The Rapid Response Institute

Tag: Smart

  • AI In Chaos

    AI In Chaos

    There is a daily flood of often contradictory posts regarding the tremendous and immediate value of Artificial Intelligence (AI).  But are we to believe our lying eyes?

    This picture of wiring stupidity might as well have been taken in my front yard.  Years of shoddy workmanship by firms that do not care in a city that cares even less about its neighborhoods is the result.  But that is not the theme of this post.

    The artificial intelligence software sector looks like this photograph. Tracing connections and thoughts is almost impossible and may require AI to understand AI.  Is that even possible?

    AI Is On Fire

    “We must implement AI because everyone else is doing it” is the mantra.  Expressed by those selling AI products and services, organizations feel pressure to buy immature code as individuals are told their careers are over and robots will replace them in the next few years.  This pundit challenges this rant.

    There is a method to the madness and order can be made out of the chaos of the “new kid on the block.”  It is not necessary to panic or make quick irrational decisions.

    Published in 2023, I co-authored the book, Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability and the just released, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  Moreover, the next forthcoming book by CRC Press, The Transformation of Our Spreadsheet Society: Moving Towards a Nonlinear, Big Data Enabled AI Environment, should be released in early 2026.

    The focus of all these volumes is to help management and non-IT individuals better understand game-changing technologies, how to assess, procure and deploy them and attain superior economic value for the firm.  Additionally, we address what individuals must do to keep their skills and career current and future proofed.

    I mention this because we must all remain clear eyed in this current caldron of chaos.  Rudyard Kipling is famous for his poem that begins, “If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs.”  Our generation should learn from this call to calm, rational thinking (readers should read the entire very powerful poem).

    Those not familiar with the IT field may not know but the sector even has a name for the development curve AI technologies are on.  The research firm, Gardner has developed a tool that can be useful. “The AI Hype Cycle is Gartner’s graphical representation of the maturity, adoption metrics and business impact of AI technologies (including GenAI).  It helps organizations understand where different AI innovations are on the path to becoming mainstream, why they are where they are and what these innovations mean in the context of the overall AI landscape.”  While the Hype Cycle is a commercial offering, a great deal is written, and a high-level understanding is readily available to all from online sources.

    The Storm Will Pass

    AI offers tremendous promise across all human endeavors.  At the moment it is a new shiny object that entices but still has a lot of unknowns.  It will mature and become as ubiquitous as the Internet.

    The rate that individuals embrace change varies widely; however, change is a fact of life, and I believe this change will benefit more than it hinders.  After all, other generations have undergone significant change that we now take for granted, i.e., automobiles (aka horseless carriage), smart devices, etc.

    What are you doing to keep yourself not only relevant but of high value in the AI world?

  • Tariffs Tariffs, Tariffs

    Tariffs Tariffs, Tariffs

    According to the economist, Paul Craig Roberts, “Tariffs protect ill-considered government policies, such as costly regulations and high taxes on labor and capital that make our goods uncompetitive in international markets.”

    Young and emerging countries may want tariffs to protect nascent industries and other local protections to help assure employment and rise of a strong commercial base.  Advanced (OECD) countries seek to protect existing sectors for a number of reasons including employment and political/military power.

    Once in place both exporting and importing countries develop a sense of normalcy and change becomes difficult for all parties involved.  They become part of the business culture of the exporter and importer.  As with other cultural change, engrained habits are stubborn.

    Policy Disruption

    The Trump Administration is arguing that an unlevel trading system has existed, at least since the end of World War II in 1945.  Their tariff policy seeks to update the partner relationship with countries and their companies that are no longer rebuilding form that devastating conflict.  The protections afforded nascent rebuilt from that era are no longer necessary or relevant.

    As might be expected, many prefer the status quo and vehemently argue the unfairness of it all and other rationales for not changing practices and policies that are 80 years old.  This is no difference than those that have been made redundant due to a reorganization make the case for their value add, usually in vain.

    Comparative Advantage

    Over two decades ago this author postulated, “Economists usually think of comparative advantage as a function of the raw material or strategic position a country holds.  In the knowledge age, comparative advantage goes to those who hold the knowledge necessary to achieve strategic posture.”  Moreover, “Thought leadership and subsequent comparative/competitive advantage usually goes to those that see things differently, earlier, or both.  Seeing is one thing, believing another, and implementation still another.  Leaders do not just postulate, they make things happen.  This is the tough part.  Many people have good ideas, but most do not implement and even fewer follow through to the end.”

    In May 2025, President Trump signed over $2 Trillion in business deals with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirate.  These were not traditional oil and gas investments that this part of the world is known for, but commitments in defense, aerospace, AI and other advanced technologies.

    In addition to aircraft and other defense products and solutions, these countries focused on the development of emerging capabilities such as AI.  A classic example of the position taken almost a quarter of a century ago.

    Are Humans Being Replaced?

    This has been the question raised by every dramatic technological introduction.  The general consensus, in this writer’s opinion is, we adapt and adopt to the new when it is beneficial and reject it when it does not add value to our personal life–the ‘What’s in it for ME question.

    This is the contemporary question all of us are reacting to with the advent of Artificial Intelligence.  Accordingly, “The rise of artificial intelligence has reinforced the belief that transformations across various domains can be primarily achieved through digital technology.  However, the creative potential for change of people’s  cognitive, emotional and imaginative powers often loses importance and gives way to  creative technology.   Many therefore see humans as having arrived in the age of post and transhumanism.  But is the human being as such really a kind of obsolete model?  According to such a view, it seems to have become ‘normal’ for people to leave their own fate, as well as the fate of humanity and the environment, to technical transformation possibilities.  This implies accepting that technology increasingly becomes an instrument of control rather than a tool to be used and directed, as individuals become subject to a technology and capitalist artificial intelligence industry that surpasses their own capabilities, leading them to be controlled by it.”

    One can assume that these concerns will cause many to fight for existing international trade rules to remain in place.  This is true, not only for tariffs, readers may remember that in 2024, “The ILA’s ( International Longshoremen’s Association) initial proposal was for a 77% salary increase over the six-year duration of their contract with USMX, as well as a complete ban on the automation of gates, cranes and container-moving trucks at its ports.”

    Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain

    Cultural Disruption can be sharp and quick, like a knife cutting into the skin.  It will take some time and perhaps a long time for transformation to take hold, and wounds to heal.

    However, this parade is marching by.  We can all chose to join in, become a bandleader, or hope it will just go away.  Change can be painful, but without it we cease to grow and will eventually whither and our value to organizations will no longer exist.

    Get with the program!  Tariffs were never meant to be generational, but only a short-term economic band aid.

    How are you and your loved ones preparing for ongoing technological convulsions?

     

    Pre order our new book, May 23, 2025

    Navigating the Data Minefields:

    Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making

    We are living in an era of data and software exponential growth.  A substantive flood hitting us every day.  Geek heaven!  But what if information technology is not your cup of tea and you may even have your kids help with your smart devices?  This may not be a problem at home; however, what if your job depends on Big Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI)?

    Preorder May 23, 2025

    Ordering Information

    We are also pleased to advise our loyal readers that CRC Press has accepted our proposal for this forthcoming book, Nonlinear Big Data and AI-Enabled Problem-Solving: Transforming From A Spreadsheet Society.  Publication 2026.  Stay tuned for more details.

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is the coauthor of the 2023 book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be released by CRC Press in June 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross-Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg and his book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • Birds of a Feather . . .

    Birds of a Feather . . .

    Eagles Soar, others flock.

    Post the US election, it seems that many on the losing side are circling the wagons and pointing to the ‘other guy’ to blame for a series of political sins.  Like fish in a school, the belief seems to be that the crowd provides an element of protection.  But is this belief borne out by observation?

    Experience suggests that the masses can be figuratively slaughtered while the lone leader prevails.

    Keep Doing What You’re Doing

    Paraphrasing the Brown/Einstein quote about insanity, ‘many are doubling down on past behaviors that have already cost success.’  Yet we humans keeping going back to the old playbook.  Partially, because we do not know any other options.  Shame on those without a well thought out strategy (with options) because as we know, ‘No plan survives initial contact.”  If your political party just lost a major nationwide election, why would the first post-election reaction be to do more of the same?  Not all are taking this path, but based on the public media it seems many are.

    We often refer to the concept of Groupthink, “A process through which the desire for consensus in groups can lead to poor decisions.  Rather than object to them and risk losing a sense of group solidarity, members may remain silent and lend their support,” when speaking about group dynamics.  Let me posit that this sociological model does not address the dynamics of the losing side in the recent Presidental election.

    The Abilene Paradox

    The “Abilene paradox refers to a situation wherein no member of a group decides to contest a decision taken by the group, believing it to be the consensus of everyone, when in reality, none of the group members agree with the decision.  However, none of them speak up for the fear of going against the wishes of others and end up regretting not speaking up in time.”

    To this pundit, the Abilene paradox more closely mirrors what may have been happening to the losing presidential candidate team than many other social and behavioral models.

    The following short video provides a good and concise presentation of this methodology and its origin.  Suggest readers take a few minutes to watch it.

    Early Signals from the Markets

    Note: This paragraph is the opinion of this writer and not the result of a formal data analysis or use of any methodology.  Also, it does make one wonder if the results of the US Presidental election were borne out exclusively for the reasons many pundits are putting currently putting forward.

    Thanksgiving is the informal kick off for the holidays or Christmas.  It seems that the atmosphere this year is more upbeat, even joyous than in the recent past.  For example, starting with the so-called Black Friday (the day after Thanksgiving), “E-commerce was the biggest winner over the weekend, showing the strongest growth year over year. U.S. online sales for the weekend were $41.1 billion, and online spending set new records on each of the five days, according to data from Adobe Analytics.”  Despite persistent inflation, these sales figures are extraordinarily strong.

    Moreover, advertisers seem more willing to use the phase, “Merry Christmas” more than in the recent past.

    Perhaps, the outcome of the election excited the population, but maybe there is an additional factor to be considered.

    Retail marketers must develop champaigns well in advance of the purchasing season.  Decisions regarding inventory volume and key ‘in’ styles and toys etc. must be made.  Moreover, festivities, parades and other market Pull Drivers as well Push (when appropriate) must be developed, funded and implemented.

    Bottom Line–these efforts should be seen as a major Leading Indicator.  This suggests that retailers and other consumer/hospitality sectors had supporting data many months ago, i.e., Big Data Analytics.

    Hypothesis, while very important, the personalities in the election may have played a lesser role than many believe.  The rising tide lifted the boat of the candidate(s) that could sense this underlying movement higher better than those that did not pick up on these vibrations.  This is an important leadership trait.

    This does not diminish the role of candidates and positions taken.  We simply make the case that there is a broader social and economic movement afoot.

    This writer only has access to public information and the opinions of others on this subject.  There may be other processes and behaviors taken by the presidential parties (not publicized) that can either add or detract from the arguments herein.  Additionally, some public behaviors such as campaign budgets and spending habits are known and likely contributed to the wining process as well as the losing operation.

    Final Thoughts

    In the coming years many books, research papers and other documents will be written about the 2024 US Presidental election.  Some will add real value to the discussion, yet sadly many will seek to justify positions taken.  Others will label scapegoats.

    Likely, history will show that this election is but a single yet major impact event of a very large social transformation whose final impact we cannot yet surmise. 

    To be successful in this new environment, individuals and the groups they represent only gain actionable and factual knowledge when strict and structured methodologies are use based on strong data foundations.  In this piece, the November 15, 2024, edition The Transformation of Our Spreadsheet Society and others (previously published and future editions), we attempt to participate in these early discussions.

    What have you learned from the outcomes of November 5, 2024?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the recently published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be published by CRC Press in 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg and his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • The Transformation of Our Spreadsheet Society

    The Transformation of Our Spreadsheet Society

    “The only rules are the ones dictated by the laws of physics.  Everything else is a recommendation.”  — Walter Isaacson/Elon Musk

    We live in a spreadsheet society.  Columns of Categories of People and Rows of Wants, Needs, and Desires.  This model is too simplistic.  What is needed, and Big Data can provide, is a more sophisticated approach.

    This spreadsheet approach was shown in the recent US elections to be detrimental to the party mainly depending on this view of society.  How many times did we hear pollsters opine that X percent of a certain population was voting for one candidate vs. the other?  The categories of people were divided along traditional lines.  This whole model was shattered on November 2, 2024, and likely some providers of data in this format may no longer be in business for the next cycle.

    However, this belief system is not limited to the political class.  We all can fall into this stereotype.

    For decades we have been taught that data categories can be captured under a Normal Distribution (Bell) Curve of a category and row of interest, i.e., the distribution of the height of a class of male senior high school students or SAT scores.  Another more relevant example, retailers’ pertinacious obsession with the 18–34-year-old group.

    These are fairly simple models, and in this Blogger’s opinion, this representation rarely works anymore, if it ever did.  For example, the resulting retail sector inventory overages as a result of dependencies on this gross data model are not an effective return on shareholder value.  Other recent missteps based on faulty interpretation of the customer/prospect base include the Bud Lite advertising fiasco and the Target marketing failure.

    It is ok to make marketing mistakes, that is going to happen.  The problem with these two (and other) campaigns is the analysis of risk, return, etc. was likely shallow or mathematically primitive.

    There are ways to appeal to new consumers without alienating a large existing base.  It’s all in the big numbers.

    There are several validated models of human behavior and we will discuss two of them herein, Maslow’s Hierarchy and the Relationships, Behaviors, Conditions model.  Some readers may prefer others, and they will most likely work within this construct as well.

    Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs

    This perspective on human needs and subsequent behaviors dates back to the 1940s.  As shown, it consists of five steps from survival to the ultimate Self Actualization.  Note that we adapt this model in two ways.  First, we view this as a growth process as opposed to five discrete steps.  Additionally, the bottom two lower ranges focus mostly on the physical issues we all face.  Fundamental survival and security both physically, mentally, emotionally and spiritually.  Once we have attained, sustained, and believe, we are ready to transition towards an end game, “the realization or fulfillment of one’s talents and potentialities, especially considered as a drive or need present in everyone.”

    Next, we will discuss how we can use this and the RBC solutions to realize specific and measurable value that changes this dynamic.

    The color gradient is meant to reflect that this journey is a process and often each field begins slowly before accelerating into the next range.

    Another perspective of each the Five Platforms consists of a number of smaller steps, which when assessed using Integral Calculus, generates a continuum.

    Relationships, Behaviors, and Conditions (RBC)

    The following is taken from our Cross-Cultural Online Game site:

    The RELATIONSHIPS, BEHAVIORS, and CONDITIONS (RBC) model was originally developed to address issues around cross cultural (international) negotiation processes.   As shown in the figure, Relationships are the focal point of this perspective, reflecting commonality of interest, balance of power and trust as well as intensity of expressed conflict.  Behaviors in this model is defined as a broad term including multi-dimensions and intentional as well as unintentional.  Finally, Conditions are defined as active and including circumstances, capabilities and skills of the parties, culture, and the environment.  Of course, Time is a variable in this model as well.

    Moreover, we have defined Behavioral Economics as “the decision-making model that incorporates societal, cultural, emotions and other human biases into the process as opposed to the classic rational economic actor.

    One key feature of the R B C Framework is its emphasis on interactive relationships while providing an environment for multiple levels of behavioral analysis.   This makes it a useful tool to better understand the new Big Data/AI processes currently unfolding.

    The following graphic is a derivative of our Cross-Cultural Interactions model.  It is a peer reviewed model and is a very good way to calibrate interactions.  Additional information is available on the above link.

    This author has long believed that we do not live in a linear or mathematically deterministic world.  A strong belief in stochastic, matrices drive much of my thinking.  This is reflected in the figure on the left.  The RBC model is the foundation for the five parties and their collective Behaviors.  The resulting Relationships range from one-on-one to small groups or in some cases a wide and varied constituency.

    Note that there is an Ecosystem, (something, such as a network of businesses, considered to resemble an ecological ecosystem especially because of its complex interdependent parts) associated with each entity other that the individuals’ who are the other four.

    This is a wide array of influences on any given individual.  Not easily measured, linearly!

    Scientific Method

    Most readers are familiar with how science has been brought into bolster the position of pundits/advocates of policy, especially related to Covid-19.  The word is tossed around casually, as if most who use it know what they are talking about.  Spoiler Alert–Most Do Not! This includes some with advanced technical or medical bona fides.

    Most think that by using the word ‘science’ this assessment process is out of their wheelhouse.  Previously, we argued that there is a layperson’s approach that works fine for most of our daily needs.  Details can be found on our Blog, They Blinded Me with Science.

    For space reasons, this (guidelines) model will not be repeated here but check it out, it is a short read.

    The late Nobel Laureate, Richard Feynman has a brief and layperson-oriented presentation on the Scientific Method.  He is an excellent teacher, and this clip is informative as well as entertaining.

     “If it disagrees with experiment, its wrong”—Richard Feynman

    Human Input Still Needed

    To be clear, pollsters and marketers will still need to ask questions that will also help structure the model, but the processes posited herein can change the weighting processes driving toward equilibrium and Pareto Optimality (Pareto efficiency implies that resources are allocated in the most economically efficient manner but does not imply equality or fairness) in the final analysis.  In other words, higher quality results.

    These numbers can also be seen as ‘first value’ in a simulation.  Another way to look at this is to the logic the Turing (Bombe) Machine of World War II.  Not setting a number as itself.

    Then AI can take the model to the next level and provide pollsters/marketers with real, modern solutions.  Finally, other uses will most likely be derivatives of this solution.

    The Data Management Problem

    We have identified a general problem as well as three valid and reliable theories.  This is only a nice discussion without relevance with Valid, Reliable, and Timely (VRT) data.  Data Management has been a problem as long as there has been data, stone, paper or electronic.  It has always been an issue.  “Herman Hollerith is given credit for adapting the punch cards used for weaving looms to act as the memory for a mechanical tabulating machine, in 1890.”  Much later (circa 1950s) digital database management schemas emerged.  Today, we are flooded by data of all types including telemetry and deliberately false data/information.

    How can this be effectively managed and how can an executive without a technology background survive much less thrive in such an environment?

    For decades, this author has been involved in almost all computer system development from the yellow punch tape of the 1960s until today.  There have been several constants over that period.

    One of the biggest chronic challenges has been database management; from the acquisition of data through its life cycle until achieve.  An outcome of poor data management has been decisions that have even led to the demise of firms, along with tens of thousands (if not more) of suboptimal decisions at the expense of shareholder value (bottom line/stock price).  What makes the current crop of Big Data/Artificial Intelligence advocates any smarter than those who came before?  Nothing!  Unless some things are changed.

    Our forthcoming book to be published by CRC Press in 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).  The following and other managerial action items are developed in detail.

    • How to determine the quality of the data and its relevance to the decision-making processes.
    • Current Challenges and Trends in Big Data and associated applications.
    • Proposed organization structure such as High Reliability Organization and an understanding of Human Factors to fully realize the full and measurable economic value from these technologies.
    • A full set of Risk Mitigation and a Governance model including Disaster Recovery and Cyber Security.
    • How these technologies are used in Operations, a proposed Management System as well as numerous Case Studies across a number of industries and types of problems.

    The challenge of managing this suite of emerging AI/Big Data is daunting and one that cannot be dodged or delegated.  How organizations respond can be the difference between success or the destruction of shareholder value.

    It’s The Data Stupid

    Our pollsters are collecting and analyzing data that are self-reported.

    • A questionnaire is developed which may or may not reflect bias.
    • These questions are posed to potential respondents (phone and otherwise) who may detect a voice tone, and/or the subject may intentionally lie or mislead.
    • Finally, who answers the phone these days?  This skews the data sample and perhaps badly.

    Data collected in this manner is not subject to rigor and most likely wrong or skewed.  Finally, data collected in this manner is not suitable for the new Big Data Analytic models.

    One Proposed Better Way

    There are probably several much better ways to address political and marketing problems.  While no data source is perfect, we posit the following way to use the US Census data.  We can treat it as a function of columns and rows yet apply sophistical data analysis algorithms.

    Categories

    As mentioned, we tend to clump or stereotype individuals into preconceived ‘buckets.’  Over time, these buckets have taken on an aura of, it’s the only way.  Basically, the construct that ‘we have always done it this way.’
     
    This is no longer a viable business or social model.  Our world is much too dynamic for the older static approach to targeting the likelihood of a specific demographic to perform in a preconceived prescriptive manner.
     
    One place to start looking is at the United States Census data.  This data set consists of 57 profiles, The United States and each State and Territory.  Each Profile is divided into several Sub-Categories, Populations and People, Income and Poverty, Education, Employment, Housing, Health, Business and Economy, Race and Ethnicity, and Nearby States.  Each Sub-Category is further detailed.
     
    We might even call the data in these Categories/Sub-Categories, Conditions from the RBC model.  Each Platform in Maslow’s Hierarchy can be considered a Category with infinite Sub-Categories.  Likewise, Conditions.

    Rows

    We have identified the following three variable model as representative of human Behaviors–Wants, Needs, and Desires.  We have previously reviewed some of this in our Blog, Want – Like – Need  in 2019.  These can also be mapped to Behaviors in both the RBC and Maslow models.
     
    Details and a short list of some variables follow.  These definitions can overlap, and readers will note that there is some duplication across all three classes below.  Researchers use different definitions for each class.  This does not detract from the fundamentals of Rows selected for analysis.  
    The point is to develop a list of behaviors that is indicative of the problem to be solved.

    Wants

    For purposes of this model, we define Want as something that an individual might seek as part of normal life, i.e., and ice cream cone.

    Needs

    Those fundamentals of life, especially as defined in Maslow’s Hierarchy, platforms one and two.

    Desires

    Different from Wants, Desires are perhaps beyond his/her reach.  Coveting a promotion and willing to back stab co-workers to get it rather than compete on merit.

    Sources of Wants, Needs, and Desires

    We have suggested that a starting point for Categories is the very large US Census database.  No such singular source exists for these behaviors and there is an overlap in definitions.  This list gives readers a starting point.  In no particular order, this non-comprehensive includes:

    The list goes on, but readers get the point.  A large row of behaviors will help develop a robust model.

    And The Answer Is

    While we know that the solution to the political pollster and/or marketing manager is not a definitive answer, we can do better than we are.  We know how to management data in this environment and we have models for assessing and making decisions based on results.  As we move from simple, small data set, linear models to robust Big Data Analysis, we need to consider a few additional action items.

    Scientific Method

    Do not forget to use this methodology to define and refine your problem statement.

    Model Limits

    • While we are using a significant number of independent and dependent variables, we are not trying to solve world hunger.  Therefore, we need to put limits on (Bound) the model.  This is an age-old problem we first addressed in 2015, Bounding the Boundless.
    • From a scientific perspective, “Across all science, modelling is our most powerful tool, as models let us focus on the few details that matter most, leaving many others aside.  Models also help reveal the typically far-from-intuitive consequences when multiple causal factors act in combination.”
    • Additionally, “Getting AI/ML/DL systems to work has been one of the biggest leaps in technology in recent years, but understanding how to control and optimize them as they adapt isn’t nearly as far along.  These systems are generally opaque if a problem develops in the field.  There is little or no visibility into how algorithms are utilized, or how weights that determine their behavior will change with a particular use case or interactions with other technology.”
    • Moreover, “the European Union this week (2021) issued guidelines for AI — specifically including ML and automated decision-making systems — limiting the ability of these systems to act autonomously, requiring ‘secure and reliable systems software,’ and requiring mechanisms for ensuring responsibility and accountability for AI systems and their outcomes.”

    Diminishing Returns

    Since we are not boiling the ocean, at some point continuing with the model will result reduced performance.  According to Economists, “The law of diminishing returns says that, if you keep increasing one factor in the production of goods (such as your workforce) while keeping all other factors the same, you’ll reach a point beyond which additional increases will result in a progressive decline in output.  In other words, there’s a point when adding more inputs will begin to hamper the production process.”

    “Data is just a way of codifying information. Any data gathered should be relevant to a problem, otherwise useless data clouds the results of a query.  If there are too many degrees of freedom, you are begging for a spurious correlation.”

    Readers may be familiar with, “The Pareto Principle, also known as the 80-20 rule, is a concept that many have adopted for their life and time management.  It is the idea that 20% of the effort, or input, leads to 80% of the results or output.  The point of this principle is to recognize that most things in life are not distributed evenly.”  This may be a satisfactory approach to this application.
     

    Need for a Data Scientist

    This approach may require the use of a professional data scientist to realize a valid and reliable outcome.  “A data scientist is an analytics professional who is responsible for collecting, analyzing and interpreting data to help drive decision-making in an organization.  The data scientist role combines elements of several traditional and technical jobs, including mathematician, scientist, statistician and computer programmer.  It involves the use of advanced analytics techniques, such as machine learning and predictive modeling, along with the application of scientific principles.  As part of data science initiatives, data scientists often must work with large amounts of data to develop and test hypotheses, make inferences and analyze things such as customer and market trends, financial risks, cybersecurity threats, stock trades, equipment maintenance needs and medical conditions.”

    More

    This is not a definitive list and is provided to give readers an understanding of what it will take to move forward with the Big Data Analysis model.  Appropriate research and problem definition may reveal additional or fewer requirements.

    Demise of Linear

    The Linear broadcast approach to selling or changing minds is not the relevant delivery vehicle for new micro-data analysis.  Directed notifications is better although practice this with care.  This last election cycle, I received a text, words to the effect, “can we count of your vote for X?”  I was very much against X and no reason was offered to help me change my mind.  Get with the program and don’t be so lazy developing your spiel or message.

    Elon Musk’s ‘Algorithm’

    This is an interesting approach to problem solving that can have relevance to the issue discussed herein.  Can we reduce complexity without losing data fidelity, “The accuracy, completeness, consistency, and timeliness of data.  In other words, it’s the degree to which data can be trusted to be accurate and reliable.”

    His Five Step Process:

    1. Question Every Requirement

    2. Delete Any Part or Process You Can

    3. Simplify and Optimize

    4. Accelerate Cycle Time

    5. Automate

    Readers may ask, how does this fit in this discussion?  We bring this to your attention because it may help identify and bound the problem to be solved.

    Also, perhaps of some value is his, “idiot index, which calculated how much more costly a finished product was than the cost of its basic materials.  If a product had a high idiot index, its cost could be reduced significantly by devising more efficient manufacturing techniques.”  A survey, analysis, etc. are all products and may benefit from this index model.

    Final Thoughts

    Most financial professionals will tell you that spreadsheets must foot (the sum of all rows must equal the sum of all columns).  Can societies or multiple societies foot their columns and rows?  Most likely not and if that is the case, data from this model is not valid or reliable.

    Most likely, this type of data will take the form of a Scatter Diagram (without correlation?) with some clumps or areas of intensity of a specific category or group of categories.

    This may not be an approach that many will take; however, it is clear that the original premise of this piece, that we live in a spreadsheet society is no longer appropriate.  “If you always do what you always did, you will always get what you always got.” ― Albert Einstein.  It will be interesting to see how future polling is conducted.

    Non-Linear Speed Ahead

    Sometimes pieces like this summarize a conclusion.  In the high-pressure environment, we are not concluding anything.  We are carving a way forward–A Growth Model of the Data Economy.

    As of this writing the incoming US administration appears to be moving at hyper speed across a broad front.  Moreover, AI in particular exploding.  Those interested in keeping up may want to to Subscribe | Generative’s AI Newsletter (not an endorsement but seems be a good daily source of information).  Mostly, just keeping up will not be enough, if top quartile success is the goal.

    It will be interesting to see the role the family of Artificial Intelligence (AI) software solutions play in this field going forward.

    Micro-targeting is certainly a place for Big Data to shine.  That said the problem to be solved and the confidence in the validity and reliability of the data must ascertained. 

    Society faces some real challenges with how we manage, analyze and decide using data.  This is but one example where old methods no longer produce valid and reliable results.  How will you and your organization go forward?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the recently published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be published by CRC Press in 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

    Copyright © 2024 The Rapid Response Institute LLC.  All rights reserved.

  • Cultural Cognitive Dissonance

    Cultural Cognitive Dissonance

    “Cognitive dissonance is the mental discomfort that results from holding two conflicting beliefs, values, or attitudes.”  — Verywellmind

    Typically, we associate this behavioral issue with individual humans.  Yet, aren’t organization comprised of human beings?  Well at least until the AI robots take over.

    There can be many issues causing individual and collective angst and some are described below.  However, it is not daily decisions management makes that we do not agree with that are the most destructive.  The real challenges groups face are the ones that challenge organizational culture–such as major change or organizational transformation efforts.

    Yet, what if cultural cognitive dissonance is not caused by major one time events?  What if it is the result of the systemic nature of the organization.  For example, employees are routinely treated poorly and not valued.

    From a personal perspective, twice in my career I blow the sales quota away by multi-millions.  My reward; thanks and we can’t pay that much in commission.  And the final coup de grâce, “we want more of this type business so we are going to hire someone to do it.”  Guess, what!  Both companies did and these huge deals were never sold again.  Oh and BTW, both went out of business not long after.

    There are consequences when organizations exhibit cultural cognitive dissonance.  Not just to the individual, but that message was clearly sent and no one ever again stepped out of their boxes.  Game, Set, Match!

    Moreover, for large global firms, there may be cultural clashes among the different global divisions/companies.  This can be managed but may often be at odds with each other.

    From Verywellmind, the following three major causes of cognitive dissonance apply to organizations as well as individuals.

    Causes of Cognitive Dissonance

    • Forced Compliance–Required to behave in a certain way that may be contrary to beliefs or desired behavior
    • New Information–Obtaining new information or data that calls into question previous positions
    • Decisions–The quandary of needing to select one of two or more similar alternatives

    According to the well regarded Cleveland Clinic, “Cognitive dissonance can feel a lot like anxiety and stress — and they often come paired together. When you’re stressed or anxious, you could affect your overall mental, emotional and physical health.”

    This observer suggests that these symptoms will apply to organizations as well.  This could contribute or lower performance and even the demise of a once viable organization.  This condition is something to be taken seriously.

    Does your organization realize there may some internal cognitive dissonances in your culture?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the just published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • Fake Science

    Fake Science

    “I would rather have questions that can’t be answered than answers that can’t be questioned.” – Richard Feynman

    “I am the science.”  You have got to be kidding me Mr. Fauci.  Clearly, you have no training in the Scientific Method or maybe your just plan arrogant.  Home many lives have you and you colleagues destroyed, you fake scientist?

    As an actual degreed physicist, I have published here and other media on the process ‘real’ scientists take to address new phenomena.  Yet a singular medical doctor, not a degreed scientist claims the godlike mantel of ‘I am science?’

    Welcome to 21st Century quackery.  In his testimony before Congress, “Dr. Fauci reaffirmed shocking testimony that the ‘six feet apart’ social distancing recommendation that he promoted was arbitrary, not based on science, and ‘sort of just appeared.’”  Science?  NOT!!  Do I hear leaches and blood letting are next?

    Trillions and Trillions and Trillions

    Untold lives and treasure has been destroyed by the Covid-19 quacks.  Not just MD types but a complacent media and hapless governments (politicians as well as regulators) at all levels.

    I am not a Covid denier.  Yes, many got sick and too many died, but we are now learning is that a so call ‘medical’ approach to this problem was based on NOTHING real!  Moreover, it appears that senior officials at the  National Health Institute knowingly lied to us repeatedly.

    Let me see if I understand this, a US funded research institute focused on ‘gain of function‘ released the Covid or it came from a bat?  Readers can make their own decision.

    Pockets were padded and many had their (more) than fifteen minutes of fame.  What did the rest of us get? Lost jobs, closed (forever) small businesses, and now ‘oh joy’ inflation due to government largess.

    The National Institute of Health appears to have put in place a systematic procedure to foil Freedom of Information Act requests.   Our right to know and have oversight that limits the ability of dictatorships to emerge was compromised.

    The arrogance and disgust which these so called public service hold us, the public is beyond the pail.  But not to worry they are all multimillionaires working on GS 15 (~ $180,000) salaries.  They must get great investment advice.

    The old saying about reality is applicable, “If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it just may be a duck.”  Or it may be a MD policy wonk from the government that is ‘here to help or destroy your life.’  Remember how those who questioned the conventional wisdom were treated/abused?

    Bring in the mandatory masks.  No less than the conservative (lol) AL JAZEERA reports that key Covid players now question the value of masks we were all forced to wear.  Fascism!

    What the world was put through for years by dictatorial medical types and the fake media that took down other opinions and approaches is appalling.  Jail time is too good for these liars as they got rich.  Next time they come up with the crap they should be run out of town as they have not earned any respect.

    Have you put your liar detector in place when the fake government arrives and says ‘we are here to help/mandate?’

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the just published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • Living on the Edge?

    Living on the Edge?

    The (credited to) Chinese saying, “May you live in interesting times” was once reframed by a colleague of mine.  He suggested, “May we live in less interesting times.”

    His statement was made years ago in yet another major economic downturn.  Today, we are living in the turmoil of economic inflation as well as civil unrest, political uproar and even active military conflicts in Europe and the Middle East as well as threats of more in the Asian theater.

    If you Google the term, “Tension at the Margin,” you will get almost nothing.  This scientist has long used this terminology do describe surface tension such as shown between water in a glass and the air as well as other intersections.

    So it is with life.  There is a level of good tension between a well-ordered environment and total chaos.  Successful societies live in that tension.  Unsuccessful ones either fall into Totalitarian Order or decent into Disastrous Chaos.

    Benjamin Franklin is credited with the prophetic statement when asked about the political structure of the emerging then new United States of America, “A Republic, If You Can Keep It.”

    Tension at the Margin is defined and well understood by Physics.  Human behavioralists seems to think that this is an abnormal situation.  It is NOT!

    The Chinese philosophy concept of Ying and Yang speaks to this issue–“opposite but interconnected, mutually perpetuating forces.”  Is this not the same as what Physicist believe about the natural world?

    I the choice is a Dictatorship, Warfare in the Streets or a Republic, I will take the Republic Tension at the Margin.

    There are almost 9 billion people in the world and best I can tell none of think exactly the same.  These differences should be celebrated and capitalized on.  All other positions are economically and socially disadvantaged.

    What is your organization doing to capitalize on this Positive and Natural Tension?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the just published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our recent blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • Data Management for the Non-Technical Executive

    Data Management for the Non-Technical Executive

    “Per McKinsey research from June 2022, nearly 70 percent of the top economic performers, compared with just half of their peers, are using their own software to differentiate themselves from their competitors.”

    McKinsey went on to state that:

    • Digital products are driving the need to embed software across the board
    • Increasingly, more value is being derived in products and services from software
    • The growth of low cost Cloud and AI programming are putting unprecedented power into the hands of the global workforce

    The foundational key to global economies with tightly integrated software into products such as automobiles is DATA.  According to the research firm, IDC approximately 175 zettabytes of data will exist in 2025.  IDC went on to report that one zettabyte is ONE TRILLION GIGABYTES and that to download this amount of data would take 1.8 billion years.

    This amount of data and its criticality to the firm’s success are staggering statements.

    How are organizations going to be able to management this new economy in a meaningful way?  We can’t all be data scientists.

    Enter the Non-Technologist

    It is safe to say that data will be used by all aspects of the organization and its extended supply chain.  Finance, HR, Procurement, Tax, Sales & Marketing, Researchers, Medical Doctors, Facilities Management, etc. are staffed with experts in those fields not necessarily in IT or specifically Data Management.  How are these executives and their staffs be assured the data and software they are using ‘spit out’ the correct results?

    This is a daunting challenge today will only  get worse.  Moreover, the software sector is notorious for it poor quality documentation and many do not follow strict data management protocols.

    On the Horizon

    This blogger has been dealing with technical and later financial and business data of various qualify and sources since at least 1968.  Maybe I have not seen it all, but I have seen a lot including significantly poor data with significant gaps.  Management at all levels are not equipped to understand the underpinnings of the data they are using to make critical decisions.  Is the data Valid and Reliable (accurate and repeatable)?  Many are not even aware of the definition of those simple terms.  How can they trust the data provided?

    This author is pleased to announce that he recently entered into a contract with CRC Press to draft the book, “Navigating the Data Minefield: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making” to be published in 2025.

    This book will provide the non-IT software executive with tools and best practices to help her/him assure that the data provided by internal and external provider is of high quality.  It will provide a roadmap model that is straightforward and easy to understand.  It will also provide data and software experts with an understanding on the type of questions management may ask as well as project deliverables expectations.

    Stay tuned we will keep you informed as the exciting project develops.

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the just published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our recent blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • Learn from the Big Guy

    Learn from the Big Guy

    We have all heard the flight attendant say, “Thank you for flying with us and welcome your destination, another on time arrival.”  Usually stated with gusto, as if an on time arrival was uncommon!

    Pundits and politicians are telling us that Santa will be late this year.  More salt on the wound, the jolly elf may not have everything on our list.  “Say it isn’t so, oh the humanities.”  Pass the eggnog please, Clark.

    This prognosticator suspects they are all wrong!!  Every young child knows that Santa, Mrs. Claus and their host of elves make all the toys, all year long at the North Pole.  So what’s the problem?  They are wrapping (pun?) things up even as you read this piece, right?

    Well, the dirty little secret is that somewhere along the way, Santa outsourced and even offshored his manufacturing and much of his distribution.  Must have been when the elves went on strike during Y2K.  Toy manufacturing no longer takes place at the North Pole.

    Be ‘SMART’ About Things

    However, Santa is a visionary.  He is a SMART Manufacturing Early Adopter, even an Innovator.  Shortly after, “The term Smart Manufacturing was coined in 2006 at a National Science Foundation workshop on Cyberinfrastructure,” Santa secretly developed his Proof of Concept and later a Pilot at a North Pole toy facility.  Legend has it that by 2012 he was deploying enterprise level SMART Toy Manufacturing at global scale.

    Today, some of Santa’s Helpers appear to be struggling against the firm deadline.  Their level of ’empowerment’ and creativity will determine how well the territory they are responsible for fares later this month.

    For those in real trouble, one suspects that Santa has already done two (2) things.  First he has probably sent in Teams of supply chain Subject Matter Expert elves to help suppliers get processes back on track  Additionally, he has transferred business from those who might miss the deadline to those forward looking firms that value High Reliability Organizational traits and will perform against the deadline.

    Santa is not only SMART, he and his organization are Resilient!

    Disruptions Amongst Us

    When things go bump-in-the-night with a supply chain, the worst thing Santa’s Helpers can do is fib.  Check is in the mail, dog ate my homework, I over slept, my car would not start, my computer crashed and so forth and so on.  Like most parents of small children, he has heard it all before over his long life.

    Santa always knows ‘who has been bad and good,’ and Data Analytics does not lie about his supply chain ecosystem.  You can try to hide but you cannot run.  While coal is out favor these days, Santa still have plenty to deliver as necessary.  Coal in your stocking would ruin a Carbon Free Holiday, so behave.

    Yes Virginia,

    There is a Santa Claus and he has never screwed things up!  He will fly from his distribution center at the North Pole the night of December 24th.  As he always has.  On the morning of the 25th, kids all over the world will celebrate.  The supply chain Grinch will not steal from the kiddos.  All will be joyful and full of song.

    Santa will deliver, despite the challenges faced.  If he can, why can’t your organization?  For those who have seen the movie Miracle on 34th Street, you know he is real?  In that movie, he delivers a house to a skeptical young girl.  He found a way.

    Santa has a global distribution problem– yet he always delivers on time to the largest customer base of all!  He has to for if he failed and his customer’s lost faith in him, it might be the end of the month of December as we know it.  The stakes could not be higher.

    Usher in the New Year

    Paraphrasing the late Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, “You go to war with the supply chain you have, not the supply chain you might want or wish to have at a later time.”  A later time always comes regardless of preparation or not.  If your organization is one of Santa’s Helpers/Suppliers that did not have business processes that were ‘smart’ enough this year, Happy New Year!  Start January 2nd to transform the old ways.

    For more about SMART Manufacturing, keep an eye our for the release of our 2022 book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  We will announce it on these pages when it is available.

    Hope you all found a bit of holiday cheer in this piece.  The story may be tongue-in-cheek, but the message is real.  It is time for all of us to ‘Get Smart.’  For those of you who were children of the 1960s, you will get the pun.  For the rest of you, GOOGLE IT!

    Happy Holidays

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.

  • The Secret of the Pencil

    The Secret of the Pencil

    The writing instrument, the pencil is purported to have been invented in 1795.  It has been around for a while and continues to serve a useful purpose.

    In the following video, the late economist Milton Friedman describes the process for manufacturing this simple longstanding tool.  The point he makes is that regardless of the simplicity and maturity of a product, it requires a robust supply chain from raw material through the distribution of the finished product.

    He makes the case that no single organization can make this simple tool without help from many economic actors and the thousands of organizations employed either as employees or part of individual supply chains.  This is a powerful argument for free market behaviors.  Well worth a little over 2 minutes of your time to view.

    As of this writing, there is probably more discussion about the global supply chain than this writer can remember.  The last time we saw such exposure was after the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami, offshore Japan.  However, it was specific to goods and services provided from Japan.  This time it actually is different.  The current shipping disruption is purported to impact on the US holiday gift giving season.  The resulting impact on firms of all sizes may be dramatic and even impact on all levels of politics.

    States like Florida and Georgia and others are arguing that Asian shippers gain value by landing at their ports versus the closer ones on the West Coast of the United States.  If the economics bear this model out, significant long-term changes may be made.

    Pundits, including this one like to talk about Creative Destruction and the systemic changes that can come about as the result of an event.  While the pandemic may be the causal incident, the global supply chain will likely be the lasting impactful change in global commerce.

    As with the simple, mature product the pencil, every firm’s lifeblood is its supply chain.  How it works through this transformational period may help declare the winners and losers going forward.

    In our forthcoming book, we address the emerging Smart Manufacturing model and the role of the supply chain in the future.  Expect this component to become even more important.  Disruptions like the current one will ruin more than just the ability to manufacture automobiles.  Those with weak SC strategies will most likely fail.

    What is Your Firm Doing to Develop the Robust Supply Chain of the Future.

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    Interested in Cross Cultural Engagement or DEI, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.

    Contact the author for information on these and others subjects covered in the Critical Mass series.

  • Roadmap to Decision Making In the ‘Smart’ Era

    Roadmap to Decision Making In the ‘Smart’ Era

    “Nothing is more difficult, and therefore more precious, than to be able to decide.”

    — Napoleon Bonaparte

    Volumes have been written on decision-making and this pundit has offered his share of insight and comment on the subject as well.  Some of our comments regard the appropriateness of the human intercession in electronic decision making.  Others raise questions regarding algorithm fallibility.  Moreover, Human Factors must be considered for any technology initiative which are becoming increasingly important.

    If one unpacks the previous paragraph a substantial level of complexity emerges.  As complexity increases so does risk and the need from proper governance.  However, many still see this potential transformation through the lens of just another IT initiative.

    Roadmap

    The oil and gas industry faced a similar dilemma at the dawn of the 21st Century.  At the time, referred to as DOFF or Digital Oilfield of the Future, a plethora of technologies became available.  The task was to transform 100 plus years of traditional operation to what is now referred to as the Digital Oilfield, aka Integrated Operations and a number or synonyms.  While this processes continues to evolve as new solutions emerge, i.e., Cloud, at the time much was trial and error.

    In conjunction with industry leadership, we released our Roadmap to Enterprise Optimization: A Guide to the Impact of Information Driven Field Operations on the Petroleum Corporation in the fall of 2004.  We believe it was the first industry (POSC) supported effort that was not simply research but a ‘bona fide’ action plan or roadmap to success based on industry/other knowledge, standards, economic value and best practices.

    Click for full size Integrated Operations Framework or graphic

    Since then, we have updated this roadmap into an Operational Excellence Platform.  Note that Integrated Operations is a key component.  The platform is a robust detailed solution that is available not just to the energy sector but all sectors identified by Homeland Security as Critical Infrastructure.  These sectors were recently identified as susceptible to hacking by the US government.

    Getting Smart

    Enormous corporate (shareholder) wealth has been destroyed implementing ‘game changing’ technology enabled transformation efforts.  Are we about to do that again, getting smart?  The easy answer is yes, but it does not have to be.

    Roadmap constructs are well understood and provide guidance.  In some models the step by step process provide practitioners with well defined models that can lead to success–defined as on time and under budget performance against Key Performance Indicators (KPIs).

    We are in the process of writing a book, to be released in 2022.  One chapter will define a roadmap for the transformation to ‘Smart’ for a major industrial segment.  As with earlier works, it will focus on the human element aligned with a technology assessment process.

    Get Smart was a comedic TV show spoofing the Cold War ‘spy’ environment of the 1960s.  Getting Smart today may not be a lot different.  The goal under a ‘Cone of Silence‘ was to attain and sustain competitive advantaged achieving superior stakeholder returns.

    Getting smart in 2021 will require a ‘Roadmap to Smart.’  A set of ‘to do’ processes that assures success.

    What is your Organization’s Plan to put Smart Decisioning Making Processes in Place?

     

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.

  • Passing of the Greatest Generation

    Passing of the Greatest Generation

    Salute Ladies and Gentlemen!

    December 7, 1941 was 79 years ago.  A twenty-year-old at the time would be 99 today, almost a centenarian.  My father is 98 and not likely to see 2021.

    We live in a technological age, and despite the pandemic it is relatively easy living for many.  No one is asking our youth to go to foreign lands with the likelihood of not returning.

    If the Twentieth Century has taught us anything, it is that youth has stood up repeatedly despite the dithering of politicians.  Many of this century’s young warfighters continue this proud tradition of defending our nation and our freedoms.

    Born at the dawn of the last century, this generation saw the Great Depression and volunteered for the (hopefully) final global conflict; World War II.  Since Pearl Harbor, our world has changed dramatically and quickly.

    They saw the transformation of the United States into a global Super Power and slogged through some 45 years of the Cold War.  China moved from the backward nation occupied by Japan to its current position.

    The (possible) Chinese saying/curse, “May You Live In Interesting Times” applies to this selfless generation who laid the ground work for our modern world.  On way they invented the transistor in 1947—the foundation of our “Smart Technologies.”

    As they pass from the scene, in the words of Abraham Lincoln at Gettysburg, “It is for us the living, rather, to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought here have thus far so nobly advanced.”

    We must pick up their gauntlet.  In one sense it is a heavy lift; however, those who came before us have lightened our load.

    What Are You Doing to Make Your Parents and Grandparents Proud?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.