Eagles Soar, others flock.
Post the US election, it seems that many on the losing side are circling the wagons and pointing to the ‘other guy’ to blame for a series of political sins. Like fish in a school, the belief seems to be that the crowd provides an element of protection. But is this belief borne out by observation?
Experience suggests that the masses can be figuratively slaughtered while the lone leader prevails.
Keep Doing What You’re Doing
Paraphrasing the Brown/Einstein quote about insanity, ‘many are doubling down on past behaviors that have already cost success.’ Yet we humans keeping going back to the old playbook. Partially, because we do not know any other options. Shame on those without a well thought out strategy (with options) because as we know, ‘No plan survives initial contact.” If your political party just lost a major nationwide election, why would the first post-election reaction be to do more of the same? Not all are taking this path, but based on the public media it seems many are.
We often refer to the concept of Groupthink, “A process through which the desire for consensus in groups can lead to poor decisions. Rather than object to them and risk losing a sense of group solidarity, members may remain silent and lend their support,” when speaking about group dynamics. Let me posit that this sociological model does not address the dynamics of the losing side in the recent Presidental election.
The Abilene Paradox
The “Abilene paradox refers to a situation wherein no member of a group decides to contest a decision taken by the group, believing it to be the consensus of everyone, when in reality, none of the group members agree with the decision. However, none of them speak up for the fear of going against the wishes of others and end up regretting not speaking up in time.”
To this pundit, the Abilene paradox more closely mirrors what may have been happening to the losing presidential candidate team than many other social and behavioral models.
The following short video provides a good and concise presentation of this methodology and its origin. Suggest readers take a few minutes to watch it.
Early Signals from the Markets
Note: This paragraph is the opinion of this writer and not the result of a formal data analysis or use of any methodology. Also, it does make one wonder if the results of the US Presidental election were borne out exclusively for the reasons many pundits are putting currently putting forward.
Thanksgiving is the informal kick off for the holidays or Christmas. It seems that the atmosphere this year is more upbeat, even joyous than in the recent past. For example, starting with the so-called Black Friday (the day after Thanksgiving), “E-commerce was the biggest winner over the weekend, showing the strongest growth year over year. U.S. online sales for the weekend were $41.1 billion, and online spending set new records on each of the five days, according to data from Adobe Analytics.” Despite persistent inflation, these sales figures are extraordinarily strong.
Moreover, advertisers seem more willing to use the phase, “Merry Christmas” more than in the recent past.
Perhaps, the outcome of the election excited the population, but maybe there is an additional factor to be considered.
Retail marketers must develop champaigns well in advance of the purchasing season. Decisions regarding inventory volume and key ‘in’ styles and toys etc. must be made. Moreover, festivities, parades and other market Pull Drivers as well Push (when appropriate) must be developed, funded and implemented.
Bottom Line–these efforts should be seen as a major Leading Indicator. This suggests that retailers and other consumer/hospitality sectors had supporting data many months ago, i.e., Big Data Analytics.
Hypothesis, while very important, the personalities in the election may have played a lesser role than many believe. The rising tide lifted the boat of the candidate(s) that could sense this underlying movement higher better than those that did not pick up on these vibrations. This is an important leadership trait.
This does not diminish the role of candidates and positions taken. We simply make the case that there is a broader social and economic movement afoot.
This writer only has access to public information and the opinions of others on this subject. There may be other processes and behaviors taken by the presidential parties (not publicized) that can either add or detract from the arguments herein. Additionally, some public behaviors such as campaign budgets and spending habits are known and likely contributed to the wining process as well as the losing operation.
Final Thoughts
In the coming years many books, research papers and other documents will be written about the 2024 US Presidental election. Some will add real value to the discussion, yet sadly many will seek to justify positions taken. Others will label scapegoats.
Likely, history will show that this election is but a single yet major impact event of a very large social transformation whose final impact we cannot yet surmise.
To be successful in this new environment, individuals and the groups they represent only gain actionable and factual knowledge when strict and structured methodologies are use based on strong data foundations. In this piece, the November 15, 2024, edition The Transformation of Our Spreadsheet Society and others (previously published and future editions), we attempt to participate in these early discussions.
What have you learned from the outcomes of November 5, 2024?
For More Information
Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein. They are provided for education and entertainment only.
See our Economic Value Proposition Matrix® (EVPM) for additional information and a free version to build your own EVPM.
The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page. Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor of the recently published book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.” His focus is on Operational Technologies.
We are also pleased to announce our forthcoming book to be published by CRC Press in 2025, Navigating the Data Minefields: Management’s Guide to Better Decision-Making. This is a book for the non-IT executive who is faced with making major technology decisions as firms acquire advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).
“People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962). For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game. You can contact this author as well.
For more details regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg and his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.
Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our blog, Crippling Green.
For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts. If interested, check it out and give me a shout.
