The Rapid Response Institute

Tag: Recession

  • It’s The Holiday Season–Maybe?

    It’s The Holiday Season–Maybe?

    At least in the United States we will soon be kicking off the Holiday Season with all the craziness it brings.

    Starting with the US Thanksgiving, followed by Black Friday (often practiced the entire month of November) many will prepare for Santa Claus then on into the New Year’s celebration.  Many religions have holy days or periods at this time of year as well,

    This 45 days or so of consumer ‘over buying’ is a bellwether for retail economic health and as well as the overall economy.  Soon the media will be counting the daily cash registers.  Economists and other pundits will will tell us all that the state of the economy depends on the success of the gift giving season.

    A Difficult Economy

    We all know the challenges most families are facing.  Inflation, high gasoline prices, supply chain shortages, etc.  We have documented some of these issues in earlier editions of this blog.  We covered such areas as:

    As of this writing, the Tech Giants are laying off thousands along with hiring freezes.  Major retailers appear not to be hiring as much seasonal help as expected.

    This suggests the major economic market may not be as robust as hoped.

    Soft or Hard?

    Economists and others talk about a Hard or Soft Landing when it comes to the down side of economic cycles.  Some believe the markets have already priced Federal Reserve (the Fed) micro policies into the price points.  For example, the shift from “Zero Interest Rate Program and Quantitative Easing to raising rates and Quantitative Tightening.”  Others suggest that not all factors are yet priced into financial markets.

    Over simplified: A Hard Landing results in a Recession.  A Soft Landing avoids a Recession.

    As of this writing opinions appear to be split with some believing the the Soft scenario and other convinced we are in for a very Hard recession in 2023.

    Going Forward

    Retail numbers this holiday season will be a significant signal for the 2023 economy.  This pundit with over five decades as an economic participant believes a Hard Landing is more Likely than a Soft one.  By December 26, 2022 we will  have a better idea of the first two quarters the next calendar year.

    What are you doing to assure that your family and your organization have the agility to weather the possible coming economic storms?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.

    There is a vast body of work regarding Hard v Soft economic Landings.  A good starting source for those interested in addition information is Investopedia.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more insight regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our recent blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give us a shout.

  • Hierarchy of Team Needs in Challenging Times

    Hierarchy of Team Needs in Challenging Times

    First it was Covid-19 and now a Recession?  Is a Global Military Conflict on the Horizon as well?

     

    Social, economic and personal pressures continue to mount.  There is already evidence of Reductions in Force, (RIF) aka layoffs are underway or planned.  With consumers stretched to the max, higher interest rates, equity markets in retreat and a struggling real estate environment, one wonders what the holiday season will bring.

    Cross Cultural (Diverse) Teams

    Ronald Reagan is credited with saying, “Recession is when your neighbor loses his job. Depression is when you lose yours.”  Would that it would be that simple.

    As we have addressed in the series on several occasions organizational teams consists of different types of people with diverse background and perspectives on life.  More importantly team members can be at different levels of maturity (both personally and organizationally).  We will address this in more detail.

    Maslow’s Hierarchy

    Many are familiar with Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs.  While a simple physiological (group level) safety model and as my colleague Rob Jones discusses in his new book, A Hole In Science–Grammar of The Sociological Problem.  He takes a very sophisticated and well thought out approach to addressing this group dynamic problem.  For our purposes in the blog, his in-depth analysis is really for professionals and not the casual reader.  However, for those interested, I highly recommend this newly released publication.

    Released in the early 1940s, the hierarchy consists of these five levels of needs that humans progressively move through (these levels were take directly from the aforementioned linked article and should be treated as direct quotations):

    1. Physiological–Air, water, food, sleep, health, clothes, and shelter, etc.
    2. Safety–Include personal and emotional security (e.g., safety from abuse), financial security, and wellbeing.
    3. Belongingness and Love–Family connections, friendship, and intimacy.
    4. Esteem–According to Maslow, there are two subtypes of esteem.  The first is esteem reflected in others’ perceptions of us.  That is, esteem in the form of prestige, status, recognition, attention, appreciation, or admiration.  The second form of esteem is rooted in a desire for confidence, strength, independence, and the ability to achieve.
    5. Self-Actualization–Examples include the acquisition of a romantic partner, parenting, the utilization and development of one’s talents and abilities, and goal pursuit 

    Maslow and others continued to advance the model, but readers can get the gist of it from these definitions.  Moreover, the following short (2.17 min) video covers this model very effectively.

    We can look at Maslow through the lens of a Maturity Model.  For example, certain Teams and/or Individuals might be higher up the hierarchy than others.

    This may change team interactions.  Usually, such models reflect the maturity of the lowest member.

    With the stress of an economic setback, some members may move from of a position of feeling good to one of Safety if jobs or personal cash flow are threatened.

    Guidelines for Going Forward

    In one sense,, teams composed of individuals in different phases of the Hierarchy are no different than other diverse teams.  Teambuilding techniques such as found in our Cross Cultural Serious Games are good tools to teach team member about the state of mind of their team members and/or competitors.

    We have been through tough times before and we will all get through this one as well.  Be sure to learn from history so as not to repeat it.

    How are you helping your family and organization deal with challenging times?

    Note: The definition of a recession is a political football and this is a blog about organizational excellence and not politics.  Investopedia has a good and generally accepted definition of the term (recession) and it is provided herein for completeness.  Readers can decide for themselves as to  its relevance to their individual situation.

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more insight regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our recent blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give us a shout.

  • Innovation: The Key to the Global Future

    Innovation: The Key to the Global Future

    Henry Ford, the Founder of Ford Motor Company is famously attributed to this statement.  “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.”  In other words, most of us think linearly.

    One wonders if this line of reasoning is the best way during the current situation.  Perhaps, non-linear mindsets are more appropriate.

    Challenges

    Currently, many define an existential threat as Climate Change.  Additionally, the global economy, the War in Ukraine, bad actors and other ills make the daily news.  We are also told the time is of the essence.  However, it appears the window will close before the appropriate linear responses can come online.

    As the pandemic unfolded in early 2020, we penned a piece on the role innovation would play addressing the global scourge. We put forth some points we believed salient at the time such as:

    • The rise of remote work
    • The ability to scale quickly, i.e., vaccines, ventilators, et. al.
    • Changes in Clinical Trial protocols

    From the same blog, this pundit has long advocated that, “the use of knowledge enabled by technology can reduce project cycle time dramatically.  It can also significantly reduce project cost as well.”

    As we look back on that period, the collective global ‘we’ accomplished a lot.  A plethora of useful materials were developed and published by all manner Subject Matter Experts (SME) as well as those with ‘life knowledge.’  We chose to capture and repost materials (Covid-19 Business Continuity Resources) that could of use to those business executives struggling with work force issues.  These materials remain available.

    Regrettable, the term SCIENCE was terribly misused, including by medical professionals and professional scientists, all of whom should have known better.  This discussion is further developed in our blog, They Blinded Me with Science.   For interested readers, the piece develops the concepts of science and pseudo-science as well as a brief methodology all can use to help them assess what they are being told about major issues.

    Actual Science has moved humanity out of the caves and into our modern world.  Likely, it can help us address current and future global challenges.  The proven innovative use of the Scientific Method is one path forward.

    SpaceX – NASA

    Elon Musk is in the news for a number of reasons.  He is perhaps one of the best know billionaires.  In the opinion of this pundit, the partnership between his company SpaceX and NASA appears to be one of the most productive Public-Private Partnerships (PPP).  Perhaps this good or best practice could be emulated by others seeking new ways to innovate.

    Realistic Energy Transition

    Energy Transition is all the rage with all manner or organization jumping on board.  Somewhat reminds me of the late 1990s dot.com era.  According to Wikipedia, after the ensuring bust, “the NASDAQ-100 had dropped to 1,114, down 78% from its peak.”  Makes one wonder that this might not be the first rodeo for the latest ‘change the world shinny object.’

    Previously, we noted that the replacement of a major highway ramp in Houston, TX USA is slated to take two years.  Additionally, according to McKinsey, “The goal is to install 500,000 public chargers—publicly accessible charging stations compatible with all vehicles and technologies—nationwide by 2030.”  Message: infrastructure development takes a certain amount of time.

    Also from McKinsey, “Capital spending on physical assets for energy and land-use systems in the net-zero transition between 2021 and 2050 would amount to about $275 trillion, or $9.2 trillion per year on average, an annual increase of as much as $3.5 trillion from today.  To put this increase in comparative terms, the $3.5 trillion is approximately equivalent, in 2020, to half of global corporate profits, one-quarter of total tax revenue, and 7 percent of household spending.”

    As of this writing the global stock markets appear to be in freefall.  Some believe, including this author that a Recession is imminent.  This begs the obvious.  How will this linear effort be paid for and what will be the return on this huge investment?

    There must be a better way.

    Innovate, Innovate, Innovate

    In his recent book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet noted climate change advocate, Bjorn Lomborg expresses concern regarding linear type scenarios and investments being made reduces climate change to Net Zero.

    He argues that regardless of efforts made such as described herein, we will not defeat global warming.  The temperature will rise anyway.

    If this is the case, then the ROI from a $275 trillion dollar commitment may in fact be negative.  This might spell economic disaster at a sustained level.

    Lomborg makes the case that innovation is key.  His perspective seems to be more on university led research supported by governments.  There is a role for government to fun basic research and many have for decades.

    Entrepreneurs have been advancing humankind for hundreds of years.  With proper market signals, we can expect a new generation to rise to the occasion addressing the energy transition and ultimately climate change.

    The author is aware of a number of ‘Green’ efforts underway to encourage the development of new commercial technologies.  While not advocating for investment in an Incubator or Accelerator, it seems reasonable that start-up organizations addressing these challenges be encouraged.

    What Role Does Innovation Play in Your Firm’s Approach to Climate Change?.

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.

    Disclaimer, the author has no personal or business relationship with Bjorn Lomborg or his publications other than reading and commenting on his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give us a shout.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.