The Rapid Response Institute

Tag: systemic risk

  • Reputation, Reputation, Reputation

    Reputation, Reputation, Reputation

    “It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it.  If you think about that, you’ll do things differently.”

    – Warren Buffett

    It is fascinating how many accident videos get posted to social media.  Guess we all go to NASCAR races to see car wrecks.  In some cases, videos are personal disasters for those involved.  In some cases, they are downright funny and in the category of what were they thinking.

    Equipment and facilities damage, lost production/project time, personal injury litigation are just some obvious costs.  One hidden cost is reputational damage.  Would you hire a firm that hires, does not train, and/or tolerates some of this behavior?  Probably not, and in some case a strong safety record is part of the procurement decision process.

    Risk Mitigation

    Most of the social media video show failures in occupational safety.  Typically, in the United States these would fall under the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) and/or state and local safety regulations.  This is laudable, but without a broader safety governance framework, a lackadaisical attitude can continue.

    Under a Strong Bond Governance Framework, a robust Operations Management System (OMS) enables both public and private firms to realize the Safety Culture they seek that will keep them off the social media most watched list.

    Strong Bond Governance

    An organizational governance model with the following attributes first put forth by the author in our seminal 2014 book, following the Deepwater Horizon incident.

    • Direct, defined relationships that enables open and valid information between governance members.
    • Led by authorities who are closely connected and strongly bonded.
    • Strong Governance, Risk, and Compliance (GRC) system.
    • Back office and field processes combined into a single information model (OT-IT).
    • Designed for application and use in Mission-Critical Environments. [i]

    [i] Holland, Winford “Dutch” E. and Shemwell, Scott M. (2014). Implementing a Culture of Safety: A Roadmap to Performance-Based Compliance. New York: Xlibris.

    Operational Excellence

    Operational Excellence is the execution of the business strategy more consistently and reliably than the competition, with lower operational risk, lower operating costs, and increased revenues relative to its competitor.  It is needed more than ever in today’s technology driven rapidly changing business models, which require organizations to undergo end-to-end business transformation. Operational Excellence can also be viewed as execution excellence. 

    However, the focus of Operational Excellence goes beyond the traditional continuous improvement methods to a long-term change in organizational culture.  Companies in pursuit of Operational Excellence do two things significantly differently than other companies: they manage their business and operational processes systematically and invest in developing the right culture. 

    Operational Excellence manifests itself through integrated performance across revenue, cost, and risk. It focuses on meeting customer expectation through the continuous improvement of the operational processes and the culture of the organization.  The goal is to develop one single, integrated enterprise level management system with ideal flow.  The second component, a culture of Operational Discipline, is commonly described as doing the right thing, the right way, every time.  This culture is built upon guiding principles of integrity, questioning attitude, always problem-solving, daily continuous improvement mind-set, level of knowledge, teamwork, and process driven.

    Organizations attain and sustain Operational Excellence using tools such as Operations Management System OMS).

    A Typical OMS Framework includes all the major areas involved in organizational processes such as shown in this graphic.

    OMS is a collection of processes and procedures enabling a company to effectively manage business practices and achieve the highest level of Operational Excellence in daily operations.

    One of the more notable examples is the Safety and Environmental Management System (SEMS).  SEMS embodies the Safety Culture into the organization’s OMS.  This systemic model is incorporated into a Strong Bond Governance Framework causing safety to become ‘the way we do business.’  In other words, the culture of the organization and by extension its Ecosystem.

    Systemic Safety Culture

    In a culture of safety, people are not merely encouraged to work toward change; they take action when it is needed.  Inaction in the face of safety problems is taboo, and eventually the pressure comes from all directions — from peers as well as leaders. There is no room in a culture of safety for those who uselessly point fingers or say, “Safety is not my responsibility, so I’ll file a report and wash my hands of it.” 

    — Institute for Healthcare Improvement

    Systemic Safety Culture is the Core Set of Values and Behavioral Economics of ALL participants of the extended organization and its Enterprise Risk Management strategy that reflect a Strong Bond Governance commitment to behaving as a High Reliability Enterprise Ecosystem in a safe and environmentally responsible manner.

    Most Safety Cultures have a set of tenets similar to the nine shown in the following list.  These are based on those developed by the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement’s (BSEE) for marine offshore oil and gas operations and are typical of those used in other Critical Infrastructure sectors.

    Nine Tenets of a Culture of Safety

    1. Leadership
    2. Problem Identification and Resolution
    3. Personal Accountability
    4. Work Processes
    5. Continuous Learning
    6. An Environment for Raising Concerns
    7. Effective Communications
    8. Trust and Respect
    9. Inquiring Attitude

    Finally, it is common practice for parties to refer to a singular industry ‘Safety Culture.’  In reality since each organization has its own culture, there are literally hundreds if not thousands of Safety Cultures in any critical infrastructure sector.  As shown in the above figure, each individual can interact routinely with a myriad of other cultures, both internal to their organization as well as with external economic players.

    After the Deepwater Horizon disaster in 2010, the authors quickly recognized that all economic players in the industry regardless of size would need to immediately adopt a Safety Culture if they were to survive.

    The resulting 2014 book, Implementing a Culture of Safety: A Roadmap for Performance Based Compliance remains one the few that readers can use as a roadmap to incorporate a Safety Culture into their Operational Excellence business model regardless of industry.

    Smart OpEx

    Fifteen years ago, large organizational Operations Management Systems were struggling to incorporate structural safety as more than the so-called, ‘slips, trips and falls’ of OSHA regulations to one where safety is endemic to the culture.  Smaller firms, often participants in the supplier ecosystem were largely forgiven.  The logic being that the major contractors and operators would assure that the final work product met Safety Culture requirements.  This is no longer the case.  Firms of all sizes in every business sector with an operations component now require an OMS to manage not just internal operations but third-party contractors as well.

    The Smart OpEx Operations Management System software solution is joint venture between The Rapid Response Institute LLC and Knowledge Ops, Inc.

    As Mr. Buffet mentions, reputations can be lost in an instant.  According to a 2007 Harvard Business Review article, “In an economy where 70% to 80% of market value comes from hard-to-assess intangible assets such as brand equity, intellectual capital, and goodwill, organizations are especially vulnerable to anything that damages their reputations.”  While almost 20 years old, the premise of the HBR piece remains the case as Boeing, Bud Light, and others can attest.

    Put systems with checks and balances in place that enable the organizational governance and protect the company from entering the Halls of the Disreputable.

    An individual’s and organization’s reputation are everything.  How are you assuring both are protected?

    Pre order our new book

    Navigating the Data Minefields:

    Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making

    We are living in an era of data and software exponential growth.  A substantive flood hitting us every day.  Geek heaven!  But what if information technology is not your cup of tea and you may even have your kids help with your smart devices?  This may not be a problem at home; however, what if your job depends on Big Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI)?

    Available April 2025

    Ordering Information

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is the coauthor of the 2023 book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be released by CRC Press in April 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross-Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg and his book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • Value from Elon Musk’s ‘Idiot Index’?

    Value from Elon Musk’s ‘Idiot Index’?

    “If the ratio is high, you’re an idiot.” – Elon Musk

    “Musk developed the ‘idiot index,’ which calculated how much more costly a finished product was than the cost of its basic materials.  If a product had a high idiot index, its cost could be reduced significantly by devising more efficient manufacturing techniques.”

    Effectively, what he is saying that if the Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) is too high, a product may either become too expensive or not sell well, if at all.  This is the basic Supply-Demand curve from Economics 101.  He is also indicating that Gross Profit will be negatively impacted as well.

    It’s the Cost Structure Stupid

    Paraphrasing the candidacy of Bill Clinton in 1992, an organization needs to develop a cost structure that not only lowers Total Cost as low as possible but sustains this approach while assuring the produced product/service is fit-for-purpose.

    According to the Corporate Finance Institute, “Cost structure refers to the various types of expenses a business incurs and is typically composed of fixed and variable costs.  Costs may also be divided into direct and indirect costs.  Fixed costs are costs that remain unchanged regardless of the amount of output a company produces, while variable costs change with production volume.

    Direct costs are costs that can be attributed to a specific product or service, and they do not need to be allocated to the specific cost object.  Indirect costs are costs that cannot be easily associated with a specific product or activity because they are involved in multiple activities.

    Operating a business must incur some kind of costs, whether it is a retail business or a service provider.  Cost structures differ between retailers and service providers, thus the expense accounts appearing on a financial statement depend on the cost objects, such as a product, service, project, customer or business activity.  Even within a company, cost structure may vary between product lines, divisions or business units, due to the distinct types of activities they perform.”

    We see that cost management is much more than simply lowering the procurement costs of parts or subcomponents going into the manufacturing product.  It is all about the design of the firm and its culture!

    Parasite Control

    One of the challenges all organizations face is ‘Cost Creep.’  Management needs to but guardrails in place to assure a low-cost structure business model remains that way.  Service firms are just as susceptible as manufactures. 

    According to one source circa 2000, professional services cost creep aka parasite control can be defined as, “Too many people whose services are not really required trying to use it as their meal ticket.”  Originally used in the context of the space exploration sector; however, in this writer’s opinion this issue is not restricted to that one industrial segment.

    At one point in my career, I was the executive responsible for a number of large successful simultaneous consulting engagements.  Other projects were either not doing as well or winding down.  Two things started happening.

    First, I discovered that those not on one of my projects were trying to bill their time to one or more projects.  Either as a direct ‘accounting code’ attempt or more frequently as a ‘contributor.’  One individual even tried to charge for his local mileage under the premise that while he lived in Houston, he was tied to a practice in Atlanta.  Thus, in his opinion he was remote.

    Point being, any project can be subject to parasite control.  “Cost Creep” is an ongoing managerial problem that must be shut down when found, the real costs clawed back and allocated correctly.

    Robust Cost Management

    Aggressively addressing costs at all levels is neither idiotic nor stupid.  It has always been a business fact of life and as of this writing, the federal government bureaucracy is discovering it is the ‘new normal.’

    Moreover, this never-ending pursuit of cost perfection will have a new player shortly.  Artificial Intelligence (AI) is rapidly gaining traction in our everyday operations.  The audit process is part of cost management, and we already have examples of the use of AI in the audit process.  Expect more to come and sooner rather than later.

    We have an Operations Management System implementation underway where AI will play a pivotal role in Phase II later this year.  We will report back once it has ‘gone live.’

    What are your organization’s plans to vigorously manage costs?

    Pre order our new book

    Navigating the Data Minefields:

    Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making

    We are living in an era of data and software exponential growth.  A substantive flood hitting us every day.  Geek heaven!  But what if information technology is not your cup of tea and you may even have your kids help with your smart devices?  This may not be a problem at home; however, what if you job depends on Big Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI)?

    Available April 2025

    Ordering Information

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is the coauthor of the 2023 book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be released by CRC Press in April 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross-Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg and his book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • Process Audit-Musk Style: A Systems Analysis Solution

    Process Audit-Musk Style: A Systems Analysis Solution

    “Auditing is defined as the on-site verification activity, such as inspection or examination, of a process or quality system, to ensure compliance to requirements.”  Elon Musk has just changed the Auditing Game!

    Most readers are aware that Elon Musk is leading a small task force of developers to assess the processes and spend of various federal government agencies, i.e., USAID.  This pundit has been of the belief that this group is using Artificial Intelligence (AI) to address this, as he did when assessing the proposed budget in December 2024.

    Observers were astonished with the speed and accuracy of this AI driven assessment.  Gone are the days of thousands of pages of unreadable bills where congressional leaders demand instantaneous passage in the ‘wee hours’ of night.  No more, “We have to pass the bill so that you can find out what is in it.”

    Too Big to Fail, No More!

    The long-standing mantra for major, critical sectors such as Money Center Banks is that they are too big and too important to be allowed to fail.  By this logic, US federal government agencies are at the top of that very short list.

    Assuming the following post on 𝕏 is factual, Musk and company have the developed the basis of a new company.  One that will restructure the way auditing is conducted for large complex organizations.

    The EKO article is a quick and compelling read, and we will not repost here.  Key take aways, this pundit took include that crawling through decades of data:

    • Three subsystems were mapped quickly as were payment flows across agencies.  Patterns were revealed that even career individuals did not know existed
    •  $17 billion in redundant programs were detected and are growing
    • “The beautiful thing about payment systems,” noted a transition official watching their screens, “is that they don’t lie. You can spin policy all day long, but money leaves a trail.”
    • “That trail led to staggering discoveries. Programs marked as independent revealed coordinated funding streams. Grants labeled as humanitarian aid showed curious detours through complex networks. Black budgets once shrouded in secrecy began to unravel under algorithmic scrutiny.”
    • “By 6 AM, Treasury’s career officials began arriving for work. They found systems they thought impenetrable already mapped. Networks they believed hidden already exposed. Power structures built over decades revealed in hours.”
    • “Their traditional defenses—slow-walking decisions, leaking damaging stories, stonewalling requests—proved useless against an opponent moving faster than their systems could react.  By the time they drafted their first memo objecting to this breach, three more systems had already been mapped.”

    The list goes on, but readers get the point and can do their own detailed review.  Also, one expects that much more will be made public in the near future.

    Graphic is taken from the linked 𝕏 article.

    2025-02-10_13h13_41

    Value Proposition to ‘We the People’

    Bureaucrats are hired hands.  The citizens of the United States of America are the client.  Some argue that government is different than a profit or non-profit organization.  But is it?  Isn’t government responsible for delivering goods and services in accordance with its customers wishes?  If not, what is the role of Washington, DC and every state capital?

    This pundit has focused on Operational Excellence (OE). We have developed economic models that document (with support) measurable as well as soft value that can be attained and sustained from OE initiatives.  We believe this approach is applicable to governmental agencies as well.

    Nature of Auditing

    According to the American Society for Quality (ASQ), Auditing has three components:

    • Process Audit–Verification that processes are working within established limits
    • Product Audit–Assess whether or not products and services conform to accepted standards and requirements
    • System Audit–Assessment of management systems, i.e., Operations Management Systems (OMS)

    The principal objective of the systems analysis phase is the specification of what the system needs to do to meet the requirements of end users.  Isn’t what Musk has done the holistic integration of data acquisition and initial assessment of the three components of an Audit?

    There are no longer three components (four if one included financial reporting) but ONE.  Not just Game Changing but the Creative Destruction of the esteemed auditing profession.

    Future Role of Professional Services

    This writer’s career spans the gulf of large software development teams to the configuration using tools by as few as one individual.  This is a pattern many processes deal with, for example fast food, discrete manufacturing, energy exploration, medical and others.

    Jobs are retooled and affected individuals find careers elsewhere and by the way, you’re never too old.  Millions of individuals in the private sector have met this challenge and some more than once.

    Apparently, Musk only had four (4) IT types working on this DOGE project.  Certainly, others had to assess his findings and make decision, but the data acquisition was inexpensive and fast.

    This suggests massive and wrenching changes to the professional services status quo.  Smaller, focused with fewer billable hours compensated teams.  The upside, this may lead to a Value Pricing Model.

    Musk Auditing LLC?

    Has Elon launched another company with the high visibility first customer?  This pundit thinks so.  And what a demo!

     “The US Auditing Services Market size is estimated at USD 51.88 billion in 2025, and is expected to reach USD 60.94 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 3.27% during the forecast period (2025-2030).”  I rest my case.  Then there is the Rest of the World!

    One lesson for all of us; any profession can be instantly made irrelevant with emerging technologies and the will power of new entrants.  At all costs, stay ahead of the curve.

     

    How will your organization deal with this game changer?

    Pre order our new book

    Navigating the Data Minefields:

    Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making

    We are living in an era of data and software exponential growth.  A substantive flood hitting us every day.  Geek heaven!  But what if information technology is not your cup of tea and you may even have your kids help with your smart devices?  This may not be a problem at home; however, what if you job depends on Big Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI)?

    Available April 2025

    Ordering Information

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is the coauthor of the 2023 book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be released by CRC Press in April 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross-Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg and his book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • Who Owns the Intellectual Property Generated by AI?

    Who Owns the Intellectual Property Generated by AI?

    Disclaimer:  The author is not an attorney, and this document is not meant to be a legal opinion in any sense.  Interested readers should contact their legal counsel for any Intellectual Property (IP) determination.  This blog simply raises a question that is generally not addressed regarding ownership rights of the content and products developed using artificial intelligence emerging technologies.  One suspects that going forward, this issue will become more forefront.

    Moreover, this is a fast-moving environment with new local laws and promulgated regulations continuously updated.  Readers are cautioned that some of the materials herein may be quickly dated.  Appropriate legal counsel and other experts should be consulted.

    Like most new software technologies, there is a period of the Wild West where anything seems to go.  Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been no different, but now these horses are beginning to be reined in.

    It is generally accepted that the ownership of content developed using third party software belongs to the generator of said content.  Data, the results of analytics and their interpretation, computer generated audio video materials, etc. are generally covered by this convention and codified by law.  The spreadsheet vendor does not own the financial analysis that leads to major value add to the firm.  Conversely, if the financial model is flawed, the software developer is generally not liable.

    However, Artificial Intelligence is a different technology model.  It dictates that organizational AI policies recognize the disruptive change caused.  For example, the publisher of my new book, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making has issued its author, AI Policy.

    An AI engine searches for data and information from a wide variety of sources.  It then amalgamates and analyzes and/or develops what some consider a new product or solution–document, image, or new approach/model, e.g. medical technique.  However, did the AI secure permission from the data owner(s) or even cite its source(s)?  The most likely answer is no.  A follow-on statement might be, “why do we need that?”

    Copyright

    According to the U.S. Copyright Office, “Copyright is a type of intellectual property that protects original works of authorship as soon as an author fixes the work in a tangible form of expression.  In copyright law, there are a lot of different types of works, including paintings, photographs, illustrations, musical compositions, sound recordings, computer programs, books, poems, blog posts, movies, architectural works, plays, and so much more!”  The Copyright Office goes on to state, “Works are original when they are independently created by a human author and have a minimal degree of creativity.”
     
    In the UK, “Two conflicting views emerged.  The tech sector believes the copyright to AI-generated content should belong to users, whereas the creative sector wants this content to be excluded from ownership completely.”
     
    From a 2022 Reuters article about a lawsuit over, Gen AI generated content.
    “Accordingly, unless a generative AI is used in such a manner that its output would be recognizably linked to some person or entity who is likely to actively police the use of their works and whose works are likely to be registered, the risk of the generative AI’s users being sued for infringement seems low.
     
    In practice, the legal issues surrounding generative AI mean that its outputs should be handled in a manner similar to materials covered by open source or creative commons licenses — i.e., with policies and procedures which ensure use only in appropriate manners and cases.  This includes determining if a project where generative AI would be used is something whose results would need to be protected and, if so, determining whether tools are available for that protection other than copyright.
     
    It also includes avoiding high risk uses, such as using generative AI to attempt to replicate the work of a particular artist whose materials were used as training data. However, with intentionality and forethought, the risks associated with generative AI can be managed, and this new technology can bring tremendous benefits to those who deploy it intelligently.“
     
    Later, we will address two other types of Intellectual Property, Patents and Trademarks.  Both have a lengthy pedigree as well that must be considered in our new AI era.
     

    Data Privacy

    Data privacy and security are major issues organizations must deal with, and the regulatory burden is onerous.  Most readers have heard of HIPPA; the need to keep individual medical records confidential.  HIPPA is symptomatic of the need to treat ALL data in secure and private.

    From the GDPR, “The General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) is the toughest privacy and security law in the world.  Though it was drafted and passed by the European Union (EU), it imposes obligations onto organizations anywhere, so long as they target or collect data related to people in the EU.  The regulation was put into effect on May 25, 2018.   The GDPR will levy harsh fines against those who violate its privacy and security standards, with penalties reaching into the tens of millions of euros.”

    The EU regulations are viewed as the ‘gold standard’ and others worldwide are in the process of emulating them.  Increased date management regulations are a given, as is their impact on AI learning.

    IP Guardrails

    Individuals and organizations jealously guard their intellectual properties, as they should.  Just think of the significant value Disney has built over 100 years from a cartoon mouse.

    Some may see AI as an assault on the organization’s core and take legal action they believe appropriate.  Others will try to capitalize on loopholes.  This is not different behavior from the IP current practice.

    AI advocates will find themselves in the midst of what could be a significant number of legal challenges as the technology and its regulation matures.  The current long-standing legal battles over social media platforms is but one example of this process.

    IP Ownership of AI Generated Content: The Movie

    Summary of the Video

    Briefly, in the video dated January 7, 2024, the attorney makes the following key points:

    • Copyright extends only to humans and AI content generated by products such as ChatGPT do not meet the ‘human’ authorship test.  However, if a human is actively engaged in the development of (and change) said content, things get less clear.
    •  Regarding AI generated inventions, Patent law becomes more relevant.  The speaker argues that ‘at least today’ patent laws mirror copyright because human creativity is key.
    • As far as AI generated Trademarks are concerned, these products such as logos, tag lines, etc. do not enjoy original authorship protection, but their ‘first use’ has precedence.  For more information he references the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO).
    • Finally, he states that this area of the law is unfolding, and change is likely.

    These points were transcribed by this pundit.  As such, they are only his perception and must be viewed skeptically when addressing a specific ‘real’ question regarding this subject matter.  The attorney’s fifth bullet is probably the most important one.

    Final Thoughts

    Intellectual Property ownership is an area that technologists and software developers are generally not involved with.  Additionally, many have historically treated the content found online as if it is in the public domain.  We now know that authorship should be attributed.

    For most of the things individuals and organizations do with online content this is not an issue.  Blogs, political opinion and technology critique among others come to mind.

    However, AI has the potential to change fortunes (wealth, reputation and other) of individuals and organizations.  Finally, the regulatory environment is evolving, and dramatic changes are most likely forthcoming.

    Individual creators, management and others have a responsibility to assure AI developed content meets, and not just the regulations (in each jurisdiction the firm operates in).  Moreover, governance enforcement models must add AI technologies and assure that others are not infringing on the firm’s IP with potential risks of capital and reputational loss.

    One Last Thing

    With the need to protect data as well as assure all key intellectual property is protected, will this negatively impact on the output of AI models?  What will be the basis of gen AI training if it cannot gain access to the universe of data they require?  And yes, I know we often sign away certain rights when we engage with some organizations, but we can ‘opt out’ of allowing access to our data.

    Another Blog for a later time but in the meantime, just a question.

    How is your organization addressing these and other Intellectual Property issues emerging from Gen AI and other content developers?

    Pre order our new book

    Navigating the Data Minefields:

    Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making

    We are living in an era of data and software exponential growth.  A substantive flood hitting us every day.  Geek heaven!  But what if information technology is not your cup of tea and you may even have your kids help with your smart devices?  This may not be a problem at home; however, what if you job depends on Big Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI)?

    Available April 2025

    Ordering Information

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is the coauthor of the recently published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be published by CRC Press in 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross-Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg and his book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • Strategic Sourcing?

    Strategic Sourcing?

    Is outsourcing software development strategic or simply a cost saving method?

    It Depends

    The most infamous words in software development.  Yes, it depends on the task at hand, but this cop out has long been a way to forego the development of a robust economic value and risk assessment.

    According to one vendor, “Engineering started becoming a commodity.”  But is this true if your product and organizational reputation are based on the long-earned perception that your organization provides the very best in safe and cost-effective solutions?

    What is your solution must work all the time, every time, e.g. medical equipment?  The list goes on, but readers get the point.

    Strategic Sourcing

    According to CIPS, the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply, “Strategic sourcing is about having a targeted approach to your procurement activity.  A sourcing strategy will help you to formalise the way you gather information, so you can find the best possible value that aligns with your organisation’s goals, long term.  Strategic sourcing is a long-term process and requires continuous re-evaluation of sourcing activities, analysis of the market and recognising your organisations goals.

    Strategic sourcing is important because it can help you save costs through the monitoring of the market and sourcing the right suppliers.  It also acts as a way to maintain long-term relationships with suppliers and they are selected on their compatibility with your organisation’s goals.”

    While strategic sourcing has its value, it cannot replace organization core competency.  These are two very different business requirements.

    Core Competency

    From One definition, “core competencies refer to the capabilities, knowledge, skills and resources that constitute its defining strengths.  Core competencies distinguish a company from other organizations and are, therefore, not easily replicated by those organizations, whether they’re existing competitors or new entrants into its market.”

    Not all engineering meets the test of core competency, but management must perform proper ‘due diligence’ before outsourcing technology and processes that either do or might meet this test.  In other words, effective Risk Profiling.

    Max 8 Headlines, Again

    The once storied aerospace firm, Boeing just can’t seem to catch a break.  A self-made purgatory: the gift that keeps on giving.  Offshoring engineering software development as a cost saving method appears to have backfired.

    Damningly, Multiple investigations – including a Justice Department criminal probe – are trying to unravel how and when critical decisions were made about the Max’s software.  During the crashes of Lion Air and Ethiopian Airlines planes that killed 346 people, investigators suspect, the MCAS system pushed the planes into uncontrollable dives because of bad data from a single sensor.

    That design violated basic principles of redundancy for generations of Boeing engineers, and the company apparently never tested to see how the software would respond, Lemme said.  “It was a stunning fail,” he said.  “A lot of people should have thought of this problem – not one person – and asked about it.”

    To this observer, it appears that this software met the test for core competency.  If this is the case, why would this be outsourced to save a few bucks?  It certainly appears to be outside the organization’s culture of redundancy that has served the organization well for decade.  A third-party vendor most likely would not share this cultural trait.

    How does your organization handle Bet Your Company procurement decisions?

    Pre order our new book

    Navigating the Data Minefields:

    Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making

    We are living in an era of data and software exponential growth.  A substantive flood hitting us every day.  Geek heaven!  But what if information technology is not your cup of tea and you may even have your kids help with your smart devices?  This may not be a problem at home; however, what if you job depends on Big Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI)?

    Available April 2025

    Ordering Information

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the recently published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be published by CRC Press in 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross-Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg and his book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • The Crisis/Challenge of AI in 2025

    The Crisis/Challenge of AI in 2025

    “Many processes are repeatable and only data inputs change.”

                                                                                                         — Scott Shemwell, 2023.

    Technology disruption has been with humankind since the first invention.  We get used to one model and suddenly, a new way supplants the old.  Much has been written about the innovation process, and it is not the focus of this Blog to regurgitate the obvious.

    However, Wikipedia states, “Beyond business and economics disruptive innovations can also be considered to disrupt complex systems, including economic and business-related aspects.  Through identifying and analyzing systems for possible points of intervention, one can then design changes focused on disruptive interventions.”  This is the broader focus of this piece.

    Human Redundancy?

    One if the ongoing concerns, “will AI replace humans?”  As of this writing, many do not believe it will, at least anytime soon.  Interestingly, according to Harvard professor Karim Lakhani, “Just as the internet has drastically lowered the cost of information transmission, AI will lower the cost of cognition.”  This is consistent with the traditional path of Information Technology innovation.

    Moreover, this concern is not new.  In her 1983 paper, Ironies of Automation, Lisanne Bainbridge posited that there are inherent problems with automating workflow, humans are still required for tasks that are not easily (if at all) automated.  Oversight of automation requires more training in new job skills, not less.  More recently, the former Chief Scientist of the US Air Force points out the “Original Ironies of Automation is highly relevant with regards to today’s new wave of AI-enhanced automation.  Near misses and incidents involving human automation operations often arise from a mismatch between the properties of the system as a whole and the characteristics of human information processing.”

    In our forthcoming book we address the need for Strong Oversight coupled with Standardization and Risk Tolerance to address the broader need for upskilling today.  According to McKinsey, “Any engineering talent rethink needs to begin with an understanding of how gen AI will affect the product development life cycle.”

    Paraphrasing Mark Twain, “The rumors of Human demise are greatly exaggerated.”  AI is here to stay and should be embraced with cautionary guardrails as it is still immature and subject to error.

    Human Factors

    One pundit refers to the ‘Human Edge‘ as the competitive Advantage we have over machines.  This pundit has long been an advocate for Human Factors when it comes to managing technology, especially emerging technology used for process or production management.  The risk profile otherwise is just to0 steep and high.  One only has to look at the recent travails of the once venerable firm, Boeing.

    2025 and Beyond

    Artificial Technology, its future derivative products and solutions not yet envisioned will continue.  Most likely at the breakneck speed or faster of today.  Remember when we used to think of the Internet growth in terms of Dog Years?  Insect Years may be the new metric.

    Many, including this writer as documented in our book, believe AI et al is just entering the explosive growth on the maturation curve.  We must live with it and the most successful will get ‘on board’ when the timing is right for them.

    Exciting times lie before us all and it is a great time to be alive, at least from a technology perspective.

    How are you, your family and work colleagues prepared for the future?

    Pre order our new book

    Navigating the Data Minefields:

    Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making

    We are living in an era of data and software exponential growth.  A substantive flood hitting us every day.  Geek heaven!  But what if information technology is not your cup of tea and you may even have your kids help with your smart devices?  This may not be a problem at home; however, what if you job depends on Big Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI)?

    Available April 2025

    Ordering Information

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the recently published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be published by CRC Press in 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross-Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg and his book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • What Does ‘Systemic’ Actually Mean?

    What Does ‘Systemic’ Actually Mean?

    The word Systemic is tossed around quite loosely these days.  Especially when discussing social issues and politics.

    But what does it really mean when we say something is systemic by nature?  By one definition it is, “Of or relating to a system or a system and other relating to or affecting the entire body or an entire organism.”  Indeed a broad judgement.

    So when we say an entire nation is a systemically ‘blank blank,’ does that include the prognosticator that is making that statement?  Are those caught in the cross hairs of a so called systemic belief equally feel the same way about all other groups?  Not bloody likely as my Brit buddies say.

    How Do We Define a System?

    One definition of the word includes the world or universe.  Typically, we think of something smaller and ‘bounded.’  What do we mean by bounded?  Readers might be surprised that this term is a mathematical term describing a function, sequence or variation of a function.  In layman’s terms, systems have limits whether the human body, an organization, or society.

    Systems also have ecosystems and are not all organic in and of them selves and they interact with other systems.  For example, a commercial firm has suppliers and customers as well as local governments and even media outlets.

    Therefore, complexity is an inherent components and human constituents to ALL systems.  This stands by reason in our very robust and diverse world today.

    As such human behavior can take many different decision paths regarding any given issue.  We discuss these causal affects in our 2017 piece, Excellent Behaviors: Assessing Relationships in the Operational Excellence Ecosystem.

    It Is Not That Easy

    Defining the systemic nature of any system is very difficult.  NO system can be defined by one word.  Systems are complex sets of moving interdependent parts whose boundary is often ill defined.

    Decision makers must assure they are using valid and reliability data as they define the problem they are trying to solve.  Without such preparation, the answer put forth may be incorrect or meaningless.

    Next time a colleague or pundit is tossing around the word ‘systemic’ as them what they mean and when they say it means ALL, ask them how do they know that?

    In and of itself the term is meaningless.  Without a detailed definition of the system being discussed, good decisions are not possible and most likely will be poorly implemented with predictable results.

    So if you believe a system is a mess, how do you go about fixing?  Methodical or emotional?  One will work better that the other approach.

    What do you mean when you say something is systemic?

    If you need help with your complex system, see below and contact us.

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the just published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • ESG Explained

    ESG Explained

    According to Investopedia, “Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria are a set of standards for a company’s operations that socially conscious investors use to screen potential investments.”  Definitions of the three components are pretty straightforward:

    • Environmental–Generally refers to the stewardship of the planet and how organizations facilitate that responsibility.
    • Social–Facilitating organizational responsibility to the global society, at all levels from the globe to the local communities firms operate in.
    • (Corporate) Governance–Typically, the umbrella organizations put in place to assure issues such as transparency, fraud, safety culture and ethics are in compliance with social norms and local regulations.

    Since the Deepwater Horizon incident of April 2020, operators (oil and gas companies) have extended and enhanced the above criteria to their supply chain ecosystem and in some cases even customers with a Safety and Environmental Management System (SEMS).  This is true of most other Critical Infrastructure sectors as well.

    Likewise, the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 enhanced transparency and increased fraud protection after the Enron (and other) scandals.  Other incidents have triggered governance changes as well and some are referred to in linked materials.

    Why Is ESG Important?

    By one account, approximately $12 trillion in investments made in 2018 were driven by those who consider themselves socially responsible.  According to Forbes, in 2019 this accounted for almost 25% of total investments and are seen through the lens of sustainability.  Moreover, between 2016 to 2018, the growth rate in such firms grew at 38 percent.

    These numbers confirm our research going back to the turn of the century and perhaps earlier.  In 1993 we controversially posited that the Principles of Scientific Management were applicable to software development by Knowledge Workers.  Developed by Frederick Taylor, his monograph was published circa 1911.

    In other words, owners (investors) have always demanded top notch, legal and ethical performance.  Activist investors, i.e. Carl Icahn are not new.  As always, they have a very important role to play in the current markets.

    Asset/Equipment Integrity Governance

    There is a buzz of newness to ESG; however, from a contrarian perspective, this is not necessarily the case.  After the Deepwater Horizon failure with significant loss of live and many billions in economic losses to many parties including BP, it became clear that traditional Governance models did not have a focus on operations and the management of capital assets, i.e., manufacturing plants, marine vessels and other revenue producing sources.

    In our book we addressed a New Risk Environment from large corporate operations in which ‘failure is really not an option.”  We stated as a risk element, “Escalation of Consequences: The level of consequences of a disaster in the energy industry can now be larger than from the accidental release of a multi-megaton nuclear weapon.”

    Still governance models continued to struggle.  We believe that in the critical infrastructure sectors there is a lack of strong bonding, in other words top management is still hands off and operating from historical ‘control’ models that are no longer relevant or applicable.

    We do not believe this will change until a Strong Bond (tightly coupled) model is adopted.  We define the term as, “A strong model is used by High Reliability Organizations (HRO) and as part of that model, trained; knowledgeable personnel are empowered to make the right decisions in the field.  The strong model provides an organization with the capability to become and remain and HRO.”

    In 2011, we released our monograph, Asset/Equipment Integrity Governance: Operations–Enterprise Alignment; A Case for Board Oversight (AEIG).  In addition to developing a financial model documenting the Return on Investment (ROI) from strong governance, a Compliance Model, as well as a robust AEIG Matrix which incorporates an Asset Maturity Model are part of the solution.

    The AEIG extends the enterprise governance model to include the full ecosystem including subcontractors to its primary supply chain partners.  While not directly addressed at the time, Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) is implicit in the model.

    This roadmap is comprehensive and is a good starting point for developing and implementing a vigorous ESG initiative.  Other monographs in our Changing the Dialogue series (exploring our New Business Dynamics) include Structural Dynamics and Rapid Response Management are available online.

    Relationships, Behaviors, Conditions

    Scroll down on The Rapid Response Institute, Operational Excellence Platform page and you will find our R B C Framework Cultural Transformation model.  Shown below for ease of readership.

    The R B C model was originally developed to research international (cross cultural) negotiations.  We have extended it to support the transformation process to a robust and model organization culture such discussed herein.  Readers should note that this model is focused on Operational Excellence and is comprised on Processes & Methods supported by Enabling Tools.

    Built on Structural Dynamics which was developed as part of Dr. Shemwell’s doctoral dissertation in 1996.  It is defined as, “The morphology or patterns of motion towards process equilibrium of interpersonal systems.”

    This proven Framework is grounded in Management Science yet is a useful tool (Roadmap) that real originations can successfully and cost effectively implement.  We believe it is the best approach for attaining ESG.

    Summary

    One can view the current ESG status as part of a continuum to hold organizations accountable as appropriate and frankly, increase their Operational Excellence.  We have long known that firm’s that are well managed command superior stock market multiples and greater equity value.

    Many ‘self-serving’ consultants and pundit would have us believe ESG is breakthrough Thought Leadership in need of their help.  Nothing could be further from the truth.

    In the early 1990s, we document the history and evolution of Management Science/Thinking.   It is not written in stone, like most human endeavors it evolves and has for thousands of years.  ESG is a step in this continuum.

    How is Your Organization Addressing the Requirements of Active Investors?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  Two current online games; Safety Culture and Diverse Teams specifically address issues raised by ESG Criteria.  If you have any questions, please contact this author as well.

    Graphic Source: The Rapid Response Institute derived from a Storyblocks image under license.

  • Clickbait Redux

    Clickbait Redux

    We are offered the world at the tip of our fingers, But!  There are many prices to pay.  Theft by scam simply by clicking on a great opportunity is getting more sophisticated all the time.

    Recently, this pundit was offered a once in a lifetime possibility if only I would listen to an MS Office (voicemail) sent to my email account.  Seemed OK, how harmful could it be?  Certainty, this world class software provider tool was safe?

    Well, as the saying goes, my mama didn’t raise no fool.  Not saying I won’t be duped at some point, but I like to think the odds are against it.  Tagged as junk, I will never know what the sender had to say.  Nor do I care, since likely it was phishing at best and possibly something worse.

    That said, businesses cannot run on the basis of individual prowess, especially when the scams often exceed hundreds a week or even a day.  Junk mail filters are much better than before but still not perfect and malefactors are always launching cyber organized criminal efforts to supersede defensive protections.

    Equally, if not more important, how many legitimate businesses lose sales or even have their reputations significantly compromise as a result of scams?  If a prospects clicks on your logo and is defrauded, her or she will most likely continue to blame the logo owner and not the criminals.

    Setting the Hook

    Fisherman know how to catch fish.  They know the right locations, time of day, cloudy or not and so forth and so on the land the ‘Big One.’

    On the other hand, digital hackers do not appear to have this ingrained focused instinct.  Perhaps, this skill is not necessary for them.

    Masquerading in plain sight, spammers try to tap into the greed in all of us.  Easy, quick and large these opportunities are attractive and many fall for them.

    As a mentor and advisor to organizations of all sizes, I consistently review product/service and even enterprise value propositions.  Frankly, many are found wanting.  Currently, the Lean Canvas construct and/or Elevator Pitch are models for succinctly posturing a position quickly.

    However, it takes a lot of effort to craft the short piece.  Only then does the firm have something of value for prospects and customers.

    While Fortune 500 et al will remain targets of cyber hacking, it is possible for others to make themselves less attractive to organized crime.  Firms should ask themselves, what is the goal for their web presence?

    In 2019, this blog addressed the “what’s in it for me question” as opposed to collecting ‘Likes.’  That edition contained a real world case study of wrong-headed thinking by a consulting firm collecting the wrong data.  As the client, we did not implement that recommendation.

    There is a fine line between building market ‘Buzz’ and simply collecting ‘Likes’.  However, the real focus should be on building repeat customers.  Recommendations from others, should still be part of the business model.

    Cyber is now an important part of every firm’s business model.  Part of the organization’s cybersecurity model has to be, “Why are individuals coming to the website?”  In other words, “What value are we providing them?”

    What is the Value of a ‘Like’ to your Organization and What is the ‘Risk’ of Obtaining One?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

  • So Here We Go Again?

    So Here We Go Again?

    Will gas lines return?

    Recent geopolitical events have driven the price of gasoline sky high–again!  As of this writing it is difficult to say where this will all lead.  What is known is that the cost of all things related to petroleum have significantly increased and may go even higher.

    According to the U.S. Department of Energy, in addition to transportation and heating, oil and gas are used in over 6,000 everyday products.  In other words, their use is pervasive in all societies and economies.

    As a response to the oil shock of 1973, in 1975 the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) developed the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).  According to the DOE, as of December 2021 the current inventory was approximately 600 million barrels of crude oil.  It is designed to be a buffer or in digital terms a cache in case of disruption or other requirements.

    Furthermore, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), in 2021 the US consumed approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day.  Assuming Russia exports 8% or approximately 1.6 million barrels (including refined products) per day to the US, this shortfall can be replaced with SDR withdraws as well as increases from both domestic producers and other exporters.

    What Do We Do Now?

    Oil and Gas are commodities and are therefore subject to the same Supply and Demand processes inherent to that segment.  Other examples include, gold, cattle, pork bellies and orange juice, etc.

    Today’s global markets perceive that the demand for gasoline is higher than the available supply.  Therefore, sellers can command higher prices.

    The apparent supply can be brought into balance with demand in two fundamental ways.  First, and easiest is to cut back on consumption, i.e., work from home, carpool, mass transit, etc.

    Second, which will take some time is for domestic production to increase.  ‘Small’ increases from trading partners and domestic operators (along with government regulatory assistance) will add up as well.

    One of the worst things that can happen is hording.  Think back to the great Toilet Paper hording in the early days of Covid-19.  It was unlikely that the daily demand for bathroom tissue suddenly increased.

    In effect, households ‘held’ the inventory (instead of stores) until it was worked down.  Manufacturers did not increase production albeit retailers began to ration individual purchases.

    The gas lines of the 1970s were also an example of hording.  Once the Odd and Even license plate model went into effect, they dissipated almost immediately.

    We need NOT go through this experience again!  We all have the tools necessary to change that narrative and not relive history.

    Dealing With the Issue

    For almost two decades we have modeled large scale economic procurement initiatives, both in the public and private sectors.  Attempts to attain 25% or more in value from initiatives are almost always destined to fail.  On the other hand, finding small components of economic value across a number of processes and departments can easily exceed pronouncements of singular, overall great value to be obtained.

    For example if several areas each find 2-5% of value opportunities, 25% can be quickly exceeded.  This works for large and small organizations.  It can work for individual households too.  One need not find the Silver Bullet or make Herculean efforts to overcome difficult challenges.

    Where Can You Find Eight One-Percent Opportunities to Decrease Your Petroleum Footprint?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    Photo Source: NPR

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

     

  • 100

    100

    This edition marks the 100th post in our Critical Mass Blog series.  We have sought to provide thoughtful, unbiased insight into the contemporary business and organizational challenges we all face.  Since our first blog post on November 27, 2017 our world has turned over in ways none expected.  Likely, this trend will continue.

    This series continues a tradition of newsletters, opinion pieces and other on line punditry first begun in 1998 with our New Millennium News.  A bi-monthly email with a subscription base of approximately 7,000 readers.  A huge number at that time.  We estimate that hundreds of thousands or more have benefited from this knowledge transfer.

    Coincidentally, we reach this milestone as we begin the new year–a time of renewal.  We will continue to address critical issues individuals, businesses, agencies and others face as we all navigate an increasingly perilous path.  This series has addressed Human Resource issues including Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) Teams , the arrival of Smart Technology, International Business, Covid-19, Supply Chain Management, Operational Excellence, Cultural Transformation (including Safety Culture) Sales, Risk Mitigation and of course Leadership.  Today’s organizations must be very good at all of these disciplines!

    Available Tools

    The mission of the Rapid Response Institute (RRI) is to enable our clients with the ability to posture themselves in their market segments so that they can thrive in volatile markets and capitalize on uncertainty, not suffer because of them.  This is especially important for those economic actors in Critical Infrastructure sectors.

    In support of this mission the firm has developed a suite of Intellectual Property (IP) which includes Know How, practical roadmap Books and guidelines as well as Software as a Service (SaaS) solutions among others.  Many readers know that once a process has been standardized with minimal configuration required, the data is the ultimate driver.  This is the heart of most Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) solutions.

    With advances in technology, RRI has taken these once multi-million dollar solutions to a price point as well as Use Case where all organizations can utilize this capability.  Moreover, our advancements in work flow such as epitomized in our Cross Cultural Serious Games, Economic Value Proposition Matrix, and Smart OpEx (Operations Management System) and Risk Simulation Modeling add immediate and significant value to the challenges faced as articulated above.  Other Free Tools are available as well.

    Pulling It All Together

    The method to our madness is–Operations!!  As some are fond of saying with derision, “It’s All About the Benjamins.”  Well, it actually is.  If ‘for-profit’ firms are not profitable, they fail.  No amount of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) will save them if they cannot deliver to paying customers.

    Everything RRI does helps organizations to deliver stakeholder value, compliant with ESG standards.  That is our Bottom Line and we are also pleased that Dr. Shemwell, Managing Director has been an independent advocate for responsible corporate success since 2004.

    FYI, major losses and legal actions do not enhance stakeholder value.  Neither for employees, local communities or equity holders.  Everyone loses when in terrible scenarios such as Deepwater Horizon, internal bias corporate hubris, poor high reliability processes/human factor shortcomings or lack of actual DEI.

    This journey continues.  Stay tuned for the next 100 editions where will continue to provide our thoughts on relevant matters.  Thank you very much for your readership and support.

    How is Your Organization Positioned for the Next Four Years?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    For more on DEI Standards, see the newly released ISO-30415.

    You can contact this author as well.

  • Heavy Metal Rocks

    Heavy Metal Rocks

    Not the rock bands of the 1960s–1980s, but the mining required to extract the heavy metals necessary for electric vehicles and other renewable energy solutions.  So, what is a heavy metal and why do we care?

    Typically, “In science, a heavy metal is a metallic element which is toxic and has a high density, specific gravity or atomic weight. However, the term means something slightly different in common usage, referring to any metal capable of causing health problems or environmental damage.”  Often these toxic elements are carcinogenic.

    For most readers this will not come as a surprise.  The heavy metals in batteries can be recycled, thus minimizing their negative impact on the environment and subsequently, humans and other life forms, i.e., the food chain.  However, smaller batteries are typically tossed into the trash.  Larger ones such as lead acid automotive batteries are usually reclaimed (for a fee to the consumer).

    From this pundit’s perspective, it is too early in the technology maturity to fully understand how millions of EV (electric vehicle) will be recycled effectively and economically.  Managing the lifecycle of these ‘elements’ from mining, use, recycling and reuse is a significant component of these renewables.  There is a cost associated with this process, both monetary and socially.

    Total Carbon Ownership

    In the business, the term TCO usually referees to the Total Cost of Ownership.  Updated, this Lifecycle metric may better reflect the Total Carbon impact of a product/solution, i.e., large scale batteries, solar panel, fossil fuels, etc.

    TCO = Carbon as a function of two major lifecycle elements; Operations and Decommissioning.

    For this purpose we define Operations (aka Use) as the lifecycle process from mineral extraction, manufacturing, deployment and maintenance.

    Decommissioning is the process of taking out of service, removal and appropriate disposal of components, including recycling.

    Follow on from our blog of November 2, 2021, where Milton Friedman detailed the complex supply chain required to manufacture a simple yellow graphite pencil, one can only imagine how complex the requirements are for a wind turbine.  Carbon neutral is not a simple problem to solve.

    Enter Structural Dynamics

    Many readers understand that Machine Learning Algorithms use the statistical multivariable method, Multiple Linear Regression–defined as, where “one variable is estimated by the use of more than one other variable.”  While this tool can be useful when assessing the impact and relationships of several independent variables, it does not necessarily help organizations to understand their TCO.

    Theoretically, every economic actor in the supply chain or the decommissioning process can calculate their carbon footprint for each​ product/step they control.  In the real world, such intangibles, i.e., safety are open to interpretation, ‘fudging’ or worse.  Moreover, we can expect large gaps or errors (inadvertent or otherwise) in carbon models that must be addressed if we are to realistically address the carbon problem.

    In the 1990s as a result of watching a number of systemic enterprise failures and/or poor performance, and wondering how this happened with such regularity the questions was raised–why?  This led this author coin the term with the subsequent book, Structural Dynamics: Foundation of Next Generation Management Science.

    Most do not understand the processes and structural changes at work on a daily basis.  Focused on near term performance metrics, they lose sight of the forest while concentrating on the trees.  The subsequent disruption caused is often rapid and economically cataclysmic.

    Structural Dynamics uses tools such as Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to seek to identify the underlying process and structural movements.  It appears to be a useful tool to address the Total Carbon Ownership that organizations will have to address in the very near future.

    Dealing With Residuals

    Whether heavy metals or carbon, organizations must also assure ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) criteria are met throughout the energy lifecycle.  However, there is a cost associated with these and other organizational structures from the deployment and/or use of energy of all types.

    TCO is a decades long cost that can transcend actual corporate life, i.e., acquisition, bankruptcy, etc.  Currently, the oil and gas industry is littered with assets no one claims ownership.  Two cases follow:

    • Stranded assets are, “those investments which are made but which, at some time prior to the end of their economic life (as assumed at the investment decision point), are no longer able to generate an economic return, as a result of changes in the market and regulatory environment.”  These resources are no longer worth continued investment.
    • Abandoned assets have reached the end of life.  By one source, it is estimated that there are approximately 53,000 Gulf of Mexico offshore oil and gas well in this category.  Remediation costs range from $500k to $10 million per well–min $26.5 billion.

    It is reasonable to expect that all sources in the ‘energy basket’ will have similar end of life futures.  Green is therefore, not unique.

    “Forewarned is Forearmed”

    A Serious Assessment

    This pundit believes that scant attention has been paid to the lifecycle (economic and social) price of renewables and that the Total Carbon Ownership cost has never been calculated–certainly not published.  However, there are tools that will shed light on this going forward.

    TCO is a function of a detailed and long lifecycle, not unlike oil and gas assets that in some cases are over half a century old.  Any subsequent model of this process is by default complex, detailed and full of unknowns, or unmeasured latent variables.

    The approached this writer has developed using Structural Equation Modeling driven by Structural Dynamics seems well fitted to address this longitudinal and futuristic problem.

    For many, the so-called ‘green energy’ seems without consequences.  The history of energy suggests otherwise.  A full assessment using Structural Dynamics can reveal gaps, misunderstandings, errors and omissions.

    This model will advise management and even regulators what the true cost of an energy source is.  The approach is worthy of a serious discussion.  By the way, this model works for all sources of energy including coal and other fossil fuels as well as renewables.

    What is Your Firm’s TCO and How Can It be Lowered?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    Interested in Cross Cultural Engagement or DEI, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.

    Contact the author for information on these and others subjects covered in the Critical Mass series.

  • Welcome to the 70s—Again!

    Welcome to the 70s—Again!

    This Baby Boomer graduated from college in 1970.  Just in time for Saturday Night Fever and Grease, Avocado colored refrigerators and Harvest Gold dinnerware.  Plus, the best friend a then bachelor ever had–the microwave oven!

    Not to forget the Gasoline Lines and Hyper Inflation, Vietnam, Peace/Race Protests/Riots, a Major Recession, Stagflation and other wonderful (not) youthful memories–ugly political and economic time not wished on future generations.  Adjusted for inflation a gallon of gasoline was $0.36 in 1970.  By 1980 it was $1.19–greater than a 330% increase.

    Seems like as Yoga Berra once said, “It’s like déjà vu all over again,” or ‘Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it.”  Yet here we are again, or so it seems.

    While I am not dusting off my leisure suit or growing what’s left of my hair, if as this boomer believes we are beginning to relive the 1970s economy, so what should we do?  How should we respond to this new, yet old situation?

    Most financial planners, corporate executives, academics, regulators and others were either not old enough or even alive when the economic and political shocks of the 1970s engulfed the globe.  Without this experienced knowledge, many maybe ill equipped to deal with the current  tsunami that is building.  Perhaps a critical concern for everyone’s 401K retirement investments?

    Hyper inflation is a cancer.  It destroys economies and even societies, not to mention families and individuals in its wake.  Real estate may be a winner if anyone can afford to purchase your house.  However, equities struggle and cash is toast.  From 1970 to 1980 the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced a scant 5 percent.

    How does this compare with an over 300% increase in the gasoline we all needed for our automobiles?  Short answer, it does not and individual households went backward during that period.

    So What Do We Do Now?

    Flight to quality.  But what represents quality?  Big Tech comes to mind but what is the underlying value proposition of a web based database?  The outage of a major player blamed on a network issue and a number of (internal) cascading issues–the plague of many industrial incidents including Deepwater Horizon questions that proposition.

    Are companies this vulnerable in our age of digitalization, or was this a sign of something else?  As with many IT oriented decisions, “It depends.”  The fact that one of the world’s largest, high profile web based companies suffered a significant outage, not as a result of a cyber attack but apparently its own technical incompetency is not reassuring in a Cloud based global economy.

    The something else–we have discussed the need for High Reliability for complex sectors including the 16 sectors the US Homeland Security deems as Critical Infrastructure.  Social media is not on that list, but manufacturing is.  In our forthcoming (2022) book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability,” we address risk mitigation strategies that can inoculate organizations from such catastrophic IT failures.

    Heavy industries such as oil and gas are routinely criticized when a catastrophic incident occurs.  These need no longer happen and we have put forth strategies routinely for more than a decade including in our 2014 book, Implementing a Culture of Safety: A Roadmap to Performance-Based Compliance.

    As we move into the ‘Smart’ era, it will be incumbent on organizations to take steps to mitigate what happened to a web based chat room provider.  The exogenous risk of critical infrastructure failing is significant, per the recent Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack and the systemic damage done to the US east coast.

    The 1970s were marked by turmoil and follow on from the late 1960s.  Richard Nixon took the country off the Gold Standard opening up significant economic and individual distress.  We appear to be on the cusp of Yogi’s cautionary tale.  It does not have to be, but appears likely.  Is the US dollar no longer the world’s reserve currency in a era of bitcoin?  If so, what are the ramifications?

    Finally, as the son of parents from the Greatest Generation, I admit I never faced the challenges they endured.  During my 20s, the period was an inconvenience, yet one I do not care to relive in my 70s.  The graphic was taken from the Internet without citation.  The author is unknown but we acknowledge his/her sense of humor.  AND I can relate to it!

    The Fed has indicated Inflation (Stagflation?) is here to stay.  To this individual, this is a scary statement even though it posited as essentially ‘no big deal.’  We will see in a year if it was as big a deal as it was in the 1970s.

    How will You Manage in this Environment?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    Interested in Cross Cultural Engagement or DEI, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.

    For more information on these and others subjects covered in the Critical Mass series contact this author.

  • It’s Not THE Science, It’s THE Data

    It’s Not THE Science, It’s THE Data

    Watching one of the Sunday morning political news shows recently, as yet another pol described that the ‘science is changing‘ and mentioning the results of new data, it dawned on me that smart individuals are conflating science with data.

    By one definition, Science is “he intellectual and practical activity encompassing the systematic study of the structure and behaviour of the physical and natural world through observation and experiment.”  A number of publications suggest that the Scientific Method has been use to study the Coronavirus family of viruses  for decades.  Moreover, this Body of Scientific Knowledge regarding viruses is substantial.  By one account from 2013 (long before the current lemming like behavior), there are over one million virus types of vertebrates of which over 300,000 infect mammals.  This suggests there is a large body of scientific knowledge about virus behavior.

    What is changing over 18+ months is the data captured regarding Covid-19.  Whether diverse data sets from different collection processes is clarifying or obfuscating decision support models is up to interpretation, as it always is in these types of dynamic, evolving situations.

    So, when someone says, “they are following the science” they most likely are not knowledgeable about what they speak.  They are making decisions based on new, as well as the the sum total data set with all of its biases, errors, omissions and agendas that go  with it.  Different positions and responses to the virus is not the result of science changing but further analysis based on emerging data.  ‘The data’ is not nearly as forceful as the science says and the confusion that reigns from this approach is predictable.

    While research processes can change based on new discoveries, DATA analysis is the largest value.  For example, no one talks of new IT science, they talk about new tools and data assessment processes.

    Data Analysis is the key to New knowledge and the Scientific Method supports this Approach, not the other way around.

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.

  • Roadmap to Decision Making In the ‘Smart’ Era

    Roadmap to Decision Making In the ‘Smart’ Era

    “Nothing is more difficult, and therefore more precious, than to be able to decide.”

    — Napoleon Bonaparte

    Volumes have been written on decision-making and this pundit has offered his share of insight and comment on the subject as well.  Some of our comments regard the appropriateness of the human intercession in electronic decision making.  Others raise questions regarding algorithm fallibility.  Moreover, Human Factors must be considered for any technology initiative which are becoming increasingly important.

    If one unpacks the previous paragraph a substantial level of complexity emerges.  As complexity increases so does risk and the need from proper governance.  However, many still see this potential transformation through the lens of just another IT initiative.

    Roadmap

    The oil and gas industry faced a similar dilemma at the dawn of the 21st Century.  At the time, referred to as DOFF or Digital Oilfield of the Future, a plethora of technologies became available.  The task was to transform 100 plus years of traditional operation to what is now referred to as the Digital Oilfield, aka Integrated Operations and a number or synonyms.  While this processes continues to evolve as new solutions emerge, i.e., Cloud, at the time much was trial and error.

    In conjunction with industry leadership, we released our Roadmap to Enterprise Optimization: A Guide to the Impact of Information Driven Field Operations on the Petroleum Corporation in the fall of 2004.  We believe it was the first industry (POSC) supported effort that was not simply research but a ‘bona fide’ action plan or roadmap to success based on industry/other knowledge, standards, economic value and best practices.

    Click for full size Integrated Operations Framework or graphic

    Since then, we have updated this roadmap into an Operational Excellence Platform.  Note that Integrated Operations is a key component.  The platform is a robust detailed solution that is available not just to the energy sector but all sectors identified by Homeland Security as Critical Infrastructure.  These sectors were recently identified as susceptible to hacking by the US government.

    Getting Smart

    Enormous corporate (shareholder) wealth has been destroyed implementing ‘game changing’ technology enabled transformation efforts.  Are we about to do that again, getting smart?  The easy answer is yes, but it does not have to be.

    Roadmap constructs are well understood and provide guidance.  In some models the step by step process provide practitioners with well defined models that can lead to success–defined as on time and under budget performance against Key Performance Indicators (KPIs).

    We are in the process of writing a book, to be released in 2022.  One chapter will define a roadmap for the transformation to ‘Smart’ for a major industrial segment.  As with earlier works, it will focus on the human element aligned with a technology assessment process.

    Get Smart was a comedic TV show spoofing the Cold War ‘spy’ environment of the 1960s.  Getting Smart today may not be a lot different.  The goal under a ‘Cone of Silence‘ was to attain and sustain competitive advantaged achieving superior stakeholder returns.

    Getting smart in 2021 will require a ‘Roadmap to Smart.’  A set of ‘to do’ processes that assures success.

    What is your Organization’s Plan to put Smart Decisioning Making Processes in Place?

     

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.

  • ESG Implementation–Strong v Weak Revisited

    ESG Implementation–Strong v Weak Revisited

    “A healthy corporation acts on the interests of its stakeholders and customers”

    — Ari Melber, Journalist

    Currently, organizations are being implored to implement Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) driven business models.   Proponents even suggest that investment in organizations that do not have this imprimatur should be avoided or even divested.

    However, one wonders what has changed?  Successful firms, private and public have long understood that they must add value to their constituencies.  One example, a few decades ago an energy services provider used its high volume oilfield pumps to help a small town in Kansas where it had a district office drain flood waters.  Why would they do this?  Perhaps because employees lived in this community or perhaps it was just the right thing to do.

    Flash forward and we find organizational largess still in place.  During the recent Texas freeze, a local furniture retailer opened its doors to dispossessed individuals and families.  The owner has a long record of supporting the community and his responses to local disasters is legendary.

    After the Deepwater Horizon incident in April 2010, our firm started to look at Asset Integrity issues in oilfield operations.  Our discoveries transcended several Critical Infrastructure segments.  The recent failure of the Colonial Pipeline is a manifestation of issues uncovered yet not resolved more than a decade ago!

    Focus on Operations

    In 2011, we posited that organizational governance was not just a financial issue at the ‘C’ level.  Rather its true focus should be at the revenue generating asset level.  This led to our 2011 groundbreaking monograph, Asset/Equipment Integrity Governance: Operations–Enterprise Alignment.  Therein, we posited a new governance model that incorporated the ESG components widely discussed today.

    Moreover, in 2014 our book, IMPLEMENTING A CULTURE of SAFETY: A ROADMAP FOR PERFORMANCE BASED COMPLIANCE identified the requirement for organizations in the Critical Infrastructure space to change governance models to one of Strong Bond.

    Following the release of our AIG model, we put forth a Strong v Weak governance model to manage High Reliability Organizations (HRO) necessary for firms in Critical Infrastructure sectors.  Strong Bond is appropriate for organizations in Critical Infrastructure segments, while Weak Bonds may be better for retail.

    One suspects that ESG is another tick in the box.  If ten years (or earlier) from now another critical system fails, it will not be because HRM processes were not followed or ESG verbiage was in the annual report Letter to Shareholders; it will be because nothing really changed.  As of this writing the US Federal government is advising organizations in Critical Infrastructure sectors to more aggressively address cybersecurity risks.

    Why is this? Do Boards and CEOs need politicians and bureaucrats to tell them about the details of running a business?  If they do, investors may want to revisit their portfolios.

    One suspects that the ESG fad will fade. There will always be a new management mantra that consultants will put forth.  Well run organizations will remain well run.  Others not so much.

    Governance models come and go.  Regardless, how will you assure your organization is well run?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.

  • Its the Heart

    Its the Heart

    “A good, quick, small team can beat a big, slow team any time.”

    — Paul William “Bear” Bryant, legendary college football coach

    In the early 1990s my former wife and I, both avid sailors decorated our boat for the local Christmas Boat Lane Parade.  While we had some help, most of the work was performed by the two of us.  That 27 foot sailboat, one of the smallest in the fleet that year won the overall Best In Fleet Grand Prize.  During the presentation, we were asked how many worked decorating the boat which had over 10,000 Christmas tree lights mounted on several three dimensional frames.  At the awards ceremony, when we told them that it was a very small team–this explanation was met with disbelief.

    During World War II, the mathematician, Alan Turing led a small tightly knit team breaking the German Enigma code, saving upwards to several million people.  A dramatization of his team’s challenges were captured in the 2014 movie, The Imitation Game.

    These two very different examples have one thing in common–Coach Bryant’s admonition.  Entrepreneurs such as Steve Jobs, Sir Richard Branson, Elon Musk and others have long argued that one should hire the best people and turn them loose.  Looks like sound advise.  This may be the reason start up firms consistently beat established larger organizations with greater resources.

    Inclusion

    Teams often appear to be cliques.  Much like the kids game where teams are divided up based on favoritism as ‘buddies’ are selected.  Any non-buddy can be effectively excluded since he or she may not be part of the in-crowd.

    In the movie, Turning was initially shunned by both team members as well as his superior.  He did not fit in.  In a large team he may have drifted into the background where his perspectives might not even be heard.  However, as a key ‘different’ member of a small team, his views could not be easily dismissed although they were disagreed with and even hated.  Yet they became part of the discussion and eventually the entire team supported him and ‘now their’ solution saved millions.

    During this period, the Tuskegee Airmen faced even greater challenges.  While some individuals and units may have been forced to accept them, their highly visible contributions could not be denied by those directly benefiting from their inclusion into the air bombardment task force.  Likely, this would not be as conspicuous if they were part of a larger organization.

    Bottom Line

    Not only are small high performance teams usually more successful, they offer all team members a better opportunity to be included in the activity.  This is even more true virtually when it is often difficult to prevent one party from attempting to dominate meetings.  Talking over people and/or raising one’s voice is a tried and true way to bully in a meeting and it is almost impossible to control virtually with a large group.

    Similar to atomic energy, it is not the amalgamation of large quantities of dynamite that makes the biggest bang.  It is the release of the smallest that is the Big Bang!  Harness the power of your team atom.

    What is Your Organization’s Small Team Strategy?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.

  • Point of View

    Point of View

    What Are We Doing?

     

    An interesting sign of the times.  Individuals on social media who identify themselves by name, photo, job (even senior) title, organization etc. are taking controversial positions on a variety of often emotional subjects.  In the old days discussions about , sex, politics and religion were off limits in the corporate environment.  Apparently, not any more.

    If the recent election results are to be believed; 74 million voted for one candidate and 81 million for the other.  So if you are pontificating about one position, you are potentially alienating half of your clients, coworkers, superiors, etc.  What’s the point in doing this?

    Short term high possibly; however, items posted online remain forever.  Seems career limiting for a brief moment of venting.

    New Normal Model?

    First Amendment and all that aside, shouldn’t all of us govern our written feelings?  Writing, so and so is a jerk and I can’t stand him or her maybe a feel good moment.  However, do we do this in real life?  Generally not.

    Like sexting, baring your soul online might not be the best approach.  Tempered, as in the real world is probably a better model.  Most of us filter our response to controversial subjects in a business and even social environments.

    Why is this filter frequently off when we are online?  Some believe there that online presences have a level of anonymity.  Yet there is no evidence this is remotely true.

    Passions of the moment can run deep and after all it is just my opinion and it is my right to express it.  Theoretically this is correct but certain individuals are having accounts closed if the perception by monitors disagrees with their position.  More importantly, the sticky nature of posts may come back to haunt posters.

    Suggestion

    We are all entitled to our opinions and can express them in a number of ways.  The voting booth and political activism are one way.  Our religious affiliation is another and our sexual preferences are accepted these days.  Taking others to task online for their preference seems intolerant and not relevant when one is seeking to advance one’s career using social media.

    Put the older filters back on and reserve judgment for the voting booth, the bedroom and houses of worship.  The cost of venting on these subjects may be quite high and you may never know why you were not promoted, hired, or sales proposal rejected.  Finally, most organizations will have a clause as part of the employment agreement not to use company affiliation the way many are.

    We all have opinions, yet how are you remaining professional online?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.

  • Complicity or Write a Book?

    Complicity or Write a Book?

    I Need a Book Deal!

     

    With the change of the US federal administration, previous key individuals are now coming out and writing books regarding their former boss.  This all the while with plenty of video evidence where these individuals pontificated a position and even changed their position dramatically while in the employ and in seemingly in support of that administration’s policy.

    Now some of the very architects of the US response to the Coronavirus are claiming their innocence all the while blaming others for thousands of deaths.  The nerve.  If true, she is equally responsible and perhaps more since she is a medical doctor.  First do no harm.

    We all have a boss and most need a job; however, when does an individual’s moral compass come to play?  Senior officials who will be gainfully employed doing something else fail to come forward or even resign.  THEN they claim victimhood!  The LOVE of power is so intoxicating.

    Remember, ordinary Germans were widely condemned after World War II for much less personal involvement.

    Credibility?

    Many institutions lack any credulity today.  This is not news and is a widely held view.  Any wonder when so called responsible parties now claim they could have reduced deaths but failed to do so?

    Organizational maleficence often leads to criminal charges and many executives have gone to jail.  If many of the books written after every administration are true, should at least some authors be at least censured for the complicity they themselves are documenting?

    ESG

    We have addressed the issue of governance a number of times.  Most notably in 2011, as part of our Changing the Dialogue monographs, Asset/Equipment Integrity Governance: Operations–Enterprise Alignment (A Case for Board Oversight) addressed the role of operations including environmental and social issues as critical components of the role of organizations.

    As part of the Safety and Environmental Management System tenets, the right for individuals to express themselves without redress is sacrosanct.  Surely, this includes senior officials?  If they can’t or rather seek to write ‘tell all’ books later, governance models are at risk.

    The days of Yes Men (and Women) and Empty Suits are over.  Perhaps, organizations need to clean house.

    How Do You Know Y0ur Advisors are Being Honest with You?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.

  • Post Covid-19 Operational Performance

    Post Covid-19 Operational Performance

    Not the So-Called New Normal

     

    The light at the end of the Covid-19 tunnel may not be the train many still believe.  Populations are being inoculated at very high rates.  Moreover, there is ample evidence in my metropolitan area that the general population no longer believes or adheres to the ‘advice of experts.’  This should surprise no one who understands the US long history of civil disobedience.

    We pundits forecasting the new normal following a traumatic social event always get it wrong and so we will again this time.  There is a simple reason for this–Human Behavioral Economics.  Another leg of the three legged stool is the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) and not all technologies are at the same level or even play well together.  Finally, Organizational Culture must be ready as well.  If these situational settings are not met, the crisis passes and we get back into the comfortable and familiar.

    Following the initial euphoria that we could work from home and not wear pants, many discovered this really was not for them.  Many children did not do as well in a stay at home educational setting and teachers were challenged as well.  Moreover, many tasks require personal engagement.

    Many are Called . . .

    As always winners and losers will emerge and it will take some time for that rank order to solidify.  While digital is important and we have supported that business model for decades, bits will not physically move the barrels.  Still will take heavy industrial technology and processes.

    Using information and other technologies to drive Operations Management Systems are the future.  Not necessarily driven by IT firms but those digital engineers steeped in both disciplines.

    If Organizations are to achieve successful Sustainability, they first need a High Reliability level of Agility and Resiliency.  The only get these attributes when they perform at a high level of Excellence.

    So as we arrive at another new normal, we need to recognize that not everything from the past was bad and not everything we see today is good.  Some processes will be sustained and coupled with newer one.  New Normals do not really destroy the past; we continue to evolve.

    Even innovation from Creative Destruction is not instantaneous.

    How will your organization take advantage of emerging opportunities?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.

  • Open Sesame

    Open Sesame

    A Year of Leadership–Or Not!

    On March 2, 2021 the Governor of Texas announced its 100% reopening–effectively proclaiming an end of the Covid-19 crisis.  Needless to say in our hyper-partisan world, many widely decried the decision and even accused him or bringing physical death to the state population.

    Mississippi announced a similar rollback of virus driven constraints.  Likewise, Connecticut is rapidly easing similar restrictions.  These state join others with loose Covid-19 protocols.  This pundit expects this trend to gain speed quickly and worldwide.

    Meanwhile, the President of the United States accuses these decisions as being made by Neanderthals, while the Director of NIAID position has move from NO mask to wearing MUTIPLE masks.  The political divide regarding the path forward remains wide.

    Consent of the Governed

    “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time,” is attributed to Abraham Lincoln.  This oft quote is usually seen through a political lens.  More importantly, it is a position from a Leader!

    Driven by suspect data we were told that this virus had an Armageddon like quality.  At one point over 2 million Americans were projected to die and the hospital systems would be overwhelmed, perhaps irrevocably.  Hospital ships were mobilized and economies brought to their knees all to save lives.  Perhaps, even our own.

    To be clear, many did succumb and many lives were destroyed or at least changed forever.  We mourn those and recognize the serious of this pathogen.

     

    A few of my family and friends have been infected but fortunately with only minor symptoms and limited hospitalization.  In this we are very fortunate.

    Crises can happen at any time, hurricane, winter storms, hostilities are part of the human conditions.  How we respond it the difference between chaos and inconvenience.  Leadership determines the outcome!

    If you have lost someone to Covid-19, cancer, accident, fire (I lost two family members) or other tragedies, statistical arguments are meaningless as the probability is 100%.  However, for the overall population likelihood of recovering from the coronavirus has always been quite high.

    Many questions have been raised regarding the myriad of conflicting “authoritative” information and misinformation the public has endured for 12 months.  With no conclusive or definitive game plan put forth by authorities, we were left to fend for ourselves.

    A resident of the Houston metropolitan area, this writer has noted that traffic is almost back to normal.  This suggests that the governed no longer have faith in political or medical leadership demanding yet another year under their ‘knowledgeable’ thumb.

    Once that credibility is lost, game over for leaders pontificating that to be safe we must hunker down forever.  Not sure even the Londoners did that during the Blitz.

    The Future is Bright

    Rulers attempt to dictate through a never ending series of edicts.  Knowledgeable governed conduct reasonable due diligence and make there own risk adjusted behavioral decisions.

    Likely, recent events are driven by the political class learning that enough is enough.  After all, we are adults and capable of living our own lives.

    Agree that the pathogen is still with us and we must address it.  Vaccines have a long history of success and processes are in place for safe openings.

    Society is opening with or without the politicians.  Remember the Speakeasies during Prohibition of the 1920s?

    Expect more to run to a microphone and claim leadership.  Ultimately, this process is irrelevant.  Getting out ahead of a parade and claiming to be the Grand Marshal does not make it so.

    Regardless, 2020 is over and there is NO interest in repeating it in 2021.  Message from the governed–we will take our chances going forward!  Our  R B C Framework model at work.

    Covid-19 is not over but seems to be getting to remission thanks to the army of men an women who have risen to the challenge in less than a year and saved countless lives.

    How are you leading your organization to recapture Normal?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.

  • I Didn’t Do It, He Did — I Didn’t Do It Either, Someone Else Did

    I Didn’t Do It, He Did — I Didn’t Do It Either, Someone Else Did

    “When converted into productive thought and action, the energy it takes to blame, shame, and game is enough to launch anyone into heights of real success and happiness.”

     – Charles F Glassman

    Entrée

    It is not often that an entire geographically LARGE state loses power and water simultaneously.  Now we know it can happen!  Welcome to Texas (ERCOT) circa the dawn of the 21st Century.

    The finger pointing and claims, ‘not my responsibility’ surfaced immediately at all political levels.  As I sat in my power free, cold, waterless house, I was moved that political leadership was focused on saving their own hides.

    Benjamin Franklin’s words, “We must all hang together, or, most assuredly, we shall all hang separately” are lost on our hyper partisan world.  Earth to all polls, there is enough blame on this one to go around.  This society loves to Share and Like and is quick to find fault.

    The usual suspects will pontificate about blaming others and legal initiatives have already surfaced.  Good media, but who actually cares?

    This blog post is not about politics or the blame game.  It rather posits a solution that sees that this never happens again–anywhere.

    Operational Excellence Platform

    Excellent performance requires a conscious effort at all levels of an organization and its ecosystem.  We embodied a approach for heavy industry in our 2012 article, High Reliability Management in Process Industries: Sustained by Human Factors.  In that piece we put forth the argument that High Reliability Management is a strong methodology for management large complex systems such as the Texas Electric Power Grid.  HRM provides organizations with Agility, Resiliency and Sustainability in the face of large complex incidents.

    As we have previously put forth, Normal Accident Theory (NAT) posits, “that some accidents are inevitable because of system complexity.”  While logical, this model has its critics and lacks empirical evidence.

    The Texas electricity power grid got into process/technological/engineering trouble rather quickly.  Debate will rage for years as to what actually happened.  However, it seems practitioners at all levels practiced NAT.  Like Deepwater Horizon, this event did not have to happen.

    Safety Culture

    At the core of High Impact Performance is a strong safety culture.

    Systemic Safety Culture as the Core Set of Values and Behavioral Economics of ALL participants of the extended organization and its Enterprise Risk Management strategy that reflect a Strong Bond Governance commitment to behaving as a High Reliability Enterprise Ecosystem in a safe and environmentally responsible manner.

    Going Forward

    The over used phrase, ‘teachable moment’ suggests that we learn from our history so as not to repeat it.  Most likely oxen will be gored, witch hunts abound and the likelihood of little tangible progress will be made.

    Career losses will most like exceed the six board members who have already resigned.  All because the reactive NAT model was followed.  One is well advised not to follow this lead.

    How are you making sure that your operations processes are proactive?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.

     

  • What Is Your Opinion Based On?

    What Is Your Opinion Based On?

    “Without data, you’re just another person with an opinion.”

    ~ W. Edwards Deming

    Data and its use is a very hot topic these days.  Significant controversy exists over decision making regarding Covid-19 strategies and the quality or lack there of the data supporting government policies.  Scientific disagreements and so called ‘academic arguments‘ are appropriate, especially when facing the NEW.  However, the way some data is being used should give us all pause.

    We will learn a lot from this pandemic, one important opportunity is to understand how incomplete and competing data can/must be used in important decision processes.  By definition, every decision is made with incomplete and/or poor quality data.  Moreover, all data is not revealed by traditional data analysis–Latent variables play a major role in any assessment process.

    Opinions Are Like …

    There are a number of ways to complete the above sentence and we will leave that to the reader.  As Deming mentioned, if the data supporting a position is not valid and reliable, it enters the arena of “FAKE.”  According to Accenture, “Fake data is data that is unverified, maliciously tampered with, or just plain wrong.”

    Unfortunately, much of what is passed today, especially on social media might be classified in the fake category.  With no quality assurance, even by institutional resources, positions are advanced as gospel and are often not just wrong but driven by agendas.

    For example, months ago, hydroxychloroquine was vilified by an on air journalist, yet a world leading medical expert posited that it helped.  Presently, the pendulum has swung against this drug.  Questions of the efficacy of the data have been resurrected.

    It is beyond the scope of this piece to address data nuances. Interested parties may find the Public Health Research Guide: Primary & Secondary Data Definitions useful.  Moreover, it is not necessary to become a data expert or data scientist.  The construct, Wisdom of the Crowds suggest that the knowledge and decision of a large group can be better than experts.

    If you have expertise in data, ask this simple question “Is the data reliable and valid?”  Also, follow the wisdom of physicist Richard Feynman, “If it disagrees with experiment, its wrong.”

    With so many claiming to follow The Science, it is important that individuals have a level of understanding about the data that supports The Science.  Sadly, from this physicist’s perspective secondary, unvetted data is often the weak foundation of their positions.

    So, What Are Your Statements Based On?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.

  • Covid-19 Positive: Telemedicine Kicked into High Gear

    Covid-19 Positive: Telemedicine Kicked into High Gear

    Crisis Drives Change

    In 2001 this writer approached the Houston medical community, post tropical storm Allison which flooded many basements in the Houston Medical Center with the loss of experimental data and other records.  We proposed the development of an Internet based solution to hold and manage medical records of all types.  The response to my organization’s offer to digitize records was met with disbelief and ultimate rebuke.

    At the time I was employed by a major corporation with the technology and financial resources to accomplish this task.  Sales Objections included privacy, doctors will not ‘buy in,’ insurance will not pay for it and a host of other lame excuses.

    Flash forward to 2020.  Why are thing so different now and the idea of ‘digitalization’ almost universally accepted?

    Twenty years is a career for many, yet it took a crisis this year to kick the medical sector into action at critical mass—Coronavirus, aka Covid-19.  As often the case large organizations are content to stay with the status quo.  Culture, processes, and even individual bonuses incent lethargy and complacency.  This common trait is not limited to one sector.

    Moreover, advances in online telemetry support the physician’s ability to treat many aliments remotely.  The industry did not just ‘jump’ to the current state, it evolved over time.  For example, remote and inaccessible areas such as Antarctica have taken advantage of telemedicine including remotely directed surgeries.

    Democratization

    We may look back on 2020 as the seminal moment when medicine was digitalized.  Despite current access issues such as we are finding with K-12 education, most will have the ability to interact online in the near future.  Moreover, a number of COTS (commercial off the shelf) health solutions such as found in a variety of Smart phone products enable remote diagnosis and monitoring on a global basis.

    The catalyst for taking telemedicine to the next level is Covid-19!  A good Positive.

    How is your organization taking advantage of remote operational technologies?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.

  • How Dare You!!

    How Dare You!!

    Lessons in Leadership—how dare you put young people in jeopardy for loss of life or failures they will live with the rest of their life?

    As we end Veteran’s Week, we are reminded of President Herbert Hoover’s comment, “Older men declare war.  But it is the youth that must fight and die.”  Hoover was president in the late 1920s and died in 1964.  How many wars has the United States been in since 1930?

    Don’t bother to count—too many.  Probably more to come from political hawks who have never served much less been in combat nor have members of their family.  Not leadership but only positioning for personal gain.

    Disclosure: I have been in the military but not combat.  My father on the other hand was awarded the Silver Star during WW II.

    This piece is not about war or politics, it is about leadership or lack thereof.  After BP Horizon in 2010, this writer attended a conference where a VP responsible for operations from a well-known public oil & gas company admitted that he had never been on an offshore drilling rig but he and his colleagues were making arrangements to visit one soon.

    Dah!  What was he doing for 20 years—home office political parlor games?  Same is true for many Washington Generals/Admirals—check their resumes.

    You’ve Got to Be Kidding Me?  Yet it was true.

    This pundit repeatedly worked on drilling rigs during his 20s.  Begs the question, how can you ‘lead from behind’ when you do not have a clue what your people are dealing with?  How Dare You send young people in an operational grinder you know nothing about?

    Decision making, by definition is made with limited and incomplete data and information.  However, informed decisions are made by those who can put things in context.

    In today’ operationally intense environment, so called ‘ground truth’ is imperative.  Executives owe their employees, contractors and partners their very best and not just organizational politicly correct thinking.

    YOU are responsible for the lives and careers of your team and by extension their families.  There are countless suppliers of training, coaching, and all manner of consulting.  However, bottom line—Lead from the Front!

    The celebrated veterans of this week have blazed your trail.  The US infantry motto, “Follow Me” is not the vision of a desk bound manager espousing leadership consulting mantra.

    Admiral Chester Nimitz is credited with statement, “When you’re in command, command.”  Not the words of a manager but a leader.  I would take his dare.

    But you need to know what you are doing before you send young men and women into harm’s way, whether the military, oil field operation or any critical infrastructure mission or task.

    You owe it to them.  How Dare You if you don’t have the required expertise!  Bonuses don’t mean anything if members of your team are killed.

    Do Your People Respect Your Leadership?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.

  • Linear Metrics in Non-Linear Times?

    Linear Metrics in Non-Linear Times?

    “If it disagrees with experiment, its wrong”

    Our point today is to assess how behavioral decisions are being made today; not about the politics of one candidate or the other.

    The race to the US presidential election has entered its final phase.  As of this writing, establishment wisdom holds the conventional candidate as the presumptive winner.

    Pollical polling is a linear straightforward process albeit with the inherent bias of ‘all’ behavioral instruments.  Effective surveys will take a statistically significant representative sample and project those results to the larger electorate.  A time-honored approach for product marketing as well.

    However, there is another school of thought.  When a new produce/idea is disruptive or not well understood, the firm needs to be proactive rather than simply reactive such as using a survey.  Steve Jobs stated, “You can’t just ask customers what they want and then try to give that to them.  By the time you get it built, they’ll want something new.

    One interpretation, ‘They don’t know what they don’t know.’  Echo the words of Donald Rumsfeld!

    Pollsters suggests that 2016 will not be repeated and they have modified their survey instrument control processes.  Recently one noted canvasser, Frank Luntz stated, “Pollsters did not do a good job in 2016.  So, if Donald Trump surprises people, if Joe Biden had a 5 or 6-point lead, my profession is done.”

    Our Lying Eyes

    When the world was the center of the universe with all the stars and galaxies rotating around us, linear projections confirmed the observed metrics.  However, famously, Nobel laureate, Richard Feynman taught us that, “If it disagrees with experiment, its wrong.”

    Galileo and Kepler among others experimented using the observable data differently.  They discovered that the universe does not revolve around our planet.

    Their assessments altered the given world forever and caused them significant personal angst in the process.  Established ‘science’ did not welcome this change readily.

    If the incumbent rallies and is elected for a second term despite expert projections using legacy linear tools, it maybe time to rethink how social beliefs and behaviors are measured.  Given the problems with Covid-19 data management, the same maybe said for that issue as well

    Hypothesis—Disruption cannot be accurately measured with traditional tools.

    Learnings

    Beyond politics and marketing, there are lessons for all of us.  Artificial Intelligence, Search Engines, Predictive, Big Data Analytics, Machine Learning, IoT et al are now all the rage.  But what if they are using the wrong algorithms?

    There are ramifications for our daily lives.  In March 2019, the Boeing Max 8 was grounded and has yet to return to service.  Will driverless automobiles put us all at risk?

    This survey question maybe answered on November 3 or whenever the final results are tabulated.  Other questions about the use of other metrics will remain unanswered; at least for now.

    How are you certain your decision supports processes and tools are providing valid and reliable data?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.

  • MVP: A Case of Failure

    MVP: A Case of Failure

    Not as Easy as it Seems

    When transforming this website to the Word Press platform, this author accepted the “wisdom” of various online sources and used a so called up and coming new Page Builder.  A huge mistake!

    After many failures and indeed public page lockups, I changed to a more established solution—the one used for this writing.  Over this technological journey, I was told by a number of support individuals to ‘deactivate’ plugins and troubleshoot from there.  While this sounds good on paper (or over chat call out), it does now work well when using this technology to run a business.

    Software Architecture

    According to Wikipedia, “the fundamental structures of a software system and the discipline of creating such structures and systems.  Each structure comprises software elements, relations among them, and properties of both elements and relations.  The architecture of a software system is a metaphor, analogous to the architecture of a building.  It functions as a blueprint for the system and the developing project, laying out the tasks necessary to be executed by the design teams.”

    The proliferation of Apps, Plugins and other products are a concern in any Open Source software development process that depends on a global set of independent development firms and individuals.

    As far back as the 1980s systems integrators decried the use of third-party memory cards in DEC mini systems.  The logic was that these organizations could not assure performance if these products were use.  To some extent they were right; however, in many ways it did not matter.

    However, when it came to service or warranty, It did matter.  If the system crashed because of a third-party product the user was on their own.  Loss of revenue and destruction of reputation remained with the customer and not the technology providers.  This was also my experience in 2020; some 30+ years later!

    These systems are not trivial; they are complex.  For example, the following diagram is taken from AWS Best Practices for Word Press. Does your provider manage to this level?

    Does It Matter Now?

    In an era of turn off your plugins to troubleshoot, I am not sure this doesn’t matter—point made above.  How can one run a business or even a personal ‘fun’ site if this error message appears after an upgrade?

    One fears that in the Open Source era Generally Accepted Practices for software development are not rigorously followed.  Imagine if GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Practices) were not followed?  Oh wait, do I hear Enron, MCI et al?  We all know how that ended.

    So, use a ‘free’ plugin to clean up short code.  Hopefully, the tech selected will refresh when the new ultimately happens and incompatibility will not be an issue.  If this your strategy—Good luck!

    Are You Betting Your Company on this So-Called MVP Model?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    You can contact the author as well.

  • Radar: Technology Game Changer!

    Radar: Technology Game Changer!

    The battle of Leyte Gulf in 1944 with over 200,000 individuals involved is possibly the largest naval battle in history.  Hopefully, one of the last ones.

    In that battle, the submarine USS Darter initially detected (on radar) the Japanese task force early on October 23.  Other US naval vessels spotted that armada shortly thereafter on their radar screens.  This advanced knowledge enabled to US Navy to seize the initiative.  After the battle, the Japanese never stood up an equivalent naval force again.

    Technological advantage can be a game changer.  There is evidence of this phenomenon throughout history.  In this instance, the result was the elimination of the adversary’s ability to recover and reengage in a meaningful way.

    History’s Lessons

    Another game changer from that era was the proximity fuse developed by the Applied Physics Laboratory of Johns Hopkins University.  This technology enabled anti-aircraft rounds to explode within 75 feet of an attacking enemy aircraft instead of requiring physical contact which had a poor track record.  Referred to as, “The real secret weapon of World War II,” it is credited with shorting the war.

    Adversity has always led to rapid technological development.  There are indications that the Covid-19 pandemic is fueling an explosion of new ideas that directly address the infection as well as drive performance when the threat has passed.

    Capturing Value

    The conventional approach is to follow the Technology Adoption Life Cycle.  But is that still the realistic model today?  In our article published in 2004 Calculus of Value Model, we argue that the exact opposite is true.

    Advantage can go to those organizations that deploy technology early and codify knowledge obtained as a result.  The resulting ‘unfair advantage’ can change an industry.

    Previously we have made the case that while the concept of Minimum Viable Product aka MVP; a product that Early Adopters will find satisfactory, “The assessment of such technological solutions needs to be robust and thought through.  Not the knee jerk response often seen.”  Meaning that certain risks must be factored in the Value Proposition, but these can be manageable.

    According to Oracle’s Larry Ellison, “If you do everything that everyone else does in business, you’re going to lose.  The only way to really be ahead, is to ‘be different’.”  So Be Different—Start Early!

    How Can You Make New Technologies Your Organizational Game Changer?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We are presenting, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event!!

    You can contact the author as well.

  • Technology Assessment in the Era of Minimum Viable Product (MVP)

    Technology Assessment in the Era of Minimum Viable Product (MVP)

    App developers have fallen in love with the concept of Minimum Viable Product aka MVP.  Wikipedia defines minimum viable product (MVP) as “a version of a product with just enough features to satisfy early customers and provide feedback for future product development.”

    This development model might make some sense for consumer software or even some business data analytics but how does it work for mission critical software and those apps that allow remote connectivity to those data resources?  MVP is problematic in these cases at best.

    Most mission critical software development organizations understand that robust testing is necessary, yet sometimes the specter of the MVP mentality sneaks its camel nose under the tent.  Think this does not happen?  Think again.

    The Boeing 737 Max 8 is one current example of this phenomena.  One can argue that the costs to this organization, its customers and the flying public have been astronomical and perhaps not measurable.

    Many of us will not be flying any time soon and many months ago this writer has been told by a knowledgeable individual that safe work around for the Max8 software issues have always been readily available—even before the crashes.  There is a more onerous issue that affects everyone on the planet is widely accepted by policy makers.

    We extend the construct of MVP to Minimum Viable Thought.  MVT is defined as, “The version of a decision that the decision makers believe will be accepted by organizational executives and public policy makers.”

    As of publication, this statement is posted on The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington.  “To construct our “Current projection” (the line that shows what we think will most likely happen), we assume that in each location the trend of easing mandates will continue at its current trajectory until the daily death rate reaches a threshold of 8 deaths per million.  If the daily death rate in a location exceeds that threshold, we are assuming that mandates will be reintroduced for a six-week period.”

    We do not dispute modelers making assumptions.  We do that same.  However, this caveat.  Decisions made based modeling assumptions such as these often lead to cataclysmic results.

    The concept of MVP can be a slippery slope.  In an era of rapid software/data release, the risk to the public whether in airplanes or a pandemic can be huge.

    The assessment of such technological solutions needs to be robust and thought through.  Not the knee jerk response often seen.

    How do you assure new technology implementation does not material negatively impact on your business?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

  • Agility, Resiliency, Sustainability

    Agility, Resiliency, Sustainability

    In a recent Harvard Business Review, I was struck by an article about Best Practices for small businesses.  From that piece, “To successfully navigate Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous (VUCA) challenges like Covid-19, family business leaders can look to best practices from another organization that specializes in VUCA situations—the U.S. military’s Special Operations Forces (SOF)” (emphasis added).  There are a lot of good ideas in the article that organizations can implement immediately.  Moreover, we have long recognized that properly vetted and adjusted as necessary, Best Practices from others can add significant value to organizations in other industries.

    Out of the Darkness

    It is easy to be overwhelmed these days.  Mildly put, most if not all organizations were thrown into chaos in less than a month.  Depending on your business you are either partially operating or still waiting to open-up.

    Regardless, how you work in June will be different than early March (~60 days as of this writing).  Traditional recession management and recovery techniques may not be applicable this time.

    There are lots of ideas about how to use technology going forward.  Digitalization, IoT, IT-OT, among others are hawked as THE solution.  Problem is, it is not that simple, and it takes time and money to implement.  Many midsize firms do not have those privileges/resources.

    There are a lot of actions most organizations can take without major CAPEX investments in time and money.

    Years ago, we recognized that certain industrial sectors, particularly those with a high-risk profile such as energy or others deemed to be part of Critical Infrastructures face unique challenges.  Some have a tendency towards incremental change or even the status quo.  Change is often slow with setbacks.

    Moreover, for every major firm there can be thousands of organizations in the supply chain ecosystems all of which must work well if total costs and profitability for all are to be effectively addressed.

    This seemingly daunting task yet it need not be.  There is a solution set available that can help organizations manage through this dark period and into the light, thriving.

    The mission of The Rapid Response Institute is;

    “Helping Clients Achieve Organizational Agility, Resiliency and Sustainability”

    To that end, we have developed solutions, methodologies, and tools enabling enterprises of all sizes to not just survive but thrive after disruptive events.  Much of this is either free or at low cost.

    Rapid Response

    In our 2009 White Paper, Rapid Response Management: Thriving in the New World Order we posited our new approach to managing your business.  “Rapid Response Management (RRM) is an organizational construct or mental model that enables the organization and its key partners to rapidly sense changes and respond accordingly–quickly.  While it maximizes the effectiveness of management knowledge to address change, it is not simply gut feel.  Rather it is a simple yet sophisticated, methodical paradigm any organization can quickly and inexpensively implement.”

    RRM is a creative and well documented method for running your business.  The thinking was well advanced by 2009 and has been further ‘stress tested’ over the past decade.

    We have updated RRM with our Operational Excellence Platform and interested readers are invited to check that out as well.  Our offerings are designed to help our clients get through crises such as Covid-19.

    We are updating this white paper and it will be available as an e-book in the near future.  If you would like to reserve a free copy, Contact us.

    We are here to shed some light during this dark period.  For no cost, no obligation discussion contact us.  We can put decades of experience dealing with business cycle adversity on your team.

    Feel like your trapped?  You’re NOT!

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 on April 9, 2020.  The summit will be offered again soon.  Check it Out!!

    You can contact the author as well.