The Rapid Response Institute

Tag: cross cultural

Process Audit-Musk Style: A Systems Analysis Solution
“Auditing is defined as the on-site verification activity, such as inspection or examination, of a process or quality system, to ensure compliance to requirements.” Elon Musk has just changed the Auditing Game!

Most readers are aware that Elon Musk is leading a small task force of developers to assess the processes and spend of various federal government agencies, i.e., USAID. This pundit has been of the belief that this group is using Artificial Intelligence (AI) to address this, as he did when assessing the proposed budget in December 2024.
Observers were astonished with the speed and accuracy of this AI driven assessment. Gone are the days of thousands of pages of unreadable bills where congressional leaders demand instantaneous passage in the ‘wee hours’ of night. No more, “We have to pass the bill so that you can find out what is in it.”
Too Big to Fail, No More!
The long-standing mantra for major, critical sectors such as Money Center Banks is that they are too big and too important to be allowed to fail. By this logic, US federal government agencies are at the top of that very short list.
Assuming the following post on 𝕏 is factual, Musk and company have the developed the basis of a new company. One that will restructure the way auditing is conducted for large complex organizations.
The EKO article is a quick and compelling read, and we will not repost here. Key take aways, this pundit took include that crawling through decades of data:
Three subsystems were mapped quickly as were payment flows across agencies. Patterns were revealed that even career individuals did not know existed
$17 billion in redundant programs were detected and are growing
“The beautiful thing about payment systems,” noted a transition official watching their screens, “is that they don’t lie. You can spin policy all day long, but money leaves a trail.”
“That trail led to staggering discoveries. Programs marked as independent revealed coordinated funding streams. Grants labeled as humanitarian aid showed curious detours through complex networks. Black budgets once shrouded in secrecy began to unravel under algorithmic scrutiny.”
“By 6 AM, Treasury’s career officials began arriving for work. They found systems they thought impenetrable already mapped. Networks they believed hidden already exposed. Power structures built over decades revealed in hours.”
“Their traditional defenses—slow-walking decisions, leaking damaging stories, stonewalling requests—proved useless against an opponent moving faster than their systems could react. By the time they drafted their first memo objecting to this breach, three more systems had already been mapped.”
The list goes on, but readers get the point and can do their own detailed review. Also, one expects that much more will be made public in the near future.
https://t.co/8Yp9lZ9XE2
— EKO (@EkoLovesYou) February 6, 2025

Graphic is taken from the linked 𝕏 article.

Value Proposition to ‘We the People’
Bureaucrats are hired hands. The citizens of the United States of America are the client. Some argue that government is different than a profit or non-profit organization. But is it? Isn’t government responsible for delivering goods and services in accordance with its customers wishes? If not, what is the role of Washington, DC and every state capital?
This pundit has focused on Operational Excellence (OE). We have developed economic models that document (with support) measurable as well as soft value that can be attained and sustained from OE initiatives. We believe this approach is applicable to governmental agencies as well.
Nature of Auditing
According to the American Society for Quality (ASQ), Auditing has three components:
Process Audit–Verification that processes are working within established limits
Product Audit–Assess whether or not products and services conform to accepted standards and requirements
System Audit–Assessment of management systems, i.e., Operations Management Systems (OMS)
The principal objective of the systems analysis phase is the specification of what the system needs to do to meet the requirements of end users. Isn’t what Musk has done the holistic integration of data acquisition and initial assessment of the three components of an Audit?
There are no longer three components (four if one included financial reporting) but ONE. Not just Game Changing but the Creative Destruction of the esteemed auditing profession.
Future Role of Professional Services
This writer’s career spans the gulf of large software development teams to the configuration using tools by as few as one individual. This is a pattern many processes deal with, for example fast food, discrete manufacturing, energy exploration, medical and others.
Jobs are retooled and affected individuals find careers elsewhere and by the way, you’re never too old. Millions of individuals in the private sector have met this challenge and some more than once.
Apparently, Musk only had four (4) IT types working on this DOGE project. Certainly, others had to assess his findings and make decision, but the data acquisition was inexpensive and fast.
This suggests massive and wrenching changes to the professional services status quo. Smaller, focused with fewer billable hours compensated teams. The upside, this may lead to a Value Pricing Model.
Musk Auditing LLC?
Has Elon launched another company with the high visibility first customer? This pundit thinks so. And what a demo!
“The US Auditing Services Market size is estimated at USD 51.88 billion in 2025, and is expected to reach USD 60.94 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 3.27% during the forecast period (2025-2030).” I rest my case. Then there is the Rest of the World!
One lesson for all of us; any profession can be instantly made irrelevant with emerging technologies and the will power of new entrants. At all costs, stay ahead of the curve.

How will your organization deal with this game changer?

Pre order our new book
Navigating the Data Minefields:
Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making
We are living in an era of data and software exponential growth. A substantive flood hitting us every day. Geek heaven!  But what if information technology is not your cup of tea and you may even have your kids help with your smart devices? This may not be a problem at home; however, what if you job depends on Big Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI)?
Available April 2025

Ordering Information

For More Information
Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein. They are provided for education and entertainment only.
See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.
The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page. Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is the coauthor of the 2023 book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.” His focus is on Operational Technologies.
We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be released by CRC Press in April 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).
“People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross-Cultural Serious Game. You can contact this author as well.
For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg and his book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.
Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.
For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts. If interested, check it out and give me a shout.
February 10, 2025
Can Machines Think?
In 1950, the mathematician Alan Turing put forth this question. Rather than attempt to answer it using conventional logic, he proposed a new disruptive model–the Imitation Game.
The Problem
One can look at Alan Turing (1912-1954) as the “father of theoretical computer science and artificial intelligence.” His contributions to modern computer science cannot be understated. He posited whether computers could one day have the cognitive capabilities of humans. Some argue that day has arrived. Yet, how do we know?
The Turing Game
The Imitation Game is played by three people (humans).
(A) a Man,
(B) a Woman, and
(C) an Interrogator (of either gender)
The Interrogator, segregated into a separate room, is to determine which of the two players is the man and which is the woman.
The interrogator askes the two players (known only as “X and Y” or “Y and X”) a series of questions, the answers to which are written or passed through an intermediary so as not to expose the player’s gender.
The role of Player (B) is to assist (C) determine the gender of (A), while (A) is to deceive (C).
However,
“What will happen when a machine takes the part of A in this game? Will the interrogator decide wrongly as often when the game is played like this as he does when the game is played between a man and a woman? These questions replace our original, Can Machines Think?“
In his paper, Turing goes to elaborate in detail but for our purposes, the bottom line.
Will the error rate from a human only decision process be the same as when a machine (digital decision maker) become one of the players?
Early AI and the Turing Test
In 1955, McCarthy and Shannon, along with Marvin Minsky and Nathaniel Rochester, defined the AI problem as, “that of making a machine behave in ways that would be called intelligent if a human were so behaving. In 2013, when asked about Turing’s test in a taped interview, Minsky said, ‘The Turing test is a joke, sort of, about saying a machine would be intelligent if it does things that an observer would say must be being done by a human.’” This materially connects the early definition of the AI problem to Turing’s test.
Our intent here is not to split academic hairs but to put forth this concept that predates most readers and is typically not a subject of serious discussion. The point being that the problem was documented 75 years ago or earlier and this pioneering thinking is the basis of our contemporary definition and implementation of Artificial Intelligence.
Before Turing
In one sense, we all stand on the shoulders of giants who preceded us. “When you think about the origins of computer science, the name Ada Lovelace might not come to mind immediately—but it should. Born in 1815, Ada Lovelace was an English mathematician and writer whose visionary work laid the foundation for modern computing. Collaborating with Charles Babbage (considered to be the father of computing), the inventor of the Analytical Engine, Lovelace wrote what is widely recognized as the first algorithm designed for a machine.”
“Ada was the first to explicitly articulate this notion and in this she appears to have seen further than Babbage. She has been referred to as ‘prophet of the computer age‘. Certainly, she was the first to express the potential for computers outside mathematics.” In the computer Familia, we might also want to think of her as the grandmother of computing.
Other women who played a major role in the evolution of Artificial Intelligence (after Turing) include Navy Rear Admiral Grace Hopper, the inventor of the first compiler for a programming language as well as other innovations. Many others made significant contributions. No doubt women will continue to play a vital role with this game changing technology.

The Solution(s)
Twelve years have passed since Minsky’s statement that the Turing test is a joke. Today’s artificial intelligence capability has changed that landscape.
The argument becomes, not can ‘we’ meet the Turing test, but how far and fast will it be eclipsed. This suggests exciting times with associated challenges and risks.
Contemporary Thinking about the Test

“As AI systems are increasingly deployed in high-stakes scenarios, we may need to move beyond aggregate metrics and static benchmarks of input–output pairs, such as the Beyond the Imitation Game Benchmark (BIG-bench). We should be prepared to evaluate an AI’s cognitive abilities in a way that resembles the realistic settings in which it will be used. This can be done with modern Turing-Like Tests.” As shown in the following figure.

“Looking ahead, Turing-like AI testing that would introduce machine adversaries and statistical protocols to address emerging challenges such as data contamination and poisoning. These more rigorous evaluation methods will ensure AI systems are tested in ways that reflect real-world complexities, aligning with Turing’s vision of sustainable and ethically guided machine intelligence.”

Computer Game Bot Turing Test
“The computer game bot Turing test is a variant of the Turing test, where a human judge viewing and interacting with a virtual world must distinguish between other humans and video game bots, both interacting with the same virtual world. This variant was first proposed in 2008 by Associate Professor Philip Hingston of Edith Cowan University, and implemented through a tournament called the 2K BotPrize.”
This pundit believes that the Turning test dam has been broken, and greater things lie ahead.

Today’s Father of AI – Geoffrey Hinton, The Nobel Prize in Physics 2024
“When we talk about artificial intelligence, we often mean machine learning using artificial neural networks. This technology was originally inspired by the structure of the brain. In an artificial neural network, the brain’s neurons are represented by nodes that have different values. In 1983–1985, Geoffrey Hinton used tools from statistical physics to create the Boltzmann machine, which can learn to recognize characteristic elements in a set of data. The invention became significant, for example, for classifying and creating images.”
Together with John J. Hopfield, they used physics to find patterns in information. Dr. Hinton has expressed some concerns regarding his (AI) child as he states in the following interview from October 9, 2023.

Theoretical Basis of Tests
In this pundit’s opinion, the Turing test used Game Theory as a fundamental underpinning. A later theory, Relationships, Behaviors and Conditions enables newer derivatives of the original Turing Test as well as supports different approaches to the problem. These theories are briefly described.
Finally, it is not necessary to read this section, as these details are provided for completeness and to support the position taken. We understand that this level of detail is not for every reader.
Over the past few years, there has been an impassioned argument regarding ‘The Science.” We addressed this issue in 2020, and the following paragraph is taken from that Blog, They Blinded Me with Science.
“According to Scientific American, Scientific claims are falsifiable—that is, they are claims where you could set out what observable outcomes would be impossible if the claim were true—while pseudo-scientific claims fit with any imaginable set of observable outcomes. What this means is that you could do a test that shows a scientific claim to be false, but no conceivable test could show a pseudo-scientific claim to be false.
Sciences are testable, pseudo-sciences are not.”
There is academic peer reviewed agreement that both Game Theory and RBC hypotheses are testable.
Game Theory
Concurrent with Turing’s Imitation Game development, game theory was being formalized as an approach towards economic behavior modeling among economic ‘rational’ actors.
“Game theory emerged as a distinct subdiscipline of applied mathematics, economics, and social science with the publication in 1944 of Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, a work of more than six hundred pages written in Princeton by two Continental European emigrés, John von Neumann, a Hungarian mathematician and physicist who was a pioneer in fields from quantum mechanics to computers, and Oskar Morgenstern, a former director of the Austrian Institute for Economic Research. They built upon analyses of two-person, zero-sum games published in the 1920s.” This treatise was developed from the works of other pioneers of the 1920s and 1930s.
An interesting side note, “The software industry is a little over half a century old (in 2005), but its roots date back to the textile loom programming of the seventeenth century that powered the Charles Babbage Difference Engine. In 1946, ENIAC (Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer), the first large-scale general-purpose electronic computer built at the University of Pennsylvania, ushered in the modern computing era.
That same year (1946), John von Neumann coauthored a paper, Preliminary Discussion of the Logical Design of an Electronic Computing Instrument. The von Neumann general purpose architecture defines the process of executing a continuous cycle of extracting an instruction from memory, processing it, and storing the results has been used by programmers ever since.“(1)
Perhaps, this is part of the collision of the two major breakthroughs: Game Theory and the modern Computer Architecture.
In 1996, this author’s doctoral dissertation, Cross Cultural Negotiations between Japanese and American Businessmen: A Systems Analysis, (Exploratory Study) was “An exploratory test of this framework in the context of two-person zero-sum simulated negotiation between Japanese businessmen and American salesmen, both living and working in the United States. The integration of structural (game theory) and process theories (RBC) into a dynamic systems model seeks to better understand the nature of complex international negotiations. Advanced statistical techniques, such as structural equation modeling are useful tools providing insight into these negotiation dynamics.”
This work is the basis for the Cloud based Serious Games used to train Cross Cultural Teams.

Relationships, Behaviors and Conditions (RBC) Framework
This model has been part of numerous this pundit’s writings since 1996. A brief overview from a 2011 article follows.
“The Relationships, Behaviors, and Conditions (RBC) model was originally developed to address issues around cross cultural (international) negotiation processes. Relationships are the focal point of this perspective, reflecting commonality of interest, balance of power and trust as well as intensity of expressed conflict.
Behavior in this model is defined as a broad term including multidimensions – intentional as well as unintentional. Finally, Conditions are defined as active and including circumstances, capabilities and skills of the parties, culture, and the environment. Of course, time is a variable in this model as well.
One key feature of the R B C Framework is its emphasis on interactive relationships while providing an environment for multiple levels of behavioral analysis. This makes it a useful tool to better understand the new regulatory processes currently unfolding. As we will see later, the number of constituents now engaged belays the use of simplistic linear decision models.”(2)
Operational Excellence
The following excerpt from our 2017 Blog, Excellent Behaviors: Assessing Relationships in the Operational Excellence Ecosystem addresses the role of the RBC Framework in organizational excellence.
“One of the hot business buzzwords of 2017 is “Operational Excellence.” It has been the subject for many pundits, including this one.
In October and November we published a two-part series, Assuring Operational Excellence from Contractors and Their Subcontractors through BTOES Insights. Each part included a link to additional information.
The October edition featured an excerpt of our Implementing a Culture of Safety book. In the November edition we released our new Best Practice solution, Attaining & Sustaining Operational Excellence: A Best Practice Implementation Model. We are proud to make it available herein and in general.
One of the basic tenets of the RBC Framework is the general construct that Relationships cannot be determined a priori. The well-used example is a man and a woman sitting on a bench at a bus stop. Are they married, siblings, coworkers, friends or simply two people waiting to catch the same/different bus?
Their relationship cannot be known directly. However, their Behaviors will provide insight into how they relate to each other. Romantic behavior may indicate marriage, dating, an affair etc. They may still be coworkers but most likely are not strangers.
The third dimension, Conditions (environment) can be considered the stage upon which behaviors play. So, what does this have to do with Operational Excellence?
Another component of our digital environment is Human Systems Integration (HSI). In our forthcoming book, we have defined HSI as, “Human Systems Integration (HSI) considers the following seven domains: Manpower, Personnel, Training, Human Factors Engineering, Personnel Survivability, Habitability, and Environment, Safety and Occupational Health (ESOH). In simple terms, HSI focuses on human beings and their interaction with hardware, software, and the environment.”

We have crossed the Turing Rubicon. How will your organization capitalize on these Opportunities?
Hardcopy References
Shemwell, Scott M. (2005). Disruptive Technologies—Out of the Box. Essays on Business and Information Technology Alignment Issues of the Early 21st Century. New York: Xlibris. p. 127.
_______ (2011, January). The Blast Heard Around the World. Petroleum Africa Magazine. pp. 32-35.
Pre order our new book
Navigating the Data Minefields:
Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making
We are living in an era of data and software exponential growth. A substantive flood hitting us every day. Geek heaven!  But what if information technology is not your cup of tea and you may even have your kids help with your smart devices? This may not be a problem at home; however, what if you job depends on Big Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI)?
Available April 2025

Ordering Information

For More Information
Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein. They are provided for education and entertainment only.
See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.
The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page. Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is the coauthor of the 2023 book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.” His focus is on Operational Technologies.
We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be released by CRC Press in April 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).
“People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross-Cultural Serious Game. You can contact this author as well.
For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg and his book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.
Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.
For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts. If interested, check it out and give me a shout.
January 19, 2025
Operational Excellence Enabled by Leadership in Technology
In 2025, our new book, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making will be released by CRC Press. This is an accompanying book to our 2023 book, Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.
Both books focus on the use of advanced information technologies to attain and sustain Operational Excellence. Today, organizations are drinking from a firehose of advanced solutions such as Big Data, Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, Business Intelligence, Virtual Reality, Digital Twins and much more.
Moreover, the roles of executives at all levels are changing. It is no longer satisfactory to leave major decision to Chief Technology/Digital/Information types. Everyone has a stake in these (in some case $100 million or more, bet you company decisions). For example,
The business need must be identified, verified and a detailed plan put in place to acquire and implement the technology of choice.
Is this aligned with organizational objectives?
How will these new technologies integrate into existing systems, if at all?
Does the organization have the maturity to undertake this process? In other words, is it culturally ready and if not, what must be done to get ready? Examples include upskilling the workforce, what new skills will be needed and so forth.
The list is lengthy and detailed which is further explained the new book mentioned. Additionally, what role do non-IT executives play in this process. The Blogger believes is it no longer satisfactory to outsource the future ‘core competencies’ to the technology staff or key third parties, including Systems Integrators. The so-called experts. What agendas do these parties have and are they aligned with the organization mission and strategy?
Bet Your Career
These advanced and emerging and sometimes very immature software solutions will touch every division, department and individual employees as well at the organizational ecosystem. Poor performance will end careers and possibly organizations. As always, there will be winners and losers, both at the organization level as well as individuals.
We could go on, but readers get the point. This is game-changing for industry sectors, organizations including government agencies and finally for individuals. Big decisions will need to be made and soon.
What are you doing to prepare of this transformational tsunami?

For More Information
Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein. They are provided for education and entertainment only.
See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.
The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page. Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the just published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.” His focus is on Operational Technologies.
We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be published by CRC Press in 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making. This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).
“People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962). For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game. You can contact this author as well.
For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.
Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.
For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts. If interested, check it out and give me a shout.
November 9, 2024
Fake Science

“I would rather have questions that can’t be answered than answers that can’t be questioned.” – Richard Feynman

“I am the science.” You have got to be kidding me Mr. Fauci. Clearly, you have no training in the Scientific Method or maybe your just plan arrogant. Home many lives have you and you colleagues destroyed, you fake scientist?
As an actual degreed physicist, I have published here and other media on the process ‘real’ scientists take to address new phenomena. Yet a singular medical doctor, not a degreed scientist claims the godlike mantel of ‘I am science?’
Welcome to 21st Century quackery. In his testimony before Congress, “Dr. Fauci reaffirmed shocking testimony that the ‘six feet apart’ social distancing recommendation that he promoted was arbitrary, not based on science, and ‘sort of just appeared.’” Science? NOT!! Do I hear leaches and blood letting are next?
Trillions and Trillions and Trillions
Untold lives and treasure has been destroyed by the Covid-19 quacks. Not just MD types but a complacent media and hapless governments (politicians as well as regulators) at all levels.
I am not a Covid denier. Yes, many got sick and too many died, but we are now learning is that a so call ‘medical’ approach to this problem was based on NOTHING real! Moreover, it appears that senior officials at the National Health Institute knowingly lied to us repeatedly.
Let me see if I understand this, a US funded research institute focused on ‘gain of function‘ released the Covid or it came from a bat? Readers can make their own decision.
Pockets were padded and many had their (more) than fifteen minutes of fame. What did the rest of us get? Lost jobs, closed (forever) small businesses, and now ‘oh joy’ inflation due to government largess.

The National Institute of Health appears to have put in place a systematic procedure to foil Freedom of Information Act requests. Our right to know and have oversight that limits the ability of dictatorships to emerge was compromised.
The arrogance and disgust which these so called public service hold us, the public is beyond the pail. But not to worry they are all multimillionaires working on GS 15 (~ $180,000) salaries. They must get great investment advice.
The old saying about reality is applicable, “If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it just may be a duck.” Or it may be a MD policy wonk from the government that is ‘here to help or destroy your life.’ Remember how those who questioned the conventional wisdom were treated/abused?
Bring in the mandatory masks. No less than the conservative (lol) AL JAZEERA reports that key Covid players now question the value of masks we were all forced to wear. Fascism!

What the world was put through for years by dictatorial medical types and the fake media that took down other opinions and approaches is appalling. Jail time is too good for these liars as they got rich. Next time they come up with the crap they should be run out of town as they have not earned any respect.
Have you put your liar detector in place when the fake government arrives and says ‘we are here to help/mandate?’

For More Information
Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein. They are provided for education and entertainment only.
See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.
The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page. Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the just published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.” His focus is on Operational Technologies.
“People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962). For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game. You can contact this author as well.
For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.
Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.
For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts. If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

June 5, 2024
Artificial Stupidity

Listen closely and pay attention as our menu has changed.

The frustration to the automated phone operator are legend. All of us have had our issues with this form of (non) customer service.
Recently this pundit placed a call at a number provided by the vendor and went though all the (voice) menu items, only to hit the ‘other’ button. At this point, I was advised to dial the number I already had.  So much for Artificial Intelligence (AI) and welcome to the era of Artificial Stupidity.
Firms are all jumping on the AI bandwagon, even though the technology is immature at best. Sound like the dot.com bomb of a quarter of a century ago. One wonders, what damage to their brand are the organizations incurring?
Enter the MVP Mindset
In recent years the software development sector has ‘Dumbing Down’ the level of product commerciality. Minimum Viable Product or MVP can be defined as, “The version of a new product which allows a team to collect the maximum amount of validated learning about customers with the least effort.” Used to be called BETA in the good old days. Now MVP is often seen as THE commercially released product.  Dah, hence the issues, frustration and lack of credibility in so-called AI solutions.
All Things AI
As mentioned, AI is all the rage. Much like a fashion statement. everyone is jumping on that bandwagon. But does it work? Moreover, it encompasses a large spectrum of operations.
Basically, anything that need big data crunching. Yet crunching numbers is only interesting at best. What problem is being solved? This is where the weakness continues. Algorithms are only as good as their author. Some argue machines will take over this task, but one doubts anytime soon. For example, jet engine commercial airlines are over 65 years old but increasingly seem to have construction/maintenance issues. What makes us think this technology will be any different? The Technology Adoption curve can be very lengthy and full of potholes.
The judicious use of commercial quality software makes the most sense. Just because every one is doing it is not a shareholder value added. In many cases a sloppy approach actually decreases equity value.
What is your organization’s approach to new technology and how does it add value?

For More Information
Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein. They are provided for education and entertainment only.
See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.
The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page. Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the just published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.” His focus is on Operational Technologies.
“People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game. You can contact this author as well.
For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.
Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.
For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts. If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

March 11, 2024
All Is Not Quiet

Organizational Conflict may not be visible. Passive Aggressive executives may not exhibit the classic signs of stress.

The stresses of everyday business are well understood by those in that mix. Each individual has an agenda based on his/her personal desires as well as organizational job description and target (goal) requirements.
By definition, this puts all in an organization conflict situation. Moreover, this is not necessarily a negative environment. Stress between individuals and division can lead to synergies beyond the immediate.
This so-called Tension at the Margin concept is taken from the physical construct Surface Tension, a relationship between two different substances such as water and air. In other words, there is always a bit of tension or stress between two or more different entities–living or inanimate.
The problem manifests itself when conflict becomes counter productive. Political agendas overtake the goals of the organization and individuals see themselves as superior to the organizations of which they are employed. We first addressed this issue in our 1994 peer reviewed article, Organizational Conflict and Dispute Resolution.

Managed stress can add significant value; we see this in competitive sports everyday. Unmanaged stress can lead to a cardiac event both personally and organizationally.
How is your organization managing its Tension at the Margin?

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Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein. They are provided for education and entertainment only.
See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.
The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page. Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the just published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.” His focus is on Operational Technologies.
“People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962). For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game. You can contact this author as well.
For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.
Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our recent blog, Crippling Green.
For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts. If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

December 29, 2023
Sun Sets in the West: Science or Commentary?

One newscaster recently used the metaphor of the sun setting in the west as settled science so contrary views were not newsworthy. His argument–Fairness is Over Rated! What? One wonders whether this is true for those who believe the world is round or for those in the Flat Earth Society?

Yet most political commentary and views are not so apparent. Politicians and pundits constantly refer to ‘so-called’ settled science only to have new information surface. Moreover, we know how to test theories using the Scientific Method. Sadly, outside of formal academic style research this tool does not appear to be in vogue these days.

Sun Set

We learn the truism that the sun rises in the east in the morning and sets in the west (slightly seasonally adjusted). In fact, this calendar and timing have been known for several millennia. This process is measurable and repeatable. This phenomenon is supported by empirical data taken from experimentation and observation. The data is valid (accurate) and reliable (repeatable). Therefore, it follows that the knowledge of the sun setting in the west is based on science.

In My Opinion . . .

The 24/7 news cycle bombards us all with “Breaking News,” often several days after its occurrence. In their rush to get the ‘scoop‘ facts are not available at the time, overlooked or deliberately mangled or omitted. We are told that such and such is settled fact. And then it isn’t!

When one puts forth a position that while may be based on the certainty of one’s perspective on a matter, it often does not meet the test of the Scientific Method. By definition, this type of statement is a viewpoint or a sentiment. However, it can take on the mantle of science but is really Pseudo-Science as the hypothesis cannot be proved false.

One’s perspective or cognitive bias on a given subject can lead to the development of an organizational, policy, political or social agenda designed to sway thinking and thus support the development and implementation of initiatives designed to operationalize said ideas. Proponents often couch their position as “The Science.”

Contemporary Decisions

Our world is awash with significant economic and social challenges. Whether ESG, Covid-19, Climate Change or Inflation everyone has an opinion with data and/or studies to support their positions.

Consumers/Policy Makers/Decision Makers of these information will have to assess their value. How valid and reliable are the positions taken and what is the uncertainty and risk associated with their implementation?

The basis of all decisions include a level of incomplete or incorrect data. This phenomenon is where the military phase, “No plan survives first contact with the enemy” comes from.

So, it is with the confrontations of these four global issues. A robust discussion of the various points-of-view and their basis is necessary. Why is this not happening?

When statements that the ‘consensus’ of vast majority of experts/scientists is blah blah blah are made, this should be a major red flag. The statement that the ‘sun sets in the west’ has a significant body of knowledge behind it. There is a level of uncertainty with most other prognostications.

Louis Pasteur is credited with the statement, “Chance favors the prepared mind.” This is just as true today as when he was developing vaccines for the anthrax and rabies scourges of his day.

The best decisions are made even when controversial such as with Pasteur’s vaccines. Eisenhower’s decision about D-day had similar attributes of uncertainty and risk.

The United States, indeed the world has embarked on a multi-trillion dollar effort to solve the so-called existential threat of global warming. Politically charged, one wonders if any of the proponents and doomsayers are basing their positions on actual science.

How DARE THEY push false agendas that cost so much and will destroy economies. How DARE THEY!!

Are your organization’s decisions based on science or just someone’s opinion?

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Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein. They are provided for education and entertainment only.

The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.

“People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962). For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game. You can contact this author as well.

For more information regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

For those start-up firms addressing energy challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts. If interested, check it out and give us a shout.

August 1, 2022
A Windy Position
In a recent online discussion, this pundit put forth the thought that fiberglass wind turbine blades can pose an environmental problem when decommissioned. This position was quickly challenged with the rebuttal that burning coal ‘kills’ kids so it did not matter if discarded blades litter the countryside as it is worth it.

According to research quoted by the European Wind Energy Association, “With wind turbine blades likely to account for some 50,000 tons of waste annually by 2020, growing 4 times by 2034 the landfill is not a viable long-term solution.” Moreover, “Findings from the University of Strathclyde indicate a global increase of wind turbine blade waste from around 400,000 tons per annum in 2030 to around two million tons by 2050.”

My rebuttal to the kills kids argument–what will this do to global population health? Keep in mind, this is only one source of industrial (and consumer, i.e., EV automobiles) decommissioned assets.

Disposal/Recycling

“Glass-reinforced polymer composites (GRP), used in wind turbine blades around the world, is recognized as a hard-to-break-down source of pollution.” Research is underway to address this problem and mostly likely progress will continue going forward.

“Currently only a few recycling techniques are available to treat such an enormous quantity. So most have been landfilled and many continue to be buried today.” Other current options include:
- Grinding–turning fiberglass into powder. A labor intensive process that provides filler for other purposes
- Incineration–the ash is usually disposed of in a landfill
- Pyrolysis–decomposes into three recoverable substances: pyro-gas, pyro-oil, and solid byproduct— all of which can be recycled
“While the overall life of the wind turbine does cause less pollution than coal-fired power plants do, the initial solution of just burying the fiberglass doesn’t seem in line with the goal to cause less pollution.” (Ibid)

Really? How is this saving the planet?

Clearly, these alternative disposal processes have a financial cost greater than simply burying the blades. If not, they would be used more frequently.

Future generations will have to address this issue much like the current one continues to deal with asbestos from the past. The KIDS will end up dealing with and paying for the folly of their parents and grandparents.

A Contrarian Posture

As noted, there is a romanticism about renewable energy sources, most commonly wind and solar. However, we believe in the ‘no free lunch’ model. There are risks and cost associated with every form of energy.

In two recent editions, Heavy Metal Rocks and Going Green? Or NOT! we took an initial look at the financial cost over the renewable lifecycle as well the environmental impact that will need to be addressed. The edition is a continuation of the premise that, “Technology Romance must be met with Fiscal Realities.”

Society will eventually recognize the environmental damage done by solar and wind energy systems can be very high. By then, the harm may have been done.

As an example, many oil and gas assets are approaching end of life. The decommission costs are very high and increasingly regulations are changing to hold asset owners accountable for these costs. Generally, accountants refer to these as Reserves.

Shouldn’t renewable asset holders be required to set aside reserves to cover the disposal of assets as well?

Lifecycle Cost Structure

For capital assets with significant planning, development, manufacture, deployment, operations & maintenance and finally decommissioning costs there is another dimension. The Asset Maturity Model was developed to assist management understand how to best maximize asset performance over decades, in some cases. This model is integrated into an economic value model which we be discussed herein. There are also a number of tools and standards available to assist management, such as ISO 55001–Asset Management.

In April 2022, Bloomberg published a piece, “Wind Power’s ‘Colossal Market Failure Threatens Climate Fight.” The Global Wind Energy Council deemed the current wind energy situation a ‘Colossal Market Failure.’

Blaming a mismatch (alignment) between governments policies and current markets, the risk is not only that net zero targets will not be met but the supply chain is contracting. Moreover, one study suggests that for the US net-zero policies will cost more than 12% of our Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2050. To put this in perspective, today Social Security cost 5% of GDP and Medicare/Medicaid 6.4 percent–11.4% combined.

The ‘lack of alignment‘ is a major determent to successful organizations. In our recent blog, ESG Explained we discussed the role organization and its ecosystem governance at length. Building on our 2011 monograph, Asset/Equipment Integrity Governance: Operations–Enterprise Alignment; A Case for Board Oversight (AEIG) we developed the case for Operational Excellence as part of ESG. Energy and supply chain management are key components of this enterprise approach.

Total Cost of Ownership (TCO)

TCO is a function of the acquisition cost, including all engineering, design, deployment, installation etc. as well as ALL costs associated with its lifecycle OPEX, including decommissioning, abandonment, and environment remediation. It is all encompassing. It is the long-standing metric that all projects must understand and model accordingly before a Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) is authorized.

The following list are documented per citation links. These are taken from a recent article challenging the Return on Investment (ROI) of current green initiatives.

Readers will note that some are social costs, i.e., transition costs to new energy sources currently provide minuscule contributions to the Energy Basket. These costs will grow dramatically going forward.
- “Making a transition from fossil fuels to green energy is costly. Solar and wind can only deliver electricity, which accounts for less than a fifth of total energy consumption.
- When the sun doesn’t shine or the wind doesn’t blow, prices rise quickly and we have to revert to fossil fuels for backup.
- Batteries are inadequate and expensive, easily quadrupling solar electricity costs and failing to provide much power.
- In 2021, Europe only had battery capacity to backup less than 1 ½ minutes of its average electricity usage. By 2030, with 10 times the stock of batteries, and somewhat more usage needed, they’ll have enough for 12 minutes.
- The Bank of America has found that achieving net-zero will cost $150 trillion over 30 years, almost twice the combined annual GDP of every country on Earth.
- The annual cost of $5 trillion is more than all the world’s governments and households spend every year on education.
- In a new study, McKinsey finds most of the poorest nations in Africa would have to pay more than 10 percent of their total national incomes every year toward climate policy. This is more than these nations combined spend on education and health.
- Reducing emissions just 80% will cost the United States more than $2.1 trillion every year from 2050, or more than $5,000 per person, per year.
- The annual US cost of World War II is estimated at $1 trillion in today’s money. Every year by 2050, climate policy could cost Americans more than twice what they paid during the Second World War.
- Surveys show few people are willing to spend more than a few hundred dollars a year on climate policies. Asking people to spend tens or hundreds times more is a recipe for failure.”
These are significant tangible and intangible costs. In this writer’s opinion, the business case has not been made for these and other total cost line items. A more extensive study should be considered by readers who want to do a deep dive on these economics.

Keep in mind, that these broader issues do not take into consideration regarding daily operations and maintenance. These must be factored in as well.

Finally, while these are ‘opinions’ from reputable sources, why are they not considered the economic models used today? Seems like Data Bias, doesn’t it.

EVPM

Beginning in 2004, recognizing many of the TCO components as well as the economic value potential from a CAPEX, we developed what came to be known as our Economic Value Proposition Matrix model (EVPM). This model is now mature, robust as well as integrating a Risk Matrix.

It is an excellent tool for assessing both Tangible and Intangible components of value and cost. Additionally, a free version is available and it is fully supported with training as well as other materials (including a video).

Importantly, EVPM “Translates technology into the Language of Business” which make it an excellent tool for preparing to meet with the Chief Financial Officer (CFO) and/or Budget Committee. Management makes decisions as a function of the risk associated economic value brought to the organization. While technology has a level of romance to it, financial issues are the major decision making driver.

The Energy Basket

It is useful to look past the hype to see what the US energy basket actually looks like. Slightly over three percent comes from wind and only 1.3 % is solar. Fossil fuels (petroleum natural gas and coal) represent 79% of our current energy consumption. In the opinion of this writer these disparities have been basically the same for decades.

China and India burn 14 million tons of coal per day! By all accounts, coal will play a major role in power production in these economies for some time to come. As a function of the global percentage of coal used; China over 50%, India over 11% and the United States at approximately 8.5%. Moreover, an assessment of its use by 130 countries is available to interested readers.

The debate about ‘Clean Coal‘ continues. None-the-Less, most likely coal will continue to be used for decades. Keep in mind that 2050 is less than 28 year away.

While regulation plays a role in the energy mix, economics are the fundamental driver. Until the economics of non fossil fuels change, the basket will most likely not.

The Lone Ranger is Missing

Listening to some, it seems that all we have to do is focus on the Energy Transformation and in only a few short years magic will happen. Hate to tell everyone, there is no Silver Bullet. Transformation will take decades and should be led by those driven by market forces.

One example, on April 29, 2022 the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDot) announced the two year closure of a major highway artery in the Houston metropolitan area to replace a concrete ramp. Point being, road construction is well understood and a major proven technology and process. Still, it will take a significant amount of time to perform this upgrade.

How can we assume a major Energy Transformation using new technologies will unfold as optimistic parties suggest? History suggests this is not likely.

Closing Points

This long time energy careerist believes that various energy sources from the basket should be used as economically appropriate. While we all have an interest in a low pollution environment, if the economics as shown in this piece are close to correct, the resulting economic damage may be greater than a somewhat warmer planet.

The data presented herein are documented. The sources and quality of the data can be challenged but it should not be ignored.

Finally, this piece has focused primarily on wind energy. A similar analysis needs to be taken for every energy source including fossil fuels of all kinds.

The demand for energy will continue to grow and even exponentially. Clean fossil fuels are available and without strong energy balanced policies the future is bleak for many and not just because of climate change by the significantly higher cost of living and loss of opportunities due to energy starvation.

The energy challenges are complex and dynamic. This blog is not a comprehensive review, but simply a focus on a narrow aspect. For example, we did not delve into issues such as Carbon Capture & Sequestration. A calm, rational, economics discussion is in order.

What does Energy Transition mean to you and how will you help the Less Fortunate be better off?

For More Information

Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials. They are provided for education and entertainment only.

For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game. You can contact this author as well.
May 2, 2022
Will Price Controls Work This Time?

Update: Just after we published this edition, Goldman Sachs released this comprehensive research piece; Stagflation Risk.

Recently, one media outlet raised the suggestion of government price controls. Generally, seen as a bad idea, none-the-less in this inflationary environment, some may perceive value from an action of this kind.

Additionally, in the current environment some politicians favor cancelling the gasoline tax at both the state and federal levels. This might beg the question, if these taxes can be abated, why are they in place anyway?

In 1971, President Nixon implemented price and wage controls. Some saw this as an election ploy and if so, it worked as he was reelected. In 2008, the free market Republican George W. Bush stated that sometimes you have to, “abandon free‐market principles to save the free‐market system.” WHAT?

Elected politicians often think they know more about running companies and economies than those who actually do. Printing money and regulating commercial processes that they know nothing about, usually in the name of the people who may have put them in office. Since most of these individuals do not have a working knowledge of the economy, is it any wonder that they bugger things up when they insert themselves?

And Now!

Self imposed, inflation is now higher than it has been since the 1970s. Blamed on a third world country invading its neighbor, leadership states, I “can’t do much” about gasoline prices. Need I say, malarkey! The world is awash with ‘clean’ fossil fuels; societies just choose not to use them effectively.

The concept of an Energy Basket is well defined and depending on geographical location, and need requirements any or all can be used as economically feasible. Moreover, the concept of Energy Transition is not new.

In 1993, Theodore Modis published this diagram in his peer reviewed work, Technological Substitutions in the Computer Industry whereby he presented a technology substitution model that both energy and silicon mapped to very well.

While renewables were not included in the model, readers will get the point that energy transition has always been an on going process.

We further discussed this process in our 2015 book, Structural Dynamics: Foundation of Next Generation Management Science. We defined, Structural Dynamics “the morphology or patterns of motion towards process equilibrium of interpersonal systems.” In other words the nexus of structure and process whereby markets seek equilibrium if only for a time.

Markets drive technology substitution. Only when the economics of new energy sources are acceptable does the ‘take up’ move quickly.

Volckerism

Tough Love by the Fed kicked Stagflation in the gut and yes it hurt the US economy for years, but it saved the country from a worse fate. From the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, “On Oct. 6, 1979, Fed Chairman Paul Volcker took dramatic steps to rein in the runaway inflation that had been sapping the strength of our economy since the mid-1960s. Without his bold change in monetary policy and his determination to stick with it through several painful years, the U.S. economy would have continued its downward spiral. By reversing the misguided policies of his predecessors, Volcker set the table for the long economic expansions of the 1980s and 1990s.”

In 1965, the inflation rate was one percent. By 1980, it had hit 14 percent. Per Chairman Volcker’s statement, both Nixon and Carter implemented price controls with catastrophic effects on the nation.

The Heavy Hand

This is not a piece on fiscal or monetary policy, rather it is meant as a wake up call from someone who lived through that period. Distorted markets always correct, often rapidly and harshly. The Great Depression comes to mind as well, as the Dotcom Bubble, Financial Crisis of 2008, etc.

Those interested in the details and theory of human behavior in this period can follow up with the cited materials as well as a wealth of knowledge on the subject of price controls.

Bottom line, price controls did not work. Markets became distorted. Moreover, easy credit (very low interest rate) transformed to expensive credit (high interest rate) and eventually this painful process negatively transformed the marketplace in ways most contemporary readers have never known their whole life.

Price controls are tempting. It is easy to say, lets stop corporations from making obscene profits or gouging. However, the downside negatively impacts those who need economic help the most.

One expects that in the coming months, especially as the election nears calls for price controls will become louder. History has shown the results of such actions as economic suicide.

How will your company prepare for mandated price freezes?

For More Information

Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials. They are provided for education and entertainment only.

For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game. You can contact this author as well.

References:

Modis, Theodore. (1993). Technological Substitutions in the Computer Industry. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 43. pp. 157-167.

March 23, 2022