The Rapid Response Institute

Tag: serious game

Dot Bomb 2.0 — ai Style
Are we doing this again with Artificial Intelligence?

On March 10, 2000, a five-year dotcom bubble bursts on the Nasdaq Index. Even blue-chip tech companies lost more than 80% of their market value and it would be 15 years before Nasdaq would see that peak again. “The dotcom bubble, also known as the Internet bubble, grew out of a combination of the presence of speculative or fad-based investing, the abundance of venture capital funding for startups, and the failure of dotcoms to turn a profit. Investors poured money into Internet startups during the 1990s hoping they would one day become profitable. Many investors and venture capitalists abandoned a cautious approach for fear of not being able to cash in on the growing use of the Internet.”
At the height of the dotcom hype, organizations were changing their name (not just the domain) to include this suffix, i.e. Acme.com. This attempt to differentiate almost became silly and the butt of jokes.
Increasingly, this pundit is seeing a similar thought process when it comes to artificial intelligence. The new marketing moniker/domain is now Acme.ai. We predict .ai identification will end in flames as did .com. This is not to say artificial intelligence will go away but that it will become mainstream, just as the Internet did not fade into marketing oblivion. Online business is now just the way we do business and access to it is available to all at a marginal cost that approaches zero.
Branding
Much of this section is adapted from our report prepared for a United Nations Agency.
The concept of the Brand is well established in marketing literature and practice. The Brand is a messaging vehicle that seeks to position all consumers and stakeholders “on the same page.” As discussed herein, it is a powerful construct and may be of useful to the nuclear power sector as it seeks to embody an AI Culture into all stakeholders.
The theory of the Brand Wheel is addressed herein. To address the Key Themes and concerns raised during the conference, it appears that “AI Culture” may need to become a “Brand.” Strong Brands generate a powerful emotional response!
For example, a positive brand such as BMW’s “the ultimate driving machine” (at least in the USA) transcend other issues such as the high cost of maintenance of these automobiles. Negative branding often can never be overcome as the Coca Cola Company learned when they launched “New Coke” in 1985. This company almost ruined a long-standing strong brand!
Construct
We put forth a Brand mental model for debate within the industry. In this section, the construct or set of organizing ideas for consideration are developed.
In accordance with the theory, the AI Culture Brand Wheel (High Level Framework) is composed of two major categories:
Facts & Symbols or those components of the Brand that address the “hard” and often more measurable aspects.
What the Product, Service, or Solution does for ME
How I would Describe the Product, Service, or Solution
Brand Personality addresses the more emotional side of the Brand
How the Brand make ME look
How the Brand makes ME feel
Populating the Wheel
The Groups (developed in a workshop) in the following diagram are believed to be representative of major issues the sector faces. It follows that any marketing message to stakeholders should address their concerns.
These four quadrants were populated with over twenty Groups from the Affinity Diagram process. This is a high-level approach to populate the wheel with the almost 200 AI Culture issues (variables) identified from participants.
The following table shows the Groups by Brand Wheel Quadrant and the Rationale behind the categorization. The focus is on the individual person and how he or she relates to the AI Culture Brand. By extension, how individual stakeholders feel is how their organization or group feels about the Brand.
The Brand Wheel is an easy-to-use model that helps organization position themselves in crowded market segments.
Graphically, these Groups are shown in the following figure. Seven Groups fall in the top two quadrants as more tangible variables (Fact) by nature and four in the Personality quadrants. One can surmise that a Brand such as Systemic AI Culture would require substantial “technical” support to be credible.
The intangible Groups can be considered the Brand emotional delivery mechanisms. Collectively, the Systemic AI Culture Brand can be considered a key aspect the industry Go-to-Market strategy—selling Systemic AI Culture.

Similar to the way an Affinity Diagram adds high value to the team doing the work, developing the Brand Wheel adds significant value to the process itself. Figures and charts are visual representations of concepts that are highly appealing. The Brand Wheel is one method supported by the Affinity Diagram to capture a large set and sometimes conflicting issues into a model individuals can grasp and internalize.
Finalizing the Brand
A brand Tag Line would be helpful to etch the construct into the minds of all stakeholders. For example, High Reliability Management used the concept of Mindfulness—the practice of maintaining a nonjudgmental state of heightened or complete awareness of one’s thoughts, emotions, or experiences on a moment-to-moment basis, also such a state of awareness (situational awareness).

Concluding Thoughts
To be clear, branding is not the end game in marketing but one of many prongs used to achieve strategic advantage and greater shareholder value. It is a convenient framework that captures the essence of who the organization is. This approach is immensely more successful than simply attaching .ai to the organization name, hoping for differentiation. Any competitor can do exactly the same thing.
Earn your value the old fashion way, with viable products that solve problems, customers, profits and return to shareholders. Forget about the hype!

Is your organization taking Rudyard Kipling’s advice to his son, “If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs and blaming it on you, if you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
but make allowance for their doubting too!”

Pre order our new book

Navigating the Data Minefields:

Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making

We are living in an era of data and software exponential growth. A substantive flood hitting us every day. Geek heaven!  But what if information technology is not your cup of tea and you may even have your kids help with your smart devices? This may not be a problem at home; however, what if your job depends on Big Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI)?

Available June 2025

Ordering Information

We are also pleased to advise our loyal readers that CRC Press has accepted our proposal for this forthcoming book, Nonlinear Big Data and AI-Enabled Problem-Solving: Transforming From A Spreadsheet Society.  Stay tuned for more details.

For More Information
Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein. They are provided for education and entertainment only.
See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.
The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page. Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is the coauthor of the 2023 book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.” His focus is on Operational Technologies.
We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be released by CRC Press in June 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).
“People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross-Cultural Serious Game. You can contact this author as well.
For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg and his book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.
Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.
For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts. If interested, check it out and give me a shout.
April 28, 2025
Can Machines Think?
In 1950, the mathematician Alan Turing put forth this question. Rather than attempt to answer it using conventional logic, he proposed a new disruptive model–the Imitation Game.
The Problem
One can look at Alan Turing (1912-1954) as the “father of theoretical computer science and artificial intelligence.” His contributions to modern computer science cannot be understated. He posited whether computers could one day have the cognitive capabilities of humans. Some argue that day has arrived. Yet, how do we know?
The Turing Game
The Imitation Game is played by three people (humans).
(A) a Man,
(B) a Woman, and
(C) an Interrogator (of either gender)
The Interrogator, segregated into a separate room, is to determine which of the two players is the man and which is the woman.
The interrogator askes the two players (known only as “X and Y” or “Y and X”) a series of questions, the answers to which are written or passed through an intermediary so as not to expose the player’s gender.
The role of Player (B) is to assist (C) determine the gender of (A), while (A) is to deceive (C).
However,
“What will happen when a machine takes the part of A in this game? Will the interrogator decide wrongly as often when the game is played like this as he does when the game is played between a man and a woman? These questions replace our original, Can Machines Think?“
In his paper, Turing goes to elaborate in detail but for our purposes, the bottom line.
Will the error rate from a human only decision process be the same as when a machine (digital decision maker) become one of the players?
Early AI and the Turing Test
In 1955, McCarthy and Shannon, along with Marvin Minsky and Nathaniel Rochester, defined the AI problem as, “that of making a machine behave in ways that would be called intelligent if a human were so behaving. In 2013, when asked about Turing’s test in a taped interview, Minsky said, ‘The Turing test is a joke, sort of, about saying a machine would be intelligent if it does things that an observer would say must be being done by a human.’” This materially connects the early definition of the AI problem to Turing’s test.
Our intent here is not to split academic hairs but to put forth this concept that predates most readers and is typically not a subject of serious discussion. The point being that the problem was documented 75 years ago or earlier and this pioneering thinking is the basis of our contemporary definition and implementation of Artificial Intelligence.
Before Turing
In one sense, we all stand on the shoulders of giants who preceded us. “When you think about the origins of computer science, the name Ada Lovelace might not come to mind immediately—but it should. Born in 1815, Ada Lovelace was an English mathematician and writer whose visionary work laid the foundation for modern computing. Collaborating with Charles Babbage (considered to be the father of computing), the inventor of the Analytical Engine, Lovelace wrote what is widely recognized as the first algorithm designed for a machine.”
“Ada was the first to explicitly articulate this notion and in this she appears to have seen further than Babbage. She has been referred to as ‘prophet of the computer age‘. Certainly, she was the first to express the potential for computers outside mathematics.” In the computer Familia, we might also want to think of her as the grandmother of computing.
Other women who played a major role in the evolution of Artificial Intelligence (after Turing) include Navy Rear Admiral Grace Hopper, the inventor of the first compiler for a programming language as well as other innovations. Many others made significant contributions. No doubt women will continue to play a vital role with this game changing technology.

The Solution(s)
Twelve years have passed since Minsky’s statement that the Turing test is a joke. Today’s artificial intelligence capability has changed that landscape.
The argument becomes, not can ‘we’ meet the Turing test, but how far and fast will it be eclipsed. This suggests exciting times with associated challenges and risks.
Contemporary Thinking about the Test

“As AI systems are increasingly deployed in high-stakes scenarios, we may need to move beyond aggregate metrics and static benchmarks of input–output pairs, such as the Beyond the Imitation Game Benchmark (BIG-bench). We should be prepared to evaluate an AI’s cognitive abilities in a way that resembles the realistic settings in which it will be used. This can be done with modern Turing-Like Tests.” As shown in the following figure.

“Looking ahead, Turing-like AI testing that would introduce machine adversaries and statistical protocols to address emerging challenges such as data contamination and poisoning. These more rigorous evaluation methods will ensure AI systems are tested in ways that reflect real-world complexities, aligning with Turing’s vision of sustainable and ethically guided machine intelligence.”

Computer Game Bot Turing Test
“The computer game bot Turing test is a variant of the Turing test, where a human judge viewing and interacting with a virtual world must distinguish between other humans and video game bots, both interacting with the same virtual world. This variant was first proposed in 2008 by Associate Professor Philip Hingston of Edith Cowan University, and implemented through a tournament called the 2K BotPrize.”
This pundit believes that the Turning test dam has been broken, and greater things lie ahead.

Today’s Father of AI – Geoffrey Hinton, The Nobel Prize in Physics 2024
“When we talk about artificial intelligence, we often mean machine learning using artificial neural networks. This technology was originally inspired by the structure of the brain. In an artificial neural network, the brain’s neurons are represented by nodes that have different values. In 1983–1985, Geoffrey Hinton used tools from statistical physics to create the Boltzmann machine, which can learn to recognize characteristic elements in a set of data. The invention became significant, for example, for classifying and creating images.”
Together with John J. Hopfield, they used physics to find patterns in information. Dr. Hinton has expressed some concerns regarding his (AI) child as he states in the following interview from October 9, 2023.

Theoretical Basis of Tests
In this pundit’s opinion, the Turing test used Game Theory as a fundamental underpinning. A later theory, Relationships, Behaviors and Conditions enables newer derivatives of the original Turing Test as well as supports different approaches to the problem. These theories are briefly described.
Finally, it is not necessary to read this section, as these details are provided for completeness and to support the position taken. We understand that this level of detail is not for every reader.
Over the past few years, there has been an impassioned argument regarding ‘The Science.” We addressed this issue in 2020, and the following paragraph is taken from that Blog, They Blinded Me with Science.
“According to Scientific American, Scientific claims are falsifiable—that is, they are claims where you could set out what observable outcomes would be impossible if the claim were true—while pseudo-scientific claims fit with any imaginable set of observable outcomes. What this means is that you could do a test that shows a scientific claim to be false, but no conceivable test could show a pseudo-scientific claim to be false.
Sciences are testable, pseudo-sciences are not.”
There is academic peer reviewed agreement that both Game Theory and RBC hypotheses are testable.
Game Theory
Concurrent with Turing’s Imitation Game development, game theory was being formalized as an approach towards economic behavior modeling among economic ‘rational’ actors.
“Game theory emerged as a distinct subdiscipline of applied mathematics, economics, and social science with the publication in 1944 of Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, a work of more than six hundred pages written in Princeton by two Continental European emigrés, John von Neumann, a Hungarian mathematician and physicist who was a pioneer in fields from quantum mechanics to computers, and Oskar Morgenstern, a former director of the Austrian Institute for Economic Research. They built upon analyses of two-person, zero-sum games published in the 1920s.” This treatise was developed from the works of other pioneers of the 1920s and 1930s.
An interesting side note, “The software industry is a little over half a century old (in 2005), but its roots date back to the textile loom programming of the seventeenth century that powered the Charles Babbage Difference Engine. In 1946, ENIAC (Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer), the first large-scale general-purpose electronic computer built at the University of Pennsylvania, ushered in the modern computing era.
That same year (1946), John von Neumann coauthored a paper, Preliminary Discussion of the Logical Design of an Electronic Computing Instrument. The von Neumann general purpose architecture defines the process of executing a continuous cycle of extracting an instruction from memory, processing it, and storing the results has been used by programmers ever since.“(1)
Perhaps, this is part of the collision of the two major breakthroughs: Game Theory and the modern Computer Architecture.
In 1996, this author’s doctoral dissertation, Cross Cultural Negotiations between Japanese and American Businessmen: A Systems Analysis, (Exploratory Study) was “An exploratory test of this framework in the context of two-person zero-sum simulated negotiation between Japanese businessmen and American salesmen, both living and working in the United States. The integration of structural (game theory) and process theories (RBC) into a dynamic systems model seeks to better understand the nature of complex international negotiations. Advanced statistical techniques, such as structural equation modeling are useful tools providing insight into these negotiation dynamics.”
This work is the basis for the Cloud based Serious Games used to train Cross Cultural Teams.

Relationships, Behaviors and Conditions (RBC) Framework
This model has been part of numerous this pundit’s writings since 1996. A brief overview from a 2011 article follows.
“The Relationships, Behaviors, and Conditions (RBC) model was originally developed to address issues around cross cultural (international) negotiation processes. Relationships are the focal point of this perspective, reflecting commonality of interest, balance of power and trust as well as intensity of expressed conflict.
Behavior in this model is defined as a broad term including multidimensions – intentional as well as unintentional. Finally, Conditions are defined as active and including circumstances, capabilities and skills of the parties, culture, and the environment. Of course, time is a variable in this model as well.
One key feature of the R B C Framework is its emphasis on interactive relationships while providing an environment for multiple levels of behavioral analysis. This makes it a useful tool to better understand the new regulatory processes currently unfolding. As we will see later, the number of constituents now engaged belays the use of simplistic linear decision models.”(2)
Operational Excellence
The following excerpt from our 2017 Blog, Excellent Behaviors: Assessing Relationships in the Operational Excellence Ecosystem addresses the role of the RBC Framework in organizational excellence.
“One of the hot business buzzwords of 2017 is “Operational Excellence.” It has been the subject for many pundits, including this one.
In October and November we published a two-part series, Assuring Operational Excellence from Contractors and Their Subcontractors through BTOES Insights. Each part included a link to additional information.
The October edition featured an excerpt of our Implementing a Culture of Safety book. In the November edition we released our new Best Practice solution, Attaining & Sustaining Operational Excellence: A Best Practice Implementation Model. We are proud to make it available herein and in general.
One of the basic tenets of the RBC Framework is the general construct that Relationships cannot be determined a priori. The well-used example is a man and a woman sitting on a bench at a bus stop. Are they married, siblings, coworkers, friends or simply two people waiting to catch the same/different bus?
Their relationship cannot be known directly. However, their Behaviors will provide insight into how they relate to each other. Romantic behavior may indicate marriage, dating, an affair etc. They may still be coworkers but most likely are not strangers.
The third dimension, Conditions (environment) can be considered the stage upon which behaviors play. So, what does this have to do with Operational Excellence?
Another component of our digital environment is Human Systems Integration (HSI). In our forthcoming book, we have defined HSI as, “Human Systems Integration (HSI) considers the following seven domains: Manpower, Personnel, Training, Human Factors Engineering, Personnel Survivability, Habitability, and Environment, Safety and Occupational Health (ESOH). In simple terms, HSI focuses on human beings and their interaction with hardware, software, and the environment.”

We have crossed the Turing Rubicon. How will your organization capitalize on these Opportunities?
Hardcopy References
Shemwell, Scott M. (2005). Disruptive Technologies—Out of the Box. Essays on Business and Information Technology Alignment Issues of the Early 21st Century. New York: Xlibris. p. 127.
_______ (2011, January). The Blast Heard Around the World. Petroleum Africa Magazine. pp. 32-35.
Pre order our new book
Navigating the Data Minefields:
Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making
We are living in an era of data and software exponential growth. A substantive flood hitting us every day. Geek heaven!  But what if information technology is not your cup of tea and you may even have your kids help with your smart devices? This may not be a problem at home; however, what if you job depends on Big Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI)?
Available April 2025

Ordering Information

For More Information
Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein. They are provided for education and entertainment only.
See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.
The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page. Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is the coauthor of the 2023 book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.” His focus is on Operational Technologies.
We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be released by CRC Press in April 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).
“People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross-Cultural Serious Game. You can contact this author as well.
For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg and his book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.
Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.
For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts. If interested, check it out and give me a shout.
January 19, 2025
The Crisis/Challenge of AI in 2025

“Many processes are repeatable and only data inputs change.”
— Scott Shemwell, 2023.

Technology disruption has been with humankind since the first invention. We get used to one model and suddenly, a new way supplants the old. Much has been written about the innovation process, and it is not the focus of this Blog to regurgitate the obvious.

However, Wikipedia states, “Beyond business and economics disruptive innovations can also be considered to disrupt complex systems, including economic and business-related aspects. Through identifying and analyzing systems for possible points of intervention, one can then design changes focused on disruptive interventions.” This is the broader focus of this piece.

Human Redundancy?

One if the ongoing concerns, “will AI replace humans?” As of this writing, many do not believe it will, at least anytime soon. Interestingly, according to Harvard professor Karim Lakhani, “Just as the internet has drastically lowered the cost of information transmission, AI will lower the cost of cognition.” This is consistent with the traditional path of Information Technology innovation.

Moreover, this concern is not new. In her 1983 paper, Ironies of Automation, Lisanne Bainbridge posited that there are inherent problems with automating workflow, humans are still required for tasks that are not easily (if at all) automated. Oversight of automation requires more training in new job skills, not less. More recently, the former Chief Scientist of the US Air Force points out the “Original Ironies of Automation is highly relevant with regards to today’s new wave of AI-enhanced automation. Near misses and incidents involving human automation operations often arise from a mismatch between the properties of the system as a whole and the characteristics of human information processing.”

In our forthcoming book we address the need for Strong Oversight coupled with Standardization and Risk Tolerance to address the broader need for upskilling today. According to McKinsey, “Any engineering talent rethink needs to begin with an understanding of how gen AI will affect the product development life cycle.”

Paraphrasing Mark Twain, “The rumors of Human demise are greatly exaggerated.” AI is here to stay and should be embraced with cautionary guardrails as it is still immature and subject to error.

Human Factors

One pundit refers to the ‘Human Edge‘ as the competitive Advantage we have over machines. This pundit has long been an advocate for Human Factors when it comes to managing technology, especially emerging technology used for process or production management. The risk profile otherwise is just to0 steep and high. One only has to look at the recent travails of the once venerable firm, Boeing.

2025 and Beyond

Artificial Technology, its future derivative products and solutions not yet envisioned will continue. Most likely at the breakneck speed or faster of today. Remember when we used to think of the Internet growth in terms of Dog Years? Insect Years may be the new metric.

Many, including this writer as documented in our book, believe AI et al is just entering the explosive growth on the maturation curve. We must live with it and the most successful will get ‘on board’ when the timing is right for them.

Exciting times lie before us all and it is a great time to be alive, at least from a technology perspective.

How are you, your family and work colleagues prepared for the future?

Pre order our new book
Navigating the Data Minefields:
Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making
We are living in an era of data and software exponential growth. A substantive flood hitting us every day. Geek heaven!  But what if information technology is not your cup of tea and you may even have your kids help with your smart devices? This may not be a problem at home; however, what if you job depends on Big Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI)?
Available April 2025

Ordering Information

For More Information
Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein. They are provided for education and entertainment only.
See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.
The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page. Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the recently published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.” His focus is on Operational Technologies.
We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be published by CRC Press in 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).
“People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross-Cultural Serious Game. You can contact this author as well.
For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg and his book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.
Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.
For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts. If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

January 1, 2025
DOGE’d

The Day the Congress Stood Still

On December 18, 2024, Elon Musk delivered on the social media site, 𝕏 the death knell of a 1500+ page so called Continuing Resolution that was to stave off a Federal Government shutdown. Later it was replaced with a much shorter (100+ page) bill that passed largely intact.

This Out-of-the-Gate action by the Non-Government Organization (NGO), DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) may foretell the next 18+ months of DOGE’s self-imposed life ending July 4, 2026. This first Musk assessment revealed extensive and massive political pork earmarked spending.
The Congress and all manner of hired bureaucrats may face increased public scrutiny, posted for all to see. Who knows, the idea may expand to all levels of government and their hired hands.
Creative Destruction
Previously, we discussed this economic substitution model. “The economist Joseph Schumpeter was the first to coin the term creative destruction–the destruction of old markets and those active in them through innovation, & inventing of new markets, this can be new technologies, methods, business models, services, or products.” One can argue that the creative destruction cycle time is very short today.
And perhaps getting even shorter!
Gort or Grok?
In the original (1951) movie, The Day the Earth Stood Still, the robot Gort has the ability to destroy the world. It is prevented from doing so by the utterance (by a human) of the key words, “Klaatu barada nikto.”
According to 𝕏, the Artificial Intelligence (AI) robot of today, Grok (formally defined as “to understand something”) “leverages the 𝕏 platform to understand what’s happening in the world in real time. We recently launched two additional features to enhance this experience even further: web search and citations. Now Grok draws upon posts from 𝕏 and webpages from the broader internet to provide timely and accurate answers to your queries. We also added citations, so you can easily dive deeper into a source to learn more or verify the information provided by Grok.”
Fortunately, three simple words neutralized Gort, and the earth was saved. Grok will not so easily be rendered impotent, unless the First Amendment is repealed.
The government world has been (figurately) creatively destroyed and changed forever. Moreover, in their world of consistent suboptimal performance, most have no idea what has already happened to their cherished long-standing bureaucratic processes.
The Regulatory Public Comment period will never be the same.
After DOGE
It appears that Musk has put in place an AI solution that will live on after the formal closure of DOGE in 2026. Grok and other emerging AI tools can continue to review and assess each and every piece of proposed legislation and other government edicts regardless of length and/or complexity.
Like Hacking, those opposed to honesty will seek ways to thwart AI. Those providing transparency solutions will need to stay one step ahead, just like law enforcement agencies that are required to enforce and uphold the law. If accepted social behaviors norms are to prevail, transparency is demanded.
Finally, we can “read the bill to find out what is in it.” Prior to voting!
This Accountability Sucks!
Well, get over it! One suspects entrenched vested interests will try to find ways around this revolution, but likely to no avail. There is not only a new sheriff in town, even after he leaves, the new accountability will remain.
And so much for the current media business model whereby either a single individual or small group amalgamates society’s daily activities and present the proletariat with their (often agenda driven/opinionated/biased) version of THE NEWS.
How will you take advantage of the AI delivery of information?

Pre order our new book
Navigating the Data Minefields:
Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making
We are living in an era of data and software exponential growth. A substantive flood hitting us every day. Geek heaven!  But what if information technology is not your cup of tea and you may even have your kids help with your smart devices? This may not be a problem at home; however, what if you job depends on Big Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI)?
Available April 2025

Ordering Information

For More Information
Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein. They are provided for education and entertainment only.
See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.
The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page. Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the recently published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.” His focus is on Operational Technologies.
We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be published by CRC Press in 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).
“People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross-Cultural Serious Game. You can contact this author as well.
For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg and his book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.
Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.
For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts. If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

December 23, 2024
Birds of a Feather . . .

Eagles Soar, others flock.

Post the US election, it seems that many on the losing side are circling the wagons and pointing to the ‘other guy’ to blame for a series of political sins. Like fish in a school, the belief seems to be that the crowd provides an element of protection.  But is this belief borne out by observation?
Experience suggests that the masses can be figuratively slaughtered while the lone leader prevails.
Keep Doing What You’re Doing
Paraphrasing the Brown/Einstein quote about insanity, ‘many are doubling down on past behaviors that have already cost success.’ Yet we humans keeping going back to the old playbook. Partially, because we do not know any other options. Shame on those without a well thought out strategy (with options) because as we know, ‘No plan survives initial contact.” If your political party just lost a major nationwide election, why would the first post-election reaction be to do more of the same? Not all are taking this path, but based on the public media it seems many are.
We often refer to the concept of Groupthink, “A process through which the desire for consensus in groups can lead to poor decisions. Rather than object to them and risk losing a sense of group solidarity, members may remain silent and lend their support,” when speaking about group dynamics. Let me posit that this sociological model does not address the dynamics of the losing side in the recent Presidental election.
The Abilene Paradox
The “Abilene paradox refers to a situation wherein no member of a group decides to contest a decision taken by the group, believing it to be the consensus of everyone, when in reality, none of the group members agree with the decision. However, none of them speak up for the fear of going against the wishes of others and end up regretting not speaking up in time.”
To this pundit, the Abilene paradox more closely mirrors what may have been happening to the losing presidential candidate team than many other social and behavioral models.
The following short video provides a good and concise presentation of this methodology and its origin. Suggest readers take a few minutes to watch it.

Early Signals from the Markets
Note: This paragraph is the opinion of this writer and not the result of a formal data analysis or use of any methodology. Also, it does make one wonder if the results of the US Presidental election were borne out exclusively for the reasons many pundits are putting currently putting forward.
Thanksgiving is the informal kick off for the holidays or Christmas. It seems that the atmosphere this year is more upbeat, even joyous than in the recent past. For example, starting with the so-called Black Friday (the day after Thanksgiving), “E-commerce was the biggest winner over the weekend, showing the strongest growth year over year. U.S. online sales for the weekend were $41.1 billion, and online spending set new records on each of the five days, according to data from Adobe Analytics.” Despite persistent inflation, these sales figures are extraordinarily strong.
Moreover, advertisers seem more willing to use the phase, “Merry Christmas” more than in the recent past.
Perhaps, the outcome of the election excited the population, but maybe there is an additional factor to be considered.
Retail marketers must develop champaigns well in advance of the purchasing season. Decisions regarding inventory volume and key ‘in’ styles and toys etc. must be made. Moreover, festivities, parades and other market Pull Drivers as well Push (when appropriate) must be developed, funded and implemented.
Bottom Line–these efforts should be seen as a major Leading Indicator. This suggests that retailers and other consumer/hospitality sectors had supporting data many months ago, i.e., Big Data Analytics.
Hypothesis, while very important, the personalities in the election may have played a lesser role than many believe. The rising tide lifted the boat of the candidate(s) that could sense this underlying movement higher better than those that did not pick up on these vibrations. This is an important leadership trait.
This does not diminish the role of candidates and positions taken. We simply make the case that there is a broader social and economic movement afoot.

This writer only has access to public information and the opinions of others on this subject. There may be other processes and behaviors taken by the presidential parties (not publicized) that can either add or detract from the arguments herein. Additionally, some public behaviors such as campaign budgets and spending habits are known and likely contributed to the wining process as well as the losing operation.

Final Thoughts
In the coming years many books, research papers and other documents will be written about the 2024 US Presidental election. Some will add real value to the discussion, yet sadly many will seek to justify positions taken. Others will label scapegoats.
Likely, history will show that this election is but a single yet major impact event of a very large social transformation whose final impact we cannot yet surmise.
To be successful in this new environment, individuals and the groups they represent only gain actionable and factual knowledge when strict and structured methodologies are use based on strong data foundations. In this piece, the November 15, 2024, edition The Transformation of Our Spreadsheet Society and others (previously published and future editions), we attempt to participate in these early discussions.
What have you learned from the outcomes of November 5, 2024?

For More Information
Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein. They are provided for education and entertainment only.
See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.
The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page. Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the recently published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.” His focus is on Operational Technologies.
We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be published by CRC Press in 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).
“People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game. You can contact this author as well.
For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg and his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.
Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.
For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts. If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

December 9, 2024
Cultural Cognitive Dissonance
“Cognitive dissonance is the mental discomfort that results from holding two conflicting beliefs, values, or attitudes.” — Verywellmind
Typically, we associate this behavioral issue with individual humans. Yet, aren’t organization comprised of human beings? Well at least until the AI robots take over.
There can be many issues causing individual and collective angst and some are described below. However, it is not daily decisions management makes that we do not agree with that are the most destructive. The real challenges groups face are the ones that challenge organizational culture–such as major change or organizational transformation efforts.
Yet, what if cultural cognitive dissonance is not caused by major one time events? What if it is the result of the systemic nature of the organization. For example, employees are routinely treated poorly and not valued.
From a personal perspective, twice in my career I blow the sales quota away by multi-millions. My reward; thanks and we can’t pay that much in commission. And the final coup de grâce, “we want more of this type business so we are going to hire someone to do it.” Guess, what! Both companies did and these huge deals were never sold again. Oh and BTW, both went out of business not long after.
There are consequences when organizations exhibit cultural cognitive dissonance. Not just to the individual, but that message was clearly sent and no one ever again stepped out of their boxes. Game, Set, Match!
Moreover, for large global firms, there may be cultural clashes among the different global divisions/companies. This can be managed but may often be at odds with each other.
From Verywellmind, the following three major causes of cognitive dissonance apply to organizations as well as individuals.
Causes of Cognitive Dissonance
Forced Compliance–Required to behave in a certain way that may be contrary to beliefs or desired behavior
New Information–Obtaining new information or data that calls into question previous positions
Decisions–The quandary of needing to select one of two or more similar alternatives
According to the well regarded Cleveland Clinic, “Cognitive dissonance can feel a lot like anxiety and stress — and they often come paired together. When you’re stressed or anxious, you could affect your overall mental, emotional and physical health.”
This observer suggests that these symptoms will apply to organizations as well. This could contribute or lower performance and even the demise of a once viable organization. This condition is something to be taken seriously.
Does your organization realize there may some internal cognitive dissonances in your culture?
For More Information
Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein. They are provided for education and entertainment only.
See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.
The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page. Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the just published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.” His focus is on Operational Technologies.
“People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962). For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game. You can contact this author as well.
For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.
Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.
For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts. If interested, check it out and give me a shout.
June 13, 2024
Fake Science

“I would rather have questions that can’t be answered than answers that can’t be questioned.” – Richard Feynman

“I am the science.” You have got to be kidding me Mr. Fauci. Clearly, you have no training in the Scientific Method or maybe your just plan arrogant. Home many lives have you and you colleagues destroyed, you fake scientist?
As an actual degreed physicist, I have published here and other media on the process ‘real’ scientists take to address new phenomena. Yet a singular medical doctor, not a degreed scientist claims the godlike mantel of ‘I am science?’
Welcome to 21st Century quackery. In his testimony before Congress, “Dr. Fauci reaffirmed shocking testimony that the ‘six feet apart’ social distancing recommendation that he promoted was arbitrary, not based on science, and ‘sort of just appeared.’” Science? NOT!! Do I hear leaches and blood letting are next?
Trillions and Trillions and Trillions
Untold lives and treasure has been destroyed by the Covid-19 quacks. Not just MD types but a complacent media and hapless governments (politicians as well as regulators) at all levels.
I am not a Covid denier. Yes, many got sick and too many died, but we are now learning is that a so call ‘medical’ approach to this problem was based on NOTHING real! Moreover, it appears that senior officials at the National Health Institute knowingly lied to us repeatedly.
Let me see if I understand this, a US funded research institute focused on ‘gain of function‘ released the Covid or it came from a bat? Readers can make their own decision.
Pockets were padded and many had their (more) than fifteen minutes of fame. What did the rest of us get? Lost jobs, closed (forever) small businesses, and now ‘oh joy’ inflation due to government largess.

The National Institute of Health appears to have put in place a systematic procedure to foil Freedom of Information Act requests. Our right to know and have oversight that limits the ability of dictatorships to emerge was compromised.
The arrogance and disgust which these so called public service hold us, the public is beyond the pail. But not to worry they are all multimillionaires working on GS 15 (~ $180,000) salaries. They must get great investment advice.
The old saying about reality is applicable, “If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it just may be a duck.” Or it may be a MD policy wonk from the government that is ‘here to help or destroy your life.’ Remember how those who questioned the conventional wisdom were treated/abused?
Bring in the mandatory masks. No less than the conservative (lol) AL JAZEERA reports that key Covid players now question the value of masks we were all forced to wear. Fascism!

What the world was put through for years by dictatorial medical types and the fake media that took down other opinions and approaches is appalling. Jail time is too good for these liars as they got rich. Next time they come up with the crap they should be run out of town as they have not earned any respect.
Have you put your liar detector in place when the fake government arrives and says ‘we are here to help/mandate?’

For More Information
Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein. They are provided for education and entertainment only.
See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.
The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page. Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the just published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.” His focus is on Operational Technologies.
“People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962). For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game. You can contact this author as well.
For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.
Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.
For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts. If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

June 5, 2024
AI or AU?

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is all the rage but are these laudables premature? Is it in really Artificial Unintelligence (AU) or just latest manifestation of the 30+ year old Expert System and a passing fad?

Recently, none the less than Google (parent Alphabet) suffered a $100 billion market setback when their AI strategy suffered a lack luster performance. This pundit has believed for a while that AI is ‘not ready for prime time,’ despite the continual harping about this world changing too.
IT hype is not new. The modern era for Information Technology most likely started with Alan Turing’s ‘Machine,’ circa 1936. Ever since, society has endowed these inanimate objects with special ‘human like’ powers. In our 2023 book, Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability, we asked the question regarding Machine Learning. “What do you do if your machine is learning the wrong things?”
In our forthcoming (2025) book, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making, we address this issue and its management in great detail. In the meantime, management is well advised to treat all new technologies with a skeptical mind regards of what internal and external proponents with their agendas argue.
We have known for decades that IT projects need to undergo the same scrutiny as any capital expense. So why do these projects still get a pass?
Over the years, we have chronicled major corporate failure such as Bud Light. A nine (9) percent equity hit on one day because of AI hype puts that organization in that league. Use common sense in technology assessments!
What guardrails does your organization have in place to prevent major technology faux pas?

For More Information
Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein. They are provided for education and entertainment only.
See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.
The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page. Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the just published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.” His focus is on Operational Technologies.
“People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962). For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game. You can contact this author as well.
For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.
Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.
For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts. If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

February 20, 2024
When Does It End?

Once Again Organizational Safety Cultures Have Failed. Why Does This Keep Happening?

The controversial Normal Accident Theory suggests that in complex systems accidents are enviable. So it would seem with continued major disruptions in Critical Infrastructure Sectors. We have argued that this is not necessarily correct.
Systemic Safety Culture
Following the Deepwater Horizon incident in 2010 and building off our 2014 book, IMPLEMENTING A CULTURE of SAFETY A ROADMAP FOR PERFORMANCE BASED COMPLIANCE, we continue to address the issues associated with safety failures and developed a Roadmap towards the High Reliability Organization (HRO). An HRO faces the same challenges are its industry peers; however, it has robust processes in place to quickly mitigate safety and critical operational exposures.
As part of our practice, we have developed a robust toolkit to facilitate the rapid transformation to an organizational Safety Culture without business disruption. Many of the tools are provided at no cost and are easy to use–their details are available.
Culture Eats Strategy
The aircraft manufacture Boeing and its supply chain are undergoing increased scrutiny as result of the Alaskan Airline Max 9 inflight door failure. This is entirely appropriate.
As part of this process, the aircraft producer’s culture has come into question. Some argue the firm moved away from an engineering culture to a safety culture. This pundit believes that they are one in the same for this sector.
A more appropriate argument is that the firm has recently exercised other values at the expensive of aircraft manufacturing technology. Is this a loss of focus and a deviation from core values and capabilities? Always a danger, i.e., New Coke and Bud Light.
Get Smart
In our recent book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability, ” we make the case that the smart extended factory floor (including supply chain partners) adds significant value to organizations in that sector. This approach supports engineering/safety cultures while enabling certain social behaviors.
We believe that a simple Safety Culture is insufficient in complex environments. It must be coupled with High Reliable Management. Only then can organizations capitalize on ‘Smart’ coupled with new solutions such as Artificial Intelligence.
Is your Safety Culture Adequate? If not, what are you doing about it?

For More Information
Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein. They are provided for education and entertainment only.
See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.
The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page. Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the just published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.” His focus is on Operational Technologies.
“People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962). For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game. You can contact this author as well.
For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.
Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our recent blog, Crippling Green.
For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts. If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

January 19, 2024
Bogus

According to Cambridge Dictionary the title term is defined as, Not real, or existing only in order to deceive people.”

We live in a world when lies are tossed around with impunity. Politician lie, school boards withhold from parents and the news is decried as fake by both sides of the political isle. How does one sort fact from fiction and knowledgeable option from uninformed or deliberately disinformed BS?
Passing The Smell Test
This is the ‘Gut Check’ feeling–does it make sense? Usually, our instincts or first impressions will have some credence. Not that further investigation is not required but humans and other animals such as dogs can tell the ‘lay of the land,’ almost without thinking.
Doubting these feelings can often lead to a less than optimum result. So, Trust Your Gut is not a bad thing.
At one point in the Covid-19 saga, one government employee suggested that if one mask made sense, multiple masks would make better sense. Widely ridiculed, this nonsense faded quickly. This followed after the celebrity photographed wearing a knitted mask.
Lies, Damn Lies & Statistics
We have been told all manner of things regarding Covid-19. First, many would get it with few if and symptoms. Later, it was defined as the modern day scourge–another plague. We were told the Science was changing. Really?
Massive daily numbers of ill and dead statistics flooded our media. Armageddon was here. Then a funny thing happened on the way to destruction. We took off our masks and most of us did not die.
Let us not forget the Scientific consensus regarding Climate Change. NO dissenting views are tolerated.
The Scientific Method, long heralded as the gold standard in research and interpreting data is often completely blown off when it gets in the way of an agenda or the often stated ‘narrative.’
What’s A Person To Do?
Social media and the 24/7 news cycle can be overwhelming. Yet that need not be the case.
We have always had to hold competing and conflicting views in our head. Nothing has changed. We just have a plethora of so called facts to assess.
We do not need fancy computers or AI to determine what makes sense and what is just idiotic. Right or Left, we must make good life decisions and walk away from the Scams and Lies perpetrated on us every day.
This pundit is rich beyond his wildest dreams. The recipient of millions for dead relatives I did not know I had, brought to my attention by African Princes. More recently, contacted by young women who offer me a massive business line of credit. Lets not forget the business opportunities that require not investments of money or time but will handsomely reward me. If only I would provide them my banking information so they know where to send the funds.
I especially like the one where if I click on a link, a so-called vendor I have never heard authorizes Accounts Payable, or the Voice Mail posted to my Outlook. Give me a break!
Yea, right! All of this does not pass my Smell Test. In fact, it all stinks, so trust your (smart) Gut. If it is too good to be true, it probably isn’t!!
How are you protecting yourself and your business from online thieves?

For More Information
Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein. They are provided for education and entertainment only.
The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page. Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor for an in press book (to be released in Spring 2023) titled, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.” His focus is on Operational Technologies.
“People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962). For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game. You can contact this author as well.
For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts. If interested, check it out and give us a shout.

January 30, 2023
Whoa Nellie–Delays in the Smart Horseless Carriage

In the just released NCHRP Research Report 1001/BTSCRP Research Report 2, a new framework provides government and non government parties and other stakeholders a tool for the assessment and risk management for emerging automated driving system (ADS) technologies.

This Framework for Assessing Potential Safety Impacts of Automated Driving Systems reminds this reader with a sense that the challenge here is similar to other complex critical systems such as health care and energy. This should not be surprising given the huge global ground transportation sector.
ADS Maturity
Maturity Models are useful tools helping management and others assess organizational processes and the value standardization can provide all stakeholders. Likewise, the ADS Maturity Model follows a similar path of the established ones such as Capability Maturity Model Integration (CMMI).
According to the automotive authority, J.D. Power Driving Automation Maturity Model contains these six steps (in reverse order):
5 – Full Driving–Vehicle is self contained as an autonomous operation.
4 – High Driving–Requires no human driver and most likely be used within geofence boundaries.
3 – Conditional Driving–Significant step up this level incorporates various systems including Artificial Intelligence (AI). As of 2021, these level of automation was not approved in the United States.
2 – Partial Driving–Vehicles with Advanced Driving Assistance Systems (ADAS) but still requires the driver to remain engaged.
1 – Driver Assistance–Vehicle contains one or more systems designed to help steerage and/or braking etc.
0 – No Driving Automation–No automation, driver entirely operates the vehicle.
While there are some test exceptions, if as noted, Level 2 is the highest approved to date and the step to Level 3 is a big one, it appears we have a ways to go before any of us see an autonomous vehicle. Not sure were we are on the Gartner Hype Cycle but likely there is some distance to go.
SEMS
Safety and Environmental Management Systems (SEMS) have been around for years. Typically, SEMS requirements are usually integrated into Operations Management Systems.
In this pundit’s opinion, similar integration will incorporate ADS into policies, processes and procedures for each organization. As with other sectors, a number of Safety Cultures will emerge. These will need to collaborate with other like minded but somewhat different business and technology models.
The Hype
We are often told that autonomous vehicles will be with us soon. However, the evidence suggests otherwise. According to the IT research firm, Gartner ““More than half of the technologies on this Hype Cycle are in the trough [of Disillusionment], which means that the hard work of commercializing many significant technologies is underway.” Moreover, many advanced technologies necessary for Level 6 are even less developed. Many may recall the autonomous breaking problems one manufacturer dealt with just three years ago. Caveat Emptor in this field, at least for a while.
How willing are you to trust your life to a Smart Vehicle?

For More Information
Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein. They are provided for education and entertainment only.
The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page. Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor for an in press book (to be released in Spring 2023) titled, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.” His focus is on Operational Technologies.
“People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962). For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game. You can contact this author as well.
For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts. If interested, check it out and give us a shout.

November 20, 2022
Hierarchy of Team Needs in Challenging Times
First it was Covid-19 and now a Recession? Is a Global Military Conflict on the Horizon as well?

Social, economic and personal pressures continue to mount. There is already evidence of Reductions in Force, (RIF) aka layoffs are underway or planned. With consumers stretched to the max, higher interest rates, equity markets in retreat and a struggling real estate environment, one wonders what the holiday season will bring.
Cross Cultural (Diverse) Teams
Ronald Reagan is credited with saying, “Recession is when your neighbor loses his job. Depression is when you lose yours.” Would that it would be that simple.
As we have addressed in the series on several occasions organizational teams consists of different types of people with diverse background and perspectives on life. More importantly team members can be at different levels of maturity (both personally and organizationally). We will address this in more detail.
Maslow’s Hierarchy
Many are familiar with Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs. While a simple physiological (group level) safety model and as my colleague Rob Jones discusses in his new book, A Hole In Science–Grammar of The Sociological Problem. He takes a very sophisticated and well thought out approach to addressing this group dynamic problem. For our purposes in the blog, his in-depth analysis is really for professionals and not the casual reader. However, for those interested, I highly recommend this newly released publication.
Released in the early 1940s, the hierarchy consists of these five levels of needs that humans progressively move through (these levels were take directly from the aforementioned linked article and should be treated as direct quotations):
Physiological–Air, water, food, sleep, health, clothes, and shelter, etc.
Safety–Include personal and emotional security (e.g., safety from abuse), financial security, and wellbeing.
Belongingness and Love–Family connections, friendship, and intimacy.
Esteem–According to Maslow, there are two subtypes of esteem. The first is esteem reflected in others’ perceptions of us. That is, esteem in the form of prestige, status, recognition, attention, appreciation, or admiration. The second form of esteem is rooted in a desire for confidence, strength, independence, and the ability to achieve.
Self-Actualization–Examples include the acquisition of a romantic partner, parenting, the utilization and development of one’s talents and abilities, and goal pursuit
Maslow and others continued to advance the model, but readers can get the gist of it from these definitions. Moreover, the following short (2.17 min) video covers this model very effectively.
We can look at Maslow through the lens of a Maturity Model. For example, certain Teams and/or Individuals might be higher up the hierarchy than others.
This may change team interactions. Usually, such models reflect the maturity of the lowest member.
With the stress of an economic setback, some members may move from of a position of feeling good to one of Safety if jobs or personal cash flow are threatened.
Guidelines for Going Forward
In one sense,, teams composed of individuals in different phases of the Hierarchy are no different than other diverse teams. Teambuilding techniques such as found in our Cross Cultural Serious Games are good tools to teach team member about the state of mind of their team members and/or competitors.
We have been through tough times before and we will all get through this one as well. Be sure to learn from history so as not to repeat it.
How are you helping your family and organization deal with challenging times?
Note: The definition of a recession is a political football and this is a blog about organizational excellence and not politics. Investopedia has a good and generally accepted definition of the term (recession) and it is provided herein for completeness. Readers can decide for themselves as to its relevance to their individual situation.
For More Information
Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein. They are provided for education and entertainment only.
The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.
“People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962). For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game. You can contact this author as well.
For more insight regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our recent blog, Crippling Green.
For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts. If interested, check it out and give us a shout.
October 21, 2022
At the Precipice?

On October 8, 2021, we posted the blog, Welcome to the 70s–Again! The point that the awful economy of that decade could return. It seems that one year later, those comments have come true. Many are now freely comparing out contemporary time to that period before most adults were born. This Baby Boomer graduated from college in 1970s and ‘enjoyed’ the full economic Stagflation experience and it was not pretty and definitely not fun.
However, increasing global events, especially from Europe and Asia beg the question, Are we entering the 1930s again? Seeming sinister forces both internal to the United States and global are conspiring to wreck havoc if we are not careful. Even the word, World War III is being ‘loosely’ tossed about by various journalists and pundits.
On top of all these daily headlines, we are told the planet is in peril. However, the trillions and trillions of dollars necessary do to seem to be available. “Damned if I do, damned if I don’t.”
What to Do?
Geopolitical Risk is not a new concept. Organizations have been dealing with it for many millenniums. As always, the race goes to the best economic players. Agile, Smart, and Decisive continue to play a big role in the success of organization live and even thrive in hard times.
R B C
We have long been advocates of the Relationship(s), Behavior(s), Condition(s) model first put forth to research International Negotiations by Stephen Weiss in 1993. It is a good construct to assess behavioral changes based on situational (conditions) changes, even transformation. Which results in changes in relationships including adding new and dropping existing.
Interested readers can search this website, there are 14 blogs on this subject in our Critical Mass series.
Pressure Cooker
No one can predict the future but it is abundantly clear there a lot of pressures on business and people in general. This writer is not as sure that new behavioral tools are as necessary as good old fashion Leadership! For executives, the adage, “Lead, Follow or Get Out of the Way” is applicable today as it ever was.
Finally, with so many mounting and rapidly changing Conditions, a constant review and assessment is in order. For example, in the last period of great inflation, successful companies conducted ongoing review of their pricing and cost structures.
How are You Leading Your Team/Organization/Family in these Trying Times?

For More Information
Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein. They are provided for education and entertainment only.
The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.
“People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962). For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game. You can contact this author as well.
For more insight regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our recent blog, Crippling Green.
For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts. If interested, check it out and give us a shout.

September 26, 2022
Crippling Green
“Yes, hope is a strange thing. Peace at last. But at what price?”

— Khaled Hosseini

Great Societies have been lost in the past–a number of times. There is no reason to believe our current crop is immune!

Ariel Durant, the co-author of the 11 volume tome, The Story of Civilization is credited with, “A great civilization is not conquered from without until it has destroyed itself from within.”

The United States is currently engaged in a great climate civil war. One one side there are those who advocate for expensive and expansive economic and social investment in so-called Climate Change. Climate Change Skeptics, often derided by the aforementioned group as Climate Deniers are those who question the Scientific Consensus and the cost and return on the investment to become Net Carbon Zero. By the way, science is never settled.

From the observer’s perspective, there is a long term effort to shut down debate, as is typical in today’s society largely by name calling, shaming and even threats. Dissenters seemingly risked their professional reputation, loss of grants, even safety, and more.

And Now Questions

Funny thing happened on the road to Net Zero. Questions began to be raised about the efficacy of renewables, and their Total Lifecycle Cost. Moreover, the heavy metal cost of ecological damages of mining were raised and are now under scrutiny.

The Let Them Eat Cake Strategy

Transitions, especially Transformations are painful. Based on Joseph Schumpeter’s Creative Destruction, “The incessant product and process innovation mechanism by which new production units replace outdated ones,” transformation is a linchpin of Capitalism. Now, some believe socialism is the future, history does not prove their point. Are any to turn in the Smart Phones for the old black dial model tethered to a wall?

However, when this natural process is driven by the ‘heavy hand’ of non-economic actors, perturbations in the process can cause warps in the economic space time continuum. Some examples of overreach include:

Agriculture

Some argue that, “Agriculture accounts for 16 to 27% of human-caused climate-warming emissions.” Nitrous oxide (N2O) is the named culprit (according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change this chemical accounts for 6% of greenhouse emissions).

It is reported that in the Netherlands agricultural sector system manure is high in nitrous oxide. Emotions are apparently running high between Dutch farmers who see a targeted 30% reduction in livestock heads and the government whose position seems to be this is an “unavoidable transition.” Jobs are at risk!

Gasoline

It seems the President of the United States is celebrating high gasoline prices as part of “an incredible transition” to move away from fossil fuels. As with the Dutch case, this seems to place the biggest burden on the so-called ‘little guy.”

Truckers

We all remember the trucker protests in Canada and the United States in early 2022, mostly regarding Covid-19 restrictions. Around the world there was a strong level of solidarity.

This sector is also not immune to Climate Change driven initiatives. From one source there are two key considerations:
- - The proposed 2027 new emissions regulations for diesel-powered trucks, and
  - The 2030 goals from some states and their aggressive objectives for zero-emissions vehicle sales.
One might project similar (Covid-19 driven) responses to these new mandates. This might be another major negative impact to supply chains for all sectors.

Electric Vehicles

The US Secretary of Transportation has suggested that everyone would benefit from an EV. At the time of his statement (October 2021), the average cost of an EV was $55,676 while a compact car was $25,240 and and SUV was $34,122.

By this pundits calculation (at $4 a gallon), break even for the SUV is 5,389 gallons of gasoline at 20 miles per gallon. As mathematicians will say, it follows that break even is almost 108,000 miles of driving. Years of driving for most of us and what shape will the battery be in at that point. While some argue the maintenance costs are less for EV, most consumers are driven by out-of-pocket buying decisions. Then there the disposal costs of EVs at end of life (see Other Blogs below for details).

Fracing

Perhaps one of the more emotional fossil fuel development process is Fracing (not Fracking by the way). Some believe the damage to the environment from fracing is the greatest of any human endeavors.

On the other hand, the value from fracing includes:
- - The shale revolution mad the United States self-sufficient in oil and gas for the first time since 1947
  - In 2022, the US is the largest exporter of LNG (liquified natural gas)
Given the current geopolitical situation, easy access to low-cost traditional energy sources is at least near time high value.

There are many other areas of controversy regarding this issue. More than likely both sides will continue to make their points and emotions will continue to play a major role. There will be Winners and Losers over the next few years as this debate plays out. Honest scientific debate can mitigate the emotional and political agenda at play.

Are Green Initiatives Making the Problem Worse?

Per the NBC piece aired on September 20, 2022, illegal gold mining in Peru not only releases mercury into the ecosystem but adds to environmental carbon when the soil is disturbed. This makes this pundit wonder if all the heavy metal strip mining to fuel EVs will do the same in addition to its other environmental problems (see Heavy Metal Rocks below)?

Moreover, this issue about strip mining and carbon release has been known for a long time. In 1977 the peer reviewed scholarly article, Soil fungal populations and soil respiration in habitats variously influenced by coal strip-mining addressed this issue.

Likewise, NBC reported on illegal gold mining in Peru in 2019. Point being, this information is not new nor is The Science newly discovered.

Unintended Consequences run amok? Are lithium batteries destroying the planet?

And the Winner Is?

No one! If we do nothing, we are told the oceans will rise and temperatures will become unbearable causing all manner of weather driven catastrophes as well as increased intensity and frequency of forest fires. On the other hand, spending the multiple trillions of dollar will enrich the (very) few at the cost of economic collapse for the many.

Lose–Lose Deal. Either way our world ends or our economies end. Is there a difference?

According to Merriam-Webster, “A pyrrhic victory is a victory that comes at a great cost, perhaps making the ordeal to win not worth it. It relates to Pyrrhus, a king of Epirus who defeated the Romans in 279 BCE but lost many of his troops.”

Decisions–Decisions

So Global Society is faced with two choices. The earth is in physical peril unless we spend malevolent amounts of money as fast as possible. Or, as a result of economic destruction on a global scale if this level of spending adds little if any value. Then we will all live in poverty or worse. Either way, Human Extinction is one end game proclaimed by many. The very definition of a Dilemma.

According to Merriam Webster, one definition of Hobson’s Choice is, “The necessity of accepting one of two or more equally objectionable alternatives.” Not a great place to find oneself.

The ancient Romans apparently made poor decisions as a mature and wealthy society. It cost them dearly. Are we now?

How are You and Your Organization Assessing the Risk of Investing in Climate Change (Conventional Wisdom) Scenarios or Alternative Approaches?

Other Recent Relevant Blogs

These blogs in this series address this particular issue in greater detailed. Together, they form a more complete picture of the author’s position on relevant components discussed here as well aligned subjects. In reverse chronological order:
- Sun Sets in the West: Science or Commentary? (August 1, 2022)–The difference between seemingly authoritative ‘opinion’ vs. real documented data and information.
- Reports of Fossil Fuels Demise Premature?– Renewables Remain Marginalized? (July 15, 2022)–The role of fossil fuels remain vital to society. The European winter of 202-23 may be a test case.
- Why Corporate Initiatives Fail (June 21,2022)–Most Change/Transformation projects are viewed as organizational initiatives. As such like most Climate based transition initiatives they are set up to fail.
- Innovation: The Key to the Global Future (June 13, 2022)–Realistic and timely Energy Transition can only be attained at a realist cost and time line by non-linear thinks. This curve is similar to other transformations since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.
- A Windy Position (May 2, 2022)–A discussion on Lifecyle and Total Cost of Ownership for wind driven energy sources.
- Going Green? Or NOT! (February 7, 2022)–The downside of renewables and their End-of-Life decommissioning process/costs.
- Heavy Metal Rocks (November 18, 2021)–What it takes to make an EV battery.
- They Blinded Me with Science (October 2, 2020)–Discussion regarding actual Science and Pseudo-Science.
For More Information

Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein. They are provided for education and entertainment only.

The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.

Disclaimer, the author has no personal or business relationship with Bjorn Lomborg or his publications other than reading and commenting on his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

Second Disclaimer, Ali Daneshy was interviewed for the referenced Forbes article on Fracing. This author knows Mr. Daneshy and worked with him for many years at Halliburton.

For those start-up firms addressing energy challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts. If interested, check it out and give us a shout.

For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game. You can contact this author as well.
September 26, 2022
ESG Explained
According to Investopedia, “Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria are a set of standards for a company’s operations that socially conscious investors use to screen potential investments.” Definitions of the three components are pretty straightforward:
- Environmental–Generally refers to the stewardship of the planet and how organizations facilitate that responsibility.
- Social–Facilitating organizational responsibility to the global society, at all levels from the globe to the local communities firms operate in.
- (Corporate) Governance–Typically, the umbrella organizations put in place to assure issues such as transparency, fraud, safety culture and ethics are in compliance with social norms and local regulations.
Since the Deepwater Horizon incident of April 2020, operators (oil and gas companies) have extended and enhanced the above criteria to their supply chain ecosystem and in some cases even customers with a Safety and Environmental Management System (SEMS). This is true of most other Critical Infrastructure sectors as well.

Likewise, the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 enhanced transparency and increased fraud protection after the Enron (and other) scandals. Other incidents have triggered governance changes as well and some are referred to in linked materials.

Why Is ESG Important?

By one account, approximately $12 trillion in investments made in 2018 were driven by those who consider themselves socially responsible. According to Forbes, in 2019 this accounted for almost 25% of total investments and are seen through the lens of sustainability. Moreover, between 2016 to 2018, the growth rate in such firms grew at 38 percent.

These numbers confirm our research going back to the turn of the century and perhaps earlier. In 1993 we controversially posited that the Principles of Scientific Management were applicable to software development by Knowledge Workers. Developed by Frederick Taylor, his monograph was published circa 1911.

In other words, owners (investors) have always demanded top notch, legal and ethical performance. Activist investors, i.e. Carl Icahn are not new. As always, they have a very important role to play in the current markets.

Asset/Equipment Integrity Governance

There is a buzz of newness to ESG; however, from a contrarian perspective, this is not necessarily the case. After the Deepwater Horizon failure with significant loss of live and many billions in economic losses to many parties including BP, it became clear that traditional Governance models did not have a focus on operations and the management of capital assets, i.e., manufacturing plants, marine vessels and other revenue producing sources.

In our book we addressed a New Risk Environment from large corporate operations in which ‘failure is really not an option.” We stated as a risk element, “Escalation of Consequences: The level of consequences of a disaster in the energy industry can now be larger than from the accidental release of a multi-megaton nuclear weapon.”

Still governance models continued to struggle. We believe that in the critical infrastructure sectors there is a lack of strong bonding, in other words top management is still hands off and operating from historical ‘control’ models that are no longer relevant or applicable.

We do not believe this will change until a Strong Bond (tightly coupled) model is adopted. We define the term as, “A strong model is used by High Reliability Organizations (HRO) and as part of that model, trained; knowledgeable personnel are empowered to make the right decisions in the field. The strong model provides an organization with the capability to become and remain and HRO.”

In 2011, we released our monograph, Asset/Equipment Integrity Governance: Operations–Enterprise Alignment; A Case for Board Oversight (AEIG). In addition to developing a financial model documenting the Return on Investment (ROI) from strong governance, a Compliance Model, as well as a robust AEIG Matrix which incorporates an Asset Maturity Model are part of the solution.

The AEIG extends the enterprise governance model to include the full ecosystem including subcontractors to its primary supply chain partners. While not directly addressed at the time, Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) is implicit in the model.

This roadmap is comprehensive and is a good starting point for developing and implementing a vigorous ESG initiative. Other monographs in our Changing the Dialogue series (exploring our New Business Dynamics) include Structural Dynamics and Rapid Response Management are available online.

Relationships, Behaviors, Conditions

Scroll down on The Rapid Response Institute, Operational Excellence Platform page and you will find our R B C Framework Cultural Transformation model. Shown below for ease of readership.

The R B C model was originally developed to research international (cross cultural) negotiations. We have extended it to support the transformation process to a robust and model organization culture such discussed herein. Readers should note that this model is focused on Operational Excellence and is comprised on Processes & Methods supported by Enabling Tools.

Built on Structural Dynamics which was developed as part of Dr. Shemwell’s doctoral dissertation in 1996. It is defined as, “The morphology or patterns of motion towards process equilibrium of interpersonal systems.”

This proven Framework is grounded in Management Science yet is a useful tool (Roadmap) that real originations can successfully and cost effectively implement. We believe it is the best approach for attaining ESG.

Summary

One can view the current ESG status as part of a continuum to hold organizations accountable as appropriate and frankly, increase their Operational Excellence. We have long known that firm’s that are well managed command superior stock market multiples and greater equity value.

Many ‘self-serving’ consultants and pundit would have us believe ESG is breakthrough Thought Leadership in need of their help. Nothing could be further from the truth.

In the early 1990s, we document the history and evolution of Management Science/Thinking. It is not written in stone, like most human endeavors it evolves and has for thousands of years. ESG is a step in this continuum.

How is Your Organization Addressing the Requirements of Active Investors?

For More Information

Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials. They are provided for education and entertainment only.

For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game. Two current online games; Safety Culture and Diverse Teams specifically address issues raised by ESG Criteria. If you have any questions, please contact this author as well.

Graphic Source: The Rapid Response Institute derived from a Storyblocks image under license.
April 25, 2022