The Rapid Response Institute

Category: Digitalization

  • Can Machines Think?

    Can Machines Think?

    In 1950, the mathematician Alan Turing put forth this question.  Rather than attempt to answer it using conventional logic, he proposed a new disruptive model–the Imitation Game.

    The Problem

    One can look at Alan Turing (1912-1954) as the “father of theoretical computer science and artificial intelligence.”  His contributions to modern computer science cannot be understated.  He posited whether computers could one day have the cognitive capabilities of humans.  Some argue that day has arrived.  Yet, how do we know?

    The Turing Game

    The Imitation Game is played by three people (humans).

    (A) a Man,

    (B) a Woman, and

    (C) an Interrogator (of either gender)

    • The Interrogator, segregated into a separate room, is to determine which of the two players is the man and which is the woman.
    • The interrogator askes the two players (known only as “X and Y” or “Y and X”) a series of questions, the answers to which are written or passed through an intermediary so as not to expose the player’s gender.
    • The role of Player (B) is to assist (C) determine the gender of (A), while (A) is to deceive (C).

    However,

    • “What will happen when a machine takes the part of A in this game?  Will the interrogator decide wrongly as often when the game is played like this as he does when the game is played between a man and a woman?  These questions replace our original, Can Machines Think?“

    In his paper, Turing goes to elaborate in detail but for our purposes, the bottom line.

    Will the error rate from a human only decision process be the same as when a machine (digital decision maker) become one of the players?

    Early AI and the Turing Test

    In 1955, McCarthy and Shannon, along with Marvin Minsky and Nathaniel Rochester, defined the AI problem as, “that of making a machine behave in ways that would be called intelligent if a human were so behaving.  In 2013, when asked about Turing’s test in a taped interview, Minsky said, ‘The Turing test is a joke, sort of, about saying a machine would be intelligent if it does things that an observer would say must be being done by a human.’”   This materially connects the early definition of the AI problem to Turing’s test.

    Our intent here is not to split academic hairs but to put forth this concept that predates most readers and is typically not a subject of serious discussion.  The point being that the problem was documented 75 years ago or earlier and this pioneering thinking is the basis of our contemporary definition and implementation of Artificial Intelligence.

    Before Turing

    In one sense, we all stand on the shoulders of giants who preceded us.  “When you think about the origins of computer science, the name Ada Lovelace might not come to mind immediately—but it should.  Born in 1815, Ada Lovelace was an English mathematician and writer whose visionary work laid the foundation for modern computing.  Collaborating with Charles Babbage (considered to be the father of computing), the inventor of the Analytical Engine, Lovelace wrote what is widely recognized as the first algorithm designed for a machine.”

    “Ada was the first to explicitly articulate this notion and in this she appears to have seen further than Babbage.  She has been referred to as ‘prophet of the computer age‘.  Certainly, she was the first to express the potential for computers outside mathematics.”  In the computer Familia, we might also want to think of her as the grandmother of computing.

    Other women who played a major role in the evolution of Artificial Intelligence (after Turing) include Navy Rear Admiral Grace Hopper, the inventor of the first compiler for a programming language as well as other innovations.  Many others made significant contributions.  No doubt women will continue to play a vital role with this game changing technology.

    The Solution(s)

    Twelve years have passed since Minsky’s statement that the Turing test is a joke.  Today’s artificial intelligence capability has changed that landscape.

    The argument becomes, not can ‘we’ meet the Turing test, but how far and fast will it be eclipsed.  This suggests exciting times with associated challenges and risks.

    Contemporary Thinking about the Test

    “As AI systems are increasingly deployed in high-stakes scenarios, we may need to move beyond aggregate metrics and static benchmarks of input–output pairs, such as the Beyond the Imitation Game Benchmark (BIG-bench). We should be prepared to evaluate an AI’s cognitive abilities in a way that resembles the realistic settings in which it will be used.  This can be done with modern Turing-Like Tests.”  As shown in the following figure.

    “Looking ahead, Turing-like AI testing that would introduce machine adversaries and statistical protocols to address emerging challenges such as data contamination and poisoning.  These more rigorous evaluation methods will ensure AI systems are tested in ways that reflect real-world complexities, aligning with Turing’s vision of sustainable and ethically guided machine intelligence.”

    Computer Game Bot Turing Test

    “The computer game bot Turing test is a variant of the Turing test, where a human judge viewing and interacting with a virtual world must distinguish between other humans and video game bots, both interacting with the same virtual world. This variant was first proposed in 2008 by Associate Professor Philip Hingston of Edith Cowan University, and implemented through a tournament called the 2K BotPrize.”

    This pundit believes that the Turning test dam has been broken, and greater things lie ahead.

    Today’s Father of AI – Geoffrey Hinton, The Nobel Prize in Physics 2024

    “When we talk about artificial intelligence, we often mean machine learning using artificial neural networks. This technology was originally inspired by the structure of the brain.  In an artificial neural network, the brain’s neurons are represented by nodes that have different values.  In 1983–1985, Geoffrey Hinton used tools from statistical physics to create the Boltzmann machine, which can learn to recognize characteristic elements in a set of data.  The invention became significant, for example, for classifying and creating images.”

    Together with John J. Hopfield, they used physics to find patterns in information.  Dr. Hinton has expressed some concerns regarding his (AI) child as he states in the following interview from October 9, 2023.

    Theoretical Basis of Tests

    In this pundit’s opinion, the Turing test used Game Theory as a fundamental underpinning.  A later theory, Relationships, Behaviors and Conditions enables newer derivatives of the original Turing Test as well as supports different approaches to the problem.  These theories are briefly described.

    Finally, it is not necessary to read this section, as these details are provided for completeness and to support the position taken.  We understand that this level of detail is not for every reader.

    Over the past few years, there has been an impassioned argument regarding ‘The Science.”  We addressed this issue in 2020, and the following paragraph is taken from that Blog, They Blinded Me with Science.

    “According to Scientific American, Scientific claims are falsifiable—that is, they are claims where you could set out what observable outcomes would be impossible if the claim were true—while pseudo-scientific claims fit with any imaginable set of observable outcomes.  What this means is that you could do a test that shows a scientific claim to be false, but no conceivable test could show a pseudo-scientific claim to be false.

    Sciences are testable, pseudo-sciences are not.”

    There is academic peer reviewed agreement that both Game Theory and RBC hypotheses are testable.

    Game Theory

    Concurrent with Turing’s Imitation Game development, game theory was being formalized as an approach towards economic behavior modeling among economic ‘rational’ actors.

    “Game theory emerged as a distinct subdiscipline of applied mathematics, economics, and social science with the publication in 1944 of Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, a work of more than six hundred pages written in Princeton by two Continental European emigrés, John von Neumann, a Hungarian mathematician and physicist who was a pioneer in fields from quantum mechanics to computers, and Oskar Morgenstern, a former director of the Austrian Institute for Economic Research.  They built upon analyses of two-person, zero-sum games published in the 1920s.”  This treatise was developed from the works of other pioneers of the 1920s and 1930s.

    An interesting side note, “The software industry is a little over half a century old (in 2005), but its roots date back to the textile loom programming of the seventeenth century that powered the Charles Babbage Difference Engine. In 1946, ENIAC (Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer), the first large-scale general-purpose electronic computer built at the University of Pennsylvania, ushered in the modern computing era.

    That same year (1946), John von Neumann coauthored a paper, Preliminary Discussion of the Logical Design of an Electronic Computing Instrument.  The von Neumann general purpose architecture defines the process of executing a continuous cycle of extracting an instruction from memory, processing it, and storing the results has been used by programmers ever since.“(1) 

    Perhaps, this is part of the collision of the two major breakthroughs: Game Theory and the modern Computer Architecture.

    In 1996, this author’s doctoral dissertation, Cross Cultural Negotiations between Japanese and American Businessmen: A Systems Analysis, (Exploratory Study) was “An exploratory test of this framework in the context of two-person zero-sum simulated negotiation between Japanese businessmen and American salesmen, both living and working in the United States.  The integration of structural (game theory) and process theories (RBC) into a dynamic systems model seeks to better understand the nature of complex international negotiations.  Advanced statistical techniques, such as structural equation modeling are useful tools providing insight into these negotiation dynamics.”

    This work is the basis for the Cloud based Serious Games used to train Cross Cultural Teams.

    Relationships, Behaviors and Conditions (RBC) Framework

    This model has been part of numerous this pundit’s writings since 1996.  A brief overview from a 2011 article follows.

    “The Relationships, Behaviors, and Conditions (RBC) model was originally developed to address issues around cross cultural (international) negotiation processes.   Relationships are the focal point of this perspective, reflecting commonality of interest, balance of power and trust as well as intensity of expressed conflict.

    Behavior in this model is defined as a broad term including multidimensions – intentional as well as unintentional.  Finally, Conditions are defined as active and including circumstances, capabilities and skills of the parties, culture, and the environment.  Of course, time is a variable in this model as well.

    One key feature of the R B C Framework is its emphasis on interactive relationships while providing an environment for multiple levels of behavioral analysis. This makes it a useful tool to better understand the new regulatory processes currently unfolding.  As we will see later, the number of constituents now engaged belays the use of simplistic linear decision models.”(2)

    Operational Excellence

    The following excerpt from our 2017 Blog, Excellent Behaviors: Assessing Relationships in the Operational Excellence Ecosystem addresses the role of the RBC Framework in organizational excellence.

    “One of the hot business buzzwords of 2017 is “Operational Excellence.” It has been the subject for many pundits, including this one.

    In October and November we published a two-part series, Assuring Operational Excellence from Contractors and Their Subcontractors through BTOES Insights.  Each part included a link to additional information.

    The October edition featured an excerpt of our Implementing a Culture of Safety book. In the November edition we released our new Best Practice solution, Attaining & Sustaining Operational Excellence: A Best Practice Implementation Model. We are proud to make it available herein and in general.

    One of the basic tenets of the RBC Framework is the general construct that Relationships cannot be determined a priori.  The well-used example is a man and a woman sitting on a bench at a bus stop.  Are they married, siblings, coworkers, friends or simply two people waiting to catch the same/different bus?

    Their relationship cannot be known directly. However, their Behaviors will provide insight into how they relate to each other.  Romantic behavior may indicate marriage, dating, an affair etc.  They may still be coworkers but most likely are not strangers.

    The third dimension, Conditions (environment) can be considered the stage upon which behaviors play.  So, what does this have to do with Operational Excellence?

    Another component of our digital environment is Human Systems Integration (HSI). In our forthcoming book, we have defined HSI as, “Human Systems Integration (HSI) considers the following seven domains: Manpower, Personnel, Training, Human Factors Engineering, Personnel Survivability, Habitability, and Environment, Safety and Occupational Health (ESOH).  In simple terms, HSI focuses on human beings and their interaction with hardware, software, and the environment.”

    We have crossed the Turing Rubicon.  How will your organization capitalize on these Opportunities?

    Hardcopy References

    1. Shemwell, Scott M. (2005). Disruptive Technologies—Out of the Box. Essays on Business and Information Technology Alignment Issues of the Early 21st Century. New York: Xlibris. p. 127.

    2. _______ (2011, January). The Blast Heard Around the World. Petroleum Africa Magazine. pp. 32-35.

    Pre order our new book

    Navigating the Data Minefields:

    Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making

    We are living in an era of data and software exponential growth.  A substantive flood hitting us every day.  Geek heaven!  But what if information technology is not your cup of tea and you may even have your kids help with your smart devices?  This may not be a problem at home; however, what if you job depends on Big Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI)?

    Available April 2025

    Ordering Information

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is the coauthor of the 2023 book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be released by CRC Press in April 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross-Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg and his book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • Who Owns the Intellectual Property Generated by AI?

    Who Owns the Intellectual Property Generated by AI?

    Disclaimer:  The author is not an attorney, and this document is not meant to be a legal opinion in any sense.  Interested readers should contact their legal counsel for any Intellectual Property (IP) determination.  This blog simply raises a question that is generally not addressed regarding ownership rights of the content and products developed using artificial intelligence emerging technologies.  One suspects that going forward, this issue will become more forefront.

    Moreover, this is a fast-moving environment with new local laws and promulgated regulations continuously updated.  Readers are cautioned that some of the materials herein may be quickly dated.  Appropriate legal counsel and other experts should be consulted.

    Like most new software technologies, there is a period of the Wild West where anything seems to go.  Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been no different, but now these horses are beginning to be reined in.

    It is generally accepted that the ownership of content developed using third party software belongs to the generator of said content.  Data, the results of analytics and their interpretation, computer generated audio video materials, etc. are generally covered by this convention and codified by law.  The spreadsheet vendor does not own the financial analysis that leads to major value add to the firm.  Conversely, if the financial model is flawed, the software developer is generally not liable.

    However, Artificial Intelligence is a different technology model.  It dictates that organizational AI policies recognize the disruptive change caused.  For example, the publisher of my new book, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making has issued its author, AI Policy.

    An AI engine searches for data and information from a wide variety of sources.  It then amalgamates and analyzes and/or develops what some consider a new product or solution–document, image, or new approach/model, e.g. medical technique.  However, did the AI secure permission from the data owner(s) or even cite its source(s)?  The most likely answer is no.  A follow-on statement might be, “why do we need that?”

    Copyright

    According to the U.S. Copyright Office, “Copyright is a type of intellectual property that protects original works of authorship as soon as an author fixes the work in a tangible form of expression.  In copyright law, there are a lot of different types of works, including paintings, photographs, illustrations, musical compositions, sound recordings, computer programs, books, poems, blog posts, movies, architectural works, plays, and so much more!”  The Copyright Office goes on to state, “Works are original when they are independently created by a human author and have a minimal degree of creativity.”
     
    In the UK, “Two conflicting views emerged.  The tech sector believes the copyright to AI-generated content should belong to users, whereas the creative sector wants this content to be excluded from ownership completely.”
     
    From a 2022 Reuters article about a lawsuit over, Gen AI generated content.
    “Accordingly, unless a generative AI is used in such a manner that its output would be recognizably linked to some person or entity who is likely to actively police the use of their works and whose works are likely to be registered, the risk of the generative AI’s users being sued for infringement seems low.
     
    In practice, the legal issues surrounding generative AI mean that its outputs should be handled in a manner similar to materials covered by open source or creative commons licenses — i.e., with policies and procedures which ensure use only in appropriate manners and cases.  This includes determining if a project where generative AI would be used is something whose results would need to be protected and, if so, determining whether tools are available for that protection other than copyright.
     
    It also includes avoiding high risk uses, such as using generative AI to attempt to replicate the work of a particular artist whose materials were used as training data. However, with intentionality and forethought, the risks associated with generative AI can be managed, and this new technology can bring tremendous benefits to those who deploy it intelligently.“
     
    Later, we will address two other types of Intellectual Property, Patents and Trademarks.  Both have a lengthy pedigree as well that must be considered in our new AI era.
     

    Data Privacy

    Data privacy and security are major issues organizations must deal with, and the regulatory burden is onerous.  Most readers have heard of HIPPA; the need to keep individual medical records confidential.  HIPPA is symptomatic of the need to treat ALL data in secure and private.

    From the GDPR, “The General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) is the toughest privacy and security law in the world.  Though it was drafted and passed by the European Union (EU), it imposes obligations onto organizations anywhere, so long as they target or collect data related to people in the EU.  The regulation was put into effect on May 25, 2018.   The GDPR will levy harsh fines against those who violate its privacy and security standards, with penalties reaching into the tens of millions of euros.”

    The EU regulations are viewed as the ‘gold standard’ and others worldwide are in the process of emulating them.  Increased date management regulations are a given, as is their impact on AI learning.

    IP Guardrails

    Individuals and organizations jealously guard their intellectual properties, as they should.  Just think of the significant value Disney has built over 100 years from a cartoon mouse.

    Some may see AI as an assault on the organization’s core and take legal action they believe appropriate.  Others will try to capitalize on loopholes.  This is not different behavior from the IP current practice.

    AI advocates will find themselves in the midst of what could be a significant number of legal challenges as the technology and its regulation matures.  The current long-standing legal battles over social media platforms is but one example of this process.

    IP Ownership of AI Generated Content: The Movie

    Summary of the Video

    Briefly, in the video dated January 7, 2024, the attorney makes the following key points:

    • Copyright extends only to humans and AI content generated by products such as ChatGPT do not meet the ‘human’ authorship test.  However, if a human is actively engaged in the development of (and change) said content, things get less clear.
    •  Regarding AI generated inventions, Patent law becomes more relevant.  The speaker argues that ‘at least today’ patent laws mirror copyright because human creativity is key.
    • As far as AI generated Trademarks are concerned, these products such as logos, tag lines, etc. do not enjoy original authorship protection, but their ‘first use’ has precedence.  For more information he references the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO).
    • Finally, he states that this area of the law is unfolding, and change is likely.

    These points were transcribed by this pundit.  As such, they are only his perception and must be viewed skeptically when addressing a specific ‘real’ question regarding this subject matter.  The attorney’s fifth bullet is probably the most important one.

    Final Thoughts

    Intellectual Property ownership is an area that technologists and software developers are generally not involved with.  Additionally, many have historically treated the content found online as if it is in the public domain.  We now know that authorship should be attributed.

    For most of the things individuals and organizations do with online content this is not an issue.  Blogs, political opinion and technology critique among others come to mind.

    However, AI has the potential to change fortunes (wealth, reputation and other) of individuals and organizations.  Finally, the regulatory environment is evolving, and dramatic changes are most likely forthcoming.

    Individual creators, management and others have a responsibility to assure AI developed content meets, and not just the regulations (in each jurisdiction the firm operates in).  Moreover, governance enforcement models must add AI technologies and assure that others are not infringing on the firm’s IP with potential risks of capital and reputational loss.

    One Last Thing

    With the need to protect data as well as assure all key intellectual property is protected, will this negatively impact on the output of AI models?  What will be the basis of gen AI training if it cannot gain access to the universe of data they require?  And yes, I know we often sign away certain rights when we engage with some organizations, but we can ‘opt out’ of allowing access to our data.

    Another Blog for a later time but in the meantime, just a question.

    How is your organization addressing these and other Intellectual Property issues emerging from Gen AI and other content developers?

    Pre order our new book

    Navigating the Data Minefields:

    Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making

    We are living in an era of data and software exponential growth.  A substantive flood hitting us every day.  Geek heaven!  But what if information technology is not your cup of tea and you may even have your kids help with your smart devices?  This may not be a problem at home; however, what if you job depends on Big Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI)?

    Available April 2025

    Ordering Information

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is the coauthor of the recently published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be published by CRC Press in 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross-Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg and his book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • The Crisis/Challenge of AI in 2025

    The Crisis/Challenge of AI in 2025

    “Many processes are repeatable and only data inputs change.”

                                                                                                         — Scott Shemwell, 2023.

    Technology disruption has been with humankind since the first invention.  We get used to one model and suddenly, a new way supplants the old.  Much has been written about the innovation process, and it is not the focus of this Blog to regurgitate the obvious.

    However, Wikipedia states, “Beyond business and economics disruptive innovations can also be considered to disrupt complex systems, including economic and business-related aspects.  Through identifying and analyzing systems for possible points of intervention, one can then design changes focused on disruptive interventions.”  This is the broader focus of this piece.

    Human Redundancy?

    One if the ongoing concerns, “will AI replace humans?”  As of this writing, many do not believe it will, at least anytime soon.  Interestingly, according to Harvard professor Karim Lakhani, “Just as the internet has drastically lowered the cost of information transmission, AI will lower the cost of cognition.”  This is consistent with the traditional path of Information Technology innovation.

    Moreover, this concern is not new.  In her 1983 paper, Ironies of Automation, Lisanne Bainbridge posited that there are inherent problems with automating workflow, humans are still required for tasks that are not easily (if at all) automated.  Oversight of automation requires more training in new job skills, not less.  More recently, the former Chief Scientist of the US Air Force points out the “Original Ironies of Automation is highly relevant with regards to today’s new wave of AI-enhanced automation.  Near misses and incidents involving human automation operations often arise from a mismatch between the properties of the system as a whole and the characteristics of human information processing.”

    In our forthcoming book we address the need for Strong Oversight coupled with Standardization and Risk Tolerance to address the broader need for upskilling today.  According to McKinsey, “Any engineering talent rethink needs to begin with an understanding of how gen AI will affect the product development life cycle.”

    Paraphrasing Mark Twain, “The rumors of Human demise are greatly exaggerated.”  AI is here to stay and should be embraced with cautionary guardrails as it is still immature and subject to error.

    Human Factors

    One pundit refers to the ‘Human Edge‘ as the competitive Advantage we have over machines.  This pundit has long been an advocate for Human Factors when it comes to managing technology, especially emerging technology used for process or production management.  The risk profile otherwise is just to0 steep and high.  One only has to look at the recent travails of the once venerable firm, Boeing.

    2025 and Beyond

    Artificial Technology, its future derivative products and solutions not yet envisioned will continue.  Most likely at the breakneck speed or faster of today.  Remember when we used to think of the Internet growth in terms of Dog Years?  Insect Years may be the new metric.

    Many, including this writer as documented in our book, believe AI et al is just entering the explosive growth on the maturation curve.  We must live with it and the most successful will get ‘on board’ when the timing is right for them.

    Exciting times lie before us all and it is a great time to be alive, at least from a technology perspective.

    How are you, your family and work colleagues prepared for the future?

    Pre order our new book

    Navigating the Data Minefields:

    Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making

    We are living in an era of data and software exponential growth.  A substantive flood hitting us every day.  Geek heaven!  But what if information technology is not your cup of tea and you may even have your kids help with your smart devices?  This may not be a problem at home; however, what if you job depends on Big Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI)?

    Available April 2025

    Ordering Information

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the recently published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be published by CRC Press in 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross-Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg and his book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • DOGE’d

    DOGE’d

    The Day the Congress Stood Still

    On December 18, 2024, Elon Musk delivered on the social media site, 𝕏  the death knell of a 1500+ page so called Continuing Resolution that was to stave off a Federal Government shutdown.  Later it was replaced with a much shorter (100+ page) bill that passed largely intact.

    This Out-of-the-Gate action by the Non-Government Organization (NGO), DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) may foretell the next 18+ months of DOGE’s self-imposed life ending July 4, 2026.  This first Musk assessment revealed extensive and massive political pork earmarked spending.

    The Congress and all manner of hired bureaucrats may face increased public scrutiny, posted for all to see.  Who knows, the idea may expand to all levels of government and their hired hands.

    Creative Destruction

    Previously, we discussed this economic substitution model.  “The economist Joseph Schumpeter was the first to coin the term creative destruction–the destruction of old markets and those active in them through innovation, & inventing of new markets, this can be new technologies, methods, business models, services, or products.”  One can argue that the creative destruction cycle time is very short today.

    And perhaps getting even shorter!

    Gort or Grok?

    In the original (1951) movie, The Day the Earth Stood Still, the robot Gort has the ability to destroy the world.  It is prevented from doing so by the utterance (by a human) of the key words, “Klaatu barada nikto.”

    According to 𝕏, the Artificial Intelligence (AI) robot of today, Grok (formally defined as “to understand something”) “leverages the 𝕏 platform to understand what’s happening in the world in real time. We recently launched two additional features to enhance this experience even further: web search and citations.  Now Grok draws upon posts from 𝕏 and webpages from the broader internet to provide timely and accurate answers to your queries.  We also added citations, so you can easily dive deeper into a source to learn more or verify the information provided by Grok.”

    Fortunately, three simple words neutralized Gort, and the earth was saved.  Grok will not so easily be rendered impotent, unless the First Amendment is repealed.

    The government world has been (figurately) creatively destroyed and changed forever.  Moreover, in their world of consistent suboptimal performance, most have no idea what has already happened to their cherished long-standing bureaucratic processes.

    The Regulatory Public Comment period will never be the same.

    After DOGE

    It appears that Musk has put in place an AI solution that will live on after the formal closure of DOGE in 2026.  Grok and other emerging AI tools can continue to review and assess each and every piece of proposed legislation and other government edicts regardless of length and/or complexity.

    Like Hacking, those opposed to honesty will seek ways to thwart AI.  Those providing transparency solutions will need to stay one step ahead, just like law enforcement agencies that are required to enforce and uphold the law.  If accepted social behaviors norms are to prevail, transparency is demanded.

    Finally, we can “read the bill to find out what is in it.”  Prior to voting!

    This Accountability Sucks!

    Well, get over it!  One suspects entrenched vested interests will try to find ways around this revolution, but likely to no avail.  There is not only a new sheriff in town, even after he leaves, the new accountability will remain.

    And so much for the current media business model whereby either a single individual or small group amalgamates society’s daily activities and present the proletariat with their (often agenda driven/opinionated/biased) version of THE NEWS.

    How will you take advantage of the AI delivery of information?

    Pre order our new book

    Navigating the Data Minefields:

    Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making

    We are living in an era of data and software exponential growth.  A substantive flood hitting us every day.  Geek heaven!  But what if information technology is not your cup of tea and you may even have your kids help with your smart devices?  This may not be a problem at home; however, what if you job depends on Big Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI)?

    Available April 2025

    Ordering Information

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the recently published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be published by CRC Press in 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross-Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg and his book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • Let’s Test Artificial Intelligence

    Let’s Test Artificial Intelligence

    This author is working on a book to be published in early 2025 that addresses issues about the decision to procure and implement today’s exploding technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).  So, for this edition, we wanted to try something new.  We are going to ask Chat GPT how to sell Artificial Intelligence and glean knowledge from this non-human response.

    We will ask the following and present the AI response.  Do to space limitations we will limit the length of the AI answer.  Finally, how does the AI response compare to experience?

    Question: What are the Top Ten B2B Sales Objections?

    We are licensed and used ‘Chatbot Pro powered by OpenAI.’ to obtain the following response:

    In B2B sales, encountering objections is common. Here are ten of the most frequent objections sales professionals may face:

    1. Price Concerns: “It’s too expensive.” Buyers often worry about how a purchase impacts their budget.

    2. Need for Approval: “I need to get this approved by my manager.” This highlights the longer decision-making process in B2B environments.

    3. Existing Vendor Loyalty: “We’re already working with another provider.” Customers may be reluctant to change suppliers due to established relationships.

    4. Timing Issues: “We’re not ready to make a decision right now.” This can signal that the buyer needs more time or is in a different stage of their purchasing journey.

    5. Lack of Trust: “I don’t know enough about your company.” Prospects may require more assurance regarding the credibility and track record of the vendor.

    6. Concerns Over ROI: “How can you guarantee a return on investment?” Buyers want assurance that the product or service will add value to their business.

    7. Complexity of Implementation: “The implementation process seems complicated.” Prospects may fear that adopting a new solution could disrupt their operations.

    8. Product Fit: “I’m not sure this meets our specific needs.” For B2B buyers, product alignment with their unique requirements is vital.

    9. Potential Risks: “What if it doesn’t work for us?” Buyers may worry about the risks associated with adopting new solutions or the potential for failure.

    10. Economic Conditions: “Given the current economic climate, we need to be cautious.” External factors, such as economic downturns, can lead to increased scrutiny on new expenditures.

    Addressing these objections effectively is crucial for closing deals in the B2B space.

    This is pretty impressive.  It is a simple example of the power this set of technologies can deliver if used properly.  Readers may remember an example of how not to use AI.  Some examples can be found in our Blog edition, How Stupid is AI?  Humans still develop Artificial Intelligence solutions.  Therefore, the relative value of this suite of technologies isa function of the expertise of those seeking to solve various difficult challenges.

    What Unreleased Value will you Address with AI and Why?

    We are pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be published by CRC Press in 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the just published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • What Do You Think About Artificial Intelligence?

    What Do You Think About Artificial Intelligence?

    The world is abuzz, not with the US presidential election, but with Artificial Intelligence (AI).  How do you feel about this game changing suite of technologies?

    Whether we agree or not, the AI tsunami is coming ashore.  What we, as individuals do about this phenomenon will dictate the remainder of our career and even quality of life.

    Do you see this as a threat or opportunity?  Technological advancement has led to the indoor flush toilet, horseless carriage and even the ubiquitous Smartphone.  What makes AI any different?

    The burden we all face when confronting the inevitable is to adapt.  Some jobs will be eliminated, (the preverbal buggy whip manufactures) and others will emerge.  Your task is to stay relevant.

    Beyond AI

    AI technology is not the beginning or the new, but the next step in the ongoing information technology resolution.  Expect much more to come and sooner rather than later.

    Humans have always had to develop and adapt to new technologies.  Our modern lifestyle is a testament to our collective success.  Embrace the change and as they saying goes “Yippee Ki-Yay,”  Or just go for it!  AI is only a step, more is to come.

    What are you doing to assure you are not left behind?

    We are pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be published by CRC Press in 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the just published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

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  • How Do You Know the App is Giving You the Right Answer?

    How Do You Know the App is Giving You the Right Answer?

    We all rely on Apps for most of our decision making.  But, how do we know the app is providing the correct answer?

    The stories about spreadsheet errors are legendary and are usually the result of human ‘data entry’ or ‘calculation’ errors.  However, software can be the root cause for problems.  Software bugs are classified into three types:

    1. Software Defects by its Nature–The type of software, its functionality and role it plays with other software applications.
    2. Software Defects by its Priority–The likelihood of a severe impact on the software program.
    3. Software Defects by its Severity–The impact a defect can have on operations, other integrated packages, etc.

    Regardless of the software defect/error type, or caused by human misuse or data input issues, the results can be devastating.  The following 3.38 minute video does a good job presenting a high-level overview on this subject which is probably the level of detail a layperson should have on this subject.

    I Give, How Would I Know?

    The navigation system in my 2015 SUV routinely tells me that I have arrived at my destination a block or more before I actually have.  I know this from experience and expect this error.  However, we do not often have this level of visibility into the output of software.

    The long-time classic IT response to a question is, “It Depends.”  The argument meaning, that the answer is unknowable and I need more information.  This response from your IT division or third party contractors is totally irresponsible.  For example, they need to go find out and report back that Gaps exist and need to be addressed.

    If I am completing my expense account on my portal and the total sum seems incorrect, it is not the end of the world and this can easily be remedied.  If the decision has greater consequences or is risky, additional assessment should be sought.  For example:

    • If the recommendation is  based on the output of a spreadsheet or other app output is critical, have a neutral third party independently arrive at a conclusion.  It they agree, probably OK, if not more assessment is warranted.  If the discussion is, ‘We don’t have time,’ then perhaps the response to the decision to the question is NO!
    • Decision makers need to look at the three software issues listed above and answer the internal answer as to the impact of the software.  Not just the possibility of errors or incorrect calculations but the test of the impact on the organization if errors exists.  The CloudStrike episode is a case in point where that organization did not take Version Management professionally.
    • Finally, does the answer pass the ‘Smell Test?’  What do your experts say about the output; by they way they can be wrong.

    Much of this is subjective, but decision makers should treat this technology as the do with other technologies.  IT solutions can have a high impact on the firm, yet they can be disastrous as well.  The ultimate test; IT indicatives/decisions must be scrutinized with the same degree as any other corporate level decision.

    For the complex AI derived responses, the opinion writer suggests the humans trying to decipher this data, look to the Scientific Method.  This is tried approach to problem solving and even if only AI can provide an answer, the process to get this answer needs to be understood.

    This scientist was trained during the slide rule era.  As such we needed to understand the problem and how it would be solved, rather that an answer spit out from a computer.  This skill set needs to be resurrected in the AI era.

    Are you assured your software is accurate?  How do you know?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the just published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • A Model for Technology Adoption

    A Model for Technology Adoption

    Oh My, I am Swamped by this Firehose of New Technologies.  How can I Understand, Much Less Use These Tools?

    Like most of us, our job is not about new bigger, better, faster IT.  We have the daily grind to attend to and quarterly metrics to make.  What we need from IT providers (internal and external) are the solutions and tools we need to do our jobs.  But how do we know what are the right software solutions and which will disappoint us?

    This is Easier than You Think

    In our forthcoming book to be published by CRC Press in 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making we address technology adoption issues at length.  However, while you are waiting to order your copy of these guidelines, there are a few things you can begin with.

    Ask yourself the following questions:

    • What is the quality of your data and how is it used in decision-making processes.?
    • How much do you and your organization know about the challenges and trends in Big Data and associated applications, such as Artificial Intelligence (AI)?
    • How ready is your organization to fund and implement new advanced software/cloud applications?
    • Does your organization know how to realize the full and measurable economic value from these technologies?
    • What is your organization’s appetite for the risks involved from implementing new technologies?
    • How will these technologies be used in your organization?

    Getting a handle on these few questions will give you and your organization a good start in this journey.

    Final Thoughts

    One can make a case that the advent of new information technologies is ramping up.  The expectations this author has for AI, for instance, is just beginning.  Why and How organization take advantage of these solutions is not longer in the hands of the Chief Information Officer or other ‘C’ level individual responsible for keeping the firm abreast of advances.  These are now corner office decisions, and in some cases the Board of Directors will have to concur and/or approve.

    How are you preparing yourself and your organization the Brave New World?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the just published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • Getting To Smart

    Getting To Smart

    We are pleased to announce the publication of our new book, Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.

    The first sentence in the Abstract of Chapter 2, Operational Technologies reads, “There is a lot of information about ‘Smart Manufacturing’ albeit precious little information about its implementation and ongoing sustainability. Without a set of guidelines or what is commonly known as a Roadmap, the likelihood of success is limited.  Like an architect’s blueprint, a Roadmap provides management and its Information Technology (IT) support organizations (internal/external) with the ability to cost effectively drive their organizations toward Smart.”  This is the theme of the book which develops an actionable Roadmap that enables organizations to successful implement and sustain Smart Transformational Change.

    Implementation Process

    Regardless of your industry sector, there are several major processes to follow when developing and implementing a Smart Transformation.

    •  Identify the Economic Value of the investment
    • Determine the Maturity of the Technology to be used and Risk associated with its use
    • Process drives the Technology, not the use of ‘cool’ or topical hype
    • Align with industry and technology Standards
    • Put in place a Risk Mitigation strategy
    • Learn from other’s Best or Good Practices
    •  Drive the organizational Transformational Process
    • Manage to the Measures of Success

    We have driven this type of change based on new technologies and knowledge for almost 50 years.  This approach is ‘Tried and True’ as well as well documented.  One suggests that the Roadmap provided is the framework needed for success regardless of your industry sector.

    How are you assuring the Smart Transformation adds Value to your Organization?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our recent blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • Data, Data Everywhere but Not an Answer in Sight

    Data, Data Everywhere but Not an Answer in Sight

    Awash with data, how many decisions made actually use it to add value?  Too few one suspects and partly because decision-making systems are not designed for this volume.  Much is made about Big Data and the value it can add to a business.  However, there is little said about the software applications and compute power that are necessary.

    Data, like information is a continuous feed from a variety of often conflicting sources. How this often subjective data is normalized which can lead to skewed results.

    One has only to look at daily news casts about any given subject to find a variety of ‘opinions’ as opposed to actual non-bias reporting.  One can argue that there is no objectivity with most analyses.

    So it is true with data analysis.  Data bias is a well known phenomena and clouds objectivity.  This matters most when organizations are making critical decisions.

    As we enter into the ‘Smart’ era data issues will not only be on the Critical Path, they will be the possibly be a major point of failure and significant operational losses and perhaps significant injury or even loss of life.

    In the last blog we discussed the difference in a methodology (The Science) vs new and often conflicting data.  We expand on the data mess, confusion, apparent flip flop, bias(es) and political agendas.

    While all of this might be political sport for a pandemic.  Can you run an organization based on this data?  Probably not a successful one!

    This author has addressed organizational governance issues for decades. We saw Sarbanes-Oxley, Asset Integrity, and now ESG.  It is time data had a seat at the board room?

    Decision Maker Beware

    Management is paid to make decisions based on uncertain, incomplete and often conflicting inputs.  It pays to have an understanding of the limitations of data and the software application decision makers.  Your career may depend on it.

    How Do You Know that the Data Upon Which You Make Decisions is Valid and Reliable?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.

     

  • Roadmap to Decision Making In the ‘Smart’ Era

    Roadmap to Decision Making In the ‘Smart’ Era

    “Nothing is more difficult, and therefore more precious, than to be able to decide.”

    — Napoleon Bonaparte

    Volumes have been written on decision-making and this pundit has offered his share of insight and comment on the subject as well.  Some of our comments regard the appropriateness of the human intercession in electronic decision making.  Others raise questions regarding algorithm fallibility.  Moreover, Human Factors must be considered for any technology initiative which are becoming increasingly important.

    If one unpacks the previous paragraph a substantial level of complexity emerges.  As complexity increases so does risk and the need from proper governance.  However, many still see this potential transformation through the lens of just another IT initiative.

    Roadmap

    The oil and gas industry faced a similar dilemma at the dawn of the 21st Century.  At the time, referred to as DOFF or Digital Oilfield of the Future, a plethora of technologies became available.  The task was to transform 100 plus years of traditional operation to what is now referred to as the Digital Oilfield, aka Integrated Operations and a number or synonyms.  While this processes continues to evolve as new solutions emerge, i.e., Cloud, at the time much was trial and error.

    In conjunction with industry leadership, we released our Roadmap to Enterprise Optimization: A Guide to the Impact of Information Driven Field Operations on the Petroleum Corporation in the fall of 2004.  We believe it was the first industry (POSC) supported effort that was not simply research but a ‘bona fide’ action plan or roadmap to success based on industry/other knowledge, standards, economic value and best practices.

    Click for full size Integrated Operations Framework or graphic

    Since then, we have updated this roadmap into an Operational Excellence Platform.  Note that Integrated Operations is a key component.  The platform is a robust detailed solution that is available not just to the energy sector but all sectors identified by Homeland Security as Critical Infrastructure.  These sectors were recently identified as susceptible to hacking by the US government.

    Getting Smart

    Enormous corporate (shareholder) wealth has been destroyed implementing ‘game changing’ technology enabled transformation efforts.  Are we about to do that again, getting smart?  The easy answer is yes, but it does not have to be.

    Roadmap constructs are well understood and provide guidance.  In some models the step by step process provide practitioners with well defined models that can lead to success–defined as on time and under budget performance against Key Performance Indicators (KPIs).

    We are in the process of writing a book, to be released in 2022.  One chapter will define a roadmap for the transformation to ‘Smart’ for a major industrial segment.  As with earlier works, it will focus on the human element aligned with a technology assessment process.

    Get Smart was a comedic TV show spoofing the Cold War ‘spy’ environment of the 1960s.  Getting Smart today may not be a lot different.  The goal under a ‘Cone of Silence‘ was to attain and sustain competitive advantaged achieving superior stakeholder returns.

    Getting smart in 2021 will require a ‘Roadmap to Smart.’  A set of ‘to do’ processes that assures success.

    What is your Organization’s Plan to put Smart Decisioning Making Processes in Place?

     

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.

  • Passing of the Greatest Generation

    Passing of the Greatest Generation

    Salute Ladies and Gentlemen!

    December 7, 1941 was 79 years ago.  A twenty-year-old at the time would be 99 today, almost a centenarian.  My father is 98 and not likely to see 2021.

    We live in a technological age, and despite the pandemic it is relatively easy living for many.  No one is asking our youth to go to foreign lands with the likelihood of not returning.

    If the Twentieth Century has taught us anything, it is that youth has stood up repeatedly despite the dithering of politicians.  Many of this century’s young warfighters continue this proud tradition of defending our nation and our freedoms.

    Born at the dawn of the last century, this generation saw the Great Depression and volunteered for the (hopefully) final global conflict; World War II.  Since Pearl Harbor, our world has changed dramatically and quickly.

    They saw the transformation of the United States into a global Super Power and slogged through some 45 years of the Cold War.  China moved from the backward nation occupied by Japan to its current position.

    The (possible) Chinese saying/curse, “May You Live In Interesting Times” applies to this selfless generation who laid the ground work for our modern world.  On way they invented the transistor in 1947—the foundation of our “Smart Technologies.”

    As they pass from the scene, in the words of Abraham Lincoln at Gettysburg, “It is for us the living, rather, to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought here have thus far so nobly advanced.”

    We must pick up their gauntlet.  In one sense it is a heavy lift; however, those who came before us have lightened our load.

    What Are You Doing to Make Your Parents and Grandparents Proud?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.

  • Covid-19 Positive: Telemedicine Kicked into High Gear

    Covid-19 Positive: Telemedicine Kicked into High Gear

    Crisis Drives Change

    In 2001 this writer approached the Houston medical community, post tropical storm Allison which flooded many basements in the Houston Medical Center with the loss of experimental data and other records.  We proposed the development of an Internet based solution to hold and manage medical records of all types.  The response to my organization’s offer to digitize records was met with disbelief and ultimate rebuke.

    At the time I was employed by a major corporation with the technology and financial resources to accomplish this task.  Sales Objections included privacy, doctors will not ‘buy in,’ insurance will not pay for it and a host of other lame excuses.

    Flash forward to 2020.  Why are thing so different now and the idea of ‘digitalization’ almost universally accepted?

    Twenty years is a career for many, yet it took a crisis this year to kick the medical sector into action at critical mass—Coronavirus, aka Covid-19.  As often the case large organizations are content to stay with the status quo.  Culture, processes, and even individual bonuses incent lethargy and complacency.  This common trait is not limited to one sector.

    Moreover, advances in online telemetry support the physician’s ability to treat many aliments remotely.  The industry did not just ‘jump’ to the current state, it evolved over time.  For example, remote and inaccessible areas such as Antarctica have taken advantage of telemedicine including remotely directed surgeries.

    Democratization

    We may look back on 2020 as the seminal moment when medicine was digitalized.  Despite current access issues such as we are finding with K-12 education, most will have the ability to interact online in the near future.  Moreover, a number of COTS (commercial off the shelf) health solutions such as found in a variety of Smart phone products enable remote diagnosis and monitoring on a global basis.

    The catalyst for taking telemedicine to the next level is Covid-19!  A good Positive.

    How is your organization taking advantage of remote operational technologies?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.

  • MVP: A Case of Failure

    MVP: A Case of Failure

    Not as Easy as it Seems

    When transforming this website to the Word Press platform, this author accepted the “wisdom” of various online sources and used a so called up and coming new Page Builder.  A huge mistake!

    After many failures and indeed public page lockups, I changed to a more established solution—the one used for this writing.  Over this technological journey, I was told by a number of support individuals to ‘deactivate’ plugins and troubleshoot from there.  While this sounds good on paper (or over chat call out), it does now work well when using this technology to run a business.

    Software Architecture

    According to Wikipedia, “the fundamental structures of a software system and the discipline of creating such structures and systems.  Each structure comprises software elements, relations among them, and properties of both elements and relations.  The architecture of a software system is a metaphor, analogous to the architecture of a building.  It functions as a blueprint for the system and the developing project, laying out the tasks necessary to be executed by the design teams.”

    The proliferation of Apps, Plugins and other products are a concern in any Open Source software development process that depends on a global set of independent development firms and individuals.

    As far back as the 1980s systems integrators decried the use of third-party memory cards in DEC mini systems.  The logic was that these organizations could not assure performance if these products were use.  To some extent they were right; however, in many ways it did not matter.

    However, when it came to service or warranty, It did matter.  If the system crashed because of a third-party product the user was on their own.  Loss of revenue and destruction of reputation remained with the customer and not the technology providers.  This was also my experience in 2020; some 30+ years later!

    These systems are not trivial; they are complex.  For example, the following diagram is taken from AWS Best Practices for Word Press. Does your provider manage to this level?

    Does It Matter Now?

    In an era of turn off your plugins to troubleshoot, I am not sure this doesn’t matter—point made above.  How can one run a business or even a personal ‘fun’ site if this error message appears after an upgrade?

    One fears that in the Open Source era Generally Accepted Practices for software development are not rigorously followed.  Imagine if GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Practices) were not followed?  Oh wait, do I hear Enron, MCI et al?  We all know how that ended.

    So, use a ‘free’ plugin to clean up short code.  Hopefully, the tech selected will refresh when the new ultimately happens and incompatibility will not be an issue.  If this your strategy—Good luck!

    Are You Betting Your Company on this So-Called MVP Model?

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    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    You can contact the author as well.

  • Radar: Technology Game Changer!

    Radar: Technology Game Changer!

    The battle of Leyte Gulf in 1944 with over 200,000 individuals involved is possibly the largest naval battle in history.  Hopefully, one of the last ones.

    In that battle, the submarine USS Darter initially detected (on radar) the Japanese task force early on October 23.  Other US naval vessels spotted that armada shortly thereafter on their radar screens.  This advanced knowledge enabled to US Navy to seize the initiative.  After the battle, the Japanese never stood up an equivalent naval force again.

    Technological advantage can be a game changer.  There is evidence of this phenomenon throughout history.  In this instance, the result was the elimination of the adversary’s ability to recover and reengage in a meaningful way.

    History’s Lessons

    Another game changer from that era was the proximity fuse developed by the Applied Physics Laboratory of Johns Hopkins University.  This technology enabled anti-aircraft rounds to explode within 75 feet of an attacking enemy aircraft instead of requiring physical contact which had a poor track record.  Referred to as, “The real secret weapon of World War II,” it is credited with shorting the war.

    Adversity has always led to rapid technological development.  There are indications that the Covid-19 pandemic is fueling an explosion of new ideas that directly address the infection as well as drive performance when the threat has passed.

    Capturing Value

    The conventional approach is to follow the Technology Adoption Life Cycle.  But is that still the realistic model today?  In our article published in 2004 Calculus of Value Model, we argue that the exact opposite is true.

    Advantage can go to those organizations that deploy technology early and codify knowledge obtained as a result.  The resulting ‘unfair advantage’ can change an industry.

    Previously we have made the case that while the concept of Minimum Viable Product aka MVP; a product that Early Adopters will find satisfactory, “The assessment of such technological solutions needs to be robust and thought through.  Not the knee jerk response often seen.”  Meaning that certain risks must be factored in the Value Proposition, but these can be manageable.

    According to Oracle’s Larry Ellison, “If you do everything that everyone else does in business, you’re going to lose.  The only way to really be ahead, is to ‘be different’.”  So Be Different—Start Early!

    How Can You Make New Technologies Your Organizational Game Changer?

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    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We are presenting, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event!!

    You can contact the author as well.

  • Data Bias: The Latent or Unobserved

    Data Bias: The Latent or Unobserved

    In statistics a Latent Variable can be defined as, ‘a variable inferred from observed or measured data.’ Its analysis is often used psychology, economics, and predictive modeling.  This author used Structural Equation Models (SEM) in his 1996 doctoral dissertation, Cross Cultural Negotiations Between Japanese and American Businessmen: A Systems Analysis (Exploratory Study).

    From that abstract, “The use of sophisticated statistical techniques such as structural equation modeling and game theory is becoming increasing more important.  Traditional techniques are known to be limited, particularly in the context of cross-cultural behavioral studies.”

    Survival Bias

    A recent LinkedIn post alerted this writer to the inimitable perspective statistician Abraham Wald brought to the assessment of World War II Allied bomber damage upon return from missions.  He argued that observed anti-aircraft damage was non-crippling since the aircraft remained airworthy and was able to return.

    He surmised that planes that did not come home may have suffered damage to other areas making them unairworthy and hence their data was unobserved.  Based on this analysis, the U.S. Navy beefed-up armor in the less or unaffected areas and this was credited with saving lives and aircraft.

    This type of analysis came to known as Survival Bias which has its proponents and detractors.  On the surface, it seemed intuitively obvious that areas of damage need addressing while not necessarily those statistically showing fewer issues.

    It is not our intent herein to assess its merits and applicability.  Rather to help readers better understand the very nature of big data and its use, especially in predictive and behavioral models.

    Covid-19

    Today, policy and other decision makers are tasked with dealing with a deadly global pathogen.  Apparently developing quickly and spreading exponentially—a super spreading event.  As of this writing has afflicted millions in 188 countries/region in much less than 12 months.

    In this pundit’s opinion, much of the concern, confusion and clearly wrong information regarding this disease and mitigation protocols can be traced to data collection and analysis.  By now most readers will have some familiarity with the chaos associated with these predictive models.

    For example, according to the US National Library of Medicine, National Institute of Health, “A key fact for us all to remember is that, for the majority of countries, we’re not actually counting how many people have the virus—instead were counting the reports of how many people have the virus, and, like all metrics, those numbers vary according to how they’re measured.  An increase in the number of tests being carried out will result in an increase in the number of infections detected.”

    In addition to the Herculean efforts to tame this tiger from the vast medical, scientific, technology and many other disciplines, Structural Equation Modeling is being used to shed additional light on the latent variables.

    Final Thoughts

    The 2020 Coronavirus is an early test of Big Data analysis in support of decision makers both for public policy and non-government organizations.  While performance so far has been weak, this pundit believes great value can come from this effort.

    Data quality must be highly reliable and valid.  Moreover, models must assess what is not seen, the latent variables such as found in Survival Bias.  These two aspects of strong decision support models are crucial.  These are lessons for all of us.

    Where Didn’t the Bullets Hit Your Business Model?

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    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We are presenting, Should Cross Cultural Serious https://rri-ccgame.com/Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely conference!!

    You can contact the author as well.

  • Technology Assessment in the Era of Minimum Viable Product (MVP)

    Technology Assessment in the Era of Minimum Viable Product (MVP)

    App developers have fallen in love with the concept of Minimum Viable Product aka MVP.  Wikipedia defines minimum viable product (MVP) as “a version of a product with just enough features to satisfy early customers and provide feedback for future product development.”

    This development model might make some sense for consumer software or even some business data analytics but how does it work for mission critical software and those apps that allow remote connectivity to those data resources?  MVP is problematic in these cases at best.

    Most mission critical software development organizations understand that robust testing is necessary, yet sometimes the specter of the MVP mentality sneaks its camel nose under the tent.  Think this does not happen?  Think again.

    The Boeing 737 Max 8 is one current example of this phenomena.  One can argue that the costs to this organization, its customers and the flying public have been astronomical and perhaps not measurable.

    Many of us will not be flying any time soon and many months ago this writer has been told by a knowledgeable individual that safe work around for the Max8 software issues have always been readily available—even before the crashes.  There is a more onerous issue that affects everyone on the planet is widely accepted by policy makers.

    We extend the construct of MVP to Minimum Viable Thought.  MVT is defined as, “The version of a decision that the decision makers believe will be accepted by organizational executives and public policy makers.”

    As of publication, this statement is posted on The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington.  “To construct our “Current projection” (the line that shows what we think will most likely happen), we assume that in each location the trend of easing mandates will continue at its current trajectory until the daily death rate reaches a threshold of 8 deaths per million.  If the daily death rate in a location exceeds that threshold, we are assuming that mandates will be reintroduced for a six-week period.”

    We do not dispute modelers making assumptions.  We do that same.  However, this caveat.  Decisions made based modeling assumptions such as these often lead to cataclysmic results.

    The concept of MVP can be a slippery slope.  In an era of rapid software/data release, the risk to the public whether in airplanes or a pandemic can be huge.

    The assessment of such technological solutions needs to be robust and thought through.  Not the knee jerk response often seen.

    How do you assure new technology implementation does not material negatively impact on your business?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

  • Agility, Resiliency, Sustainability

    Agility, Resiliency, Sustainability

    In a recent Harvard Business Review, I was struck by an article about Best Practices for small businesses.  From that piece, “To successfully navigate Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous (VUCA) challenges like Covid-19, family business leaders can look to best practices from another organization that specializes in VUCA situations—the U.S. military’s Special Operations Forces (SOF)” (emphasis added).  There are a lot of good ideas in the article that organizations can implement immediately.  Moreover, we have long recognized that properly vetted and adjusted as necessary, Best Practices from others can add significant value to organizations in other industries.

    Out of the Darkness

    It is easy to be overwhelmed these days.  Mildly put, most if not all organizations were thrown into chaos in less than a month.  Depending on your business you are either partially operating or still waiting to open-up.

    Regardless, how you work in June will be different than early March (~60 days as of this writing).  Traditional recession management and recovery techniques may not be applicable this time.

    There are lots of ideas about how to use technology going forward.  Digitalization, IoT, IT-OT, among others are hawked as THE solution.  Problem is, it is not that simple, and it takes time and money to implement.  Many midsize firms do not have those privileges/resources.

    There are a lot of actions most organizations can take without major CAPEX investments in time and money.

    Years ago, we recognized that certain industrial sectors, particularly those with a high-risk profile such as energy or others deemed to be part of Critical Infrastructures face unique challenges.  Some have a tendency towards incremental change or even the status quo.  Change is often slow with setbacks.

    Moreover, for every major firm there can be thousands of organizations in the supply chain ecosystems all of which must work well if total costs and profitability for all are to be effectively addressed.

    This seemingly daunting task yet it need not be.  There is a solution set available that can help organizations manage through this dark period and into the light, thriving.

    The mission of The Rapid Response Institute is;

    “Helping Clients Achieve Organizational Agility, Resiliency and Sustainability”

    To that end, we have developed solutions, methodologies, and tools enabling enterprises of all sizes to not just survive but thrive after disruptive events.  Much of this is either free or at low cost.

    Rapid Response

    In our 2009 White Paper, Rapid Response Management: Thriving in the New World Order we posited our new approach to managing your business.  “Rapid Response Management (RRM) is an organizational construct or mental model that enables the organization and its key partners to rapidly sense changes and respond accordingly–quickly.  While it maximizes the effectiveness of management knowledge to address change, it is not simply gut feel.  Rather it is a simple yet sophisticated, methodical paradigm any organization can quickly and inexpensively implement.”

    RRM is a creative and well documented method for running your business.  The thinking was well advanced by 2009 and has been further ‘stress tested’ over the past decade.

    We have updated RRM with our Operational Excellence Platform and interested readers are invited to check that out as well.  Our offerings are designed to help our clients get through crises such as Covid-19.

    We are updating this white paper and it will be available as an e-book in the near future.  If you would like to reserve a free copy, Contact us.

    We are here to shed some light during this dark period.  For no cost, no obligation discussion contact us.  We can put decades of experience dealing with business cycle adversity on your team.

    Feel like your trapped?  You’re NOT!

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 on April 9, 2020.  The summit will be offered again soon.  Check it Out!!

    You can contact the author as well.

  • Disrupting Disruption!

    Disrupting Disruption!

    Let me understate, ‘working in the petroleum sector has always been challenging.’  Now we find ourselves in a major economic downturn caused by a Covid-19 pandemic and aided and abetted by an international crude oil price war.

    Once again, many thousands have lost their livelihood and possibly not return to a similar job as the industry consolidates and restructures both organizationally and operationally.  However, much has changed and for the better since this writer first experienced a major retraction in the 1980s.

    Back in the day, choices then included sending hundreds of hardcopy resumes hoping the right person would find/like it out of an overflowing inbox or leave the sector and look for better pastures.  Collectively, impacted individuals tried both.  Certainly, there was not a feeling that we were in command of our destiny, even if we knew someone who could help us.

    Today, we are the Master and Commander of our voyage!

    I See Things

    Visions of armies of energy workers becoming software programmers are probably hallucinations.  Some might but many will not have the ability, temperament or interest in such a feat.

    There are always winners and losers in any disruption.  Already, there are signs that the traditional retail sales processes are accelerating on a path they were already on.  Upscale restaurants now feature ‘take out.’

    Some who once worked for manufacturers, oil producers and other core companies will most likely find new careers with suppliers to those firms.  This may be especially true of supply chain, business process and technologies such as IT and engineering.  For example, operators will look to Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) and qualified suppliers to implement their Digitalization business models.

    Those with technical skills such as Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics (STEM) will be in demand for both recall to older business models but more likely to enable new ones.  Other emerging energy sectors include renewables and their derivatives.

    Entire, global business models are under scrutiny and change is inevitable.  Older sluggish companies will be replaced with new agile entrants.  Just look at how Amazon evolved from an online book seller to their current position.

    How to Disrupt

    What if I want to strike out?  For those who feel alone and not sure which way to turn, there is help available right now!  As far as I know everything listed below is at no cost and RRI knows these resources directly—no third parties.

    • “Esri, the global leader in location intelligence, announced that it would provide free access to its ArcGIS platform and training resources to professionals worldwide who are impacted by work furloughs during the COVID-19 outbreak.
    • Do you have a great idea for an energy-based startup company, but not sure where to start? I am on the leadership team of the Global Energy Mentors and we provide free mentoring services.  Check us out and you do not have to reside in the Houston metro area!
    • Looking for help from the Small Business Administration and again, don’t know who to call? Let us know and will put you in contact with the Houston office.
    • There are other opportunities available where we can help you. For example, the BBL Ventures Energy & Industrial Tech Challenge and Eunike Ventures it’s Alliance Partners are seeking innovative technologies via our 2020 Technology Open Call.  There are others as well and to date, the Innovation and Acceleration sector remains active.
    • Got a quick question? Contact us for 30 minutes of free online/email consulting limited to the first 50 and perhaps more.  We know of numerous additional resources and hopefully can direct you.

    Moreover, almost anyone can develop an App about any subject or issue.  What’s bugging you for which there is NO App or other solution?  Guess what, you now the Subject Matter Expert in that field.  Search App Development for all manor of free or low cost tools and help.

    Changes of the magnitude discussed herein can be daunting but there is no reason for any of us to fail in this transformation.  When faced with few or no options in your current career environment—What do you have to lose?

    Why let this disruption control you?  You control it!

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 on April 9, 2020.  The summit will be offered again soon.  Check it Out!!

    You can contact the author as well.

  • Tumultuous Decade: What’s Next for Oil & Gas?

    Tumultuous Decade: What’s Next for Oil & Gas?

    April 20, 2020 marks the tenth anniversary of one of the most horrific incidents in the upstream oil and gas sector—Deepwater Horizon.  In addition to the tragic loss of eleven lives, the sector forever changed.  Immediate restructuring of federal oversight resulted in the establishment of the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) and their subsequent Safety Culture Policy.

    The industry changed too.  One of the first efforts following Macondo was the formation of the Marine Well Containment Company.  Its mission is to rapidly respond to Deepwater incidents in the Gulf of Mexico.  Subsequent organizations are also positioned around the world.

    Moreover, the industry embraced Safety Culture and continues to improve based upon Systemic Safety Cultures across organizational ecosystems.  These processes are incorporated into Operations Management Systems that incorporate SEMS as part of Operational Excellence Initiatives.

    In 2014, the sector faced another slap in the face with the collapse of oil prices, yet again.  Now it is the double whammy of the Covid-19 pandemic coupled with the price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia.

    Darkest Before the Dawn

    Each time the industry is forced to retrench, it follows a predictable pattern.  Reduction in force (layoffs), corporate restructuring and turning to technology are among the most common steps.

    This chart from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis shows the employment levels for the upstream sector since the early 1970s.  One can make the case that the level of employment in the sector is flat at best.  One likely cause is automation and the extensive use of information technology to manage the business.

    Note: This chart is current as of March 2020

    In 1970, the US population was a little more than 205 million.  Now it tops 330 million.  This supports a hypothesis that the per capita employment by the sector is decreasing.  We expect this to continue.

    The Digital Oilfield marches on with the advent of IT-OT Convergence, Digitalization, etc.  This process has been underway since at least the late 1970s with the advent of the first computerized data acquisition systems.  Likely, much longer if one considers for example, the invention of electric well logging by the Schlumberger brothers in 1926.

    Certainly, other technological advances have contributed as well.  The often maligned fracturing the rock traces its roots back the beginning of the industry (circa 1862).  Contemporary hydraulic fracturing was started by Halliburton in 1949 and shale ‘fracing’ by Mitchell Energy & Development Corporation during the 1990s.

    While we have not done the detailed research, historically oil companies have outsourced to engineering firms, IT companies and others that provide a service as opposed to full time employees.  Today’s disrupted employees may find better careers in the emerging sectors that support petroleum operations as well as other sectors.

    Schumpeter’s Creative Destruction is a work in ‘the patch’ today.  A lot has happened in the Deepwater Horizon incident.  Here’s to calmer waters this next ten years!

    How Are You Positioning Your Career to Capitalize on Disruption?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 on April 9, 2020.  The summit will be offered again soon.  Check it Out!!

    You can contact the author as well.

  • Hanging App?

    Hanging App?

    By one measure, the US presidential primary season is off to a rough start.  In a small state, counting the ballots became a challenge.  Wasn’t technology supposed to solve the problems of past confusions?

    Yet the mechanism seemingly failed—again!  How is this different from the Boeing Max 8 disaster?  In one sense it isn’t.

    Disclaimer:  The only information this author has on the recent electoral IT problem is publicly available and he is not aware of anyone involved in that process that he may know personally.  This piece is only an opinion about a technology issue.

    Technology Adoption Process

    App developers strive to get to MVP as rapidly as possible.  Wikipedia defines a Minimum Viable Product as, “A version of a product with just enough features to satisfy early customers and provide feedback for future product development.  Gathering insights from an MVP is often less expensive than developing a product with more features, which increases costs and risk if the product fails, for example, due to incorrect assumptions.”

    Speed is of the essence in software development.  Yet, a rapid time to market should not sacrifice adequate analysis and assurance the software is robustly ‘stress tested.’

    Apps are moving from simple tools designed to call an independent driver of transport or order a burger.  They are now integral parts of enterprise solutions with broad implications if they fail.  This changes the fundamental project development process and benchmarks for release.  This is true for all App developers, even if their employee base is one or the development process is outsourced entirely.

    Release Maturity

    Most new technologies start is some’s ‘garage.’  Whether Steve Jobs’ or 3M, the processes are ad hoc and getting a so-called ‘Alpha’ product is the goal.  Those third parties who accept and test it know their risks and exposure.  Such customers would never use that release in a production environment.

    Other maturity models include Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) by NASA and the European Association of Research and Technology Organisations.  At a minimum, testing must assure it is fit-for-purpose and that the product can ‘scale’ to meet the expected demand.

    Technology vendors to ‘critical infrastructure’ sectors such as oil and gas often express exasperation at the sometime slow take up of new solutions.  Individuals that take excessive risks deploying new technology may literally be putting their career at risk as well as their critical processes.  Therefore, they tend to be risk averse.

    There are many examples of what not to do rolling out new technology.  This month’s primary election is just the latest.  The adage, ‘no one wants to make the front page of The Wall Street Journal’ has a lot of truth to it.  Make sure you and your customer get media coverage for the right reasons.

    How Do You Know Technology is Ready for Enterprise Wide Deployment?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to other third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    You can contact the author as well.

    End Notes

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_readiness_level

      https://therrinstitute.com/critical-infrastructure-sectors/

  • 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 or More!

    10, 20, 30, 40, 50 or More!

    The advent of 5 G so soon after 4 G—Humm.  What’s next?  How many G’s are there?

    In 1965, Gordon Moore put forth the construct that the density of transistors in integrated circuits doubled each year.  The so-called Moore’s Law has governed technology growth ever since.  However; over 50 years later, some argue that we may be far up that power curve.  One conjectures if the latter statement is correct.

    In 1899, Charles H. Duell then the Commissioner of US patent is purported to have said, “Everything that can be invented has been invented.”  Mr. Duell died in 1920 so he missed many of the ‘new’ things we now take for granted.

    Marketers tend to categorize in buckets; Boomers, Gen Xers, Millennials and so forth.  Do any of these labels matter?  Probably not.  The same is true for technology tags as well.

    Life, technology, knowledge et al marches on, just like it has throughout human history.  Will we see the advent of 50 G networks?  Most likely; with 100 G hot on its heels!

    Less we forget, the current version of the cell phone (iPhone and its equivalents) was first released in 2007.  Much has changed in the last 13 years and we can expect that arc to continue with disruptive new mobile technology crashing in at some point.

    Agility

    Most think of an ‘agile enterprise’ as information technology driven.  In this writer’s opinion, this is a narrow perspective.  The word ‘agility’ is defined in terms of power and thinking.  In other words, the ability to make good decisions with the capacity to implement them.

    In this hyper-technology environment, it is not the adoption of a particular rendition, but the capability to incorporate the appropriate new in an economic manner.  This is true whether the organization is an ‘early adopter’ or even a ‘laggard.’

    For decades, organizational strategy has been enabled by technology.  There is no reason to change that model with many G’s to follow!

    How Does Your Organization Ingest New Technologies?

     

    Enjoy this flash back to the 1960’s.

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to other third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    You can contact the author as well.

    End Notes

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/4G

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law

      https://www.dictionary.com/browse/agility

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_adoption_life_cycle

  • Reflection: Are We Near a Digital Tipping Point?

    Reflection: Are We Near a Digital Tipping Point?

    Generally, this time of year humans are wont to look back on the closing year and assess the good and the bad, and dare I say the ugly?  We celebrate successes, review the not so successes, and what is left undone.  This process prepares us for the New Year’s resolutions that are often then broken.

    Today, we will see lots of stories on the accomplishments of the year, notables that passed from this life and other celebrations and questions about the waning hours.  In this piece, let us ask another question.

    The subject of the Man—Machine relationship has long been the subject of comment and speculation.  It remains so.  Where are we along this path?

    But as the march on a continuum towards the future, it is time to assess the level of Maturity of our Operational Excellence as a function of IT-OT.

    Challenges remain.  Recently, the Boeing’s Starliner space vehicle failed to reach its planned orbit.  The glitch is apparently in the capsule’s clock where a programming error misinterpreted the stage of the mission.

    News media reporting suggests that if astronauts had been on board, they may have been able to override the system and correct the problem.  This is an area we have addressed herein on several occasions.  When does the human act?  Recent articles include:

    The decision model whether to override the computer remains elusive.  Likely, it will for some time.

    In this writer’s opinion, it is currently difficult to develop an appropriate governance model for this emerging man-machine interface.  That said, the task is upon society and individuals and organizations must proactively engage.

    Not Just Digitalization

    There is much ado about the promise of digitalization and speculation about its ability to be a game changer.  One wonders how any technology available to all warrants such status?

    Since the advent of the Turing machine, circa 1936 and its enablement of the winning of Word War II (at least in Europe), there has been a level of trust in information technology that is not always warranted.  Today, how many of us will sit with our children in the backseat of a driverless automobile?

    Human factors must be considered when new technology models are put forth.  After all, humans still govern, right?

    Maturity Assessment

    Building on the CMMI and our own maturity model development methodology we put forth a set of constructs.  Beginning in 2004, when we released our Roadmap study.  It was one of the earliest, if not the first industry wide assessment of the so-called digital oilfield and guide for organizations to transform themselves with this enabling technological model.

    As part of that study we posited a maturity model that still has applicability for heavy industry and its use of information technologies to manage the business.  An updated version is shown in the following figure.

    For many organizations, Level 3 is satisfactory and accomplished the required.  One can argue that an airline autopilot would be at least Level 4.

    The current issues Boeing has with is space capsule and 737 suggests that may not be the case.  By the way, this is not limited to this manufacturer, others have similar issues as well.

    In the opinion of this writer, as a society we are at best Level 2 when it comes to digitalization.  What do readers think?

    Paraphrasing a famous election cycle quote, “It’s the software, stupid.”  Are we near a digital tipping point?  Perhaps not.

    Much work is yet to be done.  Fear not for the robots taking your job—at least for the moment.

    What is Your Digitalization Management Maturity Level?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to other third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    You can contact the author as well.

    End Notes

      https://www.space.com/boeing-starliner-oft-fails-to-reach-correct-orbit.html

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turing_machine

      https://therrinstitute.com/maturity-models/

      (2004, September). Roadmap to Enterprise Optimization: A Guide to the Impact of Information Driven Field Operations on the Petroleum Corporation.

      https://www.popularmechanics.com/flight/airlines/a26854898/plane-automation-crashes-incidents/

  • Running Across an Open Field: Strategy for Disruptive Technology?

    Running Across an Open Field: Strategy for Disruptive Technology?

    Several weeks ago, as an amateur history buff, I was watching a documentary about World War I.  During one segment the commentator discussed the apparent fact that if soldiers refused to charge out of their trenches across an open field into the teeth of waiting machine guns they would be shot.

    The brutality of such a command by (so-called) leadership is appalling.  It may have been one thing for Alexander the Great’s armies to engage in open battles with sharp pointed objects as weapons.

    It is quite another for General Pickett’s infantry at Gettysburg to charge cannons and 50+ years later to repeatedly try the same tactic (by both sides) at horrific costs.  Generals always fight the last war, so the saying goes.

    This blog is not about some of history’s follies, it is about learning so as not to repeat the mistakes of others.  These lessons apply to readers’ daily business world as well.

    When New Technology is Deployed

    New disruptive technology can tear the societal fabric.  Some old jobs and companies disappear, and new ones thrive.  This process has been repeated since antiquity.

    Our culture is having this dialogue today regarding digitalization and its suite of technological driven change, i.e., Blockchain, AI, etc.  Principal issues that must be addressed include Human Factors Engineering (HFE).

    “HFE places the human operator at the center of the complex operating environment.  HFE recognizes that this individual or set of individuals is the puppet master and is responsible for the entire show.”  In other words how do we interact with the new technological reality.

    Reliable and valid HFE is the key to successful digitalization initiatives.  It will be the vital to whatever is next as well.

    Tyranny of the Minority

    From political science, “For centuries, theorists have worried about the potential of unrestrained democracy to lead to a tyranny of the majority, in which majority groups ride roughshod over the rights of minorities.  What we often see today is instead a kind of tyranny of the minority: a system in which a particularly extreme and motivated fraction of the populace can wield outsized power in the face of a majority which is either too indifferent or too scared to oppose it,” (italics added).

    In most organizations, there are fewer leaders than those who fabricate a ‘work product.’  The responsibility of leadership is to set the vision, mission and goal as well as enabling the organization with the tools and support necessary to reach targeted stakeholder value.

    But what if this minority group is the slowest to come to grips with disruptive forces?  In the face of newness, they may ‘keep doing what they have always been doing.”  In such an environment, the organization will likely not reap the same reward as in the past.

    Does too indifferent or too scared describe your organization’s ecosystem workforce?  One suspects It would be good to know.

    Fast Fail

    In our last blog we discussed the rapid assessment of technology and when to drop it if it does not appear to be working out.  Perhaps, we should treat managerial processes the same way.  After a horrific and visible failure in leadership, conceivably one preserves best by looking for alternative?

    If charging head long across an open field leads to disaster, why keep doing it?  While a counter argument might be that we had no tools to defeat those equipped with the new technology, to this writer, that logic is suspect.

    Flanking an enemy’s line or using guerrilla tactics, et. al. are as old as human confrontation.  Unconventional warfare has a long record of documented success.

    The business lexicon is loaded with military terminology.  We often speak of business as if it is warfare, when of course it is not.  There are lessons to be learned about human and organizational behavior, however.

    Decades ago, the concept of Guerrilla Marketing was the rage.  With the advent of social media, it has advanced, and the methodology is available to all.  Huge budgets and massive media campaigns are no longer necessary.

    Head-to-Head the biggest ‘guy’ usually wins.  So, if you’re not him/her, DON’T DO IT!!  However, the small mammals may displace slow moving dinosaurs.

    Agile is not an IT term.  It should be the state of mind of leaders at all levels.  To charge across the open business landscape into technology designed to destroy your organization remains folly.

    How Are You Leading the Charge into the Future?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to other materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See this 3:15 minute clip for more information on living in a World War I trench.  Pathetic way for leaders to force those under their command to live.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    You can contact the author as well.

    End Notes

      https://consult2050.com/job-disruption-due-to-digitalization/

      https://therrinstitute.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/HRM-in-Process-Industries-Sustained-by-Human-Factors.pdf

      Ibid.

      https://areomagazine.com/2019/04/02/the-tyranny-of-the-minority-and-how-to-prevent-it/

      https://therrinstitute.com/lessons-from-the-seventies/

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guerrilla_marketing

  • Lessons from the Seventies

    Lessons from the Seventies

    At lunch the other day and for whatever reason, the history of the 3M Post It Note became a subject of our conversation.  This technological marvel unveiled in the 1970s is still widely used today.

    As with other new or disruptive technologies, the ‘sticky note’ was panned at first and for some time.  According to Wikipedia, the technology was first developed in 1968.  It was not until 1974 that it gained some internal company support.

    When finally introduced in 1977, the pilot results were unsatisfactory.  However, things started to change in 1978 when a small (focus) group of consumers were positive about the product.

    The United States roll-out began in the spring of 1980, followed by Europe and Canada in 1981.  A bit of trivia, the reason it was originally yellow was because yellow colored scrap paper was readily available at its inception.

    Earlier the day of our lunch meeting, a discussion revolved around how long it might take an idea to become a fundable start-up company.  Several participants argued that with proper guidance, the process still might take up to two years.  This pundit argued that many entrepreneurs would see that as too long and become disinterested.

    The legacy of the Post It Note suggests that this pundit might be incorrect.  The lowly sticky note did not even begin its journey to become a Unicorn until twelve years after its technology was discovered.

    In 2015, we penned a blog, Titans of the 1940s Today.  The basic premise of that piece was when commenting about the Internet of Things (IoT) and its complexity, individuals such as Richard Feynman and John von Neumann (father of the 1945 computer architecture that is the basis of modern computing) had developed solutions for today prior to this author’s birth.

    We stand on the shoulders of these and other giants.  The challenge of every generation has been to build on what those who came before advanced.  So it remains today!

    Body of Knowledge

    Human kind has developed a rich body of knowledge in all areas of endeavor.  It is readily available for entrepreneurs as well as those employed by all types of organizations.  This knowledge base has been addressed in this blog and other writings by the author.  Interested readers are invited to review my blogs and newsletters dating back to the last century.

    Our march through history provides all of us a ‘go-by’ that can shorten our learning curve.  One example this author often cites is the depth of historical knowledge of management.  Contrary to many gurus, humans have managed others and processes for many millennia.

    Fail Fast, Fail Often?

    If 3M or Feynman et al practiced this technology development model as most interpret it, our world might be a lesser place.  Give up and move on to the next?

    One interpretation suggests, “Originating from Silicon Valley and its ocean of start-ups, the real aim of “fail fast, fail often,” is not to fail, but to be iterative.  To succeed, we must be open to failure—sure—but the intention is to ensure we are learning from our mistakes as we tweak, reset, and then redo if necessary.”

    This same article goes on to state, “Thomas Edison, by example, ‘failed’ 9,000 times before he was successful with his light bulb invention.”  Perseverance can be a lonely quality!

    Don’t lose heart.  Great ideas abound but must gestate.  It is often said that we find our soulmate when we least expect to—I know I did.  Progress is an iterative process fueled by creativity and critical thinking.

    Is Your Idea a Unicorn Waiting to be Born and Mature?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to other materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    You can contact the author more information as well.

    End Notes

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-it_Note

      https://therrinstitute.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Titans-of-the-1940s-Today-April-20-2015.pdf

      https://therrinstitute.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/1993-Management-Theory-Evolution-Not-Revolution.pdf

      https://www.forbes.com/sites/danpontefract/2018/09/15/the-foolishness-of-fail-fast-fail-often/#1db35b0e59d9

  • Want – Like – Need

    Want – Like – Need

    Years ago, as part of a never-ending series of company reorganizations, a team of our change management consultants headed to the ‘field’ to interview users.  Upon their return, they presented an extensive list of technology investments deemed necessary to remain competitive.

    Their list focused on technology and not business concerns.  Wondering, I asked who they interviewed.  Proudly, they proclaimed the “field engineers.”  When queried–did they talk with district managers, regional engineers and others with P&L or other managerial responsibilities, the answer was “no.”

    This very expensive process by a major professional services organization simply generated a wish list of junior employees.  It was what they thought they WANTED.

    In our current jargon, “cool stuff.”  Needless to say, none of these projects were funded.  Wasted time and money by those not familiar with our business!

    Today, we are driven to LIKE everything!  CRM systems demand input before we have even procured the product or service.  Log on to any given website and the request to complete a survey will hit you before you read the first line.  Five stars or thumbs-up emojis appears to be the goal.

    Do wants and likes add value?  Perhaps a like is a statement of preference, but perhaps the consumer wants the digital driven question to just go away without the hassle of someone begging for a higher ranking like.  Fibbing to surveys has become a national pastime.

    Business should be most concerned about what a prospect or returning customer NEED.  What pain point or problem does your product/service solve?  If you can’t answer that question, no amount of wants and likes will add to your bottom line.

    I may want a hamburger and go to a fast food restaurant with lots of likes.  However, if I am in a hurry and their preference is clearly to move cars via the drive-through faster than those of us waiting inside, my need to eat quickly will not be met.  I may leave without my meal or most likely not respond to a survey seeking likes.  Then never return!

    That lost customer will never surface in any analysis—not even one star.  Enough of those responses and the business will be in jeopardy and management my not even know why.  Collecting likes should never be a Key Performance Indicator (KPI).

    Finding the Pain

    In a recent Global Energy Mentors leadership meeting, an investment group recounted their business model as one that focused on identifying organizational ‘pain’ points.  Once a specific pain was articulated, the search for new technologies that would address/resolve that pain was undertaken.

    This model flies in the face of Steve Job’s, “A lot of times, people don’t know what they want until you show it to them.”  That may be and sometimes unknown needs are uncovered.

    However, in critical infrastructure sectors where failure is not be an option because it can be very expensive solving a known need is usually most important.  Without exception, this entrepreneur’s success has been focusing on addressing industrial client known pain points.  As an example, our EVPM modeling process demands input from customer groups.

    In this blog series, we have referred to successful change management that comes from addressing the—what’s in it for me question.  From a customer perspective; freeing ‘me’ from known pain is often more valuable than alleviating pain I did not know I had.

    Does Your Value Proposition Solve a Need, Address a Want, or Simply Generate a Like?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to other materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    You can contact the author more information as well.

    End Notes

      http://globalenergymentors.org/

      https://www.helpscout.com/blog/why-steve-jobs-never-listened-to-his-customers/

      https://therrinstitute.com/brand-your-digital-oilfield-culture-internalize-its-transformation/

  • It’s the Economics Stupid!

    It’s the Economics Stupid!

    Since it was first uttered in the early 1990s, the phrase “It’s the economy stupid” has been used and misused extensively.  Let’s squander the lexicon one more time.

    The US ‘silly’ political season is well underway and forecast to last almost 13 more months—no telling what voodoo economics will emerge.  Those of us with our business noses to the grindstone must ride this stormy weather to a safe port next November.

    Most have an interest in the macroeconomic policies nation states put forth but other than voting and perhaps lobbying, there is little many can do to materially impact the economy.  What we can do is focus on the economics of our business—CAPEX.  Hence, our daily mantra should be, “It’s the Economics Stupid.”

    What Is Your Value to the Customer?

    For over the fifteen our organization has been, “Helping Clients Achieve Organizational Agility, Resiliency and Sustainability.”  Assisting clients develop and articulate a viable economic value proposition has been one of the most elusive and vexing challenges.

    There is a strong tendency to make statements that are Overstated, Not Demonstrable, and Not Defendable.  Declarations such as, “Enhanced credit control system for partners through increased information visibility” are effectively meaningless—yes, this is an actual quotation from a software company.  Customers are left with the question, “What does that mean for me?”

    Translate Technology into the Language of Business

    If you leave your customer with the above and/or other questions regarding your value to their enterprise, likely the sale will not close.  Probably, a more coherent competitor will leave with the deal.

    CAPEX always undergoes extensive scrutiny; even at the Board level in some cases.  While new and cool technology may ultimately be disruptive and of extremely high value, peddlers must speak the language of the Chief Financial Officer and her staff.  These are ‘green’ deals!

    Those tasked with generating revenue from technological solutions must also take on the role of translator.  Bridging the cultural differences between cool stuff and the bottom line requires a Rosetta Stone.

    The Economic Value Proposition Matrix® model (EVPM) was originally developed with a Super Independent oil and gas operator at the first part of the century to become that Rosetta Stone.  Working with customers, technology providers can now prepare for the inevitable decision by the CFO.  Usually, the vendor will not attend said meeting but preparing the customer staff to make the case is mandatory.

    This video tells the whole story in less than 43 minutes.  Is winning your next deal worth an investment of three quarters of an hour?  If not, keep doing what your doing and hope for a different result.

    The video makes the case that technology offerings often seems similar.  The same buzzwords and euphemisms often confused clients and make it appear that since the solutions are basically the same, just go with the low dollar.  Rising above this clutter is required to be successful.

    How is Your Value Proposition Better Than Your Competitors’?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to third party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    You can contact the author more information as well.

    End Notes

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/It%27s_the_economy,_stupid

      https://www.forbes.com/sites/briandomitrovic/2018/12/02/george-h-w-bushs-voodoo-rhetoric/#26f9ad21798a

      https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042415/what-difference-between-operating-expense-and-capital-expense.asp

     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rosetta_Stone

  • In Defense of Humans—Machines Are Not Ready Yet

    In Defense of Humans—Machines Are Not Ready Yet

    I recently submitted an internal organizational document that was spellchecked in addition to my review; several times.  One sentence where there the intent was to say, “that which is …” was change to “that witch is …”

    Did I type it wrong or did ‘auto correct’ take over the decision process?  In any event spellcheck did not perform adequately against minimal Quality Assurance standards.  And how many of us ‘fat finger’ text messages?

    Is this is the technology that is going to drive me to work safely over 200 days a year; round trip?  I hope not.

    One pervasive message—technology gets better with time (more mature).  Is this true?

    How old is spellcheck?  By some accounts it dates to the 1960s.  Most believe by the late 1970s.  So close to half a century.  Yet!

    Usually a spellchecker is not used in a life or death situation.  That is unless it’s for your resume or job application!  However, what about software that is utilized for critical processes, i.e., medicine, process control, etc.

    There are many examples where apparent software failures have negatively impacted human life.  This pundit has written this subject including a look at Man Machine Codependency.  In another blog we commented on problems associated with valid and reliable analysis of Big Data.

    In this author’s opinion, software is getting better and while most likely will not be perfect, will change our daily processes.  The human overlords will need to be trained and/or retrained for the digitalization era.

    This cautionary tale is not about this writer’s inability to use word processing tools.  As we depend on these tools for critical decision making, we must have the core knowledge of the subject we are tackling.

    During a class on digitalization for my master’s level students, I put forth several examples where errors were made by various software applications.  Most had a level of comedy to them, but ALL have potential real-world consequences (bold font).

    • All People in Canada are the Same Age—Demographics for Census or Marketing
    • In Excel 2007, multiplying 77.1 times 850 yielded 100,000 instead of the accurate answer 65,535—Accounting or Engineering
    • The Making of a Fly, a classic work in developmental biology, was listed on Amazon.com as having 17 copies for sale: 15 used from $35.54, and two new from $23,698,655.93 (plus $3.99 shipping)–Procurement
    • Finally, Airline Disaster on Autopilot—Safety for the Traveling Public

    This writer has authored books, articles, speeches, presentations, and blogs for many years.  Arguably, he can claim some experience as a writer.  Subject Matter Expert?

    In one instance, the ‘witch’ word won over my intent.  Did the technology cause this error?  Probably, as the goddess of Halloween is not something I typically pontificate about—not on my radar, so to speak.

    Humans can rule for the foreseeable future.  That is unless we seed to the technology.  Most importantly, algorithmic errors can lead to cataclysmic business and even life events.

    Finally, I spellchecked this blog before publication, and it caught the ‘witch’ word this time.  Go figure.

    How Prepared is Your Organization to Oversee the Digitalization Transformation?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to other materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    You can contact the author more information as well.

    End Notes

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spell_checker

      https://therrinstitute.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Man-Machine-Codependency-September-22-2014.pdf

      https://therrinstitute.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Big-Data-Revisited-December-15-2016.pdf

      https://consult2050.com/job-disruption-due-to-digitalization/

  • Man—Machine: Extension or Versus?

    Man—Machine: Extension or Versus?

    Are the emerging machines our friend or foe?  The debut of new technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), Internet of Things IoT) and a host of others seem to be drowning us as we drink from a technological fire hose.  Additionally, driverless vehicles, the Gig Economy et al. are conspiring to eliminate truck drivers and full-time jobs.

    Politicians lament this progress and promise, guaranteed basic income and re-training designed transform energy extraction employees into 50 something coders.  Recent college grads are told their (high debt) degrees are worthless and others advised not to seek higher education.  What in the world are we to do?

    Well one learned, well known observer has a plan.  Fortunately, a cinematographer has captured it in the following clip.  A little over a minute long.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W97RmQCnwa4

    Well, maybe Chicken Little is not the best source for guidance.  But again, it does look like aliens played a role.  Perhaps, these new machines are really alien inspired!

    In our real world, the ‘only constant is change’ and barring a meteorite hitting one on the head, if not embraced change needs to be tolerated.  Since this writer graduated from college in 1970 prepared to enter the nuclear power industry (we all know how well that sector fared), several new (then unknown) industries now employ millions across the globe.  Including, me!

    To be sure other sectors have shrunk and even disappeared.  Most employed by those sectors had to adapt to a new business climate.  Many thrived—some did not!

    There is no doubt that individuals need to remain flexible and ‘skill relevant’ in a fast-paced market.  This was true 100 years ago and likely will be so in another 100 years.

    It Can Be Done

    3M Corporation, formerly known as the Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing Company was founded in 1902.  Initially, it provided heavy industrial products such as sandpaper.  A need for innovation was identified early in its history due to quality issues.  The firm has evolved to one with a global footprint that sells a wide variety of industrial and consumer products.

    The company has codified its Innovation Culture—”Employing the Thirty Percent Rule, 30% of each division’s revenues must come from products introduced in the last four years.  This is tracked rigorously, and employee bonuses are based on successful achievement of this goal.”

    This Agility evolved from the founding of a heavy industrial firm that started innovating early.  This and other success stories suggest than NO firm and NO employee/supplier need fear even dramatic change.  Adapt YES, give up NO.

    Are the emerging machines our friend or foe?  I guess the answer is, “It depends.”  Just like it has been since humans invented fire and found a stick to clobber something/someone with.

    President Theodore Roosevelt is credited with saying, “Keep your eyes on the stars, and your feet on the ground.”  Likely, the sky will not fall.  More likely we may be hit by Isaac Newton’s (inspirational) apple.

    Is Your Innovative Sky Falling or Is What’s Hitting You Really a Golden Apple?

    For More Information

    This subject is touched upon by this blogger herein and in other venues.  Readers are invited to review these materials with particular attention to Job Disruption Due To Digitalization: Myths And Legends—June 1, 2019.

    In the research for this blog, several versions of the Chicken Little animation were found.  In your spare time, you may find several of them very amusing.

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate these films and does not have a relationship with their producers and distributors.  Provided for fun and entertainment only.

    You can contact the author more information as well.

    End Notes

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3M

      https://hbr.org/2013/08/the-innovation-mindset-in-acti-3

      https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/theodore_roosevelt_136001

  • Celebrate Your Independence: Taking Charge of Your Career

    Celebrate Your Independence: Taking Charge of Your Career

    Today, my country celebrates its 243rd birthday.  Many observe the day with family and friends and enjoy fireworks.  Consumption of hamburgers and hot dogs will most likely be huge.

    No one in the United States is still alive from the time when the colonists rowdily left Great Britain.  Moreover, the United Kingdom is one of this country’s staunchest allies and has been for decades.  For many, the day is a time for reflection and joy.  For some it is largely symbolic.

    However, there are many lessons from history and as the saying goes, “Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”  So what can today’s population learn from those that took the ultimate risk in that day; “We pledge to each other our lives, our fortunes, and our sacred honor.”

    Despite some of the well discussed faults of this country, not many of us today are asked to pledge it all.  However, increasingly, we are being asked to take charge of our careers.

    Certainly, our lives and fortunes depend on how we manage our profession.  The 9 to 5 days of ole are long gone, if they truly existed.

    Many pundits, including this author have addressed the changing job market and the new role of digitalization.  In fact, we recently addressed this issue in depth; Job Disruption Due To Digitalization: Myths And Legends.  Interested readers are invited to read that piece.

    Much like colonialists of almost 300 years ago, we can no longer depend on the mother company to take care of our career needs.  Proactive men and women at all stages of their professional life can be more successful than with the old career model.  Passive individuals will reap what they sow as well.

    Enjoy you holiday weekend and get back to work next week actively managing your own career.  Happy Birthday, America!

    You Own Your Career, So What Are You Doing to Assure Your Personal Equity Growth?

    For More Information

    You can contact the author more information.

    End Notes

      https://www.philforhumanity.com/Those_Who_Ignore_History_are_Doomed_to_Repeat_It.html

      http://founding.com/our-lives-our-fortunes-and-our-sacred-honor/

      https://consult2050.com/job-disruption-due-to-digitalization/