The Rapid Response Institute

Tag: Global Energy Mentors

  • Crippling Green

    Crippling Green

    “Yes, hope is a strange thing.  Peace at last.  But at what price?”
    — Khaled Hosseini

    Great Societies have been lost in the past–a number of times.  There is no reason to believe our current crop is immune!

    Ariel Durant, the co-author of the 11 volume tome, The Story of Civilization is credited with, “A great civilization is not conquered from without until it has destroyed itself from within.”

    The United States is currently engaged in a great climate civil war.  One one side there are those who advocate for expensive and expansive economic and social investment in so-called Climate Change.  Climate Change Skeptics, often derided by the aforementioned group as Climate Deniers are those who question the Scientific Consensus and the cost and return on the investment to become Net Carbon Zero.  By the way, science is never settled.

    From the observer’s perspective, there is a long term effort to shut down debate, as is typical in today’s society largely by name calling, shaming and even threats.  Dissenters seemingly risked their professional reputation, loss of grants, even safety, and more.

    And Now Questions

    Funny thing happened on the road to Net Zero.  Questions began to be raised about the efficacy of renewables, and their Total Lifecycle Cost.  Moreover, the heavy metal cost of ecological damages of mining were raised and are now under scrutiny.

    The Let Them Eat Cake Strategy

    Transitions, especially Transformations are painful.  Based on Joseph Schumpeter’s Creative Destruction, “The incessant product and process innovation mechanism by which new production units replace outdated ones,” transformation is a linchpin of Capitalism.  Now, some believe socialism is the future, history does not prove their point.  Are any to turn in the Smart Phones for the old black dial model tethered to a wall?

    However, when this natural process is driven by the ‘heavy hand’ of non-economic actors, perturbations in the process can cause warps in the economic space time continuum.  Some examples of overreach include:

    Agriculture

    Some argue that, “Agriculture accounts for 16 to 27% of human-caused climate-warming emissions.”  Nitrous oxide (N2O) is the named culprit (according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change this chemical accounts for 6% of greenhouse emissions).

    It is reported that in the Netherlands agricultural sector system manure is high in nitrous oxide.  Emotions are apparently running high between Dutch farmers who see a targeted 30% reduction in livestock heads and the government whose position seems to be this is an “unavoidable transition.”  Jobs are at risk!

    Gasoline

    It seems the President of the United States is celebrating high gasoline prices as part of “an incredible transition” to move away from fossil fuels.  As with the Dutch case, this seems to place the biggest burden on the so-called ‘little guy.”

    Truckers

    We all remember the trucker protests in Canada and the United States in early 2022, mostly regarding Covid-19 restrictions.  Around the world there was a strong level of solidarity.

    This sector is also not immune to Climate Change driven initiatives.  From one source there are two key considerations:

      • The proposed 2027 new emissions regulations for diesel-powered trucks, and
      • The 2030 goals from some states and their aggressive objectives for zero-emissions vehicle sales.

    One might project similar (Covid-19 driven) responses to these new mandates.  This might be another major negative impact to supply chains for all sectors.

    Electric Vehicles

    The US Secretary of Transportation has suggested that everyone would benefit from an EV.  At the time of his statement (October 2021), the average cost of an EV was $55,676 while a compact car was $25,240 and and SUV was $34,122.

    By this pundits calculation (at $4 a gallon), break even for the SUV is 5,389 gallons of gasoline at 20 miles per gallon.  As mathematicians will say, it follows that break even is almost 108,000 miles of driving.  Years of driving for most of us and what shape will the battery be in at that point.  While some argue the maintenance costs are less for EV, most consumers are driven by out-of-pocket buying decisions.  Then there the disposal costs of EVs at end of life (see Other Blogs below for details).

    Fracing

    Perhaps one of the more emotional fossil fuel development process is Fracing (not Fracking by the way).  Some believe the damage to the environment from fracing is the greatest of any human endeavors.

    On the other hand, the value from fracing includes:

      • The shale revolution mad the United States self-sufficient in oil and gas for the first time since 1947
      • In 2022, the US is the largest exporter of LNG (liquified natural gas)

    Given the current geopolitical situation, easy access to low-cost traditional energy sources is at least near time high value.

    There are many other areas of controversy regarding this issue.  More than likely both sides will continue to make their points and emotions will continue to play a major role.  There will be Winners and Losers over the next few years as this debate plays out.  Honest scientific debate can mitigate the emotional and political agenda at play.

    Are Green Initiatives Making the Problem Worse?

    Per the NBC piece aired on September 20, 2022, illegal gold mining in Peru not only releases mercury into the ecosystem but adds to environmental carbon when the soil is disturbed.  This makes this pundit wonder if all the heavy metal strip mining to fuel EVs will do the same in addition to its other environmental problems (see Heavy Metal Rocks below)?

    Moreover, this issue about strip mining and carbon release has been known for a long time.  In 1977 the peer reviewed scholarly article, Soil fungal populations and soil respiration in habitats variously influenced by coal strip-mining addressed this issue.

    Likewise, NBC reported on illegal gold mining in Peru in 2019.   Point being, this information is not new nor is The Science newly discovered.

    Unintended Consequences run amok?  Are lithium batteries destroying the planet?

    And the Winner Is?

    No one!  If we do nothing, we are told the oceans will rise and temperatures will become unbearable causing all manner of weather driven catastrophes as well as increased intensity and frequency of forest fires.  On the other hand, spending the multiple trillions of dollar will enrich the (very) few at the cost of economic collapse for the many.

    Lose–Lose Deal.  Either way our world ends or our economies end.  Is there a difference?

    According to Merriam-Webster, “A pyrrhic victory is a victory that comes at a great cost, perhaps making the ordeal to win not worth it.  It relates to Pyrrhus, a king of Epirus who defeated the Romans in 279 BCE but lost many of his troops.”

    Decisions–Decisions

    So Global Society is faced with two choices.  The earth is in physical peril unless we spend malevolent amounts of money as fast as possible.  Or, as a result of economic destruction on a global scale if this level of spending adds little if any value.  Then we will all live in poverty or worse.  Either way, Human Extinction is one end game proclaimed by many.  The very definition of a Dilemma.

    According to Merriam Webster, one definition of Hobson’s Choice is, “The necessity of accepting one of two or more equally objectionable alternatives.”  Not a great place to find oneself.

    The ancient Romans apparently made poor decisions as a mature and wealthy society.  It cost them dearly.  Are we now?

    How are You and Your Organization Assessing the Risk of Investing in Climate Change (Conventional Wisdom) Scenarios or Alternative Approaches?

    Other Recent Relevant Blogs

    These blogs in this series address this particular issue in greater detailed.  Together, they form a more complete picture of the author’s position on relevant components discussed here as well aligned subjects.  In reverse chronological order:

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.

    Disclaimer, the author has no personal or business relationship with Bjorn Lomborg or his publications other than reading and commenting on his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Second Disclaimer, Ali Daneshy was interviewed for the referenced Forbes article on Fracing.  This author knows Mr. Daneshy and worked with him for many years at Halliburton.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give us a shout.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

  • What We’ve Got Here is Failure to Communicate!!

    What We’ve Got Here is Failure to Communicate!!

    “The single biggest problem in communication is the illusion that it has taken place.”

    George Bernard Shaw

    The 1967 movie Cool Hand Luke, popularized the term, “What we’ve got here is failure to communicate.”  The American Film Institute lists this statement as number 11 out of the top 100 movie quotes.  The basis of this exchange is the prisoner in a Florida prison camp, refusing a guard’s continual demands.

    Clash of Titans

    In our 1994 presentation, Organizational Conflict and Dispute Resolution we positioned Diversity as a Function of Culture.  Another way to look at this is a function of ‘tension at the margin.’  We defined this term as, “Stress between competing bodies—the engine of power.”  The idiom was derived from the Pressure Differential in powerful weather events such as hurricanes.  The blog went on state, “Humans constantly deal with this phenomenon and sometimes the stress caused by this dichotomy can seem to be overwhelming.  Sometimes, it seems this powerful internal engine races without a governor.”  Sometimes, cultural clashes seem to have these same titanic properties.

    Cultural Governance

    This pundit has a somewhat different opinion on ESG than typically featured in the media.  This framework is only a set of standards that responsible firms have been using for years.  We addressed this issue in June 2005 in the piece, The Corporate Bar is Raised! which is a chapter in our 2011 book, Essays on Business and Information II: Maximizing Organizational Performance.

    The final paragraph in the piece states, “The linkage between robust embracement of strong governance and shareholder rights coupled with transparency and dispatch when things go badly will provide strong positive sustainability.  The corporate bar is raised, but isn’t this where it should have been all along?”  How is this any different than current ESG models?

    Governance sets a framework as well as an ethical methodology for advancing competing positions.  In one sense collaboration is the ultimate goal as the intent of the whole is to maximize success.  Governance models that are not aligned with that goal are sub-optimal.

    R B C

    There is a great deal of discussion about Energy Transformation today.  It is not only a political football but many consulting and technology company are pushing their products and solutions.  No doubt some of dubious value.  All parties have an agenda!

    The word transformation suggests that the current Condition or environment demands changes in Behavior.  The result of these changes drives new Relationships (RBC) among economic actors.

    It is one thing to move from wood and dung as fuel to the coal that powered steamships and now other fossil fuels that power almost everything as well as the feedstocks for almost everything the modern world uses and social transformations.  There are major differences between the two Differential Pressures.

    Energy Transformation is heavily dependent on hard infrastructure.  The ability to economically replace gas stations with plug in sites, the time it takes to ‘refuel’ a mobile machine, and so forth and so one.  This is a decades long process and not something that can be done on a simplistic political timeline.

    Social Transformation is not easy either.  However, the process mostly requires changing collective mindfulness.  This process can unfold rather quickly.

    For example, events of Pearl Harbor, 9/11 as well as the adoption of ‘Smart phones,’ political party positions, weather events, etc. can transform thoughts in weeks, months and even days.  In this sense it is easier to accomplish.

    Fin

    Change happens when all parties feel like there is something in it for them.  Where exogenous or endogenous, new Conditions can drive better Behaviors and thus new Relationships.  However, individuals need to know the value they will derive.  A failure to communicate need not be fait accompli.

    Do You Know if You Are Communicating with Your Friends, Colleagues and Others?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more information regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give us a shout.

  • Sun Sets in the West: Science or Commentary?

    Sun Sets in the West: Science or Commentary?

    One newscaster recently used the metaphor of the sun setting in the west as settled science so contrary views were not newsworthy.  His argument–Fairness is Over Rated!  What?  One wonders whether this is true for those who believe the world is round or for those in the Flat Earth Society?

    Yet most political commentary and views are not so apparent.  Politicians and pundits constantly refer to ‘so-called’ settled science only to have new information surface.  Moreover, we know how to test theories using the Scientific Method.  Sadly, outside of formal academic style research this tool does not appear to be in vogue these days.

    Sun Set

    We learn the truism that the sun rises in the east in the morning and sets in the west (slightly seasonally adjusted).  In fact, this calendar and timing have been known for several millennia.  This process is measurable and repeatable.  This phenomenon is supported by empirical data taken from experimentation and observation.  The data is valid (accurate) and reliable (repeatable).  Therefore, it follows that the knowledge of the sun setting in the west is based on science.

    In My Opinion . . .

    The 24/7 news cycle bombards us all with “Breaking News,” often several days after its occurrence.  In their rush to get the ‘scoop‘ facts are not available at the time, overlooked or deliberately mangled or omitted.  We are told that such and such is settled fact.  And then it isn’t!

    When one puts forth a position that while may be based on the certainty of one’s perspective on a matter, it often does not meet the test of the Scientific Method.  By definition, this type of statement is a viewpoint or a sentiment.  However, it can take on the mantle of science but is really Pseudo-Science as the hypothesis cannot be proved false.

    One’s perspective or cognitive bias on a given subject can lead to the development of an organizational, policy, political or social agenda designed to sway thinking and thus support the development and implementation of initiatives designed to operationalize said ideas.  Proponents often couch their position as “The Science.”

    Contemporary Decisions

    Our world is awash with significant economic and social challenges.  Whether ESG, Covid-19, Climate Change or Inflation everyone has an opinion with data and/or studies to support their positions.

    Consumers/Policy Makers/Decision Makers of these information will have to assess their value.   How valid and reliable are the positions taken and what is the uncertainty and risk associated with their implementation?

    The basis of all decisions include a level of incomplete or incorrect data.  This phenomenon is where the military phase, “No plan survives first contact with the enemy” comes from.

    So, it is with the confrontations of these four global issues.  A robust discussion of the various points-of-view and their basis is necessary.  Why is this not happening?

    When statements that the ‘consensus’ of vast majority of experts/scientists is blah blah blah are made, this should be a major red flag.  The statement that the ‘sun sets in the west’ has a significant body of knowledge behind it.  There is a level of uncertainty with most other prognostications.

    Louis Pasteur is credited with the statement, “Chance favors the prepared mind.”  This is just as true today as when he was developing vaccines for the anthrax and rabies scourges of his day.

    The best decisions are made even when controversial such as with Pasteur’s vaccines.  Eisenhower’s decision about D-day had similar attributes of uncertainty and risk.

    The United States, indeed the world has embarked on a multi-trillion dollar effort to solve the so-called existential threat of global warming.  Politically charged, one wonders if any of the proponents and doomsayers are basing their positions on actual science.

    How DARE THEY push false agendas that cost so much and will destroy economies.  How DARE THEY!!

    Are your organization’s decisions based on science or just someone’s opinion?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more information regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give us a shout.

  • Reports of Fossil Fuels Demise Premature? – Renewables Remain Marginalized?

    Reports of Fossil Fuels Demise Premature? – Renewables Remain Marginalized?

    Who would have thought that in the summer with temperatures over 100 degrees Fahrenheit the wind would stop blowing.

    According to NOAA, “The main cause of wind is a little surprising.  It’s actually temperature.  More specifically, it’s differences in temperature between different areas.”  With a major Atmospheric High Pressure parked over a large geographic area, no wonder the wind does not blow.

    Texas Heat

    July 11, 2022 was a true scorcher across the state of Texas.  According to the Dallas Morning News, “Wind speeds have fallen to extremely low levels, and that means the state’s fleet of turbines is at just 8% of their potential output.”  This resulted in this and other Texans receiving an email from the local electricity provider asking for help cut back on power use.

    Texas is major producer of wind energy with over 150 wind farms–total capability of 30,000 MW (2020).  This amounts to approximately, 33% of the state’s power–more electricity produced than any other state.  So in the midst of a major heat wave, less than 25% of the state’s (potential) power generation was effectively available.

    This Level of Unreliability is Unacceptable.

    Previously, we addressed this issue after the Texas Freeze of 2021.  It does not seem like this problem is going away.  Guessing, that like the freeze, lack of energy availability will continue to be mitigated by fossil fuel power production!

    German Cold

    According to the University of Illinois Chicago, “Patients who died because of cold temperatures were responsible for 94% of temperature-related deaths.”

    It gets cold in Germany in the winter.   While the temperature range may vary slightly, Germans need heat every winter.  Despite climate (warming) change, this is not likely to change this coming season.

    The news has reported that Germany has depended on Russian gas for some time.  With the hostilities in Ukraine, that energy source is in jeopardy.  This has caused the country to look to other, reliable sources.  Coal.  Framed as “painful but necessary,” the country had to restart coal based power production.

    Perhaps not desirable for some politicians and prognosticators, Germany has no choice.  Many will be happy with this decision on Christmas Eve.  Near term survival vs. long-term possibilities.

    Clean Fossil

    One day in the 1980s this writer left his hotel in Los Angeles for a morning run.  A few minutes later, I stopped and returned to my room.  The air was so thick with pollution I felt my heath would be better served by doing nothing as opposed to running outside.

    Flash forward to November 1987 when this writer was in Beijing, China for almost a month.  The air was so extreme that frankly my nose contained coal particles simply by breathing.  Moreover, Houston, Texas at the time had similar issues whereby the air actually ‘smelled’ in the industrial area.

    Today, the United States does not have these issues at least at this level (not true with other nations).  The US has ‘cleaned’ its act up so to speak.  Its rivers no longer catch on fire, as they once did.  All of this is the result of better stewardship of carbon based fuels.

    According to the US National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), “Coal-fired electricity generation is cleaner than ever.  NETL’s research shows that a new coal plant with pollution controls reduces nitrogen oxides by 83 percent, sulfur dioxide by 98 percent, and particulate matter by 99.8 percent compared to plants without controls.”

    It is possible to responsibly use carbon effectively, efficiently and cleanly.  This is missed by both sides of the climate debate.

    Demise–NOT!

    The humorist Mark Twain is credited with saying, “The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.”  One can make the same case about fossil fuels.

    According to one source, today there are 1.446 billion motor vehicles on the planet.  Reportedly, just under 284 million are registered in the United States.  Our ‘share’ represents less than 20 % of the global fossil fueled propelled transportation.  Note that this does not include aerospace and the multitude of critical uses of carbon based feedstocks.

    According to the US Energy Information Administration, only 12% of energy was provided by renewables in 2021.  Fossil fuels in aggregate provided 79% of the basket of energy sources.  According to another credible data provider, “The share of wind and solar is rising constantly (+1 point in 2021), reaching 10.7% of the global power mix.”

    This slow growth is over approximately 20 years.

    When the wind does not blow, sun does not shine or solar panels are covered with snow, power comes from dependable fossil fuels.  Moreover, according to experts, none of this linear climate change political response will most likely make a difference anyway.

    Energy Transformation is an uninvestable amount with uncertain returns.  In other words, high and undocumented risk.  So what are we doing?

    How is Your Organization Managing the Risk associated with the Energy Transformation?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more information regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give us a shout.

  • The Power of Synergies

    The Power of Synergies

    An oil and gas industry group, the U.S. Energy Workforce & Technology Council recently released a survey which stated, “companies with a higher percentage of women in executive positions have a 34 percent higher total return to shareholders than those that do not and companies with ethnic diversity on their executive team are 25 percent more likely to have above-average profitability and 27 percent likelihood of outperforming peers in value creation.”  This is a powerful statement!

    Frankly, this should come as a surprise to No One.

    On the Shoulders of Giants

    While not the first time, a well known diversity/inclusion synergy occurred during World War II on the American side.  The Tuskegee Airmen were a group of fighter pilots largely composed of Black men whose mission was to protect bombers (most manned by White men) whose mission was to help defeat Nazi Germany.  According to the US National Park Service, “The airmen flew over 180 combat sorties (missions) without losing a single bomber.”  While many held their prejudices, one cannot deny the success of the “Red Tails” which led to some minds being changed.

    In another high impact case, Vivien Thomas an African American medical lab assistant to a white physician, was instrumental in the pioneering work at the dawn of cardiac surgery.  Together, they developed a procedure to save infants with the Blue Baby Syndrome.  Mr. Thomas is credited as playing a pivotal role in this and other surgical processes.  Likewise, this history has been made into a movie, ‘Like Something the Lord Made.”

    Such a list would be remise if it did not include the women of Hidden Figures.  In an era of segregation (ethnic and sex), these Black women were entrusted with the human ‘computing’ of the complex mathematics necessary at the beginning of the United States (NASA) efforts to launch astronauts into space, ultimately the moon as well as the Space Shuttle.  One can surmise that President Kennedy’s commitment to get to the moon by the end of the decade could not have been met without this team.  Watching the movie, Hidden Figures is worth your time.

    There are many other case studies where a diverse group of people have worked together and significantly contributed to the advancement of human kind.  There is no reason to believe this will not continue.

    Governance

    Post Enron and other corporate malignancies, the question of good corporate governance needed to be addressed.  One approach was The Sarbanes Oxley Act of 2002.  Largely, this act spoke to financial management and reporting.

    However, another phenomenon was noticed that same year.  “McKinsey & Company in conjunction with the Global Corporate Governance Forum conducted a study and found that over 75% of over 200 fund managers would value a stock at a higher price point if the company could demonstrate it had strong governance in place.  Moreover, the study also revealed that for western markets, firms with strong shareholder rights averaged 12-14% higher stock prices.”  This 20 year old study is a powerful statement as well.

    We discuss this point in more detail in our June 21, 2022 blog, Why Corporate Initiatives Fail.  Interested parties are invited to review that material for more details regarding governance models and similar issues such as ESG.

    Capitalizing on Synergy

    Cambridge Dictionary defines synergy as, “the combined power of a group of things when they are working together that is greater than the total power achieved by each working separately.”  This definition says it all!

    Individuals such as the Tuskegee Airmen and Hidden Figures ‘flew’ the way for today’s successful team synergies.  Not just the energy sector but all sectors are benefiting greatly from the work of pioneers and can enjoy the financial and social results of diverse teams.

    There is clear evidence that well run and governed organizations add higher value to their stakeholders.  These organizations take advantage of all the talents at their disposal.  Therefore, as my math professor used to say, ‘it follows that synergic firms are leaders in their sectors.’

    How is Your Organization Capitalizing on the Power of Synergies?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    Interested parties can also find more information at the Tuskegee Airmen Inc. (TAI) website.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give us a shout.

  • Why Corporate Initiatives Fail

    Why Corporate Initiatives Fail

    According to the Cambridge Dictionary, one definition of initiative is. “A new plan or action to improve something or solve a problem.”  In corporate parlance this often translates into yet another short-term and often politically correct effort to demonstrate forward motion/social citizenship.  Often forgotten faster than the evening news cycle as new searches for performance take their place.

    Organizations of all types, public, private, profit and nonprofit etc. tend to announce new initiatives with great fanfare and pronouncements about ‘transforming our culture.’  So why do they continuously fall short of expectations?

    According to a Forbes Survey released just before the pandemic, “When participants in our survey were asked to create a list of reasons for (change programs) failure, ‘insufficient budget’ was cited by 23% and ‘insufficient time’ by only 17%.  Instead, participants ranked poor communication (62%), insufficient leadership and support (54%), organizational politics (50%), lack of understanding of the purpose of the change (50%), lack of user buy-in (42%) and lack of collaboration (40%) as the most critical issues.”

    In aggregate, the article suggests a total failure rate of70%.  This percentage level was first put forth in the early 1990s and is accepted by many as still correct today.  While empirical evidence is sketchy, none-the-less, the perception of failure remains high.

    This tracks with other project failure statistics this author has seen over the years.  Yet, all of these failure attributes are human and therefore, manageable and correctable.

    Today’s Buzz

    The economy is always front and center.  More so today given Inflation and Supply Chain problems.

    In this blogger’s opinion and in order of priority other key issues include Diversity, Inclusion and Equity (DEI), Climate Change and Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG).  While different organizations may face other challenges, these Four tend to dominate the news.

    Often issues overlap or compound, thus exponentially amplifying the impact on society.  For example, the electric vehicle (EV) is touted as a lynchpin to ‘fixing’ the Climate Change issue.  However, supply chain issues currently limit battery production and one can surmise this is a long-term problem and not simply current shortages or delays.  If this is correct, meeting desired climate metrics is problematic.

    Diversity, Equity and Inclusion

    Perhaps the most emotional of the Big Four, DEI seeks to level the so-called playing field for all regardless of ethnicity, gender or behavioral preferences.  Almost all organizations have a DEI Initiative underway.  Yet, they seem to be stalling much to the frustration of advocates.

    According to one source, “The DEI industry is dominated by what scholars call ‘personnel managers,’ employees in human resources.”  This is also the observation of this pundit as well.

    LinkedIn profiles include, Chief Diversity Officers, any number of DEI consultants and others carrying similar titles as well as commercial organizations offering DEI products and solutions.  Much like the plethora of Safety Culture ‘experts’ and tools that emerged after Deepwater Horizon offshore drilling rig disaster in 2010.

    From a recent Korn Ferry article, “Experts say companies must treat DE&I as they would any other business issue and use data analytics to understand why things aren’t working.”  This author interprets this to mean that DEI must be incorporated into ‘the way we do business‘ or part of the organization’s culture.

    No longer a simple initiative, the next Chief Diversity Officer may be a Caucasian male or even redundant.  Then, DEI will no longer be seen as a separate and different department.

    Energy Transformation

    The president of the United States recently said, ““ it comes to the gas prices, we’re going through an incredible transition that is taking place that, God willing, when it’s over, we’ll be stronger and the world will be stronger and less reliant on fossil fuels when this is over.”  As many countries implement Climate Change policies, this transition is economically rough to say the least.

    And with no guarantees that these efforts will actually reduce the earth’s temperature decades out, is this a Big Bet with major consequences to all of us.  In our last blog, Innovation: The Key to the Global Future we addressed the economics in detail.  Interested readers should refer to that piece.

    An extensive assessment was developed by Bjorn Lomborg in his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.  His credentials include the fact that he believes in global warming and is not a ‘denier’ as the phase goes.

    Caution to the lemmings jumping off the Energy Transition cliff, this is the ultimate initiative as it is political by nature.  Fickle by nature, political winds can change quickly and with that the value proposition.

    To some extent we are seeing this already as governments seek to address spirally energy costs, i.e., Germany restarts coal-fired power plants.  We might see more of this after the US midterm elections in November.

    ESG

    This initiative is treated as if it is new.  Well run companies have always enjoyed higher equity value.

    In 2011, we published our White Paper, Asset/Equipment Integrity Governance: Operations–Enterprise Alignment.  In that paper, we quoted, “During that period (2002), McKinsey & Company in conjunction with the Global Corporate Governance Forum conducted a study and found that over 75% of over 200 fund managers would value a stock at a higher price point if the company could demonstrate it had strong governance in place.  Moreover, the study also revealed that for western markets, firms with strong shareholder rights averaged 12-14% higher stock prices.”

    We previously addressed ESG in detail and how it fits in our Relationships, Behaviors, Conditions (RBC) Framework  (risk mitigation).  The operative word is Relationships.  This will include every stakeholder, so the impact can be substantial.

    For some organizations, ESG is new and the source of value in the annual Letter to Shareholders.  For others, business as usual incorporates those premises.  Begs the question, which organization would you like to invest in?

    Concluding Thoughts

    In this corporate animal’s experience, initiatives are seen as short-term events.  Leadership’s ‘rubber stamp’ does not carry gravitas.  Employees often ‘wait them out’ and go just about their business.  Others create media splash which dies quickly as well.  Only when change is codified in the organization’s culture do new approaches add sustained value.

    Initiatives fail because neither the board room nor the factory floor see them as adding value.  Fads driven by political winds, activists or social desires come and go.

    Strong governance is a proven value add.  A diverse workforce can add value but climate change as currently practiced will most like fail and fail Big and Expensive.  Society has addressed similar economic issues and will again.

    Are Your Organizational Initiatives Sustainable or Simply Fads?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.

    Disclaimer, the author has no personal or business relationship with Bjorn Lomborg or his publications other than reading and commenting on his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give us a shout.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

     

  • Innovation: The Key to the Global Future

    Innovation: The Key to the Global Future

    Henry Ford, the Founder of Ford Motor Company is famously attributed to this statement.  “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.”  In other words, most of us think linearly.

    One wonders if this line of reasoning is the best way during the current situation.  Perhaps, non-linear mindsets are more appropriate.

    Challenges

    Currently, many define an existential threat as Climate Change.  Additionally, the global economy, the War in Ukraine, bad actors and other ills make the daily news.  We are also told the time is of the essence.  However, it appears the window will close before the appropriate linear responses can come online.

    As the pandemic unfolded in early 2020, we penned a piece on the role innovation would play addressing the global scourge. We put forth some points we believed salient at the time such as:

    • The rise of remote work
    • The ability to scale quickly, i.e., vaccines, ventilators, et. al.
    • Changes in Clinical Trial protocols

    From the same blog, this pundit has long advocated that, “the use of knowledge enabled by technology can reduce project cycle time dramatically.  It can also significantly reduce project cost as well.”

    As we look back on that period, the collective global ‘we’ accomplished a lot.  A plethora of useful materials were developed and published by all manner Subject Matter Experts (SME) as well as those with ‘life knowledge.’  We chose to capture and repost materials (Covid-19 Business Continuity Resources) that could of use to those business executives struggling with work force issues.  These materials remain available.

    Regrettable, the term SCIENCE was terribly misused, including by medical professionals and professional scientists, all of whom should have known better.  This discussion is further developed in our blog, They Blinded Me with Science.   For interested readers, the piece develops the concepts of science and pseudo-science as well as a brief methodology all can use to help them assess what they are being told about major issues.

    Actual Science has moved humanity out of the caves and into our modern world.  Likely, it can help us address current and future global challenges.  The proven innovative use of the Scientific Method is one path forward.

    SpaceX – NASA

    Elon Musk is in the news for a number of reasons.  He is perhaps one of the best know billionaires.  In the opinion of this pundit, the partnership between his company SpaceX and NASA appears to be one of the most productive Public-Private Partnerships (PPP).  Perhaps this good or best practice could be emulated by others seeking new ways to innovate.

    Realistic Energy Transition

    Energy Transition is all the rage with all manner or organization jumping on board.  Somewhat reminds me of the late 1990s dot.com era.  According to Wikipedia, after the ensuring bust, “the NASDAQ-100 had dropped to 1,114, down 78% from its peak.”  Makes one wonder that this might not be the first rodeo for the latest ‘change the world shinny object.’

    Previously, we noted that the replacement of a major highway ramp in Houston, TX USA is slated to take two years.  Additionally, according to McKinsey, “The goal is to install 500,000 public chargers—publicly accessible charging stations compatible with all vehicles and technologies—nationwide by 2030.”  Message: infrastructure development takes a certain amount of time.

    Also from McKinsey, “Capital spending on physical assets for energy and land-use systems in the net-zero transition between 2021 and 2050 would amount to about $275 trillion, or $9.2 trillion per year on average, an annual increase of as much as $3.5 trillion from today.  To put this increase in comparative terms, the $3.5 trillion is approximately equivalent, in 2020, to half of global corporate profits, one-quarter of total tax revenue, and 7 percent of household spending.”

    As of this writing the global stock markets appear to be in freefall.  Some believe, including this author that a Recession is imminent.  This begs the obvious.  How will this linear effort be paid for and what will be the return on this huge investment?

    There must be a better way.

    Innovate, Innovate, Innovate

    In his recent book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet noted climate change advocate, Bjorn Lomborg expresses concern regarding linear type scenarios and investments being made reduces climate change to Net Zero.

    He argues that regardless of efforts made such as described herein, we will not defeat global warming.  The temperature will rise anyway.

    If this is the case, then the ROI from a $275 trillion dollar commitment may in fact be negative.  This might spell economic disaster at a sustained level.

    Lomborg makes the case that innovation is key.  His perspective seems to be more on university led research supported by governments.  There is a role for government to fun basic research and many have for decades.

    Entrepreneurs have been advancing humankind for hundreds of years.  With proper market signals, we can expect a new generation to rise to the occasion addressing the energy transition and ultimately climate change.

    The author is aware of a number of ‘Green’ efforts underway to encourage the development of new commercial technologies.  While not advocating for investment in an Incubator or Accelerator, it seems reasonable that start-up organizations addressing these challenges be encouraged.

    What Role Does Innovation Play in Your Firm’s Approach to Climate Change?.

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.

    Disclaimer, the author has no personal or business relationship with Bjorn Lomborg or his publications other than reading and commenting on his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give us a shout.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

     

     

  • Want – Like – Need

    Want – Like – Need

    Years ago, as part of a never-ending series of company reorganizations, a team of our change management consultants headed to the ‘field’ to interview users.  Upon their return, they presented an extensive list of technology investments deemed necessary to remain competitive.

    Their list focused on technology and not business concerns.  Wondering, I asked who they interviewed.  Proudly, they proclaimed the “field engineers.”  When queried–did they talk with district managers, regional engineers and others with P&L or other managerial responsibilities, the answer was “no.”

    This very expensive process by a major professional services organization simply generated a wish list of junior employees.  It was what they thought they WANTED.

    In our current jargon, “cool stuff.”  Needless to say, none of these projects were funded.  Wasted time and money by those not familiar with our business!

    Today, we are driven to LIKE everything!  CRM systems demand input before we have even procured the product or service.  Log on to any given website and the request to complete a survey will hit you before you read the first line.  Five stars or thumbs-up emojis appears to be the goal.

    Do wants and likes add value?  Perhaps a like is a statement of preference, but perhaps the consumer wants the digital driven question to just go away without the hassle of someone begging for a higher ranking like.  Fibbing to surveys has become a national pastime.

    Business should be most concerned about what a prospect or returning customer NEED.  What pain point or problem does your product/service solve?  If you can’t answer that question, no amount of wants and likes will add to your bottom line.

    I may want a hamburger and go to a fast food restaurant with lots of likes.  However, if I am in a hurry and their preference is clearly to move cars via the drive-through faster than those of us waiting inside, my need to eat quickly will not be met.  I may leave without my meal or most likely not respond to a survey seeking likes.  Then never return!

    That lost customer will never surface in any analysis—not even one star.  Enough of those responses and the business will be in jeopardy and management my not even know why.  Collecting likes should never be a Key Performance Indicator (KPI).

    Finding the Pain

    In a recent Global Energy Mentors leadership meeting, an investment group recounted their business model as one that focused on identifying organizational ‘pain’ points.  Once a specific pain was articulated, the search for new technologies that would address/resolve that pain was undertaken.

    This model flies in the face of Steve Job’s, “A lot of times, people don’t know what they want until you show it to them.”  That may be and sometimes unknown needs are uncovered.

    However, in critical infrastructure sectors where failure is not be an option because it can be very expensive solving a known need is usually most important.  Without exception, this entrepreneur’s success has been focusing on addressing industrial client known pain points.  As an example, our EVPM modeling process demands input from customer groups.

    In this blog series, we have referred to successful change management that comes from addressing the—what’s in it for me question.  From a customer perspective; freeing ‘me’ from known pain is often more valuable than alleviating pain I did not know I had.

    Does Your Value Proposition Solve a Need, Address a Want, or Simply Generate a Like?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to other materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    You can contact the author more information as well.

    End Notes

      http://globalenergymentors.org/

      https://www.helpscout.com/blog/why-steve-jobs-never-listened-to-his-customers/

      https://therrinstitute.com/brand-your-digital-oilfield-culture-internalize-its-transformation/