Tag: digitalization

  • Tariffs Tariffs, Tariffs

    Tariffs Tariffs, Tariffs

    According to the economist, Paul Craig Roberts, “Tariffs protect ill-considered government policies, such as costly regulations and high taxes on labor and capital that make our goods uncompetitive in international markets.”

    Young and emerging countries may want tariffs to protect nascent industries and other local protections to help assure employment and rise of a strong commercial base.  Advanced (OECD) countries seek to protect existing sectors for a number of reasons including employment and political/military power.

    Once in place both exporting and importing countries develop a sense of normalcy and change becomes difficult for all parties involved.  They become part of the business culture of the exporter and importer.  As with other cultural change, engrained habits are stubborn.

    Policy Disruption

    The Trump Administration is arguing that an unlevel trading system has existed, at least since the end of World War II in 1945.  Their tariff policy seeks to update the partner relationship with countries and their companies that are no longer rebuilding form that devastating conflict.  The protections afforded nascent rebuilt from that era are no longer necessary or relevant.

    As might be expected, many prefer the status quo and vehemently argue the unfairness of it all and other rationales for not changing practices and policies that are 80 years old.  This is no difference than those that have been made redundant due to a reorganization make the case for their value add, usually in vain.

    Comparative Advantage

    Over two decades ago this author postulated, “Economists usually think of comparative advantage as a function of the raw material or strategic position a country holds.  In the knowledge age, comparative advantage goes to those who hold the knowledge necessary to achieve strategic posture.”  Moreover, “Thought leadership and subsequent comparative/competitive advantage usually goes to those that see things differently, earlier, or both.  Seeing is one thing, believing another, and implementation still another.  Leaders do not just postulate, they make things happen.  This is the tough part.  Many people have good ideas, but most do not implement and even fewer follow through to the end.”

    In May 2025, President Trump signed over $2 Trillion in business deals with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirate.  These were not traditional oil and gas investments that this part of the world is known for, but commitments in defense, aerospace, AI and other advanced technologies.

    In addition to aircraft and other defense products and solutions, these countries focused on the development of emerging capabilities such as AI.  A classic example of the position taken almost a quarter of a century ago.

    Are Humans Being Replaced?

    This has been the question raised by every dramatic technological introduction.  The general consensus, in this writer’s opinion is, we adapt and adopt to the new when it is beneficial and reject it when it does not add value to our personal life–the ‘What’s in it for ME question.

    This is the contemporary question all of us are reacting to with the advent of Artificial Intelligence.  Accordingly, “The rise of artificial intelligence has reinforced the belief that transformations across various domains can be primarily achieved through digital technology.  However, the creative potential for change of people’s  cognitive, emotional and imaginative powers often loses importance and gives way to  creative technology.   Many therefore see humans as having arrived in the age of post and transhumanism.  But is the human being as such really a kind of obsolete model?  According to such a view, it seems to have become ‘normal’ for people to leave their own fate, as well as the fate of humanity and the environment, to technical transformation possibilities.  This implies accepting that technology increasingly becomes an instrument of control rather than a tool to be used and directed, as individuals become subject to a technology and capitalist artificial intelligence industry that surpasses their own capabilities, leading them to be controlled by it.”

    One can assume that these concerns will cause many to fight for existing international trade rules to remain in place.  This is true, not only for tariffs, readers may remember that in 2024, “The ILA’s ( International Longshoremen’s Association) initial proposal was for a 77% salary increase over the six-year duration of their contract with USMX, as well as a complete ban on the automation of gates, cranes and container-moving trucks at its ports.”

    Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain

    Cultural Disruption can be sharp and quick, like a knife cutting into the skin.  It will take some time and perhaps a long time for transformation to take hold, and wounds to heal.

    However, this parade is marching by.  We can all chose to join in, become a bandleader, or hope it will just go away.  Change can be painful, but without it we cease to grow and will eventually whither and our value to organizations will no longer exist.

    Get with the program!  Tariffs were never meant to be generational, but only a short-term economic band aid.

    How are you and your loved ones preparing for ongoing technological convulsions?

     

    Pre order our new book, May 23, 2025

    Navigating the Data Minefields:

    Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making

    We are living in an era of data and software exponential growth.  A substantive flood hitting us every day.  Geek heaven!  But what if information technology is not your cup of tea and you may even have your kids help with your smart devices?  This may not be a problem at home; however, what if your job depends on Big Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI)?

    Preorder May 23, 2025

    We are also pleased to advise our loyal readers that CRC Press has accepted our proposal for this forthcoming book, Nonlinear Big Data and AI-Enabled Problem-Solving: Transforming From A Spreadsheet Society.  Publication 2026.  Stay tuned for more details.

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is the coauthor of the 2023 book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be released by CRC Press in June 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross-Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg and his book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • Who Owns the Intellectual Property Generated by AI?

    Who Owns the Intellectual Property Generated by AI?

    Disclaimer:  The author is not an attorney, and this document is not meant to be a legal opinion in any sense.  Interested readers should contact their legal counsel for any Intellectual Property (IP) determination.  This blog simply raises a question that is generally not addressed regarding ownership rights of the content and products developed using artificial intelligence emerging technologies.  One suspects that going forward, this issue will become more forefront.

    Moreover, this is a fast-moving environment with new local laws and promulgated regulations continuously updated.  Readers are cautioned that some of the materials herein may be quickly dated.  Appropriate legal counsel and other experts should be consulted.

    Like most new software technologies, there is a period of the Wild West where anything seems to go.  Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been no different, but now these horses are beginning to be reined in.

    It is generally accepted that the ownership of content developed using third party software belongs to the generator of said content.  Data, the results of analytics and their interpretation, computer generated audio video materials, etc. are generally covered by this convention and codified by law.  The spreadsheet vendor does not own the financial analysis that leads to major value add to the firm.  Conversely, if the financial model is flawed, the software developer is generally not liable.

    However, Artificial Intelligence is a different technology model.  It dictates that organizational AI policies recognize the disruptive change caused.  For example, the publisher of my new book, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making has issued its author, AI Policy.

    An AI engine searches for data and information from a wide variety of sources.  It then amalgamates and analyzes and/or develops what some consider a new product or solution–document, image, or new approach/model, e.g. medical technique.  However, did the AI secure permission from the data owner(s) or even cite its source(s)?  The most likely answer is no.  A follow-on statement might be, “why do we need that?”

    Copyright

    According to the U.S. Copyright Office, Copyright is a type of intellectual property that protects original works of authorship as soon as an author fixes the work in a tangible form of expression.  In copyright law, there are a lot of different types of works, including paintings, photographs, illustrations, musical compositions, sound recordings, computer programs, books, poems, blog posts, movies, architectural works, plays, and so much more!”  The Copyright Office goes on to state, “Works are original when they are independently created by a human author and have a minimal degree of creativity.”
     
    In the UK, “Two conflicting views emerged.  The tech sector believes the copyright to AI-generated content should belong to users, whereas the creative sector wants this content to be excluded from ownership completely.”
     
    From a 2022 Reuters article about a lawsuit over, Gen AI generated content.
    “Accordingly, unless a generative AI is used in such a manner that its output would be recognizably linked to some person or entity who is likely to actively police the use of their works and whose works are likely to be registered, the risk of the generative AI’s users being sued for infringement seems low.
     
    In practice, the legal issues surrounding generative AI mean that its outputs should be handled in a manner similar to materials covered by open source or creative commons licenses — i.e., with policies and procedures which ensure use only in appropriate manners and cases.  This includes determining if a project where generative AI would be used is something whose results would need to be protected and, if so, determining whether tools are available for that protection other than copyright.
     
    It also includes avoiding high risk uses, such as using generative AI to attempt to replicate the work of a particular artist whose materials were used as training data. However, with intentionality and forethought, the risks associated with generative AI can be managed, and this new technology can bring tremendous benefits to those who deploy it intelligently.
     
    Later, we will address two other types of Intellectual Property, Patents and Trademarks.  Both have a lengthy pedigree as well that must be considered in our new AI era.
     

    Data Privacy

    Data privacy and security are major issues organizations must deal with, and the regulatory burden is onerous.  Most readers have heard of HIPPA; the need to keep individual medical records confidential.  HIPPA is symptomatic of the need to treat ALL data in secure and private.

    From the GDPR, “The General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) is the toughest privacy and security law in the world.  Though it was drafted and passed by the European Union (EU), it imposes obligations onto organizations anywhere, so long as they target or collect data related to people in the EU.  The regulation was put into effect on May 25, 2018.   The GDPR will levy harsh fines against those who violate its privacy and security standards, with penalties reaching into the tens of millions of euros.”

    The EU regulations are viewed as the ‘gold standard’ and others worldwide are in the process of emulating them.  Increased date management regulations are a given, as is their impact on AI learning.

    IP Guardrails

    Individuals and organizations jealously guard their intellectual properties, as they should.  Just think of the significant value Disney has built over 100 years from a cartoon mouse.

    Some may see AI as an assault on the organization’s core and take legal action they believe appropriate.  Others will try to capitalize on loopholes.  This is not different behavior from the IP current practice.

    AI advocates will find themselves in the midst of what could be a significant number of legal challenges as the technology and its regulation matures.  The current long-standing legal battles over social media platforms is but one example of this process.

    IP Ownership of AI Generated Content: The Movie

    Summary of the Video

    Briefly, in the video dated January 7, 2024, the attorney makes the following key points:

    • Copyright extends only to humans and AI content generated by products such as ChatGPT do not meet the ‘human’ authorship test.  However, if a human is actively engaged in the development of (and change) said content, things get less clear.
    •  Regarding AI generated inventions, Patent law becomes more relevant.  The speaker argues that ‘at least today’ patent laws mirror copyright because human creativity is key.
    • As far as AI generated Trademarks are concerned, these products such as logos, tag lines, etc. do not enjoy original authorship protection, but their ‘first use’ has precedence.  For more information he references the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO).
    • Finally, he states that this area of the law is unfolding, and change is likely.

    These points were transcribed by this pundit.  As such, they are only his perception and must be viewed skeptically when addressing a specific ‘real’ question regarding this subject matter.  The attorney’s fifth bullet is probably the most important one.

    Final Thoughts

    Intellectual Property ownership is an area that technologists and software developers are generally not involved with.  Additionally, many have historically treated the content found online as if it is in the public domain.  We now know that authorship should be attributed.

    For most of the things individuals and organizations do with online content this is not an issue.  Blogs, political opinion and technology critique among others come to mind.

    However, AI has the potential to change fortunes (wealth, reputation and other) of individuals and organizations.  Finally, the regulatory environment is evolving, and dramatic changes are most likely forthcoming.

    Individual creators, management and others have a responsibility to assure AI developed content meets, and not just the regulations (in each jurisdiction the firm operates in).  Moreover, governance enforcement models must add AI technologies and assure that others are not infringing on the firm’s IP with potential risks of capital and reputational loss.

    One Last Thing

    With the need to protect data as well as assure all key intellectual property is protected, will this negatively impact on the output of AI models?  What will be the basis of gen AI training if it cannot gain access to the universe of data they require?  And yes, I know we often sign away certain rights when we engage with some organizations, but we can ‘opt out’ of allowing access to our data.

    Another Blog for a later time but in the meantime, just a question.

    How is your organization addressing these and other Intellectual Property issues emerging from Gen AI and other content developers?

    Pre order our new book

    Navigating the Data Minefields:

    Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making

    We are living in an era of data and software exponential growth.  A substantive flood hitting us every day.  Geek heaven!  But what if information technology is not your cup of tea and you may even have your kids help with your smart devices?  This may not be a problem at home; however, what if you job depends on Big Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI)?

    Available April 2025

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is the coauthor of the recently published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be published by CRC Press in 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross-Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg and his book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • The Crisis/Challenge of AI in 2025

    The Crisis/Challenge of AI in 2025

    “Many processes are repeatable and only data inputs change.”

                                                                                                         — Scott Shemwell, 2023.

    Technology disruption has been with humankind since the first invention.  We get used to one model and suddenly, a new way supplants the old.  Much has been written about the innovation process, and it is not the focus of this Blog to regurgitate the obvious.

    However, Wikipedia states, “Beyond business and economics disruptive innovations can also be considered to disrupt complex systems, including economic and business-related aspects.  Through identifying and analyzing systems for possible points of intervention, one can then design changes focused on disruptive interventions.”  This is the broader focus of this piece.

    Human Redundancy?

    One if the ongoing concerns, “will AI replace humans?”  As of this writing, many do not believe it will, at least anytime soon.  Interestingly, according to Harvard professor Karim Lakhani, “Just as the internet has drastically lowered the cost of information transmission, AI will lower the cost of cognition.”  This is consistent with the traditional path of Information Technology innovation.

    Moreover, this concern is not new.  In her 1983 paper, Ironies of Automation, Lisanne Bainbridge posited that there are inherent problems with automating workflow, humans are still required for tasks that are not easily (if at all) automated.  Oversight of automation requires more training in new job skills, not less.  More recently, the former Chief Scientist of the US Air Force points out the “Original Ironies of Automation is highly relevant with regards to today’s new wave of AI-enhanced automation.  Near misses and incidents involving human automation operations often arise from a mismatch between the properties of the system as a whole and the characteristics of human information processing.”

    In our forthcoming book we address the need for Strong Oversight coupled with Standardization and Risk Tolerance to address the broader need for upskilling today.  According to McKinsey, “Any engineering talent rethink needs to begin with an understanding of how gen AI will affect the product development life cycle.”

    Paraphrasing Mark Twain, “The rumors of Human demise are greatly exaggerated.”  AI is here to stay and should be embraced with cautionary guardrails as it is still immature and subject to error.

    Human Factors

    One pundit refers to the ‘Human Edge‘ as the competitive Advantage we have over machines.  This pundit has long been an advocate for Human Factors when it comes to managing technology, especially emerging technology used for process or production management.  The risk profile otherwise is just to0 steep and high.  One only has to look at the recent travails of the once venerable firm, Boeing.

    2025 and Beyond

    Artificial Technology, its future derivative products and solutions not yet envisioned will continue.  Most likely at the breakneck speed or faster of today.  Remember when we used to think of the Internet growth in terms of Dog YearsInsect Years may be the new metric.

    Many, including this writer as documented in our book, believe AI et al is just entering the explosive growth on the maturation curve.  We must live with it and the most successful will get ‘on board’ when the timing is right for them.

    Exciting times lie before us all and it is a great time to be alive, at least from a technology perspective.

    How are you, your family and work colleagues prepared for the future?

    Pre order our new book

    Navigating the Data Minefields:

    Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making

    We are living in an era of data and software exponential growth.  A substantive flood hitting us every day.  Geek heaven!  But what if information technology is not your cup of tea and you may even have your kids help with your smart devices?  This may not be a problem at home; however, what if you job depends on Big Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI)?

    Available April 2025

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the recently published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be published by CRC Press in 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross-Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg and his book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • DOGE’d

    DOGE’d

    The Day the Congress Stood Still

    On December 18, 2024, Elon Musk delivered on the social media site, 𝕏  the death knell of a 1500+ page so called Continuing Resolution that was to stave off a Federal Government shutdown.  Later it was replaced with a much shorter (100+ page) bill that passed largely intact.

    This Out-of-the-Gate action by the Non-Government Organization (NGO), DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) may foretell the next 18+ months of DOGE’s self-imposed life ending July 4, 2026.  This first Musk assessment revealed extensive and massive political pork earmarked spending.

    The Congress and all manner of hired bureaucrats may face increased public scrutiny, posted for all to see.  Who knows, the idea may expand to all levels of government and their hired hands.

    Creative Destruction

    Previously, we discussed this economic substitution model“The economist Joseph Schumpeter was the first to coin the term creative destruction–the destruction of old markets and those active in them through innovation, & inventing of new markets, this can be new technologies, methods, business models, services, or products.”  One can argue that the creative destruction cycle time is very short today.

    And perhaps getting even shorter!

    Gort or Grok?

    In the original (1951) movie, The Day the Earth Stood Still, the robot Gort has the ability to destroy the world.  It is prevented from doing so by the utterance (by a human) of the key words, “Klaatu barada nikto.”

    According to 𝕏, the Artificial Intelligence (AI) robot of today, Grok (formally defined as “to understand something”) “leverages the 𝕏 platform to understand what’s happening in the world in real time. We recently launched two additional features to enhance this experience even further: web search and citations.  Now Grok draws upon posts from 𝕏 and webpages from the broader internet to provide timely and accurate answers to your queries.  We also added citations, so you can easily dive deeper into a source to learn more or verify the information provided by Grok.”

    Fortunately, three simple words neutralized Gort, and the earth was saved.  Grok will not so easily be rendered impotent, unless the First Amendment is repealed.

    The government world has been (figurately) creatively destroyed and changed forever.  Moreover, in their world of consistent suboptimal performance, most have no idea what has already happened to their cherished long-standing bureaucratic processes.

    The Regulatory Public Comment period will never be the same.

    After DOGE

    It appears that Musk has put in place an AI solution that will live on after the formal closure of DOGE in 2026.  Grok and other emerging AI tools can continue to review and assess each and every piece of proposed legislation and other government edicts regardless of length and/or complexity.

    Like Hacking, those opposed to honesty will seek ways to thwart AI.  Those providing transparency solutions will need to stay one step ahead, just like law enforcement agencies that are required to enforce and uphold the law.  If accepted social behaviors norms are to prevail, transparency is demanded.

    Finally, we can “read the bill to find out what is in it.”  Prior to voting!

    This Accountability Sucks!

    Well, get over it!  One suspects entrenched vested interests will try to find ways around this revolution, but likely to no avail.  There is not only a new sheriff in town, even after he leaves, the new accountability will remain.

    And so much for the current media business model whereby either a single individual or small group amalgamates society’s daily activities and present the proletariat with their (often agenda driven/opinionated/biased) version of THE NEWS.

    How will you take advantage of the AI delivery of information?

    Pre order our new book

    Navigating the Data Minefields:

    Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making

    We are living in an era of data and software exponential growth.  A substantive flood hitting us every day.  Geek heaven!  But what if information technology is not your cup of tea and you may even have your kids help with your smart devices?  This may not be a problem at home; however, what if you job depends on Big Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI)?

    Available April 2025

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the recently published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be published by CRC Press in 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross-Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg and his book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • The Transformation of Our Spreadsheet Society

    The Transformation of Our Spreadsheet Society


    “The only rules are the ones dictated by the laws of physics.  Everything else is a recommendation.”  — Walter Isaacson/Elon Musk


    We live in a spreadsheet society.  Columns of Categories of People and Rows of Wants, Needs, and Desires.  This model is too simplistic.  What is needed, and Big Data can provide, is a more sophisticated approach.

    This spreadsheet approach was shown in the recent US elections to be detrimental to the party mainly depending on this view of society.  How many times did we hear pollsters opine that X percent of a certain population was voting for one candidate vs. the other?  The categories of people were divided along traditional lines.  This whole model was shattered on November 2, 2024, and likely some providers of data in this format may no longer be in business for the next cycle.

    However, this belief system is not limited to the political class.  We all can fall into this stereotype.

    For decades we have been taught that data categories can be captured under a Normal Distribution (Bell) Curve of a category and row of interest, i.e., the distribution of the height of a class of male senior high school students or SAT scores.  Another more relevant example, retailers’ pertinacious obsession with the 18–34-year-old group.

    These are fairly simple models, and in this Blogger’s opinion, this representation rarely works anymore, if it ever did.  For example, the resulting retail sector inventory overages as a result of dependencies on this gross data model are not an effective return on shareholder value.  Other recent missteps based on faulty interpretation of the customer/prospect base include the Bud Lite advertising fiasco and the Target marketing failure.

    It is ok to make marketing mistakes, that is going to happen.  The problem with these two (and other) campaigns is the analysis of risk, return, etc. was likely shallow or mathematically primitive.

    There are ways to appeal to new consumers without alienating a large existing base.  It’s all in the big numbers.

    There are several validated models of human behavior and we will discuss two of them herein, Maslow’s Hierarchy and the Relationships, Behaviors, Conditions model.  Some readers may prefer others, and they will most likely work within this construct as well.

    Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs

    This perspective on human needs and subsequent behaviors dates back to the 1940s.  As shown, it consists of five steps from survival to the ultimate Self Actualization.  Note that we adapt this model in two ways.  First, we view this as a growth process as opposed to five discrete steps.  Additionally, the bottom two lower ranges focus mostly on the physical issues we all face.  Fundamental survival and security both physically, mentally, emotionally and spiritually.  Once we have attained, sustained, and believe, we are ready to transition towards an end game, “the realization or fulfillment of one’s talents and potentialities, especially considered as a drive or need present in everyone.”

    Next, we will discuss how we can use this and the RBC solutions to realize specific and measurable value that changes this dynamic.

    The color gradient is meant to reflect that this journey is a process and often each field begins slowly before accelerating into the next range.

    Another perspective of each the Five Platforms consists of a number of smaller steps, which when assessed using Integral Calculus, generates a continuum.

    Relationships, Behaviors, and Conditions (RBC)

    The following is taken from our Cross-Cultural Online Game site:

    The RELATIONSHIPSBEHAVIORS, and CONDITIONS (RBC) model was originally developed to address issues around cross cultural (international) negotiation processes.   As shown in the figure, Relationships are the focal point of this perspective, reflecting commonality of interest, balance of power and trust as well as intensity of expressed conflict.  Behaviors in this model is defined as a broad term including multi-dimensions and intentional as well as unintentional.  Finally, Conditions are defined as active and including circumstances, capabilities and skills of the parties, culture, and the environment.  Of course, Time is a variable in this model as well.

    Moreover, we have defined Behavioral Economics as “the decision-making model that incorporates societal, cultural, emotions and other human biases into the process as opposed to the classic rational economic actor.

    One key feature of the R B C Framework is its emphasis on interactive relationships while providing an environment for multiple levels of behavioral analysis.   This makes it a useful tool to better understand the new Big Data/AI processes currently unfolding.

    The following graphic is a derivative of our Cross-Cultural Interactions model.  It is a peer reviewed model and is a very good way to calibrate interactions.  Additional information is available on the above link.

    This author has long believed that we do not live in a linear or mathematically deterministic world.  A strong belief in stochastic, matrices drive much of my thinking.  This is reflected in the figure on the left.  The RBC model is the foundation for the five parties and their collective Behaviors.  The resulting Relationships range from one-on-one to small groups or in some cases a wide and varied constituency.

    Note that there is an Ecosystem, (something, such as a network of businesses, considered to resemble an ecological ecosystem especially because of its complex interdependent parts) associated with each entity other that the individuals’ who are the other four.

    This is a wide array of influences on any given individual.  Not easily measured, linearly!

    Scientific Method

    Most readers are familiar with how science has been brought into bolster the position of pundits/advocates of policy, especially related to Covid-19.  The word is tossed around casually, as if most who use it know what they are talking about.  Spoiler Alert–Most Do Not! This includes some with advanced technical or medical bona fides.

    Most think that by using the word ‘science’ this assessment process is out of their wheelhouse.  Previously, we argued that there is a layperson’s approach that works fine for most of our daily needs.  Details can be found on our Blog, They Blinded Me with Science.

    For space reasons, this (guidelines) model will not be repeated here but check it out, it is a short read.

    The late Nobel Laureate, Richard Feynman has a brief and layperson-oriented presentation on the Scientific Method.  He is an excellent teacher, and this clip is informative as well as entertaining.

     “If it disagrees with experiment, its wrong”—Richard Feynman

    Human Input Still Needed

    To be clear, pollsters and marketers will still need to ask questions that will also help structure the model, but the processes posited herein can change the weighting processes driving toward equilibrium and Pareto Optimality (Pareto efficiency implies that resources are allocated in the most economically efficient manner but does not imply equality or fairness) in the final analysis.  In other words, higher quality results.

    These numbers can also be seen as ‘first value’ in a simulation.  Another way to look at this is to the logic the Turing (Bombe) Machine of World War II.  Not setting a number as itself.

    Then AI can take the model to the next level and provide pollsters/marketers with real, modern solutions.  Finally, other uses will most likely be derivatives of this solution.

    The Data Management Problem

    We have identified a general problem as well as three valid and reliable theories.  This is only a nice discussion without relevance with Valid, Reliable, and Timely (VRT) data.  Data Management has been a problem as long as there has been data, stone, paper or electronic.  It has always been an issue.  “Herman Hollerith is given credit for adapting the punch cards used for weaving looms to act as the memory for a mechanical tabulating machine, in 1890.”  Much later (circa 1950s) digital database management schemas emerged.  Today, we are flooded by data of all types including telemetry and deliberately false data/information.

    How can this be effectively managed and how can an executive without a technology background survive much less thrive in such an environment?

    For decades, this author has been involved in almost all computer system development from the yellow punch tape of the 1960s until today.  There have been several constants over that period.

    One of the biggest chronic challenges has been database management; from the acquisition of data through its life cycle until achieve.  An outcome of poor data management has been decisions that have even led to the demise of firms, along with tens of thousands (if not more) of suboptimal decisions at the expense of shareholder value (bottom line/stock price).  What makes the current crop of Big Data/Artificial Intelligence advocates any smarter than those who came before?  Nothing!  Unless some things are changed.

    Our forthcoming book to be published by CRC Press in 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).  The following and other managerial action items are developed in detail.

    • How to determine the quality of the data and its relevance to the decision-making processes.
    • Current Challenges and Trends in Big Data and associated applications.
    • Proposed organization structure such as High Reliability Organization and an understanding of Human Factors to fully realize the full and measurable economic value from these technologies.
    • A full set of Risk Mitigation and a Governance model including Disaster Recovery and Cyber Security.
    • How these technologies are used in Operations, a proposed Management System as well as numerous Case Studies across a number of industries and types of problems.

    The challenge of managing this suite of emerging AI/Big Data is daunting and one that cannot be dodged or delegated.  How organizations respond can be the difference between success or the destruction of shareholder value.

    It’s The Data Stupid

    Our pollsters are collecting and analyzing data that are self-reported.

    • A questionnaire is developed which may or may not reflect bias.
    • These questions are posed to potential respondents (phone and otherwise) who may detect a voice tone, and/or the subject may intentionally lie or mislead.
    • Finally, who answers the phone these days?  This skews the data sample and perhaps badly.

    Data collected in this manner is not subject to rigor and most likely wrong or skewed.  Finally, data collected in this manner is not suitable for the new Big Data Analytic models.

    One Proposed Better Way

    There are probably several much better ways to address political and marketing problems.  While no data source is perfect, we posit the following way to use the US Census data.  We can treat it as a function of columns and rows yet apply sophistical data analysis algorithms.

    Categories

    As mentioned, we tend to clump or stereotype individuals into preconceived ‘buckets.’  Over time, these buckets have taken on an aura of, it’s the only way.  Basically, the construct that ‘we have always done it this way.’
     
    This is no longer a viable business or social model.  Our world is much too dynamic for the older static approach to targeting the likelihood of a specific demographic to perform in a preconceived prescriptive manner.
     
    One place to start looking is at the United States Census data.  This data set consists of 57 profiles, The United States and each State and Territory.  Each Profile is divided into several Sub-Categories, Populations and People, Income and Poverty, Education, Employment, Housing, Health, Business and Economy, Race and Ethnicity, and Nearby States.  Each Sub-Category is further detailed.
     
    We might even call the data in these Categories/Sub-Categories, Conditions from the RBC model.  Each Platform in Maslow’s Hierarchy can be considered a Category with infinite Sub-Categories.  Likewise, Conditions.

    Rows

    We have identified the following three variable model as representative of human Behaviors–Wants, Needs, and Desires.  We have previously reviewed some of this in our Blog, Want – Like – Need  in 2019.  These can also be mapped to Behaviors in both the RBC and Maslow models.
     
    Details and a short list of some variables follow.  These definitions can overlap, and readers will note that there is some duplication across all three classes below.  Researchers use different definitions for each class.  This does not detract from the fundamentals of Rows selected for analysis.  
    The point is to develop a list of behaviors that is indicative of the problem to be solved.

    Wants

    For purposes of this model, we define Want as something that an individual might seek as part of normal life, i.e., and ice cream cone.

    Needs

    Those fundamentals of life, especially as defined in Maslow’s Hierarchy, platforms one and two.

    Desires

    Different from Wants, Desires are perhaps beyond his/her reach.  Coveting a promotion and willing to back stab co-workers to get it rather than compete on merit.

    Sources of Wants, Needs, and Desires

    We have suggested that a starting point for Categories is the very large US Census database.  No such singular source exists for these behaviors and there is an overlap in definitions.  This list gives readers a starting point.  In no particular order, this non-comprehensive includes:

    The list goes on, but readers get the point.  A large row of behaviors will help develop a robust model.

    And The Answer Is

    While we know that the solution to the political pollster and/or marketing manager is not a definitive answer, we can do better than we are.  We know how to management data in this environment and we have models for assessing and making decisions based on results.  As we move from simple, small data set, linear models to robust Big Data Analysis, we need to consider a few additional action items.

    Scientific Method

    Do not forget to use this methodology to define and refine your problem statement.

    Model Limits

    • While we are using a significant number of independent and dependent variables, we are not trying to solve world hunger.  Therefore, we need to put limits on (Bound) the model.  This is an age-old problem we first addressed in 2015, Bounding the Boundless.
    • From a scientific perspective, “Across all science, modelling is our most powerful tool, as models let us focus on the few details that matter most, leaving many others aside.  Models also help reveal the typically far-from-intuitive consequences when multiple causal factors act in combination.”
    • Additionally, “Getting AI/ML/DL systems to work has been one of the biggest leaps in technology in recent years, but understanding how to control and optimize them as they adapt isn’t nearly as far along.  These systems are generally opaque if a problem develops in the field.  There is little or no visibility into how algorithms are utilized, or how weights that determine their behavior will change with a particular use case or interactions with other technology.”
    • Moreover, “the European Union this week (2021) issued guidelines for AI — specifically including ML and automated decision-making systems — limiting the ability of these systems to act autonomously, requiring ‘secure and reliable systems software,’ and requiring mechanisms for ensuring responsibility and accountability for AI systems and their outcomes.”

    Diminishing Returns

    Since we are not boiling the ocean, at some point continuing with the model will result reduced performance.  According to Economists, “The law of diminishing returns says that, if you keep increasing one factor in the production of goods (such as your workforce) while keeping all other factors the same, you’ll reach a point beyond which additional increases will result in a progressive decline in output.  In other words, there’s a point when adding more inputs will begin to hamper the production process.”

    “Data is just a way of codifying information. Any data gathered should be relevant to a problem, otherwise useless data clouds the results of a query.  If there are too many degrees of freedom, you are begging for a spurious correlation.”

    Readers may be familiar with, “The Pareto Principle, also known as the 80-20 rule, is a concept that many have adopted for their life and time management.  It is the idea that 20% of the effort, or input, leads to 80% of the results or output.  The point of this principle is to recognize that most things in life are not distributed evenly.”  This may be a satisfactory approach to this application.
     

    Need for a Data Scientist

    This approach may require the use of a professional data scientist to realize a valid and reliable outcome.  “A data scientist is an analytics professional who is responsible for collecting, analyzing and interpreting data to help drive decision-making in an organization.  The data scientist role combines elements of several traditional and technical jobs, including mathematician, scientist, statistician and computer programmer.  It involves the use of advanced analytics techniques, such as machine learning and predictive modeling, along with the application of scientific principles.  As part of data science initiatives, data scientists often must work with large amounts of data to develop and test hypotheses, make inferences and analyze things such as customer and market trends, financial risks, cybersecurity threats, stock trades, equipment maintenance needs and medical conditions.”

    More

    This is not a definitive list and is provided to give readers an understanding of what it will take to move forward with the Big Data Analysis model.  Appropriate research and problem definition may reveal additional or fewer requirements.

    Demise of Linear

    The Linear broadcast approach to selling or changing minds is not the relevant delivery vehicle for new micro-data analysis.  Directed notifications is better although practice this with care.  This last election cycle, I received a text, words to the effect, “can we count of your vote for X?”  I was very much against X and no reason was offered to help me change my mind.  Get with the program and don’t be so lazy developing your spiel or message.

    Elon Musk’s ‘Algorithm’

    This is an interesting approach to problem solving that can have relevance to the issue discussed herein.  Can we reduce complexity without losing data fidelity, “The accuracy, completeness, consistency, and timeliness of data.  In other words, it’s the degree to which data can be trusted to be accurate and reliable.”

    His Five Step Process:

    1. Question Every Requirement

    2. Delete Any Part or Process You Can

    3. Simplify and Optimize

    4. Accelerate Cycle Time

    5. Automate

    Readers may ask, how does this fit in this discussion?  We bring this to your attention because it may help identify and bound the problem to be solved.

    Also, perhaps of some value is his, “idiot index, which calculated how much more costly a finished product was than the cost of its basic materials.  If a product had a high idiot index, its cost could be reduced significantly by devising more efficient manufacturing techniques.”  A survey, analysis, etc. are all products and may benefit from this index model.

    Final Thoughts

    Most financial professionals will tell you that spreadsheets must foot (the sum of all rows must equal the sum of all columns).  Can societies or multiple societies foot their columns and rows?  Most likely not and if that is the case, data from this model is not valid or reliable.

    Most likely, this type of data will take the form of a Scatter Diagram (without correlation?) with some clumps or areas of intensity of a specific category or group of categories.

    This may not be an approach that many will take; however, it is clear that the original premise of this piece, that we live in a spreadsheet society is no longer appropriate.  “If you always do what you always did, you will always get what you always got.” ― Albert Einstein.  It will be interesting to see how future polling is conducted.

    Non-Linear Speed Ahead

    Sometimes pieces like this summarize a conclusion.  In the high-pressure environment, we are not concluding anything.  We are carving a way forward–A Growth Model of the Data Economy.

    As of this writing the incoming US administration appears to be moving at hyper speed across a broad front.  Moreover, AI in particular exploding.  Those interested in keeping up may want to to Subscribe | Generative’s AI Newsletter (not an endorsement but seems be a good daily source of information).  Mostly, just keeping up will not be enough, if top quartile success is the goal.

    It will be interesting to see the role the family of Artificial Intelligence (AI) software solutions play in this field going forward.

    Micro-targeting is certainly a place for Big Data to shine.  That said the problem to be solved and the confidence in the validity and reliability of the data must ascertained. 

    Society faces some real challenges with how we manage, analyze and decide using data.  This is but one example where old methods no longer produce valid and reliable results.  How will you and your organization go forward?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the recently published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be published by CRC Press in 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

    Copyright © 2024 The Rapid Response Institute LLC.  All rights reserved.

  • Operational Excellence Enabled by Leadership in Technology

    Operational Excellence Enabled by Leadership in Technology

    Both books focus on the use of advanced information technologies to attain and sustain Operational Excellence.  Today, organizations are drinking from a firehose of advanced solutions such as Big Data, Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, Business Intelligence, Virtual Reality, Digital Twins and much more.

    Moreover, the roles of executives at all levels are changing.  It is no longer satisfactory to leave major decision to Chief Technology/Digital/Information types.  Everyone has a stake in these (in some case $100 million or more, bet you company decisions).  For example,

    • The business need must be identified, verified and a detailed plan put in place to acquire and implement the technology of choice.
    • Is this aligned with organizational objectives?
    • How will these new technologies integrate into existing systems, if at all?
    • Does the organization have the maturity to undertake this process?  In other words, is it culturally ready and if not, what must be done to get ready?  Examples include upskilling the workforce, what new skills will be needed and so forth.

    The list is lengthy and detailed which is further explained the new book mentioned.  Additionally, what role do non-IT executives play in this process.  The Blogger believes is it no longer satisfactory to outsource the future ‘core competencies’ to the technology staff or key third parties, including Systems Integrators.  The so-called experts.  What agendas do these parties have and are they aligned with the organization mission and strategy?

    Bet Your Career

    These advanced and emerging and sometimes very immature software solutions will touch every division, department and individual employees as well at the organizational ecosystem.  Poor performance will end careers and possibly organizations.  As always, there will be winners and losers, both at the organization level as well as individuals.

    We could go on, but readers get the point.  This is game-changing for industry sectors, organizations including government agencies and finally for individuals.  Big decisions will need to be made and soon.

    What are you doing to prepare of this transformational tsunami?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the just published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be published by CRC Press in 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • Let’s Test Artificial Intelligence

    Let’s Test Artificial Intelligence

    This author is working on a book to be published in early 2025 that addresses issues about the decision to procure and implement today’s exploding technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).  So, for this edition, we wanted to try something new.  We are going to ask Chat GPT how to sell Artificial Intelligence and glean knowledge from this non-human response.

    We will ask the following and present the AI response.  Do to space limitations we will limit the length of the AI answer.  Finally, how does the AI response compare to experience?

    Question: What are the Top Ten B2B Sales Objections?

    We are licensed and used ‘Chatbot Pro powered by OpenAI.’ to obtain the following response:

    In B2B sales, encountering objections is common. Here are ten of the most frequent objections sales professionals may face:

    1. Price Concerns: “It’s too expensive.” Buyers often worry about how a purchase impacts their budget.

    2. Need for Approval: “I need to get this approved by my manager.” This highlights the longer decision-making process in B2B environments.

    3. Existing Vendor Loyalty: “We’re already working with another provider.” Customers may be reluctant to change suppliers due to established relationships.

    4. Timing Issues: “We’re not ready to make a decision right now.” This can signal that the buyer needs more time or is in a different stage of their purchasing journey.

    5. Lack of Trust: “I don’t know enough about your company.” Prospects may require more assurance regarding the credibility and track record of the vendor.

    6. Concerns Over ROI: “How can you guarantee a return on investment?” Buyers want assurance that the product or service will add value to their business.

    7. Complexity of Implementation: “The implementation process seems complicated.” Prospects may fear that adopting a new solution could disrupt their operations.

    8. Product Fit: “I’m not sure this meets our specific needs.” For B2B buyers, product alignment with their unique requirements is vital.

    9. Potential Risks: “What if it doesn’t work for us?” Buyers may worry about the risks associated with adopting new solutions or the potential for failure.

    10. Economic Conditions: “Given the current economic climate, we need to be cautious.” External factors, such as economic downturns, can lead to increased scrutiny on new expenditures.

    Addressing these objections effectively is crucial for closing deals in the B2B space.

    This is pretty impressive.  It is a simple example of the power this set of technologies can deliver if used properly.  Readers may remember an example of how not to use AI.  Some examples can be found in our Blog edition, How Stupid is AI?  Humans still develop Artificial Intelligence solutions.  Therefore, the relative value of this suite of technologies isa function of the expertise of those seeking to solve various difficult challenges.

    What Unreleased Value will you Address with AI and Why?

    We are pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be published by CRC Press in 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the just published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • What Do You Think About Artificial Intelligence?

    What Do You Think About Artificial Intelligence?

    The world is abuzz, not with the US presidential election, but with Artificial Intelligence (AI).  How do you feel about this game changing suite of technologies?

    Whether we agree or not, the AI tsunami is coming ashore.  What we, as individuals do about this phenomenon will dictate the remainder of our career and even quality of life.

    Do you see this as a threat or opportunity?  Technological advancement has led to the indoor flush toilet, horseless carriage and even the ubiquitous Smartphone.  What makes AI any different?

    The burden we all face when confronting the inevitable is to adapt.  Some jobs will be eliminated, (the preverbal buggy whip manufactures) and others will emerge.  Your task is to stay relevant.

    Beyond AI

    AI technology is not the beginning or the new, but the next step in the ongoing information technology resolution.  Expect much more to come and sooner rather than later.

    Humans have always had to develop and adapt to new technologies.  Our modern lifestyle is a testament to our collective success.  Embrace the change and as they saying goes “Yippee Ki-Yay,”  Or just go for it!  AI is only a step, more is to come.

    What are you doing to assure you are not left behind?

    We are pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be published by CRC Press in 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the just published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

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  • The Times They Are a Changin!

    The Times They Are a Changin!

    Creative destruction is the dismantling of long-standing practices in order to make way for innovation and is seen as a driving force of capitalism.

    We live in an era of hyper-change.  Technology to be sure, but all social constructs are under duress.  The question is, how will all of us at an individual level deal with these enormous pressures?

    The statement, “The only constant is change” remains a basic truism.  From the time of our birth until our death we  undergo physical and psychological transformation.  At this writer’s age, I have been through more than seven decades of evolvement.  With hopefully a few more cycles in the future.

    Joseph Schumpeter (1883–1950) coined the seemingly paradoxical term “creative destruction,” and generations of economists have adopted it as a shorthand description of the free market’s messy way of delivering progress.

    The question is, would we have it any other way?  Some central government (most likely unelected) bureaucrat dictating how we should respond to social/economic forces is not only anti-American it is Fascist if not Communist policy.

    If Lenin and the Bolsheviks prevail in the upcoming US presential election, get ready for the disruption of life as we know it.  Welcome to East Berlin, circa 1960s.

    How will you preserver Capitalism, the best, worse, social construct?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the just published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • How Do You Know the App is Giving You the Right Answer?

    How Do You Know the App is Giving You the Right Answer?

    We all rely on Apps for most of our decision making.  But, how do we know the app is providing the correct answer?

    The stories about spreadsheet errors are legendary and are usually the result of human ‘data entry’ or ‘calculation’ errors.  However, software can be the root cause for problems.  Software bugs are classified into three types:

    1. Software Defects by its Nature–The type of software, its functionality and role it plays with other software applications.
    2. Software Defects by its Priority–The likelihood of a severe impact on the software program.
    3. Software Defects by its Severity–The impact a defect can have on operations, other integrated packages, etc.

    Regardless of the software defect/error type, or caused by human misuse or data input issues, the results can be devastating.  The following 3.38 minute video does a good job presenting a high-level overview on this subject which is probably the level of detail a layperson should have on this subject.

    I Give, How Would I Know?

    The navigation system in my 2015 SUV routinely tells me that I have arrived at my destination a block or more before I actually have.  I know this from experience and expect this error.  However, we do not often have this level of visibility into the output of software.

    The long-time classic IT response to a question is, “It Depends.”  The argument meaning, that the answer is unknowable and I need more information.  This response from your IT division or third party contractors is totally irresponsible.  For example, they need to go find out and report back that Gaps exist and need to be addressed.

    If I am completing my expense account on my portal and the total sum seems incorrect, it is not the end of the world and this can easily be remedied.  If the decision has greater consequences or is risky, additional assessment should be sought.  For example:

    • If the recommendation is  based on the output of a spreadsheet or other app output is critical, have a neutral third party independently arrive at a conclusion.  It they agree, probably OK, if not more assessment is warranted.  If the discussion is, ‘We don’t have time,’ then perhaps the response to the decision to the question is NO!
    • Decision makers need to look at the three software issues listed above and answer the internal answer as to the impact of the software.  Not just the possibility of errors or incorrect calculations but the test of the impact on the organization if errors exists.  The CloudStrike episode is a case in point where that organization did not take Version Management professionally.
    • Finally, does the answer pass the ‘Smell Test?’  What do your experts say about the output; by they way they can be wrong.

    Much of this is subjective, but decision makers should treat this technology as the do with other technologies.  IT solutions can have a high impact on the firm, yet they can be disastrous as well.  The ultimate test; IT indicatives/decisions must be scrutinized with the same degree as any other corporate level decision.

    For the complex AI derived responses, the opinion writer suggests the humans trying to decipher this data, look to the Scientific Method.  This is tried approach to problem solving and even if only AI can provide an answer, the process to get this answer needs to be understood.

    This scientist was trained during the slide rule era.  As such we needed to understand the problem and how it would be solved, rather that an answer spit out from a computer.  This skill set needs to be resurrected in the AI era.

    Are you assured your software is accurate?  How do you know?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the just published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • A Model for Technology Adoption

    A Model for Technology Adoption

    Oh My, I am Swamped by this Firehose of New Technologies.  How can I Understand, Much Less Use These Tools?

    Like most of us, our job is not about new bigger, better, faster IT.  We have the daily grind to attend to and quarterly metrics to make.  What we need from IT providers (internal and external) are the solutions and tools we need to do our jobs.  But how do we know what are the right software solutions and which will disappoint us?

    This is Easier than You Think

    In our forthcoming book to be published by CRC Press in 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making we address technology adoption issues at length.  However, while you are waiting to order your copy of these guidelines, there are a few things you can begin with.

    Ask yourself the following questions:

    • What is the quality of your data and how is it used in decision-making processes.?
    • How much do you and your organization know about the challenges and trends in Big Data and associated applications, such as Artificial Intelligence (AI)?
    • How ready is your organization to fund and implement new advanced software/cloud applications?
    • Does your organization know how to realize the full and measurable economic value from these technologies?
    • What is your organization’s appetite for the risks involved from implementing new technologies?
    • How will these technologies be used in your organization?

    Getting a handle on these few questions will give you and your organization a good start in this journey.

    Final Thoughts

    One can make a case that the advent of new information technologies is ramping up.  The expectations this author has for AI, for instance, is just beginning.  Why and How organization take advantage of these solutions is not longer in the hands of the Chief Information Officer or other ‘C’ level individual responsible for keeping the firm abreast of advances.  These are now corner office decisions, and in some cases the Board of Directors will have to concur and/or approve.

    How are you preparing yourself and your organization the Brave New World?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the just published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • What Does ‘Systemic’ Actually Mean?

    What Does ‘Systemic’ Actually Mean?

    The word Systemic is tossed around quite loosely these days.  Especially when discussing social issues and politics.

    But what does it really mean when we say something is systemic by nature?  By one definition it is, “Of or relating to a system or a system and other relating to or affecting the entire body or an entire organism.”  Indeed a broad judgement.

    So when we say an entire nation is a systemically ‘blank blank,’ does that include the prognosticator that is making that statement?  Are those caught in the cross hairs of a so called systemic belief equally feel the same way about all other groups?  Not bloody likely as my Brit buddies say.

    How Do We Define a System?

    One definition of the word includes the world or universe.  Typically, we think of something smaller and ‘bounded.’  What do we mean by bounded?  Readers might be surprised that this term is a mathematical term describing a function, sequence or variation of a function.  In layman’s terms, systems have limits whether the human body, an organization, or society.

    Systems also have ecosystems and are not all organic in and of them selves and they interact with other systems.  For example, a commercial firm has suppliers and customers as well as local governments and even media outlets.

    Therefore, complexity is an inherent components and human constituents to ALL systems.  This stands by reason in our very robust and diverse world today.

    As such human behavior can take many different decision paths regarding any given issue.  We discuss these causal affects in our 2017 piece, Excellent Behaviors: Assessing Relationships in the Operational Excellence Ecosystem.

    It Is Not That Easy

    Defining the systemic nature of any system is very difficult.  NO system can be defined by one word.  Systems are complex sets of moving interdependent parts whose boundary is often ill defined.

    Decision makers must assure they are using valid and reliability data as they define the problem they are trying to solve.  Without such preparation, the answer put forth may be incorrect or meaningless.

    Next time a colleague or pundit is tossing around the word ‘systemic’ as them what they mean and when they say it means ALL, ask them how do they know that?

    In and of itself the term is meaningless.  Without a detailed definition of the system being discussed, good decisions are not possible and most likely will be poorly implemented with predictable results.

    So if you believe a system is a mess, how do you go about fixing?  Methodical or emotional?  One will work better that the other approach.

    What do you mean when you say something is systemic?

    If you need help with your complex system, see below and contact us.

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the just published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • Getting To Smart

    Getting To Smart

    We are pleased to announce the publication of our new book, Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.

    The first sentence in the Abstract of Chapter 2, Operational Technologies reads, “There is a lot of information about ‘Smart Manufacturing’ albeit precious little information about its implementation and ongoing sustainability. Without a set of guidelines or what is commonly known as a Roadmap, the likelihood of success is limited.  Like an architect’s blueprint, a Roadmap provides management and its Information Technology (IT) support organizations (internal/external) with the ability to cost effectively drive their organizations toward Smart.”  This is the theme of the book which develops an actionable Roadmap that enables organizations to successful implement and sustain Smart Transformational Change.

    Implementation Process

    Regardless of your industry sector, there are several major processes to follow when developing and implementing a Smart Transformation.

    •  Identify the Economic Value of the investment
    • Determine the Maturity of the Technology to be used and Risk associated with its use
    • Process drives the Technology, not the use of ‘cool’ or topical hype
    • Align with industry and technology Standards
    • Put in place a Risk Mitigation strategy
    • Learn from other’s Best or Good Practices
    •  Drive the organizational Transformational Process
    • Manage to the Measures of Success

    We have driven this type of change based on new technologies and knowledge for almost 50 years.  This approach is ‘Tried and True’ as well as well documented.  One suggests that the Roadmap provided is the framework needed for success regardless of your industry sector.

    How are you assuring the Smart Transformation adds Value to your Organization?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our recent blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • Clickbait Redux

    Clickbait Redux

    We are offered the world at the tip of our fingers, But!  There are many prices to pay.  Theft by scam simply by clicking on a great opportunity is getting more sophisticated all the time.

    Recently, this pundit was offered a once in a lifetime possibility if only I would listen to an MS Office (voicemail) sent to my email account.  Seemed OK, how harmful could it be?  Certainty, this world class software provider tool was safe?

    Well, as the saying goes, my mama didn’t raise no fool.  Not saying I won’t be duped at some point, but I like to think the odds are against it.  Tagged as junk, I will never know what the sender had to say.  Nor do I care, since likely it was phishing at best and possibly something worse.

    That said, businesses cannot run on the basis of individual prowess, especially when the scams often exceed hundreds a week or even a day.  Junk mail filters are much better than before but still not perfect and malefactors are always launching cyber organized criminal efforts to supersede defensive protections.

    Equally, if not more important, how many legitimate businesses lose sales or even have their reputations significantly compromise as a result of scams?  If a prospects clicks on your logo and is defrauded, her or she will most likely continue to blame the logo owner and not the criminals.

    Setting the Hook

    Fisherman know how to catch fish.  They know the right locations, time of day, cloudy or not and so forth and so on the land the ‘Big One.’

    On the other hand, digital hackers do not appear to have this ingrained focused instinct.  Perhaps, this skill is not necessary for them.

    Masquerading in plain sight, spammers try to tap into the greed in all of us.  Easy, quick and large these opportunities are attractive and many fall for them.

    As a mentor and advisor to organizations of all sizes, I consistently review product/service and even enterprise value propositions.  Frankly, many are found wanting.  Currently, the Lean Canvas construct and/or Elevator Pitch are models for succinctly posturing a position quickly.

    However, it takes a lot of effort to craft the short piece.  Only then does the firm have something of value for prospects and customers.

    While Fortune 500 et al will remain targets of cyber hacking, it is possible for others to make themselves less attractive to organized crime.  Firms should ask themselves, what is the goal for their web presence?

    In 2019, this blog addressed the “what’s in it for me question” as opposed to collecting ‘Likes.’  That edition contained a real world case study of wrong-headed thinking by a consulting firm collecting the wrong data.  As the client, we did not implement that recommendation.

    There is a fine line between building market ‘Buzz’ and simply collecting ‘Likes’.  However, the real focus should be on building repeat customers.  Recommendations from others, should still be part of the business model.

    Cyber is now an important part of every firm’s business model.  Part of the organization’s cybersecurity model has to be, “Why are individuals coming to the website?”  In other words, “What value are we providing them?”

    What is the Value of a ‘Like’ to your Organization and What is the ‘Risk’ of Obtaining One?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

  • 100

    100

    This edition marks the 100th post in our Critical Mass Blog series.  We have sought to provide thoughtful, unbiased insight into the contemporary business and organizational challenges we all face.  Since our first blog post on November 27, 2017 our world has turned over in ways none expected.  Likely, this trend will continue.

    This series continues a tradition of newsletters, opinion pieces and other on line punditry first begun in 1998 with our New Millennium News.  A bi-monthly email with a subscription base of approximately 7,000 readers.  A huge number at that time.  We estimate that hundreds of thousands or more have benefited from this knowledge transfer.

    Coincidentally, we reach this milestone as we begin the new year–a time of renewal.  We will continue to address critical issues individuals, businesses, agencies and others face as we all navigate an increasingly perilous path.  This series has addressed Human Resource issues including Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) Teams , the arrival of Smart Technology, International Business, Covid-19, Supply Chain Management, Operational Excellence, Cultural Transformation (including Safety Culture) Sales, Risk Mitigation and of course Leadership.  Today’s organizations must be very good at all of these disciplines!

    Available Tools

    The mission of the Rapid Response Institute (RRI) is to enable our clients with the ability to posture themselves in their market segments so that they can thrive in volatile markets and capitalize on uncertainty, not suffer because of them.  This is especially important for those economic actors in Critical Infrastructure sectors.

    In support of this mission the firm has developed a suite of Intellectual Property (IP) which includes Know How, practical roadmap Books and guidelines as well as Software as a Service (SaaS) solutions among others.  Many readers know that once a process has been standardized with minimal configuration required, the data is the ultimate driver.  This is the heart of most Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) solutions.

    With advances in technology, RRI has taken these once multi-million dollar solutions to a price point as well as Use Case where all organizations can utilize this capability.  Moreover, our advancements in work flow such as epitomized in our Cross Cultural Serious Games, Economic Value Proposition Matrix, and Smart OpEx (Operations Management System) and Risk Simulation Modeling add immediate and significant value to the challenges faced as articulated above.  Other Free Tools are available as well.

    Pulling It All Together

    The method to our madness is–Operations!!  As some are fond of saying with derision, “It’s All About the Benjamins.”  Well, it actually is.  If ‘for-profit’ firms are not profitable, they fail.  No amount of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) will save them if they cannot deliver to paying customers.

    Everything RRI does helps organizations to deliver stakeholder value, compliant with ESG standards.  That is our Bottom Line and we are also pleased that Dr. Shemwell, Managing Director has been an independent advocate for responsible corporate success since 2004.

    FYI, major losses and legal actions do not enhance stakeholder value.  Neither for employees, local communities or equity holders.  Everyone loses when in terrible scenarios such as Deepwater Horizon, internal bias corporate hubris, poor high reliability processes/human factor shortcomings or lack of actual DEI.

    This journey continues.  Stay tuned for the next 100 editions where will continue to provide our thoughts on relevant matters.  Thank you very much for your readership and support.

    How is Your Organization Positioned for the Next Four Years?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    For more on DEI Standards, see the newly released ISO-30415.

    You can contact this author as well.

  • THE SCIENCE: The Reason We Need STEM

    THE SCIENCE: The Reason We Need STEM

    Almost every day, we hear that “The Science” says . . .  We are told Covid-19 and Climate Change are based on The Science and as such we must accept that expert analyses as ‘settled.’  Then something changes and once more the science police demand we accept their new interpretation.

    The near-term result: confusion and lack of trust, even acrimony.  The Science, as presented by the media, politicians and others is a static solution.  As we follow The Science, we are told we must adjust but not necessarily why.

    There is no reason to trust to fate or our political betters (call themselves elites).  The Science is not that mysterious.  The term is meant to deride most of us, including degreed scientists like this author.  Might want to ask those pontificating to define the ‘Scientific Method.’

    Set at the beginning of the 20th Century Space Race, the movie, Hidden Figures brought broad attention to the mathematical genius of a group of then unknown women.  They were instrumental helping the fledgling NASA achieve the early goals of manned space flight, including the lunar landings.  They understood The Science better than others.

    On the Shoulders of Giants

    With the social deck stacked against them, these women rose above the norms of the time and accomplished feats unknown and certainly unexpected by contemporaries.  Perhaps more importantly, they demonstrated that math and science is not reserved for elites.  They educated all of us.

    We live in a technological age and told shortly everything will be ‘Smart.’  The workforce will change, and our view of the world will be dramatically different.  Moreover, many of us will no longer be relevant or even employable.  Balderdash!

    Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math (STEM)

    STEM is the anacronym for the set of technical knowledge embodied in these ‘hard’ disciplines.  Collectively, they form the backbone of our 21st Century economy and social advancement.  While liberal arts disciplines are important, STEM knowledge is critical if we are to hold the ‘experts’ accountable.

    Increasingly, ‘soft’ or social skills are also seen as important.  The old concept of the ‘Nerd’ is giving way to the technologist with human empathy.

    The emerging generation(s) will need STEM expertise as well as soft skills.  In some ways this is no different than previous times when the Titans of Industry changed their world.  Building on new technologies, they built business.  A successful business requires a knowledgeable workforce that can monetize technology.

    The titans this time are everyday men and women, even juveniles.  Knowledge of STEM subjects is dictating individual success or failure.  Get on the STEM train.

    Role of R B C

    We have routinely commented on the Relationships, Behaviors, Conditions model first put forth in the 1990s.  From a previous blog, “One of the basic tenets of the RBC Framework is the general construct that Relationships cannot be determined a priori.  The well-used example is a man and a woman sitting on a bench at a bus stop.  Are they married, siblings, coworkers, friends or simply two people waiting to catch the same/different bus?

    Their relationship cannot be known directly.  However, their Behaviors will provide insight into how they relate to each other.  Romantic behavior may indicate marriage, dating, an affair etc. They may still be coworkers but most likely are not strangers.

    The third dimension, Conditions (environment) can be considered the stage upon which behaviors play.”

    One can make the case that STEM is a condition or situation.  In other words, our technology environment.  The behavior of individuals with these skill sets will determine the relationship these individuals have with their peers, customers/business ecosystem and economy/society in general.

    Finally

    We spend a lot of time, quoting “The Science.”  Most vocalizing the term are not scientists or even qualified to understand its basic tenets.  But taken as gospel because of some perceived authority, i.e., politicians, newscasters, celebrities and bureaucrats among others.

    This scientist suggests that STEM is necessary to assure the emerging generations understand “The Science” and how it can actually be used to benefit mankind.  And, oh yea and make a buck!

    Where does STEM fit in Your Organization’s Strategy?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.

  • Heavy Metal Rocks

    Heavy Metal Rocks

    Not the rock bands of the 1960s–1980s, but the mining required to extract the heavy metals necessary for electric vehicles and other renewable energy solutions.  So, what is a heavy metal and why do we care?

    Typically, “In science, a heavy metal is a metallic element which is toxic and has a high densityspecific gravity or atomic weight. However, the term means something slightly different in common usage, referring to any metal capable of causing health problems or environmental damage.”  Often these toxic elements are carcinogenic.

    For most readers this will not come as a surprise.  The heavy metals in batteries can be recycled, thus minimizing their negative impact on the environment and subsequently, humans and other life forms, i.e., the food chain.  However, smaller batteries are typically tossed into the trash.  Larger ones such as lead acid automotive batteries are usually reclaimed (for a fee to the consumer).

    From this pundit’s perspective, it is too early in the technology maturity to fully understand how millions of EV (electric vehicle) will be recycled effectively and economically.  Managing the lifecycle of these ‘elements’ from mining, use, recycling and reuse is a significant component of these renewables.  There is a cost associated with this process, both monetary and socially.

    Total Carbon Ownership

    In the business, the term TCO usually referees to the Total Cost of Ownership.  Updated, this Lifecycle metric may better reflect the Total Carbon impact of a product/solution, i.e., large scale batteries, solar panel, fossil fuels, etc.

    TCO = Carbon as a function of two major lifecycle elements; Operations and Decommissioning.

    For this purpose we define Operations (aka Use) as the lifecycle process from mineral extraction, manufacturing, deployment and maintenance.

    Decommissioning is the process of taking out of service, removal and appropriate disposal of components, including recycling.

    Follow on from our blog of November 2, 2021, where Milton Friedman detailed the complex supply chain required to manufacture a simple yellow graphite pencil, one can only imagine how complex the requirements are for a wind turbine.  Carbon neutral is not a simple problem to solve.

    Enter Structural Dynamics

    Many readers understand that Machine Learning Algorithms use the statistical multivariable method, Multiple Linear Regression–defined as, where “one variable is estimated by the use of more than one other variable.”  While this tool can be useful when assessing the impact and relationships of several independent variables, it does not necessarily help organizations to understand their TCO.

    Theoretically, every economic actor in the supply chain or the decommissioning process can calculate their carbon footprint for each​ product/step they control.  In the real world, such intangibles, i.e., safety are open to interpretation, ‘fudging’ or worse.  Moreover, we can expect large gaps or errors (inadvertent or otherwise) in carbon models that must be addressed if we are to realistically address the carbon problem.

    In the 1990s as a result of watching a number of systemic enterprise failures and/or poor performance, and wondering how this happened with such regularity the questions was raised–why?  This led this author coin the term with the subsequent book, Structural Dynamics: Foundation of Next Generation Management Science.

    Most do not understand the processes and structural changes at work on a daily basis.  Focused on near term performance metrics, they lose sight of the forest while concentrating on the trees.  The subsequent disruption caused is often rapid and economically cataclysmic.

    Structural Dynamics uses tools such as Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to seek to identify the underlying process and structural movements.  It appears to be a useful tool to address the Total Carbon Ownership that organizations will have to address in the very near future.

    Dealing With Residuals

    Whether heavy metals or carbon, organizations must also assure ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) criteria are met throughout the energy lifecycle.  However, there is a cost associated with these and other organizational structures from the deployment and/or use of energy of all types.

    TCO is a decades long cost that can transcend actual corporate life, i.e., acquisition, bankruptcy, etc.  Currently, the oil and gas industry is littered with assets no one claims ownership.  Two cases follow:

    • Stranded assets are, “those investments which are made but which, at some time prior to the end of their economic life (as assumed at the investment decision point), are no longer able to generate an economic return, as a result of changes in the market and regulatory environment.”  These resources are no longer worth continued investment.
    • Abandoned assets have reached the end of life.  By one source, it is estimated that there are approximately 53,000 Gulf of Mexico offshore oil and gas well in this category.  Remediation costs range from $500k to $10 million per well–min $26.5 billion.

    It is reasonable to expect that all sources in the ‘energy basket’ will have similar end of life futures.  Green is therefore, not unique.

    “Forewarned is Forearmed”

    A Serious Assessment

    This pundit believes that scant attention has been paid to the lifecycle (economic and social) price of renewables and that the Total Carbon Ownership cost has never been calculated–certainly not published.  However, there are tools that will shed light on this going forward.

    TCO is a function of a detailed and long lifecycle, not unlike oil and gas assets that in some cases are over half a century old.  Any subsequent model of this process is by default complex, detailed and full of unknowns, or unmeasured latent variables.

    The approached this writer has developed using Structural Equation Modeling driven by Structural Dynamics seems well fitted to address this longitudinal and futuristic problem.

    For many, the so-called ‘green energy’ seems without consequences.  The history of energy suggests otherwise.  A full assessment using Structural Dynamics can reveal gaps, misunderstandings, errors and omissions.

    This model will advise management and even regulators what the true cost of an energy source is.  The approach is worthy of a serious discussion.  By the way, this model works for all sources of energy including coal and other fossil fuels as well as renewables.

    What is Your Firm’s TCO and How Can It be Lowered?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    Interested in Cross Cultural Engagement or DEI, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.

    Contact the author for information on these and others subjects covered in the Critical Mass series.

  • The Secret of the Pencil

    The Secret of the Pencil

    The writing instrument, the pencil is purported to have been invented in 1795.  It has been around for a while and continues to serve a useful purpose.

    In the following video, the late economist Milton Friedman describes the process for manufacturing this simple longstanding tool.  The point he makes is that regardless of the simplicity and maturity of a product, it requires a robust supply chain from raw material through the distribution of the finished product.

    He makes the case that no single organization can make this simple tool without help from many economic actors and the thousands of organizations employed either as employees or part of individual supply chains.  This is a powerful argument for free market behaviors.  Well worth a little over 2 minutes of your time to view.

    As of this writing, there is probably more discussion about the global supply chain than this writer can remember.  The last time we saw such exposure was after the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami, offshore Japan.  However, it was specific to goods and services provided from Japan.  This time it actually is different.  The current shipping disruption is purported to impact on the US holiday gift giving season.  The resulting impact on firms of all sizes may be dramatic and even impact on all levels of politics.

    States like Florida and Georgia and others are arguing that Asian shippers gain value by landing at their ports versus the closer ones on the West Coast of the United States.  If the economics bear this model out, significant long-term changes may be made.

    Pundits, including this one like to talk about Creative Destruction and the systemic changes that can come about as the result of an event.  While the pandemic may be the causal incident, the global supply chain will likely be the lasting impactful change in global commerce.

    As with the simple, mature product the pencil, every firm’s lifeblood is its supply chain.  How it works through this transformational period may help declare the winners and losers going forward.

    In our forthcoming book, we address the emerging Smart Manufacturing model and the role of the supply chain in the future.  Expect this component to become even more important.  Disruptions like the current one will ruin more than just the ability to manufacture automobiles.  Those with weak SC strategies will most likely fail.

    What is Your Firm Doing to Develop the Robust Supply Chain of the Future.

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    Interested in Cross Cultural Engagement or DEI, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.

    Contact the author for information on these and others subjects covered in the Critical Mass series.

  • Welcome to the 70s—Again!

    Welcome to the 70s—Again!

    This Baby Boomer graduated from college in 1970.  Just in time for Saturday Night Fever and Grease, Avocado colored refrigerators and Harvest Gold dinnerware.  Plus, the best friend a then bachelor ever had–the microwave oven!

    Not to forget the Gasoline Lines and Hyper Inflation, Vietnam, Peace/Race Protests/Riots, a Major Recession, Stagflation and other wonderful (not) youthful memories–ugly political and economic time not wished on future generations.  Adjusted for inflation a gallon of gasoline was $0.36 in 1970.  By 1980 it was $1.19–greater than a 330% increase.

    Seems like as Yoga Berra once said, “It’s like déjà vu all over again,” or ‘Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it.”  Yet here we are again, or so it seems.

    While I am not dusting off my leisure suit or growing what’s left of my hair, if as this boomer believes we are beginning to relive the 1970s economy, so what should we do?  How should we respond to this new, yet old situation?

    Most financial planners, corporate executives, academics, regulators and others were either not old enough or even alive when the economic and political shocks of the 1970s engulfed the globe.  Without this experienced knowledge, many maybe ill equipped to deal with the current  tsunami that is building.  Perhaps a critical concern for everyone’s 401K retirement investments?

    Hyper inflation is a cancer.  It destroys economies and even societies, not to mention families and individuals in its wake.  Real estate may be a winner if anyone can afford to purchase your house.  However, equities struggle and cash is toast.  From 1970 to 1980 the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced a scant 5 percent.

    How does this compare with an over 300% increase in the gasoline we all needed for our automobiles?  Short answer, it does not and individual households went backward during that period.

    So What Do We Do Now?

    Flight to quality.  But what represents quality?  Big Tech comes to mind but what is the underlying value proposition of a web based database?  The outage of a major player blamed on a network issue and a number of (internal) cascading issues–the plague of many industrial incidents including Deepwater Horizon questions that proposition.

    Are companies this vulnerable in our age of digitalization, or was this a sign of something else?  As with many IT oriented decisions, “It depends.”  The fact that one of the world’s largest, high profile web based companies suffered a significant outage, not as a result of a cyber attack but apparently its own technical incompetency is not reassuring in a Cloud based global economy.

    The something else–we have discussed the need for High Reliability for complex sectors including the 16 sectors the US Homeland Security deems as Critical Infrastructure.  Social media is not on that list, but manufacturing is.  In our forthcoming (2022) book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability,” we address risk mitigation strategies that can inoculate organizations from such catastrophic IT failures.

    Heavy industries such as oil and gas are routinely criticized when a catastrophic incident occurs.  These need no longer happen and we have put forth strategies routinely for more than a decade including in our 2014 book, Implementing a Culture of Safety: A Roadmap to Performance-Based Compliance.

    As we move into the ‘Smart’ era, it will be incumbent on organizations to take steps to mitigate what happened to a web based chat room provider.  The exogenous risk of critical infrastructure failing is significant, per the recent Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack and the systemic damage done to the US east coast.

    The 1970s were marked by turmoil and follow on from the late 1960s.  Richard Nixon took the country off the Gold Standard opening up significant economic and individual distress.  We appear to be on the cusp of Yogi’s cautionary tale.  It does not have to be, but appears likely.  Is the US dollar no longer the world’s reserve currency in a era of bitcoin?  If so, what are the ramifications?

    Finally, as the son of parents from the Greatest Generation, I admit I never faced the challenges they endured.  During my 20s, the period was an inconvenience, yet one I do not care to relive in my 70s.  The graphic was taken from the Internet without citation.  The author is unknown but we acknowledge his/her sense of humor.  AND I can relate to it!

    The Fed has indicated Inflation (Stagflation?) is here to stay.  To this individual, this is a scary statement even though it posited as essentially ‘no big deal.’  We will see in a year if it was as big a deal as it was in the 1970s.

    How will You Manage in this Environment?

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    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    Interested in Cross Cultural Engagement or DEI, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.

    For more information on these and others subjects covered in the Critical Mass series contact this author.

  • Questions, Questions, Questions

    Questions, Questions, Questions

    Picture sourced from LinkedIn, author unknown.

    It seems like there are a lot of answers these days, even to questions that have not been posed.  As of this writing, this author understands that masks work for Covid-19 but vaccines not so much although we are advised to get the shots and even a third one this fall.  So many flip-flops I feel like I spent the last year on a beach.

    Claiming, The settled Science says … is an answer designed to shut down debate.  Facts are, unless one believes the world is flat or the earth is the center of the universe (thank you Galileo Galilei), science is never settled.  If it were. we would be living in a Flintstones’ world.

    “And the Answer Is . . .”

    Thank you Alex.  For almost two years, we have been told the answers to the Covid-19 crisis are understood and the data is valid and reliable.   Then it isn’t.  Blamed on a dynamic and changing environment, we are told “we are following the science.”  Or perhaps just a political slogan.

    Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!”  Just sit down, shut up and do as your told is often the mantra when authorizes’ edicts are questioned.  Good advise for a toddler but not so much for those over the age of 10.

    Are We There Yet?

    Tesla crashes are the latest Big Data enabled autopilot failures.  The level of maturity regarding digitalization and its various cousins has been discussed in this blog before.  Begging the question, are we ready for data Prime Time?

    We are besieged with answers from all manner of pundits, both electronic and in person.  We are told, “we must believe” without any serious discussion or in-depth assessment of the explanation.  Moreover, many of these statements regarding technology have not undergone the Scientific Method process.

    The result; many do not believe.  Covid-19 vaccination concerns are but one example of this squandering of faith.  Readers may have other issues that bother them.

    One consistent argument for not taking the inoculation is that vaccines take many years to develop and vet.  Perhaps, in the past but (1) we don’t have years with this deadly virus and (2) technology marches on and perhaps years are no longer required.  One can argue that this lack of trust is a result of so many answers in advance of the questions.

    How is your organization assuring that Answers are not being provided before the Questions are asked?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.

  • Roadmap to Decision Making In the ‘Smart’ Era

    Roadmap to Decision Making In the ‘Smart’ Era

    “Nothing is more difficult, and therefore more precious, than to be able to decide.”

    Napoleon Bonaparte

    Volumes have been written on decision-making and this pundit has offered his share of insight and comment on the subject as well.  Some of our comments regard the appropriateness of the human intercession in electronic decision making.  Others raise questions regarding algorithm fallibility.  Moreover, Human Factors must be considered for any technology initiative which are becoming increasingly important.

    If one unpacks the previous paragraph a substantial level of complexity emerges.  As complexity increases so does risk and the need from proper governance.  However, many still see this potential transformation through the lens of just another IT initiative.

    Roadmap

    The oil and gas industry faced a similar dilemma at the dawn of the 21st Century.  At the time, referred to as DOFF or Digital Oilfield of the Future, a plethora of technologies became available.  The task was to transform 100 plus years of traditional operation to what is now referred to as the Digital Oilfield, aka Integrated Operations and a number or synonyms.  While this processes continues to evolve as new solutions emerge, i.e., Cloud, at the time much was trial and error.

    In conjunction with industry leadership, we released our Roadmap to Enterprise Optimization: A Guide to the Impact of Information Driven Field Operations on the Petroleum Corporation in the fall of 2004.  We believe it was the first industry (POSC) supported effort that was not simply research but a ‘bona fide’ action plan or roadmap to success based on industry/other knowledge, standards, economic value and best practices.

    Click for full size Integrated Operations Framework or graphic

    Since then, we have updated this roadmap into an Operational Excellence Platform.  Note that Integrated Operations is a key component.  The platform is a robust detailed solution that is available not just to the energy sector but all sectors identified by Homeland Security as Critical Infrastructure.  These sectors were recently identified as susceptible to hacking by the US government.

    Getting Smart

    Enormous corporate (shareholder) wealth has been destroyed implementing ‘game changing’ technology enabled transformation efforts.  Are we about to do that again, getting smart?  The easy answer is yes, but it does not have to be.

    Roadmap constructs are well understood and provide guidance.  In some models the step by step process provide practitioners with well defined models that can lead to success–defined as on time and under budget performance against Key Performance Indicators (KPIs).

    We are in the process of writing a book, to be released in 2022.  One chapter will define a roadmap for the transformation to ‘Smart’ for a major industrial segment.  As with earlier works, it will focus on the human element aligned with a technology assessment process.

    Get Smart was a comedic TV show spoofing the Cold War ‘spy’ environment of the 1960s.  Getting Smart today may not be a lot different.  The goal under a ‘Cone of Silence‘ was to attain and sustain competitive advantaged achieving superior stakeholder returns.

    Getting smart in 2021 will require a ‘Roadmap to Smart.’  A set of ‘to do’ processes that assures success.

    What is your Organization’s Plan to put Smart Decisioning Making Processes in Place?

     

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.

  • Passing of the Greatest Generation

    Passing of the Greatest Generation

    Salute Ladies and Gentlemen!

    December 7, 1941 was 79 years ago.  A twenty-year-old at the time would be 99 today, almost a centenarian.  My father is 98 and not likely to see 2021.

    We live in a technological age, and despite the pandemic it is relatively easy living for many.  No one is asking our youth to go to foreign lands with the likelihood of not returning.

    If the Twentieth Century has taught us anything, it is that youth has stood up repeatedly despite the dithering of politicians.  Many of this century’s young warfighters continue this proud tradition of defending our nation and our freedoms.

    Born at the dawn of the last century, this generation saw the Great Depression and volunteered for the (hopefully) final global conflict; World War II.  Since Pearl Harbor, our world has changed dramatically and quickly.

    They saw the transformation of the United States into a global Super Power and slogged through some 45 years of the Cold War.  China moved from the backward nation occupied by Japan to its current position.

    The (possible) Chinese saying/curse, “May You Live In Interesting Times” applies to this selfless generation who laid the ground work for our modern world.  On way they invented the transistor in 1947—the foundation of our “Smart Technologies.”

    As they pass from the scene, in the words of Abraham Lincoln at Gettysburg, “It is for us the living, rather, to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought here have thus far so nobly advanced.”

    We must pick up their gauntlet.  In one sense it is a heavy lift; however, those who came before us have lightened our load.

    What Are You Doing to Make Your Parents and Grandparents Proud?

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    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.

  • Covid-19 Positive: Telemedicine Kicked into High Gear

    Covid-19 Positive: Telemedicine Kicked into High Gear

    Crisis Drives Change

    In 2001 this writer approached the Houston medical community, post tropical storm Allison which flooded many basements in the Houston Medical Center with the loss of experimental data and other records.  We proposed the development of an Internet based solution to hold and manage medical records of all types.  The response to my organization’s offer to digitize records was met with disbelief and ultimate rebuke.

    At the time I was employed by a major corporation with the technology and financial resources to accomplish this task.  Sales Objections included privacy, doctors will not ‘buy in,’ insurance will not pay for it and a host of other lame excuses.

    Flash forward to 2020.  Why are thing so different now and the idea of ‘digitalization’ almost universally accepted?

    Twenty years is a career for many, yet it took a crisis this year to kick the medical sector into action at critical mass—Coronavirus, aka Covid-19.  As often the case large organizations are content to stay with the status quo.  Culture, processes, and even individual bonuses incent lethargy and complacency.  This common trait is not limited to one sector.

    Moreover, advances in online telemetry support the physician’s ability to treat many aliments remotely.  The industry did not just ‘jump’ to the current state, it evolved over time.  For example, remote and inaccessible areas such as Antarctica have taken advantage of telemedicine including remotely directed surgeries.

    Democratization

    We may look back on 2020 as the seminal moment when medicine was digitalized.  Despite current access issues such as we are finding with K-12 education, most will have the ability to interact online in the near future.  Moreover, a number of COTS (commercial off the shelf) health solutions such as found in a variety of Smart phone products enable remote diagnosis and monitoring on a global basis.

    The catalyst for taking telemedicine to the next level is Covid-19!  A good Positive.

    How is your organization taking advantage of remote operational technologies?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.

  • Input Response: Cycle Time Reaction

    Input Response: Cycle Time Reaction

    Melvin—a story of growth.  At beginning of my oil and gas career, I was partnered with my mentor to be and at the time my supervisor; Melvin.  A gruff old cuss, he was a long-time south Louisiana ‘Cajun’ field engineer.  Little did I know at the time the next months would be life changing for me.

    The task at hand was open hole logging of oil wells using electronics and later computer driven—early digital oilfield solutions.  There was the ‘book’ and Melvin’s version of the book.  Years later when I used Melvin’s approach in Mississippi and was initially challenged by my operators.  I able to show them the method was safe and faster.  Accolades later, Melvin’s added value to the process was monetized; again.

    What I learned in the early days in south Louisiana was not a short cut or work around.  Rather, it was from experts who understood the work processes better than the desktop engineers writing the manuals.

    Flash Forward

    As of this writing, the Boeing Max 8 seems to be back in the operational fleet.  Months of financial disaster when knowledgeable pilots already knew how overcome its software short comings.  What did they know that the ‘suits’ and desk bound engineers did not—experience in reality!

    The BUT is, too many depend on the technology when human override is required.  There are many stories of aircraft autopilots destroying the aircraft and killing all.  Why did the so-called pilot allowed that to happen?  Perhaps, they were not pilots but simply human observes of the technological aviators?

    One common human interaction with technology is the computer keyboard.  Often, we seek to type faster than the on-line system can accept our input.  Impatience, especially with online ‘lag’ prompts frustration and even anger.  Sometimes the result is a frozen system.

    Next

    Melvin taught this young field engineer how the real world worked.  Playing it forward, our interaction with technology is not a function of simply accepting what we are told, but understanding it uses and limitations.

    The human relationship with technology continues to evolve.  Not just IT but all manner of ways to make life better.  However, our relationship with it and how we RESPOND to it continues to evolve.

    For every ‘by the book,’ there is a Melvin who knows better.  Find your Melvin!

    How are you managing technology or is it managing you?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.

  • Radar: Technology Game Changer!

    Radar: Technology Game Changer!

    The battle of Leyte Gulf in 1944 with over 200,000 individuals involved is possibly the largest naval battle in history.  Hopefully, one of the last ones.

    In that battle, the submarine USS Darter initially detected (on radar) the Japanese task force early on October 23.  Other US naval vessels spotted that armada shortly thereafter on their radar screens.  This advanced knowledge enabled to US Navy to seize the initiative.  After the battle, the Japanese never stood up an equivalent naval force again.

    Technological advantage can be a game changer.  There is evidence of this phenomenon throughout history.  In this instance, the result was the elimination of the adversary’s ability to recover and reengage in a meaningful way.

    History’s Lessons

    Another game changer from that era was the proximity fuse developed by the Applied Physics Laboratory of Johns Hopkins University.  This technology enabled anti-aircraft rounds to explode within 75 feet of an attacking enemy aircraft instead of requiring physical contact which had a poor track record.  Referred to as, “The real secret weapon of World War II,” it is credited with shorting the war.

    Adversity has always led to rapid technological development.  There are indications that the Covid-19 pandemic is fueling an explosion of new ideas that directly address the infection as well as drive performance when the threat has passed.

    Capturing Value

    The conventional approach is to follow the Technology Adoption Life Cycle.  But is that still the realistic model today?  In our article published in 2004 Calculus of Value Model, we argue that the exact opposite is true.

    Advantage can go to those organizations that deploy technology early and codify knowledge obtained as a result.  The resulting ‘unfair advantage’ can change an industry.

    Previously we have made the case that while the concept of Minimum Viable Product aka MVP; a product that Early Adopters will find satisfactory, “The assessment of such technological solutions needs to be robust and thought through.  Not the knee jerk response often seen.”  Meaning that certain risks must be factored in the Value Proposition, but these can be manageable.

    According to Oracle’s Larry Ellison, “If you do everything that everyone else does in business, you’re going to lose.  The only way to really be ahead, is to ‘be different’.”  So Be Different—Start Early!

    How Can You Make New Technologies Your Organizational Game Changer?

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    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We are presenting, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event!!

    You can contact the author as well.

  • Data Bias: The Latent or Unobserved

    Data Bias: The Latent or Unobserved

    In statistics a Latent Variable can be defined as, ‘a variable inferred from observed or measured data.’ Its analysis is often used psychology, economics, and predictive modeling.  This author used Structural Equation Models (SEM) in his 1996 doctoral dissertation, Cross Cultural Negotiations Between Japanese and American Businessmen: A Systems Analysis (Exploratory Study).

    From that abstract, “The use of sophisticated statistical techniques such as structural equation modeling and game theory is becoming increasing more important.  Traditional techniques are known to be limited, particularly in the context of cross-cultural behavioral studies.”

    Survival Bias

    A recent LinkedIn post alerted this writer to the inimitable perspective statistician Abraham Wald brought to the assessment of World War II Allied bomber damage upon return from missions.  He argued that observed anti-aircraft damage was non-crippling since the aircraft remained airworthy and was able to return.

    He surmised that planes that did not come home may have suffered damage to other areas making them unairworthy and hence their data was unobserved.  Based on this analysis, the U.S. Navy beefed-up armor in the less or unaffected areas and this was credited with saving lives and aircraft.

    This type of analysis came to known as Survival Bias which has its proponents and detractors.  On the surface, it seemed intuitively obvious that areas of damage need addressing while not necessarily those statistically showing fewer issues.

    It is not our intent herein to assess its merits and applicability.  Rather to help readers better understand the very nature of big data and its use, especially in predictive and behavioral models.

    Covid-19

    Today, policy and other decision makers are tasked with dealing with a deadly global pathogen.  Apparently developing quickly and spreading exponentially—a super spreading event.  As of this writing has afflicted millions in 188 countries/region in much less than 12 months.

    In this pundit’s opinion, much of the concern, confusion and clearly wrong information regarding this disease and mitigation protocols can be traced to data collection and analysis.  By now most readers will have some familiarity with the chaos associated with these predictive models.

    For example, according to the US National Library of Medicine, National Institute of Health, “A key fact for us all to remember is that, for the majority of countries, we’re not actually counting how many people have the virus—instead were counting the reports of how many people have the virus, and, like all metrics, those numbers vary according to how they’re measured.  An increase in the number of tests being carried out will result in an increase in the number of infections detected.”

    In addition to the Herculean efforts to tame this tiger from the vast medical, scientific, technology and many other disciplines, Structural Equation Modeling is being used to shed additional light on the latent variables.

    Final Thoughts

    The 2020 Coronavirus is an early test of Big Data analysis in support of decision makers both for public policy and non-government organizations.  While performance so far has been weak, this pundit believes great value can come from this effort.

    Data quality must be highly reliable and valid.  Moreover, models must assess what is not seen, the latent variables such as found in Survival Bias.  These two aspects of strong decision support models are crucial.  These are lessons for all of us.

    Where Didn’t the Bullets Hit Your Business Model?

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    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We are presenting, Should Cross Cultural Serious https://rri-ccgame.com/Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely conference!!

    You can contact the author as well.

  • Technology Assessment in the Era of Minimum Viable Product (MVP)

    Technology Assessment in the Era of Minimum Viable Product (MVP)

    App developers have fallen in love with the concept of Minimum Viable Product aka MVP.  Wikipedia defines minimum viable product (MVP) as “a version of a product with just enough features to satisfy early customers and provide feedback for future product development.”

    This development model might make some sense for consumer software or even some business data analytics but how does it work for mission critical software and those apps that allow remote connectivity to those data resources?  MVP is problematic in these cases at best.

    Most mission critical software development organizations understand that robust testing is necessary, yet sometimes the specter of the MVP mentality sneaks its camel nose under the tent.  Think this does not happen?  Think again.

    The Boeing 737 Max 8 is one current example of this phenomena.  One can argue that the costs to this organization, its customers and the flying public have been astronomical and perhaps not measurable.

    Many of us will not be flying any time soon and many months ago this writer has been told by a knowledgeable individual that safe work around for the Max8 software issues have always been readily available—even before the crashes.  There is a more onerous issue that affects everyone on the planet is widely accepted by policy makers.

    We extend the construct of MVP to Minimum Viable Thought.  MVT is defined as, “The version of a decision that the decision makers believe will be accepted by organizational executives and public policy makers.”

    As of publication, this statement is posted on The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington.  “To construct our “Current projection” (the line that shows what we think will most likely happen), we assume that in each location the trend of easing mandates will continue at its current trajectory until the daily death rate reaches a threshold of 8 deaths per million.  If the daily death rate in a location exceeds that threshold, we are assuming that mandates will be reintroduced for a six-week period.”

    We do not dispute modelers making assumptions.  We do that same.  However, this caveat.  Decisions made based modeling assumptions such as these often lead to cataclysmic results.

    The concept of MVP can be a slippery slope.  In an era of rapid software/data release, the risk to the public whether in airplanes or a pandemic can be huge.

    The assessment of such technological solutions needs to be robust and thought through.  Not the knee jerk response often seen.

    How do you assure new technology implementation does not material negatively impact on your business?

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    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

  • Agility, Resiliency, Sustainability

    Agility, Resiliency, Sustainability

    In a recent Harvard Business Review, I was struck by an article about Best Practices for small businesses.  From that piece, “To successfully navigate Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous (VUCA) challenges like Covid-19, family business leaders can look to best practices from another organization that specializes in VUCA situations—the U.S. military’s Special Operations Forces (SOF)” (emphasis added).  There are a lot of good ideas in the article that organizations can implement immediately.  Moreover, we have long recognized that properly vetted and adjusted as necessary, Best Practices from others can add significant value to organizations in other industries.

    Out of the Darkness

    It is easy to be overwhelmed these days.  Mildly put, most if not all organizations were thrown into chaos in less than a month.  Depending on your business you are either partially operating or still waiting to open-up.

    Regardless, how you work in June will be different than early March (~60 days as of this writing).  Traditional recession management and recovery techniques may not be applicable this time.

    There are lots of ideas about how to use technology going forward.  Digitalization, IoT, IT-OT, among others are hawked as THE solution.  Problem is, it is not that simple, and it takes time and money to implement.  Many midsize firms do not have those privileges/resources.

    There are a lot of actions most organizations can take without major CAPEX investments in time and money.

    Years ago, we recognized that certain industrial sectors, particularly those with a high-risk profile such as energy or others deemed to be part of Critical Infrastructures face unique challenges.  Some have a tendency towards incremental change or even the status quo.  Change is often slow with setbacks.

    Moreover, for every major firm there can be thousands of organizations in the supply chain ecosystems all of which must work well if total costs and profitability for all are to be effectively addressed.

    This seemingly daunting task yet it need not be.  There is a solution set available that can help organizations manage through this dark period and into the light, thriving.

    The mission of The Rapid Response Institute is;

    “Helping Clients Achieve Organizational Agility, Resiliency and Sustainability”

    To that end, we have developed solutions, methodologies, and tools enabling enterprises of all sizes to not just survive but thrive after disruptive events.  Much of this is either free or at low cost.

    Rapid Response

    In our 2009 White Paper, Rapid Response Management: Thriving in the New World Order we posited our new approach to managing your business.  “Rapid Response Management (RRM) is an organizational construct or mental model that enables the organization and its key partners to rapidly sense changes and respond accordingly–quickly.  While it maximizes the effectiveness of management knowledge to address change, it is not simply gut feel.  Rather it is a simple yet sophisticated, methodical paradigm any organization can quickly and inexpensively implement.”

    RRM is a creative and well documented method for running your business.  The thinking was well advanced by 2009 and has been further ‘stress tested’ over the past decade.

    We have updated RRM with our Operational Excellence Platform and interested readers are invited to check that out as well.  Our offerings are designed to help our clients get through crises such as Covid-19.

    We are updating this white paper and it will be available as an e-book in the near future.  If you would like to reserve a free copy, Contact us.

    We are here to shed some light during this dark period.  For no cost, no obligation discussion contact us.  We can put decades of experience dealing with business cycle adversity on your team.

    Feel like your trapped?  You’re NOT!

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 on April 9, 2020.  The summit will be offered again soon.  Check it Out!!

    You can contact the author as well.

  • Disrupting Disruption!

    Disrupting Disruption!

    Let me understate, ‘working in the petroleum sector has always been challenging.’  Now we find ourselves in a major economic downturn caused by a Covid-19 pandemic and aided and abetted by an international crude oil price war.

    Once again, many thousands have lost their livelihood and possibly not return to a similar job as the industry consolidates and restructures both organizationally and operationally.  However, much has changed and for the better since this writer first experienced a major retraction in the 1980s.

    Back in the day, choices then included sending hundreds of hardcopy resumes hoping the right person would find/like it out of an overflowing inbox or leave the sector and look for better pastures.  Collectively, impacted individuals tried both.  Certainly, there was not a feeling that we were in command of our destiny, even if we knew someone who could help us.

    Today, we are the Master and Commander of our voyage!

    I See Things

    Visions of armies of energy workers becoming software programmers are probably hallucinations.  Some might but many will not have the ability, temperament or interest in such a feat.

    There are always winners and losers in any disruption.  Already, there are signs that the traditional retail sales processes are accelerating on a path they were already on.  Upscale restaurants now feature ‘take out.’

    Some who once worked for manufacturers, oil producers and other core companies will most likely find new careers with suppliers to those firms.  This may be especially true of supply chain, business process and technologies such as IT and engineering.  For example, operators will look to Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) and qualified suppliers to implement their Digitalization business models.

    Those with technical skills such as Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics (STEM) will be in demand for both recall to older business models but more likely to enable new ones.  Other emerging energy sectors include renewables and their derivatives.

    Entire, global business models are under scrutiny and change is inevitable.  Older sluggish companies will be replaced with new agile entrants.  Just look at how Amazon evolved from an online book seller to their current position.

    How to Disrupt

    What if I want to strike out?  For those who feel alone and not sure which way to turn, there is help available right now!  As far as I know everything listed below is at no cost and RRI knows these resources directly—no third parties.

    • “Esri, the global leader in location intelligence, announced that it would provide free access to its ArcGIS platform and training resources to professionals worldwide who are impacted by work furloughs during the COVID-19 outbreak.
    • Do you have a great idea for an energy-based startup company, but not sure where to start? I am on the leadership team of the Global Energy Mentors and we provide free mentoring services.  Check us out and you do not have to reside in the Houston metro area!
    • Looking for help from the Small Business Administration and again, don’t know who to call? Let us know and will put you in contact with the Houston office.
    • There are other opportunities available where we can help you. For example, the BBL Ventures Energy & Industrial Tech Challenge and Eunike Ventures it’s Alliance Partners are seeking innovative technologies via our 2020 Technology Open Call.  There are others as well and to date, the Innovation and Acceleration sector remains active.
    • Got a quick question? Contact us for 30 minutes of free online/email consulting limited to the first 50 and perhaps more.  We know of numerous additional resources and hopefully can direct you.

    Moreover, almost anyone can develop an App about any subject or issue.  What’s bugging you for which there is NO App or other solution?  Guess what, you now the Subject Matter Expert in that field.  Search App Development for all manor of free or low cost tools and help.

    Changes of the magnitude discussed herein can be daunting but there is no reason for any of us to fail in this transformation.  When faced with few or no options in your current career environment—What do you have to lose?

    Why let this disruption control you?  You control it!

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 on April 9, 2020.  The summit will be offered again soon.  Check it Out!!

    You can contact the author as well.