Tag: inflation

  • It’s The Holiday Season–Maybe?

    It’s The Holiday Season–Maybe?

    At least in the United States we will soon be kicking off the Holiday Season with all the craziness it brings.

    Starting with the US Thanksgiving, followed by Black Friday (often practiced the entire month of November) many will prepare for Santa Claus then on into the New Year’s celebration.  Many religions have holy days or periods at this time of year as well,

    This 45 days or so of consumer ‘over buying’ is a bellwether for retail economic health and as well as the overall economy.  Soon the media will be counting the daily cash registers.  Economists and other pundits will will tell us all that the state of the economy depends on the success of the gift giving season.

    A Difficult Economy

    We all know the challenges most families are facing.  Inflation, high gasoline prices, supply chain shortages, etc.  We have documented some of these issues in earlier editions of this blog.  We covered such areas as:

    As of this writing, the Tech Giants are laying off thousands along with hiring freezes.  Major retailers appear not to be hiring as much seasonal help as expected.

    This suggests the major economic market may not be as robust as hoped.

    Soft or Hard?

    Economists and others talk about a Hard or Soft Landing when it comes to the down side of economic cycles.  Some believe the markets have already priced Federal Reserve (the Fed) micro policies into the price points.  For example, the shift from “Zero Interest Rate Program and Quantitative Easing to raising rates and Quantitative Tightening.”  Others suggest that not all factors are yet priced into financial markets.

    Over simplified: A Hard Landing results in a Recession.  A Soft Landing avoids a Recession.

    As of this writing opinions appear to be split with some believing the the Soft scenario and other convinced we are in for a very Hard recession in 2023.

    Going Forward

    Retail numbers this holiday season will be a significant signal for the 2023 economy.  This pundit with over five decades as an economic participant believes a Hard Landing is more Likely than a Soft one.  By December 26, 2022 we will  have a better idea of the first two quarters the next calendar year.

    What are you doing to assure that your family and your organization have the agility to weather the possible coming economic storms?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.

    There is a vast body of work regarding Hard v Soft economic Landings.  A good starting source for those interested in addition information is Investopedia.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more insight regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our recent blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give us a shout.

  • Sun Sets in the West: Science or Commentary?

    Sun Sets in the West: Science or Commentary?

    One newscaster recently used the metaphor of the sun setting in the west as settled science so contrary views were not newsworthy.  His argument–Fairness is Over Rated!  What?  One wonders whether this is true for those who believe the world is round or for those in the Flat Earth Society?

    Yet most political commentary and views are not so apparent.  Politicians and pundits constantly refer to ‘so-called’ settled science only to have new information surface.  Moreover, we know how to test theories using the Scientific Method.  Sadly, outside of formal academic style research this tool does not appear to be in vogue these days.

    Sun Set

    We learn the truism that the sun rises in the east in the morning and sets in the west (slightly seasonally adjusted).  In fact, this calendar and timing have been known for several millennia.  This process is measurable and repeatable.  This phenomenon is supported by empirical data taken from experimentation and observation.  The data is valid (accurate) and reliable (repeatable).  Therefore, it follows that the knowledge of the sun setting in the west is based on science.

    In My Opinion . . .

    The 24/7 news cycle bombards us all with “Breaking News,” often several days after its occurrence.  In their rush to get the ‘scoop‘ facts are not available at the time, overlooked or deliberately mangled or omitted.  We are told that such and such is settled fact.  And then it isn’t!

    When one puts forth a position that while may be based on the certainty of one’s perspective on a matter, it often does not meet the test of the Scientific Method.  By definition, this type of statement is a viewpoint or a sentiment.  However, it can take on the mantle of science but is really Pseudo-Science as the hypothesis cannot be proved false.

    One’s perspective or cognitive bias on a given subject can lead to the development of an organizational, policy, political or social agenda designed to sway thinking and thus support the development and implementation of initiatives designed to operationalize said ideas.  Proponents often couch their position as “The Science.”

    Contemporary Decisions

    Our world is awash with significant economic and social challenges.  Whether ESG, Covid-19, Climate Change or Inflation everyone has an opinion with data and/or studies to support their positions.

    Consumers/Policy Makers/Decision Makers of these information will have to assess their value.   How valid and reliable are the positions taken and what is the uncertainty and risk associated with their implementation?

    The basis of all decisions include a level of incomplete or incorrect data.  This phenomenon is where the military phase, “No plan survives first contact with the enemy” comes from.

    So, it is with the confrontations of these four global issues.  A robust discussion of the various points-of-view and their basis is necessary.  Why is this not happening?

    When statements that the ‘consensus’ of vast majority of experts/scientists is blah blah blah are made, this should be a major red flag.  The statement that the ‘sun sets in the west’ has a significant body of knowledge behind it.  There is a level of uncertainty with most other prognostications.

    Louis Pasteur is credited with the statement, “Chance favors the prepared mind.”  This is just as true today as when he was developing vaccines for the anthrax and rabies scourges of his day.

    The best decisions are made even when controversial such as with Pasteur’s vaccines.  Eisenhower’s decision about D-day had similar attributes of uncertainty and risk.

    The United States, indeed the world has embarked on a multi-trillion dollar effort to solve the so-called existential threat of global warming.  Politically charged, one wonders if any of the proponents and doomsayers are basing their positions on actual science.

    How DARE THEY push false agendas that cost so much and will destroy economies.  How DARE THEY!!

    Are your organization’s decisions based on science or just someone’s opinion?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more information regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give us a shout.

  • Why Corporate Initiatives Fail

    Why Corporate Initiatives Fail

    According to the Cambridge Dictionary, one definition of initiative is. “A new plan or action to improve something or solve a problem.”  In corporate parlance this often translates into yet another short-term and often politically correct effort to demonstrate forward motion/social citizenship.  Often forgotten faster than the evening news cycle as new searches for performance take their place.

    Organizations of all types, public, private, profit and nonprofit etc. tend to announce new initiatives with great fanfare and pronouncements about ‘transforming our culture.’  So why do they continuously fall short of expectations?

    According to a Forbes Survey released just before the pandemic, “When participants in our survey were asked to create a list of reasons for (change programs) failure, ‘insufficient budget’ was cited by 23% and ‘insufficient time’ by only 17%.  Instead, participants ranked poor communication (62%), insufficient leadership and support (54%), organizational politics (50%), lack of understanding of the purpose of the change (50%), lack of user buy-in (42%) and lack of collaboration (40%) as the most critical issues.”

    In aggregate, the article suggests a total failure rate of70%.  This percentage level was first put forth in the early 1990s and is accepted by many as still correct today.  While empirical evidence is sketchy, none-the-less, the perception of failure remains high.

    This tracks with other project failure statistics this author has seen over the years.  Yet, all of these failure attributes are human and therefore, manageable and correctable.

    Today’s Buzz

    The economy is always front and center.  More so today given Inflation and Supply Chain problems.

    In this blogger’s opinion and in order of priority other key issues include Diversity, Inclusion and Equity (DEI), Climate Change and Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG).  While different organizations may face other challenges, these Four tend to dominate the news.

    Often issues overlap or compound, thus exponentially amplifying the impact on society.  For example, the electric vehicle (EV) is touted as a lynchpin to ‘fixing’ the Climate Change issue.  However, supply chain issues currently limit battery production and one can surmise this is a long-term problem and not simply current shortages or delays.  If this is correct, meeting desired climate metrics is problematic.

    Diversity, Equity and Inclusion

    Perhaps the most emotional of the Big Four, DEI seeks to level the so-called playing field for all regardless of ethnicity, gender or behavioral preferences.  Almost all organizations have a DEI Initiative underway.  Yet, they seem to be stalling much to the frustration of advocates.

    According to one source, “The DEI industry is dominated by what scholars call ‘personnel managers,’ employees in human resources.”  This is also the observation of this pundit as well.

    LinkedIn profiles include, Chief Diversity Officers, any number of DEI consultants and others carrying similar titles as well as commercial organizations offering DEI products and solutions.  Much like the plethora of Safety Culture ‘experts’ and tools that emerged after Deepwater Horizon offshore drilling rig disaster in 2010.

    From a recent Korn Ferry article, “Experts say companies must treat DE&I as they would any other business issue and use data analytics to understand why things aren’t working.”  This author interprets this to mean that DEI must be incorporated into ‘the way we do business‘ or part of the organization’s culture.

    No longer a simple initiative, the next Chief Diversity Officer may be a Caucasian male or even redundant.  Then, DEI will no longer be seen as a separate and different department.

    Energy Transformation

    The president of the United States recently said, ““ it comes to the gas prices, we’re going through an incredible transition that is taking place that, God willing, when it’s over, we’ll be stronger and the world will be stronger and less reliant on fossil fuels when this is over.”  As many countries implement Climate Change policies, this transition is economically rough to say the least.

    And with no guarantees that these efforts will actually reduce the earth’s temperature decades out, is this a Big Bet with major consequences to all of us.  In our last blog, Innovation: The Key to the Global Future we addressed the economics in detail.  Interested readers should refer to that piece.

    An extensive assessment was developed by Bjorn Lomborg in his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.  His credentials include the fact that he believes in global warming and is not a ‘denier’ as the phase goes.

    Caution to the lemmings jumping off the Energy Transition cliff, this is the ultimate initiative as it is political by nature.  Fickle by nature, political winds can change quickly and with that the value proposition.

    To some extent we are seeing this already as governments seek to address spirally energy costs, i.e., Germany restarts coal-fired power plants.  We might see more of this after the US midterm elections in November.

    ESG

    This initiative is treated as if it is new.  Well run companies have always enjoyed higher equity value.

    In 2011, we published our White Paper, Asset/Equipment Integrity Governance: Operations–Enterprise Alignment.  In that paper, we quoted, “During that period (2002), McKinsey & Company in conjunction with the Global Corporate Governance Forum conducted a study and found that over 75% of over 200 fund managers would value a stock at a higher price point if the company could demonstrate it had strong governance in place.  Moreover, the study also revealed that for western markets, firms with strong shareholder rights averaged 12-14% higher stock prices.”

    We previously addressed ESG in detail and how it fits in our Relationships, Behaviors, Conditions (RBC) Framework  (risk mitigation).  The operative word is Relationships.  This will include every stakeholder, so the impact can be substantial.

    For some organizations, ESG is new and the source of value in the annual Letter to Shareholders.  For others, business as usual incorporates those premises.  Begs the question, which organization would you like to invest in?

    Concluding Thoughts

    In this corporate animal’s experience, initiatives are seen as short-term events.  Leadership’s ‘rubber stamp’ does not carry gravitas.  Employees often ‘wait them out’ and go just about their business.  Others create media splash which dies quickly as well.  Only when change is codified in the organization’s culture do new approaches add sustained value.

    Initiatives fail because neither the board room nor the factory floor see them as adding value.  Fads driven by political winds, activists or social desires come and go.

    Strong governance is a proven value add.  A diverse workforce can add value but climate change as currently practiced will most like fail and fail Big and Expensive.  Society has addressed similar economic issues and will again.

    Are Your Organizational Initiatives Sustainable or Simply Fads?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.

    Disclaimer, the author has no personal or business relationship with Bjorn Lomborg or his publications other than reading and commenting on his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give us a shout.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

     

  • Will Price Controls Work This Time?

    Will Price Controls Work This Time?

    Update: Just after we published this edition, Goldman Sachs released this comprehensive research piece; Stagflation Risk.

    Recently, one media outlet raised the suggestion of government price controls.  Generally, seen as a bad idea, none-the-less in this inflationary environment, some may perceive value from an action of this kind.

    Additionally, in the current environment some politicians favor cancelling the gasoline tax at both the state and federal levels.  This might beg the question, if these taxes can be abated, why are they in place anyway?

    In 1971, President Nixon implemented price and wage controls.   Some saw this as an election ploy and if so, it worked as he was reelected.  In 2008, the free market Republican George W. Bush stated that sometimes you have to, “abandon free‐​market principles to save the free‐​market system.”  WHAT?

    Elected politicians often think they know more about running companies and economies than those who actually do.  Printing money and regulating commercial processes that they know nothing about, usually in the name of the people who may have put them in office.  Since most of these individuals do not have a working knowledge of the economy, is it any wonder that they bugger things up when they insert themselves?

    And Now!

    Self imposed, inflation is now higher than it has been since the 1970s.  Blamed on a third world country invading its neighbor, leadership states, I “can’t do much” about gasoline prices.  Need I say, malarkey!  The world is awash with ‘clean’ fossil fuels; societies just choose not to use them effectively.

    The concept of an Energy Basket is well defined and depending on geographical location, and need requirements any or all can be used as economically feasible.  Moreover, the concept of Energy Transition is not new.

    In  1993,  Theodore Modis published this diagram in his peer reviewed work, Technological Substitutions in the Computer Industry whereby he presented a technology substitution model that both energy and silicon mapped to very well.

    While renewables were not included in the model, readers will get the point that energy transition has always been an on going process.

    We further discussed this process in our 2015 book, Structural Dynamics: Foundation of Next Generation Management Science.  We defined, Structural Dynamics “the morphology or patterns of motion towards process equilibrium of interpersonal systems.”  In other words the nexus of structure and process whereby markets seek equilibrium if only for a time.

    Markets drive technology substitution.  Only when the economics of new energy sources are acceptable does the ‘take up’ move quickly.

    Volckerism

    Tough Love by the Fed kicked Stagflation in the gut and yes it hurt the US economy for years, but it saved the country from a worse fate.  From the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, “On Oct. 6, 1979, Fed Chairman Paul Volcker took dramatic steps to rein in the runaway inflation that had been sapping the strength of our economy since the mid-1960s.  Without his bold change in monetary policy and his determination to stick with it through several painful years, the U.S. economy would have continued its downward spiral.  By reversing the misguided policies of his predecessors, Volcker set the table for the long economic expansions of the 1980s and 1990s.”

    In 1965, the inflation rate was one percent.  By 1980, it had hit 14 percent.  Per Chairman Volcker’s statement, both Nixon and Carter implemented price controls with catastrophic effects on the nation.

    The Heavy Hand

    This  is not a piece on fiscal or monetary policy, rather it is meant as a wake up call from someone who lived through that period.  Distorted markets always correct, often rapidly and harshly.  The Great Depression comes to mind as well, as the Dotcom Bubble, Financial Crisis of  2008, etc.

    Those interested in the details and theory of human behavior in this period can follow up with the cited materials as well as a wealth of knowledge on  the subject of price controls.

    Bottom line, price controls did not work.  Markets became distorted.  Moreover, easy credit (very low interest rate) transformed to expensive credit (high interest rate) and eventually this painful process negatively transformed the marketplace in ways most contemporary readers have never known their whole life.

    Price controls are tempting.  It is easy to say, lets stop corporations from making obscene profits or gouging.  However, the downside negatively impacts those who need economic help the  most.

    One expects that in the coming months, especially as the election nears calls for price controls will become louder.  History has shown the results of such actions as economic suicide.

    How will your company prepare for mandated price freezes?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    References:

    Modis, Theodore. (1993). Technological Substitutions in the Computer Industry. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 43. pp. 157-167.

  • Welcome to the 70s—Again!

    Welcome to the 70s—Again!

    This Baby Boomer graduated from college in 1970.  Just in time for Saturday Night Fever and Grease, Avocado colored refrigerators and Harvest Gold dinnerware.  Plus, the best friend a then bachelor ever had–the microwave oven!

    Not to forget the Gasoline Lines and Hyper Inflation, Vietnam, Peace/Race Protests/Riots, a Major Recession, Stagflation and other wonderful (not) youthful memories–ugly political and economic time not wished on future generations.  Adjusted for inflation a gallon of gasoline was $0.36 in 1970.  By 1980 it was $1.19–greater than a 330% increase.

    Seems like as Yoga Berra once said, “It’s like déjà vu all over again,” or ‘Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it.”  Yet here we are again, or so it seems.

    While I am not dusting off my leisure suit or growing what’s left of my hair, if as this boomer believes we are beginning to relive the 1970s economy, so what should we do?  How should we respond to this new, yet old situation?

    Most financial planners, corporate executives, academics, regulators and others were either not old enough or even alive when the economic and political shocks of the 1970s engulfed the globe.  Without this experienced knowledge, many maybe ill equipped to deal with the current  tsunami that is building.  Perhaps a critical concern for everyone’s 401K retirement investments?

    Hyper inflation is a cancer.  It destroys economies and even societies, not to mention families and individuals in its wake.  Real estate may be a winner if anyone can afford to purchase your house.  However, equities struggle and cash is toast.  From 1970 to 1980 the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced a scant 5 percent.

    How does this compare with an over 300% increase in the gasoline we all needed for our automobiles?  Short answer, it does not and individual households went backward during that period.

    So What Do We Do Now?

    Flight to quality.  But what represents quality?  Big Tech comes to mind but what is the underlying value proposition of a web based database?  The outage of a major player blamed on a network issue and a number of (internal) cascading issues–the plague of many industrial incidents including Deepwater Horizon questions that proposition.

    Are companies this vulnerable in our age of digitalization, or was this a sign of something else?  As with many IT oriented decisions, “It depends.”  The fact that one of the world’s largest, high profile web based companies suffered a significant outage, not as a result of a cyber attack but apparently its own technical incompetency is not reassuring in a Cloud based global economy.

    The something else–we have discussed the need for High Reliability for complex sectors including the 16 sectors the US Homeland Security deems as Critical Infrastructure.  Social media is not on that list, but manufacturing is.  In our forthcoming (2022) book, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability,” we address risk mitigation strategies that can inoculate organizations from such catastrophic IT failures.

    Heavy industries such as oil and gas are routinely criticized when a catastrophic incident occurs.  These need no longer happen and we have put forth strategies routinely for more than a decade including in our 2014 book, Implementing a Culture of Safety: A Roadmap to Performance-Based Compliance.

    As we move into the ‘Smart’ era, it will be incumbent on organizations to take steps to mitigate what happened to a web based chat room provider.  The exogenous risk of critical infrastructure failing is significant, per the recent Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack and the systemic damage done to the US east coast.

    The 1970s were marked by turmoil and follow on from the late 1960s.  Richard Nixon took the country off the Gold Standard opening up significant economic and individual distress.  We appear to be on the cusp of Yogi’s cautionary tale.  It does not have to be, but appears likely.  Is the US dollar no longer the world’s reserve currency in a era of bitcoin?  If so, what are the ramifications?

    Finally, as the son of parents from the Greatest Generation, I admit I never faced the challenges they endured.  During my 20s, the period was an inconvenience, yet one I do not care to relive in my 70s.  The graphic was taken from the Internet without citation.  The author is unknown but we acknowledge his/her sense of humor.  AND I can relate to it!

    The Fed has indicated Inflation (Stagflation?) is here to stay.  To this individual, this is a scary statement even though it posited as essentially ‘no big deal.’  We will see in a year if it was as big a deal as it was in the 1970s.

    How will You Manage in this Environment?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    Interested in Cross Cultural Engagement or DEI, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.

    For more information on these and others subjects covered in the Critical Mass series contact this author.