The Rapid Response Institute

Category: Climate Change

  • What About Today?

    What About Today?

    Why are we so worried about what the world will look like in 2050?

    In that year, this pundit will be 102 years old and most likely dead.  While not denying that our stewardship of the planet is an obligation, perhaps our focus is misplaced.  Climate Change, Climate Change, Climate Change has become the mantra for many.  But what about environmental damage done in the present?

    This author moved to Houston, TX in 1978.  For the next few years, you could smell the chemicals emitted from the refining and petrochemical sectors from the so-called ‘Ship Channel.’  Later, the odor dissipated as the environment was remediated.  Similarly, during that period the smog was so thick in the greater Los Angeles area that one could not see the mountains to the east.  That geography is now better as well.

    At least in the United States, we have shown that we can clean and sustain a decent environment.  Yet society is focused on a global long-term problem that by some accounts is not solvable.  Certainly as long as Asia continues its current energy practices.

    Almost Half a Century Later

    Now we sit at the precipice of the greatest environmental challenge since Love Canal (circa 1978), yet by all accounts “it is no big deal.”  Except to those living in and around East Palestine, Ohio.

    2050 is only 27 years away and we are told (2019)  the world as we know it will end in less than 12 years unless draconian climate steps are taken.  Call me a skeptic, but if we have not been able to stop local manmade environmental disasters, what makes us think we can fix the global climate?

    What Steps are You and Your Organization Taking to Fix the Here and Now?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.  Moreover, Dr. Shemwell is a coauthor for an in press book (to be released in Spring 2023) titled, “Smart Manufacturing: Integrating Transformational Technologies for Competitiveness and Sustainability.”  His focus is on Operational Technologies.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more information regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Regarding the economics of Climate Change, check out our recent blog, Crippling Green.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy (including renewables) challenges, the author can put you in touch with Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give me a shout.

  • Crippling Green

    Crippling Green

    “Yes, hope is a strange thing.  Peace at last.  But at what price?”
    — Khaled Hosseini

    Great Societies have been lost in the past–a number of times.  There is no reason to believe our current crop is immune!

    Ariel Durant, the co-author of the 11 volume tome, The Story of Civilization is credited with, “A great civilization is not conquered from without until it has destroyed itself from within.”

    The United States is currently engaged in a great climate civil war.  One one side there are those who advocate for expensive and expansive economic and social investment in so-called Climate Change.  Climate Change Skeptics, often derided by the aforementioned group as Climate Deniers are those who question the Scientific Consensus and the cost and return on the investment to become Net Carbon Zero.  By the way, science is never settled.

    From the observer’s perspective, there is a long term effort to shut down debate, as is typical in today’s society largely by name calling, shaming and even threats.  Dissenters seemingly risked their professional reputation, loss of grants, even safety, and more.

    And Now Questions

    Funny thing happened on the road to Net Zero.  Questions began to be raised about the efficacy of renewables, and their Total Lifecycle Cost.  Moreover, the heavy metal cost of ecological damages of mining were raised and are now under scrutiny.

    The Let Them Eat Cake Strategy

    Transitions, especially Transformations are painful.  Based on Joseph Schumpeter’s Creative Destruction, “The incessant product and process innovation mechanism by which new production units replace outdated ones,” transformation is a linchpin of Capitalism.  Now, some believe socialism is the future, history does not prove their point.  Are any to turn in the Smart Phones for the old black dial model tethered to a wall?

    However, when this natural process is driven by the ‘heavy hand’ of non-economic actors, perturbations in the process can cause warps in the economic space time continuum.  Some examples of overreach include:

    Agriculture

    Some argue that, “Agriculture accounts for 16 to 27% of human-caused climate-warming emissions.”  Nitrous oxide (N2O) is the named culprit (according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change this chemical accounts for 6% of greenhouse emissions).

    It is reported that in the Netherlands agricultural sector system manure is high in nitrous oxide.  Emotions are apparently running high between Dutch farmers who see a targeted 30% reduction in livestock heads and the government whose position seems to be this is an “unavoidable transition.”  Jobs are at risk!

    Gasoline

    It seems the President of the United States is celebrating high gasoline prices as part of “an incredible transition” to move away from fossil fuels.  As with the Dutch case, this seems to place the biggest burden on the so-called ‘little guy.”

    Truckers

    We all remember the trucker protests in Canada and the United States in early 2022, mostly regarding Covid-19 restrictions.  Around the world there was a strong level of solidarity.

    This sector is also not immune to Climate Change driven initiatives.  From one source there are two key considerations:

      • The proposed 2027 new emissions regulations for diesel-powered trucks, and
      • The 2030 goals from some states and their aggressive objectives for zero-emissions vehicle sales.

    One might project similar (Covid-19 driven) responses to these new mandates.  This might be another major negative impact to supply chains for all sectors.

    Electric Vehicles

    The US Secretary of Transportation has suggested that everyone would benefit from an EV.  At the time of his statement (October 2021), the average cost of an EV was $55,676 while a compact car was $25,240 and and SUV was $34,122.

    By this pundits calculation (at $4 a gallon), break even for the SUV is 5,389 gallons of gasoline at 20 miles per gallon.  As mathematicians will say, it follows that break even is almost 108,000 miles of driving.  Years of driving for most of us and what shape will the battery be in at that point.  While some argue the maintenance costs are less for EV, most consumers are driven by out-of-pocket buying decisions.  Then there the disposal costs of EVs at end of life (see Other Blogs below for details).

    Fracing

    Perhaps one of the more emotional fossil fuel development process is Fracing (not Fracking by the way).  Some believe the damage to the environment from fracing is the greatest of any human endeavors.

    On the other hand, the value from fracing includes:

      • The shale revolution mad the United States self-sufficient in oil and gas for the first time since 1947
      • In 2022, the US is the largest exporter of LNG (liquified natural gas)

    Given the current geopolitical situation, easy access to low-cost traditional energy sources is at least near time high value.

    There are many other areas of controversy regarding this issue.  More than likely both sides will continue to make their points and emotions will continue to play a major role.  There will be Winners and Losers over the next few years as this debate plays out.  Honest scientific debate can mitigate the emotional and political agenda at play.

    Are Green Initiatives Making the Problem Worse?

    Per the NBC piece aired on September 20, 2022, illegal gold mining in Peru not only releases mercury into the ecosystem but adds to environmental carbon when the soil is disturbed.  This makes this pundit wonder if all the heavy metal strip mining to fuel EVs will do the same in addition to its other environmental problems (see Heavy Metal Rocks below)?

    Moreover, this issue about strip mining and carbon release has been known for a long time.  In 1977 the peer reviewed scholarly article, Soil fungal populations and soil respiration in habitats variously influenced by coal strip-mining addressed this issue.

    Likewise, NBC reported on illegal gold mining in Peru in 2019.   Point being, this information is not new nor is The Science newly discovered.

    Unintended Consequences run amok?  Are lithium batteries destroying the planet?

    And the Winner Is?

    No one!  If we do nothing, we are told the oceans will rise and temperatures will become unbearable causing all manner of weather driven catastrophes as well as increased intensity and frequency of forest fires.  On the other hand, spending the multiple trillions of dollar will enrich the (very) few at the cost of economic collapse for the many.

    Lose–Lose Deal.  Either way our world ends or our economies end.  Is there a difference?

    According to Merriam-Webster, “A pyrrhic victory is a victory that comes at a great cost, perhaps making the ordeal to win not worth it.  It relates to Pyrrhus, a king of Epirus who defeated the Romans in 279 BCE but lost many of his troops.”

    Decisions–Decisions

    So Global Society is faced with two choices.  The earth is in physical peril unless we spend malevolent amounts of money as fast as possible.  Or, as a result of economic destruction on a global scale if this level of spending adds little if any value.  Then we will all live in poverty or worse.  Either way, Human Extinction is one end game proclaimed by many.  The very definition of a Dilemma.

    According to Merriam Webster, one definition of Hobson’s Choice is, “The necessity of accepting one of two or more equally objectionable alternatives.”  Not a great place to find oneself.

    The ancient Romans apparently made poor decisions as a mature and wealthy society.  It cost them dearly.  Are we now?

    How are You and Your Organization Assessing the Risk of Investing in Climate Change (Conventional Wisdom) Scenarios or Alternative Approaches?

    Other Recent Relevant Blogs

    These blogs in this series address this particular issue in greater detailed.  Together, they form a more complete picture of the author’s position on relevant components discussed here as well aligned subjects.  In reverse chronological order:

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.

    Disclaimer, the author has no personal or business relationship with Bjorn Lomborg or his publications other than reading and commenting on his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    Second Disclaimer, Ali Daneshy was interviewed for the referenced Forbes article on Fracing.  This author knows Mr. Daneshy and worked with him for many years at Halliburton.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give us a shout.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

  • Reports of Fossil Fuels Demise Premature? – Renewables Remain Marginalized?

    Reports of Fossil Fuels Demise Premature? – Renewables Remain Marginalized?

    Who would have thought that in the summer with temperatures over 100 degrees Fahrenheit the wind would stop blowing.

    According to NOAA, “The main cause of wind is a little surprising.  It’s actually temperature.  More specifically, it’s differences in temperature between different areas.”  With a major Atmospheric High Pressure parked over a large geographic area, no wonder the wind does not blow.

    Texas Heat

    July 11, 2022 was a true scorcher across the state of Texas.  According to the Dallas Morning News, “Wind speeds have fallen to extremely low levels, and that means the state’s fleet of turbines is at just 8% of their potential output.”  This resulted in this and other Texans receiving an email from the local electricity provider asking for help cut back on power use.

    Texas is major producer of wind energy with over 150 wind farms–total capability of 30,000 MW (2020).  This amounts to approximately, 33% of the state’s power–more electricity produced than any other state.  So in the midst of a major heat wave, less than 25% of the state’s (potential) power generation was effectively available.

    This Level of Unreliability is Unacceptable.

    Previously, we addressed this issue after the Texas Freeze of 2021.  It does not seem like this problem is going away.  Guessing, that like the freeze, lack of energy availability will continue to be mitigated by fossil fuel power production!

    German Cold

    According to the University of Illinois Chicago, “Patients who died because of cold temperatures were responsible for 94% of temperature-related deaths.”

    It gets cold in Germany in the winter.   While the temperature range may vary slightly, Germans need heat every winter.  Despite climate (warming) change, this is not likely to change this coming season.

    The news has reported that Germany has depended on Russian gas for some time.  With the hostilities in Ukraine, that energy source is in jeopardy.  This has caused the country to look to other, reliable sources.  Coal.  Framed as “painful but necessary,” the country had to restart coal based power production.

    Perhaps not desirable for some politicians and prognosticators, Germany has no choice.  Many will be happy with this decision on Christmas Eve.  Near term survival vs. long-term possibilities.

    Clean Fossil

    One day in the 1980s this writer left his hotel in Los Angeles for a morning run.  A few minutes later, I stopped and returned to my room.  The air was so thick with pollution I felt my heath would be better served by doing nothing as opposed to running outside.

    Flash forward to November 1987 when this writer was in Beijing, China for almost a month.  The air was so extreme that frankly my nose contained coal particles simply by breathing.  Moreover, Houston, Texas at the time had similar issues whereby the air actually ‘smelled’ in the industrial area.

    Today, the United States does not have these issues at least at this level (not true with other nations).  The US has ‘cleaned’ its act up so to speak.  Its rivers no longer catch on fire, as they once did.  All of this is the result of better stewardship of carbon based fuels.

    According to the US National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), “Coal-fired electricity generation is cleaner than ever.  NETL’s research shows that a new coal plant with pollution controls reduces nitrogen oxides by 83 percent, sulfur dioxide by 98 percent, and particulate matter by 99.8 percent compared to plants without controls.”

    It is possible to responsibly use carbon effectively, efficiently and cleanly.  This is missed by both sides of the climate debate.

    Demise–NOT!

    The humorist Mark Twain is credited with saying, “The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.”  One can make the same case about fossil fuels.

    According to one source, today there are 1.446 billion motor vehicles on the planet.  Reportedly, just under 284 million are registered in the United States.  Our ‘share’ represents less than 20 % of the global fossil fueled propelled transportation.  Note that this does not include aerospace and the multitude of critical uses of carbon based feedstocks.

    According to the US Energy Information Administration, only 12% of energy was provided by renewables in 2021.  Fossil fuels in aggregate provided 79% of the basket of energy sources.  According to another credible data provider, “The share of wind and solar is rising constantly (+1 point in 2021), reaching 10.7% of the global power mix.”

    This slow growth is over approximately 20 years.

    When the wind does not blow, sun does not shine or solar panels are covered with snow, power comes from dependable fossil fuels.  Moreover, according to experts, none of this linear climate change political response will most likely make a difference anyway.

    Energy Transformation is an uninvestable amount with uncertain returns.  In other words, high and undocumented risk.  So what are we doing?

    How is Your Organization Managing the Risk associated with the Energy Transformation?

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.

    “People fail to get along because they fear each other; they fear each other because they don’t know each other; they don’t know each other because they have not communicated with each other.” (Martin Luther King speech at Cornell College, 1962).  For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.

    For more information regarding climate change models, check out Bjorn Lomborg ands his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give us a shout.

  • Innovation: The Key to the Global Future

    Innovation: The Key to the Global Future

    Henry Ford, the Founder of Ford Motor Company is famously attributed to this statement.  “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.”  In other words, most of us think linearly.

    One wonders if this line of reasoning is the best way during the current situation.  Perhaps, non-linear mindsets are more appropriate.

    Challenges

    Currently, many define an existential threat as Climate Change.  Additionally, the global economy, the War in Ukraine, bad actors and other ills make the daily news.  We are also told the time is of the essence.  However, it appears the window will close before the appropriate linear responses can come online.

    As the pandemic unfolded in early 2020, we penned a piece on the role innovation would play addressing the global scourge. We put forth some points we believed salient at the time such as:

    • The rise of remote work
    • The ability to scale quickly, i.e., vaccines, ventilators, et. al.
    • Changes in Clinical Trial protocols

    From the same blog, this pundit has long advocated that, “the use of knowledge enabled by technology can reduce project cycle time dramatically.  It can also significantly reduce project cost as well.”

    As we look back on that period, the collective global ‘we’ accomplished a lot.  A plethora of useful materials were developed and published by all manner Subject Matter Experts (SME) as well as those with ‘life knowledge.’  We chose to capture and repost materials (Covid-19 Business Continuity Resources) that could of use to those business executives struggling with work force issues.  These materials remain available.

    Regrettable, the term SCIENCE was terribly misused, including by medical professionals and professional scientists, all of whom should have known better.  This discussion is further developed in our blog, They Blinded Me with Science.   For interested readers, the piece develops the concepts of science and pseudo-science as well as a brief methodology all can use to help them assess what they are being told about major issues.

    Actual Science has moved humanity out of the caves and into our modern world.  Likely, it can help us address current and future global challenges.  The proven innovative use of the Scientific Method is one path forward.

    SpaceX – NASA

    Elon Musk is in the news for a number of reasons.  He is perhaps one of the best know billionaires.  In the opinion of this pundit, the partnership between his company SpaceX and NASA appears to be one of the most productive Public-Private Partnerships (PPP).  Perhaps this good or best practice could be emulated by others seeking new ways to innovate.

    Realistic Energy Transition

    Energy Transition is all the rage with all manner or organization jumping on board.  Somewhat reminds me of the late 1990s dot.com era.  According to Wikipedia, after the ensuring bust, “the NASDAQ-100 had dropped to 1,114, down 78% from its peak.”  Makes one wonder that this might not be the first rodeo for the latest ‘change the world shinny object.’

    Previously, we noted that the replacement of a major highway ramp in Houston, TX USA is slated to take two years.  Additionally, according to McKinsey, “The goal is to install 500,000 public chargers—publicly accessible charging stations compatible with all vehicles and technologies—nationwide by 2030.”  Message: infrastructure development takes a certain amount of time.

    Also from McKinsey, “Capital spending on physical assets for energy and land-use systems in the net-zero transition between 2021 and 2050 would amount to about $275 trillion, or $9.2 trillion per year on average, an annual increase of as much as $3.5 trillion from today.  To put this increase in comparative terms, the $3.5 trillion is approximately equivalent, in 2020, to half of global corporate profits, one-quarter of total tax revenue, and 7 percent of household spending.”

    As of this writing the global stock markets appear to be in freefall.  Some believe, including this author that a Recession is imminent.  This begs the obvious.  How will this linear effort be paid for and what will be the return on this huge investment?

    There must be a better way.

    Innovate, Innovate, Innovate

    In his recent book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet noted climate change advocate, Bjorn Lomborg expresses concern regarding linear type scenarios and investments being made reduces climate change to Net Zero.

    He argues that regardless of efforts made such as described herein, we will not defeat global warming.  The temperature will rise anyway.

    If this is the case, then the ROI from a $275 trillion dollar commitment may in fact be negative.  This might spell economic disaster at a sustained level.

    Lomborg makes the case that innovation is key.  His perspective seems to be more on university led research supported by governments.  There is a role for government to fun basic research and many have for decades.

    Entrepreneurs have been advancing humankind for hundreds of years.  With proper market signals, we can expect a new generation to rise to the occasion addressing the energy transition and ultimately climate change.

    The author is aware of a number of ‘Green’ efforts underway to encourage the development of new commercial technologies.  While not advocating for investment in an Incubator or Accelerator, it seems reasonable that start-up organizations addressing these challenges be encouraged.

    What Role Does Innovation Play in Your Firm’s Approach to Climate Change?.

    For More Information

    Please note, RRI does not endorse or advocate the links to any third-party materials herein.  They are provided for education and entertainment only.

    The author’s credentials in this field are available on his LinkedIn page.

    Disclaimer, the author has no personal or business relationship with Bjorn Lomborg or his publications other than reading and commenting on his latest book, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

    For those start-up firms addressing energy challenges, the author is a member of Global Energy Mentors which provide no-cost mentoring services from energy experts.  If interested, check it out and give us a shout.

    For more information on Cross Cultural Engagement, check out our Cross Cultural Serious Game.  You can contact this author as well.