Category: Pseudo-Science

  • What Is Your Opinion Based On?

    What Is Your Opinion Based On?

    “Without data, you’re just another person with an opinion.”

    ~ W. Edwards Deming

    Data and its use is a very hot topic these days.  Significant controversy exists over decision making regarding Covid-19 strategies and the quality or lack there of the data supporting government policies.  Scientific disagreements and so called ‘academic arguments‘ are appropriate, especially when facing the NEW.  However, the way some data is being used should give us all pause.

    We will learn a lot from this pandemic, one important opportunity is to understand how incomplete and competing data can/must be used in important decision processes.  By definition, every decision is made with incomplete and/or poor quality data.  Moreover, all data is not revealed by traditional data analysis–Latent variables play a major role in any assessment process.

    Opinions Are Like …

    There are a number of ways to complete the above sentence and we will leave that to the reader.  As Deming mentioned, if the data supporting a position is not valid and reliable, it enters the arena of “FAKE.”  According to Accenture, “Fake data is data that is unverified, maliciously tampered with, or just plain wrong.”

    Unfortunately, much of what is passed today, especially on social media might be classified in the fake category.  With no quality assurance, even by institutional resources, positions are advanced as gospel and are often not just wrong but driven by agendas.

    For example, months ago, hydroxychloroquine was vilified by an on air journalist, yet a world leading medical expert posited that it helped.  Presently, the pendulum has swung against this drug.  Questions of the efficacy of the data have been resurrected.

    It is beyond the scope of this piece to address data nuances. Interested parties may find the Public Health Research Guide: Primary & Secondary Data Definitions useful.  Moreover, it is not necessary to become a data expert or data scientist.  The construct, Wisdom of the Crowds suggest that the knowledge and decision of a large group can be better than experts.

    If you have expertise in data, ask this simple question “Is the data reliable and valid?”  Also, follow the wisdom of physicist Richard Feynman, “If it disagrees with experiment, its wrong.”

    With so many claiming to follow The Science, it is important that individuals have a level of understanding about the data that supports The Science.  Sadly, from this physicist’s perspective secondary, unvetted data is often the weak foundation of their positions.

    So, What Are Your Statements Based On?

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    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

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  • Can Never Be Proved Right!

    Can Never Be Proved Right!

    “If it disagrees with experiment, its wrong”—Richard Feynman

    Full Disclosure: this author holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Physics with a minor in Mathematics.  My doctoral dissertation developed a new Game Theory based practical solution.

    For those unfamiliar with this discipline, check out the movie Beautiful Mind or the work of John von Neumann who is also the father of the modern computing architecture.  Our approach is based on these integrated disciplines.

    This follows on the last blog and was inspired by a weekend conversation with my brother who holds a Ph.D. in physics and has invented products making the aviation world much safer.

    The incomparable (Nobel Prize in Physics) Richard Feynman knew how to teach physics to laypeople.  One of his most notable moments was when he showed the shuttle Challenger committee that freezing o-rings made them more brittle—something most living in the north intuitively know but somehow was lost during cold snaps in Florida (not entirely as some warned of this potential).  The other option was “get-there-itis” or the need to fulfill a mission no matter what.  Time, money and reputation at risk.  For more information, check out the final report on the Challenger.

    Instead of taking your time to read this pundit’s opinion, spend 10 minutes to hear what this Nobel Laurate has to say regarding the definition of Science and the Scientific Method.  He also argues that with ‘Vague Theory’ you can get multiple results, aka pseudo-science.

    I think this model works for Covid-19 as well.  After all, addressing this pathogen is largely technology based.

    “For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled”

    —R. Feynman, Challenger Report

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    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    The Short Version of this Feynman lecture.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.

  • They Blinded Me with Science

    They Blinded Me with Science

    Thoughts from a Scientist

    Full Disclosure: this author holds an undergraduate degree in Physics with a minor in Mathematics.  My doctoral dissertation developed a new Game Theory based practical solution.  For those unfamiliar with this discipline, check out the movie Beautiful Mind or the work of John von Neumann who is also the father of the modern computing architecture.  Our approach is based on these integrated disciplines.

    Belief in ‘The Science’

    The multiple disciplines often called ‘Science’ incorporate a wide set of specialties.  At the fundamental level all life depends on science.  Gravity, medicine, chemistry, electronics, are all dependent on basic scientific understanding.  If it was not so, our iPhones would not work.

    The phrase, “Everything that can be invented has been invented” Charles H. Duell Commissioner of US patent office (perhaps jokingly) supposedly said in 1899.  Needless to say, ‘The Science’ continues to evolve.

    When treated as fait accompli, (Settled Science) pundits pronouncing The Science says “. . .,” do their audience a disservice.  Since human first started discovering their world and its place in the universe science has been an ongoing process.  Those interested in additional details should check out the Timeline of Scientific Discoveries.  A very compelling read.

    A final point, science is usually the subject of often great debate—sometimes for decades or more.  In this sense, there is no such thing as settled science—there is always something new to discover in any field.

    Pseudo-Science

    Lies, darn lies and statistics is a phase often heard.  Its meaning?  The use of numbers can be very persuasive bolstering diametrically opposed positions or academic arguments.  This is one way to look at the differences between science and pseudo-science.

    According to Scientific American, “Scientific claims are falsifiable—that is, they are claims where you could set out what observable outcomes would be impossible if the claim were true—while pseudo-scientific claims fit with any imaginable set of observable outcomes.  What this means is that you could do a test that shows a scientific claim to be false, but no conceivable test could show a pseudo-scientific claim to be false.  Sciences are testable, pseudo-sciences are not.”

    These two terms are often confused or deliberately conflated in support of positions based on ‘The Science.’  Caveat Usor or ‘let the user (of information) beware’ of the agenda and/or purpose of its purveyor.

    Enter Covid

    Covid-19 has presented some interesting challenges.  From the public discourse, one can assume both science and pseudo-science are at work.  A vigorous dialogue is ongoing at all levels of society from the political and medical classes to the so-called man (or woman) on the street.

    The public is not used to seeing such open scientific debate by knowledgeable (scientists) parties and it often appears they are in total disagreement about various aspects of the pathogen.  In this, they are correct as they are seeing the so-called ‘sausage making’ of this discipline.

    Likewise, a wide variety of agendas seem to be driving the use of pseudo-science to support positions and action plans.  This seeming chaos, especially in a US presidential election cycle has cast a long shadow of Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt (FUD).

    Data integrity, statistical models and medicine have all been called into question this year.  Beyond this pandemic, we are all now faced with the politicization of ‘The Science.’

    Guidelines in the Era of Hyper-Technology

    Approximately twenty years ago, the chemical company Dupont changed its long standing tag line from “Better Living Through Chemistry” to “The Miracles of Science.”  This suggests that everyone living today has seen science at the forefront of our existence.

    Technology, the delivery mechanism of science to consumers has expanded at an exponential rate and is seeming driving even faster.  Therefore, a hypothesis from the Scientific Method is that ‘we consumers are knowledgeable buyers.’

    So, why not use the Scientific Method yourself?  Here is one approach:

    • Pose a Testable Question—Ask yourself how can I measure the response?
    • Conduct Background Research—Google search et al, recognizing the probably of bias on the part of authors
    • State your Hypothesis—Question with NO pre-conceived outcome (Pseudo-Science)
    • Design Experiment—How can I test my hypothesis?
    • Perform your Experiment—Test your idea
    • Collect Data—Write down anything that you learn
    • Draw Conclusions—What makes logical sense (Mr. Spoke)?
    • Publish Findings—Tell your colleagues, write a blog or more

    This need not be an arduous task.  In fact, much of it you’re doing already when you make a decision to procure technology devices.

    Think about what you hear pundits arguing about using this approach.  You will likely arrive at your personal conclusion that you are either hearing about science or pseudo-science.

    Either answer may be fine, but now you will know more about what you are consuming.  This is an important distinction.

    How Can You Assure Yourself That You Are Not Blinded by Science?

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    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely event and contact the organizer for access to the presentations!!

    You can contact this author as well.