The Rapid Response Institute

Tag: scientific method

  • The Transformation of Our Spreadsheet Society

    The Transformation of Our Spreadsheet Society

    “The only rules are the ones dictated by the laws of physics.  Everything else is a recommendation.”  — Walter Isaacson/Elon Musk

    We live in a spreadsheet society.  Columns of Categories of People and Rows of Wants, Needs, and Desires.  This model is too simplistic.  What is needed, and Big Data can provide, is a more sophisticated approach.

    This spreadsheet approach was shown in the recent US elections to be detrimental to the party mainly depending on this view of society.  How many times did we hear pollsters opine that X percent of a certain population was voting for one candidate vs. the other?  The categories of people were divided along traditional lines.  This whole model was shattered on November 2, 2024, and likely some providers of data in this format may no longer be in business for the next cycle.

    However, this belief system is not limited to the political class.  We all can fall into this stereotype.

    For decades we have been taught that data categories can be captured under a Normal Distribution (Bell) Curve of a category and row of interest, i.e., the distribution of the height of a class of male senior high school students or SAT scores.  Another more relevant example, retailers’ pertinacious obsession with the 18–34-year-old group.

    These are fairly simple models, and in this Blogger’s opinion, this representation rarely works anymore, if it ever did.  For example, the resulting retail sector inventory overages as a result of dependencies on this gross data model are not an effective return on shareholder value.  Other recent missteps based on faulty interpretation of the customer/prospect base include the Bud Lite advertising fiasco and the Target marketing failure.

    It is ok to make marketing mistakes, that is going to happen.  The problem with these two (and other) campaigns is the analysis of risk, return, etc. was likely shallow or mathematically primitive.

    There are ways to appeal to new consumers without alienating a large existing base.  It’s all in the big numbers.

    There are several validated models of human behavior and we will discuss two of them herein, Maslow’s Hierarchy and the Relationships, Behaviors, Conditions model.  Some readers may prefer others, and they will most likely work within this construct as well.

    Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs

    This perspective on human needs and subsequent behaviors dates back to the 1940s.  As shown, it consists of five steps from survival to the ultimate Self Actualization.  Note that we adapt this model in two ways.  First, we view this as a growth process as opposed to five discrete steps.  Additionally, the bottom two lower ranges focus mostly on the physical issues we all face.  Fundamental survival and security both physically, mentally, emotionally and spiritually.  Once we have attained, sustained, and believe, we are ready to transition towards an end game, “the realization or fulfillment of one’s talents and potentialities, especially considered as a drive or need present in everyone.”

    Next, we will discuss how we can use this and the RBC solutions to realize specific and measurable value that changes this dynamic.

    The color gradient is meant to reflect that this journey is a process and often each field begins slowly before accelerating into the next range.

    Another perspective of each the Five Platforms consists of a number of smaller steps, which when assessed using Integral Calculus, generates a continuum.

    Relationships, Behaviors, and Conditions (RBC)

    The following is taken from our Cross-Cultural Online Game site:

    The RELATIONSHIPS, BEHAVIORS, and CONDITIONS (RBC) model was originally developed to address issues around cross cultural (international) negotiation processes.   As shown in the figure, Relationships are the focal point of this perspective, reflecting commonality of interest, balance of power and trust as well as intensity of expressed conflict.  Behaviors in this model is defined as a broad term including multi-dimensions and intentional as well as unintentional.  Finally, Conditions are defined as active and including circumstances, capabilities and skills of the parties, culture, and the environment.  Of course, Time is a variable in this model as well.

    Moreover, we have defined Behavioral Economics as “the decision-making model that incorporates societal, cultural, emotions and other human biases into the process as opposed to the classic rational economic actor.

    One key feature of the R B C Framework is its emphasis on interactive relationships while providing an environment for multiple levels of behavioral analysis.   This makes it a useful tool to better understand the new Big Data/AI processes currently unfolding.

    The following graphic is a derivative of our Cross-Cultural Interactions model.  It is a peer reviewed model and is a very good way to calibrate interactions.  Additional information is available on the above link.

    This author has long believed that we do not live in a linear or mathematically deterministic world.  A strong belief in stochastic, matrices drive much of my thinking.  This is reflected in the figure on the left.  The RBC model is the foundation for the five parties and their collective Behaviors.  The resulting Relationships range from one-on-one to small groups or in some cases a wide and varied constituency.

    Note that there is an Ecosystem, (something, such as a network of businesses, considered to resemble an ecological ecosystem especially because of its complex interdependent parts) associated with each entity other that the individuals’ who are the other four.

    This is a wide array of influences on any given individual.  Not easily measured, linearly!

    Scientific Method

    Most readers are familiar with how science has been brought into bolster the position of pundits/advocates of policy, especially related to Covid-19.  The word is tossed around casually, as if most who use it know what they are talking about.  Spoiler Alert–Most Do Not! This includes some with advanced technical or medical bona fides.

    Most think that by using the word ‘science’ this assessment process is out of their wheelhouse.  Previously, we argued that there is a layperson’s approach that works fine for most of our daily needs.  Details can be found on our Blog, They Blinded Me with Science.

    For space reasons, this (guidelines) model will not be repeated here but check it out, it is a short read.

    The late Nobel Laureate, Richard Feynman has a brief and layperson-oriented presentation on the Scientific Method.  He is an excellent teacher, and this clip is informative as well as entertaining.

     “If it disagrees with experiment, its wrong”—Richard Feynman

    Human Input Still Needed

    To be clear, pollsters and marketers will still need to ask questions that will also help structure the model, but the processes posited herein can change the weighting processes driving toward equilibrium and Pareto Optimality (Pareto efficiency implies that resources are allocated in the most economically efficient manner but does not imply equality or fairness) in the final analysis.  In other words, higher quality results.

    These numbers can also be seen as ‘first value’ in a simulation.  Another way to look at this is to the logic the Turing (Bombe) Machine of World War II.  Not setting a number as itself.

    Then AI can take the model to the next level and provide pollsters/marketers with real, modern solutions.  Finally, other uses will most likely be derivatives of this solution.

    The Data Management Problem

    We have identified a general problem as well as three valid and reliable theories.  This is only a nice discussion without relevance with Valid, Reliable, and Timely (VRT) data.  Data Management has been a problem as long as there has been data, stone, paper or electronic.  It has always been an issue.  “Herman Hollerith is given credit for adapting the punch cards used for weaving looms to act as the memory for a mechanical tabulating machine, in 1890.”  Much later (circa 1950s) digital database management schemas emerged.  Today, we are flooded by data of all types including telemetry and deliberately false data/information.

    How can this be effectively managed and how can an executive without a technology background survive much less thrive in such an environment?

    For decades, this author has been involved in almost all computer system development from the yellow punch tape of the 1960s until today.  There have been several constants over that period.

    One of the biggest chronic challenges has been database management; from the acquisition of data through its life cycle until achieve.  An outcome of poor data management has been decisions that have even led to the demise of firms, along with tens of thousands (if not more) of suboptimal decisions at the expense of shareholder value (bottom line/stock price).  What makes the current crop of Big Data/Artificial Intelligence advocates any smarter than those who came before?  Nothing!  Unless some things are changed.

    Our forthcoming book to be published by CRC Press in 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).  The following and other managerial action items are developed in detail.

    • How to determine the quality of the data and its relevance to the decision-making processes.
    • Current Challenges and Trends in Big Data and associated applications.
    • Proposed organization structure such as High Reliability Organization and an understanding of Human Factors to fully realize the full and measurable economic value from these technologies.
    • A full set of Risk Mitigation and a Governance model including Disaster Recovery and Cyber Security.
    • How these technologies are used in Operations, a proposed Management System as well as numerous Case Studies across a number of industries and types of problems.

    The challenge of managing this suite of emerging AI/Big Data is daunting and one that cannot be dodged or delegated.  How organizations respond can be the difference between success or the destruction of shareholder value.

    It’s The Data Stupid

    Our pollsters are collecting and analyzing data that are self-reported.

    • A questionnaire is developed which may or may not reflect bias.
    • These questions are posed to potential respondents (phone and otherwise) who may detect a voice tone, and/or the subject may intentionally lie or mislead.
    • Finally, who answers the phone these days?  This skews the data sample and perhaps badly.

    Data collected in this manner is not subject to rigor and most likely wrong or skewed.  Finally, data collected in this manner is not suitable for the new Big Data Analytic models.

    One Proposed Better Way

    There are probably several much better ways to address political and marketing problems.  While no data source is perfect, we posit the following way to use the US Census data.  We can treat it as a function of columns and rows yet apply sophistical data analysis algorithms.

    Categories

    As mentioned, we tend to clump or stereotype individuals into preconceived ‘buckets.’  Over time, these buckets have taken on an aura of, it’s the only way.  Basically, the construct that ‘we have always done it this way.’
     
    This is no longer a viable business or social model.  Our world is much too dynamic for the older static approach to targeting the likelihood of a specific demographic to perform in a preconceived prescriptive manner.
     
    One place to start looking is at the United States Census data.  This data set consists of 57 profiles, The United States and each State and Territory.  Each Profile is divided into several Sub-Categories, Populations and People, Income and Poverty, Education, Employment, Housing, Health, Business and Economy, Race and Ethnicity, and Nearby States.  Each Sub-Category is further detailed.
     
    We might even call the data in these Categories/Sub-Categories, Conditions from the RBC model.  Each Platform in Maslow’s Hierarchy can be considered a Category with infinite Sub-Categories.  Likewise, Conditions.

    Rows

    We have identified the following three variable model as representative of human Behaviors–Wants, Needs, and Desires.  We have previously reviewed some of this in our Blog, Want – Like – Need  in 2019.  These can also be mapped to Behaviors in both the RBC and Maslow models.
     
    Details and a short list of some variables follow.  These definitions can overlap, and readers will note that there is some duplication across all three classes below.  Researchers use different definitions for each class.  This does not detract from the fundamentals of Rows selected for analysis.  
    The point is to develop a list of behaviors that is indicative of the problem to be solved.

    Wants

    For purposes of this model, we define Want as something that an individual might seek as part of normal life, i.e., and ice cream cone.

    Needs

    Those fundamentals of life, especially as defined in Maslow’s Hierarchy, platforms one and two.

    Desires

    Different from Wants, Desires are perhaps beyond his/her reach.  Coveting a promotion and willing to back stab co-workers to get it rather than compete on merit.

    Sources of Wants, Needs, and Desires

    We have suggested that a starting point for Categories is the very large US Census database.  No such singular source exists for these behaviors and there is an overlap in definitions.  This list gives readers a starting point.  In no particular order, this non-comprehensive includes:

    The list goes on, but readers get the point.  A large row of behaviors will help develop a robust model.

    And The Answer Is

    While we know that the solution to the political pollster and/or marketing manager is not a definitive answer, we can do better than we are.  We know how to management data in this environment and we have models for assessing and making decisions based on results.  As we move from simple, small data set, linear models to robust Big Data Analysis, we need to consider a few additional action items.

    Scientific Method

    Do not forget to use this methodology to define and refine your problem statement.

    Model Limits

    • While we are using a significant number of independent and dependent variables, we are not trying to solve world hunger.  Therefore, we need to put limits on (Bound) the model.  This is an age-old problem we first addressed in 2015, Bounding the Boundless.
    • From a scientific perspective, “Across all science, modelling is our most powerful tool, as models let us focus on the few details that matter most, leaving many others aside.  Models also help reveal the typically far-from-intuitive consequences when multiple causal factors act in combination.”
    • Additionally, “Getting AI/ML/DL systems to work has been one of the biggest leaps in technology in recent years, but understanding how to control and optimize them as they adapt isn’t nearly as far along.  These systems are generally opaque if a problem develops in the field.  There is little or no visibility into how algorithms are utilized, or how weights that determine their behavior will change with a particular use case or interactions with other technology.”
    • Moreover, “the European Union this week (2021) issued guidelines for AI — specifically including ML and automated decision-making systems — limiting the ability of these systems to act autonomously, requiring ‘secure and reliable systems software,’ and requiring mechanisms for ensuring responsibility and accountability for AI systems and their outcomes.”

    Diminishing Returns

    Since we are not boiling the ocean, at some point continuing with the model will result reduced performance.  According to Economists, “The law of diminishing returns says that, if you keep increasing one factor in the production of goods (such as your workforce) while keeping all other factors the same, you’ll reach a point beyond which additional increases will result in a progressive decline in output.  In other words, there’s a point when adding more inputs will begin to hamper the production process.”

    “Data is just a way of codifying information. Any data gathered should be relevant to a problem, otherwise useless data clouds the results of a query.  If there are too many degrees of freedom, you are begging for a spurious correlation.”

    Readers may be familiar with, “The Pareto Principle, also known as the 80-20 rule, is a concept that many have adopted for their life and time management.  It is the idea that 20% of the effort, or input, leads to 80% of the results or output.  The point of this principle is to recognize that most things in life are not distributed evenly.”  This may be a satisfactory approach to this application.
     

    Need for a Data Scientist

    This approach may require the use of a professional data scientist to realize a valid and reliable outcome.  “A data scientist is an analytics professional who is responsible for collecting, analyzing and interpreting data to help drive decision-making in an organization.  The data scientist role combines elements of several traditional and technical jobs, including mathematician, scientist, statistician and computer programmer.  It involves the use of advanced analytics techniques, such as machine learning and predictive modeling, along with the application of scientific principles.  As part of data science initiatives, data scientists often must work with large amounts of data to develop and test hypotheses, make inferences and analyze things such as customer and market trends, financial risks, cybersecurity threats, stock trades, equipment maintenance needs and medical conditions.”

    More

    This is not a definitive list and is provided to give readers an understanding of what it will take to move forward with the Big Data Analysis model.  Appropriate research and problem definition may reveal additional or fewer requirements.

    Demise of Linear

    The Linear broadcast approach to selling or changing minds is not the relevant delivery vehicle for new micro-data analysis.  Directed notifications is better although practice this with care.  This last election cycle, I received a text, words to the effect, “can we count of your vote for X?”  I was very much against X and no reason was offered to help me change my mind.  Get with the program and don’t be so lazy developing your spiel or message.

    Elon Musk’s ‘Algorithm’

    This is an interesting approach to problem solving that can have relevance to the issue discussed herein.  Can we reduce complexity without losing data fidelity, “The accuracy, completeness, consistency, and timeliness of data.  In other words, it’s the degree to which data can be trusted to be accurate and reliable.”

    His Five Step Process:

    1. Question Every Requirement

    2. Delete Any Part or Process You Can

    3. Simplify and Optimize

    4. Accelerate Cycle Time

    5. Automate

    Readers may ask, how does this fit in this discussion?  We bring this to your attention because it may help identify and bound the problem to be solved.

    Also, perhaps of some value is his, “idiot index, which calculated how much more costly a finished product was than the cost of its basic materials.  If a product had a high idiot index, its cost could be reduced significantly by devising more efficient manufacturing techniques.”  A survey, analysis, etc. are all products and may benefit from this index model.

    Final Thoughts

    Most financial professionals will tell you that spreadsheets must foot (the sum of all rows must equal the sum of all columns).  Can societies or multiple societies foot their columns and rows?  Most likely not and if that is the case, data from this model is not valid or reliable.

    Most likely, this type of data will take the form of a Scatter Diagram (without correlation?) with some clumps or areas of intensity of a specific category or group of categories.

    This may not be an approach that many will take; however, it is clear that the original premise of this piece, that we live in a spreadsheet society is no longer appropriate.  “If you always do what you always did, you will always get what you always got.” ― Albert Einstein.  It will be interesting to see how future polling is conducted.

    Non-Linear Speed Ahead

    Sometimes pieces like this summarize a conclusion.  In the high-pressure environment, we are not concluding anything.  We are carving a way forward–A Growth Model of the Data Economy.

    As of this writing the incoming US administration appears to be moving at hyper speed across a broad front.  Moreover, AI in particular exploding.  Those interested in keeping up may want to to Subscribe | Generative’s AI Newsletter (not an endorsement but seems be a good daily source of information).  Mostly, just keeping up will not be enough, if top quartile success is the goal.

    It will be interesting to see the role the family of Artificial Intelligence (AI) software solutions play in this field going forward.

    Micro-targeting is certainly a place for Big Data to shine.  That said the problem to be solved and the confidence in the validity and reliability of the data must ascertained. 

    Society faces some real challenges with how we manage, analyze and decide using data.  This is but one example where old methods no longer produce valid and reliable results.  How will you and your organization go forward?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the recently published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be published by CRC Press in 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making.  This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

    Copyright © 2024 The Rapid Response Institute LLC.  All rights reserved.

  • No Free Lunch

    No Free Lunch

    President George H.W. Bush famously quipped, “Read my lips: No new taxes.”  He went on to raise taxes and many believed this contributed to the reason he did not serve a second term.

    Another famous saying, in 1971 an automobile engine oil filter manufacturer heavily advertised their product using the threat, “You can pay me now or pay me later.”  While maintenance can be deferred and often is in economic challenging times, eventually the bill comes due.

    Free Electricity?

    We are repeatedly told that since electric automobiles do not use gasoline/diesel that our cost of that fuel will go to zero.  YEAH, life is good with no gas lines!

    But where does the electricity come from, who pays for it and how is it economically delivered to our vehicle?  And then there is the time to charge and vehicle range.  Finally, there is the cost of the required infrastructure and who pays for it.  Moreover, such a dramatic change in our energy landscape will take decades, not the few years many promise.

    According to one source, “A collaborative investigation by The Guardian and German newspaper Die Zeit, meanwhile, found that 90 percent of the projects ostensibly validated by American company Verra were in fact “worthless” and delivered nothing close to the carbon sequestration that companies.”

    Hype or Hoax?

    We are all used to hype–buy this automobile and you will be more successful.  Additionally, the world is awash in scams, disinformation, lies in attempts to perpetrate a hoax.

    Where does Net Zero and the demands we accomplish the impossible immediate and we can never do enough fall on this curve?  We are told that policy and economics are following “The Science.”  But are they?

    Science can be defined as the observation, identification, description, experimental investigation, and theoretical explanation of natural phenomena.”  This search for knowledge is ‘Never Settled.’  No less than Galileo showed that fallacy that as we sail spacecraft to Mars an other celestial ‘spherical and not flat’ worlds.  More recently, the settled science of Covid-19 appears to be not quite so static.

    The Scientific Method can be used by lay people as well as scientists  Previously we presented a simple but logical approach to test technical suppositions as their applicability to a given problem.   Use it to see where your organization sits on the Hype–Hoax continuum.

    How is your organization making significant decisions in a world full of contradictions?  After all, their are no free lunches.  If it sounds too good to be true …

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the just published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our recent blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • Valid and Reliable?

    Valid and Reliable?

    The first thing a statistician, data scientist, medical researcher, engineer, social scientist or anyone depending on data is to assess its quality.

    As of this writing, the recent release of the Durham Report suggests that the FBI was lax in their assessment of the alleged Russian influence in the 2016 presidential election cycle.  This resulted in the reporting to the nation and the rest of the globe what appears to be Fake information.  Did it tip the scales on the election and subsequent events?  Not for this pundit to say, albeit this will be the subject of discussion (including some conspiracy theories) for years to come.

    Our case is more straightforward.  Organizations of all types private and public routinely make critical decisions based on poor quality data (including gasps in data).

    The first tenet of quality is to assess the validity and reliability of said data.  Validity refers to the accuracy of the measurement but does NOT determine whether the right process was evaluated.  Reliability is a function of data consistency (can it be reproduced?).

    Error Management

    There are two types of data errors.  Not surprisingly labeled Type I and Type II.  Statistician define Type I errors as providing a ‘false positive’ and Type II a ‘false negative’ result.  One way to asses data is the use of Hypothesis Testing.  Assessment often begins with a hypothesis about a set of data.

    • A ‘null hypothesis‘ makes the assumption that the data is a function of pure chance.
    • The ‘alternative hypothesis‘ assumes the data set is impacted by a non-random cause.

    Moreover, a data set can have multiple hypotheses.

    Data is also classified as Primary or Secondary.  Primary data is that which was collected directly by the data scientist/organization.  Secondary is that which as obtained from a third party.

    This researcher considers Secondary data as more likely to contain errors and needs additional scrutiny.  It appears the FBI data on election interference was Secondary data.

    According to a 2022 Harvard Business Review article, “It costs 10 times as much to complete a unit of work when the data is flawed in any way as it does when the data is good.”  In 2016 HBR reported that according to IBM, decisions made on poor quality data cost $3.1 trillion.  In 2021, the research firm Gartner reported that poor data quality costs the average firm $12.9 million.  For the Fortune 500 alone that is over $3.225 trillion.

    For interested readers, the cited Gartner article provides a set of 12 actions organizations can take to improve their data quality.

    Decision Support

    We must recognize that data quality is an issue and while we can take steps to improve it, the problem is ubiquitous and most likely growing.  We must make the assumption that ALL data has either Type I or Type II errors and act accordingly.

    One approach is the use of the Scientific Method.  This model is developed for the average lay person and can used for business decisions as well as in everyday life.

    Moreover, ALL data sets will be incomplete or have gaps.  Statistical and other decision support tools can deal with this issue.  Finally, the human injects bias into the process as well.

    Coda

    The running joke, “If it is on the Internet, it must be true,” is widely known as satire.  That said, we often trust data due to its source or the fact that a so-called expert is the author, commentator or recommender.  As with many things in life a healthy dose of ‘data’ skepticism is in order.

    What steps is your organization taking to assure decision-making processes are based on high quality data?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the just published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our recent blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • Bogus

    Bogus

    According to Cambridge Dictionary the title term is defined as, Not real, or existing only in order to deceive people.”

    We live in a world when lies are tossed around with impunity.  Politician lie, school boards withhold from parents and the news is decried as fake by both sides of the political isle.  How does one sort fact from fiction and knowledgeable option from uninformed or deliberately disinformed BS?

    Passing The Smell Test

    This is the ‘Gut Check’ feeling–does it make sense?  Usually, our instincts or first impressions will have some credence.  Not that further investigation is not required but humans and other animals such as dogs can tell the ‘lay of the land,’ almost without thinking.

    Doubting these feelings can often lead to a less than optimum result.  So, Trust Your Gut is not a bad thing.

    At one point in the Covid-19 saga, one government employee suggested that if one mask made sense, multiple masks would make better sense.  Widely ridiculed, this nonsense faded quickly.  This followed after the celebrity photographed wearing a knitted mask.

    Lies, Damn Lies & Statistics

    We have been told all manner of things regarding Covid-19.  First, many would get it with few if and symptoms.  Later, it was defined as the modern day scourge–another plague.  We were told the Science was changing.  Really?

    Massive daily numbers of ill and dead statistics flooded our media.  Armageddon was here.  Then a funny thing happened on the way to destruction.  We took off our masks and most of us did not die.

    Let us not forget the Scientific consensus regarding Climate Change.  NO dissenting views are tolerated.

    The Scientific Method, long heralded as the gold standard in research and interpreting data is often completely blown off when it gets in the way of an agenda or the often stated ‘narrative.’

    What’s A Person To Do?

    Social media and the 24/7 news cycle can be overwhelming.  Yet that need not be the case.

    We have always had to hold competing and conflicting views in our head.  Nothing has changed.  We just have a plethora of so called facts to assess.

    We do not need fancy computers or AI to determine what makes sense and what is just idiotic.  Right or Left, we must make good life decisions and walk away from the Scams and Lies perpetrated on us every day.

    This pundit is rich beyond his wildest dreams.  The recipient of millions for dead relatives I did not know I had, brought to my attention by African Princes.  More recently, contacted by young women who offer me a massive business line of credit.  Lets not forget the business opportunities that require not investments of money or time but will handsomely reward me.  If only I would provide them my banking information so they know where to send the funds.

    I especially like the one where if I click on a link, a so-called vendor I have never heard authorizes Accounts Payable, or the Voice Mail posted to my Outlook. Give me a break!

    Yea, right!  All of this does not pass my Smell Test.  In fact, it all stinks, so trust your (smart) Gut.  If it is too good to be true, it probably isn’t!!

    How are you protecting yourself and your business from online thieves?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor for an in press book (to be released in Spring 2023) titled, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give us a shout.

  • Sun Sets in the West: Science or Commentary?

    Sun Sets in the West: Science or Commentary?

    One newscaster recently used the metaphor of the sun setting in the west as settled science so contrary views were not newsworthy.  His argument–Fairness is Over Rated!  What?  One wonders whether this is true for those who believe the world is round or for those in the Flat Earth Society?

    Yet most political commentary and views are not so apparent.  Politicians and pundits constantly refer to ‘so-called’ settled science only to have new information surface.  Moreover, we know how to test theories using the Scientific Method.  Sadly, outside of formal academic style research this tool does not appear to be in vogue these days.

    Sun Set

    We learn the truism that the sun rises in the east in the morning and sets in the west (slightly seasonally adjusted).  In fact, this calendar and timing have been known for several millennia.  This process is measurable and repeatable.  This phenomenon is supported by empirical data taken from experimentation and observation.  The data is valid (accurate) and reliable (repeatable).  Therefore, it follows that the knowledge of the sun setting in the west is based on science.

    In My Opinion . . .

    The 24/7 news cycle bombards us all with “Breaking News,” often several days after its occurrence.  In their rush to get the ‘scoop‘ facts are not available at the time, overlooked or deliberately mangled or omitted.  We are told that such and such is settled fact.  And then it isn’t!

    When one puts forth a position that while may be based on the certainty of one’s perspective on a matter, it often does not meet the test of the Scientific Method.  By definition, this type of statement is a viewpoint or a sentiment.  However, it can take on the mantle of science but is really Pseudo-Science as the hypothesis cannot be proved false.

    One’s perspective or cognitive bias on a given subject can lead to the development of an organizational, policy, political or social agenda designed to sway thinking and thus support the development and implementation of initiatives designed to operationalize said ideas.  Proponents often couch their position as “The Science.”

    Contemporary Decisions

    Our world is awash with significant economic and social challenges.  Whether ESG, Covid-19, Climate Change or Inflation everyone has an opinion with data and/or studies to support their positions.

    Consumers/Policy Makers/Decision Makers of these information will have to assess their value.   How valid and reliable are the positions taken and what is the uncertainty and risk associated with their implementation?

    The basis of all decisions include a level of incomplete or incorrect data.  This phenomenon is where the military phase, “No plan survives first contact with the enemy” comes from.

    So, it is with the confrontations of these four global issues.  A robust discussion of the various points-of-view and their basis is necessary.  Why is this not happening?

    When statements that the ‘consensus’ of vast majority of experts/scientists is blah blah blah are made, this should be a major red flag.  The statement that the ‘sun sets in the west’ has a significant body of knowledge behind it.  There is a level of uncertainty with most other prognostications.

    Louis Pasteur is credited with the statement, “Chance favors the prepared mind.”  This is just as true today as when he was developing vaccines for the anthrax and rabies scourges of his day.

    The best decisions are made even when controversial such as with Pasteur’s vaccines.  Eisenhower’s decision about D-day had similar attributes of uncertainty and risk.

    The United States, indeed the world has embarked on a multi-trillion dollar effort to solve the so-called existential threat of global warming.  Politically charged, one wonders if any of the proponents and doomsayers are basing their positions on actual science.

    How DARE THEY push false agendas that cost so much and will destroy economies.  How DARE THEY!!

    Are your organization’s decisions based on science or just someone’s opinion?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more information regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give us a shout.

  • THE SCIENCE: The Reason We Need STEM

    THE SCIENCE: The Reason We Need STEM

    Almost every day, we hear that “The Science” says . . .  We are told Covid-19 and Climate Change are based on The Science and as such we must accept that expert analyses as ‘settled.’  Then something changes and once more the science police demand we accept their new interpretation.

    The near-term result: confusion and lack of trust, even acrimony.  The Science, as presented by the media, politicians and others is a static solution.  As we follow The Science, we are told we must adjust but not necessarily why.

    There is no reason to trust to fate or our political betters (call themselves elites).  The Science is not that mysterious.  The term is meant to deride most of us, including degreed scientists like this author.  Might want to ask those pontificating to define the ‘Scientific Method.’

    Set at the beginning of the 20th Century Space Race, the movie, Hidden Figures brought broad attention to the mathematical genius of a group of then unknown women.  They were instrumental helping the fledgling NASA achieve the early goals of manned space flight, including the lunar landings.  They understood The Science better than others.

    On the Shoulders of Giants

    With the social deck stacked against them, these women rose above the norms of the time and accomplished feats unknown and certainly unexpected by contemporaries.  Perhaps more importantly, they demonstrated that math and science is not reserved for elites.  They educated all of us.

    We live in a technological age and told shortly everything will be ‘Smart.’  The workforce will change, and our view of the world will be dramatically different.  Moreover, many of us will no longer be relevant or even employable.  Balderdash!

    Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math (STEM)

    STEM is the anacronym for the set of technical knowledge embodied in these ‘hard’ disciplines.  Collectively, they form the backbone of our 21st Century economy and social advancement.  While liberal arts disciplines are important, STEM knowledge is critical if we are to hold the ‘experts’ accountable.

    Increasingly, ‘soft’ or social skills are also seen as important.  The old concept of the ‘Nerd’ is giving way to the technologist with human empathy.

    The emerging generation(s) will need STEM expertise as well as soft skills.  In some ways this is no different than previous times when the Titans of Industry changed their world.  Building on new technologies, they built business.  A successful business requires a knowledgeable workforce that can monetize technology.

    The titans this time are everyday men and women, even juveniles.  Knowledge of STEM subjects is dictating individual success or failure.  Get on the STEM train.

    Role of R B C

    We have routinely commented on the Relationships, Behaviors, Conditions model first put forth in the 1990s.  From a previous blog, “One of the basic tenets of the RBC Framework is the general construct that Relationships cannot be determined a priori.  The well-used example is a man and a woman sitting on a bench at a bus stop.  Are they married, siblings, coworkers, friends or simply two people waiting to catch the same/different bus?

    Their relationship cannot be known directly.  However, their Behaviors will provide insight into how they relate to each other.  Romantic behavior may indicate marriage, dating, an affair etc. They may still be coworkers but most likely are not strangers.

    The third dimension, Conditions (environment) can be considered the stage upon which behaviors play.”

    One can make the case that STEM is a condition or situation.  In other words, our technology environment.  The behavior of individuals with these skill sets will determine the relationship these individuals have with their peers, customers/business ecosystem and economy/society in general.

    Finally

    We spend a lot of time, quoting “The Science.”  Most vocalizing the term are not scientists or even qualified to understand its basic tenets.  But taken as gospel because of some perceived authority, i.e., politicians, newscasters, celebrities and bureaucrats among others.

    This scientist suggests that STEM is necessary to assure the emerging generations understand “The Science” and how it can actually be used to benefit mankind.  And, oh yea and make a buck!

    Where does STEM fit in Your Organization’s Strategy?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.

  • Crisis Management: The Need for Internal Consistency

    Crisis Management: The Need for Internal Consistency

    Attributed to former US Senator and Governor Rhode Island, Lincoln Chafee, “Trust is built with consistency.”  Moreover, from statistics we know that Internal Consistency, “measures whether several items that propose to measure the same general construct produce similar scores.”  The follow on definition statistical reliability, “is the consistency of a set of measurements or measuring instrument, often used to describe a test.”

    In our July 20, 2021 post, Are Your DEI Wheels Spinning? we posited that positive behavioral change as a result of a new situation/condition must result in relationships built on trust.  Without said trust, positive behavioral change is unlikely.

    Situational Change and Differences of Opinion

    Responsible individuals, organizations, and even industrial sectors can disagree.  In fact, ‘academic argument’ is a key component of the Scientific Method and science is never settled.  Moreover, most situations are fluid and those in crisis tend to be agitated.

    That said, crisis management techniques demand well defined processes with identified owners.  Moreover, data must be shared and meet the dual tests of ‘valid and reliable.’  There is no room for sloppiness or data bias as was found in more than one occasion during the Covid-19 pandemic.

    Some argue that Covid-19 data issues are unique and due the global nature of the problem.  However, we are told that Big Data is the future or actually is now.  Solving Climate Change, enabling driverless electric vehicles and so on and so forth.  Based on current performance, it would appear we have a ways to go.  Despite statements to the contrary it is possible implement decision support systems quickly and with success.  This is actually not a new process.

    Street Cred

    Often viewed from the perspective of the colloquial.  One attains credibility based on perceived performance and not necessarily as a function of actual accomplishment.  Usually, highly visible this Influencer can hold sway in larger ways than are actually justified.  However, in their orbit these individuals hold the trust of their followers.  Those holding contrary views will lack trust from this group but may hold significant trust from others skeptical of said leader.

    Both sides can loose trust and cred if ‘holes’ appear in the story line, narrative or agenda.  If the internal consistency of each position is weak, internal group pressures may ultimately destroy any impression of belief and trust.

    This is somewhat where the world is with the established Public Health authorities.  Many hold the perception of perhaps actual misinterpretation, analysis and presentation of the Covid-19 data sets.  The counter position lacks credibility as well.

    R B C

    We have been a proponent of the Relationships, Behaviors, Conditions model for almost thirty years.  Simply put, when situations or conditions change, human behavior changes and vis-à-vis.  This directly impacts on the relationships between individuals or groups, even societies.

    Large, controversial conditional movements, often with poor and even incompetent supporting data can lead to the erosion and even the complete breakdown of trust among affected parties.  Emotional, hyperbole, draconian and biased positions can accelerate the breakdown of trust.

    Once this bond is broken, rebuilding trust is a very lengthy process.  Rebuilding trust is an act of leadership!

    What is your organization doing to keep trust intact?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.