At least in the United States we will soon be kicking off the Holiday Season with all the craziness it brings.
Starting with the US Thanksgiving, followed by Black Friday (often practiced the entire month of November) many will prepare for Santa Claus then on into the New Year’s celebration. Many religions have holy days or periods at this time of year as well,
This 45 days or so of consumer ‘over buying’ is a bellwether for retail economic health and as well as the overall economy. Soon the media will be counting the daily cash registers. Economists and other pundits will will tell us all that the state of the economy depends on the success of the gift giving season.
A Difficult Economy
We all know the challenges most families are facing. Inflation, high gasoline prices, supply chain shortages, etc. We have documented some of these issues in earlier editions of this blog. We covered such areas as:
- Team Diversity when members are in different economic situations
- Reliving the 1970s Stagflation and its Economic Turmoil
- Price Controls and Fuel Shortages
As of this writing, the Tech Giants are laying off thousands along with hiring freezes. Major retailers appear not to be hiring as much seasonal help as expected.
This suggests the major economic market may not be as robust as hoped.
Soft or Hard?
Economists and others talk about a Hard or Soft Landing when it comes to the down side of economic cycles. Some believe the markets have already priced Federal Reserve (the Fed) micro policies into the price points. For example, the shift from “Zero Interest Rate Program and Quantitative Easing to raising rates and Quantitative Tightening.” Others suggest that not all factors are yet priced into financial markets.
Over simplified: A Hard Landing results in a Recession. A Soft Landing avoids a Recession.
As of this writing opinions appear to be split with some believing the the Soft scenario and other convinced we are in for a very Hard recession in 2023.
Going Forward
Retail numbers this holiday season will be a significant signal for the 2023 economy. This pundit with over five decades as an economic participant believes a Hard Landing is more Likely than a Soft one. By December 26, 2022 we will have a better idea of the first two quarters the next calendar year.
What are you doing to assure that your family and your organization have the agility to weather the possible coming economic storms?
For More Information
Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein. They are provided for education and entertainment only.
The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.
There is a vast body of work regarding Hard v Soft economic Landings. A good starting source for those interested in addition information is Investopedia.
“People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962). For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game. You can contact this author as well.
For more insight regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our recent blog, Crippling Green.
For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts. If interested, check it out and give us a shout.