The Rapid Response Institute

Tag: climate change

  • Dot Bomb 2.0 — ai Style

    Dot Bomb 2.0 — ai Style

    Are we doing this again with Artificial Intelligence?

    On March 10, 2000, a five-year dotcom bubble bursts on the Nasdaq Index. Even blue-chip tech companies lost more than 80% of their market value and it would be 15 years before Nasdaq would see that peak again.  “The dotcom bubble, also known as the Internet bubble, grew out of a combination of the presence of speculative or fad-based investing, the abundance of venture capital funding for startups, and the failure of dotcoms to turn a profit. Investors poured money into Internet startups during the 1990s hoping they would one day become profitable. Many investors and venture capitalists abandoned a cautious approach for fear of not being able to cash in on the growing use of the Internet.”

    At the height of the dotcom hype, organizations were changing their name (not just the domain) to include this suffix, i.e. Acme.com.  This attempt to differentiate almost became silly and the butt of jokes.

    Increasingly, this pundit is seeing a similar thought process when it comes to artificial intelligence. The new marketing moniker/domain is now Acme.ai.  We predict .ai identification will end in flames as did .com.  This is not to say artificial intelligence will go away but that it will become mainstream, just as the Internet did not fade into marketing oblivion. Online business is now just the way we do business and access to it is available to all at a marginal cost that approaches zero.

    Branding

    Much of this section is adapted from our report prepared for a United Nations Agency.

    The concept of the Brand is well established in marketing literature and practice.  The Brand is a messaging vehicle that seeks to position all consumers and stakeholders “on the same page.”  As discussed herein, it is a powerful construct and may be of useful to the nuclear power sector as it seeks to embody an AI Culture into all stakeholders.

    The theory of the Brand Wheel is addressed herein.  To address the Key Themes and concerns raised during the conference, it appears that “AI Culture” may need to become a “Brand.”  Strong Brands generate a powerful emotional response!

    For example, a positive brand such as BMW’s “the ultimate driving machine” (at least in the USA) transcend other issues such as the high cost of maintenance of these automobiles.  Negative branding often can never be overcome as the Coca Cola Company learned when they launched “New Coke” in 1985.  This company almost ruined a long-standing strong brand!

    Construct

    We put forth a Brand mental model for debate within the industry.  In this section, the construct or set of organizing ideas for consideration are developed.

    In accordance with the theory, the AI Culture Brand Wheel (High Level Framework) is composed of two major categories:

    Facts & Symbols or those components of the Brand that address the “hard” and often more measurable aspects. 

    • What the Product, Service, or Solution does for ME
    • How I would Describe the Product, Service, or Solution

    Brand Personality addresses the more emotional side of the Brand

    • How the Brand make ME look
    • How the Brand makes ME feel

    Populating the Wheel

    The Groups (developed in a workshop) in the following diagram are believed to be representative of major issues the sector faces.  It follows that any marketing message to stakeholders should address their concerns.

    These four quadrants were populated with over twenty Groups from the Affinity Diagram process.  This is a high-level approach to populate the wheel with the almost 200 AI Culture issues (variables) identified from participants.

    The following table shows the Groups by Brand Wheel Quadrant and the Rationale behind the categorization.  The focus is on the individual person and how he or she relates to the AI Culture Brand.  By extension, how individual stakeholders feel is how their organization or group feels about the Brand.

    The Brand Wheel is an easy-to-use model that helps organization position themselves in crowded market segments.

    Graphically, these Groups are shown in the following figure.  Seven Groups fall in the top two quadrants as more tangible variables (Fact) by nature and four in the Personality quadrants.  One can surmise that a Brand such as Systemic AI Culture would require substantial “technical” support to be credible.

    The intangible Groups can be considered the Brand emotional delivery mechanisms.  Collectively, the Systemic AI Culture Brand can be considered a key aspect the industry Go-to-Market strategy—selling Systemic AI Culture.

    Similar to the way an Affinity Diagram adds high value to the team doing the work, developing the Brand Wheel adds significant value to the process itself.  Figures and charts are visual representations of concepts that are highly appealing.  The Brand Wheel is one method supported by the Affinity Diagram to capture a large set and sometimes conflicting issues into a model individuals can grasp and internalize.

    Finalizing the Brand

    A brand Tag Line would be helpful to etch the construct into the minds of all stakeholders.  For example, High Reliability Management used the concept of Mindfulness—the practice of maintaining a nonjudgmental state of heightened or complete awareness of one’s thoughts, emotions, or experiences on a moment-to-moment basis, also such a state of awareness (situational awareness).

    Concluding Thoughts

    To be clear, branding is not the end game in marketing but one of many prongs used to achieve strategic advantage and greater shareholder value.  It is a convenient framework that captures the essence of who the organization is.  This approach is immensely more successful than simply attaching .ai to the organization name, hoping for differentiation.  Any competitor can do exactly the same thing.

    Earn your value the old fashion way, with viable products that solve problems, customers, profits and return to shareholders. Forget about the hype!

    Is your organization taking Rudyard Kipling’s advice to his son, “If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs and blaming it on you, if you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
    but make allowance for their doubting too!”

    Pre order our new book

    Navigating the Data Minefields:

    Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making

    We are living in an era of data and software exponential growth.  A substantive flood hitting us every day.  Geek heaven!  But what if information technology is not your cup of tea and you may even have your kids help with your smart devices?  This may not be a problem at home; however, what if your job depends on Big Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI)?

    Available June 2025

    Ordering Information

    We are also pleased to advise our loyal readers that CRC Press has accepted our proposal for this forthcoming book, Nonlinear Big Data and AI-Enabled Problem-Solving: Transforming From A Spreadsheet Society.  Stay tuned for more details.

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is the coauthor of the 2023 book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be released by CRC Press in June 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross-Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg and his book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • Leadership Selling

    Leadership Selling

    “The price of greatness is responsibility.” – Winston Churchill

    I recently watched a documentary about Three Mile Island.  I did not fact check it or try to assess bias but if much of what went wrong were correctly portrayed, leadership was missing in action.  The father of the US Nuclear Navy, Admiral Hyman G. Rickover and his demand for excellence was referred to on several occasions.  He was rightfully positioned as THE sector leader during that era when nuclear power generation was an emerging technology.

    In the context of leadership, the following is attributed to him, “Responsibility is a unique concept… You may share it with others, but your portion is not diminished. You may delegate it, but it is still with you… If responsibility is rightfully yours, no evasion, or ignorance or passing the blame can shift the burden to someone else. Unless you can point your finger at the man who is responsible when something goes wrong, then you have never had anyone really responsible.”  This is a very telling statement that is applicable to the many human foibles that have resulted in cataphoric failures, even warfare and almost all high visibility major industrial incidents.

     A clear explanation of the difference between Management and Leadership.

    What Does All This Have to Do with Selling?

    Typically, organizations refer to the process of revenue generation as Sales.  However, a more accurate description this process is Selling.  The action verb, selling can result in a sale or series of sales.  Yet, for each competitive engagement most of these costly attempts at revenue generation will result in no sales–zero revenue.   Fail at enough opportunities and the firm’s Cost of Sales can skyrocket.

    Moreover, increasingly B2B solutions are a combination of products (seller product line and possibly third parties) as well as services (can include Cloud subscriptions).  By definition, Complex Sales is getting more complex and interrelated with other new/existing systems.

    Failure is Not an Option!

    “SUBSAFE was born in 1963, just two months after mechanical failures resulted in the loss of USS Thresher (SSN-593).  The program was started with a simple goal in mind: ‘. . . provide the maximum reasonable assurance that the ship will not have flooding but if flooding does occur, assures that the ship will get safely to the surface.’”  The program is deemed as a major life saving success, partially by enabling real responsibility to all including contractors.

    Safety and Environmental Management Systems (SEMS) are a similar construct.  Most organizations in Critical Infrastructure sectors incorporate SEMS into their Operations Management Systems (OMS).  For our purposes here, we will repurpose and slightly change the nine tenants of the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement’s BSEE, SEMS.

    We posit that the following Tenants comprising our Selling Management System (SMS):

    1. Commitment to Values and Actions. Leaders demonstrate a commitment to societal and organizational values in their decisions and behaviors.
    2. Issue Identification and Risk Management. Issues potentially impacting the deal and its successful delivery are promptly identified, fully evaluated, and promptly addressed or corrected commensurate with their significance.
    3. Personal Accountability. All individuals take personal responsibility for process and personal behavior, as well as the stewardship of those entrusted to them.
    4. Work Processes. The process of planning and controlling work activities so that the selling action items are in accordance with organizational mission and policies as well as boding well for success.
    5. Continuous Improvement. Opportunities to learn and codify selling and delivery knowledge, ensuing future success and organizational learning.
    6. Environment for Raising Concerns. A work environment is maintained where personnel feel free to raise issues and concerns without fear of retaliation, intimidation, harassment, or discrimination.
    7. Effective External and Internal Communication. Communications maintain a focus of the selling efforts and processes.
    8. Respectful Work Environment. Trust and respect permeate the organization with a focus on teamwork and collaboration.
    9. Inquiring Attitude. Individuals avoid complacency and continuously consider and review existing conditions and activities in order to identify discrepancies that might result in error or inappropriate action.

    It is not surprising that action items focused on revenue generation should align with business imperatives towards effective and efficient operations.  This is especially true when operations personnel are assigned to the pursuit team as they will play a major role assuring successful delivery, i.e. most capital (CAPEX) goods and services.

    Tenant 6, Environment for Raising Concerns is perhaps one of the most important when enabling junior leadership.  For example, if a material issue is identified by a new college graduate in her or his field and unnoticed by more senior individuals schooled in early technologies, failure to be “heard” may have deal failure ramifications, i.e., engineering or software errors.

    Leadership is not part of a title, except by self-serving politicians who routine call themselves leaders.  Leaders are not born either, they are individuals (all ages and genders) who when needed, rise to occasions great and small.  The Rickover Mind Model enables leaders to emerge and that includes leadership during selling processes.

    Complex Deal Pursuit Team

    A deal Pursuit Team is a formal group assigned to drive revenue opportunities for a single deal/long-term strategic relationship or even partnership.  It can be an ad hoc assemblage or more effectively the assembly of experts with this type of experience.  Ideally, for a significant opportunity this team has a sole focus during its lifecycle, but that is not always the case or even practical in some firms or deals.

    Team composition can include, Sales Representative(s), Sales Management, Sales Support Team (as required) Executive Sponsor (if appropriate), Subject Matter Expert(s), Project Management, Third Parties (subcontractors and/or technology/professorial services providers), and others as needed.  Not all participants will be required full time.

    Typically, there are three phases to this process:

    • Relationship and Opportunity Development–The relationship building processes between seller and buyer as well as identification of value that can be added from seller products/services/solutions.
    • Formal Proposal Submission–Development and draft (with revisions) of a documented Scope of Work/Products, Deliverables and Pricing.
    • Proposal Assessment and Acceptance–Buyer review, changes and agreement to move forward–The Deal!

    Leadership is required throughout this process, and it may come from very unlikely sources.  Often top-level technologists and engineers are not the most outgoing folks.  However, their thoughts can be game changing.  It is important that those on the quiet side be actively ‘Included,’ and their ideas sought out and given serious discussion.

    Role of AI Agents

    “AI sales agents are autonomous applications that analyze and learn from your sales and customer data to perform tasks with little or no human input. These agents can perform a wealth of functions, from top-of-funnel tasks like nurturing leads with email outreach, answering questions, booking meetings with sellers, and quote creation to tasks more deeply integrated inside sales teams, like active buyer roleplays and coaching. What makes them different from simple workflow automation is that agents are capable of learning, using data analysis to work more efficiently, taking action on their own.”

    The Pursuit Team is responsible for winning the deal and AI is another tool, not unlike product demonstrations and marketing efforts.  AI inputs should be calibrated and interpreted just like other data sources and analyses.

    Final Thoughts

    Remember that people buy from people and individuals on both the selling and buying teams have personal agendas, such as getting promoted.  Sellers who identify many/most of these concerns stand a better change of closing the deal.

    Closing deals generates jobs.  Both by the vendor and its ecosystem as well as the client who will use the product/service/solution to increase the stakeholder value ecosystem.  Stakeholders are broadly defined including local communities and customer’s customers.

    It is safe to say that the complex selling process is dramatically changing.  Time to get on board!

    Nothing happens until somebody sells something!  How is your company assuring the selling process is routinely successful?

    Pre order our new book

    Navigating the Data Minefields:

    Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making

    We are living in an era of data and software exponential growth.  A substantive flood hitting us every day.  Geek heaven!  But what if information technology is not your cup of tea and you may even have your kids help with your smart devices?  This may not be a problem at home; however, what if your job depends on Big Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI)?

    Available April 2025

    Ordering Information

    We are also pleased to advise our loyal readers that CRC Press has accepted our proposal for this forthcoming book, Nonlinear Big Data and AI-Enabled Problem-Solving: Transforming From A Spreadsheet Society.  Stay tuned for more details.

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is the coauthor of the 2023 book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be released by CRC Press in April 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross-Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg and his book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • Reputation, Reputation, Reputation

    Reputation, Reputation, Reputation

    “It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it.  If you think about that, you’ll do things differently.”

    – Warren Buffett

    It is fascinating how many accident videos get posted to social media.  Guess we all go to NASCAR races to see car wrecks.  In some cases, videos are personal disasters for those involved.  In some cases, they are downright funny and in the category of what were they thinking.

    Equipment and facilities damage, lost production/project time, personal injury litigation are just some obvious costs.  One hidden cost is reputational damage.  Would you hire a firm that hires, does not train, and/or tolerates some of this behavior?  Probably not, and in some case a strong safety record is part of the procurement decision process.

    Risk Mitigation

    Most of the social media video show failures in occupational safety.  Typically, in the United States these would fall under the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) and/or state and local safety regulations.  This is laudable, but without a broader safety governance framework, a lackadaisical attitude can continue.

    Under a Strong Bond Governance Framework, a robust Operations Management System (OMS) enables both public and private firms to realize the Safety Culture they seek that will keep them off the social media most watched list.

    Strong Bond Governance

    An organizational governance model with the following attributes first put forth by the author in our seminal 2014 book, following the Deepwater Horizon incident.

    • Direct, defined relationships that enables open and valid information between governance members.
    • Led by authorities who are closely connected and strongly bonded.
    • Strong Governance, Risk, and Compliance (GRC) system.
    • Back office and field processes combined into a single information model (OT-IT).
    • Designed for application and use in Mission-Critical Environments. [i]

    [i] Holland, Winford “Dutch” E. and Shemwell, Scott M. (2014). Implementing a Culture of Safety: A Roadmap to Performance-Based Compliance. New York: Xlibris.

    Operational Excellence

    Operational Excellence is the execution of the business strategy more consistently and reliably than the competition, with lower operational risk, lower operating costs, and increased revenues relative to its competitor.  It is needed more than ever in today’s technology driven rapidly changing business models, which require organizations to undergo end-to-end business transformation. Operational Excellence can also be viewed as execution excellence. 

    However, the focus of Operational Excellence goes beyond the traditional continuous improvement methods to a long-term change in organizational culture.  Companies in pursuit of Operational Excellence do two things significantly differently than other companies: they manage their business and operational processes systematically and invest in developing the right culture. 

    Operational Excellence manifests itself through integrated performance across revenue, cost, and risk. It focuses on meeting customer expectation through the continuous improvement of the operational processes and the culture of the organization.  The goal is to develop one single, integrated enterprise level management system with ideal flow.  The second component, a culture of Operational Discipline, is commonly described as doing the right thing, the right way, every time.  This culture is built upon guiding principles of integrity, questioning attitude, always problem-solving, daily continuous improvement mind-set, level of knowledge, teamwork, and process driven.

    Organizations attain and sustain Operational Excellence using tools such as Operations Management System OMS).

    A Typical OMS Framework includes all the major areas involved in organizational processes such as shown in this graphic.

    OMS is a collection of processes and procedures enabling a company to effectively manage business practices and achieve the highest level of Operational Excellence in daily operations.

    One of the more notable examples is the Safety and Environmental Management System (SEMS).  SEMS embodies the Safety Culture into the organization’s OMS.  This systemic model is incorporated into a Strong Bond Governance Framework causing safety to become ‘the way we do business.’  In other words, the culture of the organization and by extension its Ecosystem.

    Systemic Safety Culture

    In a culture of safety, people are not merely encouraged to work toward change; they take action when it is needed.  Inaction in the face of safety problems is taboo, and eventually the pressure comes from all directions — from peers as well as leaders. There is no room in a culture of safety for those who uselessly point fingers or say, “Safety is not my responsibility, so I’ll file a report and wash my hands of it.” 

    — Institute for Healthcare Improvement

    Systemic Safety Culture is the Core Set of Values and Behavioral Economics of ALL participants of the extended organization and its Enterprise Risk Management strategy that reflect a Strong Bond Governance commitment to behaving as a High Reliability Enterprise Ecosystem in a safe and environmentally responsible manner.

    Most Safety Cultures have a set of tenets similar to the nine shown in the following list.  These are based on those developed by the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement’s (BSEE) for marine offshore oil and gas operations and are typical of those used in other Critical Infrastructure sectors.

    Nine Tenets of a Culture of Safety

    1. Leadership
    2. Problem Identification and Resolution
    3. Personal Accountability
    4. Work Processes
    5. Continuous Learning
    6. An Environment for Raising Concerns
    7. Effective Communications
    8. Trust and Respect
    9. Inquiring Attitude

    Finally, it is common practice for parties to refer to a singular industry ‘Safety Culture.’  In reality since each organization has its own culture, there are literally hundreds if not thousands of Safety Cultures in any critical infrastructure sector.  As shown in the above figure, each individual can interact routinely with a myriad of other cultures, both internal to their organization as well as with external economic players.

    After the Deepwater Horizon disaster in 2010, the authors quickly recognized that all economic players in the industry regardless of size would need to immediately adopt a Safety Culture if they were to survive.

    The resulting 2014 book, Implementing a Culture of Safety: A Roadmap for Performance Based Compliance remains one the few that readers can use as a roadmap to incorporate a Safety Culture into their Operational Excellence business model regardless of industry.

    Smart OpEx

    Fifteen years ago, large organizational Operations Management Systems were struggling to incorporate structural safety as more than the so-called, ‘slips, trips and falls’ of OSHA regulations to one where safety is endemic to the culture.  Smaller firms, often participants in the supplier ecosystem were largely forgiven.  The logic being that the major contractors and operators would assure that the final work product met Safety Culture requirements.  This is no longer the case.  Firms of all sizes in every business sector with an operations component now require an OMS to manage not just internal operations but third-party contractors as well.

    The Smart OpEx Operations Management System software solution is joint venture between The Rapid Response Institute LLC and Knowledge Ops, Inc.

    As Mr. Buffet mentions, reputations can be lost in an instant.  According to a 2007 Harvard Business Review article, “In an economy where 70% to 80% of market value comes from hard-to-assess intangible assets such as brand equity, intellectual capital, and goodwill, organizations are especially vulnerable to anything that damages their reputations.”  While almost 20 years old, the premise of the HBR piece remains the case as Boeing, Bud Light, and others can attest.

    Put systems with checks and balances in place that enable the organizational governance and protect the company from entering the Halls of the Disreputable.

    An individual’s and organization’s reputation are everything.  How are you assuring both are protected?

    Pre order our new book

    Navigating the Data Minefields:

    Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making

    We are living in an era of data and software exponential growth.  A substantive flood hitting us every day.  Geek heaven!  But what if information technology is not your cup of tea and you may even have your kids help with your smart devices?  This may not be a problem at home; however, what if your job depends on Big Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI)?

    Available April 2025

    Ordering Information

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is the coauthor of the 2023 book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be released by CRC Press in April 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross-Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg and his book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • Value from Elon Musk’s ‘Idiot Index’?

    Value from Elon Musk’s ‘Idiot Index’?

    “If the ratio is high, you’re an idiot.” – Elon Musk

    “Musk developed the ‘idiot index,’ which calculated how much more costly a finished product was than the cost of its basic materials.  If a product had a high idiot index, its cost could be reduced significantly by devising more efficient manufacturing techniques.”

    Effectively, what he is saying that if the Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) is too high, a product may either become too expensive or not sell well, if at all.  This is the basic Supply-Demand curve from Economics 101.  He is also indicating that Gross Profit will be negatively impacted as well.

    It’s the Cost Structure Stupid

    Paraphrasing the candidacy of Bill Clinton in 1992, an organization needs to develop a cost structure that not only lowers Total Cost as low as possible but sustains this approach while assuring the produced product/service is fit-for-purpose.

    According to the Corporate Finance Institute, “Cost structure refers to the various types of expenses a business incurs and is typically composed of fixed and variable costs.  Costs may also be divided into direct and indirect costs.  Fixed costs are costs that remain unchanged regardless of the amount of output a company produces, while variable costs change with production volume.

    Direct costs are costs that can be attributed to a specific product or service, and they do not need to be allocated to the specific cost object.  Indirect costs are costs that cannot be easily associated with a specific product or activity because they are involved in multiple activities.

    Operating a business must incur some kind of costs, whether it is a retail business or a service provider.  Cost structures differ between retailers and service providers, thus the expense accounts appearing on a financial statement depend on the cost objects, such as a product, service, project, customer or business activity.  Even within a company, cost structure may vary between product lines, divisions or business units, due to the distinct types of activities they perform.”

    We see that cost management is much more than simply lowering the procurement costs of parts or subcomponents going into the manufacturing product.  It is all about the design of the firm and its culture!

    Parasite Control

    One of the challenges all organizations face is ‘Cost Creep.’  Management needs to but guardrails in place to assure a low-cost structure business model remains that way.  Service firms are just as susceptible as manufactures. 

    According to one source circa 2000, professional services cost creep aka parasite control can be defined as, “Too many people whose services are not really required trying to use it as their meal ticket.”  Originally used in the context of the space exploration sector; however, in this writer’s opinion this issue is not restricted to that one industrial segment.

    At one point in my career, I was the executive responsible for a number of large successful simultaneous consulting engagements.  Other projects were either not doing as well or winding down.  Two things started happening.

    First, I discovered that those not on one of my projects were trying to bill their time to one or more projects.  Either as a direct ‘accounting code’ attempt or more frequently as a ‘contributor.’  One individual even tried to charge for his local mileage under the premise that while he lived in Houston, he was tied to a practice in Atlanta.  Thus, in his opinion he was remote.

    Point being, any project can be subject to parasite control.  “Cost Creep” is an ongoing managerial problem that must be shut down when found, the real costs clawed back and allocated correctly.

    Robust Cost Management

    Aggressively addressing costs at all levels is neither idiotic nor stupid.  It has always been a business fact of life and as of this writing, the federal government bureaucracy is discovering it is the ‘new normal.’

    Moreover, this never-ending pursuit of cost perfection will have a new player shortly.  Artificial Intelligence (AI) is rapidly gaining traction in our everyday operations.  The audit process is part of cost management, and we already have examples of the use of AI in the audit process.  Expect more to come and sooner rather than later.

    We have an Operations Management System implementation underway where AI will play a pivotal role in Phase II later this year.  We will report back once it has ‘gone live.’

    What are your organization’s plans to vigorously manage costs?

    Pre order our new book

    Navigating the Data Minefields:

    Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making

    We are living in an era of data and software exponential growth.  A substantive flood hitting us every day.  Geek heaven!  But what if information technology is not your cup of tea and you may even have your kids help with your smart devices?  This may not be a problem at home; however, what if you job depends on Big Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI)?

    Available April 2025

    Ordering Information

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is the coauthor of the 2023 book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be released by CRC Press in April 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross-Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg and his book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • Can Machines Think?

    Can Machines Think?

    In 1950, the mathematician Alan Turing put forth this question.  Rather than attempt to answer it using conventional logic, he proposed a new disruptive model–the Imitation Game.

    The Problem

    One can look at Alan Turing (1912-1954) as the “father of theoretical computer science and artificial intelligence.”  His contributions to modern computer science cannot be understated.  He posited whether computers could one day have the cognitive capabilities of humans.  Some argue that day has arrived.  Yet, how do we know?

    The Turing Game

    The Imitation Game is played by three people (humans).

    (A) a Man,

    (B) a Woman, and

    (C) an Interrogator (of either gender)

    • The Interrogator, segregated into a separate room, is to determine which of the two players is the man and which is the woman.
    • The interrogator askes the two players (known only as “X and Y” or “Y and X”) a series of questions, the answers to which are written or passed through an intermediary so as not to expose the player’s gender.
    • The role of Player (B) is to assist (C) determine the gender of (A), while (A) is to deceive (C).

    However,

    • “What will happen when a machine takes the part of A in this game?  Will the interrogator decide wrongly as often when the game is played like this as he does when the game is played between a man and a woman?  These questions replace our original, Can Machines Think?“

    In his paper, Turing goes to elaborate in detail but for our purposes, the bottom line.

    Will the error rate from a human only decision process be the same as when a machine (digital decision maker) become one of the players?

    Early AI and the Turing Test

    In 1955, McCarthy and Shannon, along with Marvin Minsky and Nathaniel Rochester, defined the AI problem as, “that of making a machine behave in ways that would be called intelligent if a human were so behaving.  In 2013, when asked about Turing’s test in a taped interview, Minsky said, ‘The Turing test is a joke, sort of, about saying a machine would be intelligent if it does things that an observer would say must be being done by a human.’”   This materially connects the early definition of the AI problem to Turing’s test.

    Our intent here is not to split academic hairs but to put forth this concept that predates most readers and is typically not a subject of serious discussion.  The point being that the problem was documented 75 years ago or earlier and this pioneering thinking is the basis of our contemporary definition and implementation of Artificial Intelligence.

    Before Turing

    In one sense, we all stand on the shoulders of giants who preceded us.  “When you think about the origins of computer science, the name Ada Lovelace might not come to mind immediately—but it should.  Born in 1815, Ada Lovelace was an English mathematician and writer whose visionary work laid the foundation for modern computing.  Collaborating with Charles Babbage (considered to be the father of computing), the inventor of the Analytical Engine, Lovelace wrote what is widely recognized as the first algorithm designed for a machine.”

    “Ada was the first to explicitly articulate this notion and in this she appears to have seen further than Babbage.  She has been referred to as ‘prophet of the computer age‘.  Certainly, she was the first to express the potential for computers outside mathematics.”  In the computer Familia, we might also want to think of her as the grandmother of computing.

    Other women who played a major role in the evolution of Artificial Intelligence (after Turing) include Navy Rear Admiral Grace Hopper, the inventor of the first compiler for a programming language as well as other innovations.  Many others made significant contributions.  No doubt women will continue to play a vital role with this game changing technology.

    The Solution(s)

    Twelve years have passed since Minsky’s statement that the Turing test is a joke.  Today’s artificial intelligence capability has changed that landscape.

    The argument becomes, not can ‘we’ meet the Turing test, but how far and fast will it be eclipsed.  This suggests exciting times with associated challenges and risks.

    Contemporary Thinking about the Test

    “As AI systems are increasingly deployed in high-stakes scenarios, we may need to move beyond aggregate metrics and static benchmarks of input–output pairs, such as the Beyond the Imitation Game Benchmark (BIG-bench). We should be prepared to evaluate an AI’s cognitive abilities in a way that resembles the realistic settings in which it will be used.  This can be done with modern Turing-Like Tests.”  As shown in the following figure.

    “Looking ahead, Turing-like AI testing that would introduce machine adversaries and statistical protocols to address emerging challenges such as data contamination and poisoning.  These more rigorous evaluation methods will ensure AI systems are tested in ways that reflect real-world complexities, aligning with Turing’s vision of sustainable and ethically guided machine intelligence.”

    Computer Game Bot Turing Test

    “The computer game bot Turing test is a variant of the Turing test, where a human judge viewing and interacting with a virtual world must distinguish between other humans and video game bots, both interacting with the same virtual world. This variant was first proposed in 2008 by Associate Professor Philip Hingston of Edith Cowan University, and implemented through a tournament called the 2K BotPrize.”

    This pundit believes that the Turning test dam has been broken, and greater things lie ahead.

    Today’s Father of AI – Geoffrey Hinton, The Nobel Prize in Physics 2024

    “When we talk about artificial intelligence, we often mean machine learning using artificial neural networks. This technology was originally inspired by the structure of the brain.  In an artificial neural network, the brain’s neurons are represented by nodes that have different values.  In 1983–1985, Geoffrey Hinton used tools from statistical physics to create the Boltzmann machine, which can learn to recognize characteristic elements in a set of data.  The invention became significant, for example, for classifying and creating images.”

    Together with John J. Hopfield, they used physics to find patterns in information.  Dr. Hinton has expressed some concerns regarding his (AI) child as he states in the following interview from October 9, 2023.

    Theoretical Basis of Tests

    In this pundit’s opinion, the Turing test used Game Theory as a fundamental underpinning.  A later theory, Relationships, Behaviors and Conditions enables newer derivatives of the original Turing Test as well as supports different approaches to the problem.  These theories are briefly described.

    Finally, it is not necessary to read this section, as these details are provided for completeness and to support the position taken.  We understand that this level of detail is not for every reader.

    Over the past few years, there has been an impassioned argument regarding ‘The Science.”  We addressed this issue in 2020, and the following paragraph is taken from that Blog, They Blinded Me with Science.

    “According to Scientific American, Scientific claims are falsifiable—that is, they are claims where you could set out what observable outcomes would be impossible if the claim were true—while pseudo-scientific claims fit with any imaginable set of observable outcomes.  What this means is that you could do a test that shows a scientific claim to be false, but no conceivable test could show a pseudo-scientific claim to be false.

    Sciences are testable, pseudo-sciences are not.”

    There is academic peer reviewed agreement that both Game Theory and RBC hypotheses are testable.

    Game Theory

    Concurrent with Turing’s Imitation Game development, game theory was being formalized as an approach towards economic behavior modeling among economic ‘rational’ actors.

    “Game theory emerged as a distinct subdiscipline of applied mathematics, economics, and social science with the publication in 1944 of Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, a work of more than six hundred pages written in Princeton by two Continental European emigrés, John von Neumann, a Hungarian mathematician and physicist who was a pioneer in fields from quantum mechanics to computers, and Oskar Morgenstern, a former director of the Austrian Institute for Economic Research.  They built upon analyses of two-person, zero-sum games published in the 1920s.”  This treatise was developed from the works of other pioneers of the 1920s and 1930s.

    An interesting side note, “The software industry is a little over half a century old (in 2005), but its roots date back to the textile loom programming of the seventeenth century that powered the Charles Babbage Difference Engine. In 1946, ENIAC (Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer), the first large-scale general-purpose electronic computer built at the University of Pennsylvania, ushered in the modern computing era.

    That same year (1946), John von Neumann coauthored a paper, Preliminary Discussion of the Logical Design of an Electronic Computing Instrument.  The von Neumann general purpose architecture defines the process of executing a continuous cycle of extracting an instruction from memory, processing it, and storing the results has been used by programmers ever since.“(1) 

    Perhaps, this is part of the collision of the two major breakthroughs: Game Theory and the modern Computer Architecture.

    In 1996, this author’s doctoral dissertation, Cross Cultural Negotiations between Japanese and American Businessmen: A Systems Analysis, (Exploratory Study) was “An exploratory test of this framework in the context of two-person zero-sum simulated negotiation between Japanese businessmen and American salesmen, both living and working in the United States.  The integration of structural (game theory) and process theories (RBC) into a dynamic systems model seeks to better understand the nature of complex international negotiations.  Advanced statistical techniques, such as structural equation modeling are useful tools providing insight into these negotiation dynamics.”

    This work is the basis for the Cloud based Serious Games used to train Cross Cultural Teams.

    Relationships, Behaviors and Conditions (RBC) Framework

    This model has been part of numerous this pundit’s writings since 1996.  A brief overview from a 2011 article follows.

    “The Relationships, Behaviors, and Conditions (RBC) model was originally developed to address issues around cross cultural (international) negotiation processes.   Relationships are the focal point of this perspective, reflecting commonality of interest, balance of power and trust as well as intensity of expressed conflict.

    Behavior in this model is defined as a broad term including multidimensions – intentional as well as unintentional.  Finally, Conditions are defined as active and including circumstances, capabilities and skills of the parties, culture, and the environment.  Of course, time is a variable in this model as well.

    One key feature of the R B C Framework is its emphasis on interactive relationships while providing an environment for multiple levels of behavioral analysis. This makes it a useful tool to better understand the new regulatory processes currently unfolding.  As we will see later, the number of constituents now engaged belays the use of simplistic linear decision models.”(2)

    Operational Excellence

    The following excerpt from our 2017 Blog, Excellent Behaviors: Assessing Relationships in the Operational Excellence Ecosystem addresses the role of the RBC Framework in organizational excellence.

    “One of the hot business buzzwords of 2017 is “Operational Excellence.” It has been the subject for many pundits, including this one.

    In October and November we published a two-part series, Assuring Operational Excellence from Contractors and Their Subcontractors through BTOES Insights.  Each part included a link to additional information.

    The October edition featured an excerpt of our Implementing a Culture of Safety book. In the November edition we released our new Best Practice solution, Attaining & Sustaining Operational Excellence: A Best Practice Implementation Model. We are proud to make it available herein and in general.

    One of the basic tenets of the RBC Framework is the general construct that Relationships cannot be determined a priori.  The well-used example is a man and a woman sitting on a bench at a bus stop.  Are they married, siblings, coworkers, friends or simply two people waiting to catch the same/different bus?

    Their relationship cannot be known directly. However, their Behaviors will provide insight into how they relate to each other.  Romantic behavior may indicate marriage, dating, an affair etc.  They may still be coworkers but most likely are not strangers.

    The third dimension, Conditions (environment) can be considered the stage upon which behaviors play.  So, what does this have to do with Operational Excellence?

    Another component of our digital environment is Human Systems Integration (HSI). In our forthcoming book, we have defined HSI as, “Human Systems Integration (HSI) considers the following seven domains: Manpower, Personnel, Training, Human Factors Engineering, Personnel Survivability, Habitability, and Environment, Safety and Occupational Health (ESOH).  In simple terms, HSI focuses on human beings and their interaction with hardware, software, and the environment.”

    We have crossed the Turing Rubicon.  How will your organization capitalize on these Opportunities?

    Hardcopy References

    1. Shemwell, Scott M. (2005). Disruptive Technologies—Out of the Box. Essays on Business and Information Technology Alignment Issues of the Early 21st Century. New York: Xlibris. p. 127.

    2. _______ (2011, January). The Blast Heard Around the World. Petroleum Africa Magazine. pp. 32-35.

    Pre order our new book

    Navigating the Data Minefields:

    Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making

    We are living in an era of data and software exponential growth.  A substantive flood hitting us every day.  Geek heaven!  But what if information technology is not your cup of tea and you may even have your kids help with your smart devices?  This may not be a problem at home; however, what if you job depends on Big Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI)?

    Available April 2025

    Ordering Information

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is the coauthor of the 2023 book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be released by CRC Press in April 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross-Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg and his book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • Who Owns the Intellectual Property Generated by AI?

    Who Owns the Intellectual Property Generated by AI?

    Disclaimer:  The author is not an attorney, and this document is not meant to be a legal opinion in any sense.  Interested readers should contact their legal counsel for any Intellectual Property (IP) determination.  This blog simply raises a question that is generally not addressed regarding ownership rights of the content and products developed using artificial intelligence emerging technologies.  One suspects that going forward, this issue will become more forefront.

    Moreover, this is a fast-moving environment with new local laws and promulgated regulations continuously updated.  Readers are cautioned that some of the materials herein may be quickly dated.  Appropriate legal counsel and other experts should be consulted.

    Like most new software technologies, there is a period of the Wild West where anything seems to go.  Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been no different, but now these horses are beginning to be reined in.

    It is generally accepted that the ownership of content developed using third party software belongs to the generator of said content.  Data, the results of analytics and their interpretation, computer generated audio video materials, etc. are generally covered by this convention and codified by law.  The spreadsheet vendor does not own the financial analysis that leads to major value add to the firm.  Conversely, if the financial model is flawed, the software developer is generally not liable.

    However, Artificial Intelligence is a different technology model.  It dictates that organizational AI policies recognize the disruptive change caused.  For example, the publisher of my new book, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making has issued its author, AI Policy.

    An AI engine searches for data and information from a wide variety of sources.  It then amalgamates and analyzes and/or develops what some consider a new product or solution–document, image, or new approach/model, e.g. medical technique.  However, did the AI secure permission from the data owner(s) or even cite its source(s)?  The most likely answer is no.  A follow-on statement might be, “why do we need that?”

    Copyright

    According to the U.S. Copyright Office, “Copyright is a type of intellectual property that protects original works of authorship as soon as an author fixes the work in a tangible form of expression.  In copyright law, there are a lot of different types of works, including paintings, photographs, illustrations, musical compositions, sound recordings, computer programs, books, poems, blog posts, movies, architectural works, plays, and so much more!”  The Copyright Office goes on to state, “Works are original when they are independently created by a human author and have a minimal degree of creativity.”
     
    In the UK, “Two conflicting views emerged.  The tech sector believes the copyright to AI-generated content should belong to users, whereas the creative sector wants this content to be excluded from ownership completely.”
     
    From a 2022 Reuters article about a lawsuit over, Gen AI generated content.
    “Accordingly, unless a generative AI is used in such a manner that its output would be recognizably linked to some person or entity who is likely to actively police the use of their works and whose works are likely to be registered, the risk of the generative AI’s users being sued for infringement seems low.
     
    In practice, the legal issues surrounding generative AI mean that its outputs should be handled in a manner similar to materials covered by open source or creative commons licenses — i.e., with policies and procedures which ensure use only in appropriate manners and cases.  This includes determining if a project where generative AI would be used is something whose results would need to be protected and, if so, determining whether tools are available for that protection other than copyright.
     
    It also includes avoiding high risk uses, such as using generative AI to attempt to replicate the work of a particular artist whose materials were used as training data. However, with intentionality and forethought, the risks associated with generative AI can be managed, and this new technology can bring tremendous benefits to those who deploy it intelligently.“
     
    Later, we will address two other types of Intellectual Property, Patents and Trademarks.  Both have a lengthy pedigree as well that must be considered in our new AI era.
     

    Data Privacy

    Data privacy and security are major issues organizations must deal with, and the regulatory burden is onerous.  Most readers have heard of HIPPA; the need to keep individual medical records confidential.  HIPPA is symptomatic of the need to treat ALL data in secure and private.

    From the GDPR, “The General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) is the toughest privacy and security law in the world.  Though it was drafted and passed by the European Union (EU), it imposes obligations onto organizations anywhere, so long as they target or collect data related to people in the EU.  The regulation was put into effect on May 25, 2018.   The GDPR will levy harsh fines against those who violate its privacy and security standards, with penalties reaching into the tens of millions of euros.”

    The EU regulations are viewed as the ‘gold standard’ and others worldwide are in the process of emulating them.  Increased date management regulations are a given, as is their impact on AI learning.

    IP Guardrails

    Individuals and organizations jealously guard their intellectual properties, as they should.  Just think of the significant value Disney has built over 100 years from a cartoon mouse.

    Some may see AI as an assault on the organization’s core and take legal action they believe appropriate.  Others will try to capitalize on loopholes.  This is not different behavior from the IP current practice.

    AI advocates will find themselves in the midst of what could be a significant number of legal challenges as the technology and its regulation matures.  The current long-standing legal battles over social media platforms is but one example of this process.

    IP Ownership of AI Generated Content: The Movie

    Summary of the Video

    Briefly, in the video dated January 7, 2024, the attorney makes the following key points:

    • Copyright extends only to humans and AI content generated by products such as ChatGPT do not meet the ‘human’ authorship test.  However, if a human is actively engaged in the development of (and change) said content, things get less clear.
    •  Regarding AI generated inventions, Patent law becomes more relevant.  The speaker argues that ‘at least today’ patent laws mirror copyright because human creativity is key.
    • As far as AI generated Trademarks are concerned, these products such as logos, tag lines, etc. do not enjoy original authorship protection, but their ‘first use’ has precedence.  For more information he references the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO).
    • Finally, he states that this area of the law is unfolding, and change is likely.

    These points were transcribed by this pundit.  As such, they are only his perception and must be viewed skeptically when addressing a specific ‘real’ question regarding this subject matter.  The attorney’s fifth bullet is probably the most important one.

    Final Thoughts

    Intellectual Property ownership is an area that technologists and software developers are generally not involved with.  Additionally, many have historically treated the content found online as if it is in the public domain.  We now know that authorship should be attributed.

    For most of the things individuals and organizations do with online content this is not an issue.  Blogs, political opinion and technology critique among others come to mind.

    However, AI has the potential to change fortunes (wealth, reputation and other) of individuals and organizations.  Finally, the regulatory environment is evolving, and dramatic changes are most likely forthcoming.

    Individual creators, management and others have a responsibility to assure AI developed content meets, and not just the regulations (in each jurisdiction the firm operates in).  Moreover, governance enforcement models must add AI technologies and assure that others are not infringing on the firm’s IP with potential risks of capital and reputational loss.

    One Last Thing

    With the need to protect data as well as assure all key intellectual property is protected, will this negatively impact on the output of AI models?  What will be the basis of gen AI training if it cannot gain access to the universe of data they require?  And yes, I know we often sign away certain rights when we engage with some organizations, but we can ‘opt out’ of allowing access to our data.

    Another Blog for a later time but in the meantime, just a question.

    How is your organization addressing these and other Intellectual Property issues emerging from Gen AI and other content developers?

    Pre order our new book

    Navigating the Data Minefields:

    Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making

    We are living in an era of data and software exponential growth.  A substantive flood hitting us every day.  Geek heaven!  But what if information technology is not your cup of tea and you may even have your kids help with your smart devices?  This may not be a problem at home; however, what if you job depends on Big Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI)?

    Available April 2025

    Ordering Information

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is the coauthor of the recently published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be published by CRC Press in 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross-Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg and his book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • Strategic Sourcing?

    Strategic Sourcing?

    Is outsourcing software development strategic or simply a cost saving method?

    It Depends

    The most infamous words in software development.  Yes, it depends on the task at hand, but this cop out has long been a way to forego the development of a robust economic value and risk assessment.

    According to one vendor, “Engineering started becoming a commodity.”  But is this true if your product and organizational reputation are based on the long-earned perception that your organization provides the very best in safe and cost-effective solutions?

    What is your solution must work all the time, every time, e.g. medical equipment?  The list goes on, but readers get the point.

    Strategic Sourcing

    According to CIPS, the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply, “Strategic sourcing is about having a targeted approach to your procurement activity.  A sourcing strategy will help you to formalise the way you gather information, so you can find the best possible value that aligns with your organisation’s goals, long term.  Strategic sourcing is a long-term process and requires continuous re-evaluation of sourcing activities, analysis of the market and recognising your organisations goals.

    Strategic sourcing is important because it can help you save costs through the monitoring of the market and sourcing the right suppliers.  It also acts as a way to maintain long-term relationships with suppliers and they are selected on their compatibility with your organisation’s goals.”

    While strategic sourcing has its value, it cannot replace organization core competency.  These are two very different business requirements.

    Core Competency

    From One definition, “core competencies refer to the capabilities, knowledge, skills and resources that constitute its defining strengths.  Core competencies distinguish a company from other organizations and are, therefore, not easily replicated by those organizations, whether they’re existing competitors or new entrants into its market.”

    Not all engineering meets the test of core competency, but management must perform proper ‘due diligence’ before outsourcing technology and processes that either do or might meet this test.  In other words, effective Risk Profiling.

    Max 8 Headlines, Again

    The once storied aerospace firm, Boeing just can’t seem to catch a break.  A self-made purgatory: the gift that keeps on giving.  Offshoring engineering software development as a cost saving method appears to have backfired.

    Damningly, Multiple investigations – including a Justice Department criminal probe – are trying to unravel how and when critical decisions were made about the Max’s software.  During the crashes of Lion Air and Ethiopian Airlines planes that killed 346 people, investigators suspect, the MCAS system pushed the planes into uncontrollable dives because of bad data from a single sensor.

    That design violated basic principles of redundancy for generations of Boeing engineers, and the company apparently never tested to see how the software would respond, Lemme said.  “It was a stunning fail,” he said.  “A lot of people should have thought of this problem – not one person – and asked about it.”

    To this observer, it appears that this software met the test for core competency.  If this is the case, why would this be outsourced to save a few bucks?  It certainly appears to be outside the organization’s culture of redundancy that has served the organization well for decade.  A third-party vendor most likely would not share this cultural trait.

    How does your organization handle Bet Your Company procurement decisions?

    Pre order our new book

    Navigating the Data Minefields:

    Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making

    We are living in an era of data and software exponential growth.  A substantive flood hitting us every day.  Geek heaven!  But what if information technology is not your cup of tea and you may even have your kids help with your smart devices?  This may not be a problem at home; however, what if you job depends on Big Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI)?

    Available April 2025

    Ordering Information

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the recently published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be published by CRC Press in 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross-Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg and his book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • The Crisis/Challenge of AI in 2025

    The Crisis/Challenge of AI in 2025

    “Many processes are repeatable and only data inputs change.”

                                                                                                         — Scott Shemwell, 2023.

    Technology disruption has been with humankind since the first invention.  We get used to one model and suddenly, a new way supplants the old.  Much has been written about the innovation process, and it is not the focus of this Blog to regurgitate the obvious.

    However, Wikipedia states, “Beyond business and economics disruptive innovations can also be considered to disrupt complex systems, including economic and business-related aspects.  Through identifying and analyzing systems for possible points of intervention, one can then design changes focused on disruptive interventions.”  This is the broader focus of this piece.

    Human Redundancy?

    One if the ongoing concerns, “will AI replace humans?”  As of this writing, many do not believe it will, at least anytime soon.  Interestingly, according to Harvard professor Karim Lakhani, “Just as the internet has drastically lowered the cost of information transmission, AI will lower the cost of cognition.”  This is consistent with the traditional path of Information Technology innovation.

    Moreover, this concern is not new.  In her 1983 paper, Ironies of Automation, Lisanne Bainbridge posited that there are inherent problems with automating workflow, humans are still required for tasks that are not easily (if at all) automated.  Oversight of automation requires more training in new job skills, not less.  More recently, the former Chief Scientist of the US Air Force points out the “Original Ironies of Automation is highly relevant with regards to today’s new wave of AI-enhanced automation.  Near misses and incidents involving human automation operations often arise from a mismatch between the properties of the system as a whole and the characteristics of human information processing.”

    In our forthcoming book we address the need for Strong Oversight coupled with Standardization and Risk Tolerance to address the broader need for upskilling today.  According to McKinsey, “Any engineering talent rethink needs to begin with an understanding of how gen AI will affect the product development life cycle.”

    Paraphrasing Mark Twain, “The rumors of Human demise are greatly exaggerated.”  AI is here to stay and should be embraced with cautionary guardrails as it is still immature and subject to error.

    Human Factors

    One pundit refers to the ‘Human Edge‘ as the competitive Advantage we have over machines.  This pundit has long been an advocate for Human Factors when it comes to managing technology, especially emerging technology used for process or production management.  The risk profile otherwise is just to0 steep and high.  One only has to look at the recent travails of the once venerable firm, Boeing.

    2025 and Beyond

    Artificial Technology, its future derivative products and solutions not yet envisioned will continue.  Most likely at the breakneck speed or faster of today.  Remember when we used to think of the Internet growth in terms of Dog Years?  Insect Years may be the new metric.

    Many, including this writer as documented in our book, believe AI et al is just entering the explosive growth on the maturation curve.  We must live with it and the most successful will get ‘on board’ when the timing is right for them.

    Exciting times lie before us all and it is a great time to be alive, at least from a technology perspective.

    How are you, your family and work colleagues prepared for the future?

    Pre order our new book

    Navigating the Data Minefields:

    Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making

    We are living in an era of data and software exponential growth.  A substantive flood hitting us every day.  Geek heaven!  But what if information technology is not your cup of tea and you may even have your kids help with your smart devices?  This may not be a problem at home; however, what if you job depends on Big Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI)?

    Available April 2025

    Ordering Information

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the recently published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be published by CRC Press in 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross-Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg and his book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • DOGE’d

    DOGE’d

    The Day the Congress Stood Still

    On December 18, 2024, Elon Musk delivered on the social media site, 𝕏  the death knell of a 1500+ page so called Continuing Resolution that was to stave off a Federal Government shutdown.  Later it was replaced with a much shorter (100+ page) bill that passed largely intact.

    This Out-of-the-Gate action by the Non-Government Organization (NGO), DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) may foretell the next 18+ months of DOGE’s self-imposed life ending July 4, 2026.  This first Musk assessment revealed extensive and massive political pork earmarked spending.

    The Congress and all manner of hired bureaucrats may face increased public scrutiny, posted for all to see.  Who knows, the idea may expand to all levels of government and their hired hands.

    Creative Destruction

    Previously, we discussed this economic substitution model.  “The economist Joseph Schumpeter was the first to coin the term creative destruction–the destruction of old markets and those active in them through innovation, & inventing of new markets, this can be new technologies, methods, business models, services, or products.”  One can argue that the creative destruction cycle time is very short today.

    And perhaps getting even shorter!

    Gort or Grok?

    In the original (1951) movie, The Day the Earth Stood Still, the robot Gort has the ability to destroy the world.  It is prevented from doing so by the utterance (by a human) of the key words, “Klaatu barada nikto.”

    According to 𝕏, the Artificial Intelligence (AI) robot of today, Grok (formally defined as “to understand something”) “leverages the 𝕏 platform to understand what’s happening in the world in real time. We recently launched two additional features to enhance this experience even further: web search and citations.  Now Grok draws upon posts from 𝕏 and webpages from the broader internet to provide timely and accurate answers to your queries.  We also added citations, so you can easily dive deeper into a source to learn more or verify the information provided by Grok.”

    Fortunately, three simple words neutralized Gort, and the earth was saved.  Grok will not so easily be rendered impotent, unless the First Amendment is repealed.

    The government world has been (figurately) creatively destroyed and changed forever.  Moreover, in their world of consistent suboptimal performance, most have no idea what has already happened to their cherished long-standing bureaucratic processes.

    The Regulatory Public Comment period will never be the same.

    After DOGE

    It appears that Musk has put in place an AI solution that will live on after the formal closure of DOGE in 2026.  Grok and other emerging AI tools can continue to review and assess each and every piece of proposed legislation and other government edicts regardless of length and/or complexity.

    Like Hacking, those opposed to honesty will seek ways to thwart AI.  Those providing transparency solutions will need to stay one step ahead, just like law enforcement agencies that are required to enforce and uphold the law.  If accepted social behaviors norms are to prevail, transparency is demanded.

    Finally, we can “read the bill to find out what is in it.”  Prior to voting!

    This Accountability Sucks!

    Well, get over it!  One suspects entrenched vested interests will try to find ways around this revolution, but likely to no avail.  There is not only a new sheriff in town, even after he leaves, the new accountability will remain.

    And so much for the current media business model whereby either a single individual or small group amalgamates society’s daily activities and present the proletariat with their (often agenda driven/opinionated/biased) version of THE NEWS.

    How will you take advantage of the AI delivery of information?

    Pre order our new book

    Navigating the Data Minefields:

    Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making

    We are living in an era of data and software exponential growth.  A substantive flood hitting us every day.  Geek heaven!  But what if information technology is not your cup of tea and you may even have your kids help with your smart devices?  This may not be a problem at home; however, what if you job depends on Big Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI)?

    Available April 2025

    Ordering Information

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the recently published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be published by CRC Press in 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross-Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg and his book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • Birds of a Feather . . .

    Birds of a Feather . . .

    Eagles Soar, others flock.

    Post the US election, it seems that many on the losing side are circling the wagons and pointing to the ‘other guy’ to blame for a series of political sins.  Like fish in a school, the belief seems to be that the crowd provides an element of protection.  But is this belief borne out by observation?

    Experience suggests that the masses can be figuratively slaughtered while the lone leader prevails.

    Keep Doing What You’re Doing

    Paraphrasing the Brown/Einstein quote about insanity, ‘many are doubling down on past behaviors that have already cost success.’  Yet we humans keeping going back to the old playbook.  Partially, because we do not know any other options.  Shame on those without a well thought out strategy (with options) because as we know, ‘No plan survives initial contact.”  If your political party just lost a major nationwide election, why would the first post-election reaction be to do more of the same?  Not all are taking this path, but based on the public media it seems many are.

    We often refer to the concept of Groupthink, “A process through which the desire for consensus in groups can lead to poor decisions.  Rather than object to them and risk losing a sense of group solidarity, members may remain silent and lend their support,” when speaking about group dynamics.  Let me posit that this sociological model does not address the dynamics of the losing side in the recent Presidental election.

    The Abilene Paradox

    The “Abilene paradox refers to a situation wherein no member of a group decides to contest a decision taken by the group, believing it to be the consensus of everyone, when in reality, none of the group members agree with the decision.  However, none of them speak up for the fear of going against the wishes of others and end up regretting not speaking up in time.”

    To this pundit, the Abilene paradox more closely mirrors what may have been happening to the losing presidential candidate team than many other social and behavioral models.

    The following short video provides a good and concise presentation of this methodology and its origin.  Suggest readers take a few minutes to watch it.

    Early Signals from the Markets

    Note: This paragraph is the opinion of this writer and not the result of a formal data analysis or use of any methodology.  Also, it does make one wonder if the results of the US Presidental election were borne out exclusively for the reasons many pundits are putting currently putting forward.

    Thanksgiving is the informal kick off for the holidays or Christmas.  It seems that the atmosphere this year is more upbeat, even joyous than in the recent past.  For example, starting with the so-called Black Friday (the day after Thanksgiving), “E-commerce was the biggest winner over the weekend, showing the strongest growth year over year. U.S. online sales for the weekend were $41.1 billion, and online spending set new records on each of the five days, according to data from Adobe Analytics.”  Despite persistent inflation, these sales figures are extraordinarily strong.

    Moreover, advertisers seem more willing to use the phase, “Merry Christmas” more than in the recent past.

    Perhaps, the outcome of the election excited the population, but maybe there is an additional factor to be considered.

    Retail marketers must develop champaigns well in advance of the purchasing season.  Decisions regarding inventory volume and key ‘in’ styles and toys etc. must be made.  Moreover, festivities, parades and other market Pull Drivers as well Push (when appropriate) must be developed, funded and implemented.

    Bottom Line–these efforts should be seen as a major Leading Indicator.  This suggests that retailers and other consumer/hospitality sectors had supporting data many months ago, i.e., Big Data Analytics.

    Hypothesis, while very important, the personalities in the election may have played a lesser role than many believe.  The rising tide lifted the boat of the candidate(s) that could sense this underlying movement higher better than those that did not pick up on these vibrations.  This is an important leadership trait.

    This does not diminish the role of candidates and positions taken.  We simply make the case that there is a broader social and economic movement afoot.

    This writer only has access to public information and the opinions of others on this subject.  There may be other processes and behaviors taken by the presidential parties (not publicized) that can either add or detract from the arguments herein.  Additionally, some public behaviors such as campaign budgets and spending habits are known and likely contributed to the wining process as well as the losing operation.

    Final Thoughts

    In the coming years many books, research papers and other documents will be written about the 2024 US Presidental election.  Some will add real value to the discussion, yet sadly many will seek to justify positions taken.  Others will label scapegoats.

    Likely, history will show that this election is but a single yet major impact event of a very large social transformation whose final impact we cannot yet surmise. 

    To be successful in this new environment, individuals and the groups they represent only gain actionable and factual knowledge when strict and structured methodologies are use based on strong data foundations.  In this piece, the November 15, 2024, edition The Transformation of Our Spreadsheet Society and others (previously published and future editions), we attempt to participate in these early discussions.

    What have you learned from the outcomes of November 5, 2024?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the recently published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be published by CRC Press in 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg and his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • Never Ask a Tire Salesperson if You Need New Tires

    Never Ask a Tire Salesperson if You Need New Tires

    This Blog is dedicated to the memory of Eugene Lindsay, 1931-2015.  For many years, Gene was one of my sales representatives, confidant and a friend.  The title of this piece is attributed to him.

    The United States is still in the throes of the election aftermath and the President just pardoned his son; something he repeatedly stated he never would!

    The Not Good, The Bad and Absolutely Ugly!

    Form Information Can Take

    Even Biden’s hitherto staunchest supporters have turned on this so-called liar.  Never mind that he has a decades long visible track record of his verbal latitude with the facts, this seems to have broken the camel’s metaphoric back.  Moreover, this incident has seemingly opened Pandora’s Box regarding the loose running with the truth during the recent election cycle.

    In our forthcoming book (2025), Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making, we address at length the following types of non-factual information:

    • Misinformation–“It can be a collection of false, fabricated, misleading and/or taken out of context.  However, it does not meet the test of Intent to Deceive.”
    • Disinformation–“The deliberate publication of private information for personal or private interest, as well as the deliberate manipulation of genuine content.”
    • Malinformation–“The deliberate publication of private information for personal or private interest, as well as the deliberate manipulation of genuine content.”
    • Deep-Fake–“Technology that can seamlessly stitch anyone in the world into a video or photo they never actually participated in.”  We saw some of this during this last election.

    When Guardrails Fail

    “The fury which destroys an opponent’s character, would stop at nothing, if barriers were thrown down.  That which is true of the leaders in politics, is true of subordinates.  Political dishonesty in voters runs into general dishonesty, as the rotten speck taints the whole apple.  A community whose politics are conducted by a perpetual breach of honesty on both sides, will be tainted by immorality throughout.  Men will play the same game in their private affairs, which they have learned to play in public matters.  The guile, the crafty vigilance, the dishonest advantage, the cunning sharpness;—the tricks and traps and sly evasions; the equivocal promises, and unequivocal neglect of them, which characterize political action, will equally characterize private action.  The mind has no kitchen to do its dirty work in, while the parlor remains clean.  Dishonesty is an atmosphere; if it comes into one apartment, it penetrates into every one.  Whoever will lie in politics, will lie in traffic.  Whoever will slander in politics, will slander in personal squabbles.  A professor of religion who is a dishonest politician, is a dishonest Christian.  His creed is a perpetual index of his hypocrisy.”

    —Henry Ward Beecher

    “Politics was a necessarily dirty game of treachery and deceit.”

    – Dave Robinson

    The tools now available with more yet to come enable nefarious characters to attempt new heights in propaganda.  Joseph Goebbels would be so proud.

    Those of us who they seek to become consumers of valid and reliable information must develop better ‘radar’ detecting mischief in information and/or data.  This will be an ongoing war with significant challenges determining actual facts–truth seeking.  Moreover, misinformation and bias can come from automated solutions including Artificial Intelligence.

    The saying, “If it sounds too good to be truth, it probably is,” applies today as much as ever.  Our book drills down much deeper regarding signs of fabrication.  We must forever be on guard for purveyors of lies are ubiquitous.

    And don’t forget.  Everyone has an agenda–good or some not so virtuous.

    Enter the Tire Salesman

    Gene Lindsay was a lifelong sales representative.  Selling was his stock and trade.  As might be expected from someone with his outgoing personality and background, he had a number of quips about the sales business.  The satire of this Blog title has stuck with me over the years.

    The obvious response is NOT to trust a sales representative of tires if you don’t know if you need one or more of his/her products.  Gene knew that professionalism and helping prospects/client to make the right decision paid more with greater personal rewards in the long run than ‘stretching’ the truth for immediate gratification/commission.

    NO is the appropriate sales objection in response to a tire sale representative, if in fact you do not need tires at this time.  Ethics and truth shines through and yes, someday we all will need tires and hopefully we will turn to Gene’s proteges.

    The Truth Will Set You Free

    We all must attain and sustain the mantel of a knowledgeable (buyer) consumer of information.  Our personal and professional success depends on this skill.  Moreover, teach your children, colleagues, friends and relatives this skill as well.  They will thank you for it every day they are required to make decisions.

    Our marketing buzz word driven world has invented a number of descriptions for those who wish us ill, scammers, porch pirates, politicians who ‘walk back’ statements (give me a break), etc. These individuals are just liars and thieves and should be vilified.  We should not credit them with some panache because of their chosen path.

    While some politicians may not actually break the law, their states expose who they truly are.  As Beecher stated, “Men will play the same game in their private affairs, which they have learned to play in public matters.”  In other words, the philosophy, “We are what we eat,” is inviolate.

    How do you and your organization determine whether information presented is tainted and/or past it’s “sell by date?”

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the recently published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be published by CRC Press in 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg and his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • The Transformation of Our Spreadsheet Society

    The Transformation of Our Spreadsheet Society

    “The only rules are the ones dictated by the laws of physics.  Everything else is a recommendation.”  — Walter Isaacson/Elon Musk

    We live in a spreadsheet society.  Columns of Categories of People and Rows of Wants, Needs, and Desires.  This model is too simplistic.  What is needed, and Big Data can provide, is a more sophisticated approach.

    This spreadsheet approach was shown in the recent US elections to be detrimental to the party mainly depending on this view of society.  How many times did we hear pollsters opine that X percent of a certain population was voting for one candidate vs. the other?  The categories of people were divided along traditional lines.  This whole model was shattered on November 2, 2024, and likely some providers of data in this format may no longer be in business for the next cycle.

    However, this belief system is not limited to the political class.  We all can fall into this stereotype.

    For decades we have been taught that data categories can be captured under a Normal Distribution (Bell) Curve of a category and row of interest, i.e., the distribution of the height of a class of male senior high school students or SAT scores.  Another more relevant example, retailers’ pertinacious obsession with the 18–34-year-old group.

    These are fairly simple models, and in this Blogger’s opinion, this representation rarely works anymore, if it ever did.  For example, the resulting retail sector inventory overages as a result of dependencies on this gross data model are not an effective return on shareholder value.  Other recent missteps based on faulty interpretation of the customer/prospect base include the Bud Lite advertising fiasco and the Target marketing failure.

    It is ok to make marketing mistakes, that is going to happen.  The problem with these two (and other) campaigns is the analysis of risk, return, etc. was likely shallow or mathematically primitive.

    There are ways to appeal to new consumers without alienating a large existing base.  It’s all in the big numbers.

    There are several validated models of human behavior and we will discuss two of them herein, Maslow’s Hierarchy and the Relationships, Behaviors, Conditions model.  Some readers may prefer others, and they will most likely work within this construct as well.

    Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs

    This perspective on human needs and subsequent behaviors dates back to the 1940s.  As shown, it consists of five steps from survival to the ultimate Self Actualization.  Note that we adapt this model in two ways.  First, we view this as a growth process as opposed to five discrete steps.  Additionally, the bottom two lower ranges focus mostly on the physical issues we all face.  Fundamental survival and security both physically, mentally, emotionally and spiritually.  Once we have attained, sustained, and believe, we are ready to transition towards an end game, “the realization or fulfillment of one’s talents and potentialities, especially considered as a drive or need present in everyone.”

    Next, we will discuss how we can use this and the RBC solutions to realize specific and measurable value that changes this dynamic.

    The color gradient is meant to reflect that this journey is a process and often each field begins slowly before accelerating into the next range.

    Another perspective of each the Five Platforms consists of a number of smaller steps, which when assessed using Integral Calculus, generates a continuum.

    Relationships, Behaviors, and Conditions (RBC)

    The following is taken from our Cross-Cultural Online Game site:

    The RELATIONSHIPS, BEHAVIORS, and CONDITIONS (RBC) model was originally developed to address issues around cross cultural (international) negotiation processes.   As shown in the figure, Relationships are the focal point of this perspective, reflecting commonality of interest, balance of power and trust as well as intensity of expressed conflict.  Behaviors in this model is defined as a broad term including multi-dimensions and intentional as well as unintentional.  Finally, Conditions are defined as active and including circumstances, capabilities and skills of the parties, culture, and the environment.  Of course, Time is a variable in this model as well.

    Moreover, we have defined Behavioral Economics as “the decision-making model that incorporates societal, cultural, emotions and other human biases into the process as opposed to the classic rational economic actor.

    One key feature of the R B C Framework is its emphasis on interactive relationships while providing an environment for multiple levels of behavioral analysis.   This makes it a useful tool to better understand the new Big Data/AI processes currently unfolding.

    The following graphic is a derivative of our Cross-Cultural Interactions model.  It is a peer reviewed model and is a very good way to calibrate interactions.  Additional information is available on the above link.

    This author has long believed that we do not live in a linear or mathematically deterministic world.  A strong belief in stochastic, matrices drive much of my thinking.  This is reflected in the figure on the left.  The RBC model is the foundation for the five parties and their collective Behaviors.  The resulting Relationships range from one-on-one to small groups or in some cases a wide and varied constituency.

    Note that there is an Ecosystem, (something, such as a network of businesses, considered to resemble an ecological ecosystem especially because of its complex interdependent parts) associated with each entity other that the individuals’ who are the other four.

    This is a wide array of influences on any given individual.  Not easily measured, linearly!

    Scientific Method

    Most readers are familiar with how science has been brought into bolster the position of pundits/advocates of policy, especially related to Covid-19.  The word is tossed around casually, as if most who use it know what they are talking about.  Spoiler Alert–Most Do Not! This includes some with advanced technical or medical bona fides.

    Most think that by using the word ‘science’ this assessment process is out of their wheelhouse.  Previously, we argued that there is a layperson’s approach that works fine for most of our daily needs.  Details can be found on our Blog, They Blinded Me with Science.

    For space reasons, this (guidelines) model will not be repeated here but check it out, it is a short read.

    The late Nobel Laureate, Richard Feynman has a brief and layperson-oriented presentation on the Scientific Method.  He is an excellent teacher, and this clip is informative as well as entertaining.

     “If it disagrees with experiment, its wrong”—Richard Feynman

    Human Input Still Needed

    To be clear, pollsters and marketers will still need to ask questions that will also help structure the model, but the processes posited herein can change the weighting processes driving toward equilibrium and Pareto Optimality (Pareto efficiency implies that resources are allocated in the most economically efficient manner but does not imply equality or fairness) in the final analysis.  In other words, higher quality results.

    These numbers can also be seen as ‘first value’ in a simulation.  Another way to look at this is to the logic the Turing (Bombe) Machine of World War II.  Not setting a number as itself.

    Then AI can take the model to the next level and provide pollsters/marketers with real, modern solutions.  Finally, other uses will most likely be derivatives of this solution.

    The Data Management Problem

    We have identified a general problem as well as three valid and reliable theories.  This is only a nice discussion without relevance with Valid, Reliable, and Timely (VRT) data.  Data Management has been a problem as long as there has been data, stone, paper or electronic.  It has always been an issue.  “Herman Hollerith is given credit for adapting the punch cards used for weaving looms to act as the memory for a mechanical tabulating machine, in 1890.”  Much later (circa 1950s) digital database management schemas emerged.  Today, we are flooded by data of all types including telemetry and deliberately false data/information.

    How can this be effectively managed and how can an executive without a technology background survive much less thrive in such an environment?

    For decades, this author has been involved in almost all computer system development from the yellow punch tape of the 1960s until today.  There have been several constants over that period.

    One of the biggest chronic challenges has been database management; from the acquisition of data through its life cycle until achieve.  An outcome of poor data management has been decisions that have even led to the demise of firms, along with tens of thousands (if not more) of suboptimal decisions at the expense of shareholder value (bottom line/stock price).  What makes the current crop of Big Data/Artificial Intelligence advocates any smarter than those who came before?  Nothing!  Unless some things are changed.

    Our forthcoming book to be published by CRC Press in 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).  The following and other managerial action items are developed in detail.

    • How to determine the quality of the data and its relevance to the decision-making processes.
    • Current Challenges and Trends in Big Data and associated applications.
    • Proposed organization structure such as High Reliability Organization and an understanding of Human Factors to fully realize the full and measurable economic value from these technologies.
    • A full set of Risk Mitigation and a Governance model including Disaster Recovery and Cyber Security.
    • How these technologies are used in Operations, a proposed Management System as well as numerous Case Studies across a number of industries and types of problems.

    The challenge of managing this suite of emerging AI/Big Data is daunting and one that cannot be dodged or delegated.  How organizations respond can be the difference between success or the destruction of shareholder value.

    It’s The Data Stupid

    Our pollsters are collecting and analyzing data that are self-reported.

    • A questionnaire is developed which may or may not reflect bias.
    • These questions are posed to potential respondents (phone and otherwise) who may detect a voice tone, and/or the subject may intentionally lie or mislead.
    • Finally, who answers the phone these days?  This skews the data sample and perhaps badly.

    Data collected in this manner is not subject to rigor and most likely wrong or skewed.  Finally, data collected in this manner is not suitable for the new Big Data Analytic models.

    One Proposed Better Way

    There are probably several much better ways to address political and marketing problems.  While no data source is perfect, we posit the following way to use the US Census data.  We can treat it as a function of columns and rows yet apply sophistical data analysis algorithms.

    Categories

    As mentioned, we tend to clump or stereotype individuals into preconceived ‘buckets.’  Over time, these buckets have taken on an aura of, it’s the only way.  Basically, the construct that ‘we have always done it this way.’
     
    This is no longer a viable business or social model.  Our world is much too dynamic for the older static approach to targeting the likelihood of a specific demographic to perform in a preconceived prescriptive manner.
     
    One place to start looking is at the United States Census data.  This data set consists of 57 profiles, The United States and each State and Territory.  Each Profile is divided into several Sub-Categories, Populations and People, Income and Poverty, Education, Employment, Housing, Health, Business and Economy, Race and Ethnicity, and Nearby States.  Each Sub-Category is further detailed.
     
    We might even call the data in these Categories/Sub-Categories, Conditions from the RBC model.  Each Platform in Maslow’s Hierarchy can be considered a Category with infinite Sub-Categories.  Likewise, Conditions.

    Rows

    We have identified the following three variable model as representative of human Behaviors–Wants, Needs, and Desires.  We have previously reviewed some of this in our Blog, Want – Like – Need  in 2019.  These can also be mapped to Behaviors in both the RBC and Maslow models.
     
    Details and a short list of some variables follow.  These definitions can overlap, and readers will note that there is some duplication across all three classes below.  Researchers use different definitions for each class.  This does not detract from the fundamentals of Rows selected for analysis.  
    The point is to develop a list of behaviors that is indicative of the problem to be solved.

    Wants

    For purposes of this model, we define Want as something that an individual might seek as part of normal life, i.e., and ice cream cone.

    Needs

    Those fundamentals of life, especially as defined in Maslow’s Hierarchy, platforms one and two.

    Desires

    Different from Wants, Desires are perhaps beyond his/her reach.  Coveting a promotion and willing to back stab co-workers to get it rather than compete on merit.

    Sources of Wants, Needs, and Desires

    We have suggested that a starting point for Categories is the very large US Census database.  No such singular source exists for these behaviors and there is an overlap in definitions.  This list gives readers a starting point.  In no particular order, this non-comprehensive includes:

    The list goes on, but readers get the point.  A large row of behaviors will help develop a robust model.

    And The Answer Is

    While we know that the solution to the political pollster and/or marketing manager is not a definitive answer, we can do better than we are.  We know how to management data in this environment and we have models for assessing and making decisions based on results.  As we move from simple, small data set, linear models to robust Big Data Analysis, we need to consider a few additional action items.

    Scientific Method

    Do not forget to use this methodology to define and refine your problem statement.

    Model Limits

    • While we are using a significant number of independent and dependent variables, we are not trying to solve world hunger.  Therefore, we need to put limits on (Bound) the model.  This is an age-old problem we first addressed in 2015, Bounding the Boundless.
    • From a scientific perspective, “Across all science, modelling is our most powerful tool, as models let us focus on the few details that matter most, leaving many others aside.  Models also help reveal the typically far-from-intuitive consequences when multiple causal factors act in combination.”
    • Additionally, “Getting AI/ML/DL systems to work has been one of the biggest leaps in technology in recent years, but understanding how to control and optimize them as they adapt isn’t nearly as far along.  These systems are generally opaque if a problem develops in the field.  There is little or no visibility into how algorithms are utilized, or how weights that determine their behavior will change with a particular use case or interactions with other technology.”
    • Moreover, “the European Union this week (2021) issued guidelines for AI — specifically including ML and automated decision-making systems — limiting the ability of these systems to act autonomously, requiring ‘secure and reliable systems software,’ and requiring mechanisms for ensuring responsibility and accountability for AI systems and their outcomes.”

    Diminishing Returns

    Since we are not boiling the ocean, at some point continuing with the model will result reduced performance.  According to Economists, “The law of diminishing returns says that, if you keep increasing one factor in the production of goods (such as your workforce) while keeping all other factors the same, you’ll reach a point beyond which additional increases will result in a progressive decline in output.  In other words, there’s a point when adding more inputs will begin to hamper the production process.”

    “Data is just a way of codifying information. Any data gathered should be relevant to a problem, otherwise useless data clouds the results of a query.  If there are too many degrees of freedom, you are begging for a spurious correlation.”

    Readers may be familiar with, “The Pareto Principle, also known as the 80-20 rule, is a concept that many have adopted for their life and time management.  It is the idea that 20% of the effort, or input, leads to 80% of the results or output.  The point of this principle is to recognize that most things in life are not distributed evenly.”  This may be a satisfactory approach to this application.
     

    Need for a Data Scientist

    This approach may require the use of a professional data scientist to realize a valid and reliable outcome.  “A data scientist is an analytics professional who is responsible for collecting, analyzing and interpreting data to help drive decision-making in an organization.  The data scientist role combines elements of several traditional and technical jobs, including mathematician, scientist, statistician and computer programmer.  It involves the use of advanced analytics techniques, such as machine learning and predictive modeling, along with the application of scientific principles.  As part of data science initiatives, data scientists often must work with large amounts of data to develop and test hypotheses, make inferences and analyze things such as customer and market trends, financial risks, cybersecurity threats, stock trades, equipment maintenance needs and medical conditions.”

    More

    This is not a definitive list and is provided to give readers an understanding of what it will take to move forward with the Big Data Analysis model.  Appropriate research and problem definition may reveal additional or fewer requirements.

    Demise of Linear

    The Linear broadcast approach to selling or changing minds is not the relevant delivery vehicle for new micro-data analysis.  Directed notifications is better although practice this with care.  This last election cycle, I received a text, words to the effect, “can we count of your vote for X?”  I was very much against X and no reason was offered to help me change my mind.  Get with the program and don’t be so lazy developing your spiel or message.

    Elon Musk’s ‘Algorithm’

    This is an interesting approach to problem solving that can have relevance to the issue discussed herein.  Can we reduce complexity without losing data fidelity, “The accuracy, completeness, consistency, and timeliness of data.  In other words, it’s the degree to which data can be trusted to be accurate and reliable.”

    His Five Step Process:

    1. Question Every Requirement

    2. Delete Any Part or Process You Can

    3. Simplify and Optimize

    4. Accelerate Cycle Time

    5. Automate

    Readers may ask, how does this fit in this discussion?  We bring this to your attention because it may help identify and bound the problem to be solved.

    Also, perhaps of some value is his, “idiot index, which calculated how much more costly a finished product was than the cost of its basic materials.  If a product had a high idiot index, its cost could be reduced significantly by devising more efficient manufacturing techniques.”  A survey, analysis, etc. are all products and may benefit from this index model.

    Final Thoughts

    Most financial professionals will tell you that spreadsheets must foot (the sum of all rows must equal the sum of all columns).  Can societies or multiple societies foot their columns and rows?  Most likely not and if that is the case, data from this model is not valid or reliable.

    Most likely, this type of data will take the form of a Scatter Diagram (without correlation?) with some clumps or areas of intensity of a specific category or group of categories.

    This may not be an approach that many will take; however, it is clear that the original premise of this piece, that we live in a spreadsheet society is no longer appropriate.  “If you always do what you always did, you will always get what you always got.” ― Albert Einstein.  It will be interesting to see how future polling is conducted.

    Non-Linear Speed Ahead

    Sometimes pieces like this summarize a conclusion.  In the high-pressure environment, we are not concluding anything.  We are carving a way forward–A Growth Model of the Data Economy.

    As of this writing the incoming US administration appears to be moving at hyper speed across a broad front.  Moreover, AI in particular exploding.  Those interested in keeping up may want to to Subscribe | Generative’s AI Newsletter (not an endorsement but seems be a good daily source of information).  Mostly, just keeping up will not be enough, if top quartile success is the goal.

    It will be interesting to see the role the family of Artificial Intelligence (AI) software solutions play in this field going forward.

    Micro-targeting is certainly a place for Big Data to shine.  That said the problem to be solved and the confidence in the validity and reliability of the data must ascertained. 

    Society faces some real challenges with how we manage, analyze and decide using data.  This is but one example where old methods no longer produce valid and reliable results.  How will you and your organization go forward?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the recently published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be published by CRC Press in 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

    Copyright © 2024 The Rapid Response Institute LLC.  All rights reserved.

  • What Does ‘Systemic’ Actually Mean?

    What Does ‘Systemic’ Actually Mean?

    The word Systemic is tossed around quite loosely these days.  Especially when discussing social issues and politics.

    But what does it really mean when we say something is systemic by nature?  By one definition it is, “Of or relating to a system or a system and other relating to or affecting the entire body or an entire organism.”  Indeed a broad judgement.

    So when we say an entire nation is a systemically ‘blank blank,’ does that include the prognosticator that is making that statement?  Are those caught in the cross hairs of a so called systemic belief equally feel the same way about all other groups?  Not bloody likely as my Brit buddies say.

    How Do We Define a System?

    One definition of the word includes the world or universe.  Typically, we think of something smaller and ‘bounded.’  What do we mean by bounded?  Readers might be surprised that this term is a mathematical term describing a function, sequence or variation of a function.  In layman’s terms, systems have limits whether the human body, an organization, or society.

    Systems also have ecosystems and are not all organic in and of them selves and they interact with other systems.  For example, a commercial firm has suppliers and customers as well as local governments and even media outlets.

    Therefore, complexity is an inherent components and human constituents to ALL systems.  This stands by reason in our very robust and diverse world today.

    As such human behavior can take many different decision paths regarding any given issue.  We discuss these causal affects in our 2017 piece, Excellent Behaviors: Assessing Relationships in the Operational Excellence Ecosystem.

    It Is Not That Easy

    Defining the systemic nature of any system is very difficult.  NO system can be defined by one word.  Systems are complex sets of moving interdependent parts whose boundary is often ill defined.

    Decision makers must assure they are using valid and reliability data as they define the problem they are trying to solve.  Without such preparation, the answer put forth may be incorrect or meaningless.

    Next time a colleague or pundit is tossing around the word ‘systemic’ as them what they mean and when they say it means ALL, ask them how do they know that?

    In and of itself the term is meaningless.  Without a detailed definition of the system being discussed, good decisions are not possible and most likely will be poorly implemented with predictable results.

    So if you believe a system is a mess, how do you go about fixing?  Methodical or emotional?  One will work better that the other approach.

    What do you mean when you say something is systemic?

    If you need help with your complex system, see below and contact us.

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the just published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • How Effective at Multitasking are We?

    How Effective at Multitasking are We?

    According to no less than the Cleveland Clinic, ” Studies (regarding multitasking) show it makes us less efficient and more prone to errors.”

    Cleveland Clinic goes on to make the case:

    • When tasks are easy and routine such as, “like listening to music while walking, or folding laundry while watching TV,” these are generally not a problem.
    • However, when tasks are difficult and complex the situation changes dramatically and attempts at multitasking can be dangerous and even deadly.

    Many of us live in neighborhoods where drivers can be fined if they talk on a cell phone (even handsfree) in a school zone.  Another example is the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) Sterile Cockpit Rule which states, ” requiring pilots to refrain from non-essential activities during critical phases of flight, normally below 10,000 feet (3,048 meters).”

    Moreover, multitasking does not just have to be balancing a number of concurrent tasks, it can also  include managing tasks against some criteria, i.e. budget constraints.

    Safety, Safety, Safety

    In the blog series, as well as a host of publications include our 2014 book,  Implementing a Culture of Safety: A Roadmap to Performance-Based Compliance we have sought to drive the need for ALL organizations in the Critical Infrastructure sectors to live have a strong Safety Culture coupled with High Reliability operating performance.

    Meetings, Meetings, Meetings

    Similarly, many executives seem to prefer to spend their days going from meeting to meeting.  The belief is often that keeping busy is a proxy for progress.  In reality, it usually is not.

    Final Thoughts

    The referenced Cleveland Clinic article goes on to say, “The more we multitask, the less we actually accomplish, because we slowly lose our ability to focus enough to learn.”  In this multitasker, this sentence says it all.

    It is easy to watch TV while doing daily chores.  I do this all the time.  It is an entirely different matter to managing an offshore drilling process multitasking.  The systemic mistakes made in 2010 on the Deepwater Horizon are capture in detail in the book, Deepwater Horizon: A Systems Analysis of the Macondo Disaster.  Lessons learned are applicable to all in complex working environments.

    Does your organization favor multitaskers over those who focus?  If so, stakeholder value is likely degrading.

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the just published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • Burrattery

    Burrattery

    Burr!  Its winter in the northern hemisphere and many shiver from the cold.  The ‘Many’ include batteries.

    We have know for generations that cold weather negatively affects electrical batteries.  So, it should come as no surprise that Electric Vehicles (EVs) performance can suffer greatly when the temperatures are extremely cold.  This phenomenon is not limited to this power source, diesel engines face similar challenges at very low temperatures.

    Is It All Hype?

    The IT research firm, Gartner has developed a model describing the process from the inception of new technologies to their general acceptance.  The Gartner Hype Cycle is widely viewed as a reasonable model of this process and is applied to a wide variety of technological innovations.  As the title suggests, technology undergoes a process of innovation, disappointment and finally broad acceptance.  Moreover, this process can take many years with the demise of many startup companies that were perhaps even too early in the process.

    According to Gartner, “Data-enabled services, electrification and smart cabins are a part of many technologies in this Hype Cycle.  Most of these technologies continue to be in the Innovation Trigger and Peak of Inflated Expectations, showing they have a lot of potential to disrupt the automotive space, but yet have some way to go before reaching mainstream adoption.”

    Diffusion of Innovations

    Most readers are probably familiar with the so-called Technology Adoption model which is composed of five types of users/buyers:

    1. Innovators
    2. Early Adopters
    3. Early Majority
    4. Late Majority
    5. Laggards

    For these and more reasons (including high prices), it seems that EVs may have a way to go before wide acceptance with more robust battery technologies.  Finally, we previously challenged the perceived low Carbon Footprint of batteries and documented these technologies are not as green as portrayed.  Interested readers can take a look at our blog Crippling Green discussion regarding the economics of Climate Change.

    Where does your organization fall on either or both of these curves for battery technologies?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the just published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • Living on the Edge?

    Living on the Edge?

    The (credited to) Chinese saying, “May you live in interesting times” was once reframed by a colleague of mine.  He suggested, “May we live in less interesting times.”

    His statement was made years ago in yet another major economic downturn.  Today, we are living in the turmoil of economic inflation as well as civil unrest, political uproar and even active military conflicts in Europe and the Middle East as well as threats of more in the Asian theater.

    If you Google the term, “Tension at the Margin,” you will get almost nothing.  This scientist has long used this terminology do describe surface tension such as shown between water in a glass and the air as well as other intersections.

    So it is with life.  There is a level of good tension between a well-ordered environment and total chaos.  Successful societies live in that tension.  Unsuccessful ones either fall into Totalitarian Order or decent into Disastrous Chaos.

    Benjamin Franklin is credited with the prophetic statement when asked about the political structure of the emerging then new United States of America, “A Republic, If You Can Keep It.”

    Tension at the Margin is defined and well understood by Physics.  Human behavioralists seems to think that this is an abnormal situation.  It is NOT!

    The Chinese philosophy concept of Ying and Yang speaks to this issue–“opposite but interconnected, mutually perpetuating forces.”  Is this not the same as what Physicist believe about the natural world?

    I the choice is a Dictatorship, Warfare in the Streets or a Republic, I will take the Republic Tension at the Margin.

    There are almost 9 billion people in the world and best I can tell none of think exactly the same.  These differences should be celebrated and capitalized on.  All other positions are economically and socially disadvantaged.

    What is your organization doing to capitalize on this Positive and Natural Tension?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the just published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our recent blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • Remotely Gone

    Remotely Gone

    Remote Working was once heralded as the ‘New Normal,’ many employers are now less enamored with this business model.

    Having worked remotely in one way or another since the early 1980s, this pundit had some reservations when the tidal wave of glee over the opportunity to stay home and work in your robe or even your underwear emerged.  We first addressed this issue in March 2020 when the idea was newborn.

    Per the linked blog, working from home requires discipline as well as treating the new office as a professional situation.  Unfortunately, not all have that in their DNA.

    Productivity?

    With almost 50 years of remote working sometimes as a result of international travel in an era before connectivity, I have personally seen the ups and downs of work from a hotel room, a pay telephone, the laptop and mobile devices.  It is sometimes challenging to to keep focus.  There can also be a degradation of organizational culture

    The current management paradigm is named Hybrid working.  Firms are demanding at least some time to be spent in the office face-to-face.  According to one source in September 2023 only 14% of positions were remote compared to 20% in February.  Others have already demanded full time at the office as a condition of employment.

    Final Thoughts

    The ebb and flow of management theory is as old as humankind.  Sometimes, however human behavior is not taken into consideration by some prognosticators.  We are social animals and need human contact not just to thrive but to survive.  The water cooler is making a comeback.

    How will your organization retain its culture and assure productively in this new era?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the just published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our recent blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • Bogus

    Bogus

    According to Cambridge Dictionary the title term is defined as, Not real, or existing only in order to deceive people.”

    We live in a world when lies are tossed around with impunity.  Politician lie, school boards withhold from parents and the news is decried as fake by both sides of the political isle.  How does one sort fact from fiction and knowledgeable option from uninformed or deliberately disinformed BS?

    Passing The Smell Test

    This is the ‘Gut Check’ feeling–does it make sense?  Usually, our instincts or first impressions will have some credence.  Not that further investigation is not required but humans and other animals such as dogs can tell the ‘lay of the land,’ almost without thinking.

    Doubting these feelings can often lead to a less than optimum result.  So, Trust Your Gut is not a bad thing.

    At one point in the Covid-19 saga, one government employee suggested that if one mask made sense, multiple masks would make better sense.  Widely ridiculed, this nonsense faded quickly.  This followed after the celebrity photographed wearing a knitted mask.

    Lies, Damn Lies & Statistics

    We have been told all manner of things regarding Covid-19.  First, many would get it with few if and symptoms.  Later, it was defined as the modern day scourge–another plague.  We were told the Science was changing.  Really?

    Massive daily numbers of ill and dead statistics flooded our media.  Armageddon was here.  Then a funny thing happened on the way to destruction.  We took off our masks and most of us did not die.

    Let us not forget the Scientific consensus regarding Climate Change.  NO dissenting views are tolerated.

    The Scientific Method, long heralded as the gold standard in research and interpreting data is often completely blown off when it gets in the way of an agenda or the often stated ‘narrative.’

    What’s A Person To Do?

    Social media and the 24/7 news cycle can be overwhelming.  Yet that need not be the case.

    We have always had to hold competing and conflicting views in our head.  Nothing has changed.  We just have a plethora of so called facts to assess.

    We do not need fancy computers or AI to determine what makes sense and what is just idiotic.  Right or Left, we must make good life decisions and walk away from the Scams and Lies perpetrated on us every day.

    This pundit is rich beyond his wildest dreams.  The recipient of millions for dead relatives I did not know I had, brought to my attention by African Princes.  More recently, contacted by young women who offer me a massive business line of credit.  Lets not forget the business opportunities that require not investments of money or time but will handsomely reward me.  If only I would provide them my banking information so they know where to send the funds.

    I especially like the one where if I click on a link, a so-called vendor I have never heard authorizes Accounts Payable, or the Voice Mail posted to my Outlook. Give me a break!

    Yea, right!  All of this does not pass my Smell Test.  In fact, it all stinks, so trust your (smart) Gut.  If it is too good to be true, it probably isn’t!!

    How are you protecting yourself and your business from online thieves?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor for an in press book (to be released in Spring 2023) titled, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give us a shout.

  • It’s The Holiday Season–Maybe?

    It’s The Holiday Season–Maybe?

    At least in the United States we will soon be kicking off the Holiday Season with all the craziness it brings.

    Starting with the US Thanksgiving, followed by Black Friday (often practiced the entire month of November) many will prepare for Santa Claus then on into the New Year’s celebration.  Many religions have holy days or periods at this time of year as well,

    This 45 days or so of consumer ‘over buying’ is a bellwether for retail economic health and as well as the overall economy.  Soon the media will be counting the daily cash registers.  Economists and other pundits will will tell us all that the state of the economy depends on the success of the gift giving season.

    A Difficult Economy

    We all know the challenges most families are facing.  Inflation, high gasoline prices, supply chain shortages, etc.  We have documented some of these issues in earlier editions of this blog.  We covered such areas as:

    As of this writing, the Tech Giants are laying off thousands along with hiring freezes.  Major retailers appear not to be hiring as much seasonal help as expected.

    This suggests the major economic market may not be as robust as hoped.

    Soft or Hard?

    Economists and others talk about a Hard or Soft Landing when it comes to the down side of economic cycles.  Some believe the markets have already priced Federal Reserve (the Fed) micro policies into the price points.  For example, the shift from “Zero Interest Rate Program and Quantitative Easing to raising rates and Quantitative Tightening.”  Others suggest that not all factors are yet priced into financial markets.

    Over simplified: A Hard Landing results in a Recession.  A Soft Landing avoids a Recession.

    As of this writing opinions appear to be split with some believing the the Soft scenario and other convinced we are in for a very Hard recession in 2023.

    Going Forward

    Retail numbers this holiday season will be a significant signal for the 2023 economy.  This pundit with over five decades as an economic participant believes a Hard Landing is more Likely than a Soft one.  By December 26, 2022 we will  have a better idea of the first two quarters the next calendar year.

    What are you doing to assure that your family and your organization have the agility to weather the possible coming economic storms?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.

    There is a vast body of work regarding Hard v Soft economic Landings.  A good starting source for those interested in addition information is Investopedia.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more insight regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our recent blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give us a shout.

  • Hierarchy of Team Needs in Challenging Times

    Hierarchy of Team Needs in Challenging Times

    First it was Covid-19 and now a Recession?  Is a Global Military Conflict on the Horizon as well?

     

    Social, economic and personal pressures continue to mount.  There is already evidence of Reductions in Force, (RIF) aka layoffs are underway or planned.  With consumers stretched to the max, higher interest rates, equity markets in retreat and a struggling real estate environment, one wonders what the holiday season will bring.

    Cross Cultural (Diverse) Teams

    Ronald Reagan is credited with saying, “Recession is when your neighbor loses his job. Depression is when you lose yours.”  Would that it would be that simple.

    As we have addressed in the series on several occasions organizational teams consists of different types of people with diverse background and perspectives on life.  More importantly team members can be at different levels of maturity (both personally and organizationally).  We will address this in more detail.

    Maslow’s Hierarchy

    Many are familiar with Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs.  While a simple physiological (group level) safety model and as my colleague Rob Jones discusses in his new book, A Hole In Science–Grammar of The Sociological Problem.  He takes a very sophisticated and well thought out approach to addressing this group dynamic problem.  For our purposes in the blog, his in-depth analysis is really for professionals and not the casual reader.  However, for those interested, I highly recommend this newly released publication.

    Released in the early 1940s, the hierarchy consists of these five levels of needs that humans progressively move through (these levels were take directly from the aforementioned linked article and should be treated as direct quotations):

    1. Physiological–Air, water, food, sleep, health, clothes, and shelter, etc.
    2. Safety–Include personal and emotional security (e.g., safety from abuse), financial security, and wellbeing.
    3. Belongingness and Love–Family connections, friendship, and intimacy.
    4. Esteem–According to Maslow, there are two subtypes of esteem.  The first is esteem reflected in others’ perceptions of us.  That is, esteem in the form of prestige, status, recognition, attention, appreciation, or admiration.  The second form of esteem is rooted in a desire for confidence, strength, independence, and the ability to achieve.
    5. Self-Actualization–Examples include the acquisition of a romantic partner, parenting, the utilization and development of one’s talents and abilities, and goal pursuit 

    Maslow and others continued to advance the model, but readers can get the gist of it from these definitions.  Moreover, the following short (2.17 min) video covers this model very effectively.

    We can look at Maslow through the lens of a Maturity Model.  For example, certain Teams and/or Individuals might be higher up the hierarchy than others.

    This may change team interactions.  Usually, such models reflect the maturity of the lowest member.

    With the stress of an economic setback, some members may move from of a position of feeling good to one of Safety if jobs or personal cash flow are threatened.

    Guidelines for Going Forward

    In one sense,, teams composed of individuals in different phases of the Hierarchy are no different than other diverse teams.  Teambuilding techniques such as found in our Cross Cultural Serious Games are good tools to teach team member about the state of mind of their team members and/or competitors.

    We have been through tough times before and we will all get through this one as well.  Be sure to learn from history so as not to repeat it.

    How are you helping your family and organization deal with challenging times?

    Note: The definition of a recession is a political football and this is a blog about organizational excellence and not politics.  Investopedia has a good and generally accepted definition of the term (recession) and it is provided herein for completeness.  Readers can decide for themselves as to  its relevance to their individual situation.

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more insight regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our recent blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give us a shout.

  • Crippling Green

    Crippling Green

    “Yes, hope is a strange thing.  Peace at last.  But at what price?”
    — Khaled Hosseini

    Great Societies have been lost in the past–a number of times.  There is no reason to believe our current crop is immune!

    Ariel Durant, the co-author of the 11 volume tome, The Story of Civilization is credited with, “A great civilization is not conquered from without until it has destroyed itself from within.”

    The United States is currently engaged in a great climate civil war.  One one side there are those who advocate for expensive and expansive economic and social investment in so-called Climate Change.  Climate Change Skeptics, often derided by the aforementioned group as Climate Deniers are those who question the Scientific Consensus and the cost and return on the investment to become Net Carbon Zero.  By the way, science is never settled.

    From the observer’s perspective, there is a long term effort to shut down debate, as is typical in today’s society largely by name calling, shaming and even threats.  Dissenters seemingly risked their professional reputation, loss of grants, even safety, and more.

    And Now Questions

    Funny thing happened on the road to Net Zero.  Questions began to be raised about the efficacy of renewables, and their Total Lifecycle Cost.  Moreover, the heavy metal cost of ecological damages of mining were raised and are now under scrutiny.

    The Let Them Eat Cake Strategy

    Transitions, especially Transformations are painful.  Based on Joseph Schumpeter’s Creative Destruction, “The incessant product and process innovation mechanism by which new production units replace outdated ones,” transformation is a linchpin of Capitalism.  Now, some believe socialism is the future, history does not prove their point.  Are any to turn in the Smart Phones for the old black dial model tethered to a wall?

    However, when this natural process is driven by the ‘heavy hand’ of non-economic actors, perturbations in the process can cause warps in the economic space time continuum.  Some examples of overreach include:

    Agriculture

    Some argue that, “Agriculture accounts for 16 to 27% of human-caused climate-warming emissions.”  Nitrous oxide (N2O) is the named culprit (according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change this chemical accounts for 6% of greenhouse emissions).

    It is reported that in the Netherlands agricultural sector system manure is high in nitrous oxide.  Emotions are apparently running high between Dutch farmers who see a targeted 30% reduction in livestock heads and the government whose position seems to be this is an “unavoidable transition.”  Jobs are at risk!

    Gasoline

    It seems the President of the United States is celebrating high gasoline prices as part of “an incredible transition” to move away from fossil fuels.  As with the Dutch case, this seems to place the biggest burden on the so-called ‘little guy.”

    Truckers

    We all remember the trucker protests in Canada and the United States in early 2022, mostly regarding Covid-19 restrictions.  Around the world there was a strong level of solidarity.

    This sector is also not immune to Climate Change driven initiatives.  From one source there are two key considerations:

      • The proposed 2027 new emissions regulations for diesel-powered trucks, and
      • The 2030 goals from some states and their aggressive objectives for zero-emissions vehicle sales.

    One might project similar (Covid-19 driven) responses to these new mandates.  This might be another major negative impact to supply chains for all sectors.

    Electric Vehicles

    The US Secretary of Transportation has suggested that everyone would benefit from an EV.  At the time of his statement (October 2021), the average cost of an EV was $55,676 while a compact car was $25,240 and and SUV was $34,122.

    By this pundits calculation (at $4 a gallon), break even for the SUV is 5,389 gallons of gasoline at 20 miles per gallon.  As mathematicians will say, it follows that break even is almost 108,000 miles of driving.  Years of driving for most of us and what shape will the battery be in at that point.  While some argue the maintenance costs are less for EV, most consumers are driven by out-of-pocket buying decisions.  Then there the disposal costs of EVs at end of life (see Other Blogs below for details).

    Fracing

    Perhaps one of the more emotional fossil fuel development process is Fracing (not Fracking by the way).  Some believe the damage to the environment from fracing is the greatest of any human endeavors.

    On the other hand, the value from fracing includes:

      • The shale revolution mad the United States self-sufficient in oil and gas for the first time since 1947
      • In 2022, the US is the largest exporter of LNG (liquified natural gas)

    Given the current geopolitical situation, easy access to low-cost traditional energy sources is at least near time high value.

    There are many other areas of controversy regarding this issue.  More than likely both sides will continue to make their points and emotions will continue to play a major role.  There will be Winners and Losers over the next few years as this debate plays out.  Honest scientific debate can mitigate the emotional and political agenda at play.

    Are Green Initiatives Making the Problem Worse?

    Per the NBC piece aired on September 20, 2022, illegal gold mining in Peru not only releases mercury into the ecosystem but adds to environmental carbon when the soil is disturbed.  This makes this pundit wonder if all the heavy metal strip mining to fuel EVs will do the same in addition to its other environmental problems (see Heavy Metal Rocks below)?

    Moreover, this issue about strip mining and carbon release has been known for a long time.  In 1977 the peer reviewed scholarly article, Soil fungal populations and soil respiration in habitats variously influenced by coal strip-mining addressed this issue.

    Likewise, NBC reported on illegal gold mining in Peru in 2019.   Point being, this information is not new nor is The Science newly discovered.

    Unintended Consequences run amok?  Are lithium batteries destroying the planet?

    And the Winner Is?

    No one!  If we do nothing, we are told the oceans will rise and temperatures will become unbearable causing all manner of weather driven catastrophes as well as increased intensity and frequency of forest fires.  On the other hand, spending the multiple trillions of dollar will enrich the (very) few at the cost of economic collapse for the many.

    Lose–Lose Deal.  Either way our world ends or our economies end.  Is there a difference?

    According to Merriam-Webster, “A pyrrhic victory is a victory that comes at a great cost, perhaps making the ordeal to win not worth it.  It relates to Pyrrhus, a king of Epirus who defeated the Romans in 279 BCE but lost many of his troops.”

    Decisions–Decisions

    So Global Society is faced with two choices.  The earth is in physical peril unless we spend malevolent amounts of money as fast as possible.  Or, as a result of economic destruction on a global scale if this level of spending adds little if any value.  Then we will all live in poverty or worse.  Either way, Human Extinction is one end game proclaimed by many.  The very definition of a Dilemma.

    According to Merriam Webster, one definition of Hobson’s Choice is, “The necessity of accepting one of two or more equally objectionable alternatives.”  Not a great place to find oneself.

    The ancient Romans apparently made poor decisions as a mature and wealthy society.  It cost them dearly.  Are we now?

    How are You and Your Organization Assessing the Risk of Investing in Climate Change (Conventional Wisdom) Scenarios or Alternative Approaches?

    Other Recent Relevant Blogs

    These blogs in this series address this particular issue in greater detailed.  Together, they form a more complete picture of the author’s position on relevant components discussed here as well aligned subjects.  In reverse chronological order:

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.

    Disclaimer, the author has no personal or business relationship with Bjorn Lomborg or his publications other than reading and commenting on his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Second Disclaimer, Ali Daneshy was interviewed for the referenced Forbes article on Fracing.  This author knows Mr. Daneshy and worked with him for many years at Halliburton.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give us a shout.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

  • What We’ve Got Here is Failure to Communicate!!

    What We’ve Got Here is Failure to Communicate!!

    “The single biggest problem in communication is the illusion that it has taken place.”

    George Bernard Shaw

    The 1967 movie Cool Hand Luke, popularized the term, “What we’ve got here is failure to communicate.”  The American Film Institute lists this statement as number 11 out of the top 100 movie quotes.  The basis of this exchange is the prisoner in a Florida prison camp, refusing a guard’s continual demands.

    Clash of Titans

    In our 1994 presentation, Organizational Conflict and Dispute Resolution we positioned Diversity as a Function of Culture.  Another way to look at this is a function of ‘tension at the margin.’  We defined this term as, “Stress between competing bodies—the engine of power.”  The idiom was derived from the Pressure Differential in powerful weather events such as hurricanes.  The blog went on state, “Humans constantly deal with this phenomenon and sometimes the stress caused by this dichotomy can seem to be overwhelming.  Sometimes, it seems this powerful internal engine races without a governor.”  Sometimes, cultural clashes seem to have these same titanic properties.

    Cultural Governance

    This pundit has a somewhat different opinion on ESG than typically featured in the media.  This framework is only a set of standards that responsible firms have been using for years.  We addressed this issue in June 2005 in the piece, The Corporate Bar is Raised! which is a chapter in our 2011 book, Essays on Business and Information II: Maximizing Organizational Performance.

    The final paragraph in the piece states, “The linkage between robust embracement of strong governance and shareholder rights coupled with transparency and dispatch when things go badly will provide strong positive sustainability.  The corporate bar is raised, but isn’t this where it should have been all along?”  How is this any different than current ESG models?

    Governance sets a framework as well as an ethical methodology for advancing competing positions.  In one sense collaboration is the ultimate goal as the intent of the whole is to maximize success.  Governance models that are not aligned with that goal are sub-optimal.

    R B C

    There is a great deal of discussion about Energy Transformation today.  It is not only a political football but many consulting and technology company are pushing their products and solutions.  No doubt some of dubious value.  All parties have an agenda!

    The word transformation suggests that the current Condition or environment demands changes in Behavior.  The result of these changes drives new Relationships (RBC) among economic actors.

    It is one thing to move from wood and dung as fuel to the coal that powered steamships and now other fossil fuels that power almost everything as well as the feedstocks for almost everything the modern world uses and social transformations.  There are major differences between the two Differential Pressures.

    Energy Transformation is heavily dependent on hard infrastructure.  The ability to economically replace gas stations with plug in sites, the time it takes to ‘refuel’ a mobile machine, and so forth and so one.  This is a decades long process and not something that can be done on a simplistic political timeline.

    Social Transformation is not easy either.  However, the process mostly requires changing collective mindfulness.  This process can unfold rather quickly.

    For example, events of Pearl Harbor, 9/11 as well as the adoption of ‘Smart phones,’ political party positions, weather events, etc. can transform thoughts in weeks, months and even days.  In this sense it is easier to accomplish.

    Fin

    Change happens when all parties feel like there is something in it for them.  Where exogenous or endogenous, new Conditions can drive better Behaviors and thus new Relationships.  However, individuals need to know the value they will derive.  A failure to communicate need not be fait accompli.

    Do You Know if You Are Communicating with Your Friends, Colleagues and Others?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more information regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give us a shout.

  • Sun Sets in the West: Science or Commentary?

    Sun Sets in the West: Science or Commentary?

    One newscaster recently used the metaphor of the sun setting in the west as settled science so contrary views were not newsworthy.  His argument–Fairness is Over Rated!  What?  One wonders whether this is true for those who believe the world is round or for those in the Flat Earth Society?

    Yet most political commentary and views are not so apparent.  Politicians and pundits constantly refer to ‘so-called’ settled science only to have new information surface.  Moreover, we know how to test theories using the Scientific Method.  Sadly, outside of formal academic style research this tool does not appear to be in vogue these days.

    Sun Set

    We learn the truism that the sun rises in the east in the morning and sets in the west (slightly seasonally adjusted).  In fact, this calendar and timing have been known for several millennia.  This process is measurable and repeatable.  This phenomenon is supported by empirical data taken from experimentation and observation.  The data is valid (accurate) and reliable (repeatable).  Therefore, it follows that the knowledge of the sun setting in the west is based on science.

    In My Opinion . . .

    The 24/7 news cycle bombards us all with “Breaking News,” often several days after its occurrence.  In their rush to get the ‘scoop‘ facts are not available at the time, overlooked or deliberately mangled or omitted.  We are told that such and such is settled fact.  And then it isn’t!

    When one puts forth a position that while may be based on the certainty of one’s perspective on a matter, it often does not meet the test of the Scientific Method.  By definition, this type of statement is a viewpoint or a sentiment.  However, it can take on the mantle of science but is really Pseudo-Science as the hypothesis cannot be proved false.

    One’s perspective or cognitive bias on a given subject can lead to the development of an organizational, policy, political or social agenda designed to sway thinking and thus support the development and implementation of initiatives designed to operationalize said ideas.  Proponents often couch their position as “The Science.”

    Contemporary Decisions

    Our world is awash with significant economic and social challenges.  Whether ESG, Covid-19, Climate Change or Inflation everyone has an opinion with data and/or studies to support their positions.

    Consumers/Policy Makers/Decision Makers of these information will have to assess their value.   How valid and reliable are the positions taken and what is the uncertainty and risk associated with their implementation?

    The basis of all decisions include a level of incomplete or incorrect data.  This phenomenon is where the military phase, “No plan survives first contact with the enemy” comes from.

    So, it is with the confrontations of these four global issues.  A robust discussion of the various points-of-view and their basis is necessary.  Why is this not happening?

    When statements that the ‘consensus’ of vast majority of experts/scientists is blah blah blah are made, this should be a major red flag.  The statement that the ‘sun sets in the west’ has a significant body of knowledge behind it.  There is a level of uncertainty with most other prognostications.

    Louis Pasteur is credited with the statement, “Chance favors the prepared mind.”  This is just as true today as when he was developing vaccines for the anthrax and rabies scourges of his day.

    The best decisions are made even when controversial such as with Pasteur’s vaccines.  Eisenhower’s decision about D-day had similar attributes of uncertainty and risk.

    The United States, indeed the world has embarked on a multi-trillion dollar effort to solve the so-called existential threat of global warming.  Politically charged, one wonders if any of the proponents and doomsayers are basing their positions on actual science.

    How DARE THEY push false agendas that cost so much and will destroy economies.  How DARE THEY!!

    Are your organization’s decisions based on science or just someone’s opinion?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more information regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give us a shout.

  • Reports of Fossil Fuels Demise Premature? – Renewables Remain Marginalized?

    Reports of Fossil Fuels Demise Premature? – Renewables Remain Marginalized?

    Who would have thought that in the summer with temperatures over 100 degrees Fahrenheit the wind would stop blowing.

    According to NOAA, “The main cause of wind is a little surprising.  It’s actually temperature.  More specifically, it’s differences in temperature between different areas.”  With a major Atmospheric High Pressure parked over a large geographic area, no wonder the wind does not blow.

    Texas Heat

    July 11, 2022 was a true scorcher across the state of Texas.  According to the Dallas Morning News, “Wind speeds have fallen to extremely low levels, and that means the state’s fleet of turbines is at just 8% of their potential output.”  This resulted in this and other Texans receiving an email from the local electricity provider asking for help cut back on power use.

    Texas is major producer of wind energy with over 150 wind farms–total capability of 30,000 MW (2020).  This amounts to approximately, 33% of the state’s power–more electricity produced than any other state.  So in the midst of a major heat wave, less than 25% of the state’s (potential) power generation was effectively available.

    This Level of Unreliability is Unacceptable.

    Previously, we addressed this issue after the Texas Freeze of 2021.  It does not seem like this problem is going away.  Guessing, that like the freeze, lack of energy availability will continue to be mitigated by fossil fuel power production!

    German Cold

    According to the University of Illinois Chicago, “Patients who died because of cold temperatures were responsible for 94% of temperature-related deaths.”

    It gets cold in Germany in the winter.   While the temperature range may vary slightly, Germans need heat every winter.  Despite climate (warming) change, this is not likely to change this coming season.

    The news has reported that Germany has depended on Russian gas for some time.  With the hostilities in Ukraine, that energy source is in jeopardy.  This has caused the country to look to other, reliable sources.  Coal.  Framed as “painful but necessary,” the country had to restart coal based power production.

    Perhaps not desirable for some politicians and prognosticators, Germany has no choice.  Many will be happy with this decision on Christmas Eve.  Near term survival vs. long-term possibilities.

    Clean Fossil

    One day in the 1980s this writer left his hotel in Los Angeles for a morning run.  A few minutes later, I stopped and returned to my room.  The air was so thick with pollution I felt my heath would be better served by doing nothing as opposed to running outside.

    Flash forward to November 1987 when this writer was in Beijing, China for almost a month.  The air was so extreme that frankly my nose contained coal particles simply by breathing.  Moreover, Houston, Texas at the time had similar issues whereby the air actually ‘smelled’ in the industrial area.

    Today, the United States does not have these issues at least at this level (not true with other nations).  The US has ‘cleaned’ its act up so to speak.  Its rivers no longer catch on fire, as they once did.  All of this is the result of better stewardship of carbon based fuels.

    According to the US National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), “Coal-fired electricity generation is cleaner than ever.  NETL’s research shows that a new coal plant with pollution controls reduces nitrogen oxides by 83 percent, sulfur dioxide by 98 percent, and particulate matter by 99.8 percent compared to plants without controls.”

    It is possible to responsibly use carbon effectively, efficiently and cleanly.  This is missed by both sides of the climate debate.

    Demise–NOT!

    The humorist Mark Twain is credited with saying, “The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.”  One can make the same case about fossil fuels.

    According to one source, today there are 1.446 billion motor vehicles on the planet.  Reportedly, just under 284 million are registered in the United States.  Our ‘share’ represents less than 20 % of the global fossil fueled propelled transportation.  Note that this does not include aerospace and the multitude of critical uses of carbon based feedstocks.

    According to the US Energy Information Administration, only 12% of energy was provided by renewables in 2021.  Fossil fuels in aggregate provided 79% of the basket of energy sources.  According to another credible data provider, “The share of wind and solar is rising constantly (+1 point in 2021), reaching 10.7% of the global power mix.”

    This slow growth is over approximately 20 years.

    When the wind does not blow, sun does not shine or solar panels are covered with snow, power comes from dependable fossil fuels.  Moreover, according to experts, none of this linear climate change political response will most likely make a difference anyway.

    Energy Transformation is an uninvestable amount with uncertain returns.  In other words, high and undocumented risk.  So what are we doing?

    How is Your Organization Managing the Risk associated with the Energy Transformation?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more information regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give us a shout.

  • Why Corporate Initiatives Fail

    Why Corporate Initiatives Fail

    According to the Cambridge Dictionary, one definition of initiative is. “A new plan or action to improve something or solve a problem.”  In corporate parlance this often translates into yet another short-term and often politically correct effort to demonstrate forward motion/social citizenship.  Often forgotten faster than the evening news cycle as new searches for performance take their place.

    Organizations of all types, public, private, profit and nonprofit etc. tend to announce new initiatives with great fanfare and pronouncements about ‘transforming our culture.’  So why do they continuously fall short of expectations?

    According to a Forbes Survey released just before the pandemic, “When participants in our survey were asked to create a list of reasons for (change programs) failure, ‘insufficient budget’ was cited by 23% and ‘insufficient time’ by only 17%.  Instead, participants ranked poor communication (62%), insufficient leadership and support (54%), organizational politics (50%), lack of understanding of the purpose of the change (50%), lack of user buy-in (42%) and lack of collaboration (40%) as the most critical issues.”

    In aggregate, the article suggests a total failure rate of70%.  This percentage level was first put forth in the early 1990s and is accepted by many as still correct today.  While empirical evidence is sketchy, none-the-less, the perception of failure remains high.

    This tracks with other project failure statistics this author has seen over the years.  Yet, all of these failure attributes are human and therefore, manageable and correctable.

    Today’s Buzz

    The economy is always front and center.  More so today given Inflation and Supply Chain problems.

    In this blogger’s opinion and in order of priority other key issues include Diversity, Inclusion and Equity (DEI), Climate Change and Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG).  While different organizations may face other challenges, these Four tend to dominate the news.

    Often issues overlap or compound, thus exponentially amplifying the impact on society.  For example, the electric vehicle (EV) is touted as a lynchpin to ‘fixing’ the Climate Change issue.  However, supply chain issues currently limit battery production and one can surmise this is a long-term problem and not simply current shortages or delays.  If this is correct, meeting desired climate metrics is problematic.

    Diversity, Equity and Inclusion

    Perhaps the most emotional of the Big Four, DEI seeks to level the so-called playing field for all regardless of ethnicity, gender or behavioral preferences.  Almost all organizations have a DEI Initiative underway.  Yet, they seem to be stalling much to the frustration of advocates.

    According to one source, “The DEI industry is dominated by what scholars call ‘personnel managers,’ employees in human resources.”  This is also the observation of this pundit as well.

    LinkedIn profiles include, Chief Diversity Officers, any number of DEI consultants and others carrying similar titles as well as commercial organizations offering DEI products and solutions.  Much like the plethora of Safety Culture ‘experts’ and tools that emerged after Deepwater Horizon offshore drilling rig disaster in 2010.

    From a recent Korn Ferry article, “Experts say companies must treat DE&I as they would any other business issue and use data analytics to understand why things aren’t working.”  This author interprets this to mean that DEI must be incorporated into ‘the way we do business‘ or part of the organization’s culture.

    No longer a simple initiative, the next Chief Diversity Officer may be a Caucasian male or even redundant.  Then, DEI will no longer be seen as a separate and different department.

    Energy Transformation

    The president of the United States recently said, ““ it comes to the gas prices, we’re going through an incredible transition that is taking place that, God willing, when it’s over, we’ll be stronger and the world will be stronger and less reliant on fossil fuels when this is over.”  As many countries implement Climate Change policies, this transition is economically rough to say the least.

    And with no guarantees that these efforts will actually reduce the earth’s temperature decades out, is this a Big Bet with major consequences to all of us.  In our last blog, Innovation: The Key to the Global Future we addressed the economics in detail.  Interested readers should refer to that piece.

    An extensive assessment was developed by Bjorn Lomborg in his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.  His credentials include the fact that he believes in global warming and is not a ‘denier’ as the phase goes.

    Caution to the lemmings jumping off the Energy Transition cliff, this is the ultimate initiative as it is political by nature.  Fickle by nature, political winds can change quickly and with that the value proposition.

    To some extent we are seeing this already as governments seek to address spirally energy costs, i.e., Germany restarts coal-fired power plants.  We might see more of this after the US midterm elections in November.

    ESG

    This initiative is treated as if it is new.  Well run companies have always enjoyed higher equity value.

    In 2011, we published our White Paper, Asset/Equipment Integrity Governance: Operations–Enterprise Alignment.  In that paper, we quoted, “During that period (2002), McKinsey & Company in conjunction with the Global Corporate Governance Forum conducted a study and found that over 75% of over 200 fund managers would value a stock at a higher price point if the company could demonstrate it had strong governance in place.  Moreover, the study also revealed that for western markets, firms with strong shareholder rights averaged 12-14% higher stock prices.”

    We previously addressed ESG in detail and how it fits in our Relationships, Behaviors, Conditions (RBC) Framework  (risk mitigation).  The operative word is Relationships.  This will include every stakeholder, so the impact can be substantial.

    For some organizations, ESG is new and the source of value in the annual Letter to Shareholders.  For others, business as usual incorporates those premises.  Begs the question, which organization would you like to invest in?

    Concluding Thoughts

    In this corporate animal’s experience, initiatives are seen as short-term events.  Leadership’s ‘rubber stamp’ does not carry gravitas.  Employees often ‘wait them out’ and go just about their business.  Others create media splash which dies quickly as well.  Only when change is codified in the organization’s culture do new approaches add sustained value.

    Initiatives fail because neither the board room nor the factory floor see them as adding value.  Fads driven by political winds, activists or social desires come and go.

    Strong governance is a proven value add.  A diverse workforce can add value but climate change as currently practiced will most like fail and fail Big and Expensive.  Society has addressed similar economic issues and will again.

    Are Your Organizational Initiatives Sustainable or Simply Fads?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.

    Disclaimer, the author has no personal or business relationship with Bjorn Lomborg or his publications other than reading and commenting on his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give us a shout.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

     

  • Innovation: The Key to the Global Future

    Innovation: The Key to the Global Future

    Henry Ford, the Founder of Ford Motor Company is famously attributed to this statement.  “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.”  In other words, most of us think linearly.

    One wonders if this line of reasoning is the best way during the current situation.  Perhaps, non-linear mindsets are more appropriate.

    Challenges

    Currently, many define an existential threat as Climate Change.  Additionally, the global economy, the War in Ukraine, bad actors and other ills make the daily news.  We are also told the time is of the essence.  However, it appears the window will close before the appropriate linear responses can come online.

    As the pandemic unfolded in early 2020, we penned a piece on the role innovation would play addressing the global scourge. We put forth some points we believed salient at the time such as:

    • The rise of remote work
    • The ability to scale quickly, i.e., vaccines, ventilators, et. al.
    • Changes in Clinical Trial protocols

    From the same blog, this pundit has long advocated that, “the use of knowledge enabled by technology can reduce project cycle time dramatically.  It can also significantly reduce project cost as well.”

    As we look back on that period, the collective global ‘we’ accomplished a lot.  A plethora of useful materials were developed and published by all manner Subject Matter Experts (SME) as well as those with ‘life knowledge.’  We chose to capture and repost materials (Covid-19 Business Continuity Resources) that could of use to those business executives struggling with work force issues.  These materials remain available.

    Regrettable, the term SCIENCE was terribly misused, including by medical professionals and professional scientists, all of whom should have known better.  This discussion is further developed in our blog, They Blinded Me with Science.   For interested readers, the piece develops the concepts of science and pseudo-science as well as a brief methodology all can use to help them assess what they are being told about major issues.

    Actual Science has moved humanity out of the caves and into our modern world.  Likely, it can help us address current and future global challenges.  The proven innovative use of the Scientific Method is one path forward.

    SpaceX – NASA

    Elon Musk is in the news for a number of reasons.  He is perhaps one of the best know billionaires.  In the opinion of this pundit, the partnership between his company SpaceX and NASA appears to be one of the most productive Public-Private Partnerships (PPP).  Perhaps this good or best practice could be emulated by others seeking new ways to innovate.

    Realistic Energy Transition

    Energy Transition is all the rage with all manner or organization jumping on board.  Somewhat reminds me of the late 1990s dot.com era.  According to Wikipedia, after the ensuring bust, “the NASDAQ-100 had dropped to 1,114, down 78% from its peak.”  Makes one wonder that this might not be the first rodeo for the latest ‘change the world shinny object.’

    Previously, we noted that the replacement of a major highway ramp in Houston, TX USA is slated to take two years.  Additionally, according to McKinsey, “The goal is to install 500,000 public chargers—publicly accessible charging stations compatible with all vehicles and technologies—nationwide by 2030.”  Message: infrastructure development takes a certain amount of time.

    Also from McKinsey, “Capital spending on physical assets for energy and land-use systems in the net-zero transition between 2021 and 2050 would amount to about $275 trillion, or $9.2 trillion per year on average, an annual increase of as much as $3.5 trillion from today.  To put this increase in comparative terms, the $3.5 trillion is approximately equivalent, in 2020, to half of global corporate profits, one-quarter of total tax revenue, and 7 percent of household spending.”

    As of this writing the global stock markets appear to be in freefall.  Some believe, including this author that a Recession is imminent.  This begs the obvious.  How will this linear effort be paid for and what will be the return on this huge investment?

    There must be a better way.

    Innovate, Innovate, Innovate

    In his recent book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet noted climate change advocate, Bjorn Lomborg expresses concern regarding linear type scenarios and investments being made reduces climate change to Net Zero.

    He argues that regardless of efforts made such as described herein, we will not defeat global warming.  The temperature will rise anyway.

    If this is the case, then the ROI from a $275 trillion dollar commitment may in fact be negative.  This might spell economic disaster at a sustained level.

    Lomborg makes the case that innovation is key.  His perspective seems to be more on university led research supported by governments.  There is a role for government to fun basic research and many have for decades.

    Entrepreneurs have been advancing humankind for hundreds of years.  With proper market signals, we can expect a new generation to rise to the occasion addressing the energy transition and ultimately climate change.

    The author is aware of a number of ‘Green’ efforts underway to encourage the development of new commercial technologies.  While not advocating for investment in an Incubator or Accelerator, it seems reasonable that start-up organizations addressing these challenges be encouraged.

    What Role Does Innovation Play in Your Firm’s Approach to Climate Change?.

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.

    Disclaimer, the author has no personal or business relationship with Bjorn Lomborg or his publications other than reading and commenting on his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give us a shout.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

     

     

  • THE SCIENCE: The Reason We Need STEM

    THE SCIENCE: The Reason We Need STEM

    Almost every day, we hear that “The Science” says . . .  We are told Covid-19 and Climate Change are based on The Science and as such we must accept that expert analyses as ‘settled.’  Then something changes and once more the science police demand we accept their new interpretation.

    The near-term result: confusion and lack of trust, even acrimony.  The Science, as presented by the media, politicians and others is a static solution.  As we follow The Science, we are told we must adjust but not necessarily why.

    There is no reason to trust to fate or our political betters (call themselves elites).  The Science is not that mysterious.  The term is meant to deride most of us, including degreed scientists like this author.  Might want to ask those pontificating to define the ‘Scientific Method.’

    Set at the beginning of the 20th Century Space Race, the movie, Hidden Figures brought broad attention to the mathematical genius of a group of then unknown women.  They were instrumental helping the fledgling NASA achieve the early goals of manned space flight, including the lunar landings.  They understood The Science better than others.

    On the Shoulders of Giants

    With the social deck stacked against them, these women rose above the norms of the time and accomplished feats unknown and certainly unexpected by contemporaries.  Perhaps more importantly, they demonstrated that math and science is not reserved for elites.  They educated all of us.

    We live in a technological age and told shortly everything will be ‘Smart.’  The workforce will change, and our view of the world will be dramatically different.  Moreover, many of us will no longer be relevant or even employable.  Balderdash!

    Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math (STEM)

    STEM is the anacronym for the set of technical knowledge embodied in these ‘hard’ disciplines.  Collectively, they form the backbone of our 21st Century economy and social advancement.  While liberal arts disciplines are important, STEM knowledge is critical if we are to hold the ‘experts’ accountable.

    Increasingly, ‘soft’ or social skills are also seen as important.  The old concept of the ‘Nerd’ is giving way to the technologist with human empathy.

    The emerging generation(s) will need STEM expertise as well as soft skills.  In some ways this is no different than previous times when the Titans of Industry changed their world.  Building on new technologies, they built business.  A successful business requires a knowledgeable workforce that can monetize technology.

    The titans this time are everyday men and women, even juveniles.  Knowledge of STEM subjects is dictating individual success or failure.  Get on the STEM train.

    Role of R B C

    We have routinely commented on the Relationships, Behaviors, Conditions model first put forth in the 1990s.  From a previous blog, “One of the basic tenets of the RBC Framework is the general construct that Relationships cannot be determined a priori.  The well-used example is a man and a woman sitting on a bench at a bus stop.  Are they married, siblings, coworkers, friends or simply two people waiting to catch the same/different bus?

    Their relationship cannot be known directly.  However, their Behaviors will provide insight into how they relate to each other.  Romantic behavior may indicate marriage, dating, an affair etc. They may still be coworkers but most likely are not strangers.

    The third dimension, Conditions (environment) can be considered the stage upon which behaviors play.”

    One can make the case that STEM is a condition or situation.  In other words, our technology environment.  The behavior of individuals with these skill sets will determine the relationship these individuals have with their peers, customers/business ecosystem and economy/society in general.

    Finally

    We spend a lot of time, quoting “The Science.”  Most vocalizing the term are not scientists or even qualified to understand its basic tenets.  But taken as gospel because of some perceived authority, i.e., politicians, newscasters, celebrities and bureaucrats among others.

    This scientist suggests that STEM is necessary to assure the emerging generations understand “The Science” and how it can actually be used to benefit mankind.  And, oh yea and make a buck!

    Where does STEM fit in Your Organization’s Strategy?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.