The Rapid Response Institute

Tag: Bjorn Lomborg. False Alarm

  • What We’ve Got Here is Failure to Communicate!!

    What We’ve Got Here is Failure to Communicate!!

    “The single biggest problem in communication is the illusion that it has taken place.”

    George Bernard Shaw

    The 1967 movie Cool Hand Luke, popularized the term, “What we’ve got here is failure to communicate.”  The American Film Institute lists this statement as number 11 out of the top 100 movie quotes.  The basis of this exchange is the prisoner in a Florida prison camp, refusing a guard’s continual demands.

    Clash of Titans

    In our 1994 presentation, Organizational Conflict and Dispute Resolution we positioned Diversity as a Function of Culture.  Another way to look at this is a function of ‘tension at the margin.’  We defined this term as, “Stress between competing bodies—the engine of power.”  The idiom was derived from the Pressure Differential in powerful weather events such as hurricanes.  The blog went on state, “Humans constantly deal with this phenomenon and sometimes the stress caused by this dichotomy can seem to be overwhelming.  Sometimes, it seems this powerful internal engine races without a governor.”  Sometimes, cultural clashes seem to have these same titanic properties.

    Cultural Governance

    This pundit has a somewhat different opinion on ESG than typically featured in the media.  This framework is only a set of standards that responsible firms have been using for years.  We addressed this issue in June 2005 in the piece, The Corporate Bar is Raised! which is a chapter in our 2011 book, Essays on Business and Information II: Maximizing Organizational Performance.

    The final paragraph in the piece states, “The linkage between robust embracement of strong governance and shareholder rights coupled with transparency and dispatch when things go badly will provide strong positive sustainability.  The corporate bar is raised, but isn’t this where it should have been all along?”  How is this any different than current ESG models?

    Governance sets a framework as well as an ethical methodology for advancing competing positions.  In one sense collaboration is the ultimate goal as the intent of the whole is to maximize success.  Governance models that are not aligned with that goal are sub-optimal.

    R B C

    There is a great deal of discussion about Energy Transformation today.  It is not only a political football but many consulting and technology company are pushing their products and solutions.  No doubt some of dubious value.  All parties have an agenda!

    The word transformation suggests that the current Condition or environment demands changes in Behavior.  The result of these changes drives new Relationships (RBC) among economic actors.

    It is one thing to move from wood and dung as fuel to the coal that powered steamships and now other fossil fuels that power almost everything as well as the feedstocks for almost everything the modern world uses and social transformations.  There are major differences between the two Differential Pressures.

    Energy Transformation is heavily dependent on hard infrastructure.  The ability to economically replace gas stations with plug in sites, the time it takes to ‘refuel’ a mobile machine, and so forth and so one.  This is a decades long process and not something that can be done on a simplistic political timeline.

    Social Transformation is not easy either.  However, the process mostly requires changing collective mindfulness.  This process can unfold rather quickly.

    For example, events of Pearl Harbor, 9/11 as well as the adoption of ‘Smart phones,’ political party positions, weather events, etc. can transform thoughts in weeks, months and even days.  In this sense it is easier to accomplish.

    Fin

    Change happens when all parties feel like there is something in it for them.  Where exogenous or endogenous, new Conditions can drive better Behaviors and thus new Relationships.  However, individuals need to know the value they will derive.  A failure to communicate need not be fait accompli.

    Do You Know if You Are Communicating with Your Friends, Colleagues and Others?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more information regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give us a shout.

  • Reports of Fossil Fuels Demise Premature? – Renewables Remain Marginalized?

    Reports of Fossil Fuels Demise Premature? – Renewables Remain Marginalized?

    Who would have thought that in the summer with temperatures over 100 degrees Fahrenheit the wind would stop blowing.

    According to NOAA, “The main cause of wind is a little surprising.  It’s actually temperature.  More specifically, it’s differences in temperature between different areas.”  With a major Atmospheric High Pressure parked over a large geographic area, no wonder the wind does not blow.

    Texas Heat

    July 11, 2022 was a true scorcher across the state of Texas.  According to the Dallas Morning News, “Wind speeds have fallen to extremely low levels, and that means the state’s fleet of turbines is at just 8% of their potential output.”  This resulted in this and other Texans receiving an email from the local electricity provider asking for help cut back on power use.

    Texas is major producer of wind energy with over 150 wind farms–total capability of 30,000 MW (2020).  This amounts to approximately, 33% of the state’s power–more electricity produced than any other state.  So in the midst of a major heat wave, less than 25% of the state’s (potential) power generation was effectively available.

    This Level of Unreliability is Unacceptable.

    Previously, we addressed this issue after the Texas Freeze of 2021.  It does not seem like this problem is going away.  Guessing, that like the freeze, lack of energy availability will continue to be mitigated by fossil fuel power production!

    German Cold

    According to the University of Illinois Chicago, “Patients who died because of cold temperatures were responsible for 94% of temperature-related deaths.”

    It gets cold in Germany in the winter.   While the temperature range may vary slightly, Germans need heat every winter.  Despite climate (warming) change, this is not likely to change this coming season.

    The news has reported that Germany has depended on Russian gas for some time.  With the hostilities in Ukraine, that energy source is in jeopardy.  This has caused the country to look to other, reliable sources.  Coal.  Framed as “painful but necessary,” the country had to restart coal based power production.

    Perhaps not desirable for some politicians and prognosticators, Germany has no choice.  Many will be happy with this decision on Christmas Eve.  Near term survival vs. long-term possibilities.

    Clean Fossil

    One day in the 1980s this writer left his hotel in Los Angeles for a morning run.  A few minutes later, I stopped and returned to my room.  The air was so thick with pollution I felt my heath would be better served by doing nothing as opposed to running outside.

    Flash forward to November 1987 when this writer was in Beijing, China for almost a month.  The air was so extreme that frankly my nose contained coal particles simply by breathing.  Moreover, Houston, Texas at the time had similar issues whereby the air actually ‘smelled’ in the industrial area.

    Today, the United States does not have these issues at least at this level (not true with other nations).  The US has ‘cleaned’ its act up so to speak.  Its rivers no longer catch on fire, as they once did.  All of this is the result of better stewardship of carbon based fuels.

    According to the US National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), “Coal-fired electricity generation is cleaner than ever.  NETL’s research shows that a new coal plant with pollution controls reduces nitrogen oxides by 83 percent, sulfur dioxide by 98 percent, and particulate matter by 99.8 percent compared to plants without controls.”

    It is possible to responsibly use carbon effectively, efficiently and cleanly.  This is missed by both sides of the climate debate.

    Demise–NOT!

    The humorist Mark Twain is credited with saying, “The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.”  One can make the same case about fossil fuels.

    According to one source, today there are 1.446 billion motor vehicles on the planet.  Reportedly, just under 284 million are registered in the United States.  Our ‘share’ represents less than 20 % of the global fossil fueled propelled transportation.  Note that this does not include aerospace and the multitude of critical uses of carbon based feedstocks.

    According to the US Energy Information Administration, only 12% of energy was provided by renewables in 2021.  Fossil fuels in aggregate provided 79% of the basket of energy sources.  According to another credible data provider, “The share of wind and solar is rising constantly (+1 point in 2021), reaching 10.7% of the global power mix.”

    This slow growth is over approximately 20 years.

    When the wind does not blow, sun does not shine or solar panels are covered with snow, power comes from dependable fossil fuels.  Moreover, according to experts, none of this linear climate change political response will most likely make a difference anyway.

    Energy Transformation is an uninvestable amount with uncertain returns.  In other words, high and undocumented risk.  So what are we doing?

    How is Your Organization Managing the Risk associated with the Energy Transformation?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more information regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give us a shout.

  • Innovation: The Key to the Global Future

    Innovation: The Key to the Global Future

    Henry Ford, the Founder of Ford Motor Company is famously attributed to this statement.  “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.”  In other words, most of us think linearly.

    One wonders if this line of reasoning is the best way during the current situation.  Perhaps, non-linear mindsets are more appropriate.

    Challenges

    Currently, many define an existential threat as Climate Change.  Additionally, the global economy, the War in Ukraine, bad actors and other ills make the daily news.  We are also told the time is of the essence.  However, it appears the window will close before the appropriate linear responses can come online.

    As the pandemic unfolded in early 2020, we penned a piece on the role innovation would play addressing the global scourge. We put forth some points we believed salient at the time such as:

    • The rise of remote work
    • The ability to scale quickly, i.e., vaccines, ventilators, et. al.
    • Changes in Clinical Trial protocols

    From the same blog, this pundit has long advocated that, “the use of knowledge enabled by technology can reduce project cycle time dramatically.  It can also significantly reduce project cost as well.”

    As we look back on that period, the collective global ‘we’ accomplished a lot.  A plethora of useful materials were developed and published by all manner Subject Matter Experts (SME) as well as those with ‘life knowledge.’  We chose to capture and repost materials (Covid-19 Business Continuity Resources) that could of use to those business executives struggling with work force issues.  These materials remain available.

    Regrettable, the term SCIENCE was terribly misused, including by medical professionals and professional scientists, all of whom should have known better.  This discussion is further developed in our blog, They Blinded Me with Science.   For interested readers, the piece develops the concepts of science and pseudo-science as well as a brief methodology all can use to help them assess what they are being told about major issues.

    Actual Science has moved humanity out of the caves and into our modern world.  Likely, it can help us address current and future global challenges.  The proven innovative use of the Scientific Method is one path forward.

    SpaceX – NASA

    Elon Musk is in the news for a number of reasons.  He is perhaps one of the best know billionaires.  In the opinion of this pundit, the partnership between his company SpaceX and NASA appears to be one of the most productive Public-Private Partnerships (PPP).  Perhaps this good or best practice could be emulated by others seeking new ways to innovate.

    Realistic Energy Transition

    Energy Transition is all the rage with all manner or organization jumping on board.  Somewhat reminds me of the late 1990s dot.com era.  According to Wikipedia, after the ensuring bust, “the NASDAQ-100 had dropped to 1,114, down 78% from its peak.”  Makes one wonder that this might not be the first rodeo for the latest ‘change the world shinny object.’

    Previously, we noted that the replacement of a major highway ramp in Houston, TX USA is slated to take two years.  Additionally, according to McKinsey, “The goal is to install 500,000 public chargers—publicly accessible charging stations compatible with all vehicles and technologies—nationwide by 2030.”  Message: infrastructure development takes a certain amount of time.

    Also from McKinsey, “Capital spending on physical assets for energy and land-use systems in the net-zero transition between 2021 and 2050 would amount to about $275 trillion, or $9.2 trillion per year on average, an annual increase of as much as $3.5 trillion from today.  To put this increase in comparative terms, the $3.5 trillion is approximately equivalent, in 2020, to half of global corporate profits, one-quarter of total tax revenue, and 7 percent of household spending.”

    As of this writing the global stock markets appear to be in freefall.  Some believe, including this author that a Recession is imminent.  This begs the obvious.  How will this linear effort be paid for and what will be the return on this huge investment?

    There must be a better way.

    Innovate, Innovate, Innovate

    In his recent book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet noted climate change advocate, Bjorn Lomborg expresses concern regarding linear type scenarios and investments being made reduces climate change to Net Zero.

    He argues that regardless of efforts made such as described herein, we will not defeat global warming.  The temperature will rise anyway.

    If this is the case, then the ROI from a $275 trillion dollar commitment may in fact be negative.  This might spell economic disaster at a sustained level.

    Lomborg makes the case that innovation is key.  His perspective seems to be more on university led research supported by governments.  There is a role for government to fun basic research and many have for decades.

    Entrepreneurs have been advancing humankind for hundreds of years.  With proper market signals, we can expect a new generation to rise to the occasion addressing the energy transition and ultimately climate change.

    The author is aware of a number of ‘Green’ efforts underway to encourage the development of new commercial technologies.  While not advocating for investment in an Incubator or Accelerator, it seems reasonable that start-up organizations addressing these challenges be encouraged.

    What Role Does Innovation Play in Your Firm’s Approach to Climate Change?.

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.

    Disclaimer, the author has no personal or business relationship with Bjorn Lomborg or his publications other than reading and commenting on his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give us a shout.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.