The Rapid Response Institute

Tag: negotiation

  • Trading: The Art of the Bridge

    Trading: The Art of the Bridge

    “For the only way in which a durable peace can be created is by world-wide restoration of economic activity and international trade.”  – James Forrestal

    A recent article reviewed games that might be akin to the international trading process, chess, poker and bridge.  That author argues that so much of our rhetoric is militaristic.  We are going to “target” and, “fighting” for you, “outmaneuvering,” and so on sends the message that somehow, we are in a battle?

    If we are in a battle, who wins and what is the prize?  Typically, a military victory results in the destruction of the foe(s).  This pundit is not sure this is a good global model.  The approach has been tried many times in history, the Greek Alexander the Great, the Roman Empire, various European colonization, parties from Word War I and World War II, the Cold War, etc.  The result is always the same–a continuation of tensions leading to the next and more violent conflict.  If the goal is to limit the global population, we seem to be getting pretty good at it.

    All of these classic games have a winner or at least a stalemate.  So, in this context, how do we define Winner?

    Win-Win

    A more satisfactory global engagement can lead to the world that the first US Secretary of Defense sought.

    “Game theory is the study of mathematical models of strategic interactions.  It has applications in many fields of social science, and is used extensively in economics, logic, systems science and computer science.  Initially, game theory addressed two-person zero-sum games, in which a participant’s gains or losses are exactly balanced by the losses and gains of the other participant.  In the 1950s, it was extended to the study of non zero-sum games, and was eventually applied to a wide range of behavioral relations.  It is now an umbrella term for the science of rational  decision making in humans, animals, and computers.”

    In the 1990s, this author used game theory to assess international business negotiations, Cross-cultural negotiations between Japanese and American businessmen: A systems analysis (exploratory study).  One of the influences for that study was the early 1980s book, Getting to Yes – Negotiating Agreement Without Giving In.  In their book, Roger Fisher and William Ury set out Four Principles of Effective Negotiation, summarized as follows.

    • Separate the People from the Problem
    • Focus on Interests not Positions
    • Invent Options for Mutual Gain
    • Insist on Using Objective Criteria upon which to Base Agreement

    A common theme among these points it the de-escalation of personal animosity that might exist/develop.  By focusing on the common or mutual goal(s), the win-win outcome is possible.

    All Can Win

    Winning is ingrained in our human psychic. Survival of the fittest has served our evolutionary development process well.  However, collaboration is not mutually exclusive with winning.  Humans have banded together for the common good since the beginning.  It is possible for both or multiple parties to a ‘deal’ to feel that their best interests are served.  Isn’t this the basis of a successful marriage?

    The quote “Winning isn’t everything, it’s the only thing” by the legendary NFL coach, Vince Lombardi is not as singular as it first appears.  It has additional dimensions, “Resonates with a competitive spirit and the desire to be the best, it is crucial to recognize that life is not solely about winning.  This interpretation aligns with a broader perspective on success, one that focuses on personal growth, resilience, and the lessons gained along the way.”

    Classic games and military jargon are useful tools for today’ so-called business road warriors.  They stand the test of time because we all can relate to conflict.  Even after hostilities cease, countries and societies must be rebuilt in a useful way.  After World War II, both Germany and Japan were rebuilt and became the positive global influences they are today.

    We addressed this recovery process in a LinkedIn post, Trump’s Marshall Plan in February 2025.  Out of the depths of despair a new and better world emerged.  This writer believes we can still help the defeated and even crushed Bridge to a Long-Term Win in the Lombardi spirit.

    How are you helping assure your organization and its ecosystem participants are Winning?

    Pre order our new book, Now Available

    Navigating the Data Minefields:

    Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making

    We are living in an era of data and software exponential growth.  A substantive flood hitting us every day.  Geek heaven!  But what if information technology is not your cup of tea and you may even have your kids help with your smart devices?  This may not be a problem at home; however, what if your job depends on Big Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI)?

    Preorder May 23, 2025

    Ordering Information

    We are also pleased to advise our loyal readers that CRC Press has accepted our proposal for this forthcoming book, Nonlinear Big Data and AI-Enabled Problem-Solving: Transforming From A Spreadsheet Society.  Publication 2026.  Stay tuned for more details.

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is the coauthor of the 2023 book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be released by CRC Press in June 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross-Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg and his book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • Beware The Guns of March?

    Beware The Guns of March?

    Readers know that as of this writing there is geopolitical and military tension in eastern Europe.  Hopefully, the situation will resolve peacefully.

    This piece is not about those politics.  Rather it is about the potential for accidental engagement and how that risk can be mitigated.

    President Kennedy is famously cited for the comment that referred to the origin of the War to End All Wars, “Perhaps the greatest contribution historians have made to humanity, at least as historians sometimes tell it, came during the Cuban Missile Crisis when Barbara Tuchman’s book, The Guns of August, saved the world from nuclear war.  The book is Tuchman’s narrative of the origins of the First World War, an account that, in President John F. Kennedy’s reading, showed how miscalculation and inflexible military planning could force great powers into catastrophic conflicts against their leaders’ wishes.”  We might add, against the wishes of the populations that must endure the unbearable cost of stupid interventions.  As noted by Herbert Hoover.

    “Older men declare war. But it is the youth that must fight and die.”

    While the Cuban Missile Crisis worked out well for both parties, including the world in general, it was not necessarily a given.  Miscalculations such as the US lack of knowledge regarding nuclear weapons onboard Soviet submarines or the ‘launch’ upon the invasion of the island of Cuba order could have been disastrous.

    Misunderstanding during the 1983 military exercise Able Archer is another example of a near nuclear catastrophe.  And then there all the Broken Arrows,  nuclear weapon incidents (that we know of).

    Complex Systems’ Behaviors

    This blog series has commented on complex interconnected systems a number of times.  The  Risk Profile is dramatically increased in such systems.  Geopolitical and military systems must be viewed through this lens as well.  However, we know complex systems can be properly managed and thus reduce the likelihood of major global impact events.

    This process is grounded in High Reliability Management (HRM).  Wikipedia defines, “A high reliability organization (HRO) is an organization that has succeeded in avoiding catastrophes in an environment where normal accidents can be expected due to risk factors and complexity.

    This author believes that geopolitical and military complex systems can benefit from this model.  Given that the cost of these type failures is incalculable they certainty fits HRM profile.

    Folly Revisited

    In the 1930s Brinksmanship did not end well.  Following historical patterns, especially from World War I, Europe plunged into the abyss for the second time in two decades.  Miscalculations on the side of multiple parties in both conflicts let to unthinkable destruction and loss of life.

    Today’s militaries are much more powerful than ever.  Hopefully, from Shakespeare, “Beware the ides of March” does not portend this year.

    Geopolitical miscalculations, brinksmanship and other aggressive negotiations can go badly.  This is especially the case when adversaries are not in direct and frequent communication with all parties.

    Even then cultural differences put discussions at risk.  Temperance, communication and though is what saves the world from the unthinkable.  Hopefully, cooler heads will continue to prevail during the current crisis.

    Cross Cultural Negotiation

    The importance of cross cultural understanding cannot be overstated as geopolitics and businesses deal with complex, multi-faceted issues across many nations, ethnicities and cultures.  Old international negotiation models are no longer relevant.

    Behavioral Economics is foremost today.  All parties dealt with are by definition diverse.  They are composed of different genders, ethnicities and ages etc.  This is a more accurate model that reflects the reality of organizations today.

    Also, keep in mind that no nation is homogeneous.  Each is composed of separate regions, cities, with local backgrounds, cultures and more.  So when one talks about two or more geopolitical entities to be at odds over an issue(s), that model is too simplistic and can lead to greater risks as described earlier.

    These are more contributing factors for misunderstanding and miscalculation.  Most of us never ‘step in the other’s shoes.’  However, we can recognize the differences in perspectives, behavior and cultures.

    Changing the Playing Field

    We have often discussed the Relationships, Behaviors and Conditions (RBC) construct among economic actors.  The model argues that new Conditions or Situations and Behaviors change the Relationship among parties.  This applies at all levels of human interactions from two individuals to many nations.  It is applicable here as knowledge to help diffuse difficult situations.  For an in-depth review of the model, check the linked blog.

    No Guns this Time?

    The cascading events following the assassination of the Austrian, Archduke Franz Ferdinand by a small terrorist group is widely believed to have led to the beginning of World War I.  The sceptic must put forth, “you have got to be kidding me.”  Yet, it did happen.

    Our point here is that it does not take much to launch the horrible.  How many American doughboys died for that nonsense?  It can happen again and most likely will at some point given human nature.

    Business Contingency

    Geopolitical risk has always been one component of an organization’s risk profile.  What will be the impact on your business if the unthinkable happens in Europe again?  Other risk mitigation tools include social media.

    In 2013 we published ” Mitigating Operational Risk Using the Power of Social Media” that identified a methodology to better understand the beliefs and behaviors of local populations.  From the footnoted piece, “Large global enterprises can augment existing security and risk management with the same solutions used by the government entities in the defense sector at commercial price points.  The real question is not why, but why not?”

    Since that time, there have been significant advances in these capabilities.  Other readily available tools can assist as well.  Use inexpensive technology to protect global stakeholder interests.

    How Robust is Your Firm’s Contingency Plans for Geopolitical Uncertainties?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    Footnote

    Kuiper, Marcus A. and Shemwell, Scott M. (2013, February). Mitigating Operational Risk Using the Power of Social Media. Petroleum Africa Magazine. pp. 28-31.

  • Getting to Diverse and Inclusive Teams

    Getting to Diverse and Inclusive Teams

    Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) Team Models

    There is a tendency to see DEI through the lens of initiatives or often a process semi-outside the daily ‘organizational’ grind.  Does this represent reality?

    Organizations spend countless sums training employees and others they depend on for Operational Excellence performance.  They often trust global Teams to add stakeholder value.

    No less than Microsoft names a software product, Teams.  A tool designed to foster collaboration.

    The Way We Do Business

    Culture is often defined as ‘who we are.’  The approach an organization takes towards its ecosystem.  If this model is an accurate representation, it suggests that when organizations launch initiatives meant to address current social mores, they likely fail or at least do not live up to full potentials.

    Change management, often referred to as transformation often takes on the mantel of ‘you will be changed.’  Contemporarily, take the Covid-19 vaccine or you will be fired!  Not surprisingly, this mandate is resisted and seemingly increasingly with each new warning.

    As of this writing, the all out war (on decrees) has been declared by the likes of the Navy Seals, Health Care Workers, Law Enforcement and others with the demands from the Feds.  Likely, the result will be a draw at best, with the administration quietly acquiescing.  Too many critical, non-replaceable positions are at risk.  Not to mention votes.

    Governance

    In October 2011, we published our first draft of, Asset/Equipment Integrity Governance: Operations–Enterprise Alignment.  We recognized that traditional organizational Governance models were strictly focused on finance and maleficence therein.  The reality is that revenue is generate by operations and as such governance is critical as well.  Safety Culture, is intangible but now required by most organizations in Critical Infrastructure sectors.

    Flash forward to today and Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) is the model most organizations use.  Effectively, this expands governance to include a broad range of non-financial commitments.  From this blogger’s perspective, likely DEI will fall under this governance model.  Therefore, moving it from the ‘initiative status’ to the ‘way we do business.’

    Team Building

    This dynamic environment requires workforce upskilling.  The need to constantly assure that individuals have current Knowledge, Skills and Abilities (KSAs) necessary to meet current challenges.  KSAs now include the ability/necessity to work across cultural/diverse lines.

    When one thinks of a ‘team’ it is not a homogenous collection of like minded and ‘like’ individuals.  Teams are a collection of hopefully, ‘fit for purpose’ individuals who comprise the KSAs needs to accomplish the task(s) at hand.  Teams can mirror the discrete views of its members.

    For example, our early research on the subject assessed the different approaches Japanese nationals took when negotiating with white American males.  In each case, the individual players were deemed to be homogenous.

    Nothing could be further from the truth.  Each individual, in this case all males were of different ages, different education, from different regions of their respective countries, married or not and so forth and so on.

    The reality is that individuals do not negotiate deals.  Teams do.   Members of teams, like juries need to arrive at the same place prior to engaging with other collaborative counterparts.

    Juries need to be arrive at consensus.  Likewise, organizational team members must arrive at a similar place internally prior to going forward.  This not to say that individuals must cave to the will of the majority or the Tyranny of the Minority.  It is to say, a common position that all must accept as part of collaboration or consensus.

    Inclusive?

    There is no doubt that token individuals and in some case high profile figureheads have been put forth to ‘prove’ inclusivity.  Thankfully, those days are fading.

    Teams need to have the input of all members, even contrarians.  Often it is the outlier that has the most insight into a difficult problem.  Differences of opinion need to be resolved and a go forward plan agreed upon.

    Often, individuals do not speak up.  Perhaps they are new to the environment, shy or unsure of themselves.  Whatever the reason their input must be sought and at least given a fair hearing.

    Training can help elicit input from the reticent.  Moreover, they help dominate individuals acknowledge and accept said input.

    How Does Your Organization Assure Real Inclusion?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    For more on DEI Standards, see the newly released ISO-30415.

    You can contact this author as well.

  • Are Your DEI Wheels Spinning?

    Are Your DEI Wheels Spinning?

    Originally published as a LinkedIn article on July 6, 2021, this updated version is reprinted here with the permission of the author.  Links to relevant sources are added.

    Lately, many LinkedIn posts bemoan the state of Diversity, Equity, Inclusion (DEI) initiatives. The seeming slow take up of great ideas.

    Some argue that DEI initiatives are no more than window dressing or organizational efforts to stave-off litigation. To others, they have the appearance of one more management initiative that if waited out will simply go away like so many others before.

    Fundamentally, DEI initiatives require change. A change of (B)ehaviors in the face of seemingly new situations or influencing (C)onditions (Circumstances, Capabilities, Cultures, Environments). When these two variables evolve, so do exiting (R)elationships. The RBC model is well established in social science and was first used to model Cross-Cultural (international business) Negotiations.

    It is multi-dimensional including a temporal schema capable of addressing numerous aspects of human behavior. Furthermore, it encompasses cultural as well as other situational aspects such as individual backgrounds.

    We tested this model using Japanese and American executives. This culturally diverse group needed to develop a level of trust if negotiation outcomes were to be successful.

    Likewise, successful DEI initiatives require that culturally diverse groups develop a high level of trust among those working together and/or members of teams.

    “Tell Me and I Forget. Teach Me and I Remember. Involve Me and I Learn”

    Attributed to Benjamin Franklin, this quote tells us all we need to know. The so-called Death by PowerPoint lecture long in vogue are often forgettable. Instruction, along with the homework prerequisite and tests are traditional methods. Finally, engaging individuals, teams, departments and even entire organizations can create long standing sustainable knowledge that is the basis for behavioral transformation.

    Paper based serious games or “games whose purpose is other than entertainment” originated in the late 1960-70s. In a nutshell, this is an interactive training solution. Subsequently, online serious games can incorporate actual scenarios designed to immerse players solving real world challenges.

    Rather than a video game whereby players engage with electronic decision trees, human-to-human serious games train players/teams to deal with diverse yet real colleagues. Collaborative scenarios direct participants to collectively solve problems while learning how their culturally dissimilar counterparts address the same challenge.

    Scenarios can drive engagement by all players including those who may not be typically involved in decision making processes. This is also a safe, no-harm no-foul environment with little to no individual decision-making risk.

    Transformation

    Any successful ‘change’ initiative must answer the What’s in It for Me? question. Humans may resist change if they do not see personal value from such actions. Moreover, while senior executive leadership is required, heavy handed top down My Way or The Highway may result in direct resistance, and/or a more crowed freeway to the exit ramp.

    For example, the current version of the smart phone was first available circa 2007. According to Statista, approximately 1.38 billion smartphones were sold in 2020. Likewise, over 46 percent of the global population own these devices.

    What does this have to do with DEI? In 2006 cellphones were great and becoming ubiquitous. No one knew they needed a smartphone. Our collective Behavioral transformation was caused because the What’s in it for Me question was answered.

    One component of the Conditions criteria, Capability changed as this technology enabled individuals to drive new behaviors based on Apps that emerged. The resulting transformation in our Relationships is well documented, i.e., the use of text as opposed to voice.

    Sustained transformation requires continued energy. The term ‘initiative’ implies a short-term event and one that will pass.

    Trust must be established and maintained. Over time, sustained energy will result in critical mass, or the (statistically significant) number of individuals engaged and trusting each other. This self-sustaining energy is transformation.

    Reframing DEI Initiatives into the RBC Framework can enable dramatic and rapid transformation. Take advantage of these types of cross-cultural models.

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.