The Rapid Response Institute

Tag: Cross Culture

  • Data Bias: The Latent or Unobserved

    Data Bias: The Latent or Unobserved

    In statistics a Latent Variable can be defined as, ‘a variable inferred from observed or measured data.’ Its analysis is often used psychology, economics, and predictive modeling.  This author used Structural Equation Models (SEM) in his 1996 doctoral dissertation, Cross Cultural Negotiations Between Japanese and American Businessmen: A Systems Analysis (Exploratory Study).

    From that abstract, “The use of sophisticated statistical techniques such as structural equation modeling and game theory is becoming increasing more important.  Traditional techniques are known to be limited, particularly in the context of cross-cultural behavioral studies.”

    Survival Bias

    A recent LinkedIn post alerted this writer to the inimitable perspective statistician Abraham Wald brought to the assessment of World War II Allied bomber damage upon return from missions.  He argued that observed anti-aircraft damage was non-crippling since the aircraft remained airworthy and was able to return.

    He surmised that planes that did not come home may have suffered damage to other areas making them unairworthy and hence their data was unobserved.  Based on this analysis, the U.S. Navy beefed-up armor in the less or unaffected areas and this was credited with saving lives and aircraft.

    This type of analysis came to known as Survival Bias which has its proponents and detractors.  On the surface, it seemed intuitively obvious that areas of damage need addressing while not necessarily those statistically showing fewer issues.

    It is not our intent herein to assess its merits and applicability.  Rather to help readers better understand the very nature of big data and its use, especially in predictive and behavioral models.

    Covid-19

    Today, policy and other decision makers are tasked with dealing with a deadly global pathogen.  Apparently developing quickly and spreading exponentially—a super spreading event.  As of this writing has afflicted millions in 188 countries/region in much less than 12 months.

    In this pundit’s opinion, much of the concern, confusion and clearly wrong information regarding this disease and mitigation protocols can be traced to data collection and analysis.  By now most readers will have some familiarity with the chaos associated with these predictive models.

    For example, according to the US National Library of Medicine, National Institute of Health, “A key fact for us all to remember is that, for the majority of countries, we’re not actually counting how many people have the virus—instead were counting the reports of how many people have the virus, and, like all metrics, those numbers vary according to how they’re measured.  An increase in the number of tests being carried out will result in an increase in the number of infections detected.”

    In addition to the Herculean efforts to tame this tiger from the vast medical, scientific, technology and many other disciplines, Structural Equation Modeling is being used to shed additional light on the latent variables.

    Final Thoughts

    The 2020 Coronavirus is an early test of Big Data analysis in support of decision makers both for public policy and non-government organizations.  While performance so far has been weak, this pundit believes great value can come from this effort.

    Data quality must be highly reliable and valid.  Moreover, models must assess what is not seen, the latent variables such as found in Survival Bias.  These two aspects of strong decision support models are crucial.  These are lessons for all of us.

    Where Didn’t the Bullets Hit Your Business Model?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We are presenting, Should Cross Cultural Serious https://rri-ccgame.com/Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 the week of September 14, 2020.  Check Out this timely conference!!

    You can contact the author as well.

  • The Tyranny of the Blank Sheet of Paper

    The Tyranny of the Blank Sheet of Paper

    We have all had that, “Where do I start” moment?  Confronted with the NEW, sometimes the task seems daunting.  In a recent conversation, a colleague and I were discussing an adult training program.  The subject centered on how to help students jump start a creative flow.

    We humans are fond of using so called cheat sheets.  Whether school CliffNotes, Cut and Paste, Go Bys, Best Practices or other tools to wrap our mind around a subject and launch the thought process.  In other words, anything to move us away from the cosmic void–so called ‘writer’s block.’

    Tidbits that Work for Me

    Faced with tyranny often during my formative career years, i.e., a professional services proposal, new spreadsheet, etc. a few tricks were developed.

    First—Just start writing.  Put your thoughts down as they fly out and don’t worry about the order or even if they are relevant.  You can sort these things out later, but a least your paper is no longer blank.

    Get Up—Hit a spot where nothing is pouring out of your brain? Put your (electronic) paper down and go exercise or do something totally unrelated.  You will be surprised how the creative juices will flow when you return.

    Ask a Friend—Remember the old game show where contestants could ‘phone a friend’ when stumped on a question?  Brainstorm with friend and colleagues; even those who have no knowledge of the problem your engaged with.  Sometimes, they have the best insight—true out of the box.

    Do Something Else—If time allows put the project on the shelf and work on something entirely different.  You can come back later refreshed.

    FYI, the tyranny never goes away.  Hundreds of publications and presentations later, it still can persist from time to time.  The four tidbits still work for this author.

    By one definition, tyranny is “cruel, unreasonable, or arbitrary use of power or control.”  There is no reason to let a blank sheet of paper exercise such awful authority.  Take back your creativity!

    Why Let the Blank Sheet of Paper Ruin Your Day?

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    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We presented, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 on April 9, 2020.  The summit will be offered again soon.  Check it Out!!

    You can contact the author as well.

  • Restoring the Global Economy: Starting Today!

    Restoring the Global Economy: Starting Today!

    Prognosticators of the future, including this one are speculating on the Post-Covid-19 world.  As with every disruptive crisis, things change going forward.  This one will be no different and will probably accelerate certain trends, end some and generate many new opportunities.  Some industry sectors and many organizations will need to transmute the way they do business.

    One thing that will not change is our dependencies on one another both for business and the global society in general.  We may modify our supply chain procedures, work more remotely, change training and education processes and so forth and so one.

    The use of certain information technologies and the need to protect them from maleficent (computer) viruses will most likely explode.  The oil and gas sector will restructure itself as it has many times over its history.  Winners and losers will emerge.

    There is a major underpinning for all of this—Cross Cultural Interactions.  In this new world order successful organizations (including governments) that develop and sustain a Strong Bond Governance model can thrive.  Others that do not will most likely struggle.  We first made this case when the oil and gas Deepwater sector was struggling post Deepwater Horizon and again during the last oil price crash.

    Building a Strong Remote Working Culture and Brand

    Probably the trend towards more Remote Working will accelerate after the Covid-19 crisis passes.  To the extent an organization prepares its ecosystem for this transformation it may secure competitive value.

    Many industrial organizations are not early adopters of technology.  Their preference is to let others lead and implement later in the technology life cycle.  While this approach worked for many in the past, it may not be the best strategy going forward.

    In 2004, we posited that Early Adopters actually captured the most value from new technology.  Integral “Calculus tells us that the area under the curve is approximately the sum of the areas of inscribed rectangles.”

    Adjusted for risk, this hypothesis is supported by mathematics.  Check it out, it might work for your organization.

    As stated in our last blog, there are underly concerns when vast numbers are working remotely for long periods of time.  One suspects there will be some media reporting on not just the technical difficulties but the human issues working remotely.

    At one level, there appears to be a clash between the value of early adoption and human challenges of remote work.  Management must be aware of this challenge and put processes in place to address real human concerns.

    Enhanced Cross Cultural & Diversity Training

    Organizations continue to be diverse including a number of cross-cultural characteristics based on geography, division, etc.  Managing diversity and cultural challenges are more acute when working remotely.

    To build this strong culture and be known as a ‘thought leadership’ organization requires training.  As we know, training can be online and not just workshop or classes.

    We humans can interact with each other in a meaningful way playing a serious game.  Our Cloud based Cross Cultural Serious Game enables diverse individuals and teams to engage in real world scenarios from remote locations.  We have found this type of training to be invaluable for diverse and remote team interaction.

    The expected increase in organizational restructuring will lead the merger and acquisition activity in the near future.  This cross-cultural training tool can add value therein as well.

    How will YOU position yourself for the next step?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to third-party materials.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game

    We will be presenting, Should Cross Cultural Serious Games Be Included in Your Diversity Program: Best Practices and Lessons Learned at the Online Conference, New Diversity Summit 2020 beginning April 5, 2020.  Check it Out!!

    You can contact the author as well.