The Rapid Response Institute

Category: Covid-19

  • Fake Science

    Fake Science

    “I would rather have questions that can’t be answered than answers that can’t be questioned.” – Richard Feynman

    “I am the science.”  You have got to be kidding me Mr. Fauci.  Clearly, you have no training in the Scientific Method or maybe your just plan arrogant.  Home many lives have you and you colleagues destroyed, you fake scientist?

    As an actual degreed physicist, I have published here and other media on the process ‘real’ scientists take to address new phenomena.  Yet a singular medical doctor, not a degreed scientist claims the godlike mantel of ‘I am science?’

    Welcome to 21st Century quackery.  In his testimony before Congress, “Dr. Fauci reaffirmed shocking testimony that the ‘six feet apart’ social distancing recommendation that he promoted was arbitrary, not based on science, and ‘sort of just appeared.’”  Science?  NOT!!  Do I hear leaches and blood letting are next?

    Trillions and Trillions and Trillions

    Untold lives and treasure has been destroyed by the Covid-19 quacks.  Not just MD types but a complacent media and hapless governments (politicians as well as regulators) at all levels.

    I am not a Covid denier.  Yes, many got sick and too many died, but we are now learning is that a so call ‘medical’ approach to this problem was based on NOTHING real!  Moreover, it appears that senior officials at the  National Health Institute knowingly lied to us repeatedly.

    Let me see if I understand this, a US funded research institute focused on ‘gain of function‘ released the Covid or it came from a bat?  Readers can make their own decision.

    Pockets were padded and many had their (more) than fifteen minutes of fame.  What did the rest of us get? Lost jobs, closed (forever) small businesses, and now ‘oh joy’ inflation due to government largess.

    The National Institute of Health appears to have put in place a systematic procedure to foil Freedom of Information Act requests.   Our right to know and have oversight that limits the ability of dictatorships to emerge was compromised.

    The arrogance and disgust which these so called public service hold us, the public is beyond the pail.  But not to worry they are all multimillionaires working on GS 15 (~ $180,000) salaries.  They must get great investment advice.

    The old saying about reality is applicable, “If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it just may be a duck.”  Or it may be a MD policy wonk from the government that is ‘here to help or destroy your life.’  Remember how those who questioned the conventional wisdom were treated/abused?

    Bring in the mandatory masks.  No less than the conservative (lol) AL JAZEERA reports that key Covid players now question the value of masks we were all forced to wear.  Fascism!

    What the world was put through for years by dictatorial medical types and the fake media that took down other opinions and approaches is appalling.  Jail time is too good for these liars as they got rich.  Next time they come up with the crap they should be run out of town as they have not earned any respect.

    Have you put your liar detector in place when the fake government arrives and says ‘we are here to help/mandate?’

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the just published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • Questions, Questions, Questions

    Questions, Questions, Questions

    Picture sourced from LinkedIn, author unknown.

    It seems like there are a lot of answers these days, even to questions that have not been posed.  As of this writing, this author understands that masks work for Covid-19 but vaccines not so much although we are advised to get the shots and even a third one this fall.  So many flip-flops I feel like I spent the last year on a beach.

    Claiming, The settled Science says … is an answer designed to shut down debate.  Facts are, unless one believes the world is flat or the earth is the center of the universe (thank you Galileo Galilei), science is never settled.  If it were. we would be living in a Flintstones’ world.

    “And the Answer Is . . .”

    Thank you Alex.  For almost two years, we have been told the answers to the Covid-19 crisis are understood and the data is valid and reliable.   Then it isn’t.  Blamed on a dynamic and changing environment, we are told “we are following the science.”  Or perhaps just a political slogan.

    “Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!”  Just sit down, shut up and do as your told is often the mantra when authorizes’ edicts are questioned.  Good advise for a toddler but not so much for those over the age of 10.

    Are We There Yet?

    Tesla crashes are the latest Big Data enabled autopilot failures.  The level of maturity regarding digitalization and its various cousins has been discussed in this blog before.  Begging the question, are we ready for data Prime Time?

    We are besieged with answers from all manner of pundits, both electronic and in person.  We are told, “we must believe” without any serious discussion or in-depth assessment of the explanation.  Moreover, many of these statements regarding technology have not undergone the Scientific Method process.

    The result; many do not believe.  Covid-19 vaccination concerns are but one example of this squandering of faith.  Readers may have other issues that bother them.

    One consistent argument for not taking the inoculation is that vaccines take many years to develop and vet.  Perhaps, in the past but (1) we don’t have years with this deadly virus and (2) technology marches on and perhaps years are no longer required.  One can argue that this lack of trust is a result of so many answers in advance of the questions.

    How is your organization assuring that Answers are not being provided before the Questions are asked?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.

  • Crisis Management: The Need for Internal Consistency

    Crisis Management: The Need for Internal Consistency

    Attributed to former US Senator and Governor Rhode Island, Lincoln Chafee, “Trust is built with consistency.”  Moreover, from statistics we know that Internal Consistency, “measures whether several items that propose to measure the same general construct produce similar scores.”  The follow on definition statistical reliability, “is the consistency of a set of measurements or measuring instrument, often used to describe a test.”

    In our July 20, 2021 post, Are Your DEI Wheels Spinning? we posited that positive behavioral change as a result of a new situation/condition must result in relationships built on trust.  Without said trust, positive behavioral change is unlikely.

    Situational Change and Differences of Opinion

    Responsible individuals, organizations, and even industrial sectors can disagree.  In fact, ‘academic argument’ is a key component of the Scientific Method and science is never settled.  Moreover, most situations are fluid and those in crisis tend to be agitated.

    That said, crisis management techniques demand well defined processes with identified owners.  Moreover, data must be shared and meet the dual tests of ‘valid and reliable.’  There is no room for sloppiness or data bias as was found in more than one occasion during the Covid-19 pandemic.

    Some argue that Covid-19 data issues are unique and due the global nature of the problem.  However, we are told that Big Data is the future or actually is now.  Solving Climate Change, enabling driverless electric vehicles and so on and so forth.  Based on current performance, it would appear we have a ways to go.  Despite statements to the contrary it is possible implement decision support systems quickly and with success.  This is actually not a new process.

    Street Cred

    Often viewed from the perspective of the colloquial.  One attains credibility based on perceived performance and not necessarily as a function of actual accomplishment.  Usually, highly visible this Influencer can hold sway in larger ways than are actually justified.  However, in their orbit these individuals hold the trust of their followers.  Those holding contrary views will lack trust from this group but may hold significant trust from others skeptical of said leader.

    Both sides can loose trust and cred if ‘holes’ appear in the story line, narrative or agenda.  If the internal consistency of each position is weak, internal group pressures may ultimately destroy any impression of belief and trust.

    This is somewhat where the world is with the established Public Health authorities.  Many hold the perception of perhaps actual misinterpretation, analysis and presentation of the Covid-19 data sets.  The counter position lacks credibility as well.

    R B C

    We have been a proponent of the Relationships, Behaviors, Conditions model for almost thirty years.  Simply put, when situations or conditions change, human behavior changes and vis-à-vis.  This directly impacts on the relationships between individuals or groups, even societies.

    Large, controversial conditional movements, often with poor and even incompetent supporting data can lead to the erosion and even the complete breakdown of trust among affected parties.  Emotional, hyperbole, draconian and biased positions can accelerate the breakdown of trust.

    Once this bond is broken, rebuilding trust is a very lengthy process.  Rebuilding trust is an act of leadership!

    What is your organization doing to keep trust intact?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.

  • Complicity or Write a Book?

    Complicity or Write a Book?

    I Need a Book Deal!

     

    With the change of the US federal administration, previous key individuals are now coming out and writing books regarding their former boss.  This all the while with plenty of video evidence where these individuals pontificated a position and even changed their position dramatically while in the employ and in seemingly in support of that administration’s policy.

    Now some of the very architects of the US response to the Coronavirus are claiming their innocence all the while blaming others for thousands of deaths.  The nerve.  If true, she is equally responsible and perhaps more since she is a medical doctor.  First do no harm.

    We all have a boss and most need a job; however, when does an individual’s moral compass come to play?  Senior officials who will be gainfully employed doing something else fail to come forward or even resign.  THEN they claim victimhood!  The LOVE of power is so intoxicating.

    Remember, ordinary Germans were widely condemned after World War II for much less personal involvement.

    Credibility?

    Many institutions lack any credulity today.  This is not news and is a widely held view.  Any wonder when so called responsible parties now claim they could have reduced deaths but failed to do so?

    Organizational maleficence often leads to criminal charges and many executives have gone to jail.  If many of the books written after every administration are true, should at least some authors be at least censured for the complicity they themselves are documenting?

    ESG

    We have addressed the issue of governance a number of times.  Most notably in 2011, as part of our Changing the Dialogue monographs, Asset/Equipment Integrity Governance: Operations–Enterprise Alignment (A Case for Board Oversight) addressed the role of operations including environmental and social issues as critical components of the role of organizations.

    As part of the Safety and Environmental Management System tenets, the right for individuals to express themselves without redress is sacrosanct.  Surely, this includes senior officials?  If they can’t or rather seek to write ‘tell all’ books later, governance models are at risk.

    The days of Yes Men (and Women) and Empty Suits are over.  Perhaps, organizations need to clean house.

    How Do You Know Y0ur Advisors are Being Honest with You?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.

  • Post Covid-19 Operational Performance

    Post Covid-19 Operational Performance

    Not the So-Called New Normal

     

    The light at the end of the Covid-19 tunnel may not be the train many still believe.  Populations are being inoculated at very high rates.  Moreover, there is ample evidence in my metropolitan area that the general population no longer believes or adheres to the ‘advice of experts.’  This should surprise no one who understands the US long history of civil disobedience.

    We pundits forecasting the new normal following a traumatic social event always get it wrong and so we will again this time.  There is a simple reason for this–Human Behavioral Economics.  Another leg of the three legged stool is the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) and not all technologies are at the same level or even play well together.  Finally, Organizational Culture must be ready as well.  If these situational settings are not met, the crisis passes and we get back into the comfortable and familiar.

    Following the initial euphoria that we could work from home and not wear pants, many discovered this really was not for them.  Many children did not do as well in a stay at home educational setting and teachers were challenged as well.  Moreover, many tasks require personal engagement.

    Many are Called . . .

    As always winners and losers will emerge and it will take some time for that rank order to solidify.  While digital is important and we have supported that business model for decades, bits will not physically move the barrels.  Still will take heavy industrial technology and processes.

    Using information and other technologies to drive Operations Management Systems are the future.  Not necessarily driven by IT firms but those digital engineers steeped in both disciplines.

    If Organizations are to achieve successful Sustainability, they first need a High Reliability level of Agility and Resiliency.  The only get these attributes when they perform at a high level of Excellence.

    So as we arrive at another new normal, we need to recognize that not everything from the past was bad and not everything we see today is good.  Some processes will be sustained and coupled with newer one.  New Normals do not really destroy the past; we continue to evolve.

    Even innovation from Creative Destruction is not instantaneous.

    How will your organization take advantage of emerging opportunities?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.

  • Open Sesame

    Open Sesame

    A Year of Leadership–Or Not!

    On March 2, 2021 the Governor of Texas announced its 100% reopening–effectively proclaiming an end of the Covid-19 crisis.  Needless to say in our hyper-partisan world, many widely decried the decision and even accused him or bringing physical death to the state population.

    Mississippi announced a similar rollback of virus driven constraints.  Likewise, Connecticut is rapidly easing similar restrictions.  These state join others with loose Covid-19 protocols.  This pundit expects this trend to gain speed quickly and worldwide.

    Meanwhile, the President of the United States accuses these decisions as being made by Neanderthals, while the Director of NIAID position has move from NO mask to wearing MUTIPLE masks.  The political divide regarding the path forward remains wide.

    Consent of the Governed

    “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time,” is attributed to Abraham Lincoln.  This oft quote is usually seen through a political lens.  More importantly, it is a position from a Leader!

    Driven by suspect data we were told that this virus had an Armageddon like quality.  At one point over 2 million Americans were projected to die and the hospital systems would be overwhelmed, perhaps irrevocably.  Hospital ships were mobilized and economies brought to their knees all to save lives.  Perhaps, even our own.

    To be clear, many did succumb and many lives were destroyed or at least changed forever.  We mourn those and recognize the serious of this pathogen.

     

    A few of my family and friends have been infected but fortunately with only minor symptoms and limited hospitalization.  In this we are very fortunate.

    Crises can happen at any time, hurricane, winter storms, hostilities are part of the human conditions.  How we respond it the difference between chaos and inconvenience.  Leadership determines the outcome!

    If you have lost someone to Covid-19, cancer, accident, fire (I lost two family members) or other tragedies, statistical arguments are meaningless as the probability is 100%.  However, for the overall population likelihood of recovering from the coronavirus has always been quite high.

    Many questions have been raised regarding the myriad of conflicting “authoritative” information and misinformation the public has endured for 12 months.  With no conclusive or definitive game plan put forth by authorities, we were left to fend for ourselves.

    A resident of the Houston metropolitan area, this writer has noted that traffic is almost back to normal.  This suggests that the governed no longer have faith in political or medical leadership demanding yet another year under their ‘knowledgeable’ thumb.

    Once that credibility is lost, game over for leaders pontificating that to be safe we must hunker down forever.  Not sure even the Londoners did that during the Blitz.

    The Future is Bright

    Rulers attempt to dictate through a never ending series of edicts.  Knowledgeable governed conduct reasonable due diligence and make there own risk adjusted behavioral decisions.

    Likely, recent events are driven by the political class learning that enough is enough.  After all, we are adults and capable of living our own lives.

    Agree that the pathogen is still with us and we must address it.  Vaccines have a long history of success and processes are in place for safe openings.

    Society is opening with or without the politicians.  Remember the Speakeasies during Prohibition of the 1920s?

    Expect more to run to a microphone and claim leadership.  Ultimately, this process is irrelevant.  Getting out ahead of a parade and claiming to be the Grand Marshal does not make it so.

    Regardless, 2020 is over and there is NO interest in repeating it in 2021.  Message from the governed–we will take our chances going forward!  Our  R B C Framework model at work.

    Covid-19 is not over but seems to be getting to remission thanks to the army of men an women who have risen to the challenge in less than a year and saved countless lives.

    How are you leading your organization to recapture Normal?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.

  • Is Your Remote Team Aligned?

    Is Your Remote Team Aligned?

    Recently, my team and I were tasked with a delicate decision making process.  Due to its nature and signatory level, team members were only authorized to explore and present options.  The final decision was mine alone.  Our project governance model clearly defined this decision making process.

    One day I received a call from remote members explaining they were going to a vendor site to assess our options–I concurred.  Several hours later they let me know that they had made a decision and signed a contract.  When challenged about their actions they informed me that the vendor had demanded that they ‘act fast.’

    Twice in my career I was the C level executive responsible for global operations.  In one case, one of my direct reports was in a different office along with my boss, the CEO.  I received multiple calls from the CEO over a period that ‘so and so’ had stopped by to talk and decisions were made about my operations.  “Well you were not here was the excuse and it seemed like a good idea to me.”  Would it surprise anyone that ‘so and so’ was relieved shortly thereafter?

    In another, the software development operation was in a different part of town.  Development plans were agreed to and then in some cases materially changed with without authority or even informing management.  Needless to say, projects were late or not completed.  After a few weeks of this, the development lead was terminated.

    Remote Management Governance

    Based on the above paragraphs, some may argue that I am not a very good manager.  Perhaps, they are right; however, the point is remote management can be very difficult.  Empowered individuals and teams must have boundaries.

    Yes, hire smart people and get out of the way.  However, there are limits as even Steve Jobs, the micromanager would agree.

    Evidence suggests that working remotely has its challenges and not everyone is well suited for it.  Some individuals will need additional support.

    There is a great deal of information available about remote management.  Some is sound, but this Though Leader on the subject disagrees with much the advice.  It seems for many, this is their ‘first rodeo’ while remote management goes back to antiquity.  While not the first, the Roman Empire functioned well from a bureaucratic or management perspective.

    Inclusive Teams

    Currently, much of the discussion focuses on the Inclusion of team members.  We are recognizing that Diversity is not enough if not every one participates.

    Previously, we had put forth the construct that cross cultural teams have many of the same characteristics of diverse groups.  We can extend this model and success that Inclusive Teams include those individual who are not as well suite for remote teams as others.

    Managing diverse remote teams and assuring that all team members are valued contributors requires a level of managerial engagement that is constant, consistent and appropriately empowering.  ALL members must be encouraged to participate and their input must be acknowledged by the others.  Only then can Steve Jobs and Elon Musk like decisions be taken and not by those who tend to dominate groups unilaterally.

    D&I in a Post-Pandemic World

    Typically, D&I has been defined as a function of ethnicity and/or gender.  Last year we put forth the construct that Cross-Cultural and D&I are similar models of human behavior and best practices from both could add value to the other.

    Diversity must now include those are not well suited for new business models; however, flawed they may be–jury is still out regarding the effectiveness and efficiency of full time remote teams.  Inclusion means they must be actively involved.  Leaders at all levels must assure this model is successful.

    How Do You Assure the Reluctant Remote Team Members are Included?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.

     

     

  • Passing of the Greatest Generation

    Passing of the Greatest Generation

    Salute Ladies and Gentlemen!

    December 7, 1941 was 79 years ago.  A twenty-year-old at the time would be 99 today, almost a centenarian.  My father is 98 and not likely to see 2021.

    We live in a technological age, and despite the pandemic it is relatively easy living for many.  No one is asking our youth to go to foreign lands with the likelihood of not returning.

    If the Twentieth Century has taught us anything, it is that youth has stood up repeatedly despite the dithering of politicians.  Many of this century’s young warfighters continue this proud tradition of defending our nation and our freedoms.

    Born at the dawn of the last century, this generation saw the Great Depression and volunteered for the (hopefully) final global conflict; World War II.  Since Pearl Harbor, our world has changed dramatically and quickly.

    They saw the transformation of the United States into a global Super Power and slogged through some 45 years of the Cold War.  China moved from the backward nation occupied by Japan to its current position.

    The (possible) Chinese saying/curse, “May You Live In Interesting Times” applies to this selfless generation who laid the ground work for our modern world.  On way they invented the transistor in 1947—the foundation of our “Smart Technologies.”

    As they pass from the scene, in the words of Abraham Lincoln at Gettysburg, “It is for us the living, rather, to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought here have thus far so nobly advanced.”

    We must pick up their gauntlet.  In one sense it is a heavy lift; however, those who came before us have lightened our load.

    What Are You Doing to Make Your Parents and Grandparents Proud?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.

  • Covid-19 Positive: Telemedicine Kicked into High Gear

    Covid-19 Positive: Telemedicine Kicked into High Gear

    Crisis Drives Change

    In 2001 this writer approached the Houston medical community, post tropical storm Allison which flooded many basements in the Houston Medical Center with the loss of experimental data and other records.  We proposed the development of an Internet based solution to hold and manage medical records of all types.  The response to my organization’s offer to digitize records was met with disbelief and ultimate rebuke.

    At the time I was employed by a major corporation with the technology and financial resources to accomplish this task.  Sales Objections included privacy, doctors will not ‘buy in,’ insurance will not pay for it and a host of other lame excuses.

    Flash forward to 2020.  Why are thing so different now and the idea of ‘digitalization’ almost universally accepted?

    Twenty years is a career for many, yet it took a crisis this year to kick the medical sector into action at critical mass—Coronavirus, aka Covid-19.  As often the case large organizations are content to stay with the status quo.  Culture, processes, and even individual bonuses incent lethargy and complacency.  This common trait is not limited to one sector.

    Moreover, advances in online telemetry support the physician’s ability to treat many aliments remotely.  The industry did not just ‘jump’ to the current state, it evolved over time.  For example, remote and inaccessible areas such as Antarctica have taken advantage of telemedicine including remotely directed surgeries.

    Democratization

    We may look back on 2020 as the seminal moment when medicine was digitalized.  Despite current access issues such as we are finding with K-12 education, most will have the ability to interact online in the near future.  Moreover, a number of COTS (commercial off the shelf) health solutions such as found in a variety of Smart phone products enable remote diagnosis and monitoring on a global basis.

    The catalyst for taking telemedicine to the next level is Covid-19!  A good Positive.

    How is your organization taking advantage of remote operational technologies?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.

  • How Bored Are You? – Adding Value During the Pandemic

    How Bored Are You? – Adding Value During the Pandemic

    A friend of mine sent me this uncited picture, so my apologies to the originator as I cannot give you the rightful credit deserved.  If you see this, let me know and I will update this blog.

    We are all enduring 2020 in our own way.  Sometimes positive but often negative.  Battling my own 2020 demons, I was never tempted to invent new mathematics.

    Other than the obvious humor of this likeness, what value add have we provided society since March?  For some dealing with job changes/loss and the kiddos at home may make developing calculus a seemingly easy task.  Some families have faced hospitalization and even the loss of loved ones.

    We all have been touched by this disease and personally, family and close friends have contracted it.  So far, all are recovering or have.

    With vaccines on the near horizon and with a pathogen (typical) lifecycle record of less than a couple of years, we may all move on and back to normal—in this pundit’s opinion not the new normal many prognosticate pontificate.  Likely, the old mask-less normal.

    We all have choices to make and in many cases have already made them.  While therapeutics and vaccines look very promising, the virus is still with us.  Personally, we have four choices.  Where we find ourselves at the end is a function of current behaviors.

    Note that developing new math is probably not one of them; however, new Apps are a distinct possibility.  New art, writing, music, businesses and a plethora of other options can be your contribution.  Carpe diem or make the most of your Isaac Newton moment.

    This virus is often compared to the 1918 so-call Spanish Flu; however, six pathogens have haunted the human race since then with another 14 in recorded history—not to mention polio that started circa 1916 and ran well into the 1950s..  Seems that one way or another we are all sentenced to live with this kind of scourge.

    How we make the best of it is up to each one of us.  Spend your time well—add value as opposed to waistline.

    What will you tell your kids you did during the 2020 pandemic?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.

  • Linear Metrics in Non-Linear Times?

    Linear Metrics in Non-Linear Times?

    “If it disagrees with experiment, its wrong”

    Our point today is to assess how behavioral decisions are being made today; not about the politics of one candidate or the other.

    The race to the US presidential election has entered its final phase.  As of this writing, establishment wisdom holds the conventional candidate as the presumptive winner.

    Pollical polling is a linear straightforward process albeit with the inherent bias of ‘all’ behavioral instruments.  Effective surveys will take a statistically significant representative sample and project those results to the larger electorate.  A time-honored approach for product marketing as well.

    However, there is another school of thought.  When a new produce/idea is disruptive or not well understood, the firm needs to be proactive rather than simply reactive such as using a survey.  Steve Jobs stated, “You can’t just ask customers what they want and then try to give that to them.  By the time you get it built, they’ll want something new.

    One interpretation, ‘They don’t know what they don’t know.’  Echo the words of Donald Rumsfeld!

    Pollsters suggests that 2016 will not be repeated and they have modified their survey instrument control processes.  Recently one noted canvasser, Frank Luntz stated, “Pollsters did not do a good job in 2016.  So, if Donald Trump surprises people, if Joe Biden had a 5 or 6-point lead, my profession is done.”

    Our Lying Eyes

    When the world was the center of the universe with all the stars and galaxies rotating around us, linear projections confirmed the observed metrics.  However, famously, Nobel laureate, Richard Feynman taught us that, “If it disagrees with experiment, its wrong.”

    Galileo and Kepler among others experimented using the observable data differently.  They discovered that the universe does not revolve around our planet.

    Their assessments altered the given world forever and caused them significant personal angst in the process.  Established ‘science’ did not welcome this change readily.

    If the incumbent rallies and is elected for a second term despite expert projections using legacy linear tools, it maybe time to rethink how social beliefs and behaviors are measured.  Given the problems with Covid-19 data management, the same maybe said for that issue as well

    Hypothesis—Disruption cannot be accurately measured with traditional tools.

    Learnings

    Beyond politics and marketing, there are lessons for all of us.  Artificial Intelligence, Search Engines, Predictive, Big Data Analytics, Machine Learning, IoT et al are now all the rage.  But what if they are using the wrong algorithms?

    There are ramifications for our daily lives.  In March 2019, the Boeing Max 8 was grounded and has yet to return to service.  Will driverless automobiles put us all at risk?

    This survey question maybe answered on November 3 or whenever the final results are tabulated.  Other questions about the use of other metrics will remain unanswered; at least for now.

    How are you certain your decision supports processes and tools are providing valid and reliable data?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.

  • Can Never Be Proved Right!

    Can Never Be Proved Right!

    “If it disagrees with experiment, its wrong”—Richard Feynman

    Full Disclosure: this author holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Physics with a minor in Mathematics.  My doctoral dissertation developed a new Game Theory based practical solution.

    For those unfamiliar with this discipline, check out the movie Beautiful Mind or the work of John von Neumann who is also the father of the modern computing architecture.  Our approach is based on these integrated disciplines.

    This follows on the last blog and was inspired by a weekend conversation with my brother who holds a Ph.D. in physics and has invented products making the aviation world much safer.

    The incomparable (Nobel Prize in Physics) Richard Feynman knew how to teach physics to laypeople.  One of his most notable moments was when he showed the shuttle Challenger committee that freezing o-rings made them more brittle—something most living in the north intuitively know but somehow was lost during cold snaps in Florida (not entirely as some warned of this potential).  The other option was “get-there-itis” or the need to fulfill a mission no matter what.  Time, money and reputation at risk.  For more information, check out the final report on the Challenger.

    Instead of taking your time to read this pundit’s opinion, spend 10 minutes to hear what this Nobel Laurate has to say regarding the definition of Science and the Scientific Method.  He also argues that with ‘Vague Theory’ you can get multiple results, aka pseudo-science.

    I think this model works for Covid-19 as well.  After all, addressing this pathogen is largely technology based.

    “For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled”

    —R. Feynman, Challenger Report

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    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    The Short Version of this Feynman lecture.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.

  • They Blinded Me with Science

    They Blinded Me with Science

    Thoughts from a Scientist

    Full Disclosure: this author holds an undergraduate degree in Physics with a minor in Mathematics.  My doctoral dissertation developed a new Game Theory based practical solution.  For those unfamiliar with this discipline, check out the movie Beautiful Mind or the work of John von Neumann who is also the father of the modern computing architecture.  Our approach is based on these integrated disciplines.

    Belief in ‘The Science’

    The multiple disciplines often called ‘Science’ incorporate a wide set of specialties.  At the fundamental level all life depends on science.  Gravity, medicine, chemistry, electronics, are all dependent on basic scientific understanding.  If it was not so, our iPhones would not work.

    The phrase, “Everything that can be invented has been invented” Charles H. Duell Commissioner of US patent office (perhaps jokingly) supposedly said in 1899.  Needless to say, ‘The Science’ continues to evolve.

    When treated as fait accompli, (Settled Science) pundits pronouncing The Science says “. . .,” do their audience a disservice.  Since human first started discovering their world and its place in the universe science has been an ongoing process.  Those interested in additional details should check out the Timeline of Scientific Discoveries.  A very compelling read.

    A final point, science is usually the subject of often great debate—sometimes for decades or more.  In this sense, there is no such thing as settled science—there is always something new to discover in any field.

    Pseudo-Science

    Lies, darn lies and statistics is a phase often heard.  Its meaning?  The use of numbers can be very persuasive bolstering diametrically opposed positions or academic arguments.  This is one way to look at the differences between science and pseudo-science.

    According to Scientific American, “Scientific claims are falsifiable—that is, they are claims where you could set out what observable outcomes would be impossible if the claim were true—while pseudo-scientific claims fit with any imaginable set of observable outcomes.  What this means is that you could do a test that shows a scientific claim to be false, but no conceivable test could show a pseudo-scientific claim to be false.  Sciences are testable, pseudo-sciences are not.”

    These two terms are often confused or deliberately conflated in support of positions based on ‘The Science.’  Caveat Usor or ‘let the user (of information) beware’ of the agenda and/or purpose of its purveyor.

    Enter Covid

    Covid-19 has presented some interesting challenges.  From the public discourse, one can assume both science and pseudo-science are at work.  A vigorous dialogue is ongoing at all levels of society from the political and medical classes to the so-called man (or woman) on the street.

    The public is not used to seeing such open scientific debate by knowledgeable (scientists) parties and it often appears they are in total disagreement about various aspects of the pathogen.  In this, they are correct as they are seeing the so-called ‘sausage making’ of this discipline.

    Likewise, a wide variety of agendas seem to be driving the use of pseudo-science to support positions and action plans.  This seeming chaos, especially in a US presidential election cycle has cast a long shadow of Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt (FUD).

    Data integrity, statistical models and medicine have all been called into question this year.  Beyond this pandemic, we are all now faced with the politicization of ‘The Science.’

    Guidelines in the Era of Hyper-Technology

    Approximately twenty years ago, the chemical company Dupont changed its long standing tag line from “Better Living Through Chemistry” to “The Miracles of Science.”  This suggests that everyone living today has seen science at the forefront of our existence.

    Technology, the delivery mechanism of science to consumers has expanded at an exponential rate and is seeming driving even faster.  Therefore, a hypothesis from the Scientific Method is that ‘we consumers are knowledgeable buyers.’

    So, why not use the Scientific Method yourself?  Here is one approach:

    • Pose a Testable Question—Ask yourself how can I measure the response?
    • Conduct Background Research—Google search et al, recognizing the probably of bias on the part of authors
    • State your Hypothesis—Question with NO pre-conceived outcome (Pseudo-Science)
    • Design Experiment—How can I test my hypothesis?
    • Perform your Experiment—Test your idea
    • Collect Data—Write down anything that you learn
    • Draw Conclusions—What makes logical sense (Mr. Spoke)?
    • Publish Findings—Tell your colleagues, write a blog or more

    This need not be an arduous task.  In fact, much of it you’re doing already when you make a decision to procure technology devices.

    Think about what you hear pundits arguing about using this approach.  You will likely arrive at your personal conclusion that you are either hearing about science or pseudo-science.

    Either answer may be fine, but now you will know more about what you are consuming.  This is an important distinction.

    How Can You Assure Yourself That You Are Not Blinded by Science?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.

  • Pressure Differential

    Pressure Differential

    Managing Tension at the Margin

    As September draws to a close the Houston metropolitan area has dodged two hurricane bullets; Laura and Beta.  Fingers crossed that this very active season draws to an early and quiet close.  The beauty and downside of the 24/7 news and weather reporting is that lay people learn more jargon then we ever new possible.  Take for example, the term Pressure Differential.

    One broadcaster used this phrase to describe the low at the eye-of-the-storm and circulating higher pressure.  In other words, the ‘tension at the margin’ or stress between competing bodies—the engine of power.

    Humans constantly deal with this phenomenon and sometimes the stress caused by this dichotomy can seem to be overwhelming.  Sometimes, it seems this powerful internal engine races without a governor.

    The Power of Change

    The pandemic, storm season, economy, job, family and a host of other issues tug at our margins constantly.  When writing about stress, Winston Churchill famously stated, “But the element which is constant and common in all of them is Change.”

    Mark Twain is credited with, “If you don’t like the weather, wait five minutes (and it will change).”  Hurricane pressure differentials subside and the sun shines again.  Yet, the hurricane engine does not change of its own accord.

    In the case of Beta, dry air at its margin was one element that sapped it of its strength.  Storms change as a result of exogenous events.  Humans can also incorporate endogenous actions as change agents.

    Use Case

    Recently, I commented on a LinkedIn post where the author was reminding recruiters that hospitality workers have great and transferable skills.  The example I suggested was around events.

    The traditional conference event sector has been hit hard by the pandemic with most conferences cancelled.  The toll on those employees and supporting contractors must be horrendous.

    However, there is a surge in online event like activity.  Many of the same activities for in person conferences are the same.

    The program must be developed and marketed.  Speakers, panelists, participants and others must be recruited.  Wouldn’t those sales, planners and others from the traditional sector bring immediate and significant value to the digital venue?

    The power of change is within all of us.  Govern that engine properly and your pressure differential will nullify.

    What’s Your Change Plan for these Transformative Times?

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    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.

  • Radar: Technology Game Changer!

    Radar: Technology Game Changer!

    The battle of Leyte Gulf in 1944 with over 200,000 individuals involved is possibly the largest naval battle in history.  Hopefully, one of the last ones.

    In that battle, the submarine USS Darter initially detected (on radar) the Japanese task force early on October 23.  Other US naval vessels spotted that armada shortly thereafter on their radar screens.  This advanced knowledge enabled to US Navy to seize the initiative.  After the battle, the Japanese never stood up an equivalent naval force again.

    Technological advantage can be a game changer.  There is evidence of this phenomenon throughout history.  In this instance, the result was the elimination of the adversary’s ability to recover and reengage in a meaningful way.

    History’s Lessons

    Another game changer from that era was the proximity fuse developed by the Applied Physics Laboratory of Johns Hopkins University.  This technology enabled anti-aircraft rounds to explode within 75 feet of an attacking enemy aircraft instead of requiring physical contact which had a poor track record.  Referred to as, “The real secret weapon of World War II,” it is credited with shorting the war.

    Adversity has always led to rapid technological development.  There are indications that the Covid-19 pandemic is fueling an explosion of new ideas that directly address the infection as well as drive performance when the threat has passed.

    Capturing Value

    The conventional approach is to follow the Technology Adoption Life Cycle.  But is that still the realistic model today?  In our article published in 2004 Calculus of Value Model, we argue that the exact opposite is true.

    Advantage can go to those organizations that deploy technology early and codify knowledge obtained as a result.  The resulting ‘unfair advantage’ can change an industry.

    Previously we have made the case that while the concept of Minimum Viable Product aka MVP; a product that Early Adopters will find satisfactory, “The assessment of such technological solutions needs to be robust and thought through.  Not the knee jerk response often seen.”  Meaning that certain risks must be factored in the Value Proposition, but these can be manageable.

    According to Oracle’s Larry Ellison, “If you do everything that everyone else does in business, you’re going to lose.  The only way to really be ahead, is to ‘be different’.”  So Be Different—Start Early!

    How Can You Make New Technologies Your Organizational Game Changer?

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    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We are presenting, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event!!

    You can contact the author as well.

  • Data Bias: The Latent or Unobserved

    Data Bias: The Latent or Unobserved

    In statistics a Latent Variable can be defined as, ‘a variable inferred from observed or measured data.’ Its analysis is often used psychology, economics, and predictive modeling.  This author used Structural Equation Models (SEM) in his 1996 doctoral dissertation, Cross Cultural Negotiations Between Japanese and American Businessmen: A Systems Analysis (Exploratory Study).

    From that abstract, “The use of sophisticated statistical techniques such as structural equation modeling and game theory is becoming increasing more important.  Traditional techniques are known to be limited, particularly in the context of cross-cultural behavioral studies.”

    Survival Bias

    A recent LinkedIn post alerted this writer to the inimitable perspective statistician Abraham Wald brought to the assessment of World War II Allied bomber damage upon return from missions.  He argued that observed anti-aircraft damage was non-crippling since the aircraft remained airworthy and was able to return.

    He surmised that planes that did not come home may have suffered damage to other areas making them unairworthy and hence their data was unobserved.  Based on this analysis, the U.S. Navy beefed-up armor in the less or unaffected areas and this was credited with saving lives and aircraft.

    This type of analysis came to known as Survival Bias which has its proponents and detractors.  On the surface, it seemed intuitively obvious that areas of damage need addressing while not necessarily those statistically showing fewer issues.

    It is not our intent herein to assess its merits and applicability.  Rather to help readers better understand the very nature of big data and its use, especially in predictive and behavioral models.

    Covid-19

    Today, policy and other decision makers are tasked with dealing with a deadly global pathogen.  Apparently developing quickly and spreading exponentially—a super spreading event.  As of this writing has afflicted millions in 188 countries/region in much less than 12 months.

    In this pundit’s opinion, much of the concern, confusion and clearly wrong information regarding this disease and mitigation protocols can be traced to data collection and analysis.  By now most readers will have some familiarity with the chaos associated with these predictive models.

    For example, according to the US National Library of Medicine, National Institute of Health, “A key fact for us all to remember is that, for the majority of countries, we’re not actually counting how many people have the virus—instead were counting the reports of how many people have the virus, and, like all metrics, those numbers vary according to how they’re measured.  An increase in the number of tests being carried out will result in an increase in the number of infections detected.”

    In addition to the Herculean efforts to tame this tiger from the vast medical, scientific, technology and many other disciplines, Structural Equation Modeling is being used to shed additional light on the latent variables.

    Final Thoughts

    The 2020 Coronavirus is an early test of Big Data analysis in support of decision makers both for public policy and non-government organizations.  While performance so far has been weak, this pundit believes great value can come from this effort.

    Data quality must be highly reliable and valid.  Moreover, models must assess what is not seen, the latent variables such as found in Survival Bias.  These two aspects of strong decision support models are crucial.  These are lessons for all of us.

    Where Didn’t the Bullets Hit Your Business Model?

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    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We are presenting, Should Cross Cultural Serious https://rri-ccgame.com/Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely conference!!

    You can contact the author as well.

  • Home for a While?

    Home for a While?

    It appears that issues associated with the Covid-19 pandemic will remain for some time.  Hopefully, the emerging vaccines will be readily available in the coming months.  That said, one of the disruptive changes that may codify is Working from Home.

    In our March 16, 2020 piece, Home Base During a Crisis: ‘get up, clean up and dress up’ we addressed some of the problems one uncovers when working from home during a crisis.  In that piece, we conjectured “Is this a paradigm shift or just a short-term inconvenience?  Reality; probably a bit of both.”

    The virus and its propagation remain serious.  However, from the perspective of a new normal working remotely is becoming an accepted model.  Many organizations have announced long-term and even permanent distant working plans.

    As we move from a short-term crisis to a ‘way of life,’ we must make changes as well.  The need for a daily structured process must become our approach to the job as does the need to find meaningful engagement with others.

    As with other change models, new process should not just happen.  An attainable action plan must be put in place and followed.

    Some Ideas

    In no order, these thoughts might be helpful.

    • When we transitioned from school to our first ‘real’ job, changes in our daily life were perhaps dramatic. It is useful to think of this paradigm shift from that perspective.
    • One of the challenges faced by retirement is often the sudden stop in activities. Going from Business @ the Speed of Thought to “I wonder what I will do today” has literally killed many retirees at a very young age.

    One way to make this a soft landing is a transition process.  Many I have known have taken new positions that were not as stressful prior to full retirement.  Try this approach when moving to 80+% working from home.

    Another example; restaurants opening after Stay at Home orders were lifted started at 25% capacity and then to 50% and so on.  This allows staff to adopt policy and guidelines into their formal work process.

    • Think of this as a ‘Life Stage Transition.’ Marriage, birth of a child, divorce, moving, etc. lead to significant changes in our daily schedule.

    An article in Psychology Today recounts “10 Ways to Make it Through Your Life’s Transitions.”  This is a good quick perusal and readers will see useful coping mechanisms (especially for those where a transition is unwanted).

    Moreover, with school openings uncertain children as well as parents may learn from the points made herein.  Working from Home has good stages and not so good junctures.  Capitalize on the former.

    What is Your Personal Business Model for Working from Home Permanently?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 on April 9, 2020.  The summit will be offered again soon.  Check it Out!!

    You can contact the author as well.

  • Technology Assessment in the Era of Minimum Viable Product (MVP)

    Technology Assessment in the Era of Minimum Viable Product (MVP)

    App developers have fallen in love with the concept of Minimum Viable Product aka MVP.  Wikipedia defines minimum viable product (MVP) as “a version of a product with just enough features to satisfy early customers and provide feedback for future product development.”

    This development model might make some sense for consumer software or even some business data analytics but how does it work for mission critical software and those apps that allow remote connectivity to those data resources?  MVP is problematic in these cases at best.

    Most mission critical software development organizations understand that robust testing is necessary, yet sometimes the specter of the MVP mentality sneaks its camel nose under the tent.  Think this does not happen?  Think again.

    The Boeing 737 Max 8 is one current example of this phenomena.  One can argue that the costs to this organization, its customers and the flying public have been astronomical and perhaps not measurable.

    Many of us will not be flying any time soon and many months ago this writer has been told by a knowledgeable individual that safe work around for the Max8 software issues have always been readily available—even before the crashes.  There is a more onerous issue that affects everyone on the planet is widely accepted by policy makers.

    We extend the construct of MVP to Minimum Viable Thought.  MVT is defined as, “The version of a decision that the decision makers believe will be accepted by organizational executives and public policy makers.”

    As of publication, this statement is posted on The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington.  “To construct our “Current projection” (the line that shows what we think will most likely happen), we assume that in each location the trend of easing mandates will continue at its current trajectory until the daily death rate reaches a threshold of 8 deaths per million.  If the daily death rate in a location exceeds that threshold, we are assuming that mandates will be reintroduced for a six-week period.”

    We do not dispute modelers making assumptions.  We do that same.  However, this caveat.  Decisions made based modeling assumptions such as these often lead to cataclysmic results.

    The concept of MVP can be a slippery slope.  In an era of rapid software/data release, the risk to the public whether in airplanes or a pandemic can be huge.

    The assessment of such technological solutions needs to be robust and thought through.  Not the knee jerk response often seen.

    How do you assure new technology implementation does not material negatively impact on your business?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

  • Next or Back to the Future?

    Next or Back to the Future?

    Current events may have us all longing for the ‘good ole days.’  Sounds good on paper but not something any of us can realize.  Nostalgia aside we all must continue to slog on.  It is after all a one-way trip and there is no Delorean to help us.

    The Challenge of Change

    People change all the time and we have covered this before in this series a number of times.  However, some change is not without transformational difficulties.  The literature is replete with case studies where organization/industry transformation failed and sometimes spectacularly.

    Depending on one’s perspective sometime during February or March of this year, the global population became generally aware of a new and potentially devastating pathogen.  Dramatic (even draconian) measures were taken, and we were all convinced of the potential for global devastation.  Global Stay-At-Home orders wrecked economies but most of us dutifully obeyed.

    As of this writing, in a world of almost 8 billion people, according to a credible source, Johns Hopkins:

    • Cumulative Cases; Less than 8 million
    • Deaths; Less than 500k
    • Recovered; Approximately 3.7 million

    Rarely, emphasized math suggests that there are approximately 3.7 million Active cases.

    For those of you in the US (~330 million) like I am, the math looks like this:

    • Cumulative Cases; Just over 2 million
    • Deaths; Approximately 116k
    • Recovered; Approximately 560k

    Active US cases are approximately 1.4 million.

    Credibility Factor

    We have been told Covid-19 Armageddon was at hand.  Hospitals would be overwhelmed, etc.  No Mask and now Mask.  Most show few if any symptoms.  Now asymptomatic will kill the elderly and so it goes.  This list of contradictory positions goes on and change is justified by our “New Knowledge” about the pathogen.

    So What?

    Now we are told a new wave is coming from Memorial Day celebrations, protests and more from the phasing out of the lockdown.  How is the population reacting to these new pronouncements of doom?

    By engaging in normal human interactions.  Mask free in many cases to the chagrin of the medical experts.  One expert suggested that the United States does not have a coherent Covid-19 national policy.

    From my high school Civics, class, ”Enumerated powers are specific powers granted to Congress by the United States Constitution.  The framers of the Constitution wanted to ensure the new federal government would not become an overreaching entity that might subject the people to the oppression from which they had fled.  To that end, they listed, in Article 1, Section 8 of the Constitution, the authority over certain specific things.  Authority over every issue not enumerated, or assigned to Congress, is reserved for the individual states.”

    My interpretation, States are the governing body for most activities including a pandemic.

    Therefore, each state is charged with managing this process within federal law, taking guidance from resources such as the Center for Disease Control.  This is 200+ year-old policy.

    Failure to Launch

    In recent days, this writer has encountered numerous individuals seemingly in violation of the tenets of Covid-19 response.  After months of predicting the end of human interaction as we have known it and in the face of numbers that just don’t add up, we are told it isn’t over yet.  Seemingly entrenched positions prevail although data and subsequent rationale are fungible.

    Lessons Learned

    Much is being said about fundamental changes to industry, i.e., oil and gas, airlines, and others.  Societal change is presented as fait accompli and the time is now!

    The history of transformation does not support these hypotheses.

    Sustained change requires significant ongoing energy from catalysis.  Not the continuation of exogenous events but continued commitment to answer the What’s In It for Me question we all ask when confronted with a new model.

    Current events will fade and life as we knew it will likely continue.  To be sure, there will be some change but disruptive transformation in the social fabric pundits are predicting are unlikely based on the past and typical human behavior.

    How will You Assure Transformation is Sustained?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 on April 9, 2020.  The summit will be offered again soon.  Check it Out!!

    You can contact the author as well.

  • Agility, Resiliency, Sustainability

    Agility, Resiliency, Sustainability

    In a recent Harvard Business Review, I was struck by an article about Best Practices for small businesses.  From that piece, “To successfully navigate Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous (VUCA) challenges like Covid-19, family business leaders can look to best practices from another organization that specializes in VUCA situations—the U.S. military’s Special Operations Forces (SOF)” (emphasis added).  There are a lot of good ideas in the article that organizations can implement immediately.  Moreover, we have long recognized that properly vetted and adjusted as necessary, Best Practices from others can add significant value to organizations in other industries.

    Out of the Darkness

    It is easy to be overwhelmed these days.  Mildly put, most if not all organizations were thrown into chaos in less than a month.  Depending on your business you are either partially operating or still waiting to open-up.

    Regardless, how you work in June will be different than early March (~60 days as of this writing).  Traditional recession management and recovery techniques may not be applicable this time.

    There are lots of ideas about how to use technology going forward.  Digitalization, IoT, IT-OT, among others are hawked as THE solution.  Problem is, it is not that simple, and it takes time and money to implement.  Many midsize firms do not have those privileges/resources.

    There are a lot of actions most organizations can take without major CAPEX investments in time and money.

    Years ago, we recognized that certain industrial sectors, particularly those with a high-risk profile such as energy or others deemed to be part of Critical Infrastructures face unique challenges.  Some have a tendency towards incremental change or even the status quo.  Change is often slow with setbacks.

    Moreover, for every major firm there can be thousands of organizations in the supply chain ecosystems all of which must work well if total costs and profitability for all are to be effectively addressed.

    This seemingly daunting task yet it need not be.  There is a solution set available that can help organizations manage through this dark period and into the light, thriving.

    The mission of The Rapid Response Institute is;

    “Helping Clients Achieve Organizational Agility, Resiliency and Sustainability”

    To that end, we have developed solutions, methodologies, and tools enabling enterprises of all sizes to not just survive but thrive after disruptive events.  Much of this is either free or at low cost.

    Rapid Response

    In our 2009 White Paper, Rapid Response Management: Thriving in the New World Order we posited our new approach to managing your business.  “Rapid Response Management (RRM) is an organizational construct or mental model that enables the organization and its key partners to rapidly sense changes and respond accordingly–quickly.  While it maximizes the effectiveness of management knowledge to address change, it is not simply gut feel.  Rather it is a simple yet sophisticated, methodical paradigm any organization can quickly and inexpensively implement.”

    RRM is a creative and well documented method for running your business.  The thinking was well advanced by 2009 and has been further ‘stress tested’ over the past decade.

    We have updated RRM with our Operational Excellence Platform and interested readers are invited to check that out as well.  Our offerings are designed to help our clients get through crises such as Covid-19.

    We are updating this white paper and it will be available as an e-book in the near future.  If you would like to reserve a free copy, Contact us.

    We are here to shed some light during this dark period.  For no cost, no obligation discussion contact us.  We can put decades of experience dealing with business cycle adversity on your team.

    Feel like your trapped?  You’re NOT!

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 on April 9, 2020.  The summit will be offered again soon.  Check it Out!!

    You can contact the author as well.

  • Disrupting Disruption!

    Disrupting Disruption!

    Let me understate, ‘working in the petroleum sector has always been challenging.’  Now we find ourselves in a major economic downturn caused by a Covid-19 pandemic and aided and abetted by an international crude oil price war.

    Once again, many thousands have lost their livelihood and possibly not return to a similar job as the industry consolidates and restructures both organizationally and operationally.  However, much has changed and for the better since this writer first experienced a major retraction in the 1980s.

    Back in the day, choices then included sending hundreds of hardcopy resumes hoping the right person would find/like it out of an overflowing inbox or leave the sector and look for better pastures.  Collectively, impacted individuals tried both.  Certainly, there was not a feeling that we were in command of our destiny, even if we knew someone who could help us.

    Today, we are the Master and Commander of our voyage!

    I See Things

    Visions of armies of energy workers becoming software programmers are probably hallucinations.  Some might but many will not have the ability, temperament or interest in such a feat.

    There are always winners and losers in any disruption.  Already, there are signs that the traditional retail sales processes are accelerating on a path they were already on.  Upscale restaurants now feature ‘take out.’

    Some who once worked for manufacturers, oil producers and other core companies will most likely find new careers with suppliers to those firms.  This may be especially true of supply chain, business process and technologies such as IT and engineering.  For example, operators will look to Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) and qualified suppliers to implement their Digitalization business models.

    Those with technical skills such as Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics (STEM) will be in demand for both recall to older business models but more likely to enable new ones.  Other emerging energy sectors include renewables and their derivatives.

    Entire, global business models are under scrutiny and change is inevitable.  Older sluggish companies will be replaced with new agile entrants.  Just look at how Amazon evolved from an online book seller to their current position.

    How to Disrupt

    What if I want to strike out?  For those who feel alone and not sure which way to turn, there is help available right now!  As far as I know everything listed below is at no cost and RRI knows these resources directly—no third parties.

    • “Esri, the global leader in location intelligence, announced that it would provide free access to its ArcGIS platform and training resources to professionals worldwide who are impacted by work furloughs during the COVID-19 outbreak.
    • Do you have a great idea for an energy-based startup company, but not sure where to start? I am on the leadership team of the Global Energy Mentors and we provide free mentoring services.  Check us out and you do not have to reside in the Houston metro area!
    • Looking for help from the Small Business Administration and again, don’t know who to call? Let us know and will put you in contact with the Houston office.
    • There are other opportunities available where we can help you. For example, the BBL Ventures Energy & Industrial Tech Challenge and Eunike Ventures it’s Alliance Partners are seeking innovative technologies via our 2020 Technology Open Call.  There are others as well and to date, the Innovation and Acceleration sector remains active.
    • Got a quick question? Contact us for 30 minutes of free online/email consulting limited to the first 50 and perhaps more.  We know of numerous additional resources and hopefully can direct you.

    Moreover, almost anyone can develop an App about any subject or issue.  What’s bugging you for which there is NO App or other solution?  Guess what, you now the Subject Matter Expert in that field.  Search App Development for all manor of free or low cost tools and help.

    Changes of the magnitude discussed herein can be daunting but there is no reason for any of us to fail in this transformation.  When faced with few or no options in your current career environment—What do you have to lose?

    Why let this disruption control you?  You control it!

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 on April 9, 2020.  The summit will be offered again soon.  Check it Out!!

    You can contact the author as well.

  • Tumultuous Decade: What’s Next for Oil & Gas?

    Tumultuous Decade: What’s Next for Oil & Gas?

    April 20, 2020 marks the tenth anniversary of one of the most horrific incidents in the upstream oil and gas sector—Deepwater Horizon.  In addition to the tragic loss of eleven lives, the sector forever changed.  Immediate restructuring of federal oversight resulted in the establishment of the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) and their subsequent Safety Culture Policy.

    The industry changed too.  One of the first efforts following Macondo was the formation of the Marine Well Containment Company.  Its mission is to rapidly respond to Deepwater incidents in the Gulf of Mexico.  Subsequent organizations are also positioned around the world.

    Moreover, the industry embraced Safety Culture and continues to improve based upon Systemic Safety Cultures across organizational ecosystems.  These processes are incorporated into Operations Management Systems that incorporate SEMS as part of Operational Excellence Initiatives.

    In 2014, the sector faced another slap in the face with the collapse of oil prices, yet again.  Now it is the double whammy of the Covid-19 pandemic coupled with the price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia.

    Darkest Before the Dawn

    Each time the industry is forced to retrench, it follows a predictable pattern.  Reduction in force (layoffs), corporate restructuring and turning to technology are among the most common steps.

    This chart from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis shows the employment levels for the upstream sector since the early 1970s.  One can make the case that the level of employment in the sector is flat at best.  One likely cause is automation and the extensive use of information technology to manage the business.

    Note: This chart is current as of March 2020

    In 1970, the US population was a little more than 205 million.  Now it tops 330 million.  This supports a hypothesis that the per capita employment by the sector is decreasing.  We expect this to continue.

    The Digital Oilfield marches on with the advent of IT-OT Convergence, Digitalization, etc.  This process has been underway since at least the late 1970s with the advent of the first computerized data acquisition systems.  Likely, much longer if one considers for example, the invention of electric well logging by the Schlumberger brothers in 1926.

    Certainly, other technological advances have contributed as well.  The often maligned fracturing the rock traces its roots back the beginning of the industry (circa 1862).  Contemporary hydraulic fracturing was started by Halliburton in 1949 and shale ‘fracing’ by Mitchell Energy & Development Corporation during the 1990s.

    While we have not done the detailed research, historically oil companies have outsourced to engineering firms, IT companies and others that provide a service as opposed to full time employees.  Today’s disrupted employees may find better careers in the emerging sectors that support petroleum operations as well as other sectors.

    Schumpeter’s Creative Destruction is a work in ‘the patch’ today.  A lot has happened in the Deepwater Horizon incident.  Here’s to calmer waters this next ten years!

    How Are You Positioning Your Career to Capitalize on Disruption?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 on April 9, 2020.  The summit will be offered again soon.  Check it Out!!

    You can contact the author as well.

  • A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to . . . Innovation!

    A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to . . . Innovation!

    The anecdote, ‘A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to’ wherever manifests itself for a number of paths.  One interpretation; we often end up somewhere other than expected.

    We find ourselves at another historical precipice.  Some suggest Armageddon, the end of life as we know it and the emergence of a new normal.  This writer only agrees with the last two words.

    New Normal

    Since the advent of Covid-19 in the United States (probably before) the medical community has been doing some great things at hyper speed.  Now it is hard to keep up with the creative, innovative and downright amazing work being done at the global scale.

    Some argue that the new normal will include an army of remote workers.  Probably some truth to that but perhaps more importantly will be the recognition that society can quickly ‘scale’ to the global level when confronted with new and unknown threats.

    Reduced Cycle Time and Cost

    This pundit has long advocated that the use of knowledge enabled by technology can reduce project cycle time dramatically.  It can also significantly reduce project cost as well.  If we visualize the Covid-19 global initiative as a project, then perhaps most importantly we can decrease the timeline pointedly.

    To be clear, this writer has no medical training and is only prognosticating that the use of knowledge enabled by technology can reduce the overall time and impact of the pandemic.  After all, this is not 1918!

    For example, many will be familiar with the TV sitcom, M*A*S*H, set in the Korean War of the early 1950s.  We are seeing modern day versions of the Mobile Army Surgical Hospital with the deployment of new ‘temporary’ hospital beds to virus hot spots like NYC.  The medical profession has established long standing triage protocols as well.

    Moreover, the use of 3D printing has augmented the medical equipment manufacturing process in ways no one could have foreseen on January 1, 2020.  Changes in Clinical Trial protocols and other pharmaceutical related processes are, as the saying goes, ‘on steroids’ destroying this virus.

    The list goes on and shortly after this publication, this post will probably be outdated—the rate of positive change is so explosive right now.

    Donald Rumsfeld gets credit for saying, “There are known knowns.  These are things we know that we know.  There are known unknowns.  That is to say, there are things that we know we don’t know.  But there are also unknown unknowns.  There are things we don’t know we don’t know.”  However, this construct has its roots in the 1950s.

    I am betting that last sentence will fall sooner rather than later.  We are rapidly learning what we don’t know we don’t know.

    Godspeed to all on the front line and those of us who are not will continue to support you in every way known and about the be known that we can.  This writer grows less concerned about the final outcome every day.  It seems that collectively Humankind is rising up to the challenge.  We will prevail!

    How is your knowledge enabled to contribute to the demise of this pandemic?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We will be presenting, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 beginning April 5, 2020.  Check it Out!!

    You can contact the author as well.