Readers know that as of this writing there is geopolitical and military tension in eastern Europe. Hopefully, the situation will resolve peacefully.
This piece is not about those politics. Rather it is about the potential for accidental engagement and how that risk can be mitigated.
President Kennedy is famously cited for the comment that referred to the origin of the War to End All Wars, “Perhaps the greatest contribution historians have made to humanity, at least as historians sometimes tell it, came during the Cuban Missile Crisis when Barbara Tuchman’s book, The Guns of August, saved the world from nuclear war. The book is Tuchman’s narrative of the origins of the First World War, an account that, in President John F. Kennedy’s reading, showed how miscalculation and inflexible military planning could force great powers into catastrophic conflicts against their leaders’ wishes.” We might add, against the wishes of the populations that must endure the unbearable cost of stupid interventions. As noted by Herbert Hoover.
“Older men declare war. But it is the youth that must fight and die.”
While the Cuban Missile Crisis worked out well for both parties, including the world in general, it was not necessarily a given. Miscalculations such as the US lack of knowledge regarding nuclear weapons onboard Soviet submarines or the ‘launch’ upon the invasion of the island of Cuba order could have been disastrous.
Misunderstanding during the 1983 military exercise Able Archer is another example of a near nuclear catastrophe. And then there all the Broken Arrows, nuclear weapon incidents (that we know of).
Complex Systems’ Behaviors
This blog series has commented on complex interconnected systems a number of times. The Risk Profile is dramatically increased in such systems. Geopolitical and military systems must be viewed through this lens as well. However, we know complex systems can be properly managed and thus reduce the likelihood of major global impact events.
This process is grounded in High Reliability Management (HRM). Wikipedia defines, “A high reliability organization (HRO) is an organization that has succeeded in avoiding catastrophes in an environment where normal accidents can be expected due to risk factors and complexity.
This author believes that geopolitical and military complex systems can benefit from this model. Given that the cost of these type failures is incalculable they certainty fits HRM profile.
Folly Revisited
In the 1930s Brinksmanship did not end well. Following historical patterns, especially from World War I, Europe plunged into the abyss for the second time in two decades. Miscalculations on the side of multiple parties in both conflicts let to unthinkable destruction and loss of life.
Today’s militaries are much more powerful than ever. Hopefully, from Shakespeare, “Beware the ides of March” does not portend this year.
Geopolitical miscalculations, brinksmanship and other aggressive negotiations can go badly. This is especially the case when adversaries are not in direct and frequent communication with all parties.
Even then cultural differences put discussions at risk. Temperance, communication and though is what saves the world from the unthinkable. Hopefully, cooler heads will continue to prevail during the current crisis.
Cross Cultural Negotiation
The importance of cross cultural understanding cannot be overstated as geopolitics and businesses deal with complex, multi-faceted issues across many nations, ethnicities and cultures. Old international negotiation models are no longer relevant.
Behavioral Economics is foremost today. All parties dealt with are by definition diverse. They are composed of different genders, ethnicities and ages etc. This is a more accurate model that reflects the reality of organizations today.
Also, keep in mind that no nation is homogeneous. Each is composed of separate regions, cities, with local backgrounds, cultures and more. So when one talks about two or more geopolitical entities to be at odds over an issue(s), that model is too simplistic and can lead to greater risks as described earlier.
These are more contributing factors for misunderstanding and miscalculation. Most of us never ‘step in the other’s shoes.’ However, we can recognize the differences in perspectives, behavior and cultures.
Changing the Playing Field
We have often discussed the Relationships, Behaviors and Conditions (RBC) construct among economic actors. The model argues that new Conditions or Situations and Behaviors change the Relationship among parties. This applies at all levels of human interactions from two individuals to many nations. It is applicable here as knowledge to help diffuse difficult situations. For an in-depth review of the model, check the linked blog.
No Guns this Time?
The cascading events following the assassination of the Austrian, Archduke Franz Ferdinand by a small terrorist group is widely believed to have led to the beginning of World War I. The sceptic must put forth, “you have got to be kidding me.” Yet, it did happen.
Our point here is that it does not take much to launch the horrible. How many American doughboys died for that nonsense? It can happen again and most likely will at some point given human nature.
Business Contingency
Geopolitical risk has always been one component of an organization’s risk profile. What will be the impact on your business if the unthinkable happens in Europe again? Other risk mitigation tools include social media.
In 2013 we published ” Mitigating Operational Risk Using the Power of Social Media” that identified a methodology to better understand the beliefs and behaviors of local populations. From the footnoted piece, “Large global enterprises can augment existing security and risk management with the same solutions used by the government entities in the defense sector at commercial price points. The real question is not why, but why not?”
Since that time, there have been significant advances in these capabilities. Other readily available tools can assist as well. Use inexpensive technology to protect global stakeholder interests.
How Robust is Your Firm’s Contingency Plans for Geopolitical Uncertainties?
For More Information
Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials. They are provided for education and entertainment only.
For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game. You can contact this author as well.
Footnote
Kuiper, Marcus A. and Shemwell, Scott M. (2013, February). Mitigating Operational Risk Using the Power of Social Media. Petroleum Africa Magazine. pp. 28-31.