The Rapid Response Institute

Tag: GEM

The Transformation of Our Spreadsheet Society
“The only rules are the ones dictated by the laws of physics. Everything else is a recommendation.”  — Walter Isaacson/Elon Musk

We live in a spreadsheet society. Columns of Categories of People and Rows of Wants, Needs, and Desires. This model is too simplistic. What is needed, and Big Data can provide, is a more sophisticated approach.

This spreadsheet approach was shown in the recent US elections to be detrimental to the party mainly depending on this view of society. How many times did we hear pollsters opine that X percent of a certain population was voting for one candidate vs. the other? The categories of people were divided along traditional lines. This whole model was shattered on November 2, 2024, and likely some providers of data in this format may no longer be in business for the next cycle.
However, this belief system is not limited to the political class. We all can fall into this stereotype.
For decades we have been taught that data categories can be captured under a Normal Distribution (Bell) Curve of a category and row of interest, i.e., the distribution of the height of a class of male senior high school students or SAT scores. Another more relevant example, retailers’ pertinacious obsession with the 18–34-year-old group.
These are fairly simple models, and in this Blogger’s opinion, this representation rarely works anymore, if it ever did. For example, the resulting retail sector inventory overages as a result of dependencies on this gross data model are not an effective return on shareholder value. Other recent missteps based on faulty interpretation of the customer/prospect base include the Bud Lite advertising fiasco and the Target marketing failure.
It is ok to make marketing mistakes, that is going to happen. The problem with these two (and other) campaigns is the analysis of risk, return, etc. was likely shallow or mathematically primitive.
There are ways to appeal to new consumers without alienating a large existing base. It’s all in the big numbers.
There are several validated models of human behavior and we will discuss two of them herein, Maslow’s Hierarchy and the Relationships, Behaviors, Conditions model. Some readers may prefer others, and they will most likely work within this construct as well.

Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs
This perspective on human needs and subsequent behaviors dates back to the 1940s. As shown, it consists of five steps from survival to the ultimate Self Actualization. Note that we adapt this model in two ways. First, we view this as a growth process as opposed to five discrete steps. Additionally, the bottom two lower ranges focus mostly on the physical issues we all face. Fundamental survival and security both physically, mentally, emotionally and spiritually. Once we have attained, sustained, and believe, we are ready to transition towards an end game, “the realization or fulfillment of one’s talents and potentialities, especially considered as a drive or need present in everyone.”
Next, we will discuss how we can use this and the RBC solutions to realize specific and measurable value that changes this dynamic.

The color gradient is meant to reflect that this journey is a process and often each field begins slowly before accelerating into the next range.
Another perspective of each the Five Platforms consists of a number of smaller steps, which when assessed using Integral Calculus, generates a continuum.

Relationships, Behaviors, and Conditions (RBC)

The following is taken from our Cross-Cultural Online Game site:

The RELATIONSHIPS, BEHAVIORS, and CONDITIONS (RBC) model was originally developed to address issues around cross cultural (international) negotiation processes.   As shown in the figure, Relationships are the focal point of this perspective, reflecting commonality of interest, balance of power and trust as well as intensity of expressed conflict.  Behaviors in this model is defined as a broad term including multi-dimensions and intentional as well as unintentional. Finally, Conditions are defined as active and including circumstances, capabilities and skills of the parties, culture, and the environment. Of course, Time is a variable in this model as well.
Moreover, we have defined Behavioral Economics as “the decision-making model that incorporates societal, cultural, emotions and other human biases into the process as opposed to the classic rational economic actor.
One key feature of the R B C Framework is its emphasis on interactive relationships while providing an environment for multiple levels of behavioral analysis.   This makes it a useful tool to better understand the new Big Data/AI processes currently unfolding.
The following graphic is a derivative of our Cross-Cultural Interactions model. It is a peer reviewed model and is a very good way to calibrate interactions. Additional information is available on the above link.

This author has long believed that we do not live in a linear or mathematically deterministic world. A strong belief in stochastic, matrices drive much of my thinking. This is reflected in the figure on the left. The RBC model is the foundation for the five parties and their collective Behaviors. The resulting Relationships range from one-on-one to small groups or in some cases a wide and varied constituency.
Note that there is an Ecosystem, (something, such as a network of businesses, considered to resemble an ecological ecosystem especially because of its complex interdependent parts) associated with each entity other that the individuals’ who are the other four.
This is a wide array of influences on any given individual. Not easily measured, linearly!

Scientific Method
Most readers are familiar with how science has been brought into bolster the position of pundits/advocates of policy, especially related to Covid-19. The word is tossed around casually, as if most who use it know what they are talking about. Spoiler Alert–Most Do Not! This includes some with advanced technical or medical bona fides.
Most think that by using the word ‘science’ this assessment process is out of their wheelhouse. Previously, we argued that there is a layperson’s approach that works fine for most of our daily needs. Details can be found on our Blog, They Blinded Me with Science.
For space reasons, this (guidelines) model will not be repeated here but check it out, it is a short read.

The late Nobel Laureate, Richard Feynman has a brief and layperson-oriented presentation on the Scientific Method. He is an excellent teacher, and this clip is informative as well as entertaining.

“If it disagrees with experiment, its wrong”—Richard Feynman

Human Input Still Needed
To be clear, pollsters and marketers will still need to ask questions that will also help structure the model, but the processes posited herein can change the weighting processes driving toward equilibrium and Pareto Optimality (Pareto efficiency implies that resources are allocated in the most economically efficient manner but does not imply equality or fairness) in the final analysis. In other words, higher quality results.
These numbers can also be seen as ‘first value’ in a simulation. Another way to look at this is to the logic the Turing (Bombe) Machine of World War II. Not setting a number as itself.
Then AI can take the model to the next level and provide pollsters/marketers with real, modern solutions.  Finally, other uses will most likely be derivatives of this solution.
The Data Management Problem
We have identified a general problem as well as three valid and reliable theories. This is only a nice discussion without relevance with Valid, Reliable, and Timely (VRT) data. Data Management has been a problem as long as there has been data, stone, paper or electronic. It has always been an issue. “Herman Hollerith is given credit for adapting the punch cards used for weaving looms to act as the memory for a mechanical tabulating machine, in 1890.” Much later (circa 1950s) digital database management schemas emerged. Today, we are flooded by data of all types including telemetry and deliberately false data/information.
How can this be effectively managed and how can an executive without a technology background survive much less thrive in such an environment?
For decades, this author has been involved in almost all computer system development from the yellow punch tape of the 1960s until today. There have been several constants over that period.
One of the biggest chronic challenges has been database management; from the acquisition of data through its life cycle until achieve. An outcome of poor data management has been decisions that have even led to the demise of firms, along with tens of thousands (if not more) of suboptimal decisions at the expense of shareholder value (bottom line/stock price). What makes the current crop of Big Data/Artificial Intelligence advocates any smarter than those who came before? Nothing! Unless some things are changed.
Our forthcoming book to be published by CRC Press in 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI). The following and other managerial action items are developed in detail.
How to determine the quality of the data and its relevance to the decision-making processes.
Current Challenges and Trends in Big Data and associated applications.
Proposed organization structure such as High Reliability Organization and an understanding of Human Factors to fully realize the full and measurable economic value from these technologies.
A full set of Risk Mitigation and a Governance model including Disaster Recovery and Cyber Security.
How these technologies are used in Operations, a proposed Management System as well as numerous Case Studies across a number of industries and types of problems.
The challenge of managing this suite of emerging AI/Big Data is daunting and one that cannot be dodged or delegated. How organizations respond can be the difference between success or the destruction of shareholder value.
It’s The Data Stupid
Our pollsters are collecting and analyzing data that are self-reported.
A questionnaire is developed which may or may not reflect bias.
These questions are posed to potential respondents (phone and otherwise) who may detect a voice tone, and/or the subject may intentionally lie or mislead.
Finally, who answers the phone these days? This skews the data sample and perhaps badly.
Data collected in this manner is not subject to rigor and most likely wrong or skewed. Finally, data collected in this manner is not suitable for the new Big Data Analytic models.
One Proposed Better Way
There are probably several much better ways to address political and marketing problems. While no data source is perfect, we posit the following way to use the US Census data. We can treat it as a function of columns and rows yet apply sophistical data analysis algorithms.
Categories
As mentioned, we tend to clump or stereotype individuals into preconceived ‘buckets.’ Over time, these buckets have taken on an aura of, it’s the only way. Basically, the construct that ‘we have always done it this way.’

This is no longer a viable business or social model. Our world is much too dynamic for the older static approach to targeting the likelihood of a specific demographic to perform in a preconceived prescriptive manner.

One place to start looking is at the United States Census data. This data set consists of 57 profiles, The United States and each State and Territory. Each Profile is divided into several Sub-Categories, Populations and People, Income and Poverty, Education, Employment, Housing, Health, Business and Economy, Race and Ethnicity, and Nearby States. Each Sub-Category is further detailed.

We might even call the data in these Categories/Sub-Categories, Conditions from the RBC model. Each Platform in Maslow’s Hierarchy can be considered a Category with infinite Sub-Categories. Likewise, Conditions.

Rows
We have identified the following three variable model as representative of human Behaviors–Wants, Needs, and Desires. We have previously reviewed some of this in our Blog, Want – Like – Need in 2019. These can also be mapped to Behaviors in both the RBC and Maslow models.

Details and a short list of some variables follow. These definitions can overlap, and readers will note that there is some duplication across all three classes below. Researchers use different definitions for each class. This does not detract from the fundamentals of Rows selected for analysis.
The point is to develop a list of behaviors that is indicative of the problem to be solved.

Wants
For purposes of this model, we define Want as something that an individual might seek as part of normal life, i.e., and ice cream cone.

Needs
Those fundamentals of life, especially as defined in Maslow’s Hierarchy, platforms one and two.

Desires
Different from Wants, Desires are perhaps beyond his/her reach. Coveting a promotion and willing to back stab co-workers to get it rather than compete on merit.
Sources of Wants, Needs, and Desires
We have suggested that a starting point for Categories is the very large US Census database. No such singular source exists for these behaviors and there is an overlap in definitions. This list gives readers a starting point. In no particular order, this non-comprehensive includes:
A Theory of Motivation proposed by (the late) Steven Reiss, Psychology and Psychiatry professor emeritus at Ohio State University in Ohio, USA.
Human Wants: Meaning, Classification and Characteristics: A listing of economic and non-economic wants.
The Four Stages of Desire: From Everything to One Thing
30+ Human Needs: A Comprehensive List — maps to Maslow’s Hierarchy
The Ultimate List of 100 Life Goals To Achieve Before You Die
The list goes on, but readers get the point. A large row of behaviors will help develop a robust model.
And The Answer Is
While we know that the solution to the political pollster and/or marketing manager is not a definitive answer, we can do better than we are. We know how to management data in this environment and we have models for assessing and making decisions based on results. As we move from simple, small data set, linear models to robust Big Data Analysis, we need to consider a few additional action items.
Scientific Method
Do not forget to use this methodology to define and refine your problem statement.
Model Limits
While we are using a significant number of independent and dependent variables, we are not trying to solve world hunger. Therefore, we need to put limits on (Bound) the model. This is an age-old problem we first addressed in 2015, Bounding the Boundless.
From a scientific perspective, “Across all science, modelling is our most powerful tool, as models let us focus on the few details that matter most, leaving many others aside. Models also help reveal the typically far-from-intuitive consequences when multiple causal factors act in combination.”
Additionally, “Getting AI/ML/DL systems to work has been one of the biggest leaps in technology in recent years, but understanding how to control and optimize them as they adapt isn’t nearly as far along. These systems are generally opaque if a problem develops in the field. There is little or no visibility into how algorithms are utilized, or how weights that determine their behavior will change with a particular use case or interactions with other technology.”
Moreover, “the European Union this week (2021) issued guidelines for AI — specifically including ML and automated decision-making systems — limiting the ability of these systems to act autonomously, requiring ‘secure and reliable systems software,’ and requiring mechanisms for ensuring responsibility and accountability for AI systems and their outcomes.”
Diminishing Returns
Since we are not boiling the ocean, at some point continuing with the model will result reduced performance. According to Economists, “The law of diminishing returns says that, if you keep increasing one factor in the production of goods (such as your workforce) while keeping all other factors the same, you’ll reach a point beyond which additional increases will result in a progressive decline in output. In other words, there’s a point when adding more inputs will begin to hamper the production process.”
“Data is just a way of codifying information. Any data gathered should be relevant to a problem, otherwise useless data clouds the results of a query. If there are too many degrees of freedom, you are begging for a spurious correlation.”
Readers may be familiar with, “The Pareto Principle, also known as the 80-20 rule, is a concept that many have adopted for their life and time management. It is the idea that 20% of the effort, or input, leads to 80% of the results or output. The point of this principle is to recognize that most things in life are not distributed evenly.” This may be a satisfactory approach to this application.

Need for a Data Scientist
This approach may require the use of a professional data scientist to realize a valid and reliable outcome. “A data scientist is an analytics professional who is responsible for collecting, analyzing and interpreting data to help drive decision-making in an organization. The data scientist role combines elements of several traditional and technical jobs, including mathematician, scientist, statistician and computer programmer. It involves the use of advanced analytics techniques, such as machine learning and predictive modeling, along with the application of scientific principles. As part of data science initiatives, data scientists often must work with large amounts of data to develop and test hypotheses, make inferences and analyze things such as customer and market trends, financial risks, cybersecurity threats, stock trades, equipment maintenance needs and medical conditions.”
More
This is not a definitive list and is provided to give readers an understanding of what it will take to move forward with the Big Data Analysis model. Appropriate research and problem definition may reveal additional or fewer requirements.
Demise of Linear
The Linear broadcast approach to selling or changing minds is not the relevant delivery vehicle for new micro-data analysis. Directed notifications is better although practice this with care. This last election cycle, I received a text, words to the effect, “can we count of your vote for X?” I was very much against X and no reason was offered to help me change my mind. Get with the program and don’t be so lazy developing your spiel or message.
Elon Musk’s ‘Algorithm’
This is an interesting approach to problem solving that can have relevance to the issue discussed herein. Can we reduce complexity without losing data fidelity, “The accuracy, completeness, consistency, and timeliness of data. In other words, it’s the degree to which data can be trusted to be accurate and reliable.”
His Five Step Process:
Question Every Requirement
Delete Any Part or Process You Can
Simplify and Optimize
Accelerate Cycle Time
Automate
Readers may ask, how does this fit in this discussion? We bring this to your attention because it may help identify and bound the problem to be solved.
Also, perhaps of some value is his, “idiot index, which calculated how much more costly a finished product was than the cost of its basic materials. If a product had a high idiot index, its cost could be reduced significantly by devising more efficient manufacturing techniques.” A survey, analysis, etc. are all products and may benefit from this index model.
Final Thoughts
Most financial professionals will tell you that spreadsheets must foot (the sum of all rows must equal the sum of all columns). Can societies or multiple societies foot their columns and rows? Most likely not and if that is the case, data from this model is not valid or reliable.
Most likely, this type of data will take the form of a Scatter Diagram (without correlation?) with some clumps or areas of intensity of a specific category or group of categories.
This may not be an approach that many will take; however, it is clear that the original premise of this piece, that we live in a spreadsheet society is no longer appropriate. “If you always do what you always did, you will always get what you always got.” ― Albert Einstein. It will be interesting to see how future polling is conducted.
Non-Linear Speed Ahead
Sometimes pieces like this summarize a conclusion. In the high-pressure environment, we are not concluding anything. We are carving a way forward–A Growth Model of the Data Economy.
As of this writing the incoming US administration appears to be moving at hyper speed across a broad front. Moreover, AI in particular exploding. Those interested in keeping up may want to to Subscribe | Generative’s AI Newsletter (not an endorsement but seems be a good daily source of information). Mostly, just keeping up will not be enough, if top quartile success is the goal.
It will be interesting to see the role the family of Artificial Intelligence (AI) software solutions play in this field going forward.
Micro-targeting is certainly a place for Big Data to shine. That said the problem to be solved and the confidence in the validity and reliability of the data must ascertained.

Society faces some real challenges with how we manage, analyze and decide using data. This is but one example where old methods no longer produce valid and reliable results. How will you and your organization go forward?

For More Information
Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein. They are provided for education and entertainment only.
See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.
The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page. Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the recently published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.” His focus is on Operational Technologies.
We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be published by CRC Press in 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making. This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).
“People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962). For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game. You can contact this author as well.
For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.
Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.
For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts. If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

Copyright © 2024 The Rapid Response Institute LLC. All rights reserved.
November 15, 2024
Fake Science

“I would rather have questions that can’t be answered than answers that can’t be questioned.” – Richard Feynman

“I am the science.” You have got to be kidding me Mr. Fauci. Clearly, you have no training in the Scientific Method or maybe your just plan arrogant. Home many lives have you and you colleagues destroyed, you fake scientist?
As an actual degreed physicist, I have published here and other media on the process ‘real’ scientists take to address new phenomena. Yet a singular medical doctor, not a degreed scientist claims the godlike mantel of ‘I am science?’
Welcome to 21st Century quackery. In his testimony before Congress, “Dr. Fauci reaffirmed shocking testimony that the ‘six feet apart’ social distancing recommendation that he promoted was arbitrary, not based on science, and ‘sort of just appeared.’” Science? NOT!! Do I hear leaches and blood letting are next?
Trillions and Trillions and Trillions
Untold lives and treasure has been destroyed by the Covid-19 quacks. Not just MD types but a complacent media and hapless governments (politicians as well as regulators) at all levels.
I am not a Covid denier. Yes, many got sick and too many died, but we are now learning is that a so call ‘medical’ approach to this problem was based on NOTHING real! Moreover, it appears that senior officials at the National Health Institute knowingly lied to us repeatedly.
Let me see if I understand this, a US funded research institute focused on ‘gain of function‘ released the Covid or it came from a bat? Readers can make their own decision.
Pockets were padded and many had their (more) than fifteen minutes of fame. What did the rest of us get? Lost jobs, closed (forever) small businesses, and now ‘oh joy’ inflation due to government largess.

The National Institute of Health appears to have put in place a systematic procedure to foil Freedom of Information Act requests. Our right to know and have oversight that limits the ability of dictatorships to emerge was compromised.
The arrogance and disgust which these so called public service hold us, the public is beyond the pail. But not to worry they are all multimillionaires working on GS 15 (~ $180,000) salaries. They must get great investment advice.
The old saying about reality is applicable, “If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it just may be a duck.” Or it may be a MD policy wonk from the government that is ‘here to help or destroy your life.’ Remember how those who questioned the conventional wisdom were treated/abused?
Bring in the mandatory masks. No less than the conservative (lol) AL JAZEERA reports that key Covid players now question the value of masks we were all forced to wear. Fascism!

What the world was put through for years by dictatorial medical types and the fake media that took down other opinions and approaches is appalling. Jail time is too good for these liars as they got rich. Next time they come up with the crap they should be run out of town as they have not earned any respect.
Have you put your liar detector in place when the fake government arrives and says ‘we are here to help/mandate?’

For More Information
Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein. They are provided for education and entertainment only.
See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.
The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page. Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the just published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.” His focus is on Operational Technologies.
“People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962). For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game. You can contact this author as well.
For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.
Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.
For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts. If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

June 5, 2024
Business Snake (BS) Detector
With a Big Smile and a hand stretched out, customers are greeted as if they are long lost cousins.
Sound like the used car sales guy of the 1950″s? Perhaps, but still fairly typical today in many cases. So how does one assess the honesty of a business executive, sales representative, customer service or anyone we meet in a business setting? From one academic source, liars with evil intent may display some of the following traits:
There will likely be physical signs.
They’ll repeat the same story over and over.
They’ll be oddly chronological.
They’ll speak more eloquently.
They’ll drop or change pronouns.
Their sentences may be full of qualifiers.
We teach our children to beware of strangers–Stranger Danger! However, have you ever seen a very young child recoil when something does not seem just right? In this pundit opinion, babes are born with an understanding that not everyone is a good guy. This innate situational awareness (0pen this link, it is a wealth of information regarding personal safety) is in all of us.
I have always loved this song. It has a very clear message. a snake is a snake is a snake. So it is with business snakes. Their spots will not change.

How many of us have lost corporate political battles to outright liars? All, I suspect. Some interesting approaches towards deal with liars include:

Copying Tips

Be on guard and prepare

Keep records

Keep the focus on the relationship

Know not to trust behavior in the heat of the moment

Ignore them

Be patient

Don’t feel the need to call them out on everything

Confronting the Liar

Offer a way out before you address the lie

Disrupt the habit over and over

Allude to their lying patterns

Suggest therapy

Understanding the Liar

Know the difference between a pathological liar and a scumbag

Understand why they lie

Know they may hate who they actually are

Take care of yourself

The world is full of liar, criminals and other miscreate. The organizational world is a mirror of any society, so set your expectations accordingly. Moreover, as we know from cyber crime and scams evil does evolve. Make your your snake detector evolves as well.

How do you know if some seeks to take advantage of you or your organization?
For More Information
Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein. They are provided for education and entertainment only.
See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.
The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page. Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the just published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.” His focus is on Operational Technologies.
“People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962). For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game. You can contact this author as well.
For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.
Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.
For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts. If interested, check it out and give me a shout.
May 28, 2024
What Does ‘Systemic’ Actually Mean?

The word Systemic is tossed around quite loosely these days. Especially when discussing social issues and politics.

But what does it really mean when we say something is systemic by nature? By one definition it is, “Of or relating to a system or a system and other relating to or affecting the entire body or an entire organism.” Indeed a broad judgement.
So when we say an entire nation is a systemically ‘blank blank,’ does that include the prognosticator that is making that statement? Are those caught in the cross hairs of a so called systemic belief equally feel the same way about all other groups? Not bloody likely as my Brit buddies say.
How Do We Define a System?
One definition of the word includes the world or universe. Typically, we think of something smaller and ‘bounded.’ What do we mean by bounded? Readers might be surprised that this term is a mathematical term describing a function, sequence or variation of a function. In layman’s terms, systems have limits whether the human body, an organization, or society.
Systems also have ecosystems and are not all organic in and of them selves and they interact with other systems. For example, a commercial firm has suppliers and customers as well as local governments and even media outlets.
Therefore, complexity is an inherent components and human constituents to ALL systems. This stands by reason in our very robust and diverse world today.
As such human behavior can take many different decision paths regarding any given issue. We discuss these causal affects in our 2017 piece, Excellent Behaviors: Assessing Relationships in the Operational Excellence Ecosystem.
It Is Not That Easy
Defining the systemic nature of any system is very difficult. NO system can be defined by one word. Systems are complex sets of moving interdependent parts whose boundary is often ill defined.
Decision makers must assure they are using valid and reliability data as they define the problem they are trying to solve. Without such preparation, the answer put forth may be incorrect or meaningless.
Next time a colleague or pundit is tossing around the word ‘systemic’ as them what they mean and when they say it means ALL, ask them how do they know that?
In and of itself the term is meaningless. Without a detailed definition of the system being discussed, good decisions are not possible and most likely will be poorly implemented with predictable results.
So if you believe a system is a mess, how do you go about fixing? Methodical or emotional? One will work better that the other approach.
What do you mean when you say something is systemic?
If you need help with your complex system, see below and contact us.

For More Information

Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein. They are provided for education and entertainment only.

See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page. Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the just published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.” His focus is on Operational Technologies.

“People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962). For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game. You can contact this author as well.

For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts. If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

April 19, 2024
Sun Sets in the West: Science or Commentary?

One newscaster recently used the metaphor of the sun setting in the west as settled science so contrary views were not newsworthy. His argument–Fairness is Over Rated! What? One wonders whether this is true for those who believe the world is round or for those in the Flat Earth Society?

Yet most political commentary and views are not so apparent. Politicians and pundits constantly refer to ‘so-called’ settled science only to have new information surface. Moreover, we know how to test theories using the Scientific Method. Sadly, outside of formal academic style research this tool does not appear to be in vogue these days.

Sun Set

We learn the truism that the sun rises in the east in the morning and sets in the west (slightly seasonally adjusted). In fact, this calendar and timing have been known for several millennia. This process is measurable and repeatable. This phenomenon is supported by empirical data taken from experimentation and observation. The data is valid (accurate) and reliable (repeatable). Therefore, it follows that the knowledge of the sun setting in the west is based on science.

In My Opinion . . .

The 24/7 news cycle bombards us all with “Breaking News,” often several days after its occurrence. In their rush to get the ‘scoop‘ facts are not available at the time, overlooked or deliberately mangled or omitted. We are told that such and such is settled fact. And then it isn’t!

When one puts forth a position that while may be based on the certainty of one’s perspective on a matter, it often does not meet the test of the Scientific Method. By definition, this type of statement is a viewpoint or a sentiment. However, it can take on the mantle of science but is really Pseudo-Science as the hypothesis cannot be proved false.

One’s perspective or cognitive bias on a given subject can lead to the development of an organizational, policy, political or social agenda designed to sway thinking and thus support the development and implementation of initiatives designed to operationalize said ideas. Proponents often couch their position as “The Science.”

Contemporary Decisions

Our world is awash with significant economic and social challenges. Whether ESG, Covid-19, Climate Change or Inflation everyone has an opinion with data and/or studies to support their positions.

Consumers/Policy Makers/Decision Makers of these information will have to assess their value. How valid and reliable are the positions taken and what is the uncertainty and risk associated with their implementation?

The basis of all decisions include a level of incomplete or incorrect data. This phenomenon is where the military phase, “No plan survives first contact with the enemy” comes from.

So, it is with the confrontations of these four global issues. A robust discussion of the various points-of-view and their basis is necessary. Why is this not happening?

When statements that the ‘consensus’ of vast majority of experts/scientists is blah blah blah are made, this should be a major red flag. The statement that the ‘sun sets in the west’ has a significant body of knowledge behind it. There is a level of uncertainty with most other prognostications.

Louis Pasteur is credited with the statement, “Chance favors the prepared mind.” This is just as true today as when he was developing vaccines for the anthrax and rabies scourges of his day.

The best decisions are made even when controversial such as with Pasteur’s vaccines. Eisenhower’s decision about D-day had similar attributes of uncertainty and risk.

The United States, indeed the world has embarked on a multi-trillion dollar effort to solve the so-called existential threat of global warming. Politically charged, one wonders if any of the proponents and doomsayers are basing their positions on actual science.

How DARE THEY push false agendas that cost so much and will destroy economies. How DARE THEY!!

Are your organization’s decisions based on science or just someone’s opinion?

For More Information

Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein. They are provided for education and entertainment only.

The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.

“People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962). For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game. You can contact this author as well.

For more information regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

For those start-up firms addressing energy challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts. If interested, check it out and give us a shout.

August 1, 2022
Why Corporate Initiatives Fail

According to the Cambridge Dictionary, one definition of initiative is. “A new plan or action to improve something or solve a problem.” In corporate parlance this often translates into yet another short-term and often politically correct effort to demonstrate forward motion/social citizenship. Often forgotten faster than the evening news cycle as new searches for performance take their place.
Organizations of all types, public, private, profit and nonprofit etc. tend to announce new initiatives with great fanfare and pronouncements about ‘transforming our culture.’ So why do they continuously fall short of expectations?
According to a Forbes Survey released just before the pandemic, “When participants in our survey were asked to create a list of reasons for (change programs) failure, ‘insufficient budget’ was cited by 23% and ‘insufficient time’ by only 17%. Instead, participants ranked poor communication (62%), insufficient leadership and support (54%), organizational politics (50%), lack of understanding of the purpose of the change (50%), lack of user buy-in (42%) and lack of collaboration (40%) as the most critical issues.”
In aggregate, the article suggests a total failure rate of70%. This percentage level was first put forth in the early 1990s and is accepted by many as still correct today. While empirical evidence is sketchy, none-the-less, the perception of failure remains high.
This tracks with other project failure statistics this author has seen over the years. Yet, all of these failure attributes are human and therefore, manageable and correctable.
Today’s Buzz
The economy is always front and center. More so today given Inflation and Supply Chain problems.
In this blogger’s opinion and in order of priority other key issues include Diversity, Inclusion and Equity (DEI), Climate Change and Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG). While different organizations may face other challenges, these Four tend to dominate the news.
Often issues overlap or compound, thus exponentially amplifying the impact on society. For example, the electric vehicle (EV) is touted as a lynchpin to ‘fixing’ the Climate Change issue. However, supply chain issues currently limit battery production and one can surmise this is a long-term problem and not simply current shortages or delays. If this is correct, meeting desired climate metrics is problematic.
Diversity, Equity and Inclusion
Perhaps the most emotional of the Big Four, DEI seeks to level the so-called playing field for all regardless of ethnicity, gender or behavioral preferences. Almost all organizations have a DEI Initiative underway. Yet, they seem to be stalling much to the frustration of advocates.
According to one source, “The DEI industry is dominated by what scholars call ‘personnel managers,’ employees in human resources.” This is also the observation of this pundit as well.
LinkedIn profiles include, Chief Diversity Officers, any number of DEI consultants and others carrying similar titles as well as commercial organizations offering DEI products and solutions. Much like the plethora of Safety Culture ‘experts’ and tools that emerged after Deepwater Horizon offshore drilling rig disaster in 2010.
From a recent Korn Ferry article, “Experts say companies must treat DE&I as they would any other business issue and use data analytics to understand why things aren’t working.” This author interprets this to mean that DEI must be incorporated into ‘the way we do business‘ or part of the organization’s culture.
No longer a simple initiative, the next Chief Diversity Officer may be a Caucasian male or even redundant. Then, DEI will no longer be seen as a separate and different department.
Energy Transformation
The president of the United States recently said, ““ it comes to the gas prices, we’re going through an incredible transition that is taking place that, God willing, when it’s over, we’ll be stronger and the world will be stronger and less reliant on fossil fuels when this is over.” As many countries implement Climate Change policies, this transition is economically rough to say the least.
And with no guarantees that these efforts will actually reduce the earth’s temperature decades out, is this a Big Bet with major consequences to all of us. In our last blog, Innovation: The Key to the Global Future we addressed the economics in detail. Interested readers should refer to that piece.
An extensive assessment was developed by Bjorn Lomborg in his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet. His credentials include the fact that he believes in global warming and is not a ‘denier’ as the phase goes.
Caution to the lemmings jumping off the Energy Transition cliff, this is the ultimate initiative as it is political by nature. Fickle by nature, political winds can change quickly and with that the value proposition.
To some extent we are seeing this already as governments seek to address spirally energy costs, i.e., Germany restarts coal-fired power plants. We might see more of this after the US midterm elections in November.
ESG
This initiative is treated as if it is new. Well run companies have always enjoyed higher equity value.
In 2011, we published our White Paper, Asset/Equipment Integrity Governance: Operations–Enterprise Alignment. In that paper, we quoted, “During that period (2002), McKinsey & Company in conjunction with the Global Corporate Governance Forum conducted a study and found that over 75% of over 200 fund managers would value a stock at a higher price point if the company could demonstrate it had strong governance in place. Moreover, the study also revealed that for western markets, firms with strong shareholder rights averaged 12-14% higher stock prices.”
We previously addressed ESG in detail and how it fits in our Relationships, Behaviors, Conditions (RBC) Framework (risk mitigation). The operative word is Relationships. This will include every stakeholder, so the impact can be substantial.
For some organizations, ESG is new and the source of value in the annual Letter to Shareholders. For others, business as usual incorporates those premises. Begs the question, which organization would you like to invest in?
Concluding Thoughts
In this corporate animal’s experience, initiatives are seen as short-term events. Leadership’s ‘rubber stamp’ does not carry gravitas. Employees often ‘wait them out’ and go just about their business. Others create media splash which dies quickly as well. Only when change is codified in the organization’s culture do new approaches add sustained value.
Initiatives fail because neither the board room nor the factory floor see them as adding value. Fads driven by political winds, activists or social desires come and go.
Strong governance is a proven value add. A diverse workforce can add value but climate change as currently practiced will most like fail and fail Big and Expensive. Society has addressed similar economic issues and will again.
Are Your Organizational Initiatives Sustainable or Simply Fads?
For More Information
Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein. They are provided for education and entertainment only.
The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.
Disclaimer, the author has no personal or business relationship with Bjorn Lomborg or his publications other than reading and commenting on his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.
For those start-up firms addressing energy challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts. If interested, check it out and give us a shout.
For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game. You can contact this author as well.

June 21, 2022
Innovation: The Key to the Global Future
Henry Ford, the Founder of Ford Motor Company is famously attributed to this statement. “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.” In other words, most of us think linearly.

One wonders if this line of reasoning is the best way during the current situation. Perhaps, non-linear mindsets are more appropriate.

Challenges

Currently, many define an existential threat as Climate Change. Additionally, the global economy, the War in Ukraine, bad actors and other ills make the daily news. We are also told the time is of the essence. However, it appears the window will close before the appropriate linear responses can come online.

As the pandemic unfolded in early 2020, we penned a piece on the role innovation would play addressing the global scourge. We put forth some points we believed salient at the time such as:
- The rise of remote work
- The ability to scale quickly, i.e., vaccines, ventilators, et. al.
- Changes in Clinical Trial protocols
From the same blog, this pundit has long advocated that, “the use of knowledge enabled by technology can reduce project cycle time dramatically. It can also significantly reduce project cost as well.”

As we look back on that period, the collective global ‘we’ accomplished a lot. A plethora of useful materials were developed and published by all manner Subject Matter Experts (SME) as well as those with ‘life knowledge.’ We chose to capture and repost materials (Covid-19 Business Continuity Resources) that could of use to those business executives struggling with work force issues. These materials remain available.

Regrettable, the term SCIENCE was terribly misused, including by medical professionals and professional scientists, all of whom should have known better. This discussion is further developed in our blog, They Blinded Me with Science. For interested readers, the piece develops the concepts of science and pseudo-science as well as a brief methodology all can use to help them assess what they are being told about major issues.

Actual Science has moved humanity out of the caves and into our modern world. Likely, it can help us address current and future global challenges. The proven innovative use of the Scientific Method is one path forward.

SpaceX – NASA

Elon Musk is in the news for a number of reasons. He is perhaps one of the best know billionaires. In the opinion of this pundit, the partnership between his company SpaceX and NASA appears to be one of the most productive Public-Private Partnerships (PPP). Perhaps this good or best practice could be emulated by others seeking new ways to innovate.

Realistic Energy Transition

Energy Transition is all the rage with all manner or organization jumping on board. Somewhat reminds me of the late 1990s dot.com era. According to Wikipedia, after the ensuring bust, “the NASDAQ-100 had dropped to 1,114, down 78% from its peak.” Makes one wonder that this might not be the first rodeo for the latest ‘change the world shinny object.’

Previously, we noted that the replacement of a major highway ramp in Houston, TX USA is slated to take two years. Additionally, according to McKinsey, “The goal is to install 500,000 public chargers—publicly accessible charging stations compatible with all vehicles and technologies—nationwide by 2030.” Message: infrastructure development takes a certain amount of time.

Also from McKinsey, “Capital spending on physical assets for energy and land-use systems in the net-zero transition between 2021 and 2050 would amount to about $275 trillion, or $9.2 trillion per year on average, an annual increase of as much as $3.5 trillion from today. To put this increase in comparative terms, the $3.5 trillion is approximately equivalent, in 2020, to half of global corporate profits, one-quarter of total tax revenue, and 7 percent of household spending.”

As of this writing the global stock markets appear to be in freefall. Some believe, including this author that a Recession is imminent. This begs the obvious. How will this linear effort be paid for and what will be the return on this huge investment?

There must be a better way.

Innovate, Innovate, Innovate

In his recent book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet noted climate change advocate, Bjorn Lomborg expresses concern regarding linear type scenarios and investments being made reduces climate change to Net Zero.

He argues that regardless of efforts made such as described herein, we will not defeat global warming. The temperature will rise anyway.

If this is the case, then the ROI from a $275 trillion dollar commitment may in fact be negative. This might spell economic disaster at a sustained level.

Lomborg makes the case that innovation is key. His perspective seems to be more on university led research supported by governments. There is a role for government to fun basic research and many have for decades.

Entrepreneurs have been advancing humankind for hundreds of years. With proper market signals, we can expect a new generation to rise to the occasion addressing the energy transition and ultimately climate change.

The author is aware of a number of ‘Green’ efforts underway to encourage the development of new commercial technologies. While not advocating for investment in an Incubator or Accelerator, it seems reasonable that start-up organizations addressing these challenges be encouraged.

What Role Does Innovation Play in Your Firm’s Approach to Climate Change?.

For More Information

Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein. They are provided for education and entertainment only.

The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.

Disclaimer, the author has no personal or business relationship with Bjorn Lomborg or his publications other than reading and commenting on his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

For those start-up firms addressing energy challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts. If interested, check it out and give us a shout.

For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game. You can contact this author as well.
June 13, 2022