The Rapid Response Institute

Category: Technology

  • Artificial Stupidity

    Artificial Stupidity

    Listen closely and pay attention as our menu has changed.

    The frustration to the automated phone operator are legend.  All of us have had our issues with this form of (non) customer service.

    Recently this pundit placed a call at a number provided by the vendor and went though all the (voice) menu items, only to hit the ‘other’ button.  At this point, I was advised to dial the number I already had.  So much for Artificial Intelligence (AI) and welcome to the era of Artificial Stupidity.

    Firms are all jumping on the AI bandwagon, even though the technology is immature at best.   Sound like the dot.com bomb of a quarter of a century ago.  One wonders, what damage to their brand are the organizations incurring?

    Enter the MVP Mindset

    In recent years the software development sector has ‘Dumbing Down’ the level of  product commerciality.  Minimum Viable Product or MVP can be defined as, “The version of a new product which allows a team to collect the maximum amount of validated learning about customers with the least effort.”  Used to be called BETA in the good old days.  Now MVP is often seen as THE commercially released product.  Dah, hence the issues, frustration and lack of credibility in so-called AI solutions.

    All Things AI

    As mentioned, AI is all the rage.  Much like a fashion statement. everyone is jumping on that bandwagon.  But does it work?  Moreover, it encompasses a large spectrum of operations.

    Basically, anything that need big data crunching.  Yet crunching numbers is only interesting at best.  What problem is being solved?  This is where the weakness continues.  Algorithms are only as good as their author.  Some argue machines will take over this task, but one doubts anytime soon.  For example, jet engine commercial airlines are over 65 years old but increasingly seem to have construction/maintenance issues.  What makes us think this technology will be any different?  The Technology Adoption curve can be very lengthy and full of potholes.

    The judicious use of commercial quality software makes the most sense.  Just because every one is doing it is not a shareholder value added.  In many cases a sloppy approach actually decreases equity value.

    What is your organization’s approach to new technology and how does it add value?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the just published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • How Stupid is AI?

    How Stupid is AI?

    Recently this pundit was contacted with a purchase recommendation for something he had already acquired.  Dah!!

    According to Britannica, artificial intelligence (AI) is defined as, “the ability of a digital computer or computer-controlled robot to perform tasks commonly associated with intelligent beings.”  But just how mature is this technology?  The term covers a wide range of capabilities and according the IT research firm, Gartner reports that, “Responsible AI will take 5 to 10 years to reach mainstream adoption but will ultimately have a transformational impact on business.”  In other words, especially with ‘ethics’ is still early on the Hype Cycle.

    Previously, we addressed this blind adherence to technology algorithms (written by humans with all their frailties).  Examples include:

    Garbage In, Garbage Out still applies.  Computers are not autonomous beings capable of independent thought, they still follow decision trees.

    Technology Adoption Process

    In this writer’s opinion the selection and implementation of new technology is a function of both the maturity of the software as well as the maturity of the organization.  We have addressed the maturity issue on a number of occasions.  A robust review of our methodology is available.  If these two factors are not matched, failure is the most likely outcome.

    Moreover, the US government has released A Framework to Drive Technology Commercialization, a set of guidelines for new technology adoption.  Both of these tools are worth review.

    Going Forward

    AI may become everything its proponents advocate.  If so, it will be the first IT project since the Turing Machine to meet the ‘hyped’ expectations.

    Caveat Emptor applies to AI, just like everything procured since the Roman Empire.  Do your homework, just don’t fall in love!  Might end up in a messy divorce.

    How do you know if your organization is ready for AI and it is ready for you?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor for an in press book (to be released in Spring 2023) titled, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our recent blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • Whoa Nellie–Delays in the Smart Horseless Carriage

    Whoa Nellie–Delays in the Smart Horseless Carriage

    In the just released NCHRP Research Report 1001/BTSCRP Research Report 2, a new framework provides government and non government parties and other stakeholders a tool for the assessment and risk management for emerging automated driving system (ADS) technologies.

    This Framework for Assessing Potential Safety Impacts of Automated Driving Systems reminds this reader with a sense that the challenge here is similar to other complex critical systems such as health care and energy.  This should not be surprising given the huge global ground transportation sector.

    ADS Maturity

    Maturity Models are useful tools helping management and others assess organizational processes and the value standardization can provide all stakeholders.  Likewise, the ADS Maturity Model follows a similar path of the established ones such as Capability Maturity Model Integration (CMMI).

    According to the automotive authority, J.D. Power Driving Automation Maturity Model contains these six steps (in reverse order):

    5 – Full Driving–Vehicle is self contained as an autonomous operation.

    4 – High Driving–Requires no human driver and most likely be used within geofence boundaries.

    3 – Conditional Driving–Significant step up this level incorporates various systems including Artificial Intelligence (AI).  As of 2021, these level of automation was not approved in the United States.

    2 – Partial Driving–Vehicles with Advanced Driving Assistance Systems (ADAS) but still requires the driver to  remain engaged.

    1 – Driver Assistance–Vehicle contains one or more systems designed to help steerage and/or braking etc.

    0 – No Driving Automation–No automation, driver entirely operates the vehicle.

    While there are some test exceptions, if as noted, Level 2 is the highest approved to date and the step to Level 3 is a big one, it appears we have a ways to go before any of us see an autonomous vehicle.  Not sure were we are on the Gartner Hype Cycle but likely there is some distance to go.

    SEMS

    Safety and Environmental Management Systems (SEMS) have been around for years.  Typically, SEMS requirements are usually integrated into Operations Management Systems.

    In this pundit’s opinion, similar integration will incorporate ADS into policies, processes and procedures for each organization.  As with other sectors, a number of Safety Cultures will emerge.  These will need to collaborate with other like minded but somewhat different business and technology models.

    The Hype

    We are often told that autonomous vehicles will be with us soon.  However, the evidence suggests otherwise.  According to the IT research firm, Gartner ““More than half of the technologies on this Hype Cycle are in the trough [of Disillusionment], which means that the hard work of commercializing many significant technologies is underway.”  Moreover, many advanced technologies necessary for Level 6 are even less developed.  Many may recall the autonomous breaking problems one manufacturer dealt with just three years ago.  Caveat Emptor in this field, at least for a while.

    How willing are you to trust your life to a Smart Vehicle?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor for an in press book (to be released in Spring 2023) titled, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give us a shout.