States does not have a coherent Covid-19 national policy.
From my high school Civics, class, ”Enumerated powers are specific powers granted to Congress by the United States Constitution. The framers of the Constitution wanted to ensure the new federal government would not become an overreaching entity that might subject the people to the oppression from which they had fled. To that end, they listed, in Article 1, Section 8 of the Constitution, the authority over certain specific things. Authority over every issue not enumerated, or assigned to Congress, is reserved for the individual states.”
My interpretation, States are the governing body for most activities including a pandemic.
Therefore, each state is charged with managing this process within federal law, taking guidance from resources such as the Center for Disease Control. This is 200+ year-old policy.
Failure to Launch
In recent days, this writer has encountered numerous individuals seemingly in violation of the tenets of Covid-19 response. After months of predicting the end of human interaction as we have known it and in the face of numbers that just don’t add up, we are told it isn’t over yet. Seemingly entrenched positions prevail although data and subsequent rationale are fungible.
Lessons Learned
Much is being said about fundamental changes to industry, i.e., oil and gas, airlines, and others. Societal change is presented as fait accompli and the time is now!
The history of transformation does not support these hypotheses.
Sustained change requires significant ongoing energy from catalysis. Not the continuation of exogenous events but continued commitment to answer the What’s In It for Me question we all ask when confronted with a new model.
Current events will fade and life as we knew it will likely continue. To be sure, there will be some change but disruptive transformation in the social fabric pundits are predicting are unlikely based on the past and typical human behavior.
How will You Assure Transformation is Sustained?
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We presented,Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learnedat the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 on April 9, 2020. The summit will be offered again soon. Check it Out!!
In a recent Harvard Business Review, I was struck by an article about Best Practices for small businesses. From that piece, “To successfully navigate Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous (VUCA) challenges like Covid-19, family business leaders can look to best practices from another organization that specializes in VUCA situations—the U.S. military’s Special Operations Forces (SOF)” (emphasis added). There are a lot of good ideas in the article that organizations can implement immediately. Moreover, we have long recognized that properly vetted and adjusted as necessary, Best Practices from others can add significant value to organizations in other industries.
Out of the Darkness
It is easy to be overwhelmed these days. Mildly put, most if not all organizations were thrown into chaos in less than a month. Depending on your business you are either partially operating or still waiting to open-up.
Regardless, how you work in June will be different than early March (~60 days as of this writing). Traditional recession management and recovery techniques may not be applicable this time.
There are lots of ideas about how to use technology going forward. Digitalization, IoT, IT-OT, among others are hawked as THE solution. Problem is, it is not that simple, and it takes time and money to implement. Many midsize firms do not have those privileges/resources.
There are a lot of actions most organizations can take without major CAPEX investments in time and money.
Years ago, we recognized that certain industrial sectors, particularly those with a high-risk profile such as energy or others deemed to be part of Critical Infrastructures face unique challenges. Some have a tendency towards incremental change or even the status quo. Change is often slow with setbacks.
Moreover, for every major firm there can be thousands of organizations in the supply chain ecosystems all of which must work well if total costs and profitability for all are to be effectively addressed.
This seemingly daunting task yet it need not be. There is a solution set available that can help organizations manage through this dark period and into the light, thriving.
The mission of The Rapid Response Institute is;
“Helping Clients Achieve Organizational Agility, Resiliency and Sustainability”
To that end, we have developed solutions, methodologies, and tools enabling enterprises of all sizes to not just survive but thrive after disruptive events. Much of this is either free or at low cost.
Rapid Response
In our 2009 White Paper, Rapid Response Management: Thriving in the New World Order we posited our new approach to managing your business. “Rapid Response Management (RRM) is an organizational construct or mental model that enables the organization and its key partners to rapidly sense changes and respond accordingly–quickly. While it maximizes the effectiveness of management knowledge to address change, it is not simply gut feel. Rather it is a simple yet sophisticated, methodical paradigm any organization can quickly and inexpensively implement.”
RRM is a creative and well documented method for running your business. The thinking was well advanced by 2009 and has been further ‘stress tested’ over the past decade.
We have updated RRM with our Operational Excellence Platform and interested readers are invited to check that out as well. Our offerings are designed to help our clients get through crises such as Covid-19.
We are updating this white paper and it will be available as an e-book in the near future. If you would like to reserve a free copy, Contact us.
We are here to shed some light during this dark period. For no cost, no obligation discussion contact us. We can put decades of experience dealing with business cycle adversity on your team.
Feel like your trapped? You’re NOT!
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Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to third-party materials. They are provided for education and entertainment only.
We presented,Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learnedat the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 on April 9, 2020. The summit will be offered again soon. Check it Out!!
Let me understate, ‘working in the petroleum sector has always been challenging.’ Now we find ourselves in a major economic downturn caused by a Covid-19 pandemic and aided and abetted by an international crude oil price war.
Once again, many thousands have lost their livelihood and possibly not return to a similar job as the industry consolidates and restructures both organizationally and operationally. However, much has changed and for the better since this writer first experienced a major retraction in the 1980s.
Back in the day, choices then included sending hundreds of hardcopy resumes hoping the right person would find/like it out of an overflowing inbox or leave the sector and look for better pastures. Collectively, impacted individuals tried both. Certainly, there was not a feeling that we were in command of our destiny, even if we knew someone who could help us.
Today, we are the Master and Commander of our voyage!
I See Things
Visions of armies of energy workers becoming software programmers are probably hallucinations. Some might but many will not have the ability, temperament or interest in such a feat.
There are always winners and losers in any disruption. Already, there are signs that the traditional retail sales processes are accelerating on a path they were already on. Upscale restaurants now feature ‘take out.’
Some who once worked for manufacturers, oil producers and other core companies will most likely find new careers with suppliers to those firms. This may be especially true of supply chain, business process and technologies such as IT and engineering. For example, operators will look to Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) and qualified suppliers to implement their Digitalization business models.
Those with technical skills such as Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics (STEM) will be in demand for both recall to older business models but more likely to enable new ones. Other emerging energy sectors include renewables and their derivatives.
Entire, global business models are under scrutiny and change is inevitable. Older sluggish companies will be replaced with new agile entrants. Just look at how Amazon evolved from an online book seller to their current position.
How to Disrupt
What if I want to strike out? For those who feel alone and not sure which way to turn, there is help available right now! As far as I know everything listed below is at no cost and RRI knows these resources directly—no third parties.
Do you have a great idea for an energy-based startup company, but not sure where to start? I am on the leadership team of the Global Energy Mentors and we provide free mentoring services. Check us out and you do not have to reside in the Houston metro area!
Looking for help from the Small Business Administration and again, don’t know who to call? Let us know and will put you in contact with the Houston office.
Got a quick question? Contact us for 30 minutes of free online/email consulting limited to the first 50 and perhaps more. We know of numerous additional resources and hopefully can direct you.
Moreover, almost anyone can develop an App about any subject or issue. What’s bugging you for which there is NO App or other solution? Guess what, you now the Subject Matter Expert in that field. Search App Development for all manor of free or low cost tools and help.
Changes of the magnitude discussed herein can be daunting but there is no reason for any of us to fail in this transformation. When faced with few or no options in your current career environment—What do you have to lose?
Why let this disruption control you? You control it!
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Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to third-party materials. They are provided for education and entertainment only.
We presented,Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learnedat the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 on April 9, 2020. The summit will be offered again soon. Check it Out!!
April 20, 2020 marks the tenth anniversary of one of the most horrific incidents in the upstream oil and gas sector—Deepwater Horizon. In addition to the tragic loss of eleven lives, the sector forever changed. Immediate restructuring of federal oversight resulted in the establishment of the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) and their subsequent Safety Culture Policy.
The industry changed too. One of the first efforts following Macondo was the formation of the Marine Well Containment Company. Its mission is to rapidly respond to Deepwater incidents in the Gulf of Mexico. Subsequent organizations are also positioned around the world.
Moreover, the industry embraced Safety Culture and continues to improve based upon Systemic Safety Cultures across organizational ecosystems. These processes are incorporated into Operations Management Systems that incorporate SEMS as part of Operational Excellence Initiatives.
In 2014, the sector faced another slap in the face with the collapse of oil prices, yet again. Now it is the double whammy of the Covid-19 pandemic coupled with the price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia.
Darkest Before the Dawn
Each time the industry is forced to retrench, it follows a predictable pattern. Reduction in force (layoffs), corporate restructuring and turning to technology are among the most common steps.
This chart from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis shows the employment levels for the upstream sector since the early 1970s. One can make the case that the level of employment in the sector is flat at best. One likely cause is automation and the extensive use of information technology to manage the business.
Note: This chart is current as of March 2020
In 1970, the US population was a little more than 205 million. Now it tops 330 million. This supports a hypothesis that the per capita employment by the sector is decreasing. We expect this to continue.
The Digital Oilfield marches on with the advent of IT-OT Convergence, Digitalization, etc. This process has been underway since at least the late 1970s with the advent of the first computerized data acquisition systems. Likely, much longer if one considers for example, the invention of electric well logging by the Schlumberger brothers in 1926.
Certainly, other technological advances have contributed as well. The often maligned fracturing the rock traces its roots back the beginning of the industry (circa 1862). Contemporary hydraulic fracturing was started by Halliburton in 1949 and shale ‘fracing’ by Mitchell Energy & Development Corporation during the 1990s.
While we have not done the detailed research, historically oil companies have outsourced to engineering firms, IT companies and others that provide a service as opposed to full time employees. Today’s disrupted employees may find better careers in the emerging sectors that support petroleum operations as well as other sectors.
Schumpeter’s Creative Destruction is a work in ‘the patch’ today. A lot has happened in the Deepwater Horizon incident. Here’s to calmer waters this next ten years!
How Are You Positioning Your Career to Capitalize on Disruption?
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Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to third-party materials. They are provided for education and entertainment only.
We presented,Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learnedat the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 on April 9, 2020. The summit will be offered again soon. Check it Out!!
The anecdote, ‘A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to’ wherever manifests itself for a number of paths. One interpretation; we often end up somewhere other than expected.
We find ourselves at another historical precipice. Some suggest Armageddon, the end of life as we know it and the emergence of a new normal. This writer only agrees with the last two words.
New Normal
Since the advent of Covid-19 in the United States (probably before) the medical community has been doing some great things at hyper speed. Now it is hard to keep up with the creative, innovative and downright amazing work being done at the global scale.
Some argue that the new normal will include an army of remote workers. Probably some truth to that but perhaps more importantly will be the recognition that society can quickly ‘scale’ to the global level when confronted with new and unknown threats.
Reduced Cycle Time and Cost
This pundit has long advocated that the use of knowledge enabled by technology can reduce project cycle time dramatically. It can also significantly reduce project cost as well. If we visualize the Covid-19 global initiative as a project, then perhaps most importantly we can decrease the timeline pointedly.
To be clear, this writer has no medical training and is only prognosticating that the use of knowledge enabled by technology can reduce the overall time and impact of the pandemic. After all, this is not 1918!
For example, many will be familiar with the TV sitcom, M*A*S*H, set in the Korean War of the early 1950s. We are seeing modern day versions of the Mobile Army Surgical Hospital with the deployment of new ‘temporary’ hospital beds to virus hot spots like NYC. The medical profession has established long standing triage protocols as well.
Moreover, the use of 3D printing has augmented the medical equipment manufacturing process in ways no one could have foreseen on January 1, 2020. Changes in Clinical Trial protocols and other pharmaceutical related processes are, as the saying goes, ‘on steroids’ destroying this virus.
The list goes on and shortly after this publication, this post will probably be outdated—the rate of positive change is so explosive right now.
Donald Rumsfeld gets credit for saying, “There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don’t know we don’t know.” However, this construct has its roots in the 1950s.
I am betting that last sentence will fall sooner rather than later. We are rapidly learning what we don’t know we don’t know.
Godspeed to all on the front line and those of us who are not will continue to support you in every way known and about the be known that we can. This writer grows less concerned about the final outcome every day. It seems that collectively Humankind is rising up to the challenge. We will prevail!
How is your knowledge enabled to contribute to the demise of this pandemic?
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Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to third-party materials. They are provided for education and entertainment only.
We will be presenting,Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learnedat the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 beginning April 5, 2020. Check it Out!!
We have been hearing for years how, Big Data Analysis will help us optimize our businesses and generate performance at levels here to for never hear of. So where is it now?
Two major sources for data on the Covid-19 virus are Johns Hopkins University and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This is fine at one level. Living in the Houston, Texas metropolitan area, this pundit can see a general (real time) overview of the situation from either.
However, my home is on the west side of the city. I was recently surprised to learn that most of the local exposure is on the east side; 30+ miles from my domicile. Is my risk lower than I am being told by the authorities? Or is it the same or higher?
Why am I staying at home? Perhaps the result of a blunt policy instrument?
It appears to me that most medical professionals are not Data Scientists. Absolutely knowledgeable in their field, including pathogens (I personally know many in the field including a pathologist). Is that system taking help from data scientists? I have not heard that it is.
Additionally, if the argument is we don’t yet have enough data, this holder of a doctoral degree will argue that Small Data set modeling can be effective as well. My doctoral dissertation was founded on these statistics.
I have no doubt that the best minds are working this problem. However, if policy makers take a hammer to the nail, when perhaps a series of tacks is appropriate, significant economic damage will continue.
The tack approach appears to be what we are hearing about certain parts of the United States coming back online in a week or so. The concept of months some advocate makes no sense to this writer. We will see social unrest long before that.
The Big Data Analysis sector has been pressing their value proposition and software/solutions for years as a way of optimizing businesses. Why is the sector quiet regarding coronavirus?
If we can parse data and sell web advertisements based on ‘clicks’ why can’t we figure this out a level of granularity that allows the economy to restart (at least in some geographies)? Get to work guys and prove my concerns wrong!
Finally, what is the role for Artificial Intelligence (AI)? Its advocates suggest it has magical powers and it has been used to solve other problems. Prove it on this global stage!
Where are Big Data and AI in this fight?
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Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to third-party materials. They are provided for education and entertainment only.
We will be presenting,Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learnedat the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 beginning April 5, 2020. Check it Out!!
Prognosticators of the future, including this one are speculating on the Post-Covid-19 world. As with every disruptive crisis, things change going forward. This one will be no different and will probably accelerate certain trends, end some and generate many new opportunities. Some industry sectors and many organizations will need to transmute the way they do business.
One thing that will not change is our dependencies on one another both for business and the global society in general. We may modify our supply chain procedures, work more remotely, change training and education processes and so forth and so one.
The use of certain information technologies and the need to protect them from maleficent (computer) viruses will most likely explode. The oil and gas sector will restructure itself as it has many times over its history. Winners and losers will emerge.
There is a major underpinning for all of this—Cross Cultural Interactions. In this new world order successful organizations (including governments) that develop and sustain a Strong Bond Governance model can thrive. Others that do not will most likely struggle. We first made this case when the oil and gas Deepwater sector was struggling post Deepwater Horizon and again during the last oil price crash.
Building a Strong Remote Working Culture and Brand
Probably the trend towards more Remote Working will accelerate after the Covid-19 crisis passes. To the extent an organization prepares its ecosystem for this transformation it may secure competitive value.
Many industrial organizations are not early adopters of technology. Their preference is to let others lead and implement later in the technology life cycle. While this approach worked for many in the past, it may not be the best strategy going forward.
In 2004, we posited that Early Adopters actually captured the most value from new technology. Integral “Calculus tells us that the area under the curve is approximately the sum of the areas of inscribed rectangles.”
Adjusted for risk, this hypothesis is supported by mathematics. Check it out, it might work for your organization.
As stated in our last blog, there are underly concerns when vast numbers are working remotely for long periods of time. One suspects there will be some media reporting on not just the technical difficulties but the human issues working remotely.
At one level, there appears to be a clash between the value of early adoption and human challenges of remote work. Management must be aware of this challenge and put processes in place to address real human concerns.
Enhanced Cross Cultural & Diversity Training
Organizations continue to be diverse including a number of cross-cultural characteristics based on geography, division, etc. Managing diversity and cultural challenges are more acute when working remotely.
To build this strong culture and be known as a ‘thought leadership’ organization requires training. As we know, training can be online and not just workshop or classes.
We humans can interact with each other in a meaningful way playing a serious game. Our Cloud based Cross Cultural Serious Game enables diverse individuals and teams to engage in real world scenarios from remote locations. We have found this type of training to be invaluable for diverse and remote team interaction.
The expected increase in organizational restructuring will lead the merger and acquisition activity in the near future. This cross-cultural training tool can add value therein as well.
How will YOU position yourself for the next step?
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Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to third-party materials. They are provided for education and entertainment only.
We will be presenting, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 beginning April 5, 2020. Check it Out!!
In the middle of a global pandemic, all of us who can are advised to work from home. Many of us have worked remotely for a while now. Whether traveling, dealing with sick children, avoiding traffic or dealing with a natural disaster remote management has become part of our business DNA.
Yet, this pundit was a bit surprised at some of the social chatter about working from home for extended periods. After all, I have been working remotely for decades. Turns out, these fears have a basis in fact.
It appears there are two culprits at work here. First is our individual behaviors and secondly, there are serious productivity concerns.
First Culprit
A day or two, here and their remote working is fine. Things can change however; when it becomes a way of life and not everyone is well suited to labor this way.
While it all sounds good on paper, working as an individual remotely is a difficult thing to do. Humans are social beings. Most of us need to interact with others; daily.
The concept of working in my ‘underwear’ is not sustainable. Like all aspects of life, a structured process is required. First of all, ‘get up, clean up, and dress up.’ This is not the weekend where you check the odd email or holiday where you do the same on a beach with an umbrella drink.
It is your job, the source of your income and often self-worth. The risks to both of these is high when working remotely.
While not directly on this topic. This is one of the best videos on motivation and focus. Well worth your time to view it.
Working at home requires discipline as well as your ‘in office’ work ethic. Challenge will be to sustain this effort.
Second Culprit
Some sectors such as Information Technology have encouraged its employees and contractors to work from home on a permanent basis. This was long ago considered dogma. Except that sometimes it does not work.
In 2017, I noticed that IBM was ending its ‘work from home’ policy for many workers. In their statement at the time, “In many fields, such as software development and digital marketing, the nature of work is changing, which requires new ways of working. “We are bringing small, self-directed agile teams in these fields together.” Has anything changed in less than three years?
Further confirmation of this model can be found with most of the technology innovators and accelerators today. Often accused of selling real estate these mostly for-profit enterprises claim that working together in a centralized environment encourages collaboration and cross pollination of ideas.
This is the current common business model for start up organizations around the world. In the minds of many, it must work and add value to the creative process.
Another New Normal
Is this a paradigm shift or just a short term inconvenience? Reality, probably a bit of both. E-learning has been growing and this may give that sector a boost. Software development, the presumed online job, maybe not so much.
While it is likely that Structural Dynamics are at work the current covid-19 situation. Our Relationships, Behaviors, Conditions (RBC) model is a useful tool going forward.
We are changing your blog model for the near future and will be developing this issue in more detail and offering actionable solutions. In subsequent posts we will develop this further.
In the meantime, if your challenged by the requirement to work remotely contact us for no cost, no obligation mentoring.
How is Your Organization Assuring Productivity Remains During the Crisis?
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According to legend, the term KISS or ‘Keep It Simple, Stupid’ was coined by Kelly Johnson, lead engineer at the Lockheed Skunk Works and noted by the US Navy as early as 1960. Subsequent phrases such as ‘Less is More’ followed.
At first glance, it makes sense not to overly complicate a product, process or project. Certainly, a non-technical audience such as senior management will need to the issue and risk management strategy explained in terms they understand. However, in our search for Red. Yellow, Green ratings are we overly simplifying complex environments?
Albert Einstein is created with saying, “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.” This begs the questions, where is that line and how do you know if you’ve crossed it?
One of the mantras of the High Reliability Organization Mindfulness is, Preoccupation with Failure. This is not defined as with Normal Accident Theory, where failures are inevitable. Rather, it is an understanding the modern complex systems one must be resolute in one’s focus on operational issues and rapidly move to normalize out of limit situations.
In 2016 (and earlier) we made the case that after the Ebola outbreak in Dallas, the Public Health sector was resilient and that issue was contained quickly (links to all three parts of this series provided below). In this writer’s opinion, this was not possible if the process was ‘worked’ at a too simple level. Lessons learned from that and other contagion incidents may be useful combating Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19).
The overused phrase, “failure is not an option” is the root of contemporary Operational Excellence business models. In fact, failure happens but mitigating its impact and rapidly recovering are the hallmark of successful organizations.
The graphic is a fractal. From the Fractal Foundation, “A fractal is a never-ending pattern. Fractals are infinitely complex patterns that are self-similar across different scales. They are created by repeating a simple process over and over in an ongoing feedback loop. Driven by recursion, fractals are images of dynamic systems – the pictures of Chaos. Geometrically, they exist in between our familiar dimensions. Fractal patterns are extremely familiar, since nature is full of fractals. For instance: trees, rivers, coastlines, mountains, clouds, seashells, hurricanes, etc.”
Our world is a complex place. Processes and technologies must deal with that fact. Successful risk management strategies must take Einstein’s wisdom into consideration.
Does Your Organization Have a Robust Enterprise Risk Mitigation Strategy?
This discussion could and probably should be a book. However, we will try to summarize the key differentiators in a few hundred words.
When I first studied economics, a course during my MBA (1981), I was exposed to the Keynesian economic model. This construct was long taught by professors such as John Kenneth Galbraith of Harvard.
Only later did I learn there were other approaches to the ‘dismal science.’ For example, Nobel Laureate Milton Friedman is one of the most acclaimed advocates of the Chicago School.
While there are other several schools, i.e., Austrian, the following two represent somewhat polar opposites. A comparative analysis maybe useful. More importantly, depending on the approach a country dictates, a firm’s geo-political risk may be different.
Chicago School of Economics
According to the Encyclopedia Britannica, “At the heart of the Chicago school’s approach is the belief in the value of free markets. Simply stated, the Chicago school asserts that markets without government interference will produce the best outcomes for society (i.e., the most-efficient outcomes). A primary assumption of the school is the rational-actor (self-interest-maximizing) model of human behavior, according to which people generally act to maximize their self-interest and will, therefore, respond to appropriately designed price incentives.”
Keynesian Economics
According to Investopedia, “it is an economic theory of total spending in the economy and its effects on output and inflation. Keynesian economics was developed by the British economist John Maynard Keynes during the 1930s in an attempt to understand the Great Depression. Keynes advocated for increased government expenditures and lower taxes to stimulate demand and pull the global economy out of the depression.” As mentioned above, this theory remains popular.
Answering the ‘So What?’ Question
Theses men were semi-contemporaries. The thinking of Milton Friedman (1912-2006) and John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946) chronologically overlaps. On the surface, this might appear as the titanic struggle between advocates of big government and individual self-interest; the stuff of political debates Yet there is a micro-level.
Most organizations deal with a number of cultures and we have discussed that before herein. One’s decision for doing business in locales with different governing models may impact on the revenue stream and its profitability and the risk profile.
One must consider the governing style as a sub-culture in the Government Bubble in our cross cultural engagement model. Keeping in mind that each city state and country may view the role of government differently.
How Does Your Strategy Account for Differing Economic Models?
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By one measure, the US presidential primary season is off to a rough start. In a small state, counting the ballots became a challenge. Wasn’t technology supposed to solve the problems of past confusions?
Yet the mechanism seemingly failed—again! How is this different from the Boeing Max 8 disaster? In one sense it isn’t.
Disclaimer: The only information this author has on the recent electoral IT problem is publicly available and he is not aware of anyone involved in that process that he may know personally. This piece is only an opinion about a technology issue.
Technology Adoption Process
App developers strive to get to MVP as rapidly as possible. Wikipedia defines a Minimum Viable Product as, “A version of a product with just enough features to satisfy early customers and provide feedback for future product development. Gathering insights from an MVP is often less expensive than developing a product with more features, which increases costs and risk if the product fails, for example, due to incorrect assumptions.”
Speed is of the essence in software development. Yet, a rapid time to market should not sacrifice adequate analysis and assurance the software is robustly ‘stress tested.’
Apps are moving from simple tools designed to call an independent driver of transport or order a burger. They are now integral parts of enterprise solutions with broad implications if they fail. This changes the fundamental project development process and benchmarks for release. This is true for all App developers, even if their employee base is one or the development process is outsourced entirely.
Release Maturity
Most new technologies start is some’s ‘garage.’ Whether Steve Jobs’ or 3M, the processes are ad hoc and getting a so-called ‘Alpha’ product is the goal. Those third parties who accept and test it know their risks and exposure. Such customers would never use that release in a production environment.
Other maturity models include Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) by NASA and the European Association of Research and Technology Organisations. At a minimum, testing must assure it is fit-for-purpose and that the product can ‘scale’ to meet the expected demand.
Technology vendors to ‘critical infrastructure’ sectors such as oil and gas often express exasperation at the sometime slow take up of new solutions. Individuals that take excessive risks deploying new technology may literally be putting their career at risk as well as their critical processes. Therefore, they tend to be risk averse.
There are many examples of what not to do rolling out new technology. This month’s primary election is just the latest. The adage, ‘no one wants to make the front page of The Wall Street Journal’ has a lot of truth to it. Make sure you and your customer get media coverage for the right reasons.
How Do You Know Technology is Ready for Enterprise Wide Deployment?
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The advent of 5 G so soon after 4 G—Humm. What’s next? How many G’s are there?
In 1965, Gordon Moore put forth the construct that the density of transistors in integrated circuits doubled each year. The so-called Moore’s Law has governed technology growth ever since. However; over 50 years later, some argue that we may be far up that power curve. One conjectures if the latter statement is correct.
In 1899, Charles H. Duell then the Commissioner of US patent is purported to have said, “Everything that can be invented has been invented.” Mr. Duell died in 1920 so he missed many of the ‘new’ things we now take for granted.
Marketers tend to categorize in buckets; Boomers, Gen Xers, Millennials and so forth. Do any of these labels matter? Probably not. The same is true for technology tags as well.
Life, technology, knowledge et al marches on, just like it has throughout human history. Will we see the advent of 50 G networks? Most likely; with 100 G hot on its heels!
Less we forget, the current version of the cell phone (iPhone and its equivalents) was first released in 2007. Much has changed in the last 13 years and we can expect that arc to continue with disruptive new mobile technology crashing in at some point.
Agility
Most think of an ‘agile enterprise’ as information technology driven. In this writer’s opinion, this is a narrow perspective. The word ‘agility’ is defined in terms of power and thinking. In other words, the ability to make good decisions with the capacity to implement them.
In this hyper-technology environment, it is not the adoption of a particular rendition, but the capability to incorporate the appropriate new in an economic manner. This is true whether the organization is an ‘early adopter’ or even a ‘laggard.’
For decades, organizational strategy has been enabled by technology. There is no reason to change that model with many G’s to follow!
How Does Your Organization Ingest New Technologies?
Enjoy this flash back to the 1960’s.
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Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to other third-party materials. They are provided for education and entertainment only.
Depending on one’s perspective, 2020 is either the end of the last decade or the beginning of this one. One can argue that our actual birthday is the day we were born and 12 months later we are one year old. This suggests that on our tenth birthday we have lived a decade and a new one begins. Probably this conundrum will still be a subject of discussion in 3020.
Going to our favorite breakfast cafe the Sunday after New Year’s Day, the parking lot was overflowing from patrons of the local gym in the strip center. New Year’s resolutions in full force. History suggests we will not have a parking problem by sometime in February.
Another Failure of Change Management?
Perhaps, but good intentions without an execution plan and realistic metrics play a role too. Clarity of vision is important during times of transformation.
Organizational lucidity is also important. The annual Letter from the Chairman of every US public company will extol virtues for their coming fiscal year. Note to those in sales—this is what is important to management, i.e., the organization’s value proposition so read it and act accordingly.
Vision Duality
We all have a vision about the future of our career. However, another vision is emerging—machines. One topical subject is the so-called Digital Twin or a representation of reality as a 3D graphic.
This pundit and others have espoused this tool in support of Operational Excellence initiatives. This extends human vision in ways that were not available in the past.
One can surmise as this year progresses, clarity in operations may get much better. It follows that those willing to take advantage and ‘change’ how they see the world will progress faster and farther than those who choose not to.
Is the Future in the Stars?
Probably, but not as many astrologers would have us believe.
Stars will align this year for each individual who takes the initiative to make that happen. Not astrological destiny, but proactive leadership with new ‘star’ management systems.
The Year is Almost Three Percent Old, What Have You Done So Far?
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Generally, this time of year humans are wont to look back on the closing year and assess the good and the bad, and dare I say the ugly? We celebrate successes, review the not so successes, and what is left undone. This process prepares us for the New Year’s resolutions that are often then broken.
Today, we will see lots of stories on the accomplishments of the year, notables that passed from this life and other celebrations and questions about the waning hours. In this piece, let us ask another question.
The subject of the Man—Machine relationship has long been the subject of comment and speculation. It remains so. Where are we along this path?
Challenges remain. Recently, the Boeing’s Starliner space vehicle failed to reach its planned orbit. The glitch is apparently in the capsule’s clock where a programming error misinterpreted the stage of the mission.
News media reporting suggests that if astronauts had been on board, they may have been able to override the system and correct the problem. This is an area we have addressed herein on several occasions. When does the human act? Recent articles include:
The decision model whether to override the computer remains elusive. Likely, it will for some time.
In this writer’s opinion, it is currently difficult to develop an appropriate governance model for this emerging man-machine interface. That said, the task is upon society and individuals and organizations must proactively engage.
Not Just Digitalization
There is much ado about the promise of digitalization and speculation about its ability to be a game changer. One wonders how any technology available to all warrants such status?
Since the advent of the Turing machine, circa 1936 and its enablement of the winning of Word War II (at least in Europe), there has been a level of trust in information technology that is not always warranted. Today, how many of us will sit with our children in the backseat of a driverless automobile?
Human factors must be considered when new technology models are put forth. After all, humans still govern, right?
Maturity Assessment
Building on the CMMI and our own maturity model development methodology we put forth a set of constructs. Beginning in 2004, when we released our Roadmap study. It was one of the earliest, if not the first industry wide assessment of the so-called digital oilfield and guide for organizations to transform themselves with this enabling technological model.
As part of that study we posited a maturity model that still has applicability for heavy industry and its use of information technologies to manage the business. An updated version is shown in the following figure.
For many organizations, Level 3 is satisfactory and accomplished the required. One can argue that an airline autopilot would be at least Level 4.
The current issues Boeing has with is space capsule and 737 suggests that may not be the case. By the way, this is not limited to this manufacturer, others have similar issues as well.
In the opinion of this writer, as a society we are at best Level 2 when it comes to digitalization. What do readers think?
Paraphrasing a famous election cycle quote, “It’s the software, stupid.” Are we near a digital tipping point? Perhaps not.
Much work is yet to be done. Fear not for the robots taking your job—at least for the moment.
What is Your Digitalization Management Maturity Level?
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A year ago, it was the pleasure of this blogger to report that Santa Clause completed yet another successful global fulfillment process AND importantly, the process was in compliance with the US Federal Aviation Authority’s (FAA) regulations. A great deal of progress since the advent of one red light on the nose of the lead reindeer!
This year we are once again pleased to report that not only have the flying sled and its power plants remained in compliance with the FAA but has now taken additional steps forward. Incorporating new technologies and processes, safety has been enhanced in the following manner:
Addressing Slips, Trips and Fails with new safety/skip proof landing gear
A new Confined Space program along with appropriate personal safety gear
An alarm Klaxon and Better Lighting
Enhance Safety Restraints such as airbags and an overhead guard
Extensive Head, Vision, and Hearing Protection systems
Better Work Place Violence technology enabled processes
A new Cargo Restraint system
It looks like the arctic region of the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) outreach program is having great success. Interested readers are invited to review the above safety Infographic for further details and perhaps new insights.
Simplified Business Model
There are a lot of lessons herein for those who don’t live at a mythical north pole. First, it seems that much if not all the safety improvements made are inexpensive and easily implemented.
Next, change management and new policies appear to be welcomed by those affected. Answering the, “What’s In It For Me” question when adopting new technologies.
Management is also ‘walking the walk’ with employees by driving the sled and taking the same risks as the rest of the team fulfilling customer requirements, i.e., snow covered rooftops and chimneys. One can argue that this entire team is the Customer Facing part of the system. Finally, customers have high expectations that must be met, and late delivery is not an option—this project has a fixed deadline!
Stakeholder Value
With billions of children waiting and using a complex and global logistics system, this team does not disappoint. Earlier competitors have long dropped off the map.
So why with a clear monopoly does this organization still seek greater Operational Excellence with its transformational Safety Culture?
Simple—safe and excellent operational performance is good business! Less unplanned downtime increases the bottom line. Few incidents increase morale and the bottom line.
Fewer legal issues, regulatory matters, and so forth and so on positively impact the bottom line. With such significant ROI, what’s a stakeholder not to like?
Is Your Operational Safety on Par with Ole Saint Nick?
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Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to other third-party materials. They are provided for education and entertainment only.
Watch almost any media talk show and the interviewer will often interrupt the guest trying to answer the question just posed. This is such a common phenomenon that it is accepted behavior perhaps driven by ratings that come from on-air confrontation. It is part of the culture!
Why ask the question if you’re only going to impose your view in the middle of an answer? Perhaps guests are just convenient foils.
When briefing senior management, colloquial wisdom is to get to the point quickly and succinctly. Words to live by and often put forth by this pundit. Yet it is amazing how many of us violate the axiom by continuing to talk.
Truly listening with all senses is a rare skill. How often have we been in a situation such as a sales call when the customer is interrupted by members of the sales team?
It is more difficult to close a deal when the preconceived notions of the seller override the buyer’s response. Often in such a situation the client’s body language will give a clue as to her irritation when ‘talked over.’
The Power of Listening
So, you have made your pitch and are now sitting quietly waiting for the client to respond. However, the so called ‘pregnant pause’ ensues.
The overwhelming desire is to ‘jump in’ and say something to break the silence. But how does that close a deal when an offer has just been made?
Such behavior usually results in either prolonged negotiation or no deal. The human inclination to talk can be irresistible. A better behavior is to shut up and listen!
Some research shows that good listening is beneficial to both employees and their organizations. However, barriers to better listening include:
Loss of Power—The appearance of weakness or not in control of the situation
Takes Time and Effort—Daily time pressures may negatively impact on the work product
Fear of Change—The speaker must refrain from making ‘foregone conclusions’ until a response is articulated
In addition to certain listening skills, a good listener must have the ‘intention’ to become one and resist the urge to interrupt. This can become the framework for real dialogue and exchange of ideas and information.
Getting to Yes
In a TEDx Talk, the coauthor of the negotiation book, Getting to Yes discusses the value of listening in any human interaction. The investment of less than 16 minutes of your time will be enlightening. One suspects the almost 900,00 viewers would agree.
Our inherent nature to ‘rattle on’ distracts us from our goals. We recently discussed the value of understanding the difference between Wants, Likes and Needs.
Truly listening and understanding your counterpart’s feelings (or deeply personal Needs) will unlock the key to getting a deal done—Yes! This is a major component of servant leadership.
R B C
Human (B)ehaviors in certain situations or (C)onditions establish (R)elationships between two or more parties. We have been extending this construct for almost 25 years and it has broad applicability. What kind of Relationship is established if one or more individuals do not listen to others?
How Well Do You Listen to Your Colleagues and Family Members and Do They Listen to You?
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Several weeks ago, as an amateur history buff, I was watching a documentary about World War I. During one segment the commentator discussed the apparent fact that if soldiers refused to charge out of their trenches across an open field into the teeth of waiting machine guns they would be shot.
The brutality of such a command by (so-called) leadership is appalling. It may have been one thing for Alexander the Great’s armies to engage in open battles with sharp pointed objects as weapons.
It is quite another for General Pickett’s infantry at Gettysburg to charge cannons and 50+ years later to repeatedly try the same tactic (by both sides) at horrific costs. Generals always fight the last war, so the saying goes.
This blog is not about some of history’s follies, it is about learning so as not to repeat the mistakes of others. These lessons apply to readers’ daily business world as well.
When New Technology is Deployed
New disruptive technology can tear the societal fabric. Some old jobs and companies disappear, and new ones thrive. This process has been repeated since antiquity.
Our culture is having this dialogue today regarding digitalization and its suite of technological driven change, i.e., Blockchain, AI, etc. Principal issues that must be addressed include Human Factors Engineering (HFE).
“HFE places the human operator at the center of the complex operating environment. HFE recognizes that this individual or set of individuals is the puppet master and is responsible for the entire show.” In other words how do we interact with the new technological reality.
Reliable and valid HFE is the key to successful digitalization initiatives. It will be the vital to whatever is next as well.
Tyranny of the Minority
From political science, “For centuries, theorists have worried about the potential of unrestrained democracy to lead to a tyranny of the majority, in which majority groups ride roughshod over the rights of minorities. What we often see today is instead a kind of tyranny of the minority: a system in which a particularly extreme and motivated fraction of the populace can wield outsized power in the face of a majority which is either too indifferent or too scared to oppose it,” (italics added).
In most organizations, there are fewer leaders than those who fabricate a ‘work product.’ The responsibility of leadership is to set the vision, mission and goal as well as enabling the organization with the tools and support necessary to reach targeted stakeholder value.
But what if this minority group is the slowest to come to grips with disruptive forces? In the face of newness, they may ‘keep doing what they have always been doing.” In such an environment, the organization will likely not reap the same reward as in the past.
Does too indifferent or too scared describe your organization’s ecosystem workforce? One suspects It would be good to know.
Fast Fail
In our last blog we discussed the rapid assessment of technology and when to drop it if it does not appear to be working out. Perhaps, we should treat managerial processes the same way. After a horrific and visible failure in leadership, conceivably one preserves best by looking for alternative?
If charging head long across an open field leads to disaster, why keep doing it? While a counter argument might be that we had no tools to defeat those equipped with the new technology, to this writer, that logic is suspect.
Flanking an enemy’s line or using guerrilla tactics, et. al. are as old as human confrontation. Unconventional warfare has a long record of documented success.
The business lexicon is loaded with military terminology. We often speak of business as if it is warfare, when of course it is not. There are lessons to be learned about human and organizational behavior, however.
Decades ago, the concept of Guerrilla Marketing was the rage. With the advent of social media, it has advanced, and the methodology is available to all. Huge budgets and massive media campaigns are no longer necessary.
Head-to-Head the biggest ‘guy’ usually wins. So, if you’re not him/her, DON’T DO IT!! However, the small mammals may displace slow moving dinosaurs.
Agile is not an IT term. It should be the state of mind of leaders at all levels. To charge across the open business landscape into technology designed to destroy your organization remains folly.
How Are You Leading the Charge into the Future?
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Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to other materials. They are provided for education and entertainment only.
See this 3:15 minute clip for more information on living in a World War I trench. Pathetic way for leaders to force those under their command to live.
At lunch the other day and for whatever reason, the history of the 3M Post It Note became a subject of our conversation. This technological marvel unveiled in the 1970s is still widely used today.
As with other new or disruptive technologies, the ‘sticky note’ was panned at first and for some time. According to Wikipedia, the technology was first developed in 1968. It was not until 1974 that it gained some internal company support.
When finally introduced in 1977, the pilot results were unsatisfactory. However, things started to change in 1978 when a small (focus) group of consumers were positive about the product.
The United States roll-out began in the spring of 1980, followed by Europe and Canada in 1981. A bit of trivia, the reason it was originally yellow was because yellow colored scrap paper was readily available at its inception.
Earlier the day of our lunch meeting, a discussion revolved around how long it might take an idea to become a fundable start-up company. Several participants argued that with proper guidance, the process still might take up to two years. This pundit argued that many entrepreneurs would see that as too long and become disinterested.
The legacy of the Post It Note suggests that this pundit might be incorrect. The lowly sticky note did not even begin its journey to become a Unicorn until twelve years after its technology was discovered.
In 2015, we penned a blog, Titans of the 1940s Today. The basic premise of that piece was when commenting about the Internet of Things (IoT) and its complexity, individuals such as Richard Feynman and John von Neumann (father of the 1945 computer architecture that is the basis of modern computing) had developed solutions for today prior to this author’s birth.
We stand on the shoulders of these and other giants. The challenge of every generation has been to build on what those who came before advanced. So it remains today!
Body of Knowledge
Human kind has developed a rich body of knowledge in all areas of endeavor. It is readily available for entrepreneurs as well as those employed by all types of organizations. This knowledge base has been addressed in this blog and other writings by the author. Interested readers are invited to review my blogs and newsletters dating back to the last century.
Our march through history provides all of us a ‘go-by’ that can shorten our learning curve. One example this author often cites is the depth of historical knowledge of management. Contrary to many gurus, humans have managed others and processes for many millennia.
Fail Fast, Fail Often?
If 3M or Feynman et al practiced this technology development model as most interpret it, our world might be a lesser place. Give up and move on to the next?
One interpretation suggests, “Originating from Silicon Valley and its ocean of start-ups, the real aim of “fail fast, fail often,” is not to fail, but to be iterative. To succeed, we must be open to failure—sure—but the intention is to ensure we are learning from our mistakes as we tweak, reset, and then redo if necessary.”
This same article goes on to state, “Thomas Edison, by example, ‘failed’ 9,000 times before he was successful with his light bulb invention.” Perseverance can be a lonely quality!
Don’t lose heart. Great ideas abound but must gestate. It is often said that we find our soulmate when we least expect to—I know I did. Progress is an iterative process fueled by creativity and critical thinking.
Is Your Idea a Unicorn Waiting to be Born and Mature?
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Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to other materials. They are provided for education and entertainment only.
You can contact the author more information as well.
Years ago, as part of a never-ending series of company reorganizations, a team of our change management consultants headed to the ‘field’ to interview users. Upon their return, they presented an extensive list of technology investments deemed necessary to remain competitive.
Their list focused on technology and not business concerns. Wondering, I asked who they interviewed. Proudly, they proclaimed the “field engineers.” When queried–did they talk with district managers, regional engineers and others with P&L or other managerial responsibilities, the answer was “no.”
This very expensive process by a major professional services organization simply generated a wish list of junior employees. It was what they thought they WANTED.
In our current jargon, “cool stuff.” Needless to say, none of these projects were funded. Wasted time and money by those not familiar with our business!
Today, we are driven to LIKE everything! CRM systems demand input before we have even procured the product or service. Log on to any given website and the request to complete a survey will hit you before you read the first line. Five stars or thumbs-up emojis appears to be the goal.
Do wants and likes add value? Perhaps a like is a statement of preference, but perhaps the consumer wants the digital driven question to just go away without the hassle of someone begging for a higher ranking like. Fibbing to surveys has become a national pastime.
Business should be most concerned about what a prospect or returning customer NEED. What pain point or problem does your product/service solve? If you can’t answer that question, no amount of wants and likes will add to your bottom line.
I may want a hamburger and go to a fast food restaurant with lots of likes. However, if I am in a hurry and their preference is clearly to move cars via the drive-through faster than those of us waiting inside, my need to eat quickly will not be met. I may leave without my meal or most likely not respond to a survey seeking likes. Then never return!
That lost customer will never surface in any analysis—not even one star. Enough of those responses and the business will be in jeopardy and management my not even know why. Collecting likes should never be a Key Performance Indicator (KPI).
Finding the Pain
In a recent Global Energy Mentors leadership meeting, an investment group recounted their business model as one that focused on identifying organizational ‘pain’ points. Once a specific pain was articulated, the search for new technologies that would address/resolve that pain was undertaken.
This model flies in the face of Steve Job’s, “A lot of times, people don’t know what they want until you show it to them.” That may be and sometimes unknown needs are uncovered.
However, in critical infrastructure sectors where failure is not be an option because it can be very expensive solving a known need is usually most important. Without exception, this entrepreneur’s success has been focusing on addressing industrial client known pain points. As an example, our EVPM modeling process demands input from customer groups.
In this blog series, we have referred to successful change management that comes from addressing the—what’s in it for me question. From a customer perspective; freeing ‘me’ from known pain is often more valuable than alleviating pain I did not know I had.
Does Your Value Proposition Solve a Need, Address a Want, or Simply Generate a Like?
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Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to other materials. They are provided for education and entertainment only.
You can contact the author more information as well.
Since it was first uttered in the early 1990s, the phrase “It’s the economy stupid” has been used and misused extensively. Let’s squander the lexicon one more time.
The US ‘silly’ political season is well underway and forecast to last almost 13 more months—no telling what voodoo economics will emerge. Those of us with our business noses to the grindstone must ride this stormy weather to a safe port next November.
Most have an interest in the macroeconomic policies nation states put forth but other than voting and perhaps lobbying, there is little many can do to materially impact the economy. What we can do is focus on the economics of our business—CAPEX. Hence, our daily mantra should be, “It’s the Economics Stupid.”
What Is Your Value to the Customer?
For over the fifteen our organization has been, “Helping Clients Achieve Organizational Agility, Resiliency and Sustainability.” Assisting clients develop and articulate a viable economic value proposition has been one of the most elusive and vexing challenges.
There is a strong tendency to make statements that are Overstated, Not Demonstrable, and Not Defendable. Declarations such as, “Enhanced credit control system for partners through increased information visibility” are effectively meaningless—yes, this is an actual quotation from a software company. Customers are left with the question, “What does that mean for me?”
Translate Technology into the Language of Business
If you leave your customer with the above and/or other questions regarding your value to their enterprise, likely the sale will not close. Probably, a more coherent competitor will leave with the deal.
CAPEX always undergoes extensive scrutiny; even at the Board level in some cases. While new and cool technology may ultimately be disruptive and of extremely high value, peddlers must speak the language of the Chief Financial Officer and her staff. These are ‘green’ deals!
Those tasked with generating revenue from technological solutions must also take on the role of translator. Bridging the cultural differences between cool stuff and the bottom line requires a Rosetta Stone.
The Economic Value Proposition Matrix® model (EVPM) was originally developed with a Super Independent oil and gas operator at the first part of the century to become that Rosetta Stone. Working with customers, technology providers can now prepare for the inevitable decision by the CFO. Usually, the vendor will not attend said meeting but preparing the customer staff to make the case is mandatory.
This video tells the whole story in less than 43 minutes. Is winning your next deal worth an investment of three quarters of an hour? If not, keep doing what your doing and hope for a different result.
The video makes the case that technology offerings often seems similar. The same buzzwords and euphemisms often confused clients and make it appear that since the solutions are basically the same, just go with the low dollar. Rising above this clutter is required to be successful.
How is Your Value Proposition Better Than Your Competitors’?
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Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to third party materials. They are provided for education and entertainment only.
You can contact the author more information as well.
I recently submitted an internal organizational document that was spellchecked in addition to my review; several times. One sentence where there the intent was to say, “that which is …” was change to “that witch is …”
Did I type it wrong or did ‘auto correct’ take over the decision process? In any event spellcheck did not perform adequately against minimal Quality Assurance standards. And how many of us ‘fat finger’ text messages?
Is this is the technology that is going to drive me to work safely over 200 days a year; round trip? I hope not.
One pervasive message—technology gets better with time (more mature). Is this true?
How old is spellcheck? By some accounts it dates to the 1960s. Most believe by the late 1970s. So close to half a century. Yet!
Usually a spellchecker is not used in a life or death situation. That is unless it’s for your resume or job application! However, what about software that is utilized for critical processes, i.e., medicine, process control, etc.
There are many examples where apparent software failures have negatively impacted human life. This pundit has written this subject including a look at Man Machine Codependency. In another blog we commented on problems associated with valid and reliable analysis of Big Data.
In this author’s opinion, software is getting better and while most likely will not be perfect, will change our daily processes. The human overlords will need to be trained and/or retrained for the digitalization era.
This cautionary tale is not about this writer’s inability to use word processing tools. As we depend on these tools for critical decision making, we must have the core knowledge of the subject we are tackling.
During a class on digitalization for my master’s level students, I put forth several examples where errors were made by various software applications. Most had a level of comedy to them, but ALL have potential real-world consequences (bold font).
All People in Canada are the Same Age—Demographics for Census or Marketing
The Making of a Fly, a classic work in developmental biology, was listed on Amazon.com as having 17 copies for sale: 15 used from $35.54, and two new from $23,698,655.93 (plus $3.99 shipping)–Procurement
This writer has authored books, articles, speeches, presentations, and blogs for many years. Arguably, he can claim some experience as a writer. Subject Matter Expert?
In one instance, the ‘witch’ word won over my intent. Did the technology cause this error? Probably, as the goddess of Halloween is not something I typically pontificate about—not on my radar, so to speak.
Humans can rule for the foreseeable future. That is unless we seed to the technology. Most importantly, algorithmic errors can lead to cataclysmic business and even life events.
Finally, I spellchecked this blog before publication, and it caught the ‘witch’ word this time. Go figure.
How Prepared is Your Organization to Oversee the Digitalization Transformation?
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Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to other materials. They are provided for education and entertainment only.
You can contact the author more information as well.
